indoor option for cattle in Ireland ????

grazeaway

what with the way the weather has been over the last year is anyone seriously contemplating the zero grazing approach? I remember seeing a few articles of lads doing it over the last few years. Mostly dairy boys but I remember one fella finishing cattle off grass in the shed. I know a few lads around here who have had their cows in a lot over the last year and resorted to using old silage harvesters to cut the grass and draw it in. The land round here would be fairly good so i can imagine it has been worse for lads on heavy ground or on wet land. With cattle having been inside for 6-8 months would another 4 make a huge difference to them? If the housing was extended to say 10 or 12 months and grass was brought to the cattle rather then using silage would fellas see any major difference? I know there would be a higher machinery cost but would the lower infrastructure costs help balance it out, as well as using all of the grass.

The obvious thing would be with slurry storage but as most people have huge tanks nowadays and with improvements in spreading surly it can be spread more often during the year and not just in spring. looking at dairy in europe where much of the cows are indoors or out on a standoff pad would there be better usage of grass and aid expansion as fragmented land and be used with out having to cross roads?

teagasc go on a lot about using a the grazing model for production but its not much good when the grass in trampled into the ground and the fields poached and water logged.

kowtow

grazeaway wrote: »

what with the way the weather has been over the last year is anyone seriously contemplating the zero grazing approach?

We have been giving it some thought as it would allow us, potentially, to achieve 'critical mass' for milking via outside land if we don't wish to be entirely dependent on cheese making.

Although I love to see the cows outside in the sunshine - I'm not sure that housing for an extended period is a bad thing in and of itself, and certainly I think zero grazing has the capacity to extend production off a given area of grass.

We came here from the Alps where small herds of cattle are away from all grazing from October through to May at least and the system seems to be well adapted to it.

What I'm not clear about is how successfully zero grazed grass could be incorporated with - say - a TMR approach, for the part of the year that it was available. It wouldn't replace silage indoors therefore (at least in my mind) so you'd need to have a part "grazing" - whether indoors or out and part TMR system going on.

And whichever way I look at it I cant see zg grass coming into the yard much cheaper than baled silage - there may well be reasons to justify it regardless, yield, cheese flavour (in our case) etc.

Others here, however, are far more qualified to comment than I.

20silkcut

Kowtow could you give a bit further detail on zero grazing versus baled silage.
I would have thought zero grazing is much cheaper than making bales what with all that mowing, shaking, lining up, baling, plastic etc

pakalasa

I know of someone near me who is feeding older bulls indoors with a zero-grazer. Don't know how the costs stack up, but I imagine it's a lot cheaper than baled or pit silage.

On thing that really hit home this year though, is now much we take cheap grass for granted. Having bought in silage, straw and meal this spring just to keep suckler cows going has left a big dent. Grazed grass is by far the cheapest.

blue5000

Personally I think it is a non runner for beef cattle anyway. The costs per day must be at least 3x higher than grazing. I saw that article on the lads in Clare feeding bulls last year, but I don't think they were actually finishing them?

If land is too wet to graze, surely it will be too wet to drive on. Ok for a tightly stocked dairy farm with an outfarm it may be an option, but when milk prices drop you'd be a busy fool.

20silkcut

I would love to see a breakdown of the cost of zero grazing.
Bar the initial purchase Cost of the machine.

Its a drum mower with a light corrugated trailer behind it.

It is not cutting to the butt so its hardly burning diesel fierce heavily in the tractor???? Not much more than a topper I'd reckon

How long does it take to fill ???? Most I have seen take about 15 mins.

They seem a fairly simple machine with relatively few moving/wearing parts.
I would reckon that between water troughs, fencing, water piping, poaching, break outs etc there would not be much in it.

bbam

I see a few lads at it round Cavan this spring.. some with herds smaller than 40 cows and I'm not sure how that works out economically.
I doubt they will house cows 24*7*365 but rather use the zero grazer to allow access to good grass without popaching in the spring/autumn and then regular graze for the "summer".
I'd have thought that if good ground is available its still better to let cows out to graze... for their feet if nothing else.

dharn

Would these guys store any feed ? It would seem very odd to be driving around a field cutting grass on christmas day, a opposed to throwing in a few grabs or a bale !

grazeaway

dharn wrote: »

Would these guys store any feed ? It would seem very odd to be driving around a field cutting grass on christmas day, a opposed to throwing in a few grabs or a bale !

grazing is done when the grass is there. winter time would be the same as normal with silage cut and feed for the winter.

grazeaway

bbam wrote: »

I see a few lads at it round Cavan this spring.. some with herds smaller than 40 cows and I'm not sure how that works out economically.
I doubt they will house cows 24*7*365 but rather use the zero grazer to allow access to good grass without popaching in the spring/autumn and then regular graze for the "summer".
I'd have thought that if good ground is available its still better to let cows out to graze... for their feet if nothing else.

yeah i'd be thinking the same, i think a lot of fellas using it at the moment are using the ZG in spring and authnm with the cows out for the summer. its just with the way last summer went the cows and fields would have been off zero grazed

Farmer Pudsey

Looking at zero grazing it may be an option in some places however some farmers need to actually start framing again. A lot of lad need drains sorted out and land drains installed. I do not understand the gra for machinery.

A few week back i visited a lad I know on heavy land he about50 acres rented without maps at 100/acre. That works out at nearly 5k/year. The only winner was the farmer renting it to him he had the DA, SFP and was more than likly qualifying for the next SFP. I think he would be better off putting that into improving his own farm. He had drains that needed opening rushes that needed spraying and topping, a bit of reseeding and lime would not goastray either etc. This farm was on a slope so it should be possible to sucessfully drain and as one ould fella says he had an exit for water( flood the next fooker).

The other thing is some beef farmers have become too dependant on storing cattle that is overwintering on a cheap basis and using ration as a balance for poor quality silage. Again if the money given to the mill was invested in better quality grass and silage it might improve profitability.It has amazed me this yera how much reseed ground has out preformed old pasture.

the other thing about zero grazing is that if cattle cannot graze will you be able to cut and get into a wagon without damaging the land. We may be trying to reinvent thw wheel

dharn

grazeaway wrote: »

grazing is done when the grass is there. winter time would be the same as normal with silage cut and feed for the winter.

Thats not zerograzing !

ford2600

grazeaway wrote: »

what with the way the weather has been over the last year is anyone seriously contemplating the zero grazing approach?

You'd have to change your username?

Tipp Man

If the economics of this are questionable on a dairy farm (certainly questionable with a low milk price) then how on earth are the economics of it supposed to stack up on a beef/cattle/suckler farm??

kowtow

There was a NI dardni paper on it a while ago, estimating costs.

On the basis that grazed grass cost £73 / t DM they had zero grazed grass at £90 and big bale at £86.

Of course a lot depends on the quantity of grass you're bringing in at a single haul (and where you are bringing it from..).

If an average haul was 1.5t DM (which I think is a small/mid machine) then they are allowing £27 odd to bring it in.. I wonder how much of that is a depreciation charge.

Edit: actually I recall that they were charging for fencing of paddocks etc. for grazing, so the allowance for cost of zg is higher than I have set out above.

grazeaway

If the economics of indoor milking were so bad then how come it is viable in other EU countries like holland, Austria, Sweden etc etc. they base their system in grass too with silage and hay. Despite what teagasc may tell you Ireland is not nz. Their climate is far more like France then here.
The grass grazing system is by far the most cost effective provided the grass is there. If the land is not suitable for grazing then the system runs into bother. How many out there have been able to have the cows out every day from mid feb to mid nov?

kowtow

grazeaway wrote: »

If the economics of indoor milking were so bad then how come it is viable in other EU countries like holland, Austria, Sweden etc etc. they base their system in grass too with silage and hay. Despite what teagasc may tell you Ireland is not nz. Their climate is far more like France then here.

Couldn't agree with you more.

Looking at this with a banker's - rather than a farmers eye - if I was going into mainstream dairy as my son may end up doing, I would be looking for a system which was profitable when run largely, even mostly, indoors - but crucially with flexibility to scale up or scale down beyond the confines of the grazing platform as conditions change. Easier said than done, of course.

To my untutored eye this would suggest the ability to draw in / buy in as much grass as possible and ramp up production when grass is plentiful and cheap. It may well be that rented land is the better option here as 3-4% represents fairly cheap funding with little or no capital commitment. Rented ground, of course, means silage and/or zero grazing for the most part.

However - at the core you would need a TMR / PMR solution which could produce profitable milk in it's own right to underpin the business, and you'd want to stress test such a system against years with the least possible grass, high concentrate costs, and a low milk price. You'd have to design labour, machinery, and depreciation to work profitably in those years - knowing that you'd be in a position to reap profits from plentiful grass when it's there.

I know that's a view from 50,000 ft and misses all the vital detail - the real question, for me at least, with zero grazing is (a) how well would it fit with a TMR/PMR (b) how much better would it be (in yield and quality terms) than really good bale silage, and (c) how much more or less compared to bales might it cost to bring in.

And why can't / couldn't we grow Lucerne?

bob charles

kowtow wrote: »

And why can't / couldn't we grow Lucerne?

just take it from me we cant. If we could then I would never have an animal outside. a bit of Alfalfa and corn mixed together and volla

grazeaway

kowtow wrote: »

Couldn't agree with you more.

Looking at this with a banker's - rather than a farmers eye - if I was going into mainstream dairy as my son may end up doing, I would be looking for a system which was profitable when run largely, even mostly, indoors - but crucially with flexibility to scale up or scale down beyond the confines of the grazing platform as conditions change. Easier said than done, of course.

To my untutored eye this would suggest the ability to draw in / buy in as much grass as possible and ramp up production when grass is plentiful and cheap. It may well be that rented land is the better option here as 3-4% represents fairly cheap funding with little or no capital commitment. Rented ground, of course, means silage and/or zero grazing for the most part.

However - at the core you would need a TMR / PMR solution which could produce profitable milk in it's own right to underpin the business, and you'd want to stress test such a system against years with the least possible grass, high concentrate costs, and a low milk price. You'd have to design labour, machinery, and depreciation to work profitably in those years - knowing that you'd be in a position to reap profits from plentiful grass when it's there.

I know that's a view from 50,000 ft and misses all the vital detail - the real question, for me at least, with zero grazing is (a) how well would it fit with a TMR/PMR (b) how much better would it be (in yield and quality terms) than really good bale silage, and (c) how much more or less compared to bales might it cost to bring in.

And why can't / couldn't we grow Lucerne?

might sound like a stupid question, but whats TMR / PMR ?

pakalasa

Transmyocardial Laser Revascularization (TMR) ......It's an operation for the eyes, for those that can't see clearly. Don't you love the irony.

Seriously, is it not easier to bring Mohamad to the Mountain, than the Mountain to Mohamad. (Total mixed ration & Partly Mixed Ration. I had to google them too.)

Farmer Pudsey

kowtow wrote: »

Couldn't agree with you more.

Looking at this with a banker's - rather than a farmers eye - if I was going into mainstream dairy as my son may end up doing, I would be looking for a system which was profitable when run largely, even mostly, indoors - but crucially with flexibility to scale up or scale down beyond the confines of the grazing platform as conditions change. Easier said than done, of course.

To my untutored eye this would suggest the ability to draw in / buy in as much grass as possible and ramp up production when grass is plentiful and cheap. It may well be that rented land is the better option here as 3-4% represents fairly cheap funding with little or no capital commitment. Rented ground, of course, means silage and/or zero grazing for the most part.

However - at the core you would need a TMR / PMR solution which could produce profitable milk in it's own right to underpin the business, and you'd want to stress test such a system against years with the least possible grass, high concentrate costs, and a low milk price. You'd have to design labour, machinery, and depreciation to work profitably in those years - knowing that you'd be in a position to reap profits from plentiful grass when it's there.

I know that's a view from 50,000 ft and misses all the vital detail - the real question, for me at least, with zero grazing is (a) how well would it fit with a TMR/PMR (b) how much better would it be (in yield and quality terms) than really good bale silage, and (c) how much more or less compared to bales might it cost to bring in.

And why can't / couldn't we grow Lucerne?

We cannot grow lucerne as our climate is too wet. Farmer near me grew it it lasted less than three years. He was cutting it all the time . I would not consider ZG will solve the problem of wet weather. On heavy land will you be able to get access to land to cut grass in Feb/March. If a lightish cow cannot go out can a tractor and zero grazer enter the field.In wet weather fresh grass will weight a way heavier than in dry weather. Yes you may be able to cut 3-5 day supply in low temperatures but at that time of year how long after a few wet day will it before you can access paddocks/fields. On good land or on bad land ZG may not be an option.

Usually if costs are cheap o/p will increase so milk price will fall. If grass is growing well all farmers irrespective of system can increase o/p this will lead to a reduction in milk price. This years proves it last year the outlook was that milk would continue to fall, However the increase in feed cost through higher grain prices and higher cost due to weather in Ireland has forced up the price of milk. If milk was 30c/L how many more farmers would be reducing stock numbers, how many would even consider expanding to fill unused quota.

The biggest issue over the next few years will be the push by Co-op's to increase supply on the shoulders feb/march and Oct/nov to reduce there Capital cost with regard to revenue. So you will find a situtation where the price for milk will be much better during these months and Bonus/Penelty's will apply. Grass during these months will have to come from reseeded ground. Very few land owners that rent ground will reseed, unless long term leasing increase substancially then grass from rented ground will not supply a cheap supply for ZG during these months even if the land is accessible with the weather.

kowtow

Grass during these months will have to come from reseeded ground. Very few land owners that rent ground will reseed, unless long term leasing increase substancially then grass from rented ground will not supply a cheap supply for ZG during these months even if the land is accessible with the weather.

So, put 'em indoors all year, continually re-seed the grazing platform and zero graze it for the high milk price at the shoulders, bring in the rest of the grass from outside farms (rented or not) when it's plentiful for the rest of the year.

Timmaay

A question I have here in relation to this, and the whole fodder crisis/weather patterns etc in general! Are we seeing more and more of a two tier system, on one hand you have the farmers lucky enough to be on good dry soil, with decent enough weather (south/south east mostly), these farmers largely escaped the worst of it over the last 12 months, cows didn't have to come in over the summer, cows were still got out in early Feb, and alot of them seem to be doing ok in terms of this yrs silage now, so should survive the winter coming. And moving forward, the early feb bonuses etc suit them as they are able to produce the grass then. (ok I'm lucky enough to be one of them!)

On the other hand are the lads whos land simply never gets a chance to dry out, people with cows in full time from last August until May this year which obviously has cost an arm and a leg in feed, problems with lameness/fertility etc etc, then lower yields of silage now, which will be cut much later with the resulting quality drop.

Of course all this is only relevant if the current weather patterns we have continue, and even then, maybe I'm totally off the mark and its all down to management/cashflow/stocking levels etc. The boys in ballyhaise etc are certainly trying to prove me otherwise. But I've seen the extreme hardship endured by the lads on heavy ground this year, I know I'd be most certainly thinking about throwing in the towel in those cases, maybe indoor systems do have merit in some of those cases.

mf240

Increase in milk price was nothing to do with the weather in Ireland. the three main factors were drought in america, global grain price increase and now drought in new zeland.

kowtow

mf240 wrote: »

Increase in milk price was nothing to do with the weather in Ireland. the three main factors were drought in america, global grain price increase and now drought in new zeland.

Exactly. If it's a world market we are supplying the last thing to influence the milk price will be production in Ireland - except to the extent that the demand is from local processors with shortfalls on delivery obligations, which should hardly be a factor in the long term.

Tipp Man

grazeaway wrote: »

If the economics of indoor milking were so bad then how come it is viable in other EU countries like holland, Austria, Sweden etc etc. they base their system in grass too with silage and hay. Despite what teagasc may tell you Ireland is not nz. Their climate is far more like France then here.
The grass grazing system is by far the most cost effective provided the grass is there. If the land is not suitable for grazing then the system runs into bother. How many out there have been able to have the cows out every day from mid feb to mid nov?

What is the milk price in Sweden - think it was nearly 50 cent last year, same in Switzerland.

Irish dairy farmers are competing on the world market for between 80 and 90% of the milk produced in this country - and that figure will increase as cows increase

Farmers in some of these countries on the whole are not competing on the world market and are purely supplying milk for the domestic market - domestic markets which are some of the richest people on the planet

If we base ourselves and our cost of production against Scandanavia and switzerland et al then we might as well give up now - the base that we have to be using is NZ because they are the boys we are competing against on the world market

Tipp Man

kowtow wrote: »

So, put 'em indoors all year, continually re-seed the grazing platform and zero graze it for the high milk price at the shoulders, bring in the rest of the grass from outside farms (rented or not) when it's plentiful for the rest of the year.

It's at the shoulders of the year that you need all of the ground available for the cows - not the way you are saying it

And how much an acre does reseeding cost?? too much to be doing it continually thats for sure

kowtow

Tipp Man wrote: »

If we base ourselves and our cost of production against Scandanavia and switzerland et al then we might as well give up now - the base that we have to be using is NZ because they are the boys we are competing against on the world market

Well Switzerland, of course, is not an open market as far as dairy products are concerned. The swiss buy their milk locally.

Tipp Man

kowtow wrote: »

Well Switzerland, of course, is not an open market as far as dairy products are concerned. The swiss buy their milk locally.

Exactly my point - using these kind of countries as some kind of comparison with Ireland is a waste of time

kowtow

Tipp Man wrote: »

It's at the shoulders of the year that you need all of the ground available for the cows - not the way you are saying it

And how much an acre does reseeding cost?? too much to be doing it continually thats for sure

I was being semi-serious

No, the point was how to meet production at peak price - if you can't do it on short term rented ground as reseeding is required, use the owned grazing platform and zero graze it in (if the cows can't access it), using outside rented ground in the summer when grass is plentiful.

kowtow

Tipp Man wrote: »

Exactly my point - using these kind of countries as some kind of comparison with Ireland is a waste of time

Absolutely. How about Holland?

grazeaway

Timmaay wrote: »

A question I have here in relation to this, and the whole fodder crisis/weather patterns etc in general! Are we seeing more and more of a two tier system, on one hand you have the farmers lucky enough to be on good dry soil, with decent enough weather (south/south east mostly), these farmers largely escaped the worst of it over the last 12 months, cows didn't have to come in over the summer, cows were still got out in early Feb, and alot of them seem to be doing ok in terms of this yrs silage now, so should survive the winter coming. And moving forward, the early feb bonuses etc suit them as they are able to produce the grass then. (ok I'm lucky enough to be one of them!)

On the other hand are the lads whos land simply never gets a chance to dry out, people with cows in full time from last August until May this year which obviously has cost an arm and a leg in feed, problems with lameness/fertility etc etc, then lower yields of silage now, which will be cut much later with the resulting quality drop.

Of course all this is only relevant if the current weather patterns we have continue, and even then, maybe I'm totally off the mark and its all down to management/cashflow/stocking levels etc. The boys in ballyhaise etc are certainly trying to prove me otherwise. But I've seen the extreme hardship endured by the lads on heavy ground this year, I know I'd be most certainly thinking about throwing in the towel in those cases, maybe indoor systems do have merit in some of those cases.

we're down south on good land and we got and almighty hammering last year, it rained almost everyday from mid april to the 1st week in sept, the logest spell of dry weather we got was 3 days twice, once in june, once in july. If i could have i would had the cows and calves indoors for a bit to save soem of teh fields. The weather was such that the south and the east got the rain 1st and it then moved up accorss the country. where we were lucky was when it finally stopped in september that we got a few week to dry out.

what with the way 07, 08, 09, and 2012 have been could it be a case that the wetter milder weather could make the way we have farmed for the last 60 years obsolete and that we may actually have to embrace the way its done in other countries to make the best of what we have? will we have to adapt or die?

Timmaay

Thats the horrible true to it Tipp, the price of milk paid in NZ over the last 10/20yrs has most certainly lagged the price of milk in Europe, which was boosted by the quota system. NZ were happy that they were still able to make a profit, due to their low cost grass system, and efficiency of scale etc. Ireland is rightly so basing their expansion model moving forward on a similar system, and unfortunately for some of the farmers who have wet land, simple as is they could well not be suited to this model at all. In my opinion, post 2015 and being quota free is most certainly good news for farmers on good land and who can produce the milk cheaply, but there undoubtedly will be losers also!

kowtow

Timmaay wrote: »

Thats the horrible true to it Tipp, the price of milk paid in NZ over the last 10/20yrs has most certainly lagged the price of milk in Europe, which was boosted by the quota system. NZ were happy that they were still able to make a profit, due to their low cost grass system, and efficiency of scale etc. Ireland is rightly so basing their expansion model moving forward on a similar system, and unfortunately for some of the farmers who have wet land, simple as is they could well not be suited to this model at all. In my opinion, post 2015 and being quota free is most certainly good news for farmers on good land and who can produce the milk cheaply, but there undoubtedly will be losers also!

Well if we want to turn supply on and off at the drop of a hat, we'll need stacks of replacements.

So perhaps the idea is that the the poorer land should be used for contract-rearing?

Timmaay

grazeaway wrote: »

we're down south on good land and we got and almighty hammering last year, it rained almost everyday from mid april to the 1st week in sept, the logest spell of dry weather we got was 3 days twice, once in june, once in july. If i could have i would had the cows and calves indoors for a bit to save soem of teh fields. The weather was such that the south and the east got the rain 1st and it then moved up accorss the country. where we were lucky was when it finally stopped in september that we got a few week to dry out.

what with the way 07, 08, 09, and 2012 have been could it be a case that the wetter milder weather could make the way we have farmed for the last 60 years obsolete and that we may actually have to embrace the way its done in other countries to make the best of what we have? will we have to adapt or die?

I'll agree and I was hit similarly, I'll put that down mostly to being caught out, I should have been ready with the backing fences, standing off cows longer in the holding area etc etc and being flexible enough to have the sheds ready to let the cows back in if needed be for afew night. More longer term, drainage got put on the back boiler, any drains that were 1/2 blocked etc couldn't take the volume of water.

grazeaway

Tipp Man wrote: »

What is the milk price in Sweden - think it was nearly 50 cent last year, same in Switzerland.

Irish dairy farmers are competing on the world market for between 80 and 90% of the milk produced in this country - and that figure will increase as cows increase

Farmers in some of these countries on the whole are not competing on the world market and are purely supplying milk for the domestic market - domestic markets which are some of the richest people on the planet

If we base ourselves and our cost of production against Scandanavia and switzerland et al then we might as well give up now - the base that we have to be using is NZ because they are the boys we are competing against on the world market

not quite true, sweden is not as expensive as everyone thinks (take away the living costs of stockholm and the cost of alchol). Thier food and grocey bill would actualy be less then ours, their fuel bills are around the same as here, but esb is a fraction of the cost here. They also import a lot of milk and dairy products form places like denamrk, germany and finland so the local sullpiers are in competion with them (like us and the lads up north and in britan). In fact there is campaign to keep it local so people were willing to pay an extra kroner (about 12c) to buy from swedish farmers insted of passing this onto the farmer to co-ops pocketed it.

kowtow

grazeaway wrote: »

not quite true, sweden is not as expensive as everyone thinks (take away the living costs of stockholm and the cost of alchol). Thier food and grocey bill would actualy be less then ours, their fuel bills are around the same as here, but esb is a fraction of the cost here.

My everyday cost of living in Ireland is close to what it was in Switzerland.

Timmaay

kowtow wrote: »

Well if we want to turn supply on and off at the drop of a hat, we'll need stacks of replacements.

So perhaps the idea is that the the poorer land should be used for contract-rearing?

Ugh hmmm using replacements to turn on and off the tap is not a great model to be following either, that usually means very high yielding HOs with zero regard for survivability. Works okish in the USA system where they have the pure economy of scale to allow for much lower margins per cow, but as we saw last yr with the high price of grain, loads and loads of US farmers still went to the wall. And thats with the US goverment paying them big grants to produce the milk. Brings us back to the NZ case, low cost, low cost, low cost or else forget about it!

Ok jesus, I'm getting the hell off this laptop now ha, have loads of farmwork to do!!!!

Tipp Man

kowtow wrote: »

Absolutely. How about Holland?

In Holland they are paying a higher price for milk that is produced outdoors - a bonus for it

They want to get to what we have

Tipp Man

grazeaway wrote: »

not quite true, sweden is not as expensive as everyone thinks (take away the living costs of stockholm and the cost of alchol). Thier food and grocey bill would actualy be less then ours, their fuel bills are around the same as here, but esb is a fraction of the cost here. They also import a lot of milk and dairy products form places like denamrk, germany and finland so the local sullpiers are in competion with them (like us and the lads up north and in britan). In fact there is campaign to keep it local so people were willing to pay an extra kroner (about 12c) to buy from swedish farmers insted of passing this onto the farmer to co-ops pocketed it.

So there you have it - they are paying more to buy the local produce - why because the high costs associated with production in Sweden can't compete with lower cost producers

Now the Swedes have made a choice to pay more for local milk (and well done to them for it) but to even think about using their dairy farmers as some kind of basis for Irish milk production is most definately not the way forward for us

kowtow

Tipp Man wrote: »

So there you have it - they are paying more to buy the local produce - why because the high costs associated with production in Sweden can't compete with lower cost producers

Now the Swedes have made a choice to pay more for local milk (and well done to them for it) but to even think about using their dairy farmers as some kind of basis for Irish milk production is most definately not the way forward for us

So

1. We have insufficient local demand to absorb dairy production.

2. The only resource we have for supplying milk to the international market (which our supply is too small to influence) is grass. Irish grass is expensive (land prices..) and exhibits apparent volatility of 70% in yield, notwithstanding utilisation, year over year, as we are seeing at the moment.

3. We apparently cannot produce milk at a profit indoors on conserved grass and concentrates (still not convinced of that..)

All of which makes dairy a risky proposition, so in due course the real terms price of land will drop to reflect the risk.

AntrimGlens

don't know how to insert url or upload vid but go to you tube and type in harpur zero grazing there was an article done by jack kennedy in last weeks journal (northern version) of this family zero grazing, i think they costed it at £60/ac similar to the cost of making silage but were drawing some of it 7 miles home. I think all they ever did was cut grass, spread fert, spread slurry and milk cows.
will see if i can find the article i know its laying about the house somehwere

Tipp Man

kowtow wrote: »

So

1. We have insufficient local demand to absorb dairy production.

2. The only resource we have for supplying milk to the international market (which our supply is too small to influence) is grass. Irish grass is expensive (land prices..) and exhibits apparent volatility of 70% in yield, notwithstanding utilisation, year over year, as we are seeing at the moment.

3. We apparently cannot produce milk at a profit indoors on conserved grass and concentrates (still not convinced of that..)

All of which makes dairy a risky proposition, so in due course the real terms price of land will drop to reflect the risk.

1. Well 80-90% of milk is exported so yes local demand in not really that important and most definately is insufficient to absorb demand - but not a problem

2. Grass most definately is not the ONLY resource we have - but it is by far the cheapest resource that we have for producing milk - certainly on a mass scale. Are you aware just how much it costs to grow and conserve maize, beet, wholecorp?? We had a bad year for growing grass this past 12 months - show me a crop that grows the exact same amount every single year - it doesn't exist. That's what happens when you deal with nature

3. We cannot produce milk EN MASSE indoors at a profit when it is to be sold at world market prices - why do you think the liquid milk fellas get paid a premium and still struggle to make any decent money from it??

kowtow

Tipp Man wrote: »

2. Grass most definately is not the ONLY resource we have - but it is by far the cheapest resource that we have for producing milk - certainly on a mass scale. Are you aware just how much it costs to grow and conserve maize, beet, wholecorp?? We had a bad year for growing grass this past 12 months - show me a crop that grows the exact same amount every single year - it doesn't exist. That's what happens when you deal with nature

Sorry, my point 2 should have read "ONLY resource we have to produce profitable milk"... was intended to be read in conjunction with point 3.

And that is the nub of the matter. Put simply, Irish milk is only profitable at scale to the extent that it is produced from grass - in any given year.

However grass is a volatile resource (like other crops - but other crops are liquid in the financial sense - have a much shorter production cycle than the dairy cow does, can be sowed or ploughed in more or less at will).

When Irish grass is cheap and plentiful, we would all like to have 1000 cows already in the parlour ready to turn it into highly profitable milk. I dare say we wouldn't care a damn if it was brought in by zero-grazer or delivered by An Post.

The question is, when the grass is not cheap and not plentiful, is there an indoor (or indoor / outdoor) system which can maintain the herd at a basic profitable level, in a year of poor yield, poor grazing, expensive concentrates and low milk price - which makes sense in terms of stocking rates, return on land price etc. and which would then allow the farm to reap the profits of cheap grass when they are there.

And to what extent, if any, would zero grazing help with that?

Farmer Pudsey

kowtow wrote: »

So, put 'em indoors all year, continually re-seed the grazing platform and zero graze it for the high milk price at the shoulders, bring in the rest of the grass from outside farms (rented or not) when it's plentiful for the rest of the year.

You only answered part of the post. Most efficent dairy farmers reseed there grazing platforms. however the point about if the ZG would be able to provide grass during the shoulders of the year is a key question. As all that is happening is that you are putting cost onto the low cost part of the system

mf240 wrote: »

Increase in milk price was nothing to do with the weather in Ireland. the three main factors were drought in america, global grain price increase and now drought in new zeland.

kowtow wrote: »

Exactly. If it's a world market we are supplying the last thing to influence the milk price will be production in Ireland - except to the extent that the demand is from local processors with shortfalls on delivery obligations, which should hardly be a factor in the long term.

Technically you are bith correct but would milk be 1-3c/L lower if the co-op had normal supply and are they passing on increase in prices faster than normal in because of the extra costs that farmers in ireland have to endure at present. The Co-op would be aware of the pressure on supply if milk was a few cent cheaper they may or may not be trying to preserve supply into there plants.

Timmaay wrote: »

I'll agree and I was hit similarly, I'll put that down mostly to being caught out, I should have been ready with the backing fences, standing off cows longer in the holding area etc etc and being flexible enough to have the sheds ready to let the cows back in if needed be for afew night. More longer term, drainage got put on the back boiler, any drains that were 1/2 blocked etc couldn't take the volume of water.

Farmers on good ground have increased costs as well with higher stocking rates they got caught during late April and early May for grass. My point about putting money into actual farming activities such as drainage and reseeding as opposed to machinery.

grazeaway

intresting acticle in today farm exam about liquid milk suppliers. basic jist of it is that about 30% of the liquid milk suppliers have changed to summer milk and looks like another 30% are likely to swap over in the next year. With many of the new fellas getting into it also going for summer milk which is mainly used for manufactuering we could see an over supply of summer milk and hence lower price and a shortage of winter milk meaning that we might have to import it.
This the kind of senaerio i think will happen hence my thoughts on having a high input/output system (robot, ZG and year round milking) with less lads staying in that system there should be room for others. Now i know that the reason lads are getting out is the higher cost of feed and having delpleted thier silage stock over the last year but surely there is a market there for certain farmers? My place is not big enough to take 60-70 cows and milk year round but maybe other lads can? and rather then looking at the summer grazing model producing low cost milk for baby powder and cheese they should be aiming higher at the liquid milk market?

Tipp Man

grazeaway wrote: »

intresting acticle in today farm exam about liquid milk suppliers. basic jist of it is that about 30% of the liquid milk suppliers have changed to summer milk and looks like another 30% are likely to swap over in the next year. With many of the new fellas getting into it also going for summer milk which is mainly used for manufactuering we could see an over supply of summer milk and hence lower price and a shortage of winter milk meaning that we might have to import it.
This the kind of senaerio i think will happen hence my thoughts on having a high input/output system (robot, ZG and year round milking) with less lads staying in that system there should be room for others. Now i know that the reason lads are getting out is the higher cost of feed and having delpleted thier silage stock over the last year but surely there is a market there for certain farmers? My place is not big enough to take 60-70 cows and milk year round but maybe other lads can? and rather then looking at the summer grazing model producing low cost milk for baby powder and cheese they should be aiming higher at the liquid milk market?

We already import quite a bit of liquid milk from the North

The only thing i would say is that the guys who are getting out are getting out for a reason

kowtow

grazeaway wrote: »

This the kind of senaerio i think will happen hence my thoughts on having a high input/output system (robot, ZG and year round milking) with less lads staying in that system there should be room for others.

I don't think it's a question of how many are at that particular system (at least in the long term, and for export markets).. what I think is critical is whether an indoor system is a viable proposition, i.e. a system where a farm's production level is not directly coupled to it's grassland.

What would the feed costs be in such a system? up to €4-5 per cow per day (back of a fag packet.. others much better qualified than me).. with the same cow selling between €7 and €10 of milk a day taking a cautious price of 30 cents a litre. Very tight numbers at the extremes, but if they could be made to work indoors then presumably you would be free to substitute grazed grass, or zero grazed grass, to whatever extent it was available in any given year and turn it into profits.

grazeaway

Tipp Man wrote: »

So there you have it - they are paying more to buy the local produce - why because the high costs associated with production in Sweden can't compete with lower cost producers

Now the Swedes have made a choice to pay more for local milk (and well done to them for it) but to even think about using their dairy farmers as some kind of basis for Irish milk production is most definately not the way forward for us

its a kind of yes an no thing over there. it depnds on where your farming as it'll depend on you syste. Down in the very south its like being in south east england, huge farms mostly in tillage but huge dairy farms too where the garzing is mixed betweem indoors and outdoors. up north they have very distenct seasons, snow covered place from nov to april but summer from may to september. during the summer there is no night so grass grows all the time so silage is cut regually and stored as the cows cant eat the grass fast enough. The cows are housed most of the year but the additioanal cost of fencing and water for paddocks only makes sense to graze next to the parlour. in fact most famers will get a better return if they an inside 24/7. The actual cost of production is realivlty high due to the amount of silage that gets made if they could feed more grass (like here) it would be less. However due to the weak euro it is cheaper to import the milk from finland, poland or germany (the real cost if the Kroner was converetd to euro) of producing in finland and sweden is also the same its the currency differnce that makes it cheaper. Another thing is land price in sweden is quite a bit less then here.

comparisons with holland are more likely as over there they maximise every sq inch and their season are more simailar to ours (ok colder winter and hotter summer)

grazeaway

Tipp Man wrote: »

We already import quite a bit of liquid milk from the North

The only thing i would say is that the guys who are getting out are getting out for a reason

waht are those reasons though? how many are pumping expensive meal into the cows rather then streching the very last limits of grass?

kowtow

grazeaway wrote: »

waht are those reasons though? how many are pumping expensive meal into the cows rather then streching the very last limits of grass?

What's quite clear is that any indoor system would want to be designed to function at the very limits of input prices and output prices to make sense - i.e. assuming only the very minimum of available grazed grass.

You'd then need to consider the scale which would be required to cover fixed costs at that tight operating margin, and capital would be required to achieve that scale.

On the other hand, you wouldn't need to buy any land.

Seems to me the danger in Ireland is that everybody is being encouraged to gear up based on grazed grass numbers, with little thought to what needs to happen to maintain production and avoid going bankrupt when the grass is not there.

In theory at least, if I'm all indoors with a profitable stable operation and grass gets cheaper, all I need to bring it in is a zero grazer and my costs drop and yield / profit increases to my hearts content.

If I'm outdoors on the other hand and dependent on cheap fodder to make a profit, and the grass vanishes....