1000 Guinneas

Slattsy

I backed Aidan O'Briens Moth at 10s after she really impressed me with the way she won on her reappearance a few weeks back. It was only a maiden i know, but it was visually impressive. Moth was beaten twice at very short odds in her juvenile campaigh so was evidently well though of.
At the time she wasnt even entered for the 1000 which is unusual for a Coolmore horse, but to my delight she was supplemented today
I really fancy her.

I think Charlie Hills horse Just the Judge (5/1) is the one to beat.
Im sure the fav Hot Snap (11/4) will be many peoplesfancy after winning well recently, but i think she' too short and JTJ has some good form in the book.


(I also backed Moth for the Oaks)

Gringo180

Slattsy wrote: »

I backed Aidan O'Briens Moth at 10s after she really impressed me with the way she won on her reappearance a few weeks back. It was only a maiden i know, but it was visually impressive. Moth was beaten twice at very short odds in her juvenile campaigh so was evidently well though of.
At the time she wasnt even entered for the 1000 which is unusual for a Coolmore horse, but to my delight she was supplemented today
I really fancy her.

I think Charlie Hills horse Just the Judge (5/1) is the one to beat.
Im sure the fav Hot Snap (11/4) will be many peoplesfancy after winning well recently, but i think she' too short and JTJ has some good form in the book.


(I also backed Moth for the Oaks)

I think Snow Queen could run a good race, although I am not sure how she will handle the good ground but I think the risk is factored into her price which is currently 20/1.

jimjamcos

I'll probably take a chance on Sky Lantern and Big Break. Hughes thinks Hot Snap getting first run on Sky Lantern played a big part in her loss LTO. That may be wishful thinking on his part but at the respective prices, I'll take a chance on Hannon's.

Big Break looked very good last season. Only worry would be whether she'll definitely run with Weld saying a few weeks back that she's a bit behind from the rough Irish winter. Will she definitely run being under the same ownership as the fav?

kfallon

I will go out on a limb and say this will be one of the worst 3yo crop of fillies ever this season in UK and Ireland!

Just my gut feeling......feel free to save this comment until November when they've won 125 G1's between them :pac:

I'll back Moth even tho she's no value for a maiden winner, Maureen is probably the safest bet but this could easily be a boilover like last year!

UrbanSea

Moth was the one I liked but 8 is tight enough. Horse she beat well last week won by 7 lengths at Gowran the other day.

SRFC

French Filly What A Dream wins this.

andyman

Slattsy wrote: »

I backed Aidan O'Briens Moth

I'd back his moth too

UrbanSea

kfallon wrote: »

I will go out on a limb and say this will be one of the worst 3yo crop of fillies ever this season in UK and Ireland!

Just my gut feeling......feel free to save this comment until November when they've won 125 G1's between them :pac:

I'll back Moth even tho she's no value for a maiden winner, Maureen is probably the safest bet but this could easily be a boilover like last year!

There are plenty of years when the fillies fail to leave much of an impression. Think last year's Oaks was rancid apart from the Fugue but she is more of a 10 furlong horse. The year Special Duty won it had a really poor crowd of fillies says it all when she had to win it in the stewards from that moody cow, she won the French won then but was a shocking race

kfallon

UrbanSea wrote: »

There are plenty of years when the fillies fail to leave much of an impression. Think last year's Oaks was rancid apart from the Fugue but she is more of a 10 furlong horse. The year Special Duty won it had a really poor crowd of fillies says it all when she had to win it in the stewards from that moody cow, she won the French won then but was a shocking race

She got that in The Stewards room too, didn't she???

Special Duty always reminds me of Mike Twattermole's major blunder on Ch4 after the race when talking to the owner of Jacqueline Quest:

"And is your wife with you today?"
"No, she's dead!"

:eek:

Imhof Tank

Cannot see Hot Snap beaten and have emptied my account on her.

luckyeye

jimjamcos wrote: »

I'll probably take a chance on Sky Lantern and Big Break. Hughes thinks Hot Snap getting first run on Sky Lantern played a big part in her loss LTO. That may be wishful thinking on his part but at the respective prices, I'll take a chance on Hannon's.

Big Break looked very good last season. Only worry would be whether she'll definitely run with Weld saying a few weeks back that she's a bit behind from the rough Irish winter. Will she definitely run being under the same ownership as the fav?

With you on this JimJam - had a look at that race again last night and Hot Snap got a run on Sky Lantern before Hughes had time to react..just didn't see her coming up his inner...

He was hands and heels for the last furlong as he knew the filly in front was gone...

She was giving Hot Snap 3 lbs as well and taking the respective prices into account (12/1 with Ladbrokes) I'll side with the percentage call and hope she can reverse...

UrbanSea

Still not convinced about Sky Lantern. Big break to go for the French or Irish. The french Guineas are worth crazy money this year after a threat of having it down graded. Think I read the 2000 is worth 700k


Edit: 550,000, still 250k more than the Irish

Slattsy

I actually got Moth at 12s.
Only 6 now. If I was on betfair I'd be laying some of that off. I really should get with the times.

I hate change.

rossom

Was on Hot Snap the last day and although she looks a very talented filly she's much too short for me. The French filly arguably comes into this with the strongest form on offer and I think if she was British/Irish trained she'd be a couple of points shorter. As it stands she'd be who I'd be siding with each way.

Johner

Slattsy wrote: »

I actually got Moth at 12s.
Only 6 now. If I was on betfair I'd be laying some of that off. I really should get with the times.

I hate change.

Here Slatts give me a go of your Moth.

Slattsy

Johner wrote: »

Here Slatts give me a go of your Moth.

I hope you're dying when ya wake up ha ha.

Johner

Slattsy wrote: »

I hope you're dying when ya wake up ha ha.

Brand new Slatts, letting out some foals. I think I'm still drunk though, better than a hangover.

Slattsy

I know that feeling well, you need to keep drinking though so the hangover doesnt get ya!

Johner

Slattsy wrote: »

I know that feeling well, you need to keep drinking though so the hangover doesnt get ya!

I know Slatts it's the only cure! But I've to go to Wexford during the day with a mare to get covered so no more drink until tonight. I'm going to back Moth, hon the Moth!!

Slattsy

Moth, if she wins will be my first winner in about 3 weeks, so you might want to change your mind.
Fair warning people !

Johner

Moth Moth Moth.

3ndahalfof6

WINNING EXPRESS and OLLIE OLGA, EW for me, there is always 2 that go under the radar.

Howjoe1

I hope Joseph gives me Moth a good ride tomorrow.

jimjamcos

Howjoe1 wrote: »

I hope Joseph gives me Moth a good ride tomorrow.

He'll come late from behind in a stiff finish!

UrbanSea

Think the French filly is under priced, still not convinced that Olympic's Glory win Arc day was strong form, don't think Dawn Approach was anywhere near as good in the Coventry for him to get so close

jimjamcos

UrbanSea wrote: »

Think the French filly is under priced, still not convinced that Olympic's Glory win Arc day was strong form, don't think Dawn Approach was anywhere near as good in the Coventry for him to get so close

Clearly not. 8 lengths ahead of Cristoforo Colombo today and only a length ahead of him in Coventry.

UrbanSea

Think this is a really open race. Think Agent Alison shaped well behind Maureen and was never quite going the pace to challenge. The extra furlong today should help, I don't really fancy Maureen much as I like her, thought she had too much speed to get this mile even though she should on breeding

longshotvalue

I’m going to go with Dermot Welds Rasmeyaa in this. She won one of the years better maidens last year with loads in hand in front of a bucket load of future winners, and the trainer will not normally send one here unless he feels she is going to be competitive. This race has the look of being a bit substandard, although in fairness it’s hard to tell yet. I just liked the look of that run and in my view it was probably about as impressive as anything else in this field. The 14 on Betfair looks a bit of value.

1 Point win 14.0 Betfair

tryfix

I think Hot Snap will win and will go on and win the Oaks as well

clubberlang12

1000 Guineas looks a tough betting proposition today. Hot Snap form and visual impression from lto entitles her to be favourite but i wouldn't be a confident backer at that price in this field. Would need 4 or 5's to be a backer. The french filly has ggod form at home and her run behind Olympic Glory is impressive, but despite her American pedigree i would be concerned by the fast ground. Just The Judge is still unbeaten and would be a player if she can bring her form to the next level. Moth was very impressive to the eye on her maiden win lto but very hard to see what she has beaten in that so far. So i've gone for 2 value e/w picks in the form of Winning Express and Ollie Olga. WE looked to be making her move when squeezed lto and with a clearer run i believe she would have finished a couple of lengths closer to HS. She was also somewhat unlucky when runner up behind Roshdu Queen in the Cheverly Park when having to switch her run. I think she will enjoy the faster ground looking at her leg action and if at one of the "bigger stables" she would be shorter. McMahon also in good form of late. With 25/1 available i'll have a play. OO also looks value to me with 50's available. Disappointed on her final run of last season behind Certify but she has a line through Sky Lantern and i feel a return to quicker ground given her pedigree will suit. Channon can also get one ready for a big run.

mailburner

backed hot snap but more hopeful than confident
a few euro on the oaks guin double at 12s also

UrbanSea

Did not fancy Sky Lantern, very good race. Just the Judge ran a huge race, the owners really really wanted a Guineas winner

carpothepunk

Peach of a ride

Colonel Sanders

Moth broke badly & looked all at sea in the dip. Could be a massive Oaks trial

klairondavis

Great ride from Hughesie

Slattsy

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Moth broke badly & looked all at sea in the dip. Could be a massive Oaks trial

My thoughts exactly.
Actually thought Joey gave her a poor ride at first but then it does look as if the dip caught her out.

Gringo180

Snow Queen ran a cracker as well, couldn't go with them but absolutely flew home in the final furlong. Step up in trip I reckon for her.

Colonel Sanders

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Moth broke badly & looked all at sea in the dip. Could be a massive Oaks trial

Oaks jolly on Betfair now

Slattsy

I'm on at 14s.

UrbanSea

Snow Queen now 10 on Betfair for the Oaks. Would rather her than Moth, but not sure about pedigree

Slattsy

Nah.
Plenty more improvement in Moth. That was only her 4th run. Didn't handle the dip. Credit her for getting so close.

As I said the Guineas are always the best Derby and Oaks trials.

UrbanSea

Great insight ''nah''. Considering Snow Queen came from dead last.

Gringo180

UrbanSea wrote: »

Snow Queen now 10 on Betfair for the Oaks. Would rather her than Moth, but not sure about pedigree

Looking at the replay again if Ryan had of had her in a nice position she would of won, she was stone last 2 out very impressed with her turn of foot ill be all over her for The Oaks if she runs.

Slattsy

I'm happy enough with that.

jimjamcos

jimjamcos wrote: »

I'll probably take a chance on Sky Lantern and Big Break. Hughes thinks Hot Snap getting first run on Sky Lantern played a big part in her loss LTO. That may be wishful thinking on his part but at the respective prices, I'll take a chance on Hannon's.

Big Break looked very good last season. Only worry would be whether she'll definitely run with Weld saying a few weeks back that she's a bit behind from the rough Irish winter. Will she definitely run being under the same ownership as the fav?

Colonel Sanders

UrbanSea wrote: »

Snow Queen now 10 on Betfair for the Oaks. Would rather her than Moth, but not sure about pedigree

25/1 with Powers which is surprising

I'm not even gonna bother seeing how much they'll let me have on as it'll just insult my intelligence

TheGoldenAges

Disappointed with What A Name, never got into the race at all

Morgans

Gringo180 wrote: »

Looking at the replay again if Ryan had of had her in a nice position she would of won, she was stone last 2 out very impressed with her turn of foot ill be all over her for The Oaks if she runs.

Unlucky, had her each way as well. It wasnt Ryan. It was the pace on the ground. Had it been any softer I think she would have won. Not sure she is a bet for the oaks, but Irish guineas would be very interesting.

Gringo180

Morgans wrote: »

Unlucky, had her each way as well. It wasnt Ryan. It was the pace on the ground. Had it been any softer I think she would have won. Not sure she is a bet for the oaks, but Irish guineas would be very interesting.

That's true enough I think today was the first time she has raced on fast ground.

tryfix

The seemed to go flat out on the firm ground and that looks like it took a toll on the Pivotal filly Hot Springs and it also let the ones out the back come home like rockets as the ones in front tied up. Moth is definitely promising and Just The Judge has a solid chance in the Oaks on this, but I doubt Snow Queen will stay the Oaks trip. Looking forward to the Oaks trials to see what other horses emerge for the Oaks.

The 1,000 guineas field were a smashing looking bunch of fillies.

SRFC

How far would certify of winning by :pac: