Unemployment total falls by 9.3% in Q1

Spurtacus

If these figures are correct I'd expect every minister to be singing from the rooftops.
http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/unemployment-total-falls-by-93-29308476.html

The percentage of people out of work has dropped from 14.1% to 13.7% over the first three months of this year, the Central Statistics Office (CSO) said.
Its report found unemployment decreased by 29,900, a fall of 9.3%, in the year to the first quarter of 2013, bringing the total figure down to 292,000.
The CSO also said there was an increase in employment of 1.1% or 20,500 over the same period.

I think these figures far exceeded eveyone's expectations.
That's lifted some of the strain off the social protection bill & tax receipts should be up in time also.
Really hope this isn't some anomaly & the trend continues.
10% would be a great psychological barrier to break.

ardmacha

These figures are rather misleadingly presented, percentages of percentages are always a bit tricky. The increase in employment is definitely of value though.
12 quarters (3 years) of such employment growth would put things to rights.

Chips Lovell

Yep, total employment increasing in three consecutive quarters is probably the most significant figure here.

Max Powers

im skeptical of anything this or any govt says. Is this due to emigration, job bridge schemes, CE schemes etc. Doesnt feel like unemployment is going down in Waterford city where the rate is 25%, 20% in South east region, twice the figures talked about on a national level.

Godge

I have been saying for a while on here (and being ridiculed for it) that all of the signals are showing that pay levels and employment are on the rise in the private sector.

Unfortunately, myopic public-sector haters tend to drown out the message.

This really is good news and well done to the government for providing the environment to ensure that things have not got worse.

Villa05

http://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/releasespublications/documents/labourmarket/2013/qnhs_q12013.pdf

Our youth continue to suffer disproportionately

The largest annual increases in employment were in the 45-54 (+12,500 or +3.2%) and 35-44 (+12,500 or +2.5%) age groups. The increases in employment in the older age groups were offset by the decreases recorded in the 25-34(-11,800 or -2.3%), 20-24 (-2,800 or -2.2%) and the 15-19 (-1,200 or -4.5%) age groups.

Full time jobs have dropped significantly

Full-time employment fell by 3,700 or 0.3% in the year to Q1 2013. This was off-set by an increase in part-time employment of 24,200 or 5.6% over the year.

There is a caution in the report about the increase in employment in the sector showing the largest gain

The largest rates of increase were recorded in the Agriculture, forestry and fishing (+19.5% or 15,700) and the Professional, scientific and technical (+6.0% or 5,900) sectors. In the case of the Agriculture, forestry and fishing sector it can be noted that estimates of employment in this sector have shown to be sensitive to sample changes over time. Given the continued introduction of the sample based on the 2011 Census of Population as outlined in the note on the front page of this release, particular caution is warranted in the interpretation of the trend in this sector at this time. See tables 2a, 2b and figure 2.

Villa05

Also worth noting the regional Breakdown in Employment

Last 12 months Q1 2012 to Q1 2013
Border - increase of 2,300
Midland - increase of 2,100
West - increase of 4,500
Dublin - increase of 5,600
Mid-East - decrease of 8,200
Mid-West decrease of 3,900
South-East increase of 5,200
South -West increase of 10,500

washman3

2 words can explain all this,

(1) Australia
(2) Canada

Anything else is pure and utter tripe...:mad:

zl1whqvjs75cdy

Max Powers wrote: »

im skeptical of anything this or any govt says. Is this due to emigration, job bridge schemes, CE schemes etc. Doesnt feel like unemployment is going down in Waterford city where the rate is 25%, 20% in South east region, twice the figures talked about on a national level.

Good thing its the CSO saying it and not the government then.

creedp

washman3 wrote: »

2 words can explain all this,

(1) Australia
(2) Canada

Anything else is pure and utter tripe...:mad:

Increases in employment have nothing to do with Canada or Australia. Decreases in unemployment could however be attributed to incrased emigration.

gowley

creedp wrote: »

Increases in employment have nothing to do with Canada or Australia. Decreases in unemployment could however be attributed to incrased emigration.

where is the logic in this. if 2,000 unemployed people move away to get work the percentage of unemployed people will decrease because there are 2,000 less unemployed. percentage has dropped so it is entirely possible that immigration of some unemployed has contributed to the drop

ardmacha

where is the logic in this. if 2,000 unemployed people move away to get work the percentage of unemployed people will decrease because there are 2,000 less unemployed.

Where is the logic in your reply? Employment went up. Emigration does not achieve this!

gowley

ardmacha wrote: »

Where is the logic in your reply? Employment went up. Emigration does not achieve this!

apologies . i misread the post.

AlmightyCushion

ardmacha wrote: »

Where is the logic in your reply? Employment went up. Emigration does not achieve this!

Emigration actually causes employment to decrease. If 1,000 people leave Ireland tomorrow, that's 1,000 less people who need to eat, buy clothes etc.

ardmacha wrote: »

These figures are rather misleadingly presented, percentages of percentages are always a bit tricky. The increase in employment is definitely of value though.
12 quarters (3 years) of such employment growth would put things to rights.

They aren't really that tricky, people just need to learn the difference between percentage and percentage points. Sadly, not a lot of people seem to.

Any way, this is great news. Nice to see that the unemployment rate has dropped below 14%. It's been above that for a long time.

Cookie_Monster

ardmacha wrote: »

Where is the logic in your reply? Employment went up. Emigration does not achieve this!

It can increase the percentage, but not the hard number of jobs.

If there are (for simplicities sake) 10,000 people in ireland and 7,000 employed, that's 70% employment. If 1,000 leave then that becomes 7/9 or 77.7% employment.
It's easy to mess with percentages.

Godge

Cookie_Monster wrote: »

It can increase the percentage, but not the hard number of jobs.

If there are (for simplicities sake) 10,000 people in ireland and 7,000 employed, that's 70% employment. If 1,000 leave then that becomes 7/9 or 77.7% employment.
It's easy to mess with percentages.

Yes, but read the report, the actual number employed went up! So using your example, the 7,000 became 7,500 employed

jobeenfitz

Could it be a factor that Social Protection are changing policy of paying welfare benefits directly to bank accounts and instead people have to turn up and collect payments at post office every week?

hfallada

I think the economy is improving as the congestion in Dublin city has gotten worse and worse in the last 6 months. When I was going to school during the boom years of 2006 it took 90 mins on a bus for a 5 km journey. But mid 2010 it only took 10 mins at most. Now its back to about 50 mins.

I know that isnt in anyway scientific but more congestion generally means more HGVs on the road and people going to work

femur61

Even though my husband has been unemployed for about two months he won't blame the present government. He and I do believe the government are doing a better job than the previous administration (can't bring myself to say their name). People blame the government for the woes we have but in reality they had been given a country that was in a dreadful state, the corruption, the lies, the deceit. Both off us have lived in various countries and see that some sectors are spoilt and were bought in the previous elections.

Unfortunately I don't think the figures are the true reality, my husband is self employed so he can't go on the live register. I agree with the Waterford poster they have been really unfortunate.

Halloween Jack

femur61 wrote: »

Even though my husband has been unemployed for about two months he won't blame the present government. He and I do believe the government are doing a better job than the previous administration (can't bring myself to say their name). People blame the government for the woes we have but in reality they had been given a country that was in a dreadful state, the corruption, the lies, the deceit. Both off us have lived in various countries and see that some sectors are spoilt and were bought in the previous elections.

Unfortunately I don't think the figures are the true reality, my husband is self employed so he can't go on the live register. I agree with the Waterford poster they have been really unfortunate.

Your husband can sign on for ja or jb, if he was/is self employed. Send him in to your Local Office.

http://trueeconomics.blogspot.com.au/2013/05/3152013-part-time-v-full-time.html

In Q1 2013, full-time jobs stood at 1,391,100 which is down on Q4 2012 when these counted 1,398,700 (-7,700 q/q change) and is down on Q1 2012 when the full-time jobs counted 1,394,800 (-3,700 y/y). This is also down on Q1 2011 when full-time jobs numbered 1,401,800 (a net loss of 10,700 full-time jobs in 2 years).

Part-time jobs rises accounted for all, repeat all, increases in Q1 2013: these increased to 454,400 in Q1 2013 from 450,200 in Q4 2012 (+4,200 q/q) and were up on 430,200 (+24,200 y/y) on Q1 2012. This is goodish, as - obviously - it is better that people are working at least part-time. However, it is simply incorrect to claim that "most of the gains in employment have been in part-time rather than full-time jobs" when there were DECREASES in full-time jobs.

More info in the link about underemployment and how part time employment who were not underemployed decreased also

Bullseye1

Bit early to be pitching the tents and uncorking the champagne. Unless of course you have already emigrated to Australia and Canada and are doing well. This country is light years away from doing well.

Kristopherus

Bullseye1 wrote: »

Bit early to be pitching the tents and uncorking the champagne. Unless of course you have already emigrated to Australia and Canada and are doing well. This country is light years away from doing well.

Perhaps not light years away, but there will be a second 0 in the year before we reach the summit.

igorbiscan

Also,anecdotally, lots of people are being pushed onto short term educational,re-training,upskilling courses while in reality they are still unemployed.A bit a trickery to massage the figures.
However,at least its not all doom,some progress at least seems to be in the making..

Phoebas

The number of people who are happy to cheerlead bad news or try to spin positive signs into negative ones is depressing.

I wish they would piss off to Australia or Canada.

jobeenfitz

Phoebas wrote: »

The number of people who are happy to cheerlead bad news or try to spin positive signs into negative ones is depressing.

I wish they would piss off to Australia or Canada.

Don't agree with my opinion, then get out of the country.

Phoebas

jobeenfitz wrote: »

Don't agree with my opinion, then get out of the country.

You've illustrated the point admirably.

Bullseye1

Phoebas wrote: »

The number of people who are happy to cheerlead bad news or try to spin positive signs into negative ones is depressing.

I wish they would piss off to Australia or Canada.

I've no problem giving credit were it is due. At the moment no one deserves credit YET. Maybe when the term is up and things are better then they will get credit.

One could also say that people coming on here praising the government are no more than spin-doctors. We need some balance.

Constantin puts it quite clearly as I quoted above.
For those who can`t see past spin the facts are:

Full time employment is DOWN.
Part time and not underemployed employment is DOWN.

And this is before we take any schemes like jobbridge/fas training into account.

Phoebas

Phoebas wrote: »

The number of people who are happy to cheerlead bad news or try to spin positive signs into negative ones is depressing.

I wish they would piss off to Australia or Canada.

Wow, the "don`t rock the boat" attitude again. Hardly anyone stood up and questioned the wide range of idiots who day after day on national tv, radio, newspapers and online claimed house prices only went up.

Maybe we wouldn`t have had the crash if all the people with these so called "negative" view points left the country.

Such genius comes from the same thinking that believes thinking happy thoughts can reverse a recession.

Phoebas

^^ That 'creative extrapolation' course you took is paying off.

RATM

hfallada wrote: »

I think the economy is improving as the congestion in Dublin city has gotten worse and worse in the last 6 months. When I was going to school during the boom years of 2006 it took 90 mins on a bus for a 5 km journey. But mid 2010 it only took 10 mins at most. Now its back to about 50 mins.

I know that isnt in anyway scientific but more congestion generally means more HGVs on the road and people going to work

Port Tunnel was opened in 2006, taking 95% of HGV's out off the quays, which is why your city centre journey decreased.

I'm not sure how a 5km bus journey would take 10 minutes, especially given the frequency of Dublin bus stops. I'm not sure how the same 5km journey would take 90 minutes either- you could walk 5km in 60 minutes so why would anyone get a bus that is going to take 50% longer than it takes to walk ?

washman3

Phoebas wrote: »

The number of people who are happy to cheerlead bad news or try to spin positive signs into negative ones is depressing.

I wish they would piss off to Australia or Canada.

Well at least you did'nt urge them to do what the great Bertie said a few years ago.!! Remember the 'advice' he offered to the 'cribbers and moaners' when speaking at the CIF conference.
Or maybe you were one of the handpicked audience that day that laughed loudly when he said it.

djpbarry

Bullseye1 wrote: »

Bit early to be pitching the tents and uncorking the champagne. Unless of course you have already emigrated to Australia and Canada and are doing well. This country is light years away from doing well.

I’d love to know what constitutes “doing well”, because from where I’m sitting, the average standard of living in Ireland is pretty damn high.

Deleted User wrote: »

Wow, the "don`t rock the boat" attitude again. Hardly anyone stood up and questioned the wide range of idiots who day after day on national tv, radio, newspapers and online claimed house prices only went up.

Hardly anyone? That’s not what I remember. Every economist with half a brain was screaming from about 2004 onwards that the Irish property market was dangerously over-heated.

Dr Nic

Walk around Limerick city centre and tell me the same thing!!

Where im sitting right now(just outside Toronto), the standard of living is pretty damn high! My equivalent job pays ~ 4x or maybe 5x what i would earn at home. Cars, gas, clothes are cheaper. Food is the same price. Houses i cant say

djpbarry

Dr Nic wrote: »

Where im sitting right now(just outside Toronto), the standard of living is pretty damn high! My equivalent job pays ~ 4x or maybe 5x what i would earn at home. Cars, gas, clothes are cheaper. Food is the same price. Houses i cant say

The recently updated UN Human Development Index ranks Ireland ahead of Canada:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Development_Index#2013_report

ardmacha

My equivalent job pays ~ 4x or maybe 5x what i would earn at home.

There are very few jobs in Toronto that pay multiples of the equivalent job in Dublin. There may be individuals that can secure a job in Toronto that they can't get in Dublin and so improve their prospects, but that isn't the same thing.

Dr Nic

ardmacha wrote: »

There are very few jobs in Toronto that pay multiples of the equivalent job in Dublin. There may be individuals that can secure a job in Toronto that they can't get in Dublin and so improve their prospects, but that isn't the same thing.

There are thousands.

ardmacha

There are thousands.

I'm genuinely interested in examples.

L1011

Dr Nic wrote: »

There are thousands.

Examples.

Dr Nic

Hint is in my name

robp

Dr Nic wrote: »

Hint is in my name

There maybe some jobs as you suggest (although even this might not be completely true as there are some very high earners in Irish private medicine) but quite a lot of these jobs in Canada are in extractive industries which have little parallel in Ireland. Toronto has an urban population of over 5 million. Just like there is more opportunity in London compared to Dublin there is more opportunity in Toronto. Toronto is cheaper then Dublin but not in rent apparently.

sock puppet

Dr Nic wrote: »

Hint is in my name

Ok so doctor is one (allegedly, I don't think anyone with half a brain would believe you). So what are the other 1,999+ jobs?

Dr Nic

sock puppet wrote: »

Ok so doctor is one (allegedly, I don't think anyone with half a brain would believe you). So what are the other 1,999+ jobs?

I didnt say field, just jobs.

This is not a medical thread but prepare for the brain drain from irish medicine in the next few years (its already here)... terrible short sightedness

robp

Dr Nic wrote: »

I didnt say field, just jobs.

This is not a medical thread but prepare for the brain drain from irish medicine in the next few years (its already here)... terrible short sightedness

Nothing new, to be a specialist an overseas training has always been desirable. The only scandal is their irish course fees are often highly subsidised. Conditions here are probably well below par but salaries aren't even though the end result our health service is not up to scratch. See much less medics earn in Spain taking into account cost of living. Spain being of note for it's above average health service, well ahead of Canada and Ireland.

Bandana boy

Dr Nic wrote: »

Walk around Limerick city centre and tell me the same thing!!

Where im sitting right now(just outside Toronto), the standard of living is pretty damn high! My equivalent job pays ~ 4x or maybe 5x what i would earn at home. Cars, gas, clothes are cheaper. Food is the same price. Houses i cant say

Canada is known as paying its doctors well, it pays a factor bigger than nearly any other country but it is not 4x or 5x but probably 2x would be about right.

This though is a factor of supply vs demand eventually this will be rectified and salaries will come more in line with the rest of the world

Your point exaggerated as it is bears some truth for Doctors but not across all sectors
In fact you have the exact same in reverse for other fields of employment.

Canada and Australia have more employment opportunities now than Ireland and that might continue for some time but I think blaming some sort of lack of foresight on the current administration shows a complete lack of understanding of the issues facing this country.

In the main positive numbers are positive ,and while things are a long way from being good in this country they are better. We would all prefer things to be faster but going in the right direction is going in the right direction and we should all be at least optimistic that things could be better in the not too distant future.

L1011

Dr Nic wrote: »

I didnt say field, just jobs.

This is not a medical thread but prepare for the brain drain from irish medicine in the next few years (its already here)... terrible short sightedness

I work in a non-care role in the medical industry, and there isn't a hope in hell I'd earn 2x in Canada, let alone 5x.

Specialist training is one job, not thousands.

djpbarry

sock puppet wrote: »

Ok so doctor is one (allegedly, I don't think anyone with half a brain would believe you). So what are the other 1,999+ jobs?

There is absolutely no way GPs and/or specialists earn twice as much in Canada as they do in Ireland. In fact, the latest OECD data shows doctors in Ireland to be better paid than their Canadian counterparts.

beeno67

djpbarry wrote: »

There is absolutely no way GPs and/or specialists earn twice as much in Canada as they do in Ireland. In fact, the latest OECD data shows doctors in Ireland to be better paid than their Canadian counterparts.

Link?

carpejugulum

This is good news only if the number of people not in employment didn't increase.
That is the classic accounting trick that has been used in the last few years significantly. The number of truly unemployed people who are able to work is much higher.

djpbarry

beeno67 wrote: »

Link?

You can browse the data here:

http://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?DataSetCode=HEALTH_STAT

carpejugulum wrote: »

This is good news only if the number of people not in employment didn't increase.

It didn't - as stated in the OP, it decreased.