Friday 12th April

rossom

One for me tomorrow in the shape of 5.00 Chepstow Shammick Boy 12/1. Write up to come but very surprised to see him such a big price.

UrbanSea

Tomorrow looks a tricky day. The possibly well handicapped Iron Chancellor catches the eye each way at 14/1 in the 4.00 Wetherby

ste2010

Here's a few I like tomorrow
Foggy patches wetherby 4.35
Asteroid belt wetherby 2.50
Ballyclough wetherby 5.10
Don pooleoni Chepstow 4-25
Whisky Yankee Chepstow 5.00
Odd job Chepstow 5.30

rossom

5.00 Chepstow

Shammick Boy 12/1

If putting a line through his last run in the Imperial Cup on nearly unraceable ground in the Imperial cup that he would have hated, Victor Dartnall's Shammick Boy looked a progressive horse and with the handicapper dropping him (in my opinion crazily) 4lb for his last run to a mark of 129 I think he has a super chance of winning this. A horse who looked to be going places when winning a couple of Novice Hurdles in early 2011, this 8 year old was very poor in the 2011-2012 for whatever reason but he has come back to form in a big way and looks to be improving despite his age with a wind operation looking to have worked wonders . Reasonably lightly raced, Shammick Boy put an average seasonal reappearance run behind him with a good 4th at Taunton at the end of December in a race won by the highly progressive Home Run in a race that has worked out very well off a mark of 120. Dropped 1lb for that run, Shammick Boy was very, very unlucky at the start of February when getting caught on the line at Wetherby over 2m to go down by a short head to Billy Twyford. Under top weight, Shammick Boy was settled in midfield and took up the running at 2 out and was about 3L clear jumping the last where he made a bad mistake and he was agonisingly reeled in late on and headed at the post. If not for that mistake, he would have definitely won but that race has worked out very well. The winner Billy Twiford was a comprehensive winner on his only start in a better race off a 7lb higher mark whilst the 3rd Renoyr ran into a Brian Ellison gamble when finishing 2nd to Yesyoucan off a 3lb higher mark on his most recent outing. Additionally, the 4th has run two really good races in defeat (including in a much better race) to solidify the form and it was a really good effort. Raised 6lb to a mark of 125, Shammick Boy gained a deserving victory at Chepstow over 2m a couple of weeks later with a very comfortable 2.5L success. Settled at the rear of the field, Shammick Boy under today's jockey Jack Doyle made a bad mistake at the 4th flight but came into the home straight travelling comfortably. Very slightly coaxed along, Shammick Boy hit the front approaching the final flight and despite making a meal of the last he only had to be gently nudged out as he extended on to score with an awful lot in hand for what was his first victory in nearly 16 months.Again, the form of that race has worked out very strongly in what was a rather taking win. The 3rd All Annalena scored by 8L on her only outing since when eased in grade off the same mark whilst the 5th home Landscape looked the most likely winner of a really decent race at Sandown when falling at the last off a 1lb lower mark and for Shammick Boy to win with such ease clearly demonstrated that he was in good form and improving.

Understandably raised 8lb to a mark of 133, Shammick Boy's last effort came in dreadful conditions at Sandown in the Imperial Cup where he never really went a yard but he wasn't given an overly hard race. Dartnall posted on his website after this run that "we have identified his problem" which seems to indicate he wasn't 100% right for that run. Regardless, I'm quite willing to put a line through it as conditions were so bad. I have no idea what the handicapper was thinking as he dropped him 4lb for that run and he is now only 4lb above the mark he was a pretty easy winner just two starts ago. However, I am not complaining and I am sure the Dartnall yard feel similarly! An interesting thing to note is that, prior to running in the Imperial Cup, Victor Dartnall had posted on his website that if he ran well at Sandown he would run in the Martin Pipe Conditional Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival and although his poor run meant he didn't take that route I think it says a lot about what they think of him. Returning to the course of his latest victory, Shammick Boy is stepped up to 2m4f and I think this could bring about further improvement in him as he has shaped like he would get further and his breeding suggests he'll get it no problem. Jack Doyle returns to the saddle having partnered him to his most recent success and the pair clearly get on very well. This is Victor Dartnall's only runner of the day at a track where he has a 19% strike rate and he has his horses absolutely flying at the moment which is tremendous to see. Of the dangers, favourite Araldur representing the in form Alan King yard never seems to run a bad race but he's sliding up the handicap for a string of excellent effort and I feel Shammick Boy looks a better handicapped horse. I am quite wary of the danger of Paul Nicholls handicapped debutant Whisky Yankee who has only had 2 starts over hurdles and could be anything but I'm far happier to stick with a horse with proven form in handicaps. If ignoring his last run, Shammick Boy looked to be an upwardly mobile sort and with the handicappers decision to drop his rating he is now only 4lb above the comfortable win he recorded at the course just two starts ago and based on the ease of that success I'd be very surprised if he isn't back on a winnable mark. At a track where course form is very important, I'm pleased to see Shammick Boy returned to a venue where he clearly goes well at and even if the overnight rain arrives I have no issues with the conditions. With Victor Dartnall's horses flying at present, if the Devon based trainer has gotten this 8 year old back on track then I think he is going to take an awful lot of beating and 12/1 is a much bigger price than I was expecting to see.

ste2010

Ronald O'Leary sending deadly sting to the bumper in the last at wetherby.
33% strike rate in bumpers..either he thinks it has a strong hand to play or else he's in wetherby for some other reason and decided to bring an
Unraced horse along :-)

carmanard

Haven't been online since early yesterday, was going to put up Shammick Boy as a tip for today but now I'm glad Rossom beat me to it, definitely going to scoot in now!!! Putting up an e/w patent, all at Chepstow: Shammick Boy (of course), Rockchasebullett in the first (his P2P trainer always reckoned he was going to be a stone better of a horse on good or better ground, Fergal O'Brien had a 33/1 winner of a maiden hurdle recently, Manballandall, who finished only a couple of lengths in front of Rockchasebullett in a point-to-point) and taking a flyer on Dundee in the 2.40 given that King's horses seem to be finally starting to show decent form of late... Can't check oddschecker/betfair as the barons in work have installed new net-nanny software that blocks anything even vaguely useful (though apparently boards is ok for some strange reason!!) but I'd be hoping to get in and around 10/1 for all 3 of them.....

redzerdrog

sting60 wrote: »

8.45 Dundalk Nap was told this will win.

???

UrbanSea

sting60 wrote: »

8.45 Dundalk Nap was told this will win.

I heard this is a beast beating on the gallops

Slattsy

sting60 wrote: »

8.45 Dundalk Nap was told this will win.

This is the horse i've been waiting for. They call it Pegasus at home :pac:

byronbay2

sting60 wrote: »

8.45 Dundalk Nap was told this will win.

Was told what will win???

premierstone

Slattsy wrote: »

This is the horse i've been waiting for. They call it Pegasus at home :pac:

I heard it was on the gallops in Newmarket last week and left everything in its wake

Johner

I can't find a horse called Nap, where is it????? Come on ffs I have 20 beans waiting for this one.

Slattsy

premierstone wrote: »

I heard it was on the gallops in Newmarket last week and left everything in its wake

I heard it was Sha Tin myself.

Colonel Sanders

rossom wrote: »

One for me tomorrow in the shape of 5.00 Chepstow Shammick Boy 12/1. Write up to come but very surprised to see him such a big price.

A few non runners in this but money for him even allowing for that

carmanard

That horse running at dundalk worked like a dream alright, Daggermouth they call him. I saw daggermouth once... sure... it was dark. and raining. and my glasses were at lens crafters... and my eyes were sore and bloodshot from the chlorine from when i went swimming earlier that day.. BUT I SAW THAT HORSE!!

*I paraphrase*

Gringo180

Khelino in the 8.45 lads.

rossom

I think I'm looking at a 50p Rule 4 on Shammick Boy. Gone in again at 7s as Whiskey Yankee was the horse I feared most and he's not been pulled.

SRFC

A wealth warning for anyone punting Noseda's odds on shot in the last at Lingfield,it may well win but i'll tell you this for nothing,You'll be broke backing this mans horses he cant train ivy up a wall im laying this.

langer91

rossom wrote: »

I think I'm looking at a 50p Rule 4 on Shammick Boy. Gone in again at 7s as Whiskey Yankee was the horse I feared most and he's not been pulled.

hes a non runner now!

djone349

langer91 wrote: »

hes a non runner now!

u sure? still getting odds for it on william hill

rossom

langer91 wrote: »

hes a non runner now!

Every bookie still has him priced up?

UrbanSea

He's referring to that other horse I take it

rossom

Ah now I get it. I did say that he was pulled though.

premierstone

rossom wrote: »

Ah now I get it. I did say that he was pulled though.

You actually said he has not been pulled, a typo which led to all the confusion

rossom

premierstone wrote: »

You actually said he has not been pulled, a typo which led to all the confusion

Now I see my mistake. That was supposed to say now as opposed to not! Woops!

Mocha Joe

I backed it at 7s earlier. What will the 50p rule 4 change the price to? I'm not sure how that works.

rossom

Mocha Joe wrote: »

I backed it at 7s earlier. What will the 50p rule 4 change the price to? I'm not sure how that works.

If you backed him after 9.30 this morning then you'll get paid out at 7s.

Colonel Sanders

Big punt on Radmore's Revenge here

Gringo180

Was it just me or was that a very strange ride from Jack Doyle? Seemed to be puling the head back on the horse instead of riding him out?

rossom

I think it was odd all around. I don't think he stayed 2m4f in the ground though either. He'll be back to winning again soon. I have no doubt about that.

Gringo180

rossom wrote: »

I think it was odd all around. I don't think he stayed 2m4f in the ground though either. He'll be back to winning again soon. I have no doubt about that.

He was travelling strongly before jumping the last and while the others were at it Doyle still didnt go at the horse fully.

Colonel Sanders

I'd no bet so not pocket talking

Huge drift at the off & what I'll call a "suspicious" ride. Although to counter that the horse didn't look straight forward.

SRFC

Seen on Twitter betfair eddie ahern got a ban,anyone know why?


Mate text me saying he was up to his tricks on the aw again today finding trouble any one see it?

MonkstownHoop

SRFC wrote: »

Seen on Twitter betfair eddie ahern got a ban,anyone know why?


Mate text me saying he was up to his tricks on the aw again today finding trouble any one see it?

terrible ride and he looked like he stopped the horse from even finishing 2nd

Gringo180

Tefflaah just went from 8/1 straight to 7/2 in the betting in last at Lingfield :eek:

SRFC

MonkstownHoop wrote: »

terrible ride and he looked like he stopped the horse from even finishing 2nd

He is rancid,I gave up backing him a long time ago ill reserve judgement untill I see the races today but id well believe he was up to his usual antics.

Johner

He didn't stop the horse he got snatched up and had no where to go, but before that he pushed/bumped another horse out of his way to make room for himself. Deserved ban.

SRFC

SRFC wrote: »

A wealth warning for anyone punting Noseda's odds on shot in the last at Lingfield,it may well win but i'll tell you this for nothing,You'll be broke backing this mans horses he cant train ivy up a wall im laying this.

Another hot pot of noseda's beaten on the all weather 4/6,when will the punters ever learn :cool:

hawkeyethenoo

so you layed a horse that you said it may well win. :rolleyes:

SRFC

hawkeyethenoo wrote: »

so you layed a horse that you said it may well win. :rolleyes:

read the last part of the sentence please.

Johner

5/4 now North Dakota.

Howjoe1

Gringo180 wrote: »

Khelino in the 8.45 lads.

tip or fancy?

jimjamcos

Drift on North Dakota spoke volumes there.

Gringo180

Howjoe1 wrote: »

tip or fancy?

Fancy. 10/1 now, won off this mark a good few starts back at 14/1 I reckon if back to form will win.

Gringo180

jimjamcos wrote: »

Drift on North Dakota spoke volumes there.

That couldn't of been the same horse that worked alongside Camelot.

Howjoe1

Gringo180 wrote: »

Fancy. 10/1 now, won off this mark a good few starts back at 14/1 I reckon if back to form will win.

Cheers.

I'm giving Home secretary ew in the next a last chance

jimjamcos

Gringo180 wrote: »

That couldn't of been the same horse that worked alongside Camelot.

Didn't see the race but yea, that's exactly what I'm thinking. He was obviously just out for the spin but even so, if it's the same horse as everyone thought they seen at The Curragh he really should be good enough to win that.

UrbanSea

Howjoe1 wrote: »

Cheers.

I'm giving Home secretary ew in the next a last chance

Fancied him the last day. He is due a win soon at a price

Howjoe1

UrbanSea wrote: »

Fancied him the last day. He is due a win soon at a price

3rd at 10/1. will settle for that. thought for a brief moment he was going to get up.

SRFC

jimjamcos wrote: »

Didn't see the race but yea, that's exactly what I'm thinking. He was obviously just out for the spin but even so, if it's the same horse as everyone thought they seen at The Curragh he really should be good enough to win that.

It was 100% North Dakota working with Camelot,We dont know the weights carried that day Camelot was probably giving him 2 stone and was more than likely half fit,I backed him tonight doubt he's up too much that was a poor maiden aswell.

Johner

I took out a loan from the credit union and bank. Anyone got a spare score?