8-10's Baseball Log 2013

8-10

Ok on my phone so won't give too much of a log write up but basically ill be doing my usual 3x €5 doubles on either 1st half betting or 0 runs in first inning this season.

€5 is my 1pt stake by the way. Just find it easier to log with actual money than a points system but just wanted to be clear that I see these as 3x 1pt bets.

First up tonight I'm taking:

1st half match betting:
Kansas City Royals @ 11/10
Detroit Tigers @ 20/37

0 runs in the first inning:
San Fran Giants v LA Dodgers @ 10/17

€15 staked

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

1st half match betting:
Kansas City Royals @ 11/10 Lose
Detroit Tigers @ 20/37 Win

0 runs in the first inning:
San Fran Giants v LA Dodgers @ 10/17 Win

€15 staked

Not the ideal start as the longer odd choice let me down. Was lucky with the 1st inning bet. I was pretty nervous watching Matt Cain take 30 pitches including I think 11 to strike out Kemp. But Royals didn't have the run support for Shields who pitched well. Sale was excellent but I expected better from the Royals who had beaten White Sox 12 out of the last 18 tries.

Oh well, least we got some money back. Tonight's picks will be up late afternoon.

Total Staked: 15
Total Returned: 12.23
Return on Investment: (12.23-15)/15 = -18.47%
P/L on €100 starting bank: -2.77
Bank: 97.23

8-10

Ok markets up early today. Hopefully it'll be like this all season. Last couple of years PP have waited until a couple of hours before the games to put up the 1st half match betting market. 3x doubles:

1st Half Match Betting:
Tampa Bay Rays @ 20/37
San Francisco Giants @ 20/21
Cleveland Indians @ 31/20

That's right, I'm betting against Blue Jays new bats. Feeling ballsy!

€15 staked

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

1st Half Match Betting:
Tampa Bay Rays @ 20/37 Lose
San Francisco Giants @ 20/21 Win
Cleveland Indians @ 31/20 Win

Rays let me down. However Cleveland did the business in Toronto so again it turned out ok. 2 out of 3 ain't bad! Got €24.89 back on that double.

Total Staked: €30
Total Returned: €37.12
Return on Investment: (37.12-30)/30 = +23.73%
P/L on €100 starting bank: +€7.12
Bank: €107.12

Today's picks up later. They won't be every day but I think there's enough games today that I'll see something. Just to be clear my picks aren't 100% opinion or 100% statistical projections. Always a hybrid.

8-10

I'm toying with the idea of the Over 1.5 runs in 9th inning market. Essentially it's betting on closers blown saves or poor relievers.

I am wondering if we look at teams with a weak bullpen, maybe the bottom 6 or 7 teams in the Majors, and look for when they play against each other. Then look for instances where one or both of the regular closer is injured or has pitched the previous night.

Pretty much all the teams average less than 0.5 runs conceded in the 9th inning over 162 games with only Mets and Brewers higher last year.

But with PP odds all either 4/1 or 9/2, my suspicion is that these odds are standard per night as these odds will cover the market on average over the season.

So what we would need to do is target those nights where the runs in the 9th will be more likely to be 2 or more. If we can predict the probability of these and only bet on these games at 4/1 or 9/2, we may be able to get an edge on the static prices.

So if there's any suggestions on things to look at please let me know. I'm going to see what I can dig up online and what data I have, and then start testing models for 9th inning runs.

8-10

Ok first half Match Betting odds markets are up. Looks like Nationals and Blue Jays are going to be very difficult to bet on this year with the odds given. I'll stay away from them both.

1st Half Match Betting:
Philadelphia Phillies @ 11/10
New York Mets @ 4/6
LA Angels @ 23/20

€15 staked

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

I'm toying with the idea of the Over 1.5 runs in 9th inning market. Essentially it's betting on closers blown saves or poor relievers.

I am wondering if we look at teams with a weak bullpen, maybe the bottom 6 or 7 teams in the Majors, and look for when they play against each other. Then look for instances where one or both of the regular closer is injured or has pitched the previous night.

Pretty much all the teams average less than 0.5 runs conceded in the 9th inning over 162 games with only Mets and Brewers higher last year.

But with PP odds all either 4/1 or 9/2, my suspicion is that these odds are standard per night as these odds will cover the market on average over the season.

So what we would need to do is target those nights where the runs in the 9th will be more likely to be 2 or more. If we can predict the probability of these and only bet on these games at 4/1 or 9/2, we may be able to get an edge on the static prices.

So if there's any suggestions on things to look at please let me know. I'm going to see what I can dig up online and what data I have, and then start testing models for 9th inning runs.

New plan. Anytime the cents balance after the decimal in my bank is over 50 (so not currently as it's 12, €92.12) I will use that rounding amount in a 9th inning over bet. If it were today I'd put it on Rockies v Brewers at 17/4 but it's not.

Reason being that until I get more research done I don't want to start staking properly on it, but I'm intrigued by the market so ill use the rounding in my bank to give it a go along the way.

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

If it were today I'd put it on Rockies v Brewers at 17/4 but it's not.

Well it would have been a winner, 3 runs scored in the 9th inning. Will continue to pick out possibilities to see if this is worth betting on. Kind of annoyed as I had this selection on my betslip yesterday afternoon and didn't pull the trigger, but such is life.

8-10 wrote: »

1st Half Match Betting:
Philadelphia Phillies @ 11/10 Lose
New York Mets @ 4/6 Win
LA Angels @ 23/20 Lose

Looks really bad for Halladay now, terrible spring continues into a bad first start. Albeit 9 strikeouts, he gave up homers and runs and that bet lost. Big 4th inning for the Reds saw my backing of CJ Wilson lose. Matt Harvey at the Mets is still a favourite and came through but no double winners.

Total Staked: €45
Total Returned: €37.12
Return on Investment: (37.12-45)/45 = -17.51%
P/L on €100 starting bank: -€7.88
Bank: €92.12

8-10

Odds aren't up yet for 1st half (will edit post once they are, should be mid-afternoon) but my 3 picks today:

1st Half Match Betting:
Baltimore Orioles @ evens
Toronto Blue Jays @ 4/7

0 Runs in 1st Inning:
Philadelphia Phillies v Atlanta Braves @ 8/13

Edit: Ok had to remove Pirates as PP don't have them listed for the 1st half market. Replaced them with the Orioles who I'm less confident about but still should start well.

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

1st Half Match Betting:
Baltimore Orioles @ evens Push
Toronto Blue Jays @ 4/7 Win

0 Runs in 1st Inning:
Philadelphia Phillies v Atlanta Braves @ 8/13 Win

Orioles went on to win the game but it was only 1-1 after 5 innings. That's ok, makes it the best day so far but still awaiting the first 3-win day!

Total Staked: €60
Total Returned: €65.75
Return on Investment: (65.75-60)/60 = +9.58%
P/L on €100 starting bank: +€5.75
Bank: €105.75

8-10

Ok no doubles today, just don't have 3 picks worthy of inclusion and not going to make picks for the sake of it.

One thing I will do is use the cent balance to test the 9th inning market as explained above.

I have 75 cent and am going to put it on the Yankees v Tigers game, 2 or more runs in 9th inning @ 19/4

Reasoning is that Yankees closer Rivera pitched last night and is just back from injury so very unlikely to pitch the 9th tonight. And Tigers don't have a closer. They started the season with Phil Coke in the spot but he blew a lead in the 9th on Wednesday. They'll have somebody else in but again it won't be a regular closer.

Let's see how that goes....€0.75 staked

Bank is now €105 even

8-10

€0.75 bet on 9th inning lost. Was spoilt for choice yesterday with all the good pitchers playing but my usual 0 runs in the 1st on those games would have failed on a number of them (yankees, angels games for example), so luckily I was too busy to have a bet and include the log.

So today's games I'm playing a bit safer (I hope). 1st half match betting on the following:

Red Sox @ 4/6
Mets @ evens
Giants @ 10/17

The bet I really am tempted by is the Diamondbacks with Cahill on the mound, but I'm just afraid that they won't hit and their streak (4 wins on the bounce) will end. So I'm instead taking Madison Bumgardner v Rockies despite my concerns with San Francisco's run support versus an in-form Colorado team.

Bucholz is still underrated as a starter this year so taking him for value. And Matt Harvey looks a real good player since break-out last year and is against a very erratic Roy Halladay who burned me last week. I think even if he bounces back, Harvey will still be solid and Mets are in better form than Philadelphia.

Odds posted later when PP puts them up but them's my 3!

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

Red Sox @ 4/6 Push
Mets @ evens Win
Giants @ 10/17 Win

The bet I really am tempted by is the Diamondbacks with Cahill on the mound, but I'm just afraid that they won't hit and their streak (4 wins on the bounce) will end. So I'm instead taking Madison Bumgardner v Rockies despite my concerns with San Francisco's run support versus an in-form Colorado team.

Bucholz is still underrated as a starter this year so taking him for value. And Matt Harvey looks a real good player since break-out last year and is against a very erratic Roy Halladay who burned me last week. I think even if he bounces back, Harvey will still be solid and Mets are in better form than Philadelphia.

So I called all of that pretty well. Stayed away from Diamondbacks and their streak did indeed end. They lost 5-3 and were 4-3 down through 5 innings.

Buchholz pitched well again but didn't get run support until the 7th so that was a void bet. Harvey was on form and Halladay had another bad outing as predicted so that's a winner, as was the Giants behind Bumgardner.

Total Staked: €75.75
Total Returned: €99.57
Return on Investment: (99.57-75.75)/75.75 = +31.45%
P/L on €100 starting bank: +€23.82
Bank: €123.82

8-10

Ok tonight's picks are going to be pretty short but it's 3 pitchers I like in favourable matchups: Kris Medlen, Cliff Lee and Josh Beckett

1st half match betting:

Atlanta Braves @ 10/17
Philadelphia Phillies @ 10/19
LA Dodgers @ 8/11

Odds up this afternoon.

8-10

Almost forgot my rounding bet:

€0.82 on 2 or more Runs in 9th inning in the Astros v Mariners game (wanted it to be Brewers v Cubs but PP only has 2 markets for this game, anyone know why?)

Odds is 17/4. Bank is €108 with €15.82 in play.

roro2

8-10 wrote: »

Almost forgot my rounding bet:

€0.82 on 2 or more Runs in 9th inning in the Astros v Mariners game (wanted it to be Brewers v Cubs but PP only has 2 markets for this game, anyone know why?)

Odds is 17/4. Bank is €108 with €15.82 in play.

They're both up there now - 4/1 each.

8-10

roro2 wrote: »

They're both up there now - 4/1 each.

Already pulled the trigger on the Astros. Oh well. Thanks.

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

1st half match betting:

Atlanta Braves @ 10/17 Win
Philadelphia Phillies @ 10/19 Win
LA Dodgers @ 8/11 Lose

8-10 wrote: »

€0.82 on 2 or more Runs in 9th inning in the Astros v Mariners game @ 17/4. Win

So again fall short of getting all 3 right. I should have stuck with Nationals ahead of Dodgers. Return €12.12 from the 2 that did win

9th inning bet won though, 5 runs in the 9th, crazy game for hits. €0.82 returned €4.30

Total Staked: €91.57
Total Returned: €115.99
Return on Investment: (115.99-91.57)/91.57 = +26.67%
P/L on €100 starting bank: +€24.42
Bank: €124.42

8-10

Also I already know my 3 bets for tonight, only problem is again there seems to be no markets for Brewers v Cubs so might have to substitute that one. Really weird why it's that game only that has no markets??

1st half match betting:
Brewers @ 4/5
Diamondbacks @ 10/19

0 Runs in 1st inning:
Rays v Rangers @ 10/11

Odds for 1st half match betting up at 3.30pm usually. I will update then and make a call on the Brewers game if that isn't up by then.

I also really like the Diamondbacks -1.5 handicap @ 23/20 but not going to put it in the log as I want to stick to my 2 core bet types. But if you're looking at a decent evens-ish bet I think it's worth a look.

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

1st half match betting:
Brewers @ 4/5 Void (Postponed due to rain)
Diamondbacks @ 10/19 Win

0 Runs in 1st inning:
Rays v Rangers @ 10/11Win

Brewers game got called off due to rain which is a real shame, I really felt good about these picks and fancied this as the first day with 3 winners. At least it was a void and not a loss, returns €31.75

8-10 wrote: »

I also really like the Diamondbacks -1.5 handicap @ 23/20 but not going to put it in the log as I want to stick to my 2 core bet types. But if you're looking at a decent evens-ish bet I think it's worth a look.

Also by the way this ended up being an easier winner than I thought. Diamondbacks won 10-2 easily beating the -1.5 handicap. Well done if you got on it, though as I said I'm not including this bet in my log.

State of play after 7 x €15 bets:

Total Staked: €106.57
Total Returned: €147.74
Return on Investment: (106.57-147.74)/147.74 = +38.63%
P/L on €100 starting bank: +€41.17
Bank: €141.17

8-10

Today's 3...only got 80% of my usual confidence in these though so I'd probably go with 0.75pts instead of 1pt on the doubles today if you're following.

My main worry is Red Sox playing Orioles. I have no confidence in Aceves and he's got poor projections so that's why I'm backing Tillman. But the odds are good and I really want to have a bet on King Felix and Greinke so needed the 3rd pick. Disclaimer over, it's still the €15 for the log:

1st Half Match Betting-

Orioles @ 11/10
Dodgers @ 10/17
Mariners @ 20/33

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

1st Half Match Betting-

Orioles @ 11/10 Push
Dodgers @ 10/17 Win
Mariners @ 20/33 Lose

Well I was surprised that Orioles didn't score more runs early on, think it was 2-2 after 5 innings so bet void. Greinke's Dodgers just about made it but Texas scuppered my Mariners bet. Only €7.94 returned on the Push/Win.

Just a pre-warning that I've gotten a good bit of analysis done this week thanks to having yesterday off work so it looks like I'll have 3 bets today but I might do 6 tomorrow, so 3 and 3 I guess. Picks up later but I just need to do a bit more research on a couple of matchups for tomorrow. Will try and post them up as early as possible as usual, and then edit when the odds are posted on PP.

Total Staked: €121.57
Total Returned: €155.68
Return on Investment: (121.57-155.68)/155.68 = +28.06%
P/L on €100 starting bank: +€34.11
Bank: €134.11

8-10

Today's 3:

1st half match betting:
Braves @ 23/20
Giants @ 8/13
Rangers @ 20/29

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

Today's 3:

1st half match betting:
Braves @ 23/20 Lose
Giants @ 8/13 Lose
Rangers @ 20/29 Lose

All 3 losers! (On phone so ill do the 'Lose' part in bold red when I'm on a computer)

Will only take 3 today but it's so hard to choose:

0 runs in first inning:
Giants v Cubs @ 20/23

1st half betting:
Rays @ 11/10
Diamondbacks @ 4/5

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

0 runs in first inning:
Giants v Cubs @ 20/23 Win

1st half betting:
Rays @ 11/10 Push
Diamondbacks @ 4/5 Lose

Pretty annoyed about that as Diamondbacks were my favourite bet of all yesterday.

Updated:

Total Staked: €151.57
Total Returned: €165.03
Return on Investment: (165.03-151.57)/151.57 = +8.88%
P/L on €100 starting bank: +€13.46
Bank: €113.46

Today's 3:

1st half betting:

Red Sox @ 20/29
Brewers @ 27/20

0 Runs in 1st inning:

Braves v Nats @ 2/3

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

1st half betting:

Red Sox @ 20/29 Win
Brewers @ 27/20 Lose

0 Runs in 1st inning:

Braves v Nats @ 2/3 Lose

Brewers actually won their game but were behind after 5 innings. Shame. No returns again and we're back at break-even essentially:

Total Staked: €166.57
Total Returned: €165.03
Return on Investment: (165.03-166.57)/166.57 = -0.92%
P/L on €100 starting bank: -€1.54
Bank: €98.46

No bets today

8-10

No bets today either but have a new approach starting tomorrow

8-10

Ok so I've updated my win and ERA projections for all starting pitchers (well, at least the top 3 in the rotation of each team) based on a few adjustments from the first few weeks of the season.

So I'm now analyzing matchups between pitchers with the aim of backing the likely winners. So I'm concentrating on pitchers that I project winning at least 13 games and/or less than 3.50 ERA against pitchers more likely to lose with higher ERAs, ideally playing for a team with an inferior offence. (I have runs created projections per team but I am hoping to be able to adjust this on a player basis and extrapolate up, however not knowing all the lineups by the time of betting may be an issue)

The reason for this change is that too many times above, I have had 4 or 5 selections in a day but constrained myself to 3 and picked the wrong 3! Or, I had 2 strong selections and picked another just to get the 3 rather than have 0 in a day.

So this new system will likely have a lot more bets in a day, and a lot more days with no bets. This is my guess anyway, it will balance out a bit more as the rotations start getting mixed up further.

My stake is now €21 per day of selection, up from €15 (also works well with different multiples), and I'll start with next few days of picks:

So picks for today 04/17:

1st Half Match Betting:

Indians @ 4/6
Dodgers @ 5/13
Mariners @ 5/6
Rays @ 5/6


0 Runs in 1st inning:

Arizona v Yankees @ 8/11

€1 x 10 doubles
€1 x 10 trebles
€1 x 5-Fold

€21 staked

Picks for Thursday 04/18:

1st Half Match Betting:

Red Sox
Giants
Rays

0 Runs in 1st inning:

Cardinals v Phillies
Cubs v Rangers

€1 x 10 doubles
€1 x 10 trebles
€1 x 5-Fold

€21 staked

Picks for Friday 04/19:

1st Half Match Betting:

Diamondbacks
Giants
Rangers

0 Runs in 1st inning:

Royals v Red Sox

€3.35 x 6 Doubles
€0.90 x 4-Fold

€21 staked

Picks for Saturday 04/20:

1st Half Match Betting:

Diamondbacks
Braves
Phillies
Nationals

€3.35 x 6 Doubles
€0.90 x 4-Fold

€21 staked

Picks for Sunday 04/21:

1st Half Match Betting:

Braves
Tigers
Nationals

€6 x 3 Doubles
€3 x Treble

€21 staked

I will edit this post with stakes for today once posted on PP (should be within the hour) and will quote each day on the other days (just so the timestamp on this post is clearly today and doesn't change everyday)

wish me luck!

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

Picks for Thursday 04/18:

1st Half Match Betting:

Red Sox @ 5/7
Giants @ 20/23
Rays @ 4/6

0 Runs in 1st inning:

Cardinals v Phillies @ 4/6
Cubs v Rangers @ 8/15

€1 x 10 doubles
€1 x 10 trebles
€1 x 5-Fold

€21 staked

Nothing returned yesterday. Disaster all round.

Fingers crossed for today. After the above have finished, moving forward I'm going to change to 0 runs in 2nd inning instead of 1st as it is statistically less likely to have a run than the 1st. Odds reflect this of course, but in multiples you need more selections to win, I'm not concerned about value here.

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

Picks for Friday 04/19:

1st Half Match Betting:

Diamondbacks @ 21/20
Giants @ 5/11
Rangers @20/41

0 Runs in 1st inning:

Royals v Red Sox @20/23

€3.35 x 6 Doubles
€0.90 x 4-Fold

€21 staked

!

With events in Boston I'm sceptical that Red Sox game will go ahead at all but ill place the bet anyway

8-10

Ok this log has been a disaster in terms of weekend games. I just can't get online to update or place bets. So I have to scratch Sat and Sunday's picks above as I didn't get the odds for them and didn't place them. A shame and I won't post that far ahead again as I might not get to update.

So let me show state of play after Thursday and Friday:

Total Staked: €229.57
Total Returned: €207.52
Return on Investment: (207.52-229.57)/229.57 = -9.6%
P/L on €100 starting bank: -€22.05
Bank: €77.95

Bets for today:

1st Half Betting:

Phillies @ 4/7
Mariners @ 4/5
Giants @ 4/6
Rangers @ 5/6
Dodgers @ 20/31
Rays @ 10/19

Under 0.5 Runs in 2nd Inning:

Cardinals v Nationals @ 8/15

35 x €0.60 Trebles = €21 staked

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

1st Half Betting:

Phillies @ 4/7 Lose
Mariners @ 4/5 Lose
Giants @ 4/6 Lose
Rangers @ 5/6 Lose
Dodgers @ 20/31 Push
Rays @ 10/19 Push

Under 0.5 Runs in 2nd Inning:

Cardinals v Nationals @ 8/15 Win

Total Staked: €250.57
Total Returned: €207.52
Return on Investment: (207.52-250.57)/250.57 = -17.18%
P/L on €100 starting bank: -€43.05
Bank: €56.95

Well this is going downhill fast! Ok more picks:

Under 0.5 in 2nd inning:

Cubs v Reds @ 4/7
Diamondbacks v Giants @ 8/15

1st Half Match Betting:

Nationals @ 20/31
Red Sox @ 10/17
Pirates @ 11/10
Mets @ 10/17

20 x €1 Trebles
1x €1 6-Fold
€21 staked

Also forgot about the rounding:

€0.95 on 2 or more runs in 9th inning @ 9/2 in Brewers v Padres game.

Bank is now a disappointing €35 :eek:

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

Under 0.5 in 2nd inning:

Cubs v Reds @ 4/7 Win
Diamondbacks v Giants @ 8/15 Win

1st Half Match Betting:

Nationals @ 20/31 Lose
Red Sox @ 10/17 Win
Pirates @ 11/10 Lose
Mets @ 10/17 Push

20 x €1 Trebles
1x €1 6-Fold
€21 staked

€0.95 on 2 or more runs in 9th inning @ 9/2 in Brewers v Padres game. Lose

Returned a whopping €11.17

Bit unlucky I feel. Pirates win the game but were behind at the half. Mets won their game but were level at the half. Strasburg pitched excellently for the Nationals after giving up 3 runs in the first but didn't get the run support. The Nats' bats have been very cold recently. The rounding bet was close but it's only a small amount.

Total Staked: €272.52
Total Returned: €218.69
Return on Investment: (218.69-272.52)/272.52 = -19.75%
P/L on €100 starting bank: -€53.83
Bank: €46.17

Today's Picks:

Diamondbacks @ 10/13
Phillies @ 20/39
Yankees @ 8/13
Red Sox @ 5/13
*LATE ADDITION: Dodgers @ 20/29

Under 0.5 runs in 2nd inning:

Tigers v Royals @ 8/15

20 x €1 trebles
1 x €1 6-fold

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

Diamondbacks @ 10/13 Win
Phillies @ 20/39 Win
Yankees @ 8/13 Win
Red Sox @ 5/13 Win
*LATE ADDITION: Dodgers @ 20/29 Win

Under 0.5 runs in 2nd inning:

Tigers v Royals @ 8/15 Win

20 x €1 trebles = €79.22
1 x €1 6-fold = €15.51

Finally got a day of all winners!

Ok that should help kick-start the log. I also wanted to include the Nationals and White Sox (had the latter on the betslip) but didn't want to have so many selections when I haven't been getting the wins and didn't fancy the form or matchups! However both of those also won the 1st half betting so it was just one of those days where everything fell right. (Hope that's not aftertiming, just to note I didn't actually place a bet on either of those, they were just on my list)

State of play:

Total Staked: €293.52
Total Returned: €313.42
Return on Investment: (313.42-293.52)/293.52 = +6.78%
P/L on €100 starting bank: €19.90
Bank: €119.90

8-10

Today's picks, all 1st half betting:

Nationals @ 20/29
Braves @ 59/50
Angels @ 20/29

Angels really need to score runs, I'm not that confident about that pick but I'm hoping the odds will prove value.

3x €6 doubles
1x €3 treble

€21 staked

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

Nationals @ 20/29 Win
Braves @ 59/50 Lose
Angels @ 20/29 Win

Braves surprised me with Maholm getting hit badly. Ah well. €17.13 returned.

Total Staked: €314.52
Total Returned: €330.55
Return on Investment: (330.55-314.52)/314.52 = +5.10%
P/L on €100 starting bank: €16.03
Bank: €116.03

Picks today 1st half:

Diamondbacks @ 4/7
Braves @ 5/6
Yankees @ 10/17
Mariners @ 4/7
Rays @ 4/5

10x €1 doubles
10x €1 trebles
1x €1 5-Fold

8-10

Small return yesterday, I'll update balance tomorrow after these results.

5 Picks:

1st Half Match Betting:

Cubs @ 20/31
Mets @ 8/13
Nationals @ 10/13

Under 0.5 Runs in 2nd Inning:

Giants v Diamondbacks @ 4/7
Cardinals v Reds @ 8/15

Edit: add stake sorry same as always for 5 selections:

10x €1 doubles
10x €1 trebles
1x €1 5-Fold

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

Picks today 1st half:

Diamondbacks @ 4/7 Win
Braves @ 5/6 Lose
Yankees @ 10/17 Push
Mariners @ 4/7 Lose
Rays @ 4/5 Win

€9.03 returned

8-10 wrote: »

1st Half Match Betting:

Cubs @ 20/31 Push
Mets @ 8/13 Win
Nationals @ 10/13 Push

Under 0.5 Runs in 2nd Inning:

Giants v Diamondbacks @ 4/7 Lose
Cardinals v Reds @ 8/15 Win

€17.87 returned

So it's:

Total Staked: €356.52
Total Returned: €357.45
Return on Investment: (357.45-356.52)/356.52 = +0.26%
P/L on €100 starting bank: €0.93
Bank: €100.93

Today:

1st Half Betting:

Yankees @ 20/31
Diamondbacks @ 10/13
Cardinals @ 10/11
Mariners @ 5/7
Tigers @ 10/19
Indians @ 4/6
Dodgers @20/29

35x €0.50 trebles
35x €0.50 4-folds
7x €1 6-folds

Also €0.93 on 2 or more runs in 9th inning of Tigers v Astros game @19/4

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

1st Half Betting:

Yankees @ 20/31 Lose
Diamondbacks @ 10/13 Lose
Cardinals @ 10/11 Win
Mariners @ 5/7 Win
Tigers @ 10/19 Win
Indians @ 4/6 Win
Dodgers @20/29 Win

Also €0.93 on 2 or more runs in 9th inning of Tigers v Astros game @19/4 Win

Total returns 50.59

Total Staked: €399.45
Total Returned: €408.04
Return on Investment: (408.04-399.45)/399.45 = +2.15%
P/L on €100 starting bank: €8.59
Bank: €108.59

8-10

Today going with:

1st Half Betting:

Braves @ evens
Mets @ 20/33
Yankees @ 21/20

Under 0.5 Runs in 2nd Inning:

Tigers v A's @ 8/15

6x €2.50 doubles
4x €1 trebles
1x €2 4-fold

9th Inning Total Runs - 2 or more Runs:

€0.59 on Red Sox v Twins @ 17/4

Bank €87

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

Today going with:

1st Half Betting:

Braves @ evens Win
Mets @ 20/33 Push
Yankees @ 21/20 Push

Under 0.5 Runs in 2nd Inning:

Tigers v A's @ 8/15Push (postponed, was v Nats not A's sorry!)

6x €2.50 doubles
4x €1 trebles
1x €2 4-fold

9th Inning Total Runs - 2 or more Runs:

€0.59 on Red Sox v Twins @ 17/4 Lose

Bank €87

No losers in my 4 selections but no returns! 1 win, 2 games that were 0-0 after 5 innings, and a postponement.

8-10

Bullish today:

1st half betting:

Rays @ 20/39
Nats @ 20/21
Indians @ 5/6
Mariners @ 5/6
Twins @ 25/17

10 x €2 doubles
10 x €2 trebles
5x €1 4-folds

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

Bullish today:

1st half betting:

Rays @ 20/39 Win
Nats @ 20/21 Win
Indians @ 5/6 Lose
Mariners @ 5/6 Push
Twins @ 25/17 Win

10 x €2 doubles
10 x €2 trebles
5x €1 4-folds

Returns €79.82

Total Staked: €466.04
Total Returned: €487.86
Return on Investment: (487.86-466.04)/466.04 = +4.68%
P/L on €100 starting bank: €21.82
Bank: €121.82

8-10

Tonight:

1st half betting:

Yankees @ 10/13
Braves @ 21/20
Rays @ 20/31

Under 0.5 Runs in 2nd inning:

Phillies v D'Backs @ 4/7

6 x €2 doubles
4x €2 trebles
1x €1 4-fold

Rounding bet:

2 or more runs in 9th inning:

€0.82 on Red Sox v Twins @ 15/4

Bank is back to even €100 with those in play!

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

Tonight:

1st half betting:

Yankees @ 10/13 Win
Braves @ 21/20 Win
Rays @ 20/31 Lose

Under 0.5 Runs in 2nd inning:

Phillies v D'Backs @ 4/7 Win

2 or more runs in 9th inning:

€0.82 on Red Sox v Twins @ 15/4 Lose

Returns €30.66

Total Staked: €487.86
Total Returned: €518.52
Return on Investment: (518.52-487.86)/487.86 = +6.28%
P/L on €100 starting bank: €30.66
Bank: €130.66

Too much choice today I could literally have a pick in every game! So no bets for the log.

8-10

Tonight:

First Half Match Betting:

Brewers @ 4/5
Padres @ 23/20
Dodgers @ 1/2
Rangers @ 20/23
Royals @ 11/10

Under 0.5 Runs in 2nd inning:

Mariners v Yankees @ 8/11
Red Sox v Rays @ 4/7
Braves v Diamondbacks @ 8/15

€0.50 5-folds
€0.50 7-Folds

Rounding bet: 2 or more runs in 9th inning:

€0.66 on Reds v Marlins @ 17/4

€32.66 staked, bank €98

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

Tonight:

First Half Match Betting:

Brewers @ 4/5 Win
Padres @ 23/20 Push
Dodgers @ 1/2 Win
Rangers @ 20/23 Win
Royals @ 11/10 Lose

Under 0.5 Runs in 2nd inning:

Mariners v Yankees @ 8/11 Win
Red Sox v Rays @ 4/7 Win
Braves v Diamondbacks @ 8/15 Win

€0.50 5-folds
€0.50 7-Folds

Rounding bet: 2 or more runs in 9th inning:

€0.66 on Reds v Marlins @ 17/4 Lose

Great night last night! Returned €106 on €32 staked, brings us up to 20% ROI:

Revised ROI:

Total Staked: €520.52
Total Returned: €624.52
Return on Investment: (624.52-520.52)/520.52 = +19.98%
P/L on €100 starting bank: €104
Bank: €204

8-10

Ok doubled the bank, very happy with that achievement. Another 8 selections tonight, same 50c 5-folds and 7-folds as yesterday:

Under 0.5 runs in 2nd inning:

Red Sox v Rays @ 8/15

1st half betting:

Dodgers @ 4/6
Cubs @ 20/29
Mariners @ 21/20
Braves @ 20/23
Pirates @ 10/11
Tigers @ 10/33
Phillies @ 20/33

8-10

Under 0.5 runs in 2nd inning:

Red Sox v Rays @ 8/15 Win

1st half betting:

Dodgers @ 4/6 Win
Cubs @ 20/29 Win
Mariners @ 21/20 Win
Braves @ 20/23 Lose
Pirates @ 10/11 Push
Tigers @ 10/33 Lose
Phillies @ 20/33 Lose

Returned 4.43. Boo.

Picks tonight:

1st half betting:

Marlins @ 13/10
Rockies @ 20/21
Nationals @ 4/6

Under 0.5 Runs in 2nd inning:

Tigers v Rangers @ 8/11

6x €3 doubles
4x €3 trebles

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

1st half betting:

Marlins @ 13/10 Push
Rockies @ 20/21 Win
Nationals @ 4/6 Win

Under 0.5 Runs in 2nd inning:

Tigers v Rangers @ 8/11 Win

Good stuff! Returns €89.93 on €30 staked

State of play:

Total Staked: €582.52
Total Returned: €718.88
Return on Investment: (718.88-582.52)/582.52 = +23.41%
P/L on €100 starting bank: €136.36
Bank: €236.36

Will have more picks up later.

8-10

Going big:

1st Half Match Betting:

Mariners @ 5/6
Blue Jays @ 8/13
Yankees @ 4/6
Red Sox @ 20/31
Phillies @ 20/37
Mets @ 27/20
A's @ 11/10
Royals @ 4/7
Dodgers @ 4/6
D'Backs @ 5/6
Cardinals @ 4/6

165 x 0.15c 8-Folds
55 x 0.10c 9-Folds
1x 0.75c 11-fold