statistical question

kingsenny

bogwalrus wrote: »

This is something that I missed when looking at it. I will say it to my buddy because he thinks the odds are the same.

This is a big flaw.

The Red/Black Odd/Even refers to the left most column, not the actual numbers

locum-motion

kingsenny wrote: »

The Red/Black Odd/Even refers to the left most column, not the actual numbers

When you're playing Roulette, the left-most column is where you place your chips to indicate that you're betting Odd or Even, this is true. But what you are betting on is whether the actual number will be an even one or an odd one. So I'm not sure I understand you.

kingsenny

Sorry I'm not sure if I'm explaining it correctly.

In normal roulette, it's possible to simply place a chip on the Odd/Even section without choosing a specific number. It's (obviously) a 1 in 2 chance and i think it pays out 1/3

locum-motion

kingsenny wrote: »

Sorry I'm not sure if I'm explaining it correctly.

In normal roulette, it's possible to simply place a chip on the Odd/Even section without choosing a specific number...

Yes, absolutely correct.

kingsenny wrote: »

It's (obviously) a 1 in 2 chance and i think it pays out 1/3

It's not a 1 in 2 chance, it's 18 in 37 (because there's a 0 on the table*)
And it doesn't pay 1/3. It pays evens. Put a euro on, and you win a euro if it comes up (you also get your own euro back, of course.)

* American tablets have a 0 and a 00, so they have 38 slots on the wheel, not 37. Therefore the odds become 18 in 38, not 18 in 37. Payout remains the same.

Check here
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roulette#Bet_odds_table for the actual odds of all possible outcomes for both European and American tables, and what the payouts are.

kingsenny

Ha... sh*t. I just realized where I was going wrong. My bad! Yeah, it seems you're right

CJC86

locum-motion wrote: »

And my "Why not just play Roulette?" point still applies.

You have to pay out all winning bets on the spot. Casinos win in the long run because they have loads of capital.

locum-motion

CJC86 wrote: »

You have to pay out all winning bets on the spot. Casinos win in the long run because they have loads of capital.

And?
You do realise that the OP's mate is going to have to have enough capital put aside to pay for at least two prizes before he starts the game; even though the odds are 500 to one, there's no reason why two of the first 10 players couldn't win.

Also, casinos win because of the existence of the 0 on the board. That's the 'house margin'. The actual odds on a single number bet are 36/1, and the odds they pay are 35/1. The actual odds on a red/black bet are 19/18, but they pay evens (1/1). Of course, having loads of capital helps, because even if they lose to you at the beginning, they have enough capital to let you keep playing until you eventually lose, but the point is that you will eventually lose, and the reason that you will eventually lose is that the basic mathematics of the game are in their favour, not yours.

CJC86

locum-motion wrote: »

And?
You do realise that the OP's mate is going to have to have enough capital put aside to pay for at least two prizes before he starts the game; even though the odds are 500 to one, there's no reason why two of the first 10 players couldn't win.

Also, casinos win because of the existence of the 0 on the board. That's the 'house margin'. The actual odds on a single number bet are 36/1, and the odds they pay are 35/1. The actual odds on a red/black bet are 19/18, but they pay evens (1/1). Of course, having loads of capital helps, because even if they lose to you at the beginning, they have enough capital to let you keep playing until you eventually lose, but the point is that you will eventually lose, and the reason that you will eventually lose is that the basic mathematics of the game are in their favour, not yours.

Of course I know how casinos actually win. Now that you've pointed out how much he'd have to have for the current game he's offering (2 trips, maybe 3 if he's really unlucky), please offer me a quick back of the envelope calculation for how much he'd need to cover an actual game of roulette?

locum-motion

CJC86 wrote: »

Of course I know how casinos actually win. Now that you've pointed out how much he'd have to have for the current game he's offering (2 trips, maybe 3 if he's really unlucky), please offer me a quick back of the envelope calculation for how much he'd need to cover an actual game of roulette?

Performing such a calculation for Roulette is complicated by the fact that there are different types of bet available and that punters may choose to place bets of different sizes, but let's just perform the calc for the 'single number' bet (as that the one with the highest payout, so a bad run early on could be disastrous), and assume that the maximum stake has been set at €1.

The odds on a single number bet are 36/1. For every 37 bets that are placed, 1 of them is a winner and 36 of them are losers. The payout from the winning bet is €35 and the income from the losing bets is €36.

If 1 bet wins out of every 37 placed, then 10 win out of every 370, 100 out of every 3,700 etc. What we are trying to calculate is the size of the cushion of capital required to cover payouts if there's a really bad run in the early stages of the game. What constitutes a really bad run? Let's say a really bad run is that, out of the first 3,700 bets, the expected 100 winners all happen in the first 100 bets (and then, of course, we could expect 3,500 losing bets in a row after that!) The capital cushion needed to cover that eventuality is 100x €35 or €3,500. Now I'm afraid I'd need to bow to someone like Yakuza to calculate the odds of that actually happening, but I'm sure that the chances are much slimmer than the odds of the OP's mate getting 2-3 winners in his first 10 players.

But, regardless of the mathematical chance of 100 bets in a row being winners (or losers if you're looking from the casino's POV), it would never actually occur, because of the way Roulette is actually played. It's not just one player/one bet/one spin of the wheel. For each spin, there could be up to 6 or 8 people playing, and each of those can place as many or as few chips on the table as they wish. Therefore, for each spin on a busy roulette table, virtually all of the numbers will have at least one chip on them. Even if we take the case that the table's not so busy and only half the numbers have bets placed on them, that still means that there'll be about 17 losing bets for each winning one. The only way to have 100 bets in a row win would be if all of those 6-8 people decided to place only one bet per spin, and for them all to choose the same number, and for that number to come up, and for that to happen multiple times in a row. (If that happens, then it's time to book your table for breakfast at Milliway's.)

kingsenny

1/(37^100) I think. Ridiculously large at any rate