Early Warning of Irish Depositor Confiscation And Restricted Access

Scofflaw

Amberman wrote: »

Not true according the ECB stats...check it out for yourself. Ireland has lost close to 60% of the smart money, other countries have lost 85%+, some have lost a third or less, and the timing of the withdrawals differs quite a bit from country to country.

Click the link above and change the country and then look at the charts for direct comparisons between countries. You'll quickly see that there isn't any across the board uniformity in scale or timing of withdrawals.

Nope. Based on that data, here's Greece, Cyprus, Ireland, and Portugal, same timescale, with amounts referenced to 2010 as an index value:



The downslopes are almost identical there. The only odd thing about Cyprus is that spike in deposits, but given it's immediately preceded by a big drop in Greek deposits, it's not hard to work out what's happening there.

cordially,
Scofflaw

skimpydoo

I had created this thread last night in after hours and it was closed after a mod stated "I'm locking this because there's political and financial forums on Boards that are better suited for this thread, and it's only going to go round in the same circles of the same people trying to shout down each other."

Hopefully it can remain open here and we can get some meaningful discussion.

Max Keiser has something that won't be mentioned by the Irish media. Be very afraid. At 12:45 in the video we get shocking news on AIB.

Amberman

Scofflaw wrote: »

Nope. Based on that data, here's Greece, Cyprus, Ireland, and Portugal, same timescale, with amounts referenced to 2010 as an index value:



The downslopes are almost identical there. The only odd thing about Cyprus is that spike in deposits, but given it's immediately preceded by a big drop in Greek deposits, it's not hard to work out what's happening there.

cordially,
Scofflaw

What's your source for that? Why would the ECBs figures be wrong in your opinion?

Scofflaw

Amberman wrote: »

What's your source for that? Why would the ECBs figures be wrong in your opinion?

They are the source.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Amberman

Ah...lol, bit of selection bias in your figures. Go through the link I showed, check non bailout countries, and you'll get a very different picture.

Scofflaw

Amberman wrote: »

Ah...lol, bit of selection bias in your figures. Go through the link I showed, check non bailout countries, and you'll get a very different picture.

Um, well, yes. That's because what we're discussing is a claim that the core banks were warned about the Cypriot bail-in in advance, and withdrew their money from Cypriot banks on foot of that warning. You remember that, in your OP, the subject of the thread?

Thus a graph showing the movement of eurozone bank money out of Cyprus is exactly the same as the movement out of all bailout countries, showing that there's nothing special about the Cypriot case.

Including non-bailout countries would be rather more than meaningless, because nobody is claiming that they're undergoing the same process, and showing that Cyprus is undergoing something they're not does not - cannot - prove that Cyprus is a special case amongst the bailout countries, as was claimed.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Amberman

All well and good, except for the fact that this thread was made positing an indicator of future events, and the big withdrawals happened BEFORE the confiscation...therefore your point is, um, well, pointless as an indicator of future events, because what were looking for is a sudden surge in Eurozone MFI withdrawals to see where the hammer of Eurocrat confiscation falls next.

Scofflaw

Amberman wrote: »

All well and good, except for the fact that this thread was made positing an indicator of future events, and the big withdrawals happened BEFORE the confiscation...therefore your point is, um, well, pointless as an indicator of future events, because what were looking for is a sudden surge in Eurozone MFI withdrawals to see where the hammer of Eurocrat confiscation falls next.

And what has been effectively demonstrated is that the proposed indicator is useless - which s hardly surprising, given the irrelevant "evidence" and poor logic originally put forward to support it. That doesn't mean you can't use it if you like, but entrails or the flight of birds might be more reliable omens.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Amberman

Sharp sell off begins in 2008, losing @30% of deposits in Germany



Sharp sell off begins in 2008, losing @40% of deposits in Italy



Sharp sell off begins in 2009, losing @65% of deposits in Ireland



Sharp sell off begins in 2010, losing @35% of deposits in Spain...so the timing and the scale of the smart money depositor flight differs quite substantially.

Amberman

Scofflaw wrote: »

And what has been effectively demonstrated is that the proposed indicator is useless - which s hardly surprising, given the irrelevant "evidence" and poor logic originally put forward to support it. That doesn't mean you can't use it if you like, but entrails or the flight of birds might be more reliable omens.

cordially,
Scofflaw

So there is no smart money in the EZ banking system? Think that if you like. It's still a free country.

Hootanany

Where would one put their smart money please.

Sponge Bob

Hootanany wrote: »

Where would one put their smart money please.

Listining to the constant ravings of the Bitcoin pimpers (especially in the Cyprus thread in recent weeks) one might have thought Bitcoin had Bitcoin not shown itself to be the Global Bubble Burst of the month in April 2013.

I'd plan on a quick entry and exit for the dead cat bounce or else see if the next ramp us is Ripple instead of Bitcoin

But Bitcoin has given us the worlds worst currency crash all on its own and only since the mad ramping up to last month.

Naturally most of the loudest rampers in this forum got caught rotten...the smart money lets the less smart money do the ramping for it.

Hmmm where will the next bubble be, Cheese????? Hang on a sec............

Cody Pomeray

Amberman if you want to look at where depositors are next likely to be hit, you have to look at the vulnerability of the banking sector, and you have to look at the structure of that banking sector's liabilities.

The only banks in the Eurozone whose non-official aspect of their balance sheets are made of depositor funding are the Greek and Cyrpiot banks.

All other Eurozone banking systems have adequate marketable liability 'cushions' which 'worst case scenario' eventualities would see being hit before even large depositors were hit. This hierarchy is the general template according to the chairman of the Eurogroup and the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee.

Scofflaw

Amberman wrote: »

So there is no smart money in the EZ banking system? Think that if you like. It's still a free country.

Heh, no. I'm not claiming there's no "smart money" in the eurozone banking system, although it appears that the definition of "smart money" is simply money that has moved out of some countries' banks, without worrying about details such as whether that was actually a smart move outside of Laiki.

I'm not sure what you're trying to prove at this stage, though - that eurozone deposit flight has been a feature for almost everyone, but those countries whose banks have come closest to collapse have suffered from it worst?

Is that something that in some way is supposed to be surprising, though?

cordially,
Scofflaw