Johnnys Golf Accums

Johnny86

beertons wrote: »

Nice pot now Johnny!

Yeah it's gone well for the last 2 weeks in particular. Happy enough to keep the bets at a total of a tenner or thereabouts as I've been taking out some winnings as I've gone along..wish betfair were quicker to be up the market!

Johnny86

4th round British Open 2 balls

Bank 678.42

Bet 36: Katayama, Donaldson, Day, Garcia

2e trebles, 2e accum

Johnny86

Johnny86 wrote: »

4th round British Open 2 balls

Bank 678.42

Bet 36: Katayama, Donaldson, Day, Garcia

2e trebles, 2e accum

Fairly poor today..3 lost and Day tied with Johnson.
Been a good weekend all the same. Had Poulter as one of the six I backed outright and for top 10.

Bank 678.42 - 10 = 668.42

maxmo

Had the winner and Poulter.

Johnny86

maxmo wrote: »

Had the winner and Poulter.

Well done, really thought Garcia would challenge this week..suppose he was in with a chance when you consider mickelson was only one ahead of him going into final round.

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

great work the last few weeks Johnny!

Johnny86

Bank: 668.42

Canadian Open 3rd round 2 balls

Bet 37: Furyk, Matsuyama, Kirk, Baddeley, Mahan

2e four-folds, 2e accum (total 12e)

Always like to oppose average players the round after they shoot a low one (thus Baddeley against Gainey, Mahan against Merrick)

Johnny86

Johnny86 wrote: »

Bank: 668.42

Canadian Open 3rd round 2 balls

Bet 37: Furyk, Matsuyama, Kirk, Baddeley, Mahan

2e four-folds, 2e accum (total 12e)

Always like to oppose average players the round after they shoot a low one (thus Baddeley against Gainey, Mahan against Merrick)

1 winner only which was Baddeley, Furyk lost by 1, Matsuyama tied, Kirk lost by 2. Mahan withdrew so that was voided - Merrick only shot level par (was +4 with 4 to play) so confirms the strategy of going against average players after a low one.

Taking that into account and looking at the Canadian Open tonight - It would make sense to back Snedeker, Kuchar and Johnson against Lingmerth, Bohn and Stanley - the prices are poor enough but they are 3 class players. To add some value I'll also back Merrick to bounce back and beat Wilson who had a good round yesterday.

Bank 668.42 -10 = 658.42

Canadian Open 4th round 2 balls

Bet 38: Snedeker, Kuchar, D Johnson, Merrick

10e accum (about 7/1)

Johnny86

Taking that into account and looking at the Canadian Open tonight - It would make sense to back Snedeker, Kuchar and Johnson against Lingmerth, Bohn and Stanley - the prices are poor enough but they are 3 class players. To add some value I'll also back Merrick to bounce back and beat Wilson who had a good round yesterday.

Bank 668.42 -10 = 658.42

Canadian Open 4th round 2 balls

Bet 38: Snedeker, Kuchar, D Johnson, Merrick

10e accum (about 7/1)

2 winners (Snedeker and Johnson), 1 tie (Kuchar) and a loss (Merrick) so the accummulator was a loss.

Both Stanley (+1) and Lingmerth (+3) were over par after their low ones the day before. The other two games could have went my way with more luck...didn't help that Wilson eagled the 9th, holing his 2nd from 175 yards!

Bad weekend of bets overall

Bank 658.42-10 = 648.42

Johnny86

Away for the bank holiday weekend so just going to have one outright bet on Schwartzel. He shot 63 in the final round last year and seems to be playing well without putting 4 rounds together.

Bank: 648.42

WGC Outright and Top 5
Bet 39: Charl Schwartzel (44.0 win, 9.0 top 5 on betfair exchange)
5e on each

Johnny86

Bank 648.42 -10 = 638.42

WGC 4th round 2-balls
Bet 40: Schwartzel, Molinari, McIlroy, Kaymer

2e trebles, 2e accum

Schwartzel shot the round of the day yesterday, a 64. He has been putting in some very good rounds mixed with some pretty poor ones also. Very much a outside chance of getting into the Top 5 today (would surely need to shoot about -7 or -8 today).

Johnny86

Bank 638.42 - 10 = 628.42

WGC 4th round 2 balls

Looking at the 2 balls this afternoon, I noticed that in 3 cases the players had shot exactly the same score all 3 rounds (McDowell v Westwood, Matsuyama v Cabrera and Watson v Furyk). In another case there is just one shot difference between Donaldson and English in rounds 2 and 3.
Without doing any research into this sort of thing or looking at stats, you'd have to think that these players are playing to a very similar level this week and are more likely to shoot that same score again that other 2-balls. Maybe I'm talking nonsense but I'm going to throw some money where my mouth is anyway!

Bet 41: A 1e yankee on the "tie" in the 4 above mentioned (total cost 11e)

Betfair sportbook price them all up as 15/2 so if one double comes in then the payout is about 72e, after that the payouts are quite large!

Johnny86

A summary of the last few bets so

Bet 39: Schwartzel finished T-21 in the end this week but he shot the lowest score of the weekend with a 64-69. One of these bets that still feels like a good bet. I'll back him again next week at the PGA as I feel he is close to putting all 4 rounds together.

Bet 40: 3 wins out of 4, Schwartzel, McIlroy, Kaymer all winning. Molinari was well beaten by Simpson. Returned €18.14

Bet 41: There was one tied game out of the 4 i picked, that was Westwood and McDowell. The Donaldson English match was so close to being tied - they were level playing the 17th but English holed a 18ft putt to go one ahead. Then on the last English got up and down from 128 yards to make par meaning in the end he finished ahead of Donaldson (Donaldson missing his birdie chance). There was a big enough gap in the other two games. I still think there might be something in this strategy - looking at the final day two balls there were only 4 tied games in total out of 36 groups - so pricing those games at 15/2, the bookies have that spot on. Its something I'll be looking at again next weekend.

Bank 628.42 - 11 + 18.14 = 635.56

A loss this weekend overall but hopeful winners next weekend.

Johnny86

Bank 635.56

1st round 3 balls PGA Championship

Bet 42: Fowler, Schwartzel, McGinley, Merrick

2e trebles, 2e accum

Bet 43: Kaymer, Spieth, Matsuyama, DeLaet (these 4 are the picks of Dan Geragthy off betting.betfair.com and I couldn't argue with his reasoning)

2e trebles, 2e accum

Fowler shot low opening rounds in The Masters and The US Open and last week thus his pick at 2/1
I'm a big fan of Schwartzel this week, finishing as best of the weekend last week, thus his pick at 15/8
McGinley played well in his last outing and think he is good value against Clarke and Tom Watson at 15/8
Finally Merrick as been playing great the last few weeks and is against out of form Ogilvy and Rumford - 6/4

Have few other bets such as Schwartzel 1st round leader and outright, G-Mac for top 20, Luiten top 20

maxmo

Good to see your reasoning for the players.Good luck.

Johnny86

Quick update

Bet 42: All 4 lost, and apart from Fowler they weren't even close

Bet 43: Kaymer and DeLaet won but the others lost.

Think its time to give up on Schwartzel...

Bank:635.56 - 20 = 615.56

Johnny86

Bank 615.56

Going to have another attempt at the 'tie' in the 3rd round 2 balls.
The theory is to go with players who have had the same scores first two rounds.

Bet 44: Palmer & Curtis, Guthrie & Teater, Mahan & Fowler, Stenson & Rose

90c Yankee (total cost 9.90e)

Johnny86

Johnny86 wrote: »

Bank 615.56

Going to have another attempt at the 'tie' in the 3rd round 2 balls.
The theory is to go with players who have had the same scores first two rounds.

Bet 44: Palmer & Curtis, Guthrie & Teater, Mahan & Fowler, Stenson & Rose

90c Yankee (total cost 9.90e)

None of those matches were even close!

Bank 615.56 - 9.90 = 605.66

4th round 2 balls PGA Champ

Bet 45: Curtis, Jaidee, Koepka, Cabrera-Bello

2e trebles, 2e accum

So the theory with these picks are that they're up against top players who are out of contention. By the time it comes to the last round, if the top lads aren't up there in the mix then they lose interest, while their opponent is trying to the end..
It's Curtis v Poulter, Jaidee v Mahan, Koepka v Woods, Cabrera-Bello v Rose

We'll see how it goes anyway!

Johnny86

Johnny86 wrote: »

None of those matches were even close!

Bank 615.56 - 9.90 = 605.66

4th round 2 balls PGA Champ

Bet 45: Curtis, Jaidee, Koepka, Cabrera-Bello

2e trebles, 2e accum

So the theory with these picks are that they're up against top players who are out of contention. By the time it comes to the last round, if the top lads aren't up there in the mix then they lose interest, while their opponent is trying to the end..
It's Curtis v Poulter, Jaidee v Mahan, Koepka v Woods, Cabrera-Bello v Rose

We'll see how it goes anyway!

It was pretty close. Had 2 winners with Jaidee and Cabrera-Bello both winning at odds of 15/8. I really should have gone for the Mickelson game instead of Poulter (Phil lost his 2-ball) ...and Koepka would probably have been nervous playing with Woods (presumably for the first time). Its certainly a tactic I'll go for again - two 15/8 winners out of 4 would have to be considered successful

Bank: 605.66 - 10 = 595.66

Johnny86

Bank 595.66

Round 4 3-balls Wyndham Champs

Bet 46: Ross Fisher, Jin Park, Brendan Steele, Jordan Spieth

2e trebles, 2e accum

I think Fisher in particular at 17/10 is good value for his three ball against Jerry Kelly and Norlander.

Johnny86

Johnny86 wrote: »

Bank 595.66

Round 4 3-balls Wyndham Champs

Bet 46: Ross Fisher, Jin Park, Brendan Steele, Jordan Spieth

2e trebles, 2e accum

I think Fisher in particular at 17/10 is good value for his three ball against Jerry Kelly and Norlander.

Spieth won but the others lost..Steele double bogeyed the last to lose his while Park bogeyed the last to miss out on a DH..pretty frustrating! Fisher was well off!

Bank 595.66-10 = 585.66

Johnny86

Been away on hols so not kept in touch with the golf for a few weeks but will give this a go anyway.

Bank 585.66

1st round 3 balls omega masters

Bet 47: Jimenez, Willet, Ramsay, Levet

Johnny86

Johnny86 wrote: »

Been away on hols so not kept in touch with the golf for a few weeks but will give this a go anyway.

Bank 585.66

1st round 3 balls omega masters

Bet 47: Jimenez, Willet, Ramsay, Levet

Nice to get back to winning..3/4 with Ramsay letting me down with a poor round

Bank 585.66 - 10 + 40.50 = 616.16

2nd round 3 balls omega masters
Bet 48: Olazabal, F Molinari, Willet, D Clarke

2e trebles, 2e accum

I was surprised at the prices of each of these to win their three balls...Ollie is 5/2, Mol 2/1, Willet 7/4 and Clarke 9/4...big payout if it were to come off!

Johnny86

Johnny86 wrote: »

Nice to get back to winning..3/4 with Ramsay letting me down with a poor round

Bank 585.66 - 10 + 40.50 = 616.16

2nd round 3 balls omega masters
Bet 48: Olazabal, F Molinari, Willet, D Clarke

2e trebles, 2e accum

I was surprised at the prices of each of these to win their three balls...Ollie is 5/2, Mol 2/1, Willet 7/4 and Clarke 9/4...big payout if it were to come off!

Willet the only winner with a great round..the others were a bit off the pace really.

Bank 616.16 -10 = 606.16

3rd round 2 balls omega masters
Bet 49: Harrington, Jimenez, Bjorn, Havret

2e trebles, 2e accum

Johnny86

Johnny86 wrote: »

Willet the only winner with a great round..the others were a bit off the pace really.

Bank 616.16 -10 = 606.16

3rd round 3 balls omega masters
Bet 49: Harrington, Jimenez, Bjorn, Havret

2e trebles, 2e accum

Only 2/4 today so no good; Jimenez tied with Koepka, Bjorn won, Havret lost by a shot and Harrington had Lee in his group (Lee shot 61!!!!!!)

Bank 606.16 - 10 = 596.16

4th round 3 balls omega masters
Bet 50: Karlberg, Lewis, Havret, Canizares

2e trebles, 2e accum

Johnny86

Johnny86 wrote: »

Only 2/4 today so no good; Jimenez tied with Koepka, Bjorn won, Havret lost by a shot and Harrington had Lee in his group (Lee shot 61!!!!!!)

Bank 606.16 - 10 = 596.16

4th round 3 balls omega masters
Bet 50: Karlberg, Lewis, Havret, Canizares

2e trebles, 2e accum

So so close to the biggest payout yet!!
Karlberg, Lewis and Havret all won comfortably enough so it all came to Canizares. He started very well and was 2 ahead of his partners after 11 holes...then all 3 of them were level playing the last...then Dubuisson birdied the f*cking last with Canizares only parring!
Profit but overall I've had a weekend of bad beats (not this log)!

Bank: 596.16 - 10 + 42.53 = 628.69

Johnny86

Bank 628.69

KLM Open 1st round 3 balls

Bet 51: Van Zyl, Casey, Fleetwoood, Dyson

2e trebles, 2e accum

Johnny86

Johnny86 wrote: »

Bank 628.69

KLM Open 1st round 3 balls

Bet 51: Van Zyl, Casey, Fleetwoood, Dyson

2e trebles, 2e accum

Another frustrating one, Dyson and Casey won but Van Zyl was one shot off and Fleetwood 2 shots off.

Bank 628.69-10 = 618.69

I backed another 4 today but they're already on the course so won't include as part of the log (its Karlbeg, Aiken, Quiros and Howell)

Johnny86

Ill resurrect this log! Overall it went well last year but started to tail off towards the end (still +500e profit).

Anyway I'll start off at 10e in the bank.

2nd Round 2-balls Hydundai Tournament of Champs
D Johnson 10/11
B Gay 1/1
W Simpson 10/11
B Horschel 11/10

2e trebles and 2e accum (total 10e)

I think the course really suits Johnson (v Sneds) and Simpson (v Speith) so more than happy to take close to even money on them. Gay & Horschel are both evenly matched with their opponents. The fact they'd good back nines is why I'm choosing them instead of Duke and Walker respectively.

Johnny86

Johnny86 wrote: »

Ill resurrect this log! Overall it went well last year but started to tail off towards the end (still +500e profit).

Anyway I'll start off at 10e in the bank.

2nd Round 2-balls Hydundai Tournament of Champs
D Johnson 10/11
B Gay 1/1
W Simpson 10/11
B Horschel 11/10

2e trebles and 2e accum (total 10e)

I think the course really suits Johnson (v Sneds) and Simpson (v Speith) so more than happy to take close to even money on them. Gay & Horschel are both evenly matched with their opponents. The fact they'd good back nines is why I'm choosing them instead of Duke and Walker respectively.

Had posted the results of this and my fancies for the 3rd round but it got deleted when the site went down. Anyway
Johnson & Horschel won (DJ easily, Billy was well ahead but just won by a shot in the end). Spieth beat Simpson by one shot and Gay was well beaten. Any no winnings there as I need min. 3 to come in.

So yesterday I picked Horschel (won v Laird), Woodland (won v English), Reed (won v Bae) and Kuchar (lost v Spieth)...some winnings for that bet, everyone about even money. Going against Spieth has cost me the last 2 days!! So annoying to see Gay shoot -8 yesterday also!! In fact all 4 lads I picked in round 2 won their 2 balls yesterday!

So now I need to decide should I go for Spieth or not.