Saturday 1st June - Derby Day

rossom

2.00 Doncaster

Livia’s Dream 14/1

Livia’s Dream races here off a mark of 76 which is 5lb below her rating on the AW but I think Ed Walker’s 4 year old is just as good if not better on turf and I think she’s got a superb chance of landing this on her seasonal reappearance. Ed Walker’s filly had a largely progressive season last year winning twice including on her reappearance and I certainly don’t think her improvement has stopped yet. Livia’s Dream made a winning handicap debut off a mark of 68 at Windsor on her first start as a 3 year old when landing a bit of a touch in the process last June under a fine ride by William Buick but disappointed on her next start on unsuitable soft ground. She then landed another gambled off a mark of 72 upped to 12f on the AW in a race that has worked out well with the 3rd home winning his next 3 starts. After again disappointing on soft ground, she was a bit out of her depth in a Listed race at Lingfield (although not totally outclassed) before she ran an absolute blinder when going down by a neck at Kempton back in November off a mark of 79. Under Graham Lee, she travelled like a dream that day and was going so well that she probably hit the front too soon which looked her undoing in the end. She disappointed on her final start when favourite but was put away for the winter after that and her trainer has given favourable reports on his website recently. Her turf mark of 76 is 5lb below her mark on the all weather but I think two runs on unsuitably soft ground have contributed to that assessment and judged on her win at Windsor and Maiden form as a 2 year old I think she handles turf as good if not better than the AW and she clearly looks feasibly treated. Moreover, I think this progressive filly has more improvement left in her and I’m very confident that she’s well capable of winning off her current mark on a going day. Apparently in great form at home, Livia’s Dream has actually missed two engagements already this year with soft ground not suiting but I think it’s well worth mentioning that the two jockeys booked were William Buick and Richard Hughes which I think says an awful lot about her perceived chance by the yard. With those two on duty at Epsom, Tom McLaughlin takes the ride on this filly who clearly goes very well fresh and I think a massive run is on the card. I’m very wary about Keith Reveley’s Swinging Sultan who ran out an easy winner on handicap debut and he’s sure to be tough to beat with a 7lb rise seeming lenient (well worth a saver and RFC) but I think Livia’s Dream looks overpriced and I think she’s going to run a very big race.

I also put up 3.30 Musselburgh Esteaming 11/2 when winning the last day and think he has a superb chance of following up. Write up to follow.

rossom

3.45 Doncaster

Lutine Bell 20/1

I don’t think any selection I’ve ever made will give me as much joy as this one if Lutine Bell can land this and I don’t think there is a horse in training who deserves a win as much as this 6 year old. His last win came way back in November 2010 on his stable debut for Mike Murphy and on so many occasions since then he has ran some absolute blinders without getting his head in front. The handicapper has given him a massive chance now dropping him 6lb in 2 runs this year to a mark of 82 and I think it is very interesting that blinkers, which were a mainstay during at the start of his career for Mike Murphy, are reapplied for the first time since July 2011. Despite not winning in an absolute age, there is absolutely nothing wrong with this notoriously slow starter’s attitude but his hold up style makes him very hard to win with. He bumped into the incredibly well handicapped Sirius Prospect off a mark of 94 over this C+D back in 2011 with that rival winning off 88 before winning his next 3 starts and he’s been unfortunate on a number of occasions to bump into good things. Looking closer to now, he ran many fine races in defeat last season and he again bumped into a very good horse over this track and trip last August off a mark of 87. Under John Fahy, Lutine Bell surged down the near side with a flying run but unfortunately for him the unexposed and talented Go Dutch made a race winning run on the other side of the track to score by 3/4L but the pair were 3.5L clear of rest of the field. He followed that up with a fine 3rd at Kempton behind stablemate Chapter And Verse off a mark of 92 9 days later before running midfield on his final two starts last year. He’s had two runs so far this year with his seasonal debut coming in a race not run to suit whilst his latest effort saw him tackle unsuitably heavy ground but as a result of those efforts he’s fallen back to a mark of 82 which is the lowest he’s been in the handicap since his last win and hopefully the reapplied blinkers can make the difference to his chances tomorrow. Lutine Bell seems to go extremely well over the straight course at Doncaster with two fine runs over 6f in addition to his two aforementioned 2nds over this C+D and if no rain comes he should have his ideal ground. Martin Dwyer takes the ride having been on board once before back in 2011 and seemed to get on well with him that day when finishing a staying on 4th and he is a fine jockey to have at towards the bottom of the weights. Drawn in stall 3, I’d expect the field to race down the centre of the track but there is a lot of pace drawn low which will suit Lutine Bell if they break into two groups. If getting luck in running, I think Lutine Bell has a massive, massive chance of winning this and I will have never been as happy to see a horse win if Lutine Bell can gain what would be a richly deserved and elusive success.

fangee

The above selection LUTINE BELL is shortening like F*ck everywhere. I got 14's with skybet less than half an hour ago - now 10's. PP currently best priced 12's and as low as 9's elsewhere.

Slattsy

Moth Moth Moth

MoscowFlyer

Ruler of the World will be my small E/W bet in the big one.

Think JOB picked the wrong one

Apparently Ladbrokes are gonna offer 7/4 on Dawn Approach early in the morning so if you are gonna bet on him you may as well wait until then to get that kinda price.

Gringo180

Slattsy wrote: »

Moth Moth Moth

Hahahaha

rossom

With regards The Derby, I think most people will agree that if Dawn Approach stays he wins and I think the 7/4 that Ladbrokes go tomorrow is an excellent price and has tempted me in to backing him. Will have a small each way on Galileo Rock who is all stamina and should appreciate the step up in trip.

the groutch

too much racing tomorrow, so will sit back with my Derby bets (Galileo Rock @ 66/1 & Festive Cheer @ 40/1) and enjoy the race.

Gringo180

If Galileo Rock wins the Derby ill eat me hat lads.

tryfix

rossom wrote: »

With regards The Derby, I think most people will agree that if Dawn Approach stays he wins and I think the 7/4 that Ladbrokes go tomorrow is an excellent price and has tempted me in to backing him. Will have a small each way on Galileo Rock who is all stamina and should appreciate the step up in trip.

Libertarian is the most stoutly bred of them all. Given his dosage index of .65, winning the Dante was quite a performance from him. Him, then Galileo Rock .78 and then Festive cheer .80 are the ones most likely to improve for the trip. They're well worth keeping on the right side of considering the performances of the stoutly bred outsiders in the Oaks today. Ist Talent .90 and 3rd The Lark .73.

EDIT : I tell a lie, Mirsaale .74 is up there with them.

mailburner

MoscowFlyer wrote: »

Ruler of the World will be my small E/W bet in the big one.

Think JOB picked the wrong one

Apparently Ladbrokes are gonna offer 7/4 on Dawn Approach early in the morning so if you are gonna bet on him you may as well wait until then to get that kinda price.

please let me get up in time or just think about it when I do get up
thought it was gonna be 6/4 with them
what a gift lads

ste2010

Nap Worchester 2.25 NAP Ambion Wood 3rd time over fences on decent ground over 2m7. Ideal trip and I think on his 3rd time of asking he could win this very easily. Interesting in the race McCoy is riding ace fighter pilot even with a McManus horse in the race. With the bookings alone you'd have to think ace fighter pilot has a chance however I think Ambion wood will prove his class tomorrow and destroy the field.

Wild diamond Hexham 4.20 Difficult race to pick a horse given none have run over hurdles. a statement within itself Tim Vaughan is traveling nearly 400miles with this horse only to the race id be happy enough to take a punt on the back of that as this has been a recurring sign for winners in the past. His stable aren't in great form at the moment but this lad ill be taking a punt on.

Other to note Colm Murphy and shark have one runner between the both of them on both cards

bohsman

Mirsaale, Libertarian, Galileo Rock 1-2-3 please. Not asking for much. Would settle for Mirsaale placing really.

jimjamcos

4.00 Epsom

I've been flip-flopping like fuck on the Derby. Was going to go against DA with one of the special offers and get my money back if he won but struggling to confidently pick one from the rest of field tbh. I really like Mars but can't in a month of Sundays see him beating Dawn Approach. I know all the experts are saying you shouldn't take a short price about a horse who might not stay the trip but he's undoubtedly the best horse in the race and Ronan Whelan (rides DA in his homework) said he doesn't see the trip being any issue at a Dublin Racing Club evening during the week. Just can't back BOM on what he's shown and struggling to separate the foreigners (Fabre has small stamina doubts about his too). I like ROTW too as he's guaranteed to stay. I think Mars may have a little bit more toe than himself and BOM though.

I'm more than happy to take 7/4 (if I can get on in morning) about DA who's only danger is himself. He stays, he wins. I'd rather bet on him staying than stick pins on the rest of the field.

Dawn Approach win

Mars small ew


I'll be putting DA and St Nic (nigh-on unbeatable going left-handed on good) in a big double and a treble with my last pick too.


4.45 Doncaster

Henry Cecil runs what looks a nice horse in Sea Meets Sky. She won her maiden a few weeks back with a powerful run in the last 300 yards despite being very green. The 3rd (Fersah) and 4th (Sharqawiyah) from that race won next time out. Sea Meets Sky showed a good attitude in her maiden and I'd expect big improvement in Cecil's filly for the experience. Has an entry in the Ribblesdale. 3/1

rossom

3.30 Musselburgh

Esteaming 11/2

I put up David Barron's son of Derby winning Sir Percy Esteaming on his last start when he shed Maiden tag in extremely impressive fashion at York's Dante meeting a couple of weeks ago and I think a 6lb rise is more than fair as he relished the step up to 12f for the first time. Formerly with Mick Channon, Esteaming was a little frustrating as he finished runner up on 3 of his 5 starts for his former trainer but a considerable amount of improvement was felt to be made from him as he was picked up for 36,000 Guineas at Doncaster's November sale last year as he was sent to David Barron. Esteaming made his handicap debut for Barron off a mark of 74 at Beverley over 10f in April where he caught the eye as he blocked at a crucial time before making inroads in the final furlong to be beaten about 6L but and he was put in an even more eye catching display at Pontefract last month on his 2nd start for Barron. Dropped 2lb to a mark 72 from his seasonal reappearance, Esteaming looked full of running at the finish as he blocked off twice at crucial stages on his last run as he met trouble under today's pilot Philp Makin as he had to settle for a 4L beaten 5th over the 1m2f trip. He proved those two eye catching display very much had substance when winning extremely impressive in a competitive handicap at the Dante meeting a couple of weeks ago off 72 by 1.25L in soft ground when relishing the step up to 1m4f. Held up in the rear of the field, Esteaming was still towards the back when swinging into the home straight but he made very smooth progress on the outside of the field under Philip Makin. Inside the final two furlongs, Makin found himself in front still travelling extremely well and he had no choice to press on as he quickened in good style. Despite hanging violently left, he was still much too good for his rivals and he scored in good fashion. The 5th home Chocala has already gone on to score impressively off the same mark (probably came on for the run) to boost the form and I think that race is going to work out extremely well in time. Although he definitely handles a quick surface, Esteaming perhaps was suited by the soft ground at York which puts a bit of doubt into your mind but I think a 6lb rise for that success is very lenient and I have no doubt that Esteaming is a better horse than his mark of 78. Another slight concern is that he hung left which will be against him on this right handed track but Makin knows about this and will be sure to prevent this if possible. This valuable contest has attracted a very decent field which is no surprise and quite a few horses rate as significant dangers but I definitely believe Esteaming is far enough ahead of the handicapper to deal with these rivals. There seems to be a substantial amount of pace in the race which looks ideal for this strong travelling hold up horse and the faster they go the better for him. David Barron continues in fine form and I think its going to take an extremely well handicapped horse to defy Esteaming today.

4.45 Doncaster

Sea Meets Sky 3/1

Sir Henry Cecil doesn't have an awful lot of debutant winners and those that do are generally well above average and I very much think the same can be said about this well bred 3 year old filly. Sea Meets Sky was successful on her only career start to date at Ascot over 10f when she came from another Parish when the penny dropped late on to get up and score by a comfortable neck in the end in what was a very taking debut for which she should have absolutely learnt loads. That form has strong substance with the 3rd and the 4th winning subsequently. After watching that race, I immediately thought she'd win the Ribblesdale and I firmly believe she'll go on to win this event on route to that race in 3 weeks time. This looks a competitive race pitched in against some talented looking boys but I think its going to take a very good horse to prevent Sea Meets Sky from success.

6.40 Newcastle

Relentless Harry 4/1

Purely given the size of the field, it may well pay to go each way about George Baker's charge but I think he's going to take a substantial amount of beating in this contest. I remember watching Baker's 'Trainer File' with Racing UK from 2011 a few months ago where he stated that he hoped the then 2 year old could be as good as stablemate Belgian Bill (rated 101) and although he hasn't quite hit those heights yet this 4 year old has had a lot of niggling problems in his career and he took a massive step in the right direction with an extremely impressive victory 8 days ago off a mark of 66 . On what was his 9th career start and 2nd run back from a break, Relentless Harry was anchored at the rear of the field by today's pilot Pat Cosgrave over 7f at Yarmouth and he made incredibly smooth progress to sit just off the lead on the bit. Cosgrave asked his mount to quicken inside the final furlong as he shot to the lead to score by a comfortable 2.75L to land a gamble in the process. I think the handicapper has been very lenient in only putting him up 7lb to a mark of 73 and if in the same mood as he was just over a week ago I don't see anything living with him in this Class 5 contest.

rossom

8.10 Newcastle

Enchanted Garden 7/1

One final bet as Malcolm Jefferson's Enchanted Garden looks a fascinating contender on his handicap debut off a mark of 60 upped to 2m judged on his bumper form last season. Enchanted Garden ran a couple of blinders on his first two starts in bumpers (one at Newcastle) when finishing runner up to two useful sorts in the shape of Jim Goldie's Caledonia who was 3rd in the Grade 2 Bumper at Aintree and Phil Kirby's Just Cameron before scoring at the 3rd time of asking in a decent contest at Sedgefield back in December. He then ran another fine race under a penalty at Sedgefield in March when beaten 7L in a race that has seen the front two score again subsequently before running 3 times quickly in Maidens over 12f in April/May and he shaped much more encouragingly on his last start 2 weeks ago when a not knocked about 5th in a race where nothing came from off the pace. Judged on his 4 very good bumper runs, a mark of 60 looks potentially lenient for his handicap debut and its no surprise to see this stout stayer upped to 2 miles now switched to handicaps. Malcolm Jefferson has his horses in good form and with Freddie Tylicki taking the ride Enchanted Garden could prove well handicapped in what looks a pretty average contest on paper.

mailburner

just got the 7/4 on da from laddies online

longshotvalue

Epson 4:50


First Avenue gave his best hurdles run of his career in winning the Imperial Cup at Sandown earlier this year, which has to show him in very good form. He has some excellent course form which is vital around here. He was also a good 2nd to Universal of 4lbs higher mark here last year of a similar break to the one he has had now and that horse has gone on to much better things since. It looks as if he has a great chance of this mark if he can carry his hurdles improvement trough to his flat form. He is 20 on Betfair at the moment at that look about double the price I would have expected him to be. I’m also going with a saver bet on another with great course form in Right Step. He is down to a very good mark on his best form and has looked lately as if a return might not be far away. Given his preference for this course id hope that this race has been his target for a while and 11/1 looks value


1 Point win First Avenue 20 Betfair
1 Point win Right Step 11/1 various

ste2010

Here's my first effort at tipping on the flat.

Oil strike 6/1 each way lingfield 6.55
best drawed at stall 9 and nicely weighted. His course form reads well on turf with a second off a much higher rating on course from stall 8. Trainers only runner at lingfield and has travelled 250m to the track. Michael Easterby is in cracking form at the moment with 25% strike rate last 14 days returning 28/1 profit.

longshotvalue

3:15 Epson

Some of the ones I had in mind for this race are probably too short at the moment like Captain Dunne and Stone of Folca, but aside from that there looks to be an overreaction to Judge & Jury’s last poor run at York. He started out this year in good form with a very decent 3rd at York behind Ancient Cross and it’s possible that the next race came too soon at only 9 days later. He has some decent race form in that he was 4th in this race 2 years ago of this mark, and will go on any kind of ground. In general he is a consistent horse and 25/1 with 5 places on bet253 looks a great bet.



1 Point EW 25/1 Bet365 5 places.

MoscowFlyer

I have a few trackers today.

Just gonna name them.

DASHING DAVID - (Doncaster, 15:10) 25/1

LIGHTNING CLOUD - (Doncaster, 15:45) 9/1

MADRASA - (Doncaster, 17:20) 5/1

MUTAFAAKIR - (Newcastle, 18:40) 8/1

Slattsy

I dreamt Mars won the Derby lads. Get on.

Starting to lean towards ROTW.

carmanard

Took some fancier prices e/w earlier in the week about Ruler Of The World & Chopin for the Derby, so I'm not going in again today. I think Scatter Dice in the 4.50 looks well weighted with Fran Berry taking the ride he's worth an e/w shout. Autspread in the 3.10 at Donny getting weight from everything else should be on the premises, Genuine Quality in the 2.35 at Donny is leaping off the page at me on pedigree. I'm also taking a small e/w punt on Jiroft in the dash at Epsom, has form on softer ground in Italy, he's drawn on the "wrong" side today but I could certainly envisage him snatching a place at big odds....

runman

I'm at mussel borough today. Anything worth backing?

MoscowFlyer

HASHEEM in the 2.55 looks a good thing IMO. 3/1 Fav

Can't see anything troubling it tbh

longshotvalue

Doncaster 3:45

I’m going to go with a couple of small bets here on the 2 top weights here. Both Rex Imperator and Es Que Love have shown inconsistent form in the past but are worth small min bets here as any reproduction of form from either of them should be good enough to have a serious shout here. Rex hacked up in a very decent race at Windsor last year in some style and although he was a bit disappointing after that he is back down to that winning mark. Es Que Love has some very decent form last year of a lot higher marks than this and he did win a decent AW handicap this year of a higher mark than he has today. If Fallon can persuade him to perform to his potential, his big looking price will look very good.


½ Point win Es Que Love 25 Betfair
½ Point win Rex Imperator 24 Betfair

longshotvalue

Epson 3:15



In Addition I’m now going to add Confessional at what looks a very decent price of 18/1 with BetVictor. He has run well in this race in the last 2 years and although he hasn’t set the world on fire this year yet I’m hoping this could be his starting point. He ran some eye-catching races in Pattern Company last year and a repeat of those runs will give him a great shout here.

1 Point EW 18/1 Betvictor

droidman123

Slattsy wrote: »

I dreamt Mars won the Derby lads. Get on.

Starting to lean towards ROTW.

I did rotw meself.

Colonel Sanders

I took some 7/4 Dawn Approach. In two minds whether to lay it off as the max wasn't huge.

UnitedIrishman

Gone for Ruler of the World. Hopefully can perform somewhere close to what Treasure Beach did when he was chinned on the line by Pour Moi after winning at Chester. (albeit beat Nathaniel and not the likes of Havana Beat). Thinking back, don't quite know how TB was 25/1 for the Derby after that.

Hughes is fairly bullish in the RP about Long Awaited chances in the dash, and has a good draw too. Captain Dunne of Confessional would be my idea of a winner in that one though.

Slattsy

BOM out to 7/1 in places - thats huge !

ROTW the only O'Brien horse seeing money, into 7/1 was Ladbrokes - they know !!! :eek:

ShaneU

Don't know if it's been mentioned, but Betfred are doing double the odds if Dawn Approach wins by 5 lengths, triple odds if it wins by 8 lengths or more.

Gringo180

Anybody know will they use Festive Cheer as pacemaker, fancy him to run well as he hasn't got much to find with Ocovango looking through his form, but I wouldn't touch him if he will be used to set the pace.

Ray Mond

Any William hills in Dublin?

mailburner

ShaneU wrote: »

Don't know if it's been mentioned, but Betfred are doing double the odds if Dawn Approach wins by 5 lengths, triple odds if it wins by 8 lengths or more.

not good
only applies if you take sp which will imo be around evens come race time

better on paddy
3 lengths or more 5/2
5 or more 9/2

stuck a few euro on 5 or more for the craic

droidman123

Jiroft caught my eye in the dash.hasnt ran in 273 days but has decent form on the softish ground in listed company.p.power paying 5 places,i took the 25/1 e/w.

Overthelast

The Dash. The fastest 5f in the world. Blink and you'll miss it. Going ew on Taajub, likes Epsom, on a nice mark. Funny, you could finish 10th beaten a length at the finish- mad race. Low draw is a bit of a concern ( big bias for those drawn high)

First & second races Epsom Space Ship & thunder strike.

Havnt a bogs who to back in derby.

luckyeye

Ray Mond wrote: »

Any William hills in Dublin?

Afraid not Ray...used to but i think Boyles took their stores in Ireland back in 2011

luckyeye

droidman123 wrote: »

Jiroft caught my eye in the dash.hasnt ran in 273 days but has decent form on the softish ground in listed company.p.power paying 5 places,i took the 25/1 e/w.

This one caught me eye as well but the draw put me off. Backed Captain Dunne when the draw was announced - got 9's - won this back in '11 off of 105, nice seasonal reappearance (2nd at the Chester meeting) and well in off a mark of 95.

Value is probably gone now mind...generally 6's.

Johner

I'm backing Space Ship. Come on you little slut.

Slattsy

Went for Spencer here, i like seeing a bit of €€€€ for a Cumani horse.

mailburner

runman wrote: »

I'm at mussel borough today. Anything worth backing?

the fav in the first
only around evens though but should hack up

Johner

Ah **** off.

Gringo180

Johner wrote: »

Ah **** off.

Gave the horse way too much to do, very poor ride :rolleyes:

Colonel Sanders

‘The Thoroughbred exists because its selection has depended, not on experts, technicians, or zoologists, but on a piece of wood: the winning post of the Epsom Derby’ - Frederico Tesio

Johner

Gringo180 wrote: »

Gave the horse way too much to do, very poor ride :rolleyes:

He's the ultimate sack licker. What a bollox.

Johner

SEEUALLINCOPPERS is Gary O'Briens tip today. If it wins lets all go to coppers.

byronbay2

Will definitely be laying Dawn Approach today. Bit disappointed with the drift (currently 2.44 to lay on BF) but anticipating his price to shorten in the half-hour before the race. Even at the current price, I think DA is a great lay (fnarr! fnarr!).

Slattsy

Ifwecan

MoscowFlyer

Holy god, get this man of Channel 4. Boring me to tears.

BQQ

runman wrote: »

I'm at mussel borough today. Anything worth backing?

Chookie Royale in the last.

Trainer has been banging in the winners recently. His only runner of the day.