June 2013 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/viewform?formkey=dElyZTJQeUJzVjdnQ1JBcThYdHpCSEE6MQ#gid=1

ENTER USING THE FORM AT THE ABOVE ADDRESS.

Same questions as always ...

1. IMT (June average 1981-2010 was 13.7 C)

2. MAX

3. MIN

4. PRC

5. SUN

6. Bonus this month -- predict max temp at Dublin (A) on Saturday 8th June.

Anyone wanting more details could consult the May 2013 thread, post #1.

The late penalties are the same as usual, 5% every half day late starting at 0300h on Tuesday, 2 June.

That form again ...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/viewform?formkey=dElyZTJQeUJzVjdnQ1JBcThYdHpCSEE6MQ#gid=1

Don't miss our Summer forecast contest in a separate thread.

John mac

Done

now off to sunny (not) south of france,

Bsal

Done.

dasa29

Done

200motels

Done but I can't change my month min to 4.5.

clintondaly

Done

Harps

Done

mickger844posts

Done

lostinashford

Done

Tae laidir

Done (Twice - Newest version correct!)

homolumo

done

DOCARCH

Done

Joe Public

Done

traecy1

Done.

talkabout

done

rameire

done

Speak Now

14.3 ..... 25.0 ..... 3.8 .... 80% ..... 120% ..... 19c

nilhg

Done

dacogawa

Done (quickly & just in time )

SeaFields

done :cool:

Quickelles

Ditto;)

Rikand

Done

waterways

Done.
Thank you MT.

snowstreams

Nearly forgot about it with all the good weather! Done.

jd

Done \(oops)

M.T. Cranium

I will get a table together for this contest within a day, busy scoring May at the moment. Thanks all for entering. Hope you showed some optimism.

pauldry

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I will get a table together for this contest within a day, busy scoring May at the moment. Thanks all for entering. Hope you showed some optimism.

4.2c dublin could be minimum for month

22.5 in Shannon won't be maximum

M.T. Cranium

June forecasts
________________________

FORECASTER __________ IMT __ MAX __ MIN __ PRC __ SUN __ Dub(8th)
_____________________________________________________________

clintondaly_____________ 15.1 __ 21.8 __ 2.8 __ 087 __ 076 __ 16.3
mickger844posts________ 14.9 __ 26.1 __ 5.1 __ 080 __ 120 __ 21.4
Joe Public _____________ 14.9 __ 25.9 __ 4.9 __ 069 __ 129 __ 23.9
M.T. Cranium___________ 14.8 __ 27.8 __ 3.3 __ 080 __ 135 __ 22.5
nilhg _________________ 14.8 __ 25.8 __ 6.0 __ 080 __ 110 __ 22.8
talkabout______________ 14.7 __ 24.3 __ 3.4 __ 090 __ 110 __ 17.9
Tazio _________________ 14.5 __ 22.3 __ 3.0 __ 083 __ 107 __ 22.3
kindredspirit____________ 14.3 __ 25.0 __ 4.5 __ 080 __ 120 __ 18.5
Jerry Seinfeld___________ 14.3 __ 25.0 __ 3.8 __ 080 __ 120 __ 19.0
jpmarn________________ 14.2 __ 27.8 __ 2.5 __ 110 __ 090 __ 18.1
dacogawa______________ 14.2 __ 27.4 __ 2.1 __ 080 __ 130 __ 23.2
okla (-10) _____________ 14.2 __ 24.3 __ 3.9 __ 085 __ 095 __ 18.2
harps _________________ 14.1 __ 25.6 __ 4.9 __ 085 __ 110 __ 19.2
DOCARCH _____________ 14.0 __ 24.7 __ 4.2 __ 092 __ 108 __ 20.2
200motels _____________ 14.0 __ 28.0 __ 8.0 __ 045 __ 145 __ 24.7
Rickylovesuall __________ 14.0 __ 25.0 __ 3.0 __ 070 __ 130 __ 20.5
waterways (-10) ________ 14.0 __ 27.8 __ 3.8 __ 078 __ 159 __ 18.9

Con Sensus ____________ 14.0 __ 25.0 __ 4.0 __ 085 __ 110 __ 18.5

snowstreams (-25) ______ 14.0 __ 26.1 __ 2.5 __ 092 __ 109 __ 24.0
jd (-25) _______________ 14.0 __ 25.0 __ 2.4 __ 085 __ 110 __ 20.1
lostinashford ___________ 13.9 __ 26.3 __ 3.5 __ 084 __ 111 __ 20.5
Bsal __________________ 13.9 __ 25.0 __ 4.0 __ 090 __ 105 __ 17.4
John Mac ______________ 13.8 __ 25.5 __ 2.9 __ 090 __ 110 __ 18.4
homolumo _____________ 13.8 __ 26.0 __ 4.0 __ 099 __ 109 __ 15.0
traecy.1 _______________ 13.8 __ 27.3 __ 5.1 __ 090 __ 110 __ 19.6
omicron _______________ 13.7 __ 22.5 __ 2.5 __ 100 __ 100 __ 18.0
rameire _______________ 13.5 __ 25.3 __ 3.8 __ 086 __ 112 __ 21.1
seafields (-5) ___________ 13.5 __ 25.0 __ 4.5 __ 070 __ 150 __ 18.0
Pauldry________________ 13.4 __ 24.0 __ 0.9 __ 097 __ 101 __ 18.0
Quixelles (-5)___________ 13.2 __ 26.2 __ 3.8 __ 076 __ 112 __ 17.9
Strasser_______________ 12.9 __ 23.1 __ 4.2 __ 105 __ 095 __ 15.4
H2UMrsRobinson (-50) ___ 12.6 __ 29.3 __ 4.5 __ 075 __ 109 __ 23.2
Tae laidir ______________ 12.5 __ 23.0 __ 3.4 __ 110 __ 093 __ 18.6
Rocky Bay _____________ 12.2 __ 22.2 __ 2.2 __ 075 __ 075 __ 12.2
dasa29________________ 11.0 __ 25.0 __ 3.0 __ 090 __ 120 __ 23.0

_______________________________________________

So, our consensus of 34 forecasts seems to be slightly warmer than average and quite dry with above normal sunshine. So far so good.

H2UMrsRobinson

Completely late but done.

M.T. Cranium

Okay, pretty harsh penalty this late (50) but what the hey, it's all in fun.

Harps

22.6C at Shannon today, likely to be beaten tomorrow though with ~24C forecast for the same area

Rikand

24 is grand - 25 is better

but not 26 please

Quickelles

26.2 would be just fine.

pauldry

Quickelles wrote: »

26.2 would be just fine.

24 would be enough, wonder will Sligo finally see a Sunday without rain after so many dull ones with rain

Quickelles

pauldry wrote: »

24 would be enough, wonder will Sligo finally see a Sunday without rain after so many dull ones with rain

What's rain?

Of course here on the East coast temps over 20C are equally rare!

pauldry

24.6c highest of june and of course summer recorded at shannon

maybe newport or mount dillon beat it

checked mace head

it made 23.7c

sligo got 24.0 on a few occasions but I think it hit 24.1c once around 3pm

rosses point was even 23c on car in wind (dont know accuracy of that compared to oregon)

whatever I only predicted 24 MAX for June so lost points off that

Lets see what bonus holds tommorrow could be 18 to 22

(live a sad life looking at thermometors whilst getting sunburnt)

pauldry

18.9c in Dublin on 1800 ogimet report

Harps

Newport made 25C today though we wont know the actual value until tomorrow. Quite a few IWN stations in the west topped 25C but obviously they don't count for this

Shannon surprisingly only made 24.3C going by ogimet, there was a lot less wind today so I thought maxes would be higher

Speak Now

Newport got 25.4 according to

pauldry

yes it definitely got over 25c in newport, just need to confirm

shannon you are useless

Quickelles

Anywhere hit 26.2 yet? The magic number!

Rikand

pauldry wrote: »

18.9c in Dublin on 1800 ogimet report

winnar alright.

Weather Data for Yesterday 08-Jun-2013

Station Rain Max Min Sun Wind Soil Global Gmin
Dublin Airport 0.0 18.9 4.4 15.5 5.0 19.2 3040 0.7

Quickelles

Are there any bonus points for being close

M.T. Cranium

Sure, the bonus points go by rank order. We have 34 entrants, this will mean three get ten points, three get nine, etc, and the four furthest adrift get zero. Ties might change the details slightly. From what I can see, it's ten points for waterways who hit on the mark (18.9), Jerry Seinfeld (19.0) then two more are tied so they both get ten points (Tae laidir 18.6, harps 19.2). That means two spots left for nine points and those go to kindredspirit (18.5) and John mac (18.4). Con Sensus also gets nine points (those are assigned without disrupting the flow to actual contestants). From eight points down to about five you'll need to be in the 18 to 20 range, I think. Anyway, you can check the table and see roughly where you stand.

Meanwhile, IMT is on 14.0, rainfall has been nil for most of the eleven stations used in the MS but Belmullet and Malin Head have had a small amount each, we're sitting at 3-4% of normal in the grid as of now, and sunshine must be about 150% at least.

M.T. Cranium

After 14 days the IMT was on 13.7, estimate 13.6 at mid-month.

The rainfall has generally not reached quite normal values as a wet second week followed a bone dry first week, but Valentia seems to be ahead of the pack. Most of the other stations are between 70 and 110 per cent of normal for the first half. I would say we're sitting at around 90 per cent so far.

The sunshine was not totally sunk by the change in the pattern as the ag report indicates the second week stayed above normal slightly, balanced with the 200% or more of the first week. So we're at about 165% normal sunshine and it would take an exceptionally cloudy second half to bring that below 120% now.

Tae laidir

Met Eireann is giving me the following:
Min: 3.8 Casement 1 June
Max: 25.4 Newport 8 June.

All the action at start of month, though Mt. Dillon showing 6 deg at midnight tonight.

omicron

Tae laidir wrote: »

Met Eireann is giving me the following:
Min: 3.8 Casement 1 June
Max: 25.4 Newport 8 June.

All the action at start of month, though Mt. Dillon showing 6 deg at midnight tonight.

3.1 at Mt Dillon last night. Almost a grass frost at 0.1.

Max could be broken at the weekend if sunny.

IMT at 13.4 to the 25th.

Rainfall estimated somewhere between 80 and 90% I'd say.

Sun is still very high despite lower values lately, probably somewhere above 130%.

Rikand

omicron wrote: »

IMT at 13.4 to the 25th.

Get this to go up another couple of degrees and apart from the bonus question I'll have almost a perfect month

pauldry

Rickylovesuall wrote: »

Get this to go up another couple of degrees and apart from the bonus question I'll have almost a perfect month

As usual I get the imt spot on and the rest wrong

I find min temp the toughest to predict

M.T. Cranium

Confirmed final values for June:

IMT 13.6 C
MAX 25.4 at Newport 8th
MIN 2.8 at Mountdillon 5th
PRC 91% of normal
SUN 114% of normal

The bonus question was discussed earlier in the thread and scoring will follow perhaps by this evening.

rameire

looks good for to me