Glanbia Fixed price scheme

delaval

Any thoughts. I'm not sure what I'm going to do as yet. Do not like the line about preferance for later schemes if you are in/out of this one. we have 25% in fixed price at the moment and I feel it's enough. I would love your feedback

Viewtodiefor

delaval wrote: »

Any thoughts. I'm not sure what I'm going to do as yet. Do not like the line about preferance for later schemes if you are in/out of this one. we have 25% in fixed price at the moment and I feel it's enough. I would love your feedback

Entered the one last year applied for 60% of quota into it got 12%.

Think I will apply for same again as it gives some certainty to the situation going into 2015. Just wondering was last years one only for a year or was it 3 yr? And if you get into this one is it Ontop of last years one? They seem to be trying to pin fellows down to fixed price is there something we don't know n they do I'm wondering?

delaval

Last was for3 yrs. I am wondering the same. They want a large volume this time. I agree on certainty but might have enough commited

Viewtodiefor

delaval wrote: »

Last was for3 yrs. I am wondering the same. They want a large volume this time. I agree on certainty but might have enough commited

How much a liter do u reckon the avg price will work out at?

Timmaay

Didn't bother with any of the previous ones, don't know if I'll bother with any of the future ones yet, however probably a key difference between me and you delaval, your borrowings are much much larger, so I assume certainty in respect to repayments is some of the your reasoning for availing of the fixed price?

TEAT SQUEEZER

have 10% of ex-liquid surplus in the 2 previous ones.. 0.8c/l advantage in doing so we are told.

dont like this one as much.. high input benchmark so little leeway there for a price boost.. base of 30 will be way off the pace in 2013 i think(hope)...so we`re depending on substantial price drops(2014/15) and these high input costs to remain to make this a runner..

dont like the implication of its now or never with giil and guys dont over look the fact that their "sustainability scheme " is being slipped into the small print aswell...

Farmer Pudsey

I always believe in riding the rhino. The only thing I fix is machinery and the car etc. When you fix loan rates or a future price there is someone making a margin. As far as I can see all the Co-Op's and merchants want farmers to fix as prices are rising. But when you fix you are fixing at bit below the present rate. Personally I gamble.

The Co-Op are using this to secure cheap milk for major customers not to your or my benifit

ted1

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

I always believe in riding the rhino. The only thing I fix is machinery and the car etc. When you fix loan rates or a future price there is someone making a margin. As far as I can see all the Co-Op's and merchants want farmers to fix as prices are rising. But when you fix you are fixing at bit below the present rate. Personally I gamble.

The Co-Op are using this to secure cheap milk for major customers not to your or my benifit

If they source enough are you not afraid of bring left with sour milk

delaval

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

I always believe in riding the rhino. The only thing I fix is machinery and the car etc. When you fix loan rates or a future price there is someone making a margin. As far as I can see all the Co-Op's and merchants want farmers to fix as prices are rising. But when you fix you are fixing at bit below the present rate. Personally I gamble.

The Co-Op are using this to secure cheap milk for major customers not to your or my benifit

I'm with you on this. The price is too low, we are betting that the price is going to fall to lower than 30c and not rise above 34. The outlook in the medium term is good and I think 2015 is put in to make us a little more cautious.
It's hard to calculate but the best we can come up with is that we had a small loss on our fixed milk with the scheme we are in, having said that I like the index link. On balance I think I'll ride the rhino as you put it so well.

Squeezer, can you fill us in on sustainability scheme?

stanflt

Don't see the benefit of the scheme- with a six cent a litre increase coming in two 3cent rises or three 2 cent rises where do justify selling milk for 30cent a litre when everyone else is near 40cent. Milk will be volatile but if you can't survive the low 20 cent a litre milk you have no right producing milk- we are on a world market and have to be able to survive

Farmer Pudsey

stanflt wrote: »

Don't see the benefit of the scheme- with a six cent a litre increase coming in two 3cent rises or three 2 cent rises where do justify selling milk for 30cent a litre when everyone else is near 40cent. Milk will be volatile but if you can't survive the low 20 cent a litre milk you have no right producing milk- we are on a world market and have to be able to survive

If you are right and milk averages 37c/L for this year it will need to average below 26 for the next two years for you to win. Look like a cheap milk grab.

mf240

What you mean the large multinational company doesent have my best interests at heart?

TEAT SQUEEZER

mf240 wrote: »

What you mean the large multinational company doesent have my best interests at heart?

thats our new non co-op with a co-op ethos ladies and gents...
back later with my take on te sustainability scheme

TEAT SQUEEZER

delaval wrote: »

I'm with you on this. The price is too low, we are betting that the price is going to fall to lower than 30c and not rise above 34. The outlook in the medium term is good and I think 2015 is put in to make us a little more cautious.
It's hard to calculate but the best we can come up with is that we had a small loss on our fixed milk with the scheme we are in, having said that I like the index link. On balance I think I'll ride the rhino as you put it so well.

Squeezer, can you fill us in on sustainability scheme?[/QUOTE]

in 2011 glanbia went to a random selection of farms to basically asses the carbon inputs in producing the litre of milk.. so fuel and elec usage are the obvious and then fert/feed would be 2nd hand contributors to this "carbon footprint".... its glanbias intention to have their own standard of sustainability ,achieved across their farmers, that they can use to sell their powders etc ... afaik they`re using the average results of the carbon audit as the figure for each producer so we avoid that aspect of it but its coming down the tracks that each dairy farm will have to do a sustainability audit in tandem with the bord bia beef one.. bb are obviously the independance needed for cred. and last year i was "lucky" to have to do my standard beef audit and a pilot of the glan scheme...

it was thorough to say the least ( absence of a no smoking sign was a tick against me) but more time consuming than any thing else.

the old reliables of herd movements/ remedies are there so your killing 2 birds with the one stone that way but they were putting great emphasis on the annual calendar and the completion of the front section etc...

i know i prob got the full whack on my day and they`ll tidy it up before rolling it out but i hate them bloody things and this was one with knobs on...

basically the small print in this new fixed milk offer says agreeing to sign up for fixing is agreeing to take part in the sus audit...

Farmer Pudsey

I am not in milk but I would be slow fixing at these prices. They look on the low side by a couple of cent with the present outlook. Remember all the farmers that fixed grain prices for last year.

delaval

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

I am not in milk but I would be slow fixing at these prices. They look on the low side by a couple of cent with the present outlook. Remember all the farmers that fixed grain prices for last year.

I totally agree. if for any reason a person wants to fix and there are many reasons do not fix too much IMO.

A lot of grain guys got caught because they committed to much ...........
basic error

TEAT SQUEEZER

less than a week to go on this one , anyone sign up ... i think myself events have left this scheme in its wake and the market returns for this year (we hope) will make it v unattractive... that and the high input costs during their base period ( very little room for a price boost imo)

whelan1

so what is the thinking now had a call from glanbia today

Farmer Pudsey

whelan1 wrote: »

so what is the thinking now had a call from glanbia today

What was the story are they looking for farmers to subsidise them

milkprofit

gii milk price only 35 c/lt inc vat and world milk products booming worst spring in history
What rotters

so much for farmer ownership
Northern buyers will sign contract for 35 plus vat for 5 years after 2015

mf240

milkprofit wrote: »

gii milk price only 35 c/lt inc vat and world milk products booming worst spring in history
What rotters so much for farmer ownership
Northern buyers will sign contract for 35 plus vat for 5 years after 2015

But this what ye all voted for sure by the way ye were talking they were going to throw money at us.

Milk should be 40 cent a litre. There well able to charge for the dairy nuts.

TEAT SQUEEZER

milkprofit wrote: »

gii milk price only 35 c/lt inc vat and world milk products booming worst spring in history
What rotters so much for farmer ownership
Northern buyers will sign contract for 35 plus vat for 5 years after 2015

mf240 wrote: »

But this what ye all voted for sure by the way ye were talking they were going to throw money at us.

Milk should be 40 cent a litre. There well able to charge for the dairy nuts.

hee hee now we`re off:D

mf240

TEAT SQUEEZER wrote: »

hee hee now we`re off:D

Just realised I advocated three times a day milking in another thread. We really do make it easy for them don't we.

Timmaay

Letter in the post today from Glanbia, seems as if not many interested, from a very quick read I gather they are offering a sweetener of 32cent instead of 30 for the 1st year. Still doesn't look appealing to me to be honest.

Farmer Pudsey

Timmaay wrote: »

Letter in the post today from Glanbia, seems as if not many interested, from a very quick read I gather they are offering a sweetener of 32cent instead of 30 for the 1st year. Still doesn't look appealing to me to be honest.

With milk looking like it will average 37c/litre or more this year you would have to average below 30 for the following two years. If it averages at 39 then you will need an average milk price of 28.5c/l for the following two years. Another way to look at it is if it averages 37c/L or above for the first year do you expect it to fall below 32 for year two if it averages above 32c/L for year two you would need it to fall to around 25c/l in year 3 for it to be to your advantage to take up the offer

I wonder what happen to the farmers that got a rush of blood and signed up already.

delaval

I find this deal more attractive than the last however I don't think I wil be signing.

Pudsey, the inflation part of the agreement could possibly leave you at the same price as non conract milk. The question is what's inflation going to be?

We were part of the last 2 deal. The first made a loss the second .8c/litre so on balance even stephen.

The mention of 2015 should get all the doomsdayers into it. People feel that we are going over the edge in '15 but in fact it wil happen every 2.5 to 3 yrs anyway.

martin.covan

TEAT SQUEEZER wrote: »

thats our new non co-op with a co-op ethos ladies and gents...

Hear hear!
The entity that codded the co-op membership into giving it 100's of millions worth of their own shares to make it debt free,Now paying a lower than market return for milk...And having codded the farmer once now wants to see if it can trick them again into taking a deep 5 c a litre prolonged cut in price.

The huge irony and sad fact too is the average windfall from the spinout is being cashed in to pay for the losses sustained in the terrible weather we've been having.

Karma.

delaval

martin.covan wrote: »

Hear hear!
The entity that codded the co-op membership into giving it 100's of millions worth of their own shares to make it debt free,Now paying a lower than market return for milk...And having codded the farmer once now wants to see if it can trick them again into taking a deep 5 c a litre prolonged cut in price.

The huge irony and sad fact too is the average windfall from the spinout is being cashed in to pay for the losses sustained in the terrible weather we've been having.

Karma.

I agree in part
I think you might be being a little simplistic there.

martin.covan

delaval wrote: »

I agree in part
I think you might be being a little simplistic there.

I think we'll all be back in the marquee soon enough though,another spinout for the remaining 40% willingly handing over more shares for them to sell to pay for it when they reel us in with more letters saying what the new spinout is worth.
You'd swear it was managements gift..
Oh wait..

But anyhow.Of course price certainty is good.But 32c is a Mickey take obviously designed by people who don't farm for a living.

kowtow

If I was a milk processor I'd give my eye teeth to secure a supply of milk at a fixed price at the moment.

But what do I know... I was trained as a bond dealer.

delaval

500k shares sold in N. Y. Today at €10. Do you think that would be the case had spin out not taken place?

Viewtodiefor

martin.covan wrote: »

I think we'll all be back in the marquee soon enough though,another spinout for the remaining 40% willingly handing over more shares for them to sell to pay for it when they reel us in with more letters saying what the new spinout is worth.
You'd swear it was managements gift..
Oh wait..

But anyhow.Of course price certainty is good.But 32c is a Mickey take obviously designed by people who don't farm for a living.

So what price would you like?

mf240

delaval wrote: »

500k shares sold in N. Y. Today at €10. Do you think that would be the case had spin out not taken place?

As a shareholder in the plc great news.

As a milk supplier it's irrelevant.

Viewtodiefor

mf240 wrote: »

As a shareholder in the plc great news.

As a milk supplier it's irrelevant.

Here's hoping they take after Kerry shares, has to be a win win

mf240

Viewtodiefor wrote: »

Here's hoping they take after Kerry shares, has to be a win win

There are men thinking of spending a lot of money to increse stocking rates post 2015 .

If this money were invested in the plc instead it might well yield a better return and no extra work.
It could be liquidated at any stage.

Viewtodiefor

mf240 wrote: »

There are men thinking of spending a lot of money to increse stocking rates post 2015 .

If this money were invested in the plc instead it might well yield a better return and no extra work.
It could be liquidated at any stage.

Yeah it is a gamble, but I suppose investing in increased stock an all that goes with it is too !

delaval

kowtow wrote: »

If I was a milk processor I'd give my eye teeth to secure a supply of milk at a fixed price at the moment.

But what do I know... I was trained as a bond dealer.

There are several switched on farmers that would love to fix their milk price including me..........unfortunatly I don't think this deal is good enough, but nearly

kowtow

delaval wrote: »

There are several switched on farmers that would love to fix their milk price including me..........unfortunatly I don't think this deal is good enough, but nearly

I assume there is some mechanism in it to mitigate rises in input costs?

delaval

kowtow wrote: »

I assume there is some mechanism in it to mitigate rises in input costs?

Yes there is an index link to agri inflation. Reviewed anually.

mf240

There coming over from england looking for milk now.

Might be an option for some after 2015 a bit of competition is no harm.

Milk price appears to be going in roughly two/three year cycles so one could argue that the higher it rises this year the lower it will fall in 2015. Milked peaked in the high 30s in late 07 and opened in 09 at 19 cent (I think).

delaval

mf240 wrote: »

There coming over from england looking for milk now.

Might be an option for some after 2015 a bit of competition is no harm.

Milk price appears to be going in roughly two/three year cycles so one could argue that the higher it rises this year the lower it will fall in 2015. Milked peaked in the high 30s in late 07 and opened in 09 at 19 cent (I think).

Coming from England according to the FINDO, now that's hardly a reliable source. O'Brien, Shirley et al have got it wrong a few times in the past:mad:

whelan1

sorry for hijacking thread, but is anyones elses milk statement not showing up on agrilink, can normally view it from 16 of the month... its coming up on mine as page can not be viewed since yesterday

rancher

delaval wrote: »

Coming from England according to the FINDO, now that's hardly a reliable source. O'Brien, Shirley et al have got it wrong a few times in the past:mad:

Being discussed on farmingforum at the moment.....some interesting comments
http://farmingforum.co.uk/forums/showthread.php?10398-ARLA-s-take-over-Irish-Milk

whelan1

so is anyone signing up, closing date 26th april

Viewtodiefor

whelan1 wrote: »

so is anyone signing up, closing date 26th april

Havnt done yet! Thinking of 12% into it. That would be total of 25% of quota in fixed schemes then

delaval

I think we'll roll with the punches. Agri inflation looks like falling so I don't think indexation will cover the price gap

Farmer Pudsey

Looking back at this did any of you fix at this price. Will Glanbia bring out a scheme in the New year to reflect present price of milk.

What price did milk average for this year.

whelan2

what do ye think of the new scheme?

Greengrass1

Don't know if we will join. Big losses here in first scheme. Although milk price might fluctuate a lot over the next 2 yrs

marc_faber

anyone here own shares in glanbia , compared to kerry , they havent done much in the last six or eight months , are they topped out or will the abolition of quotas see a big jump in profitability for the PLC ?

mf240

Greengrass1 wrote: »

Don't know if we will join. Big losses here in first scheme. Although milk price might fluctuate a lot over the next 2 yrs

Glanbia want you to sign up all your milk for seven years but will only commit on price for a portion and for three years.

2013 is being used as the reference for inputs so can't see that index going up.


If variable price drops below 27 then they can drop fixed price by a cent for every cent below 27 it goes.( bottom of page 3 in booklet). But they have committed that if variable rises that fixed will be no more than 2 cent below.