Grand National/ Megatron Day

ste2010

Just said I'd post this in the event there are a major shuffle in the prices.

African gold 10-1 on bet365 and
celestial halo at 7-1 look overpriced for the Liverpool hurdle.
In the world hurdle it looked like it was going to be celestial halos until he hit the last hurdle.
African gold put in a nice run to come second to at fishers cross. Given what we seen of the new one and his run today its viable that at fishers cross could also be a major superstar in the making also given he put nearly a length between them.
With that in mind African gold should have a live chance here given he gave at fishers cross a race at Cheltenham.
He's up against some old horses who had tough races but I think 10/1 and each way bet is not something you should turn your nose up to

I strongly fancy up and go in the first also...

mountai

Three horses for me tomorrow

1/ Solwhit
2/ Solwhit
3/ Solwhit

TheMilkyPirate

mountai wrote: »

Three horses for me tomorrow

1/ Solwhit
2/ Solwhit
3/ Solwhit

Lol, I'd agree though he looks a good bet, Hopefully get a bit bigger then the 2/1 available now tomorrow.

Also fancy Overturn strongly. Join together in the national and On his own and a small e/w on Auroras encore.

Not sure what else yet.

jimjamcos

baraca wrote: »

Lol, I'd agree though he looks a good bet, Hopefully get a bit bigger then the 2/1 available now tomorrow.

Also fancy Overturn strongly. Join together in the national and On his own and a small e/w on Auroras encore.

Not sure what else yet.

Can see Solwhit being bigger tomorrow(already some 5/2 about) as money comes for African Gold. Like Overturn too.

UrbanSea

Expect some real surprises at Navan tomorrow, some horses have dropped a huge amount running on heavy ground. Finally some decent ground in Ireland

Hulk Hands

Baily Green is overpriced at 3's, there's no reason why he shouldn't be favourite. He has the best form and the quick ground will suit help him just as much or more than anyone else. I'm a huge Overturn fan but no way he should be shorter than BG here.

I took the 12's on African Gold, I think the race is there for the taking and i'm hoping the World Hurdle was a poor renewal. Again, good ground could be the making of him. Form being franked massively today also helps.

UrbanSea

Urban's picks to give you big dicks

Paintball 5.10 Aintree 33/1

It’s clearly a wide open race when it’s 7/1 the field and there are 22 runners, but think Charlie Longsdon’s six year old could run a big race tomorrow at some very nice each way odds with the first four home being paid. An okay handicapper on the flat for William Muir, Paintball won twice in that sphere, a seven furlong Southwell maiden as well as a 10 furlong handicap around Doncaster on good-soft ground back in March 2010 off a mark of 71 from 15 attempts on that level, placing a further six times (best runs on good ground).

Went hurdling at the start of 2011 and seemed to make a good transition, finishing runner up first time out to the smart Tony Star before breaking his duck third time out at Ludlow over 2 miles quite easily, beating a duel subsequent winner by 12 lengths. Ran at the Festival that year in the Fred Winter handicap hurdle off a mark of 123 and ran quite well, holding every chance before weakening into ninth. Did get a win next time out though again at Cheltenham over an extended two miles on good ground in a race that threw up a few winners since.

That win came in April 2011, and he was slightly disappointing in his first three runs of the following season, his best result being a 9 length third behind Pateese at Sandown, but he put those runs behind him when running the best race of his career to date, travelling strongly and winning by a really good 4 ½ lengths off a mark of 128 in the Imperial Cup at Sandown on good ground in March 2012 in what is one of the most competitive handicaps of the season (had a breathing op before the run).

The horse has had five starts since that, and hasn’t looked at all like the same horse, going off a well fancied 9/2 chance in a good handicap at this meeting last year off his revised mark of 139, but he lost all chance early on when clipping heels and never got involved after that, before finishing mid division at Haydock last May, which may have been one run too many for that season given that he looked a tired horse that day.

Even so, he has run some really poor races this year, tailing off first time out at Fontwell over 2 ½ on soft ground (looked a non stayer) and the same story could be said of his run last time out at Taunton, though he did run poorly in between at Ascot over 2 miles off a mark of 136 back in November. This horse has to be taken with a bit caution given how he has ran in those races, but he really loves good ground and he may well be a revived horse following a few months off since last November.

He’s dropped to a very tempting mark of 129 and talented claimer Kielan Woods takes off another three pounds, meaning he’s effectively racing off a mark of 126 with a riding weight of 10-7. I’m going to take my chance and hope he’s back to his best and if he is he should run a big race tomorrow, in what is a wide open contest and 33/1 is massive with Victor Chandler

Monsieur Chevalier 3.45 Lingfield 5/1

This is another competitive looking handicap but think this horse has a win in him sometime soon and hopefully it will be tomorrow. He was a top class 2 year old back in 2009 when trained by Richard Hannon and at one stage looked like he could be destined for the very top, winning six of his first 7 races at two, including 2 conditions races, a Listed race, a Group 3, a valuable Newmarket Sales race all over five furlongs, as well as finishing a good third in the Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes behind Showcasing at York, before rounding off his two year old career when eighth in the Prix de l’Abbaye at Longchamp on Arc day, which in hindsight was a silly race to send a two year old to.


Nonetheless, the horse had his problems since then, including a fractured pelvic bone, and missed the entire 2010 season and didn’t make his return to racing until May 2011, making a promising comeback when forth behind the top class sprinter Bated Breath. He was highly tried for the remainder of that season, and showed he still had retained plenty of ability when an excellent second to Society Rock (won last year’s Gr.1 Haydock Sprint Cup) in that year’s Gr.1 Golden Jubilee Stakes over 6 furlongs at Royal Ascot, before a down the field run in that year’s July Cup. Ran okay next time out in a Newmarket Listed race, before finally getting his head back in front on his last run of the season, showing a really good attitude to land a 6 furlong Listed race at Goodwood, looking beaten before running on to just deny Dessert Poppy on the line, being matched at a high of 630 in running.

Showed just how much of a brittle horse he was after that however, and was off for a full year before he raced again for his new stable of P J O’Gorman over five furlongs at Doncaster, but was friendless in the market before running really poorly, with a similar story next time out over 7 furlongs on soft ground at Doncaster when beaten about 3 miles behind Captain Ramius.

Was switched to handicaps after this for the first time in his career, and ran promisingly around here over a mile in November when 40/1 off a mark of 100, beaten three lengths into seventh in what was quite a good race (winner won twice since, including a Listed race, third, eighth and ninth all won since). His next run saw him finish behind Solar Deity, who won the race before, yet again, though he didn’t run great that day, beaten four lengths into ninth having been slowly away and never getting involved. Showed his better form last time over this distance at Wolverhampton in a Listed race, catching the eye when coming home really strongly from a wide draw.

Dropped two pounds for that to a mark of 94 and has a good draw, hopefully he can return to his best form and make a mockery of this mark. Price is skimpy enough but seems an each way bet to nothing at 5/1.

MoscowFlyer

Up and Go should be odds on tomorrow. 2/1 is sooooooo tasty!

Goldcupfav

All over Purple Bay at 7/1 in the bumper at Aintree..

mailburner

MoscowFlyer wrote: »

Up and Go should be odds on tomorrow. 2/1 is sooooooo tasty!

yep
my idea of a cert tomorrow
this horse is going places

Johner

I like Up and Go as well but its a fair price. No way should it be odds on.

UrbanSea

Thought it was a bit skinny myself but it's a terrible turnout for a Grade 2. Dodging Bullets the obvious danger

Edit actually at the ratings it's a shocking price. A stone to find with Dodging Bullets off levels and he's 2/1 v 11/4.

MoscowFlyer

He won't be 2/1 tomorrow. I'd say he will go off nearer 6/4.

Johner

MoscowFlyer wrote: »

He won't be 2/1 tomorrow. I'd say he will go off nearer 6/4.

6/4 would be a shocking price. The horse has potential hasn't done anything to justify a price like that. His only other start in this company he fell when he was well beaten. It's not a strong race but there is some decent horses in it like Dodging Bullets, Eduard and Utopie Des Bordes.

Johner

Seabass is fav in a few places. Being backed like last year. I'm sure all his mates will be roaring him home.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J_y_tQMtnYo

rossom

One for me so far for tomorrow in the shape of 2.30 Chepstow The Gossmoor Yank 33/1. It's only a tentative one but write up to come.

TheMilkyPirate

Seabass was a blatant non stayer last year in my eyes, More of the same again this year.

jimjamcos

Poor first 2 days...onwards and upwards ta huck!!

1.45: Up and Go @ 2/1 Really like this horse. Been saved for tomorrow. Should relish better ground and just don't like Dodging Bullets or the others. Poor race.

2.15: Overturn @ 9/4 Was never going on tacky Cheltenham ground at Cheltenham, blundered and game over. I'm willing to keep faith with him, though, as he rarely runs poorly two days in a row. Simonsig under-performed badly in Arkle so while I like Baily Green, I'm not giving too much importance to the form of the Arkle as it was a mess of a race IMO. Can't be having Alderwood until he proves himself better than a handicapper.

2.50: African Gold @ 9/1 Nap Backed this horse at big price for Albert Bartlett. Travelled like a good horse on ground too soft against a very good horse in AFC. African Gold comfortably beat Henderson's Queen-owned Close Touch a couple of runs back who subsequently hacked up at Sandown and looked an exciting horse. Geraghty gave their horse as a tip at Cafe En Seine preview night so Seven barrows obviously rate their animal. African Gold will be much better for good ground tomorrow and the fact that Twiston Davis has stepped him out of novice company shows how highly they rate him: “I’ll have surprised a few people by putting this fellow in the three-mile Grade 1 Liverpool Hurdle on Saturday and I’ll be having a very good look at the race because it might be winnable. He’s got the Sefton Novices’ Hurdle option on Friday but we think he’s improving fast and is very good. He was outstayed on soft at Cheltenham in the Albert Bartlett and I know this is a much better horse on good ground.”

Obviously Solwhit and Smad Place have to be respected but didn't look the hottest World Hurdle to me and God only knows what Grands Crus turns up so I'm hoping the progressive African Gold, with his optimum conditions, will prove as good as his runs so far have suggested.

4.15: Have backed Soll antepost at 66/1 and 50/1. A fine lepper but not sure how he'll cope with quicker ground than he's used to. Should like Aintree's fences. Will also be having a flutter on Chicago Grey @ 14/1...been blatantly plotted for this all season. Hopefully Carberry rides and eases him around like a boss!! Will know after first few whether he has a chance or not. No mistakes and I see him going well. Third and final dart will be Quel Esprit @ 50/1...Irish Hennessy winner (know it was a poor one) and a big horse built to carry weight. Just think he's overpriced given who trains him and the fact that he always seemed to be highly thought of without delivering much.

5.45: Sgt Reckless @ 12/1 There were rumours aplenty that this horse was working better than decent flat horses at Channons yard pre-Cheltenham. Didn't match the hype at Cheltenham but the fact that Channon has him out again on a quicker track that should suit better makes me think he's worth another chance at a price. Small bet.

admiralofthefleet

im going with the same horse i went with when he won - Ballabrigs

ill be doing a small e/w on major malarky as well

tonic wine

2:15 Alderwood 9/4
Won a grade 1 over hurdles after winning the county at cheltenham. Hopefully he can repeat this form over fences.

2:50 Solwhit 5/2
Impressive winning the world hurdle. Course form and will handle the good ground.

3:25 Cantlow 13/2
Had him flaged up for what ever handicap he entered at cheltenham. Also has course form finishing 2nd here over 3 miles.

4:15 Chicago Grey 12/1
Won the 4 miler at cheltenham in 2011, possibly the best handicapped horse in the race, 8lbs lower then is Irish mark. Hopefully Paul carberry is fit to ride.

5:10 Shotavodka 7/1
Has raced just 4 times over hurdles, winning his last 3. Looks like he has plenty scope to progress further.

Liverpool
The riskiest part of a megaton.

SRFC

Baily Green has a wind problem,he wont be winning tomorrow alderwood is a handicap chaser overturn will jump out in front and should win if cheltenham didnt take too much out of him,Sire De Grugy has a decent chance beat the handicap plot horse Cantlow and also gave Captain Conan a race at Cheltenham before that with Third Intention way back in 3rd,no 3 places ew so win bet will have to do maybe even bet w/o overturn.

ste2010

SRFC wrote: »

Baily Green has a wind problem,he wont be winning tomorrow alderwood is a handicap chaser overturn will jump out in front and should win if cheltenham didnt take too much out of him,Sire De Grugy has a decent chance beat the handicap plot horse Cantlow and also gave Captain Conan a race at Cheltenham before that with Third Intention way back in 3rd,no 3 places ew so win bet will have to do maybe even bet w/o overturn.

Is the wind problem publicized somewhere or is this something you heard from someone? Did he have the problems since Cheltenham or before?

jimjamcos

SRFC wrote: »

Baily Green has a wind problem,he wont be winning tomorrow alderwood is a handicap chaser overturn will jump out in front and should win if cheltenham didnt take too much out of him,Sire De Grugy has a decent chance beat the handicap plot horse Cantlow and also gave Captain Conan a race at Cheltenham before that with Third Intention way back in 3rd,no 3 places ew so win bet will have to do maybe even bet w/o overturn.

where you hear that? Surely he doesn't run if that's the case?

Imhof Tank

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Baily Green is overpriced at 3's, there's no reason why he shouldn't be favourite. He has the best form and the quick ground will suit help him just as much or more than anyone else. I'm a huge Overturn fan but no way he should be shorter than BG here.
.

Agree.

Mouse stable in terrific form as well.

Edit - just seeing the talk of the wind prob now - source??

tonic wine

Tistory being back from 6/1 into 5/2 for the bumper tomorrow.

Reports have said his work at home has being very good up against some very smart stablemates.

Johner

I really liked Tistory but at 5/2 its a bit short.

SRFC

ste2010 wrote: »

Is the wind problem publicized somewhere or is this something you heard from someone? Did he have the problems since Cheltenham or before?

I heard casey told them to get a wind op and leave it for the season after the arkle,can see him improving next season apparantly he's going up in trip aswell.

Moon Dice

MoscowFlyer wrote: »

Up and Go should be odds on tomorrow. 2/1 is sooooooo tasty!

Im all over this. Biggest bet ever

ste2010

SRFC wrote: »

I heard casey told them to get a wind op and leave it for the season after the arkle,can see him improving next season apparantly he's going up in trip aswell.

So he had issues with wind during the arkle. Jesus that was some performance if that was the case. Would you be worried about him tomorrow given performance he displayed in the arkle with the problems?

Inspector Coptoor

Singles
Up and Go
Alderwod
Solwhit

All three of these in a treble aswell.

African Gold e/w
Joncol, Imperial Commander and Rare Bob e/w in the National

the groutch

1:45 Aintree - Dodging Bullets
2:50 Aintree - Celestial Halo
3:25 Aintree - Cantlow
1:35 Newcastle - Greenhead High (Adrian Nicholls has gone all the way up to Newcastle just to ride this).

Still in two minds over whether to include Baily Green.

and my obligatory pick for The National, even though I won't actually back anything in that bookies' benefit is Ninetieth Minute.

bohsman

Up and Go
Overturn
Solwhit
Cantlow

very small yankee, big single on Solwhit and smaller singles on the others.

tonic wine

Having a small ew double on:

3:25 Mac Aeda 14/1
Caught my eye thrown in at the bottom of the weights. Didn't stay last time, but now back down to 3m 1f, just 1lb above his last winning mark.

5:10 Cry Of Freedom 12/1
Only has 7 runs over hurdles, looks to be well treated, and will improve for the better ground.

Inspector Coptoor wrote: »

Singles
Up and Go
Alderwod
Solwhit

All three of these in a treble aswell.

I have done the same as above, as well as a four fold with tistory for the buzz.
100/1 :d

Skippy44

Russian War has winning form at the festival over hurdles on decent ground. Has to go close in the 325 at 12s or 14s imo.

rossom

Skippy44 wrote: »

Russian War has winning form at the festival over hurdles on decent ground. Has to go close in the 325 at 12s or 14s imo.

Love the horse as I made a fortune on him back in 2011 at Aintree but he's a woeful price at 12s! Could easily be well handicapped off 131 but he has never convinced over fences and I'd want him at least double that price before I considered backing him. Would absolutely love if he did win and definitely has the talent to but I think he is very underpriced.

rossom

2.30 Chepstow

The Gossmoor Yank 33/1

A very risky selection but if the application of first time blinkers, return to a sounder surface, the significant drop in grade, career low mark and return to a course which he goes well at reinvigorate this wayward 10 year old then I'm hoping he can turn back time and land this pretty poor contest. Now with Liam Corcoran, The Gossmoor Yank used to be a pretty useful animal when trained with Paul Nicholls over hurdles as he reached a peak rating of 131. Lightly raced for his age, The Gossmoor Yank was off the track for 25 months before running a belter in a handicap hurdle for Nicholls back in November 2011 but that was as good as it got for this son of Shernazar as he was disappointing in his last 2 starts for his former trainer (first starts over fences) and finished his career with the former champion trainer when tailed off in handicap chase off a mark of 132 in January 2012. He joined Liam Corcoran in April of that year and was disappointing on stable debut when pulled up in a handicap hurdle last May and has been confined to chasing ever since. Starting off his chasing career with Corcoran in a Beginners Chase back in November officially rated 124, he has had 4 starts over the larger obstacles for current connections which has subsequently seen him fall to a career low mark of 98. For the most part, he has seemed a shell of his former self but he definitely shaped as if he still held some ability two starts ago at Plumpton before falling 4 out. In a Amateur Riders contest at the end of February off a mark of 107, The Gossmoor Yank sported first time cheekpieces under Jo Buck and was still well in contention when taking a shuddering fall at the 4th last. Whether he would have made the frame or not is a complete mystery but he certainly showed glimpses that he has a win left in him. Another two positives to take from that run are that the application of a first time aid and the return to some semblance of a decent surface (good to soft) seemed to be working and can only increase my optimism for tomorrow.

His final start came when tailed off in testing conditions at Kempton last month but the handicapper has seen fit to drop him 9lb to 98 as he was well out the rear of the field for the entire contest. Tomorrow he is dropped into a really poor 0-100 handicap with first time blinkers applied and if he is ever going to win a race again then surely it has to be this one. I'm definitely pleased to see him return to Chepstow as it seemed a course he really enjoyed over hurdles in his time with Nicholls and he had an excellent record of 1232 at the unique undulating course(was well beaten on his chasing debut at the course but that was a very, very hot race). Although a winner on soft, there is no doubt in my mind that he's much better on a sound surface and I think he'll really appreciate the return to good ground tomorrow. Donal Fahy, who was on board for the first time LTO, takes the ride and he's riding well at the moment. Liam Corcoran hasn't really had the best time of things for the past 18 months or so and is popping in the odd winner but is hardly thriving and that's obviously a concern. Given that he seemed revitalised in first time cheekpieces, I'm very happy to see blinkers reached for for the first time and I'm certainly hoping their application can spark him back into life. Based on his old form, he should really have more than enough ability to win off 98 in a Grade this low but barring one apparent return to some sort of form at Plumpton a couple of starts ago he has a profile largely consistent with a regressive horse and is clearly a very risky selection. However, I'm prepared to give him this chance as he won't have anything in his favour as much as this again and I certainly feel 33/1 is a price that more than incorporates that risk. Although this selection is definitely posted in hope rather than expectation, if he's ever going to win again then surely it has to be this race and if anyone is willing to take a calculated risk then hopefully they are rewarded at a very nice price.

cup of tea

1st race up and go 2/1
2nd race no bet
3rd race
Solwhit 5/2 single,medium stake.african gold 10/1 e/w
4th
cantlow 6/1
Grand n....chic grey 12/1e/w imper comm 16/1 e/w rainbow catcher 100/1 e/w
6th
No bet
7th
No bet

MoscowFlyer

Tres Coronas is an interesting runner in the 3.15 @ Newcastle. C&D winner and that day was on a mark of 84 while today he goes off 76. Obv worry is that it's his first outing of the season so he would need to be tuned up and there really isn't anything in his past that suggests he goes well fresh.

Im actually talking myself out of it lol, ah il prob have a few quid on anyway.

Theborderfox81

Major word for Tistory in the bumper. Meant to be a machine & highly regarded. Works with Simonsig & Grandouet at home. Had a set back earlier in the year but is fine now. Was meant to be a novice hurdler this year and their leading hope in that division which looks good now considering what My Tent has done since.

Stable are all over him. I got 6/1 on B365 last night. Sent pm to a few of ye here last night so I hope ye got bigger prices.

longshotvalue

Aintree 3:25

Planet of Sound has been given a fair chance here by the handicapper. He has come down in the weight after runs on unsuitable soft ground. He hasn’t had a lot of races in the last 18months but he has everything in his favour here and could well be ready to run here. 12/1 looks a decent price.

1 Point win 12/1 Various

Colonel Sanders

Mark Howard had Tistory in his 40 to follow but the horse obviously had problems

Interestingly he didn't even mention it in his Aintree update

longshotvalue

Aintree 5:10

Paintball has done basically nothing since his very good win in the Imperial Cup last year, but he is in here after a break of a lower mark on good ground and I really fancy that he could get back to form today. He won that imperial cup after a decent break and with very similar circumstances here all round 25/1 could well be decent value.

1 Point EW 25/1 Various

longshotvalue

Aintree 1:45

I fancied Dodging Bullets at the festival and he was poor there after bleeding. Today’s conditions look sure to suit him in a lower class race. His main competition Up & Go has been performing on Soft Ground and this race will be a completely different proposition. If my selection is back to form here 3/1 looks huge.

2 Points win 3/1 Various

SRFC

Theborderfox81 wrote: »

Major word for Tistory in the bumper. Meant to be a machine & highly regarded. Works with Simonsig & Grandouet at home. Had a set back earlier in the year but is fine now. Was meant to be a novice hurdler this year and their leading hope in that division which looks good now considering what My Tent has done since.

Stable are all over him. I got 6/1 on B365 last night. Sent pm to a few of ye here last night so I hope ye got bigger prices.

Wont be in the first 3 woeful price.

starskey77

1.45 up and go
2.15 alderwood
2.50 smad place
3.25 opening batsman
4.15 on his own
5.15 shotavodka
5.45 pure science

mailburner

up and go
baily green
solwhit
on his own

on his own now 11s
thats a big price

Hulk Hands

One more for me to go with Baily Green and African Gold. I like Russian War e/w in the 3.25. Put away for this, has got his ground and has track form. If he still has the ability of a couple of years ago, he'll go close here.

mdwexford

Grands Crus is a cracking ew bet.

Been waiting for him to go back over hurdles for ages, if he retains his ability from his hurdling days he will carry this lot.

Hopefully he wont go out like a light the way he has been over fences of late.

The Backwards Man

I've watched the world hurdle about twenty times this morning and I'm convinced Oscara Dara was hampered on the last turn and was at least the third best horse in the race.

Worth 5 e/w at 33/1 at any rate.

Slattsy

After much deliberation i've went with Overturn. Finally has his ideal conditions so i went with my heart.

I couldnt dessert Solwhit after Cheltenham. African Gold is a danger with his form franked, but still has to improve to win this.

Really like Eduard in the first, think he'll love the ground and will get a decent pace he needs with Up and Go in the race.

Biggest bet of the day on Sunnyhillboy :eek: who'd haave won the race last year if McClernon didnt stop riding. 25/1 was too big.
Small bets on :
T43
Imperial Commander
Chicago Grey.

I fancied Seabass all season, but thought he'd be a 16/1(ish) chance come race day, so i left him alone at the price.

MoscowFlyer

Moment of truth for UP AND GO. I've invested quite a bit @ 2/1. Please win!