Liège-Bastogne-Liège 2013 (Sunday April 21st) **warning, contains unmasked spoilers**

dastardly00

The 99th Liège-Bastogne-Liège, Sunday April 21st, 261.5 km

Liège-Bastogne-Liège (LBL) is the oldest one-day race of the cycling calendar. It's the last of the Ardennes Spring Classics, and is the 4th Monument race of the year. Official website here.

There is a change to the route this year, with the Roche-aux-Faucons climb (1.6 km at 10%, normally the second last climb) not included due to road works (<< and we think the county councils are bad here! ). It's replaced with the Côte de Colonster (2.9km at 5.5%), 17 km from the finish. The new climb is not as tough as the one it replaces, and this may be to the advantage of riders who aren't great climbers. There is a very narrow bridge to cross before the climb starts, which could cause havoc!

Predicting the winner of LBL is always tough; it's rare that the best climbers go head-to-head with one-day classic specialists. Full start list here. Alejandro Valverde is the bookies' favourite for the race. He knows how to win this race, having been victorious in 2006 and 2008. He's in good form at the moment, as shown by his 2nd place in Amstel Gold and 7th place in Fleche Wallone. Valverde should be able to stay on the wheel of any attackers on the climbs, and he has the ability to finish fast. He also has team mates Quintana and Rui Costa to help him out.
It's the last chance saloon for Philippe Gilbert to win an Ardennes Classic this season, so the pressure is on. His form is continually improving though. And with the exclusion of the Roche-aux-Faucons climb, Gilbert has a good chance to be in the lead group after the end of the final climb. If that scenario plays out, I can't see anyone out sprinting him to the finish line.

There are so many other contenders for this race. Astana have the Vincezo Nibali, he was 2nd last year but he must be pretty tired after winning the Giro del Trentino during this week. They also have the defending champion Maxim Iglinskiy and 2012 3rd place finisher Enrico Gasparotto. Katusha have Joaquim Rodriguez, who will be in better condition than he has been compared to the first two of the Ardennes Classics, and Daniel Moreno, who won Fleche Wallone during the week. A good outside bet could be Bauke Mollema. He was 6th here last year, 10th in the Amstel and 9th in Fleche Wallone this year. Michał Kwiatkowski could take his first classic win?! 4th in the Amstel and 5th in Fleche Wallone this year.

Dan Martin should be there or there abouts. He was the fastest finisher in Fleche Wallone and would have made the podium if he wasn't boxed in at the bottom of the Mur de Huy. He was 5th in LBL last year, but the removal of the Roche-aux-Faucons climb won't help him. Nicolas Roche will be doing his best to help his team mates Alberto Contador, Roman Kreuziger and Nicki Sorensen.





Outright betting: A Valverde 6/1; P Gilbert 11/4; V Nibali 9/1; S Gerrans 12/1; D Martin 16/1; J Rodriguez 16/1; C Froome 16/1; S Henao 20/1; A Contador 25/1.

Live TV coverage on Eurosport1 from 1.15pm. Highlights later today on Eurosport2 at 10.30pm.

Inquitus

Fingers crossed for Dan and Nico! Nice preview.

Flandria

Enjoy Harmon's commentary tomorrow cos after The Tour of Turkey he is done until Le Tour. I get the impression it might be permanent...

https://twitter.com/spokesmen

Flandria

I think losing Cote de Roche aux Faucons might mean more in contention for the finale this year. The winning move was made there in the last couple of years so there might be some serious moves on La Redoute this time to try and whittle down the numbers...

MPFG

Dan Martin & Michał Kwiatkowski are very good each way bets

I think again we will be in for a surprise like with Kruesiger & Moreno, which I quite like

Sky have a very strong team ....the TdeF team bar one/two changes
Porte & Uran are not listed in the selection list above???
But I would rather if it wasn't SKY ....who win enough already

riparooo

Put a tenner on Martin at 16/1 - just hope he gets his timing/positioing right on the last hill. I had the pleasure of seeing him on the Mur on weds -and his fourth place was excellent, BUT it was like deja vu - he made exactly the same mistake in the same place in FW in 2012 as he did on weds.

BTW - given that Hesjedal is going to defens his Giro title who will be leader for Garmin for the Tour. Is it realistic that Martin might be?

MPFG

riparooo wrote: »

Put a tenner on Martin at 16/1 - just hope he gets his timing/positioing right on the last hill. I had the pleasure of seeing him on the Mur on weds -and his fourth place was excellent, BUT it was like deja vu - he made exactly the same mistake in the same place in FW in 2012 as he did on weds.

BTW - given that Hesjedal is going to defens his Giro title who will be leader for Garmin for the Tour. Is it realistic that Martin might be?

Eurosport said Talinsky was going to be leader in Tour
Also Dan Martin has said previously that he didn't yet feel strong enough to be leader, because of issue re recovery on a three week tour (although that might have changed by now).... and then there is his not so good TT....


I would want him to lead on Vuelta cos of all those sharp mountian finishes...

TheBlaaMan

Flandria wrote: »

Enjoy Harmon's commentary tomorrow cos after The Tour of Turkey he is done until Le Tour. I get the impression it might be permanent...

https://twitter.com/spokesmen

Certainly looks that way.

david harmon ‏@spokesmen
I've done all that's been asked of me by Eurosport for a decade and they have given me a wonderful career but I'm off to rediscover the love

Pity, I rather liked his commentary, esp with Kelly - though I know lots disagree.....

Morrisseeee

Heart says Dan the flyin man
Head says Moreno/Valverde (Henao/Betancur e/w bets)

/comical bet, at what stage will A Schlacker quit :pac:

IM0

TheBlaaMan wrote: »

Certainly looks that way.

david harmon ‏@spokesmen
I've done all that's been asked of me by Eurosport for a decade and they have given me a wonderful career but I'm off to rediscover the love

Pity, I rather liked his commentary, esp with Kelly - though I know lots disagree.....

he's just taking a break for 2 months from turkey to the tour, I think people are reading far too much into it, Id say he means he has worked alot and not taken breaks so he is going to change that by taking some time off to do stuff, but will be back for the tour

[/hijack]

MPFG

Re Harmon

His abrupt departure does signify either of two things......there is some pesonal or family issue or problem that needs immediate sorting ...and he will be back for the Tour

or there is some issue re his employment status ....kind of think this when he said..."I have done everything that was asked of me " or "I'm off to rediscover the love" ...

manafana

Well I have done preview as part of my blog here is the extract for my main fancies.

P.Gilbert (6/1 betway): Thoughts are that he held back mid week a bit, looked super strong in Amstel Gold and in far better shape than last year. Will have lots of support out on what are his local roads when back home in Belgium. Reclaiming his title happens a bit from the past so no doubt he could repeat his 2011 showing when the Schlecks played into his hands.

M.Kwiatkowski (33/1 various): Has said that this is the race most suited to his skills this week, and he is already proven how strong he is outside of a time trial. Like froome he has not got a full run around this circuit so may have a bit of a learning curve but he has come on well since last season. Surely a 3rd top 5 in a week is not out of the question for him.

Mollema (50/1) fancied him last week and he rode a good race. 6th here last year so unsure why he can be as big as 50s when doing so well this season. 47th in 2011, but more in 2012 form than anything else. Overall 2012 wasn’t that good to him but has 2013 on right foot so far.

this is a good parcours as attacks wont be from one place.

Darkglasses

Watching my first L-B-L, can't believe they do a big race like this on roads this bad!

dastardly00

Eh wtf.......they just showed a Europcar rider whipping his lad out to go for a píss!

Darkglasses

dastardly00 wrote: »

Eh wtf.......they just showed a Europcar rider whipping his lad out to go for a píss!

In glorious HD here on Eurosport

godtabh

dastardly00 wrote: »

Eh wtf.......they just showed a Europcar rider whipping his lad out to go for a píss!

I'm sure he has done worse!

MPFG

dastardly00 wrote: »

Eh wtf.......they just showed a Europcar rider whipping his lad out to go for a píss!

Yeah....surprised that LBL is now showing full frontals :P

Everytime Sky come to the front on mass ...I feel there should be Jaws music played !

manafana

loving the total bias of the poll by way

letape

manafana wrote: »

loving the total bias of the poll by way

Would be amazing if that was the result we got!

Darkglasses

Dan Martin is in a great position

Darkglasses

Crumbs, I think our poll might actually be right!

Inquitus

WoooHoooo!

wanderer 22

YEEESS!!

pprendeville

Best classic of the year so far

mossym

what a performance, great finish out of Dan, read it so well

DirkVoodoo

Wow, amazing finish. Played that one perfectly.

Chapeau Dan, truly world class!

Konkers

roaring at him here in the kitchen. Brilliant "calculation".

manafana

amazing and the way he did it, all credit to hesjedal putting his all in for him.

ROK ON

Absolute beaut.

Legend. Balls of steel.

Captain Havoc

manafana wrote: »

loving the total bias of the poll by way

Chapeau Dan, he was spot on with the calulashions!!!!!!

DominoDub

Congrats to Daniel "Dan" Martin ..we now have a new IRISH winner of Liège-Bastogne-Liège. To join the great Sean Kelly's two wins.

Darkglasses

Absolute legend, what a win.

Greenman

Good to see a win for Ireland.:)

dastardly00

MOTHERFCUKING YESSSSSSS!

Flandria

YES!!!

TheBlaaMan

Great tactics from Garmin and amazing work from Hesjedal in setting up a situation where Dan could win if he couldn't. What a star we have in Daniel Martin. Mega.

His boss kinda lost it on twitter

Jonathan Vaughters ‏@Vaughters 4m
Hahshahavhhaaaaaaaaaaaaaaapprhthfgdghhc!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Jonathan Vaughters ‏@Vaughters 11m
Holy **** I am shaking!!!! Come on @Ride_Argyle @Garmin @Sharp_Europe !!!!!


Worth having a nice pic up here

Carpenter

We should all pool some cash and put it on him to win a big big 1

manwithaplan

He was absolutely bouncing up the last climb. He hit the front going at a lot less that 100% and had to check up with a man up the road. I don't think he was consciously blocking - he just couldn't stop himself getting there. He then shoved on over the top to maintain the gap but eased off to let Hesjedal bury himself for the cause. Strolled up to Rodriguez, took a little breather and eased away. It was complete perfection from a rider in immense form.

MPFG

Carpenter wrote: »

We should all pool some cash and put it on him to win a big big 1

That was a big one !

titan18

Carpenter wrote: »

We should all pool some cash and put it on him to win a big big 1

He just won one

Carpenter

That I know I just watched it jumping up and down on the floor but it would make a very interesting race for us or maybe not don't shoot me

Tobyglen

Class act.

carltonleon

Absolutely superb win for Dan. The ease with which he went past Rodriguez was incredible. Hopefully the first of many wins for Dan.

MPFG

Not one to blow my own trumpet ...ok I will
Here is my post at the begining of Jan predicting Martins to win LBL, Tour of Cataluyna & Flethce Wallone (which he should have won but for a puncture)... with Giro of Lombardia to come

I don't bet ...I usually jinx people if I do...but i could be quids in now!


http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=82567728

MPFG wrote: »

Well I think you wil be a happy bunny and go to the ball in the next year or 3 ...Its not as if we are asking for the unachieveable afterall
No reason why he can't win LBL, Fletche Wallone, Lombardy and or Tour of Catalyuna to name a few ...he has come so near already ...and stage wins/king of mountains in Giro ( which might be difficult if riding soley for Ryder Hajedal) but still a real possibility..he is good , very good and still young enough
I also feel Nico will step up and start winning too in the next two years ..maybe 2.1 races to begin with but hopefully with confidence he will get the results I believe are within his capabilities....

JacksonHeightsOwn

does anybody happen to know where garmin team are staing in Liege?

my brother and a few friends are over there and want to pay them a visit

riparooo

Amazingly smart ride by Martin and garmin. Tactics and timing were perfect. Well done Dan, I'm off for a pint - be collecting my winnings from the bookies first!

MPFG

Talking of calling it...that Carlon Kirby (or whatever his name is) destroyed the race for me

He kept talking bollox and not commenting on the action !

For example Betencur attacked at one point and he just kept on talking about Nordurgh who wasn'tin the action ...why ??/
And why does he feel the need to keep talking non stop ??... abit of silence woudn't go amiss esp as most of what he says is rubbish !!
Oh how I wish for someone who just concentrates on the race esp in the final 40KM , follows the action and stops talking utter rubbish and getting on my wick !!!

del88

Get in..was this on the google box... I signed up to Eurosport player on my phone thinking I could watch it but they had Motorsport and snooker on..big win

riparooo

The win brings DM up to third in the UCI season rankings with 247 points, behind Sagan and Cancellera.

Here's hoping Garmin take a punt on him for one of the GTs as a leader/protected rider. Just needs to fine tune his TTing and he will be complete as a serious GT winning contendor. Roll on the summer.....

MPFG

Sorry about the rant.....the neighbours are probably still wondering why I was shouting SHUT UP at my TV

Meanwhile ......
Dan Martin what a talent ......Second time this year he surprised J-Rod

2013 - a great year for Irish cyling !!!

I better go and have a lie down :-) :-)

buffalo

mo'fo-ing StickyBottle is not where I expect spoilers for procycling events! /o\