Iceland return centre right party that precided over collapse

hyperborean

So the good folk of Iceland have forgiven the party that was in government from 1980 to 2009, and it looks like they will lead it for the next few years.

http://www.dw.de/iceland-center-right-takes-commanding-lead-in-elections/a-16776893


The FF boys must be wet and sticky looking at this turn around, and with the new anti austerity approach, they might be right (right of centre that is)

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/martin-signals-shift-in-fianna-f%C3%A1il-position-on-austerity-1.1375454

I think they are in with a chance to be at least majority in the next rainbow government. FG should be very careful about the mud they are slinging at Labour so as not to end the term of this government too early....

Pete_Cavan

hyperborean wrote: »

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/martin-signals-shift-in-fianna-f%C3%A1il-position-on-austerity-1.1375454

Martin obviously learned a lot during all those years with Bertie.

raymon

The Icelanders didn't participate in any economic treason by bailing out their golfing buddies at the expense of the taxpayer.

Neither did they hand over their soverignty to foreign powers.

I have hope that the Irish will see through the lies and spin.


However it is a wakeup call. A populist party can promise reduced taxes and increased expenditure to cynically increase their vote. I have no doubt FF will go this route.

we have been warned. Thanks Iceland

pablomakaveli

I was reading about this yesterday and seemingly the reason for this was due to a lot of small new parties popping up and dividing the vote allowing traditional parties with a core vote to come out well.

It raises an interesting question to whether more parties can be more damaging then good when something like this happens.

bmaxi

There is more difference between Iceland and Ireland than one letter. Icelanders had the balls to take to the streets to force out their corrupt government, they demanded and were given, a new constitution to prevent the same situation ever happening again, they jailed the corrupt bankers and politicians.
What did we do? We sat on our arses for three years, moaning about our dilemma, then when the opportunity came around, we elected the same government with a different name and the same attitude towards corruption.
I don't think the new Icelandic government will repeat the mistakes of the past, remembering they were lucky to escape physical harm the last time. I don't hold out the same hopes for FF.

Phoebas

bmaxi wrote: »

Icelanders had the balls to take to the streets to force out their corrupt government .....

... and then take to the polling booths to put them right back in again.

karlth

Iceland has always been more right leaning than the rest of the nordic countries. The two largest parties, that will probably take over, have purged out most of their pre crash politicians.

Their main campaign promise is to use private bank assets to reduce mortgage debts, by around 20%. "The banks caused the crash and will have to pay"

hatrickpatrick

F*ck.
The genuine possibility that FF could some day return to power scares the absolute sh!te out of me. In my view, anyone with any shred of pride in their country should join forces to try and make sure this absolutely does not happen.

Anynama141

karlth wrote: »

Iceland has always been more right leaning than the rest of the nordic countries. The two largest parties, that will probably take over, have purged out most of their pre crash politicians.

Their main campaign promise is to use private bank assets to reduce mortgage debts, by around 20%. "The banks caused the crash and will have to pay"

Who owns the banks in Iceland?

Presumably they are just setting themselves up for galloping inflation or something similar.

chunkylover4

The Major Banks which were not nationalized went into receivership.

Also bear in Mind that Iceland did have an IMF bailout and went through severe austerity coupled with the fact that wages their have dropped over fifty percent since 2008. They also joined the EU in 2009 which gave them far more credibility to borrow money in financial markets.

There was also only 5 real convictions as a fallout from the financial crisis, all related to fraud or insider trading which the DPP would without a doubt prosecute for here if it happened or rather if it could be proved.

I

Manach

As for never again voting for FF as some of the other posters have mentioned, the question then becomes what other credible & vaguely centralish opposition party is the alternative to the FG/Lab government?

StewartGriffin

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

F*ck.
The genuine possibility that FF could some day return to power scares the absolute sh!te out of me. In my view, anyone with any shred of pride in their country should join forces to try and make sure this absolutely does not happen.

Alternatives?

Next election people will destroy Labour and want FG to be punished for their lies (unless they stand up to the unions now which may give them a bit of leverage, but they won't 'cos they're too cowardly)

So consider the ballot:

FG
FF
Labour
SF
IND

???????!!

karlth

chunkylover4 wrote: »

The Major Banks which were not nationalized went into receivership.

Also bear in Mind that Iceland did have an IMF bailout and went through severe austerity coupled with the fact that wages their have dropped over fifty percent since 2008. They also joined the EU in 2009 which gave them far more credibility to borrow money in financial markets.

There was also only 5 real convictions as a fallout from the financial crisis, all related to fraud or insider trading ...

Are you confusing Iceland with another country? Your post is so full of errors I don't know where to start correcting it!

karlth

Anynama141 wrote: »

Who owns the banks in Iceland?

They are in receivership but their assets have not yet been paid out to the owners of the banks' debt.

Anynama141

StewartGriffin wrote: »

Alternatives?

Next election people will destroy Labour and want FG to be punished for their lies (unless they stand up to the unions now which may give them a bit of leverage, but they won't 'cos they're too cowardly)

So consider the ballot:

FG
FF
Labour
SF
IND

???????!!

It's funny - if FG and Labour had enacted their opposite approaches (spending cuts vs tax rises) to solving the Fianna Failure disaster, more than half the country would be in uproar. And when they compromise (some spending cuts, some tax rises) more than half the country is in uproar.

The real problem is the rather stupid electorate who think you can instantly get rd of a €15,000,000,000 current deficit and €60,000,000,000 (or whatever) Fianna Failure bank debt by marking a card in a small wooden box with no actual pain for anyone.

onedmc

chunkylover4 wrote: »

They also joined the EU in 2009 which gave them far more credibility to borrow money in financial markets.


I

This is news to me, Iceland is not part of the eu. They applied to start the process and probably told the eu that they would hand over some fish if the eu helped out.

Iceland will only join the eu when the fish run out, coud be soon ...

onedmc

raymon wrote: »

The Icelanders didn't participate in any economic treason by bailing out their golfing buddies at the expense of the taxpayer.

Neither did they hand over their soverignty to foreign powers.

I have hope that the Irish will see through the lies and spin.


However it is a wakeup call. A populist party can promise reduced taxes and increased expenditure to cynically increase their vote. I have no doubt FF will go this route.

we have been warned. Thanks Iceland

Iceland did enter an IMF bailout and did back the banks with government capital. The difference is that Iceland prints its own money

I said it before and I'll say it again FF will be back, FG/Lab will be the next government and it will back to FF after that.

The voters will all be fooled by the "we're back on track" tax cuts coming down the line and the young people just won't vote.

karlth

onedmc wrote: »

This is news to me, Iceland is not part of the eu. They applied to start the process and probably told the eu that they would hand over some fish if the eu helped out.

Iceland will only join the eu when the fish run out, coud be soon ...

"Cod be soon"

Iceland has already put negotiations with the EU on hold and the new government is about to cancel them. Around 70% of the population do not want to join.

chunkylover4

karlth wrote: »

Are you confusing Iceland with another country? Your post is so full of errors I don't know where to start correcting it!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008%E2%80%932011_Icelandic_financial_crisis

All the sources are linked in the article, if the article is incorrect fair enough,

I said: 1) IMF gave a bailout ) There were very few convictions and 3) Iceland joined the EU in 2009 4) Devaluation dropped wages massivley

chunkylover4

The IMF-led package of $4.6bn was finally agreed on 19 November, with the IMF loaning $2.1bn and another $2.5bn of loans and currency swaps from Norway, Sweden, Finland and Denmark. In addition, Poland has offered to lend $200M and the Faroe Islands have offered $50M, about 3% of Faroese GDP.[108] The Icelandic government reported that Russia offered to lend $500M, and Poland, $200M.[109] The next day, Germany, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom announced a joint loan of $6.3bn (€5bn), related to the deposit insurance dispute.[110][111]

chunkylover4

Also apologies, I meant Iceland began the process of joining the EU which gave them more credibility on global markets

karlth

chunkylover4 wrote: »

The IMF-led package of $4.6bn was finally agreed on 19 November, with the IMF loaning $2.1bn and another $2.5bn of loans and currency swaps from Norway, Sweden, Finland and Denmark. In addition, Poland has offered to lend $200M and the Faroe Islands have offered $50M, about 3% of Faroese GDP.[108] The Icelandic government reported that Russia offered to lend $500M, and Poland, $200M.[109] The next day, Germany, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom announced a joint loan of $6.3bn (€5bn), related to the deposit insurance dispute.[110][111]

Not one euro of those loans has been used and all are in the process of being paid back with the original loans themselves. Due to the fall in currency there has been an export surplus for the last 4 years which has been used to pay back other debts.

PS. The Netherlands/UK loan was never made. It was a part of the Icesave dispute which the Netherlands/UK lost in courts several months ago.

karlth

chunkylover4 wrote: »

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008%E2%80%932011_Icelandic_financial_crisisThere were very few convictions

Have been few convictions. All the major cases are still ongoing. All the CEOs of the major banks have been charged. Most of the charges have to do with inappropriate loans and/or share-price fixing.

bmaxi

Phoebas wrote: »

... and then take to the polling booths to put them right back in again.

I see what you did there. Took one phrase from the body my post, which altered the whole tenor of it, so your reply wouldn't look ridiculous. Pity.

Anynama141

bmaxi wrote: »

I see what you did there. Took one phrase from the body my post, which altered the whole tenor of it, so your reply wouldn't look ridiculous. Pity.

It does rather look like you were crediting the Icelanders with political acumen that they simply don't have. They seem to have looked for easy options, short-term solutions and scapegoats. They had more easy options than we do, having their own currency to debase.

I love this continuing delusion that cutting our budget deficit is just some sort of mad eccentric policy that FG/LAB are pursuing out of sheer contrariness.

hmmm

Oddly enough, one of the platforms for the new government is that "Iceland should be more like Ireland."

bmaxi

Anynama141 wrote: »

It does rather look like you were crediting the Icelanders with political acumen that they simply don't have. They seem to have looked for easy options, short-term solutions and scapegoats. They had more easy options than we do, having their own currency to debase.

I love this continuing delusion that cutting our budget deficit is just some sort of mad eccentric policy that FG/LAB are pursuing out of sheer contrariness.

The point is that Icelanders demonstrated that, unlike Ireland, the power will remain among the people. I dispute that they looked for scapegoats, they tried, convicted and jailed proven corrupt people.
Nobody can dispute that our budget deficit needs to be cut, but why is it at the level it's at? It's because of the actions of corrupt politicians, bankers and businessmen, who are still living high on the hog while the rest of the population is driven towards penury, by either those same people or at their behest.
We have known, at least since the 1970s, with Liffey Valley, Lawlor, Burke et al that our establishment, whatever the hue, was corrupt. We have paid King's ransoms for tribunals, enquiries, court cases etc. but how many of those involved were ever convicted, jailed or even demoted. We have had widespread corruption in the Gardai, the judiciary, local and national politics, the Civil Service, the legal profession so the question has to be, who is left that we can trust to do what is right in the interests of the country and it's future? The answer is not going to come from the ranks of the current or prospective governments.

Anynama141

bmaxi wrote: »

It's because of the actions of corrupt politicians, bankers and businessmen, who are still living high on the hog while the rest of the population is driven towards penury, by either those same people or at their behest.

It's at the level it's at because we have an extremely generous welfare system and a pretty inefficient public service. Unfortunately some feel that we can't touch either.

bmaxi wrote: »

We have known, at least since the 1970s, with Liffey Valley, Lawlor, Burke et al that our establishment, whatever the hue, was corrupt. We have paid King's ransoms for tribunals, enquiries, court cases etc. but how many of those involved were ever convicted, jailed or even demoted. We have had widespread corruption in the Gardai, the judiciary, local and national politics, the Civil Service, the legal profession so the question has to be, who is left that we can trust to do what is right in the interests of the country and it's future? The answer is not going to come from the ranks of the current or prospective governments.

The tribunals etc. have cost hundreds of millions. Our welfare system and PS costs tens of billions ANNUALLY.

I'm not advocating severe cuts to welfare, but when it makes more financial sense for people to sit at home than to go out to work, we have a big problem and are - additionally - being extremely unfair to the low paid.

karlth

hmmm wrote: »

Oddly enough, one of the platforms for the new government is that "Iceland should be more like Ireland."

I don't remember any political party even mentioning Ireland.

karlth

Anynama141 wrote: »

It does rather look like you were crediting the Icelanders with political acumen that they simply don't have. They seem to have looked for easy options, short-term solutions and scapegoats. They had more easy options than we do, having their own currency to debase.

Absolutely correct. In a few months the assets of the bankrupt banks will be used to reduce mortgages by around 20%, lower the government's debt by 10-20% and abolish currency controls.

Having your own currency and staying out of the EU gives a nation the option of handling its economy purely on its own terms. And in a time of crisis that is absolutely essential.

bmaxi

Anynama141 wrote: »

It's at the level it's at because we have an extremely generous welfare system and a pretty inefficient public service. Unfortunately some feel that we can't touch either.

The tribunals etc. have cost hundreds of millions. Our welfare system and PS costs tens of billions ANNUALLY.

I'm not advocating severe cuts to welfare, but when it makes more financial sense for people to sit at home than to go out to work, we have a big problem and are - additionally - being extremely unfair to the low paid.

First of all, you're not comparing like with like. The tribunals cost hundreds of millions to deal with the corrupt activities of a few individuals, the welfare system deals with over half a million, many of them in their situation because of these corrupt activities. On a pro-rata basis, no individual on welfare could, in a lifetime, cost as much as these corrupt individuals. The success rate of the tribunals was abysmal when it came to punishing the offenders, they achieved nothing for the expenditure
For the most part welfare payments are a claim on an insurance policy, people have paid their premiums and are collecting on maturity but there is no doubt that the system is open to abuse. Policing of the system is laughable at best.
The Public Service again. is an example of political corruption. In the 1990s , Ahern, that pillar of society, thought he'd never get enough people into the Public Service and the more "foot soldiers" there were, the more generals were needed to command them but in time of crisis, it's the foot soldiers who are being decommissioned, while the officer corps are left untouched. The officer corps of course, being the aides de camp of the politicians.
Why was it necessary to hire all these public servants if, as you said, it hasn't increased the efficiency of the Public Service? I can make a pretty good guess at the answer.

Anynama141

bmaxi wrote: »

First of all, you're not comparing like with like. The tribunals cost hundreds of millions to deal with the corrupt activities of a few individuals, the welfare system deals with over half a million, many of them in their situation because of these corrupt activities. On a pro-rata basis, no individual on welfare could, in a lifetime, cost as much as these corrupt individuals.

I agree entirely, and was making no such comparison. In fact the damage due to planning corruption is far greater again than the mere cost of the tribunals.

The point is that the cost of the tribunals is a drop in the ocean compared to ongoing costs.

bmaxi wrote: »

For the most part welfare payments are a claim on an insurance policy, people have paid their premiums and are collecting on maturity but there is no doubt that the system is open to abuse.

This is certainly true today, when most people on the dole are former workers who would rather be in employment. 5 years ago, most people were voluntarily unemployed/unemployable.

bmaxi wrote: »

Policing of the system is laughable at best.
The Public Service again. is an example of political corruption. In the 1990s , Ahern, that pillar of society, thought he'd never get enough people into the Public Service and the more "foot soldiers" there were, the more generals were needed to command them but in time of crisis, it's the foot soldiers who are being decommissioned, while the officer corps are left untouched. The officer corps of course, being the aides de camp of the politicians.
Why was it necessary to hire all these public servants if, as you said, it hasn't increased the efficiency of the Public Service? I can make a pretty good guess at the answer.

I agree entirely.

bmaxi

Anynama141 wrote: »

The point is that the cost of the tribunals is a drop in the ocean compared to ongoing costs.

This is debatable. It could be argued that had the Beef Tribunal been prosecuted to the full and with impartiality, then it's likely the gangsters who brought about the situation we currently find ourselves in would not be around today. Crooked money that was used to return FF to power in 1997 might not have been available.
There are many unanswered questions still, about that unfortunate (for the Irish taxpayer) episode.