May 2013 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT, an average of five selected stations, which has averaged 11.1 C for the 30-yr period just ended in 2010.

2. Predict the highest daily maximum at any reporting (met.ie) station.

3. Predict the lowest daily minimum at any reporting (met.ie) station.

4. Predict the monthly precip as a percentage of normal (for 11 reporting stations in met.ie Monthly Summary)

5. Predict the monthly sunshine as a percentage of normal (for all reporting stations in met.ie Monthly Summary)

6. Bonus question ... Predict which date in May will produce the largest total rainfall in Ireland. This one needs a bit of explanation:

Each day, Met-E publish a table of daily weather statistics at about 20 stations around the country, under "latest weather / yesterday's weather" ... on rare occasions where the rainfall is missing, we can look it up on the same site under "past weather / daily data." The contest bonus, then, will be to predict which of the 31 days in May will produce the highest total in that table. If you choose a wet day that isn't tops, you'll score some points. Here's the scoring protocol ...

10 pts for heaviest rainfall date correct
8 pts for date of heaviest rainfall, one day off
6 pts for date of heaviest rainfall, two days off
4 pts for date etc three days off
2 pts for date etc four days off

then 9 pts for second heaviest date correct, followed by 7,5,3,1 for close dates.

then 8 pts for third, followed by 6,4,2 for near misses.

then 6 pts for fourth, 3 pts for missing by one day

and finally 5 pts for fifth, 2 pts for missing by one day

Also, the scoring must exceed these minimum values ... 8,8,7,7,7,6,6,6,6 etc
Finally, the score is determined from highest single statistic, you can't combine wet days close to your guess.

I will post an ongoing validation, it's something that will help with my research so it's not unwelcome work for me.

Guesses (on the usual form, see post #2) should just be one number for the date selected, and that should be 1 to 31 ... guesses outside May will be invalid no matter what happens on those dates.

Guesses made after the start of penalty time (0300h 2nd) cannot be for the first of May. The same rule applies to all days thereafter, you can only guess days that have not totally expired. Our time penalties are greater than any advantage you could gain from waiting to see.

Hope you find this to be fun and mildly educational. I'm sure I will.

Late penalties -- As usual, 5 pts deducted for entries on 2nd (0300-1500h), 10pts on 2nd (1500-0300h 3rd) etc ... entries can always be made until penalties reach 100, but we recommend 4th as latest entry or you'll likely score net zero.

Entry form next post, or enter directly on this thread.

M.T. Cranium

Just a further note to clarify the bonus question, we're looking at the total rainfalls at all stations, not the highest single amount ... I can't give you an exact number but something like an average rainfall of 10-15 mm around the country would probably set this statistic most years, and one or two places could then see 30-50, if that helps you to visualize what we're forecasting. Look at it this way, you can't miss by more than 15 days if you say the 16th.

Now, here's the form, once again artfully supplied by Missing in Action, I mean Sponge Bob.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/viewform?formkey=dElyZTJQeUJzVjdnQ1JBcThYdHpCSEE6MQ#gid=1

Bsal

Done.

200motels

Done.

Gonzo

done

M.T. Cranium

post ed it

pauldry

done

omicron

Done.

John mac

done. (forgot this month!)

Tae laidir

Done
(Would rather forget about this month)

Rikand

done

pauldry

Can I change my IMT to 11 for the May contest and my Max to 24c or am I too late??

Barbeques at the ready

talkabout

Done

delw

Done

dasa29

Done

mickger844posts

done

homolumo

done

Harps

Done

lostinashford

Done, love the fancy new layout!

waterways

Done.

Hammer Archer

Yikes! Nearly forgot again.
Done.

nilhg

Done

H2UMrsRobinson

Done

DOCARCH

Done

Jpmarn

Done

dacogawa

Done

Joe Public

Done it

SeaFields

Done

Speak Now

10.8 ..... 26.0 ..... 0 .... 85% ..... 115% ..... May 03rd

okla

Done.

Rocky Bay

Present and accounted for.

rameire

sorted, not having the same luck as last year.

traecy1

Done

M.T. Cranium

May forecasts
_______________________

Forecaster ___________ IMT ___ MAX ___ MIN ___ PRC ___ SUN ___ wet day

bejubby (-10) ________ 16.5 ___ 21.0 ___+2.0 ___ 095 ___ 105 ___ 29
Joe Public ___________ 11.9 ___ 24.9 ___ -3.9 ___ 079 ___ 129 ___ 03
homolumo __________ 11.9 ___ 24.1 ___+1.0 ___ 099 ___ 109 ___ 21
Bsal _______________ 11.9 ___ 20.1 ___ -0.2 ___ 104 ___ 099 ___ 08
Mickger844posts _____ 11.8 ___ 23.1 ___ -1.4 ___ 083 ___ 113 ___ 03
DOCARCH ___________ 11.8 ___ 22.8 ___+1.8 ___ 092 ___ 103 ___ 12
Hammer Archer ______ 11.7 ___ 20.5 ___+1.1 ___ 085 ___ 108 ___ 23
traecy.1 ____________ 11.5 ___ 25.2 ___+1.5 ___ 085 ___ 110 ___ 29
jpmarn _____________ 11.5 ___ 22.9 ___ -0.8 ___ 109 ___ 110 ___ 17
waterways __________ 11.4 ___ 25.0 ___ -2.0 ___ 115 ___ 130 ___ 28
dacogawa ___________ 11.4 ___ 24.3 ___ -1.4 ___ 092 ___ 112 ___ 21
Gonzo ______________ 11.4 ___ 22.6 ___ -1.3 ___ 112 ___ 094 ___ 22
nilhg _______________ 11.3 ___ 23.2 ___+2.1 ___ 105 ___ 095 ___ 19
jd _________________ 11.3 ___ 23.1 ___ +0.2 ___ 088 ___ 103 ___ 14
lostinashford ________ 11.2 ___ 19.7 ___ -0.8 ___ 077 ___ 106 ___ 17
Rocky Bay __________ 11.2 ___ 19.0 ____ 0.0 ___ 054 ___ 064 ___ 31
omicron ____________ 11.1 ___ 21.0 ___ -1.0 ___ 100 ___ 100 ___ 15

Con Sensus __________ 11.1 ___ 22.8 ___ -0.4 ___ 092 ___ 109 ___ 17


Tae laidir ___________ 11.0 ___ 27.0 ___ +0.1 ___ 092 ___ 108 ___ 27
Pauldry _____________ 11.0 ___ 24.0 ___ -1.8 ___ 120 ___ 090 ___ 06
Talkabout ___________ 11.0 ___ 23.3 ___ -1.7 ___ 090 ___ 120 ___ 26
kindredspirit _________ 11.0 ___ 22.5 __ +0.5 ___ 088 ___ 115 ___ 20
Rickylovesuall _______ 11.0 ___ 22.0 ___ -2.0 ___ 090 ___ 120 ___ 26
Harps ______________ 10.9 ___ 23.2 ___ -0.6 ___ 080 ___ 090 ___ 19
Jerry Seinfeld ________ 10.8 ___ 26.0 ____ 0.0 ___ 085 ___ 115 ___ 03
200motels __________ 10.8 ___ 24.9 ___ -0.2 ___ 085 ___ 109 ___ 21
M.T. Cranium ________ 10.7 ___ 22.2 ___ -3.0 ___ 110 ___ 090 ___ 24
seafields ____________ 10.5 ___ 20.0 ___+3.5 ___ 080 ___ 120 ___ 17
snowstreams ________ 10.4 ___ 23.7 ___ -0.4 ___ 086 ___ 110 ___ 24
okla _______________ 10.3 ___ 22.9 ___ -1.8 ___ 088 ___ 115 ___ 21
rameire ____________ 10.0 ___ 22.0 ____ 0.0 ___ 085 ___ 116 ___ 12
delw _______________ 10.0 ___ 21.0 ____ 0.0 ___ 097 ___ 094 ___ 19
dasa29 _____________ 10.0 ___ 20.0 ____ 0.0 ___ 095 ___ 120 ___ 15
John mac ____________ 9.9 ___ 23.1 ___+0.1 ___ 104 ___ 093 ___ 03
H2UMrsRobinson ______ 7.4 ___ 19.4 ___ -1.1 ___ 078 ___ 087 ___ 16

Joe Public

It was a bit above 100mm yesterday - wet enough!

M.T. Cranium

Yes, I will keep up a daily report starting today, as first and second produced small amounts and nobody guessed them anyway, also there's some data issues to be resolved for Shannon om first, so expect this list to change later to give more accurate totals for first and second. The total for the third as Joe indicates is probably over 100 mm with Dublin, Knock incomplete (I could search for them in ogimet or whatever but may as well just wait for the met site to update in daily data).

So far these are reported totals for the 18 stations listed, exact figures will be provided when I have them:

1. 16 mm
2. 10.5 mm
3. 96.3 mm (est 110)
4.

Meanwhile a MIN reading of 1.0 at Moorepark on 2nd appears to be the current low for May.

This table will be updated about once a week and/or after wet days.

Bejubby

Quick question, whats the -10 before the forecasts on my list?
Im guessing a penalty maybe??

Jpmarn

Bejubby wrote: »

Quick question, whats the -10 before the forecasts on my list?
Im guessing a penalty maybe??

It is a penalty of 10 points for late entry. Usually the deadline for entry without penalty is 3am on the 2 nd of the month.

Bejubby

Jpmarn wrote: »

It is a penalty of 10 points for late entry. Usually the deadline for entry without penalty is 3am on the 2 nd of the month.

Ah ye thats grand.
Thought i had put it in as a lowest temp for may aswell,ha!

Oh well penalty it is.

M.T. Cranium

IMT at 11.1 C after seven days. Will report on precip and sunshine when data complete, looks a bit dull so far and after today above normal rainfall.

On the daily rainfall bonus question, data are now complete for all stations and it rained heavily in the southwest before midnight, which may prevent today from overtaking the 3rd (Bsal has today). We shall see tomorrow, but here's the list so far:

1.....16.0
2.....10.5
3...112.4 (1)
4.......7.5
5.....23.4
6.....18.9
7.....91.2 (2)

pauldry

Is there an annual forecast contest this year?

M.T. Cranium

Sorry this is a bit late, all the scores from 2013 ... as you know, the annual contest main award is based on your best ten out of twelve, so at this point, if you've missed one or two, you're still eligible. If you have missed a month you can compare more realistically by checking entrants above your current score and dropping their lowest score so far. On that basis, Hammer Archer and cherryghost are closer to the leading pack than it appears. Let me know if you see any errors here, I had all four months in this editing box at one point so the scores should be correct.


2013 Annual Scoring race
___________________________

Forecaster __________ J __ F __ M __ A ___ Total


dasa29 ____________ 35 _ 76 _ 69 _ 61 ___ 241
Tae laidir __________ 73 _ 68 _ 38 _ 59 ___ 238
homolumo _________ 69 _ 72 _ 40 _ 50 ___ 231
harps _____________ 73 _ 61 _ 47 _ 48 ___ 229
Jerry Seinfeld _______ 69 _ 54 _ 45 _ 60 ___ 228

Con Sensus ________ 75 _ 69 _ 24 _ 60 ___ 228

Pauldry ___________ 59 _ 60 _ 34 _ 53 ___ 206
kindredspirit _______ 66 _ 34 _ 55 _ 51 ___ 206
200motels _________ 54 _ 61 _ 36 _ 52 ___ 203
okla ______________ 52 _ 43 _ 47 _ 60 ___ 202
delw ______________ 46 _ 56 _ 66 _ 34 ___ 202
DOCARCH __________ 42 _ 50 _ 36 _ 73 ___ 201
mickger844posts ____ 35 _ 67 _ 40 _ 54 ___ 196
waterways _________ 57 _ 70 _ 21 _ 45 ___ 193
traecy.1 ___________ 79 _ 36 _ 21 _ 54 ___ 190
Strasser ___________ 69 _ 38 _ 28 _ 54 ___ 189
talkabout __________ 52 _ 58 _ 31 _ 44 ___ 185
dacogawa _________ 51 _ 56 _ 35 _ 43 ___ 185
nilhg _____________ 44 _ 47 _ 41 _ 50 ___ 182
Bsal ______________ 54 _ 35 _ 53 _ 38 ___ 180
Joe Public __________ 25 _ 58 _59 _ 35 ___ 177
jd ________________ 49 _ 67 _ 14 _ 46 ___ 176
rameire ____________ 60 _ 29 _ 44 _42 ___ 175
Hammer Archer _____ 63 _ 60 _ --- _ 46 ___ 169
omicron ___________ 47 _ 49 _ 22 _ 50 ___ 168
Rickylovesuall ______ 41 _ 48 _ 18 _ 56 ___ 163
M.T. Cranium _______ 34 _ 39 _ 31 _ 52 ___ 156
Rebelbrowser _______ 52 _ 14 _ 33 _ 55 ___ 154
cherryghost ________ 71 _ 58 _ 21 _ -- ___ 150
H2UMrsRobinson ____ 41 _ 36 _ 22 _ 44 ___ 143
jpmarn ____________ 36 _ 47 _ 23 _ 35 ___ 141
lostinashford _______ 27 _ 43 _ 29 _ 39 ___ 138
Seafields __________ 35 _ 33 _ 16 _ 49 ___ 133
Bejubby ___________ -- _ 46 _ 44 _ 40 ___ 130
jambofc ___________ 71 _ 54 -- _ -- _ ____ 125
snowstreams ________ -- _ 54 _ 29 _ 36 ___ 119
nabber ____________ -- _ 69 _ 38 _ -- ___ 107
dexter647 __________ -- _ 32 _ -- _ 63 ____ 95
John mac ___________ 50 _ 23 _ 21 _ -- ____ 94
MiNdGaM3 __________ 30 _ 32 _ -- _ -- _____ 62

________________________________

Lone entries, ineligible for annual contest

Gonzo 30 (Mar)
E. Fudd 55 (Feb)
Deank 53 (Feb)
baraca 50 (Feb)

Deep Easterly 69 (Jan)
Danno 65 (Jan)
howlinwolf 59 (Jan)
"plan comes together" 53 (Jan)
Rocky Bay 43 (Jan)
NIALL_D 35 (Jan)
BEASTERLY 34 (Jan)

Joe Public

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

IMT at 11.1 C after seven days. Will report on precip and sunshine when data complete, looks a bit dull so far and after today above normal rainfall.

On the daily rainfall bonus question, data are now complete for all stations and it rained heavily in the southwest before midnight, which may prevent today from overtaking the 3rd (Bsal has today). We shall see tomorrow, but here's the list so far:

1.....16.0
2.....10.5
3...112.4 (1)
4.......7.5
5.....23.4
6.....18.9
7.....91.2 (2)

8.....156.2

M.T. Cranium

That's what I came to say ^^

so 8th is now (1) and 3rd drops to (2), scores are going to fan out from each wet day so that only takes two points away (so far) from the folks who predicted a wet day on the 3rd, for the time being Bsal now has ten points unless an even wetter day happens. Which seems possible ... that's an average of 8.6 mm for the 8th, not insurmountable. I see a lot of us went "over the event horizon" into late May, but on the current charts, quite a few days look rather wet. Today will not likely defeat any of the top three so far, although it may produce about 50-60 mm in total?

And no I am not up late, just very very early.

pauldry

Today in Sligo has seen quite a lot of rain .
May looks quite a very wet month indeed so any dat could be the wettest

Today will run up a big total in north and west but not all stations so yesterday could be safe for a couple more days yet

Looking at met summary it looks like may 9 may be close to 8th in rain totals

M.T. Cranium

Well then, it turns out that the 9th was almost as wet as the 8th, with Sherkin Island down (power failure?) and likely to add about 10 mm to the otherwise total of 137.1 mm. So, here's a table of amounts so far, and points on the provisional basis of one future day wetter than 8th and another future day hitting fourth place ahead of the 3rd (just speculation of course, could easily be five more days wetter than the 8th for all we know). I've added all the names so we can move forward in great tingling anticipation.

1.....16.0 ... 0 points ... no guesses
2.....10.5 ... 2 points? ... no guesses
3...112.4 (5) ... 4 points? ... Jerry S, Joe P, JohnMac, Mickger844posts
4.......7.5 ... 2 points? ... no guesses
5.....23.4 ... 3 points ... no guesses
6.....18.9 ... 5 points ... Pauldry
7.....91.2 ... 7 points ... no guesses
8...156.2 ... (2) ... 9 points ... Bsal
9...147.0... (3) ... 7 points ... no guesses
10.
11.
12. ... DOCARCH, rameire
13.
14. ... jd
15. ... omicron, dasa29
16. ... H2UMrsRobinson
17. jpmarn, lostinashford, Con Sensus, Seafields
18.
19. ... nilhg, harps, delw
20. ... kindredspirit
21. ... homolumo, dacogawa, 200motels, okla
22. ... Gonzo
23. ... Hammer Archer
24. ... MTC, snowstreams
25.
26. ... talkabout, Rickylovesuall
27. ... Tae laidir
28. ... waterways
29. ... bejubby, traecy1
30.
31. ... Rocky Bay
___________________________________________________

If you missed it, I posted the annual scoring numbers a few days ago in this thread.

pauldry

it will be very close between the 8th and 9th as valencia/valentia got 16mm and if sherkin is around that there will be raindrops in it

Still it wont matter as there is a deluge to come for the rest of May methinks and freezing to boot.

June will be warm though I pray:)

M.T. Cranium

IMT appears to be close to 10.5 (some missing data for Casement) and the 10th and 11th produced total rainfalls of about 60 mm (again, one or two missing stations at this point), so they won't factor into the contest. I estimate that the rainfall is now at 120% and sunshine at 80%.

M.T. Cranium

IMT on 10.0 C with a range among the five stations from 9.6 to 10.6.

I am not at home to retrieve daily rainfall data from past days but the period since I last updated has been in the 50-70 mm a day range, not likely to be ranked top five by month end but 3rd remains in third place, no data yet for Sherkin since they went down so can't say which day (8th, 9th) is first and second yet.

Joe Public

Saturday is shaping up to be a very wet day but nobody has the 18th, a few have the 19th so if the bulk of the rain arrives a bit later they may catch it.

M.T. Cranium

Updated table of daily rainfall amounts for the 18 stations in "yesterday's weather" section of Met.ie website.

Sherkin is still missing from 9th to 15th and Shannon so far not in 15th. I will edit these changes into the table or report on them later. Totals for 9th contain an estimate for Sherkin but after that, no estimates involved so these numbers will increase slightly.

1.....16.0 ... 0 points ... no guesses
2.....10.5 ... 2 points? ... no guesses
3...112.4 (3rd now, 4th soon?) ... 4 points or more? ... Jerry S, Joe P, JohnMac, Mickger844posts
4.......7.5 ... 2 points? ... no guesses
5.....23.4 ... 3 points? ... no guesses
6.....18.9 ... 5 points? ... Pauldry
7.....91.2 ... 7 points? ... no guesses
8...156.2 ... (1st now, 2nd soon?) ... 9 points? ... Bsal
9...145.5... (2nd now, 3rd soon?) ... 7 points? ... no guesses
10...49.5 ... 5 points? ... no guesses
11...56.0 ... 3 points? ... no guesses
12...54.4 ... 1 point? ... DOCARCH, rameire
13...57.3 ... no guesses
14...60.9 ... jd
15...22.7 ... 2 points? ... omicron, dasa29
16...89.6 ... (4th now) ... 5 points (for 5th)? ... H2UMrsRobinson
17...29.3 ... 7 or 8 points more likely from 18th?? ... jpmarn, lostinashford, Con Sensus, Seafields
18... MTC predicts 150+
19. May be a small total unless the wet Saturday stalls well beyond midnight
... ... still good for perhaps 7-8 points for ... nilhg, harps, delw
20. ... ... 5-6 points could be tossed this way from Saturday's total for ... kindredspirit
21. ... ... 3-4 points could be left over from Saturday for ... homolumo, dacogawa, 200motels, okla
22. ... Gonzo
23. ... Hammer Archer
24. ... MTC, snowstreams
25.
26. ... talkabout, Rickylovesuall
27. ... Tae laidir
28. ... waterways
29. ... bejubby, traecy1
30.
31. ... Rocky Bay
_____________________________________________________

Points are speculative at this stage, based on the idea that one day (edit, no doubt Saturday 18th) could be wetter than the 8th (or the 9th) and that another day could finish in fourth place ahead of 3rd of May which would then be fifth. That's why the points have question marks with them at this stage. I have added some comments about the Saturday potential while I can still edit this post on Friday 17th.