Punchestown Day 4

longshotvalue

4:20 Punchestown

White Start Line looks a great price on Paddy Power at 11/1. He is off what looks a great mark of 130 considering he ran very well at the festival of a higher mark the last 2 years. He Didn’t seem to get the longer trip at the festival and the few furlongs shorter here will surly help. He is one of the most experienced novice’s in the field and I would have thought he would be favourite here. He travelled supremely well at Cheltenham and a repeat here would give him a great shout.

2 Points win 11/1 Paddy Power

Perth 4:35

Pettifour looks to be a decent price for this race tomorrow. He has run well this year of this mark, and I don’t think he will be inconvenienced by the decent ground. The price is probably an overreaction to his last poor run, but he had run possibly too many times in the space of a few weeks. He has had a decent 6 week break since his last run and isn’t a 14/1 shot here.

1 Point win 14/1 Ladbrokes

UrbanSea

Totally agree about White Star Line but not having a bet. Anything I touched today turned to ****

shy-tall-knight

The Hurricane Fly, Pont Alexandre double likely to be very popular. Not a big man for the doubles and have been avoiding short price horses like the plague this week but this is one that looks solid.
Might wait until the morning and see if any bookies are doing an enhanced offer on it.

Johner

Treacle 10/1.

the groutch

will be doing a big enough double on Ponte Alexander & Salsify, hard to see either getting beat.

3ndahalfof6

Some that might be worth looking at,

4:20 THE REAL ARTICLE, and SAOIRSE DUN

4:55 MR GOODENOUGH, and SADDLERS STORM,

I might be fooked in the head, but I think 1 of the above might do the business.

Colonel Sanders

Another Sportinglife forecast gem, Pont Alexandre 15/8

FFS just send any of us on here a crate of beer every month for doing it & they'd get better forecasts

mountai

Dont know if I should take with Enniskillen in the first tomorrow.He was out on Monday and finished down the field.The fact that the trainer runs him again could be a pointer. I will watch the market with interest.

RichieLawlor

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Another Sportinglife forecast gem, Pont Alexandre 15/8

FFS just send any of us on here a crate of beer every month for doing it & they'd get better forecasts

They should be forced to lay those prices themselves, that would teach the lazy bastards to do some actual research

the groutch

Evening Herald are worse, they'd put up 3/1 for an odds on favorite on a regular basis.

Colonel Sanders

RichieLawlor wrote: »

They should be forced to lay those prices themselves, that would teach the lazy bastards to do some actual research

Myself & one of the lads have often said similar. They should have to lay em to 200 quid. Some are so off its not funny. Willie Mullins bumper horses or O'Brien 2yos 1st time out at double figures

The worst ever used to be (probably still is, haven't bought it in years) the evening herald. Used to buy it to read on the bus home from college on Friday night. The city final edition had the decs for Saturday.

Colonel Sanders

the groutch wrote: »

Evening Herald are worse, they'd put up 3/1 for an odds on favorite on a regular basis.

Snap!

Straffan1979

Shangani in the 4.20, venetias not sending this lad over for the crack, will love the ground

mailburner

wonder if un atout might take pont myself?
threw a few quid on there at 5/2

that race couldnt have worked out much better at chelt
with mtoy and jezki winning very impressively since

ubak anohter interesting one especially after the aintree run
but it looked a below average grade 2 to me

ShaneU

Going to back all the Mullins' horses blindly.

prettyboy81

Hurricane Fly & Ponte Alexander double pays about 11/10 but the form of the Supreme Novices race has me leaning towards Un Atout....

longshotvalue

prettyboy81 wrote: »

Hurricane Fly & Ponte Alexander double pays about 11/10 but the form of the Supreme Novices race has me leaning towards Un Atout....

dont really like that double, both are about the price they should be; if a bit shorter and it doesnt looks great value..

Nonoperational

I don't know if I'd be lumping on Salsify tomorrow. Love the horse, but was at Cheltenham and might like the going a bit better. Oscar Delta had him beat at Cheltenham, but Sweeney gave him an awful amount of work to do!

Johner

The double pays better than 5/4 on Bet Victor.

UrbanSea

Salsify has a poor record on heavy ground

Johner

Would loved to have seen Tammys Hill running tomorrow.

ste2010

Didn't Eddie OGrady get some ban or something at leopardstown for the way the real article was run LTO?
Surely it's a sign he was being saved for this or for something t galway? Anyone any input on this

jimjamcos

Tomorrow looks tough...

5.30 Thousand Stars W/O HF: Can't see Rock On Ruby showing his best whatsoever on current going so looking for a horse to beat him to 2nd. Thousand Stars is a fairly consistent type who always seems to be primed for this time of year with Aintree and France in mind. Rock On Ruby was sent here in the hope that they'd get good ground but the heavy ground will be a massive negative for him. He'll probably still take it up from the front anyway but will be easily picked up by Hurricane Fly when it comes to the straight. Hopefully ROR will have emptied his tank by then and allow Thousand Stars to stay on by him. As far as I can see, ROR has only ever ran on proper heavy once in his career - 1st time out this season when 3rd behind Zarkander and Grandouet - and while clearly not fully fit that day, his chances rely on setting a breakneck pace which heavy ground wont allow. Hopefully TS will be relieved of the burden of being Hurricane Fly's pacemaker by ROR and run his own race from off the pace. Speculative punt.

6.05 Un Atout: Pont Alexandre is the obvious winner but given what they've both achieved so far, I think it's worth backing Un Atout purely on a value basis. They're routes so far have been fairly similar. Both hacked up in poor races on bad ground in Ireland pre-Cheltenham and both found themselves outpaced by quicker opponents come the festival in a similar standard of race. Un Atout's breeding (close relative to Sir Des Champs...Davy's on record as saying "he is what SDC is, only better") suggests he's crying out for a trip so extra distance should see improvement from him. The only difference in both horses which can explain their prices tomorrow is the hype from Mullins yard that Pont Alexandre is on a different level to any other novice they have. We will find out if that's the case tomorrow but for now I'm happy to oppose PA. The heavy ground will suit both horses fine but maybe PA slightly better as he looks a thorough stayer who relishes a slog in testing conditions. PA is likely to take it up early and make it a test but I think Un Atout could prove just as classy over tomorrows trip and would rather back him around the 3/1 mark than Pont Alexandre at 4/6.

6.40 Moscow Mannon: Waheeb has been a major disappointment this season and not sure heavy ground is to his liking. Mullins favourite could be a bit special but beat very little on debut. 4th in a good Champion Bumper last season, Moscow Mannon mixed it with the likes of Annie Power, Defy Logic and Don Cossack a couple of runs back and has had a fairly light campaign this season. Shouldn't be inconvenienced by bad ground.

7.45 Salsify: Like Cheltenham, ground will not be in Salsify's favour and it's very likely redemption could be on the cards for Jane Mangan and Oscar Delta (almost hope so). Salsify needs to be ridden off the pace - hard to do at Cheltenham when those at front get first run at hill - but I think he'll be ridden closer to Oscar Delta tomorrow and on easier track should prove the class horse in the race.

unitedrover

I was going to question whether Pont Alexandre could be beaten tomorrow but I've seen enough on un atout to answer that. Moving onto the hunters chase I can't understand why Oscar Delta is the same price as salsify. Certainly the ground is an issue for Salsify but he is far classier. Oscar Delta prior to Cheltenham had poor point to point form and I get the feeling his price is down to the fact he had Salsify beat that day. I'm unconvinced he can repeat that so Salsify is the one for me. Having said that I'm a great fan of Jane's and wont begrudge her a win here.

ste2010

Cops and robbers extremely overpriced based on his last run behind pique sous
14-1!!!

djone349

wont be touching pont alexandre at odds on (not saying it wont win) just think his odds are far too short after his failed attempt at cheltenham.

just 2 bets for me tomorrow hurricane fly and rock on ruby straight forecast. if my calculations are correct it pays around 6/4 and my second bet is bluemountainbeach running at 7.10 hoping to get odds around 5/2

slaneylad

mountai wrote: »

Dont know if I should take with Enniskillen in the first tomorrow.He was out on Monday and finished down the field.The fact that the trainer runs him again could be a pointer. I will watch the market with interest.

I was in Punchestown on Tuesday and I backed Enniskillen. He absolutely flew after the last he must have passed 6 horses on the run in. When I was watching this the first thing I thought was what was the point of running on when the race was over. My second thought was I wonder will they run him later in the week. I suppose I'll have to have a small e/w bet on him again. However tomorrows race is only 2m4f. I was hoping they would try a longer trip. Hopefully the opposition are not as good as Tuesdays

rossom

3.15 Sandown

Galileo Rock 15/2

This looks a very big price in my book for David Wachman's 3 year old who I think will improve enormously now a 3 year old, stepped up in trip and running on proper quick ground in this Derby Trial. I could not have been more impressed with Galileo Rock's racecourse debut when absolutely blitzing the field on unsuitably soft ground by 7L over a mile at Leopardstown last August. My immediate thought after that victory was that is the Derby winner and although his last run has changed my tune I still think a Derby victory is possible if he's progressed in the manner I think he should have. Galileo Rock was pitched into the Group 3 Autumn Stakes on his final start at Newmarket over the straight mile and although I was personally disappointed given I thought he was a machine prior to that run it was still a very encouraging run. Sitting just behind the pace, Galileo Rock looked like he lacked the straight line speed of his opponents when the race quickened as he faded to finish 5th beaten a little over 5L but it was still an encouraging performance over a trip I don't think we'll ever see him over again. He's got a bit more than a length to make up with tomorrow's 2nd favourite Eye Of The Storm but I definitely think he's got the ability to do so. One of the main reasons I was so impressed with Galileo Rock's win on debut as a 2 year old was that his 3/4 brother Saddlers Rock didn't see the racecourse until 3 and took 3 starts to get off the mark and there is no doubt in my mind he'll be a much better 3 year old. Additionally, he'll love the step up to 10f with a stiff finish and he'll be even better over further when he goes up in trip throughout his career. Connections have stated that this fella needs good ground (like Saddlers Rock) and he'll get just that tomorrow. Although I'm slightly worried about a lack of pace (hopefully Sugar Boy sets a good tempo) I'm confident of a big showing and David Wachman isn't sending him across the Irish Sea without a chance. Stable jockey Wayne Lordon comes across to take the ride and I'm confident of success for this 3 year old and 15/2 is a lovely price in my book.

4.20 Punchestown

Terminal 10/1

Although its definitely disconcerting that Ruby chooses Immediate Response (who he have never ridden) over this one but I'm hoping he has gotten it wrong as I think this handicap debutant looks on a very workable mark of 143. This 6 year old has only had 12 starts in his career to date (4 over fences) and joined Willie Mullins last year after winning 3 bumpers in France. He won 2 of his 4 starts over hurdles last year but already looks a much better chaser who I have been rather impressed with in his 4 starts over the larger obstacles. Terminal made a very nice debut when just failing to reel back the very useful yard stick Canaly on his chasing debut back in December over an inadequate 17f at Fairyhouse and he's shown a progressive profile since then. He got off the mark over fences at the 2nd time of asking when he won going away despite a few jumping errors over 20f at Cork back in January. Terminal won in extremely impressive fashion when stepped into Grade 2 Company at Navan back in February when comprehensively beating Tofino Bay by 5.5L (in receipt of 5lb) who has since franked the form strongly by narrowly going down in the 4 Miler at Cheltenham. That day he has a few jumping errors (which Willie Mullins thought was down to shadows on the course) but it was an impressive and authoritative victory against a very decent opponent. Terminal was pitched into the deep end at the Cheltenham Festival when running an excellent 10L beaten 5th but I think his performance was better than the mere form. Held up at the rear of the field, Terminal was making some nice progress going around the outside of the field but he made a shuddering error at 4 out that saw him drop about 5L off the main pack. However, David Casey allowed his mount to regroup and he stayed on really nicely late on to finish a highly respectable 5th. If he had not made that error, I definitely feel that Terminal would have finished a clear 3rd and I definitely feel there is more to come. Based on his 4 starts over the larger obstacles, I definitely feel he's on a very workable mark of 143 and I think it must have been a very difficult decision for Ruby to chose the current favourite. However, Paul Townend is a more than able deputy and he's sure to give him a good ride. Although he looks a stout stayer, I don't think the drop back to 2m5f will be a hindrance with the testing conditions at present and Willie Mullins couldn't have his horses in better form at the moment as illustrated by his tremendous 5 timer yesterday. This looks a traditionally tricky contest that will take a fair bit of winning under 11-9 but if he jumps cleanly then I see no reason why he shouldn't be bang there at the finish and hopefully he can land this nice prize.

4.55 Punchestown

In Great Form 14/1

This is last chance saloon for me with In Great Form but there is absolutely no doubt in my mind that he more than enough ability to win off his current mark of 117 and I think he will relish the step up to 3m6f today. Francis Flood's 8 year old looked like a horse on an a huge upward curve when winning a couple of handicaps at Fairyhouse last season before running an absolute blinder in the Grand National Trial at Punchestown last February off a mark of 121 when finishing an 11L beaten 3rd over 3m4f in a race that is really strong form. The winner Portrait King won the Eider off an 18lb higher mark less than a month later whilst the runner up Up The Beat ran a highly credible 4th in the Kim Muir off a 13lb higher mark on his only subsequent start. Additionally, In Great Form shaped like an out and out stayer that day and I've been waiting for him to be seen over a mammoth trip ever since. That was his last start last season and after a highly encouraging reappearance this year he ran an absolute blinder in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown when finishing a very good 5th off a mark 121 back in December. He looked liked he was still progressing based on that run but he's looked a shell of his former self since then. He was pulled up on his next two starts before being tailed off in the Leinster National two starts back but he looked as if he was coming back to form with a much more encouraging 4th at Fairyhouse LTO when staying on strongly over the 3m1f trip (still beaten 17L). It was definitely a step in the right direction but he certainly didn't look like a winner in waiting. I've literally no clue what happened to him since the Paddy Power Chase but I'm hoping Francis Flood has been aiming him at this and he comes here spot on. At the start of the season, I thought he looked an Aintree Grand National horse who I felt was up to achieving a mark in the 130s and although that has clearly gone out the window there is no doubt in my mind that he could blitz this field off 117 if showing his absolute best ability. He'll definitely appreciate every inch of the 3m6f trip today and has a featherweight of 9-11 to carry which could prove pivotal over this trip in testing conditions. Alan Crowe takes the ride and is a fine jockey who can make this weight and he's already familiar with him which is a big bonus. If his latest run at Fairyhouse was a sign that he's coming back to form then it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if he runs a monster in this and off 117 I think he has more than enough ability to land this long distance handicap.

rossom

I've also backed 1.30 Doncaster Youhavecontrol 20/1, 1.40 Sandown Secret Missile 18/1, 3.25 Perth Bobs Ticket 14/1 and 4.35 Perth Etxalar 10/1 as well.

RichieLawlor

Rock on Ruby won't be finishing second. His whole season was geared towards Cheltenham and he ran a belter. He won't be as sharp here, the ground is against him aswell. He will blast off in front and be treading water by the turn in, might finish 3rd or 4th if he gets home at all

Slattsy

Is there a horse in the first race owned by a bunch of Kildare farmers??

Overthelast

Richard Forristal has an insightful piece of advice to punters in todays headline in the Irish Independent. In his piece about the tissue 4/9 shot, the caption reads:

"Write off exceptional Hurricane Fly at your peril".

Who pays these people?

Moon Dice

Hey lads is there anyway of finding out what horses were sold after Punchestown yesterday?
There was an auction and a few horses went for €190000

clashburke

White Star Line non-runner

mountai

mountai wrote: »

Dont know if I should take with Enniskillen in the first tomorrow.He was out on Monday and finished down the field.The fact that the trainer runs him again could be a pointer. I will watch the market with interest.

Opened at a stupid price. Hopefully will drift and when it gets to a value E/W I will have a reasonable bet.

tedlad

Pont Alexander a non runner was going to back in atout aswell freaked I don't get it on in time

barney4001

just my luck i backed mullins horses on the wrong day

shy-tall-knight

tedlad wrote: »

Pont Alexander a non runner was going to back in atout aswell freaked I don't get it on in time

Would have made no difference, rule 4 would have kicked in.

Overthelast

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Rock on Ruby won't be finishing second. His whole season was geared towards Cheltenham and he ran a belter. He won't be as sharp here, the ground is against him aswell. He will blast off in front and be treading water by the turn in, might finish 3rd or 4th if he gets home at all

Was thinking the same. Thousand Stars w/o, as pointed out above, looks good.

sting60

Did anyone notice a horse running yesterday [not Punchestown] who is fancied to win at Royal Ascot.Its big talk for a small race winner on a Thursday in April.

Colonel Sanders

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Rock on Ruby won't be finishing second. His whole season was geared towards Cheltenham and he ran a belter. He won't be as sharp here, the ground is against him aswell. He will blast off in front and be treading water by the turn in, might finish 3rd or 4th if he gets home at all

I'm not going as far as to say "won't" finish 2nd but I'd be wary of taking a very short price (or doing a forecast) for this very reason

Apparently he looked tuned to the minute before the champion hurdle

TheMilkyPirate

I know it depends on the dividend but would a straight forecast on hurricane fly and thousand stars pay more than thousand stars w/o the fav??

hawkeyethenoo

does my pont and hurricane fly bet go to a single or is it void? cant remember what happens with a double.

TheMilkyPirate

hawkeyethenoo wrote: »

does my pont and hurricane fly bet go to a single or is it void? cant remember what happens with a double.

single

Mimikyu

This post has been deleted.

battser

Can't see much past the HF and un atout double just over evens but in the heavy I don't see any credible threat in either race.

Overthelast

hawkeyethenoo wrote: »

does my pont and hurricane fly bet go to a single or is it void? cant remember what happens with a double.

Single. 100% certain.

Slattsy

I dont fancy anything today really. Brutal racing.

BQQ

baraca wrote: »

I know it depends on the dividend but would a straight forecast on hurricane fly and thousand stars pay more than thousand stars w/o the fav??

forecast will pay more, but if TS wins the race you get nothing.

battser

BQQ wrote: »

forecast will pay more, but if TS wins the race you get nothing.

The forecast pays 11/2 it's on pp HF specials.

jimjamcos

Fuck this shit....just reading that Our Conor is out tomorrow too. One big bet for me.

Hurricane Fly to win by 5 1/2 lengths or more @13/8. ROR will struggle and HF sluice through the ground. Only danger is Ruby easing him down.