JLT Lockinge Stakes 18-5-2013.

tryfix

DECLARATION OF WAR 2

CITYSCAPE 10/3

FARHH 7/2

TRUMPET MAJOR 7

FENCING 8

BEAUTY PARLOUR 8

ALJAMAAHEER 14

PENITENT 20

SOVEREIGN DEBT 20

AMARON 25

CHIL THE KITE 25

LIBRANNO 33

REPLY 40

A decent looking field for the Lockinge.

Can't see what Declaration Of War has done to be 2/1f in a Gp1 race, he has an awful lot to find on the book.

Cityscape has the best form in the book, but he has much the same chance as Farhh who looks looks capable of adding at least another 2nd place in a GP1 to his record. Trumpet Major surely isn't a GP1 horse and Fencing would have to improve 10lb on last year to win.

Last year's French 1,000 guineas winner Beauty Parlour now with Henry Cecil has very little to make up on the form book and might be worth a bet if the vibes are ok from Cecil's yard.

UrbanSea

Think it was a horrendous 1000 last year in France, Up is a nice mare but not near gr.1 level, even 97 rated After was forth. I'd probably fancy Farhh, Cityscape finds it difficult to land a domestic gr.1 but this is probably his best chance with no Excelebration or Frankel, DOW desperately short think he's more of a 10 furlong horse

Johner

Farhh looks the one for me aswell. Ran some blinders last year and was unlucky to bump into a few. This looks easier and the 7/2 looks nice.

tryfix

UrbanSea wrote: »

Think it was a horrendous 1000 last year in France, Up is a nice mare but not near gr.1 level, even 97 rated After was forth. I'd probably fancy Farhh, Cityscape finds it difficult to land a domestic gr.1 but this is probably his best chance with no Excelebration or Frankel, DOW desperately short think he's more of a 10 furlong horse

All true, but she stepped up on that form when 2nd in the Diane after that finishing 7l clear of Up in that race before flopping in the SunChariot at the end of the year.

I never really like taking on the colts with a filly, but it's hard to get too excited about the front three in the betting and I was looking for something at a bit of a price to mix it up with them.

kfallon

FYI.....Declaration of War was 7/2 yesterday!

tryfix

kfallon wrote: »

FYI.....Declaration of War was 7/2 yesterday!

Still 5/2 and 9/4 with some bookies. Best prices below.

http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/card.sd?race_id=574753&r_date=2013-05-18&raceTabs=oc_#raceTabs=oc_

If he wins this it would make him the best older miler in Europe, which would be some jump for a horse who has never even run above Gp3 company before.

SRFC

Declaration of war wont be winning this not good enough surprised he's favourite,beat tree's last time at leopardstown no chance of beating grp1 horses.

Slattsy

Farhh for me too.

Gringo180

SRFC wrote: »

Declaration of war wont be winning this not good enough surprised he's favourite,beat tree's last time at leopardstown no chance of beating grp1 horses.

Totally agree its a shocking price for Declaration of War if he was in a smaller yard he would be nowhere near favourite here. I honestly cant see past Farhh and I reckon there is further improvement left in this horse, that 7/2 looks massive. Libranno and Chill The Kite could run into a place at decent odds as it really is an awful Group 1 race.

UrbanSea

Think Libranno has no chance of placing don't think he has ever stayed a mile. Aljamaaheer at least looks progressive and always runs his race. Typically when I backed him he got beaten in a handicap off 88

Slattsy

Sweet baby Allah, how in the blue hell is Declaration of War at 7/4 shot

Farhh in my eyes should be around the 7/4 mark as on the best of his form he could well be a class above these. There doesnt seem to be any question marks over him. Trip & ground are perfect.
The only negative would the form of the Godolphin horses (not sure of % strike rate) but they'll surely have him fit enough for this.

Farhh is 4/1 at the moment, (was he5s somewhere?) and hopefully he goes bigger as it those odds he's worth a decent stake.

UnitedIrishman

Slattsy wrote: »

Farhh in my eyes should be around the 7/4 mark as on the best of his form he could well be a class above these. There doesnt seem to be any question marks over him. Trip & ground are perfect.
The only negative would the form of the Godolphin horses (not sure of % strike rate) but they'll surely have him fit enough for this.

Bin Suroor's record since the start of 2013 is - 93 Runners - 22 Wins - 35 Places. Which isn't bad. Until you look at the fact only 14 of them were in Britain (rest in Dubai) and only 2 placed.

That's according to ATR which could be wrong now.

jimjamcos

Just opened an account with Victor Chandler (best price about Farhh @ 9/2, 1/4 odds 3 places) as just can't see Farhh out of frame. The perfect ew bet to nothing IMO. Also threw my 25e free bet on him too.

The horse is way overpriced! Has to go close on all known form..

Slattsy

jimjamcos wrote: »

Just opened an account with Victor Chandler (best price about Farhh @ 9/2, 1/4 odds 3 places) as just can't see Farhh out of frame. The perfect ew bet to nothing IMO. Also threw my 25e free bet on him too.
QUOTE]

What are the stipulations of that 25e bet ?

jimjamcos

Slattsy wrote: »

jimjamcos wrote: »

Just opened an account with Victor Chandler (best price about Farhh @ 9/2, 1/4 odds 3 places) as just can't see Farhh out of frame. The perfect ew bet to nothing IMO. Also threw my 25e free bet on him too.
QUOTE]

What are the stipulations of that 25e bet ?

Just register an account with them & they’ll match your first stake up to £25. So put 25e of your own doh on any bet and get a free 25e bet. Obviously, you lose the free bet stake if you win. I put the free 25e on on the nose so will be getting back 112.50 if he wins.

Gringo180

Is Fallon on Farhh tomorrow?

jimjamcos

Gringo180 wrote: »

Is Fallon on Farhh tomorrow?

S De Sousa

jimjamcos

S bin Suroor just had a nice 8/1 winner there at Newmarket. A positive for Farhh tomorrow that he's hitting some form in England.

Gringo180

Looking through the form of the race again I am absolutely baffled at how big a price Farhh is, has he lost a leg or something :eek:

Johner

Baffled by the prices as well!

Gringo180

Few quotes coming out of the stable on Farhh.

Saeed bin Suroor commented: "Farhh had a small chip removed from his ankle after he ran in France and we gave him time to recover.

"He has been working nicely and seems happy and fresh, although he will improve for the run.

"I am hoping that there is some rain before Saturday because he prefers cut in the ground but I think that he will be fine on good going."

Seems he wont be 100% tomorrow so that is a bit of a concern considering most of his opponents have a run under there belt. But I don't even think he needs to be at his best to win this.

jimjamcos

Gringo180 wrote: »

Looking through the form of the race again I am absolutely baffled at how big a price Farhh is, has he lost a leg or something :eek:

Maybe they think he has been pumped up in all his runs so far? :P

A horse that was 4th behind Famous Name V a horse that was 2nd behind Frankel. No comparison in form!

If Declaration of War wins, it'll be one serious training achievement by O'Brien!

jimjamcos

Gringo180 wrote: »

Few quotes coming out of the stable on Farhh.

Saeed bin Suroor commented: "Farhh had a small chip removed from his ankle after he ran in France and we gave him time to recover.

"He has been working nicely and seems happy and fresh, although he will improve for the run.

"I am hoping that there is some rain before Saturday because he prefers cut in the ground but I think that he will be fine on good going."

Seems he wont be 100% tomorrow so that is a bit of a concern considering most of his opponents have a run under there belt. But I don't even think he needs to be at his best to win this.

He's unbeaten in FTO appearances though. I think Cityscape, with runs under his belt this season, is a far bigger danger than DOW tbh.

Gringo180

jimjamcos wrote: »

Maybe they think he has been pumped up in all his runs so far? :P

A horse that was 4th behind Famous Name V a horse that was 2nd behind Frankel. No comparison in form!

If Declaration of War wins, it'll be one serious training achievement by O'Brien!

I honestly cannot see how DOW can win on all known form, he's priced up on the basis that he has another stone improvement in him :eek:

Gringo180

jimjamcos wrote: »

He's unbeaten in FTO appearances though. I think Cityscape, with runs under his belt this season, is a far bigger danger than DOW tbh.

Correct but you can say that he hasn't really run in a race of this quality FTO. I reckon if anybody fancies Farhh tomorrow to get on now because I cant see it being 9/2 in the morning.

jimjamcos

Gringo180 wrote: »

Correct but you can say that he hasn't really run in a race of this quality FTO. I reckon if anybody fancies Farhh tomorrow to get on now because I cant see it being 9/2 in the morning.

Yea, but the fact that the trainer thinks the horse is "unsound" may in a way mean that he always needs to be close to 100% fit going into his races... if you get my fecked up logic. I've him backed anyway!

Gringo180

jimjamcos wrote: »

Yea, but the fact that the trainer thinks the horse is "unsound" may in a way mean that he always needs to be close to 100% fit going into his races... if you get my fecked up logic. I've him backed anyway!

I do indeed mate, I am on him now myself got him @9/2 he's now 4/1.

Johner

Farhh should be Declaration of Wars price and vice versa.

jimjamcos

The horse who finished 2nd to DOW 3 runs back, Ebazan, was a 6/1 3rd there in a Kilbeggan maiden hurdle. He was 10th in a maiden hurdle @ 4/1 last Sunday too.


The form of those behind DOW is absolutely atrocious for him to be the price he is.

Gringo180

jimjamcos wrote: »

The horse who finished 2nd to DOW 3 runs back, Ebazan, was a 6/1 3rd there in a Kilbeggan maiden hurdle. He was 10th in a maiden hurdle @ 4/1 last Sunday too.


The form of those behind DOW is absolutely atrocious for him to be the price he is.

And the horse he beat last time out finished 4th out of 5 runners last weekend, beaten 3 lenghts by Duntle who was having his first run in 246 days :pac:

Are the bookies trying to fool the punters into backing this horse?

jimjamcos

Gringo180 wrote: »

And the horse he beat last time out finished 4th out of 5 runners last weekend, beaten 3 lenghts by Duntle who was having his first run in 246 days :pac:

Are the bookies trying to fool the punters into backing this horse?

Literally the only positive thing I can say about him is that there's been plenty of early money for him so he's clearly fancied by someone close to Ballydoyle. As I've said though, it'll be a massive feat by O'Brien if he finds the improvement needed to win tomorrow.

He's always been a talking horse but he'll have to have grown wings to win tomorrow IMO!

Johner

I just put a million euro on Farhh. Come on the Farhh.

madmoose

Ive backed Farhh at 5/1 aswell, all aboard the farhh train!!!

tryfix

Bit of head wrecker this one. Cityscape is simply the best horse in the race, but no 7 year old has ever won this race. Farhh is nailed on for 2nd again. The money has come for my original choice of Beauty Parlour now into 11/2, value now gone I'll side with Cityscape because it'll take a horse of Excelebration's caliber to beat him, and it's a terrible price that DOW is that good a horse.

Gringo180

tryfix wrote: »

Bit of head wrecker this one. Cityscape is simply the best horse in the race, but no 7 year old has ever won this race. Farhh is nailed on for 2nd again. The money has come for my original choice of Beauty Parlour now into 11/2, value now gone I'll side with Cityscape because it'll take a horse of Excelebration's caliber to beat him, and it's a terrible price that DOW is that good a horse.

Plenty more scope about Farhh tho to be honest, he was only making his 3rd start at 4 last year and there were excuses for his defeat in France, although a mile may be a bit on the sharp side for him you can be sure that it will be a fast run race with Reply in as pacemaker. Really really confident about him tomorrow.

tryfix

Gringo180 wrote: »

Plenty more scope about Farhh tho to be honest, he was only making his 3rd start at 4 last year and there were excuses for his defeat in France, although a mile may be a bit on the sharp side for him you can be sure that it will be a fast run race with Reply in as pacemaker. Really really confident about him tomorrow.

Farhh has age on his side, but I don't see Farhh as a really top drawer miler, or as the type of horse who I'd want to back in a battle. Good luck anyway!

kfallon

Beauty Parlour is the Pricewise horse btw

jimjamcos

tryfix wrote: »

Bit of head wrecker this one. Cityscape is simply the best horse in the race, but no 7 year old has ever won this race. Farhh is nailed on for 2nd again. The money has come for my original choice of Beauty Parlour now into 11/2, value now gone I'll side with Cityscape because it'll take a horse of Excelebration's caliber to beat him, and it's a terrible price that DOW is that good a horse.

While I do think it's between Cityscape and Farhh, I don't think you can say that Cityscape is definitely the best horse in the race. Cityscape was comfortably beaten both times he met Excelebration and the one time he met Farhh, in last years Eclipse, he was over 7l behind him, albeit over a 1m2 trip.

I don't think it'll take a performance of Excelebration's standards to beat him tomorrow.

tryfix

jimjamcos wrote: »

While I do think it's between Cityscape and Farhh, I don't think you can say that Cityscape is definitely the best horse in the race. Cityscape was comfortably beaten both times he met Excelebration and the one time he met Farhh, in last years Eclipse, he was over 7l behind him, albeit over a 1m2 trip.

I don't think it'll take a performance of Excelebration's standards to beat him tomorrow.

It should, he beat all bar Excelebration in his last two runs over a mile in Europe, with a third to Wise Dan over a mile sandwiched in between.

He's a miler, pure and simple, whereas, Farhh is definitely top class at 10f and has a bit to find on Cityscape over a mile through his form with Moonlight Cloud.

UrbanSea

Farrh strikes me as a consistent bridesmaid horse, not a trait I like

jimjamcos

tryfix wrote: »

It should, he beat all bar Excelebration in his last two runs over a mile in Europe, with a third to Wise Dan over a mile sandwiched in between.

He's a miler, pure and simple, whereas, Farhh is definitely top class at 10f and has a bit to find on Cityscape through his form with Midnight Cloud.

He's never met or beaten Farhh over a mile though. Cityscape beat Elusive Kate and a below real top-class Carlton House at Ascot and beat Elusive Kate and Moonlight Cloud by just a neck and a head in that French race. He was in the best position throughout that race, up with pace the whole way around. Moonlight Cloud came from way back to finish like a train and may have beaten Cityscape to 2nd with a better timed run. There was then the minimum distance between Moonlight Cloud and Farhh over a mile NTO so don't think Farhh has much to find on Cityscape at all.

It basically comes down to whether you want to back a horse 2/3 lengths behind Excelebration or a horse 7/8 lengths behind Frankel. I will always choose the latter, especially considering their respective prices and the line of form through Midnight Cloud.

jimjamcos

UrbanSea wrote: »

Farrh strikes me as a consistent bridesmaid horse, not a trait I like

The same could be said about Cityscape too. In fairness to both, being beaten by horses like Excelebration (in Cityscape's case), So You Think, Moonlight Cloud and Frankel aint too shabby.

I really hope either Cityscape or Farhh get the home Grp 1 win their top class consistency deserves.

tryfix

jimjamcos wrote: »

He's never met or beaten Farhh over a mile though. Cityscape beat Elusive Kate and a below top-class Carlton House at Ascot and beat Elusive Kate and Moonlight Cloud by a neck and a head in that French race. He was in the best position throughout that race, up with pace the whole way around. Moonlight Cloud came from way back to finish like a train and may have beaten Cityscape to 2nd with a better timed run. There was then the minimum distance between Moonlight Cloud and Farhh over a mile NTO so don't think Farhh has much to find on Cityscape at all.

It basically comes down to whether you want to back a horse 2/3 lengths behind Excelebration or a horse 7/8 lengths behind Frankel. I will always choose the latter, especially considering their respective prices and the line of form through Midnight Cloud.

I'll see your Frankel and raise you a Wise Dan.

Wise Dan beat Excelebration 2l and Moonlight Cloud 6 1/4l.

Wise Dan beat Cityscape ( gave 3lb ) 4 1/4l. = 2 3/4l weight adjusted.

UrbanSea

jimjamcos wrote: »

The same could be said about Cityscape too. In fairness to both, being beaten by horses like Excelebration (in Cityscape's case), So You Think, Moonlight Cloud and Frankel aint too shabby.

I really hope either Cityscape or Farhh get the home Grp 1 win their top class consistency deserves.

Wouldn't say the same about Cityscape, horse has won 7 times in his career, thought Farrh should have won in France

tryfix wrote: »

I'll see your Frankel and raise you a Wise Dan.

Wise Dan beat Excelebration 2l and Moonlight Cloud 6 1/4l.

Wise Dan beat Cityscape ( gave 3lb ) 4 1/4l. = 2 3/4l weight adjusted.

I'd be surprised if we saw the best of Excelebration out in America

Johner

UrbanSea wrote: »

Wouldn't say the same about Cityscape, horse has won 7 times in his career, thought Farrh should have won in France

How many more races has Cityscape ran though? And Farhh is very lightly raced. He will win tomorrow.

tryfix

UrbanSea wrote: »

I'd be surprised if we saw the best of Excelebration out in America

I think we did, he beat Moonlight Cloud by an improved 4 1/4l compared to when he beat her 1 3/4l in Deauville, which would have confirmed the improvement he had shown on his previous form when winning at Ascot in the QE II.

He just ran into better horses than himself in Wise Dan and Animal Kingdom.

jimjamcos

tryfix wrote: »

I'll see your Frankel and raise you a Wise Dan.

Wise Dan beat Excelebration 2l and Moonlight Cloud 6 1/4l.

Wise Dan beat Cityscape ( gave 3lb ) 4 1/4l. = 2 3/4l weight adjusted.

Wise Dan looks exceptional alright but wouldn't have him quite at Frankel's level myself. I'm always wary of looking at form beyond France anyway. Some horses travel better and improve for different ground/surfaces/conditions abroad and some don't. I too doubt that Excelebration showed his best at Breeders Cup whereas Cityscape is a highly-consistent globetrotter.

I'm no expert on foreign racing but there regularly seems to be a lack of real depth beyond the first few in betting, making races such as the ones Cityscape has contested perfect for English raiders to pick up some nice place money and the odd win.

UrbanSea

tryfix wrote: »

I think we did, he beat Moonlight Cloud by an improved 4 1/4l compared to when he beat her 1 3/4l in Deauville, which would have confirmed the improvement he had shown on his previous form when winning at Ascot in the QE II.

He just ran into better horses than himself in Wise Dan and Animal Kingdom.

If he gave his true running (to a mark of 132) that would put Wise Dan and Animal Kingdom nearer Frankel's 140 than I'd like to think they are, at least levelling Sea the Stars' 137

tryfix

jimjamcos wrote: »

Wise Dan looks exceptional alright but wouldn't have him quite at Frankel's level myself. I'm always wary of looking at form beyond France anyway. Some horses travel better and improve for different ground/surfaces/conditions abroad and some don't. I too doubt that Excelebration showed his best at Breeders Cup whereas Cityscape is a highly-consistent globetrotter.

There's not much in it on the book and we'll see tomorrow, O'Brien will probably have the measure of both of them again.

I was just looking through the form of Wise Dan, and it struck me that the Kentucky Derby and Dubai World Cup winner Animal Kingdom looks to be better than the European horses over a mile, yet they're talking about running him over 10f at Ascot when the Queen Anne over 1m would be a penalty kick for him.

tryfix

UrbanSea wrote: »

If he gave his true running (to a mark of 132) that would put Wise Dan and Animal Kingdom nearer Frankel's 140 than I'd like to think they are, at least levelling Sea the Stars' 137

Now Urban, you know Frankel wasn't a 140 horse. 135..:D

I'm not really sure about the American form, they're both mid 120 horses, a few pounds either way would be huge..

UrbanSea

tryfix wrote: »

Now Urban, you know Frankel wasn't a 140 horse. 135..:D

I'm not really sure about the American form, they're both mid 120 horses, a few pounds either way would be huge..

Weren't the handicap ratings adjusted a few months ago that made Frankel the best ever