York Day 2

longshotvalue

3:15 York

Brea Hill is always worth a look in these events, particularly on softer ground. This race does seem a bit low hardened handicappers that normally win this type of race and his price of 16/1 looks a few points too big . He ran a great race in the Lincoln to be 3rd and although he was poor last time out these races can be a bit of a minefield and a few blips are standard. He seems to have what could be a decent draw for one who will look to make it, and be difficult to pass.

1 Point Win 16/1 Sky/BetV/StanJames

longshotvalue

1:45 York

Going for a couple of longer shots here in what looks a tough race. Stone of Folca has an excellent record fresh and after initially starting great last year went into decline a bit but then came back with a couple of decent runs towards the end of last year. He is still only a 5yo and in sprinting terms could have some improvement in his yet. I’m willing to take a chance he might act on the softer than ideal ground at his current price of 16/1.


I’m also going with one I’ve tipped a few times in Fitz Flyer, he is down to his lowest ever mark and although he needs luck in running with his run style he looks worth a shot at 20/1. He’ll pop up in one of these soon enough and I’ll be there when he does. His last run was about as good as could be expected with a bad draw at Chester. He has form on softer ground and what could be a very decent draw.


½ Point win Stone Of Folca 16/1 Ladbrokes

½ Point EW Fitz Flyer 20/1 Ladbrokes

Overthelast

Going to back Greatwood to win the Dante tomorrow. Cracking race in store.

madmoose

Any one think cape tribulation will go well in the last at york? Hes had a long season like but at 9/1 looks an ew bet with 4 places. Hidden justice is the fav who didnt get involved in the triumph but had won two hurdle races before that.

fangee

aidankkk wrote: »

1:45 York

Going for a couple of longer shots here in what looks a tough race. Stone of Folca has an excellent record fresh and after initially starting great last year went into decline a bit but then came back with a couple of decent runs towards the end of last year. He is still only a 5yo and in sprinting terms could have some improvement in his yet. I’m willing to take a chance he might act on the softer than ideal ground at his current price of 16/1.


I’m also going with one I’ve tipped a few times in Fitz Flyer, he is down to his lowest ever mark and although he needs luck in running with his run style he looks worth a shot at 20/1. He’ll pop up in one of these soon enough and I’ll be there when he does. His last run was about as good as could be expected with a bad draw at Chester. He has form on softer ground and what could be a very decent draw.


½ Point win Stone Of Folca 16/1 Ladbrokes

½ Point EW Fitz Flyer 20/1 Ladbrokes

Aidan, Story with the draw ? I though it was favouring high numbers ?

Slattsy

My original fancy in the Dante would have been Trading Leather but i think the ground has gone against him.

I fancied O'Briens Nevis to beat Greatwood anyway at Lingfield on Saturday last before he(Greatwood) was pulled out on because of the ground, so it may not suit him either.

And alll Windhoeks wins have been on good to firm, so again more doubts.

One horse that will love the bit of cut is Indian Chief, who won on heavy impressively last time and i really fancy him to take this. He'll come on a bundle for that return and i though he showed a smashing turn of foot.

3/1 at the moment

Overthelast

Forecast dry and good ground tomorrow. No cut forecast Slattsy.


Not trying to put you off Indian Chief BTW.

3ndahalfof6

Throwing up for all races, I will be doing a wee EW accum, and picking 2 to win and a double,

MAGICAL MACEY 12/1

AMBIVALENT 9/1

TRADING LEATHER 5/1

FORT BASTION 6/1

COSMIC CHATTER 9/1

MUSICAL MOLLY

PORCINI 25/1


2:15 AMBIVIALENT 9/1

5:00 PORCICNI 25/1

singles and a double.

Slattsy

Overthelast wrote: »

Forecast dry and good ground tomorrow. No cut forecast Slattsy.


Not trying to put you off Indian Chief BTW.

No bother.
It was good to soft today though wasnt it, cant see it drying too much.
Will stick with Indian Chief regardless.

Niallers87

Tony Martin is running Wrong Turn again tomorrow in 7.10 in Tipp, was gambled on heavily on sunday when winning in Killarney and is only up 6lbs should prob take this too but 4/6 is very short!

the groutch

when Tony Martin's horses are odd on they usually get beat.

and the Dante looks like one of the weakest in years, so is a no bet.

probably gonna save my money for a big bet on a horse in my tracker that runs on Friday.

Slattsy

Fran Berry going over for JPs horse Well Sharp in the last is interesting.
Must be half fancied or he wouldn't be going over. At 14s he's worth some interest.

rossom

With regards to your query Fangee, I would have said there was a definite bias towards the higher drawn numbers in the sprints today and you'd expect it would be the same tomorrow.

mr.jingle

If I were backing and I ain't i'd be doing these
1-45 Goldream 16/1
2.15 Cubanita 7/2 Nb
2.45 Indian Chief 3/1
3.15 Fort Bastion 6/1
3.50 Sound of Guns 7/2 Nap
4.25 Soul Brother
5.00 Come Here Yew 12/1

So you can pick around these losers :P

fangee

rossom wrote: »

With regards to your query Fangee, I would have said there was a definite bias towards the higher drawn numbers in the sprints today and you'd expect it would be the same tomorrow.

I thought that first time round but having rechecked the results I don't think it's conclusive.

The two 6 furlong races had a good mix of high and low drawn in the first 6 finishing positions.

The 5 furlong race actually looks to have favoured the low drawn horses.

Looks like a coin toss.

3ndahalfof6

aidankkk wrote: »

3:15 York

Brea Hill is always worth a look in these events, particularly on softer ground. This race does seem a bit low hardened handicappers that normally win this type of race and his price of 16/1 looks a few points too big . He ran a great race in the Lincoln to be 3rd and although he was poor last time out these races can be a bit of a minefield and a few blips are standard. He seems to have what could be a decent draw for one who will look to make it, and be difficult to pass.

1 Point Win 16/1 Sky/BetV/StanJames

In the drunkness of the wine I have done RF and doubles on you picks, I tried to do an EW treble but she (the lady on the end of the phone) told me to cop the fook on, so I hung up and cried, but I still got the bets on,

I just hope I did not put the whan on you

paddymayoman

aidankkk wrote: »

3:15 York

Brea Hill is always worth a look in these events, particularly on softer ground. This race does seem a bit low hardened handicappers that normally win this type of race and his price of 16/1 looks a few points too big . He ran a great race in the Lincoln to be 3rd and although he was poor last time out these races can be a bit of a minefield and a few blips are standard. He seems to have what could be a decent draw for one who will look to make it, and be difficult to pass.

1 Point Win 16/1 Sky/BetV/StanJames

The bookies must be keeping an eye on your tips, Brae Hill is now at 12/1!

rossom

3.15 York

Fort Bastion 11/2

Its a little odd that Sir Robert Ogdon has moved this 4 year old from Richard Hannon's to Ed Dunlop's but the fact he hasn't been gelded and his entry in the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes lead me to think he's still very well thought of. Its probably going to take a Group Class horse to win this under top weight off a mark of 106 but I think Dunlop's newly acquired Colt is just that. When trained by Hannon, Fort Bastion showed some very useful form as a Juvenile when finishing runner up to the excellent Maybe on his 2nd start and confirmed that promise with a very good 2nd in the Group 3 Acomb Stakes at York in a race that has worked out well. His final start as a 2 year old came in a Group 1 at Longchamp and although last of the 7 (only beaten a little over 3L), I think it says a lot about the regard he was held in. Fort Bastion certainly progressed as a 3 year old where he only had 2 starts but he ran out an impressive victor on both outings. He won a poor Maiden in facile fashion by 12L last May but he was a very impressive winner of a 3 runner Conditions race on his final start later that month. In a race run at a good clip, Richard Hughes made a race winning move as he allowed his mount to quicken up at the 2f pole and Fort Bastion did so in fine style as he lengthened away from his rivals in a short space of time. The runner up Starbound (whose jockey William Buick was probably caught napping) couldn't bridge the gap as Fort Bastion ran out a convincing 4L winner. That form took a substantial boost with Starbound winning a Group 3 at Longchamp comfortably later that year and I certainly think the best is yet to come. He'll have to defy a long absence to win this having been last seen a day short of a year but the booking of Ryan Moore certainly seems to suggest he'll be fully wound up and I think he's got a great chance of landing this very competitive Listed Handicap from a good draw in stall 1.

3.50 York

Sound Of Guns 7/2 NAP

I am a massive, massive fan of Ed Walker's 3 year old filly and if the rain stays away then I think her current price could look ridiculous after the race today (she'll be withdrawn if the ground doesn't suit). I have been following Sound Of Guns since her eye catching debut and it didn't take her long to get off the mark as she won a Maiden at the 2nd time of asking over 6f at Yarmouth in the style of a very good horse as everything that could have went against her did but her class saw her through to score in really impressive fashion. Despite being given a very lenient opening handicap mark of 82, connections didn't hesitate to step her up into Listed Company where she ran a blinder dropped back to 5f at Newbury last August when finding only the excellent Rosdhu Queen (unbeaten at sprinting trip and winner of the Group 1 Cheveley Park) too good as she went down battling by 3/4L. Despite looking to have every chance at the furlong pole, Sound Of Guns couldn't get by Willie Haggas's extremely game front running filly but she lost absolutely nothing in defeat that day. Sound Of Guns proved that effort was no fluke when running another superb race in defeat when finishing a 1.5L beaten 3rd in the Group 2 Flying Childers at Doncaster last September on what was her final start. Again over 5f, Sound Of Guns this time took on the boys and I think she was short of room at a crucial stage before running on strongly late on grab 3rd behind a couple of male counterparts. Again, that is really strong form with the winner Sir Prancealot had shown really good form in France when getting beaten less than 2L on two occasions behind Clive Cox's unbeaten Reckless Abandon (including at Group 1 level) whilst the runner up Bungle Inthejungle won a Group 3 on his only subsequent start. Moreover, the reopposing Morawij was a further length back in 6th and is now 7lb worse off at the weights so I can't see him reversing the form.

Trainer Ed Walker reported that Sound Of Guns had grown a lot over the winter and her reappearance upped to 7f in the Nell Gwyn when finishing much better than her finishing position in 7th suggests. Held up in mid division, Sound Of Guns was very keen throughout the race but she was still travelling very well inside the final 2f in behind the leaders. However, she got a big bump that nearly knocked her over but she was still able to improve her finishing position under a tender ride from Luke Morris. Where she would have finished that day I don't know but I'd like to think she could have challenged for a place in a race that has thrown up in the 1,000 Guineas winner and 4th in Sky Lantern and Winning Express. Today's contest sees her dropped back to 5f which shouldn't cause any problems and her trainer has done so given how keen she was over 7f. Looking at her rivals, the main threats look like improving handicappers looking to step up into Pattern Class and I think Sound Of Guns will have far too much class for them. There are some light showers forecast but Ed Walker has stated that she won't run if the ground is unsuitable so there are no fears from me that I'll get stuck with a bet with unsuitable ground. William Buick is an excellent booking and clearly gets on well with this filly having partnered her to her Maiden success and 3rd in the Flying Childers and I will be very, very disappointed if she doesn't win this. I won't be at all surprised if she routs this average enough looking field and I've had a substantial wager on her at a price I think grossly misrepresents her chance of winning this.

5.00 York

Hidden Justice 9/2

Despite being hit with a 10lb rise for his very easy success on his flat debut for John Quinn, I think Hidden Justice could still be quite a bit ahead of the handicapper off a mark of 83 and I think he'll take quite a bit of beating in this big field handicap. Formerly with Amanda Perrett, Hidden Justice was a consistent 3 year old making the frame in a lot of his 10 starts (winning once) but the switch to the excellent John Quinn yard has seen him flourish in both codes. Hidden Justice ran out a very comfortable winner on his first two starts over hurdles before disappointing in the Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival but less than a month later he successfully transferred back to the flat with a very, very comfortable win. Stepped up into a long distance handicap for the first time when taking in a 2m2f handicap at Pontefract last month, Hidden Justice made very smooth progress from the mid division of the field to hit the front on the bridle inside the final furlong before lengthening clear when asked to score by nearly 3L in bloodless fashion against opposition who had absolutely no answer for him. That 0-75 handicap is nowhere near as tough as the 0-90 handicap he takes in today but the manner of his latest success makes me believe he has an awful lot left to give in races of this nature on the flat. Again under Michael O'Connell, I think Hidden Justice's 10lb rise looks very fair and from an ideal draw in stall 2 which should allow him to get a position on the rail and I think he could take quite a bit of stopping off a mark of 83.

Keeping these last 3 short and sweet

4.15 Salisbury

Freddy With A Y 16/1

Freddy With A Y showed some very progressive form in 3 starts as a 2 year old and whose 3 year old debut on reappearance I am willing to overlook when held up on unsuitably soft ground. I think his mark of 75 looks very workable and George Baker comes here for this one ride.

5.55 Newmarket

Kalily 7/1

Kalily left behind two absolutely woeful efforts for Luca Cumani as a 3 year old on his stable debut for Rae Guest when an eye catching 4th on his seasonal reappearance last month. Based on that run alone, an opening mark of 68 looks quite workable but this 4 year old's breeding makes his mark look even more appealing. Kalily (2nd foal) is a half brother to Mundana who won 3 of her 4 starts and earned a rating of 92 when last seen in 2011. I also think its very interesting that new connections haven't sought to geld him and I think that looks quite a telling sign given his age. Liam Jones takes the ride and with Rae Guest clearly having his horses in super order with his last 2 runners winning and quite a bit of money around already for him I think he can make a successful handicap debut.

6.05 Ludlow

Bob's Legend 20/1

Bob's Legend is a horse who I am convinced has the ability to be much better than his current rating of 98 and if putting it all together I think he's got a great chance of going close in this. He was disappointing LTO when I strongly fancied him but trainer Martin Bosley reported he was holding his breath so you can put a line through that run. Although clearly a tricky customer, connections are reporting he's flying at home and he's already proven his liking for this track and although current odds on shot Church Field (landed a big punt on his handicap debut) could be tough to beat under a 7lb penalty if Bob's Legend shows his true colours then I definitely believe he can land this.

rossom

Nearly forgot this one!

8.05 Newmarket

Ice Pie 3/1 NB

I think Ice Pie is much, much better than her mark of 73 and I would be very disappointed if she doesn't win this. She made a very impressive winning debut (one of two debutants in the field - other well beaten) at Lingfield back in December as she made up an awful lot of ground in the final furlong to win going away by 1L and she very much struck me as a horse that was nowhere near the finished article. Moreover, she was comfortably the best horse in the race and the form has worked out very, very well. The 3rd home Gertrude Verse has gone on to win a Maiden very easily and has also finished 2nd to the Oaks bound Banofee in a Listed race at Chester. Furthemore, the 5th and 6th both next time out and for the debutant Ice Pie to beat those rivals with experience says an awful lot about the talent of the filly. Ice Pie made her handicap debut off this mark 12 days ago in a 0-85 handicap (0-75 today) and although beaten a neck in 3rd there is no doubt she was the best horse in the race. Slowly away and held up in touch, she still showed her inexperience as she was unbalanced going around the bends. Shoved along quite a bit off the pace with about 3f to go, she ran around green and once again made about 5L up in the final furlong and she just failed with her late surge. In addition to what she has shown on the track, she's very nicely bred being a half sister to 4 winners including the peak 107 rated St Moritz which again solidifies my belief she'll turn out to be much better than her 73 rating. She'll definitely improve for the step up to 10f in time but the straight mile at Newmarket should be fine for her today. In my opinion the handicapper is nuts to leave her mark unchanged and in this easier race and with that experience sure to help a lot I'd be very surprised if Ice Pie doesn't win this well as Richard Kingscote comes from York for this one ride at Newmarket for in form boss Tom Dascombe.

sting60

Fahys best 2yr old runs today 4.25 Parbold but is a terrible price and no value.In the last another horse that is a little too short in the betting is Dark Ranger 14/1 but is well treated on last years run and is off interest if he drifts.3.15 Two For Two 4/1 NAP.He seems very progressive and got no run last time from a poor draw but flew when he got daylight.

Arctic89

Can anyone tell me my Windhoek is 4/1 in the Dante? Looks to have the best form in the book and has beaten some others who are shorter in the betting than him.

Slattsy

Really like Blue Jack in the last at Newmarket.
His close second to Nocturn was boosted yesterday in a much better race. If BJ (sniggers) runs to that form he'll win this.

However only 2/1 now from 3s.

HigginsJ

Arctic89 wrote: »

Can anyone tell me my Windhoek is 4/1 in the Dante? Looks to have the best form in the book and has beaten some others who are shorter in the betting than him.

2 factors that I could see. O'Brien has been hoovering up the Derby trials and that race in which he beat Greatwood & Ghrurair he had the fitness edge & the form was let down by Havana Beats run in the Chester Vase

Slattsy

HigginsJ wrote: »

2 factors that I could see. O'Brien has been hoovering up the Derby trials and that race in which he beat Greatwood & Ghrurair he had the fitness edge & the form was let down by Havana Beats run in the Chester Vase

And the ground will be softer than anything he's raced on.

sting60

There seems to be three horses in the Dante with realistic chances.Indian Chief was very impressive at Leopardstown but what he beat is open to question.Greatwood is a decent sort who ran a cracker first time out when Cumani stated he needed the race badly.Trading Leather could be anything but I believe he was entered to give Bolger an Idea where he stands with Dawn Approach [Telescope withdrawn].

Johner

How did Windhoek have the fitness edge? It was nearly a year since his maiden win!

tryfix

I expect Godolphin's Secret Number to stay on for a place at a nice price in the Dante, not too impressed by the rest of the English horses, the form is all too closely connected for any of them to be top class.

Hulk Hands

sting60 wrote: »

There seems to be three horses in the Dante with realistic chances.Indian Chief was very impressive at Leopardstown but what he beat is open to question.Greatwood is a decent sort who ran a cracker first time out when Cumani stated he needed the race badly.Trading Leather could be anything but I believe he was entered to give Bolger an Idea where he stands with Dawn Approach [Telescope withdrawn].

How does Windhoek not have a realistic chance, given that he's beaten Greatwood and won his last race as easy as he pleased despite being ridiculously green in both of them? He's my idea of the winner, that 11/2 looks too big in comparison to Greatwood's price.

kiers47

tryfix wrote: »

I expect Godolphin's Secret Number to stay on for a place at a nice price in the Dante, not too impressed by the rest of the English horses, the form is all too closely connected for any of them to be top class.

He is probably the most interesting runner. He definitely would have been close possibly even won te UAE derby with a cleaer passage. If he had of won it I reckon he woul be more like 4/1. I simply couldn't back Indian chief at the price his odds are insane. The worry with secret number is the stable form and the fact he hasnt raced on the surface before but by ravens pass it shouldnt be a massive problem. Lines of Battle while dissapointing in kentucky ran a solid race. I think ill side with him for a small bet at 8/1 in the hope that he will be fit and ready. Sds is a massive plus as well doing the steering.

sting60

Hulk Hands wrote: »

How does Windhoek not have a realistic chance, given that he's beaten Greatwood and won his last race as easy as he pleased despite being ridiculously green in both of them? He's my idea of the winner, that 11/2 looks too big in comparison to Greatwood's price.

His last run was nothing to do with been green as he did the same in all races.My opinion is that he is a talented rogue who throws his head in the air when he gets a slap [Last horse in the race I would back].He had a soft lead last time out and showed no signs of been green then hung badly left.If the jockeys come up his left[they wont] he will kill half them in a pile up.After today he will be missing a pair of balls and then 3m chase at Kelso.

Johner

sting60 wrote: »

After today he will be missing a pair of balls and then 3m chase at Kelso.

Possibly the biggest load of ****e I've ever read.

sting60

Johner wrote: »

Possibly the biggest load of ****e I've ever read.

That comment is from someone who wants to stab people in the face with broken bottles.You know nothing about horse racing.

Johner

sting60 wrote: »

That comment is from someone who wants to stab people in the face with broken bottles.You know nothing about horse racing.

What would me wanting to stab people in the face with broken bottles have to do with my knowledge of horse racing? No need to get so upset about a comment on an off topic thread that wasn't meant to be taken literally. :rolleyes:

Anyway no need to drag the thread off topic if you have a problem with any of my comments report them.

ste2010

3 horses I'm backing today include only 1 at York as I'm flat inept!!

Cape tribulation in the last given his price. He's improved or found himself over jumps this year I'm hoping that energy can transfer over to the flat and at 9-1 the chance is taken.

NAP Nortfarbad 13/2 4.05 in Perth. An unexposed horse who has travelled on its own with a jeremy scott delegation approx 500miles to get to the course. That's 1000miles round trip...enough for me to put the money down

Giorgio quercus 8-1 6.40 in ludlow is finally down in class running in this 3m1 handicap. I've noticed a trend that hendersons underperforming or lesser thiught of horses are being specifically aimed at a particular handicap chase/hurdles at the end of each season. Eg Polly peachum, anquetta
My theory is this is the race that's been laid out for Giorgio Quercus and down in class I think he will finally get a win this season.

I'd write a more detailed selection but I'm in work and haven't got the time!!

Johner

Judge N Jury each way in the first for me. Good claimer in Thomas Brown on board.

byronbay2

No problem with the ground for Sound Of Guns, Rossom - it's definitely better than yesterday and is faster than Good in the straight. I've missed the 7/2 but agree with you that (even at 3/1) she is over-priced. Worth a decent bet imo, even in a 5F race with her tendency to dwell at the start!

jimjamcos

Cubanita in next for me.

BQQ

Jayo running in a hunter chase at fontwell.

Was contesting grade A h'cap chases here for willie mullins about 2 years ago.
If he retains any ability, he should go close at this level.

fangee

BQQ wrote: »

Jayo running in a hunter chase at fontwell.

Was contesting grade A h'cap chases here for willie mullins about 2 years ago.
If he retains any ability, he should go close at this level.

Non runner. I think.

BQQ

fangee wrote: »

Non runner. I think.

Yeah, NR.

Money back for me. Result! :pac:

Slattsy

Result of York anyone?

fangee

Slattsy wrote: »

Result of York anyone?

1st - Dalkala 2/1 fav

2nd - Ambivilent 8/1

3rd - Ladys first 8/1

Slattsy

Come on The Indian.

jimjamcos

Windhoek win, Trading Leather ew saver.

SRFC

How far does Dawn Approach win by :eek:

ShaneU

Ah **** off! Was on trading leather.

Gringo180

:eek::eek::eek::eek::eek:

jimjamcos

SRFC wrote: »

How far does Dawn Approach win by :eek:

That race is irrelevant to Derby. Poor trial IMO.

Suarez20

didn't get to see race, what happened?

Slattsy

Im just glad my original fancy Trading Leather was beaten ! Phew !

O'Briens horse again doing well in these trials, he's going to have a fair idea where he stands with them all come Derby day.

Gringo180

Suarez20 wrote: »

didn't get to see race, what happened?

Libetarian springs a massive shock an wins at 33/1.