'Market has gone mad in Dublin' Any truth?

LowKeyReturn

As per title really. Any truth that the housing market in Dublin is picking up? Specifically for houses, I know apartments are still a bit of a nightmare.

I've looked at a couple of absolute dogs recently, we're looking for a do-up job, but all have gone sale agreed. I've heard people are paying 5 - 15% over asking.

To be even more specific we're looking in D7/8.

Ritchi

There is a severe lack of good houses in certain areas of Dublin at the minute, and lots of people looking to buy them. Supply is low and demand is high -> higher prices than they should be.

Scortho

Yep the market in dublin has gone mad, especially desirable areas on the south side. Supply is really tight at the moment, the lack of repossessions is compounding this.
Young Professional couples want to buy but don't want to buy apartments. If you look around the likes of ternure, templeogue church town etc, there's been no new builds in years.
There's still a good supply of apartments, but the people who can afford to buy these aren't looking for apartments as a family home.
There's a house for sale on park avenue in rathfarnham at the moment. It's asking price is 51% higher than a house 7 doors down which sold in 2011. Link from the pin: http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=58832&sid=81650da985527e09264ee40158a565fd&start=15

Some sellers are delusional at the moment, but equally there's loads of buyers out there getting into bidding wars pushing up the price.

the groutch

there has been a small pickup in houses in certain desireable areas, but they're mostly cash buyers or people who are a lender's dream and have been just trying to find the bottom. but even that will be short lived imo.
For the market as a whole I could see it slow levelling off and then staying stagnant for upwards of 5 years.

LowKeyReturn

Thanks for the replies to be specific about our circumstances:

Cash buyers c. €100,000 D7/8 (not worried about the area being ideal we can live with that) looking for a fix up house.

This was ideal but has been sold.

The Cool

I know you're talking about the buying market, though just to add - I'm trying to get around the rental market at the minute and also finding it very difficult. We moved over to the area last May and ended up settling in Maynooth, we are now trying to move into Dublin city or county and finding prices have gone up quite a bit, speaking broadly, from the prices we were looking at 12 months ago. The place we have been in for the past year is great for the money we pay for it, but we'd have to go up quite a bit to get the same quality now, and likewise the shape of some of the places that are now pushing our budget is mental.

Best of luck with your househunt, hope you get something decent without getting ripped off.

Glenbhoy

Is it just me or has anyone else noted that the whole frenzy seems to have eased significantly over the past month?

There's no doubting that Feb/Mar were pretty hectic and getting a bit nuts, but to my mind it really seems to have eased off somewhat?

Scortho

Glenbhoy wrote: »

Is it just me or has anyone else noted that the whole frenzy seems to have eased significantly over the past month?

There's no doubting that Feb/Mar were pretty hectic and getting a bit nuts, but to my mind it really seems to have eased off somewhat?

Nope it hasn't. What im seeing at the moment is a crap supply of crap houses that arent staying on the market very long and not very low prices to explain their brief stay on the market.

Im a few years of buying yet (still in college) but of the houses in south dublin that I've been tracking, many have gone sale agreed in recent weeks.
The asking prices for these houses was significantly higher than what similar houses in a similar condition on the same roads sold for in 2011 and early 2012. Now because they've only gone sale agreed, i cant get the agreed price, but if the asking is anything to go by, it will be at least 10-20% higher than what a similar one sold for 12-24 months ago. And house prices havent rose that much in the last year or two.

This house here has just gone sale agreed (saw the sign yesterday).
http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/8-barton-road-rathfarnham-dublin-14/2413669
The house listed here (19 barton road,) was in a similar condition (cosmetically, dont know about structurally), and sold for nearly 100k less than number 8's asking price. No.8 has a north facing garden, no. 19 has a south facing garden.
http://www.propertypriceregister.ie/Website/npsra/PPR/npsra-ppr.nsf/eStampUNID/UNID-7967258C3D24865D80257A7D0057D1DC?OpenDocument

Similarly this house in blackrock sold for 2.9 million.
http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/highest-auction-price-of-year-as-home-in-need-of-repair-fetches-29m-29289725.html
Now its nice, but theres no way Id pay 2.9 million for it.
When you can get the likes of the carrick, on the bailey of howth, which is 4000 sq ft, is in good condition, has stunning sea views and is on nearly 3 acres, for a million less, 2.9m for the house that needs 350k+ in blackrock, to me is the height of madness.
http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/carrick-old-carrickbrack-road-baily-howth-co-dublin/1920532

or if you prefer the modern life, this in portrane for 1.7m
http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/the-burrow-porters-lane-portrane-co-dublin/2290917

feckin hell you can pick up charlie haughys old pad, along with 80 acres, for the same price as the house in blackrock.

strandroad

Glenbhoy wrote: »

Is it just me or has anyone else noted that the whole frenzy seems to have eased significantly over the past month?

There's no doubting that Feb/Mar were pretty hectic and getting a bit nuts, but to my mind it really seems to have eased off somewhat?

Viewings are nowhere near as busy as back then and people are shaking their heads a lot if they attend. The supply is nonexistent though, I suppose viewers have just backed off in recognition of this fact. Houses are largely terribly substandard and there are some determined buyers fighting for the few decent ones, hence multiple biddings etc.

gurramok

Scortho wrote: »

Similarly this house in blackrock sold for 2.9 million.
http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/highest-auction-price-of-year-as-home-in-need-of-repair-fetches-29m-29289725.html
Now its nice, but theres no way Id pay 2.9 million for it.
When you can get the likes of the carrick, on the bailey of howth, which is 4000 sq ft, is in good condition, has stunning sea views and is on nearly 3 acres, for a million less, 2.9m for the house that needs 350k+ in blackrock, to me is the height of madness.
http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/carrick-old-carrickbrack-road-baily-howth-co-dublin/1920532

or if you prefer the modern life, this in portrane for 1.7m
http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/the-burrow-porters-lane-portrane-co-dublin/2290917

feckin hell you can pick up charlie haughys old pad, along with 80 acres, for the same price as the house in blackrock.

Sounds like a micro market for the rich there.

techdiver

Give it some time and it will cool down again.

It's amazing how, after all that has come to pass people are partaking in bidding wars for over priced houses once again.

Fool me once shame on you etc...

2 houses beside me sold this month. We all then got a letter in the door saying that if we are interested in selling they have buyers ready. I thought this was just a sales tactic. My other neighbor put his house up for sale, the sign was up 1 week and was sold. So thats 3 in the space of a month.

helimachoptor

one of the girls in work has been outbid by 100K on one house and 80k on another.
Both were houses that would have required complete gutting and refurbishment.. crazy times it seems

listermint

Edgits will never learn and they are taking about tax payer funded bale outs for negative equity......


christ.

techdiver

helimachoptor wrote: »

one of the girls in work has been outbid by 100K on one house and 80k on another.
Both were houses that would have required complete gutting and refurbishment.. crazy times it seems

This country will never learn!

I can't get my head around people slugging it out for very basic houses in Dublin for €350K+ (value my arse!). Are these all cash buyers or are borrowers once again stretching themselves to the limit to purchase a noose around their knecks?

These same people will be crying fowl in a few years time when interest rates increase (inevitable)!

Future financial planning and prudence is not an Irish strong point, of that I am in no doubt!

helimachoptor

The girl in work, was going in with very reasonable offers which take into account the cost of the refurb, but others were throwing cash at it like it was going out of fashion!

Piriz

it'll be nice to get a dead cat bounce out of the way over the next two years ...

listermint

helimachoptor wrote: »

The girl in work, was going in with very reasonable offers which take into account the cost of the refurb, but others were throwing cash at it like it was going out of fashion!

Well if she is smart she wont go chasing after it. Interest rates will rise and chasing after these fools is idiocy. No rush, rent and save and have a substantially larger deposit in the future without increasing the mortage.

gurramok

Thread title should read 'A Micro Market has gone mad in Dublin' rather than 'Market has gone mad in Dublin' as myhome tracker and the Property Bee still show a majority of asking price decreases for the region as a whole.

I bought just before Christmas, to be honest the house prices have gone up by 40 - 60k since then despite the loss of Mortgage Interest Relief.

Looking at some of the houses that have sold - things have changed dramatically since this time last year. Some good supply on the market should change that - unfortunately with the control Estate Agents have on perception we will still see some inflation.

techdiver

gurramok wrote: »

Thread title should read 'A Micro Market has gone mad in Dublin' rather than 'Market has gone mad in Dublin' as myhome tracker and the Property Bee still show a majority of asking price decreases for the region as a whole.

I agree that all the evidence still points towards and overall reduction, but there is the worrying, if albeit anecdotal trend, of many sales going above asking and bidding wars re-emerging.

bush Baby

techdiver wrote: »

This country will never learn!

I can't get my head around people slugging it out for very basic houses in Dublin for €350K+ (value my arse!). Are these all cash buyers or are borrowers once again stretching themselves to the limit to purchase a noose around their knecks?

These same people will be crying fowl in a few years time when interest rates increase (inevitable)!

Future financial planning and prudence is not an Irish strong point, of that I am in no doubt!

Not to mention property tax.....

gurramok

This is the first page of Myhome tracker from May 16th till 1pm today May 28th. I count 6 asking price rises and about 44 asking price drops for this particular area of Dublin South on the first page. Go back and browse more pages, strip out apartments, strip out "houses in need of refurbishment", strip out "dodgy" addresses, there are still plenty of houses available for sale. Link http://www.myhome.ie/pricechanges?RegionID=1406&LocalityIDs=

Dublin South picked as it has been mentioned so many times here.

Price Changes
Latest Price Changes: Dublin South, Dublin

12 Hillcrest Manor, Templeogue, Dublin 6W
-€30,000 -9.23% €325,000 → €295,000
4 minutes ago
45 Kimmage Road West, Kimmage, Dublin 6W
-€25,000 -5.26% €474,950 → €449,950
59 minutes ago
42 St. Mary's Road, Crumlin, Dublin 12
-€20,000 -9.09% €220,000 → €200,000
2 hours ago
Tregenna, 174 Merrion Road, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4
-€450,000 -23.08% €1,950,000 → €1,500,000
2 hours ago
17 Glenbourne Road, Leopardstown Valley, Leopardstown, Dublin 18
-€20,000 -5.01% €399,000 → €379,000
4 hours ago
71 Fosters Avenue, Mount Merrion, Co. Dublin
-€55,000 -5.79% €950,000 → €895,000
4 hours ago
22 Avoca Hall, Avoca Park, Blackrock, Co Dublin
-€15,000 -5.26% €285,000 → €270,000
7:10pm yesterday
1 The Mews Barton Drive, Rathfarnham, Dublin 14
-€24,950 -8.32% €299,950 → €275,000
7:02pm yesterday
144 Rathfarnham Road, Rathfarnham, Dublin 14
-€50,000 -12.5% €400,000 → €350,000
7:02pm yesterday
1 Greenlands, Castleside Drive, Rathfarnham, Dublin 16
-€20,000 -6.25% €319,950 → €299,950
11:40am yesterday
48 Cypress Grove Road,Templeogue
-€30,000 -7.06% €425,000 → €395,000
25 May
Bayview Drive, Killiney, Dublin South
€30,000 9.23% €325,000 → €355,000
24 May
121 Benmadigan Road, Drimnagh, Dublin 12
-€20,000 -11.77% €169,950 → €149,950
23 May
1 Simmonscourt Terrace, Donnybrook, Dublin 4
-€25,000 -7.81% €320,000 → €295,000
23 May
23 The Gardens, Carrickmines Manor, Glenamuck Road
-€10,000 -3.08% €325,000 → €315,000
23 May
5 Coolgraney, off Nutgrove Park, Clonskeagh, Dublin 14
-€75,000 -6.52% €1,150,000 → €1,075,000
22 May
6 Emerald Lodge, Killiney, Co. Dublin
-€6,000 -2.45% €245,000 → €239,000
22 May
59 Wingfield, Stepaside, Dublin 18
-€10,000 -5.03% €199,000 → €189,000
22 May
The Waterside, Charlotte Quay, Grand Canal Dk, Dublin 4
-€25,000 -14.29% €175,000 → €150,000
22 May
36 Les Buissonnets, Off Sweetmans Avenue, Blackrock, Co Dublin
-€30,000 -9.23% €325,000 → €295,000
22 May
2 Old Court Cottages, Firhouse, Dublin 24
-€49,000 -16.39% €299,000 → €250,000
21 May
24 Foxrock Court, Foxrock, Dublin 18
-€30,000 -4.44% €675,000 → €645,000
21 May
Colhugh, Kilmore Avenue, Killiney, Co Dublin
-€125,000 -10% €1,250,000 → €1,125,000
21 May
125 Francis Street, Christchurch, Dublin 8
€20,000 18.18% €110,000 → €130,000
21 May
5 Rosmeen Gardens, Dun Laoghaire, Co Dublin
-€50,000 -5.59% €895,000 → €845,000
21 May
5 Newtown Villas, Blackrock, Co Dublin
€100,000 66.67% €150,000 → €250,000
20 May
3 Trees Road, Mount Merrion, Co Dublin
-€30,000 -4.8% €625,000 → €595,000
20 May
8 Herberton Drive, Crumlin, Dublin 12
-€10,000 -3.85% €259,950 → €249,950
20 May
Belgrave Villa, 35 Monkstown Avenue, Monkstown, Co. Dublin
-€30,000 -5.5% €545,000 → €515,000
20 May
8 Airpark Rise, Stocking Lane, Rathfarnham, Dublin 16
-€20,000 -6.25% €319,950 → €299,950
20 May
32 Osprey Avenue, Templeogue, Dublin 6W
-€20,000 -5.06% €394,950 → €374,950
20 May
Honeypark, Dun Laoghaire, Co. Dublin
€35,000 7.37% €475,000 → €510,000
20 May
Sandyford View, Sandyford, Dublin 18
-€10,000 -6.25% €160,000 → €150,000
20 May
Honeypark - Honeypark, Dun Laoghaire, Co. Dublin
€35,000 7.37% €475,000 → €510,000
20 May
14 Crosbie House, Ranelagh, Dublin 6
-€10,000 -5.26% €190,000 → €180,000
17 May
26 Hermitage Lawn, Rathfarnham, Dublin 16
-€60,000 -10.08% €595,000 → €535,000
17 May
11 Belgrave Square, Monkstown, Co. Dublin
-€205,000 -12.06% €1,700,000 → €1,495,000
17 May
42 St. Mary's Road, Crumlin, Dublin 12
-€10,000 -4.35% €230,000 → €220,000
17 May
7 Chelmsford Avenue, Ranelagh, Dublin 6
-€30,000 -7.06% €425,000 → €395,000
17 May
2 Cherrywood, Loughlinstown, Co. Dublin
-€5,000 -2.13% €235,000 → €230,000
17 May
Moira Villas, South City Centre - D8, Dublin 8
€2,000 1.29% €155,000 → €157,000
17 May
Bloomfield, 67 South Circular Road, Portobello, Dublin 8
-€65,000 -7.1% €915,000 → €850,000
17 May
67 The Pavillion, Marine Road, Dun Laoghaire, Co Dublin
-€36,000 -10.75% €335,000 → €299,000
17 May
Whitechurch Road, Rathfarnham
-€175,000 -10.45% €1,675,000 → €1,500,000
16 May
11 Cunningham Park, Cabinteely, Dublin 18
-€40,000 -10.96% €365,000 → €325,000
16 May
19A Long Lane, South City Centre - D8, Dublin 8
-€10,000 -6.71% €149,000 → €139,000
16 May
19A Heytsbury Place, South City Centre, Dublin 2
-€10,000 -6.71% €149,000 → €139,000
16 May
29 Hermitage Drive, Rathfarnham, Dublin 16
-€26,000 -4.95% €525,000 → €499,000
16 May
13 Reuben Street, Dublin 8
-€40,000 -17.02% €235,000 → €195,000
16 May
Lansdowne Valley, Drimnagh, Dublin 12

ted1

With the current trend if properties going above asking price, drops are probably just being used as lures.

theholyghost

A friend of mine just bought in around Malahide, he's been watching houses and looking for something to buy for over a year and he is adamant that house prices are falling continuously. I know that's just an annecdote but he is convinced of it from actually watching the houses in his area.

lima

Deleted User wrote: »

I bought just before Christmas, to be honest the house prices have gone up by 40 - 60k since then despite the loss of Mortgage Interest Relief.

Looking at some of the houses that have sold - things have changed dramatically since this time last year. Some good supply on the market should change that - unfortunately with the control Estate Agents have on perception we will still see some inflation.

Haha, you wish!

BostonB

In Dublin you can walk a short distance and be in a completely different area price wise and desirability.

So looking at the wider picture isn't that helpful. You need to understand the local situation.

NinjaTruncs

A house in Marley in Rathfarnham, D16, recently sold for 20K more that a similar house in the same estate from two years ago. The difference in houses, the house from two years ago was ready to walk into, converted garage and fully landscaped rear garden, I would say the only work needed was new painting and that would be preferential, the recent house needed at least 50K of work to do done to it, making it an almost 70K differential, or ~20%.

Another house in Kingston went for almost 40K over it's asking price.

So there is a little truth that houses are shifting in Dublin 16 and some are selling for either over their asking or higher than similar from a few years ago.

However there are areas in Dublin 16 where asking prices are not being reached, so as Boston B said a short distance can have a big difference on prices.

Citycap

A lot of couples who moved into apartments are now looking for houses due to having kids or intending to have kids.
A competitive market is no harm as long as mortgages are approved on the basis of genuine income and not made up figures of commission, occasional overtime etc.
There will always be begrudgers who don't want anyone to be better off then them

Citycap

BostonB wrote: »

In Dublin you can walk a short distance and be in a completely different area price wise and desirability.

So looking at the wider picture isn't that helpful. You need to understand the local situation.

Absolutely correct. Every area is a separate market with different attractions, facilities. Some areas might have demand from people who grew up in the area and want to be near family. Others will have demand because of shopping, recreational facilities etc

hfallada

Where I live its a housing development of about 80 houses and the first house has gone up for sale in 3 years. Its asking price is €650,000 which is €100,000 more than the last house that sold. Although it has an extra bedroom and the garden is slightly longer. Its hasnt been updated since the early 1950s.

LowKeyReturn

I'm back looking in D7 (Cabra) and around D3 - actually seeing some half decent (as far as I'm concerned) stuff for about €150K. I think thats more of my league rather than a 1840's listed building!

dazberry

LowKeyReturn wrote: »

I'm back looking in D7 (Cabra) and around D3 - actually seeing some half decent (as far as I'm concerned) stuff for about €150K. I think thats more of my league rather than a 1840's listed building!

Up to 12 months ago in the D8 area - (which I understand was part of your original search) you would have had a lot of choice. 18 months ago when we bought, I think we had a list of about 10 properties in the same estate. Now there is very little, and all this "madness" appears to be simply down to a very limited supply at the moment. I've seen it go in cycles so it's possible in a years time things **may** calm down???

D.

Outkast_IRE

I would personally hold tight for another year and hope that some repossessions start happening .

pburns

Speaking as someone recently gone sale agreed (because for personal reasons it was time & not a permanent home)...

It's all about supply - the end of MIR hoovered up a lot of properties and got the ball rolling. There are people on good incomes who have been saving the last 4 yrs and have excellent credit ratings and/or a wad of cash.

The 'madness' is really only effecting houses and larger apts in a few of the fashionable areas (asking prices in Gallery Quay have sky-rocketed for example, above-and-beyond what I personally would consider nicer areas a short walk away).

However the banks are more stringent than ever about giving out money, much more so even than 9 months ago. That's a good thing, it should prevent prices spiralling in the long term. The only reason things are 'mad' at the moment is because there is a shortage and there is a spiral of mild panic.

NAMA/vested intersts have a certain amount of control to manipulate the market but I think it'll hinge on other factors. There needs to be more mobility for mortgage-holders to trade up from apts>houses and let younger people into the cycle to replace them.

I think early 2012 was the bottom and 2013 is a mini-boom. I don't think there is the impetus or finance avalable for huge rises in the coming years.

techdiver

Citycap wrote: »

A lot of couples who moved into apartments are now looking for houses due to having kids or intending to have kids.
A competitive market is no harm as long as mortgages are approved on the basis of genuine income and not made up figures of commission, occasional overtime etc.
There will always be begrudgers who don't want anyone to be better off then them

Are you serious?

It's nothing to do with begrudgers! If we have learned anything over the last number of years is that a frenzied property market is detrimental to the wider economy. If anything if people are paying over the odds for houses it means they are less well off than the rest as they have leveraged themselves to the eyeballs for overpriced property.

Personally I thin the banks calculations for mortgages are too lenient still. 4 - 5 times joint income is not prudent!

L1011

Citycap wrote: »

There will always be begrudgers who don't want anyone to be better off then them

This insane attitude was a major cause of the problems of the boom. Treat everyone calling for sanity as a "begrudger" and ignore the actual problem.

If that's coming around again I presume we can start buying penthouses in Bulgaria and taking shopping trips to Dubai again?

astrofool

techdiver wrote: »

Personally I thin the banks calculations for mortgages are too lenient still. 4 - 5 times joint income is not prudent!

The banks are being very coy about lending at the moment, and it's based on what you've been saving and % of pay that is not consumed by ongoing costs rather than simple multiples. They also seem to be looking at what people spend their money on, e.g. gambling websites = unlucky to get a loan.

techdiver

astrofool wrote: »

The banks are being very coy about lending at the moment, and it's based on what you've been saving and % of pay that is not consumed by ongoing costs rather than simple multiples. They also seem to be looking at what people spend their money on, e.g. gambling websites = unlucky to get a loan.

I hope so.

Just from anecdotal reading of threads here and on thepropertypin, it seems some are getting approved for larger multiples.

I'd just love to know where all this money is coming from to fund so many bidding wars on property prices in the range of 350K+.

BostonB

Back in 2000 it was 2.5x one salary + 1x another salary, what was with interest rates of 3~5%. Only a few years before that people had rates of 8% and even more. 4~5x joint income seems high.

I'm sure there's people with money, who've done well, who are able to pick up choice properties in select areas at the moment. Very few I'd guess (hope) are people borrowing to their eye balls to get into property.

If you did have money, its probably a good time to buy. But only in the best locations, and the best properties. Which I think is reflected in the sales reported above.

LowKeyReturn

BostonB wrote: »

If you did have money, its probably a good time to buy. But only in the best locations, and the best properties. Which I think is reflected in the sales reported above.

I simply don't understand the desire to spend €500,000-€600,000 on a property in 'the best area' when you can get a four bedroom house somewhere else for 150K. Now don't get me wrong, there are places I've looked at and though - not a chance - but there are certain areas that are grand.

I am from a working class background so maybe this explains it?

Having been speaking to a couple of EA and the advice here does seem to suggest a supply issue. I think it's just a case of hanging on as some have suggested. I've heard some stories of Landlords having issues which may provide some properties in the places, price and condition I'm looking for.

techdiver

LowKeyReturn wrote: »

Having been speaking to a couple of EA and the advice here does seem to suggest a supply issue. I think it's just a case of hanging on as some have suggested. I've heard some stories of Landlords having issues which may provide some properties in the places, price and condition I'm looking for.

I agree.

I think it is best to hold off at the moment until this idiocy cools down once again. All indicators point towards downward pressure on prices in the near future.

1. Emigration (300,000 in the past 4 years, mostly young people who would be prime FTB's)
2. Economy still in the doldrums
3. Unemployment remaining high
4. Lack of credit from banks
5. Property tax (it will increase in the coming years)
6. Interest rates are at a record low and can't stay that way for ever
7. More money to be taken out of the economy in next next few budgets

With all this happening, I firmly believe this is a classic dead cat bounce, being fueled by cash buyers and people who are displaying bubble type behavioural patterns (lessons not learned!).

LowKeyReturn

To be fair every place I've now rung up for that was sale agreed has gone for under asking. Then if you looked at the state of some of the places I'm after :eek:

nudger

There are quite a few people out there with money ready to go.
I put up a property for sale and had it sold in under a month 10% above the price I would have been happy with.
In fairness the EA we used done a great job, there were 2 other houses for sale on the same road, 1 went for €80000 less than mine and the other is still for sale.
We had 3 couples bidding against each other all with cash no loans involved.

LowKeyReturn

After getting badly stung in the boom in a bidding war, lesson learned. If it goes above what I want to pay I'm walking away. Thankfully this time because we're going mortgage free I'm pretty constrained in that regard.

BostonB

LowKeyReturn wrote: »

...I simply don't understand the desire to spend €500,000-€600,000 on a property in 'the best area' when you can get a four bedroom house somewhere else for 150K. ...

Can't help you with that. The factors at play are simple enough. Desirability, location, convenience, location, quality and size of property, catchment of schools and transport links, location.

LowKeyReturn

BostonB wrote: »

Can't help you with that. The factors at play are simple enough. Desirability, location, convenience, location, quality and size of property, catchment of schools and transport links, location.

But it really only comes down to desirability? Some of the worst areas in Dublin are the most convenient. Surely is you save 300K on the property you are buying the children can be packed off to a very nice public (private here?) School?

Okay to be fair quality and size are also important but again nice sized houses are out there.

nudger

Plenty of good buys in D7, old area with owners dieing, families selling off cheap.
A 4 bed that was €500,000 6 years ago went for €180,000 around Christmas last, big gardens room to improve.

RATM

techdiver wrote: »

I agree.

I think it is best to hold off at the moment until this idiocy cools down once again. All indicators point towards downward pressure on prices in the near future.

1. Emigration (300,000 in the past 4 years, mostly young people who would be prime FTB's)
2. Economy still in the doldrums
3. Unemployment remaining high
4. Lack of credit from banks
5. Property tax (it will increase in the coming years)
6. Interest rates are at a record low and can't stay that way for ever
7. More money to be taken out of the economy in next next few budgets

With all this happening, I firmly believe this is a classic dead cat bounce, being fueled by cash buyers and people who are displaying bubble type behavioural patterns (lessons not learned!).

Couldn't agree more with this, I also reckon it is a DCB since the end of MIR in 2012. In fact over 100 years of economic analysis of property crashes in countries around the world shows us that it is almost unheard of not to have a dead cat bounce in a long bear. A 4 year backlog since credit stopped flowing means there is a large backlog of buyers and the available stock has shrunk due to a combination of no new building and family break-ups, divorces, which place additional pressure on supply.

Other factors to consider are the avalanche of repos that have yet to begin. Although this is likely to mainly effect apartment prices it will undoubtedly have an overall effect on the market.

Interest rates are another factor. We at least know that they are at a historic low and can now only head in one direction.

LowKeyReturn

I just don't get this South Co. Dublin lark - that said each to their own and housed out there will always be desirable so it's not bad advice to buy out there if you can afford it. I'll be quite happy in a nice Semi-D until I can build up a practice down the country and get the dream:

http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=599024

and

http://www.cata-lagoon.com/lagoon_421_amenagement_uk.php

Shedite27

In my opinion a lot of the "desirable" areas are for people who aren't familiar with Dublin. I've been in Dublin about 3 years, and wouldn't know half as much as locals. Every "non-dub" friend I have would be looking for the traditional areas (Luas green line), whereas dub would know areas mentioned here (Dub 7, 3, 5 etc).

RATM wrote: »

Interest rates are another factor. We at least know that they are at a historic low and can now only head in one direction.

I agree that interest rates will likely rise in the next few eyars, but I've also heard that at least one major financial institution is making an IT change to their system to be able to handle negative interest rates. Not sure how that would work in practice.