April 2013 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

So, will the medieval chill continue in April, or will we see a return to more normal weather conditions?

Here are the details for the April forecast contest ...

1. Predict the IMT, an average of five selected stations, which has averaged 8.6 C for the 30-yr period 1981 to 2010 (it was 8.0 C for 1961-90 and 8.2 for 1971-2000, those figures courtesy of Deep Easterly).

2. Predict the highest daily maximum at any reporting (met.ie) station.

3. Predict the lowest daily minimum at any reporting (met.ie) station.

4. Predict the monthly precip as a percentage of normal (for 11 reporting stations in met.ie Monthly Summary)

5. Predict the monthly sunshine as a percentage of normal (for 6 reporting stations in met.ie Monthly Summary)

6. Bonus -- Predict the maximum temperature on Sunday 14th at Belmullet.

Deadlines for entry ... you have until the end of the day on Monday 1st of April, to enter without penalty. The actual deadline is set at 0300h on Tuesday 2nd of April. After that, it's five point penalties for each half-day late, 0300 to 1500 and 1500 to 0300h used to determine half days.

You can enter by using this form which has been kindly supplied and updated by Sponge Bob. I will check the thread for any old-fashioned entries too.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/viewform?formkey=dElyZTJQeUJzVjdnQ1JBcThYdHpCSEE6MQ#gid=1

Just follow the instructions in the form, and see the link provided there for reviewing other forecasts. I will publish the usual table of entries once we have them all in.

Good luck, and remember, Ireland is in the northern hemisphere, in theory, it should begin to warm up some time soon.

Hammer Archer

Done.

Forgot this month's competition until it was far too late so better get it in early for April.

Bejubby

Done.
This will be interesting.

pauldry

done
i reckon any sort of randomness could happen in April after the March madness

Bsal

Done.

200motels

Done

pauldry

oops i think my monthly max should be 19c and not 18c as I made a typo if its not too late

snowstreams

done

Strasser

Done

Joe Public

Done and frosted

Rikand

done

after my good showing last year - I think I'm aiming for dead last this year

omicron

Done

homolumo

done

dasa29

Done

nilhg

Done

Speak Now

7.2 ..... 19.5 ..... -3.5 .... 85% ..... 105% ..... 11

jd

Done.

DOCARCH

Done

H2UMrsRobinson

Done

talkabout

Done

dexter647

Done

Jpmarn

Done. the Belmullet question is interesting.

waterways

Done. Bellmullet has always it's own weather.

traecy1

Done

Rebelbrowser

Done

okla

Done

lostinashford

Done

mickger844posts

done

Tae laidir

Done

dacogawa

Done

Harps

Done

SeaFields

opps forgot again. done.

rameire

Did mine 4 hours ago. Just forgot to say done.
Not much tinternet in the mountains of limerick cork border.

delw

D'oh forgot


Done

M.T. Cranium

Table of entries for April 2013 contest
_________________________________________


Forecaster _______ IMT ___ MAX ___ MIN ___ PRC ___ SUN ___ Bel-14
___________________________________________________________

jpmarn __________ 9.1 ___ 21.1 ___ -3.9 ___ 091 ___ 110 ___ 12.9
Joe Public ________ 8.9 ___ 24.9 ___ -4.9 ___ 079 ___ 129 ___ 14.9
homolumo _______ 8.8 ___ 18.1 ___ -3.0 ___ 090 ___ 109 ___ 12.3
nilhg ____________ 8.6 ___ 19.6 ___ -3.0 ___ 104 ___ 110 ___ 15.5
M.T. Cranium _____ 8.4 ___ 24.5 ___ -6.0 ___ 100 ___ 135 ___ 14.5
waterways _______ 8.2 ___ 22.1 ___ -5.1 ___ 082 ___ 131 ___ 10.2
dacogawa ________ 8.2 ___ 21.1 ___ -5.5 ___ 082 ___ 139 ___ 15.5
harps ___________ 8.2 ___ 18.9 ___ -3.2 ___ 080 ___ 080 ___ 11.0
Bsal ____________ 8.2 ___ 15.1 ___ -3.1 ___ 098 ___ 105 ____ 7.5
jd ______________ 8.1 ___ 21.1 ___ -4.5 ___ 090 ___ 102 ___ 14.2
snowstreams _____ 8.1 ___ 20.7 ___ -2.6 ___ 085 ___ 110 ___ 17.6
talkabout ________ 8.0 ___ 21.7 ___ -4.3 ___ 090 ___ 105 ___ 14.1
traecy.1 _________ 8.0 ___ 19.6 ___ -4.1 ___ 100 ___ 090 ___ 11.2
omicron _________ 8.0 ___ 17.0 ___ -3.5 ___ 100 ___ 100 ___ 12.5
200motels _______ 7.9 ___ 23.8 ___ -5.9 ___ 075 ___ 105 ___ 13.6
lostinashford _____ 7.9 ___ 16.7 ___ -1.5 ___ 081 ___ 094 ___ 12.3
okla ____________ 7.8 ___ 21.9 ___ -6.7 ___ 090 ___ 120 ___ 13.6

Con Sensus ______ 7.8 ___ 19.2 ___ -4.0 ___ 089 ___ 105 ___ 12.5

Strasser _________ 7.8 ___ 19.4 ___ -3.8 ___ 090 ___ 095 ___ 13.4
Rebelbrowser _____ 7.8 ___ 18.0 ___ -2.6 ___ 088 ___ 111 ___ 14.9
kindredspirit ______ 7.8 ___ 18.0 ___ -3.0 ___ 082 ___ 118 ___ 10.0
Rickylovesuall _____ 7.5 ___ 20.5 ___ -4.5 ___ 090 ___ 120 ___ 13.0
Hammer Archer ___ 7.5 ___ 15.2 ___ -4.3 ___ 094 ___ 086 ___ 11.0
Jerry Seinfeld _____ 7.2 ___ 19.5 ___ -3.5 ___ 085 ___ 105 ___ 11.0
Pauldry __________ 7.2 ___ 18.0 ___ -3.0 ___ 080 ___ 102 ___ 19.0
Tae laidir _________ 7.1 ___ 18.9 ___ -1.6 ___ 078 ___ 086 ___ 11.5
delw (-10) ________ 7.0 ___ 21.0 ___ -3.0 ___ 090 ___ 093 ___ 15.0
Seafields (-5) _____ 7.0 ___ 17.5 ___ -4.5 ___ 050 ___ 125 ___ 12.6
DOCARCH ________ 6.8 ___ 19.3 ___ -4.6 ___ 097 ___ 108 ___ 12.4
mickger844posts ___ 6.8 ___ 17.1 ___ -4.1 ___ 068 ___ 121 ___ 12.1
H2UMrsRobinson ___ 6.7 ___ 17.2 ___ -3.8 ___ 089 ___ 078 ___ 11.1
dexter647 ________ 6.6 ___ 18.7 ___ -5.1 ___ 072 ___ 078 ___ 15.1
Bejubby __________ 6.5 ___ 12.0 ___ -5.0 ___ 080 ___ 080 ___ 8.0
rameire (-5) ______ 6.1 ___ 18.0 ___ -2.5 ___ 085 ___ 107 ____ 8.1
dasa29 ___________6.0 ___ 19.0 ___ -5.0 ___ 085 ___ 110 ___ 16.0

Speak Now

Gurteen -4.5c this morning.

Speak Now

Casement -4.6c

M.T. Cranium

Markree could come in lower, but hasn't posted data yet for the 3rd. I saw them at -5 on hourly reports both nights (3rd and 4th early morning).

(edit ... also -5 there at 0400h Friday)

Speak Now

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Markree could come in lower, but hasn't posted data yet for the 3rd. I saw them at -5 on hourly reports both nights (3rd and 4th early morning).

(edit ... also -5 there at 0400h Friday)

Showing -6 at 0700h.

Joe Public

Mullingar was showing -6C at one stage last night.

Joe Public

The low for Mullingar on the 6th was -6.6C, unlikely this will be beaten during the rest of the month.

Okla is closest with -6.7C with MTC a length behind on 6.0C

But as we all know, the final outcome depends on Met Eireann's monthly report. As long as we don't have to depend on our Lotto with two different numbers on the same ball then all will be above board :-)


.

M.T. Cranium

I think everyone is still in the hunt at this point, with the IMT at (approx) 4.6 C and rainfall barely 50% if that, with only a few stations having received about the normal amount for the first twelve days, and most others still rather dry. There has also been a fair amount of sunshine with quite variable amounts in the long-range forecast period. I have the feeling that we would still get quite a range of forecasts if people could restart today. But it will have to "go some" to get above consensus from here in either the IMT or rainfall. I would also say the MAX is wide open but we're probably looking at a modified version of mercy rule for the MIN with the odd feature of having the highest score perhaps increased by one point (from 18 to 19 that is). I'm not sure yet what will qualify there having missed seeing some of the lowest values aside from Mullingar's -6.6 report. One thing that seems certain, we have not yet seen the MAX.

Speak Now

Bonus looks like 12.7c

Joe Public

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Bonus looks like 12.7c

Should have been Shannon

M.T. Cranium

The IMT is now on 6.4 C and appears headed up further at a slow and somewhat erratic pace.

Precip has reached normal to about 105% for the period and may back off that slightly.

Sunshine in the past week has been about 80% but an earlier surplus means we are now at about 120%. This could fall slightly.

I expect the MAX will be established next week, have not seen anything over 16 C so far, but see potential for 17 or 18 at least.

Jpmarn

Cork Airport reported a high of 17.6c yesterday.

Joe Public

And Roches Point 17.8C - should be higher today

M.T. Cranium

Update on IMT, 6.9 C after 22nd, estimated 7.1 C after today. May peak at this value then fall back slightly to finish near 6.8.

The rainfall has been generally right on the normal pace, some stations are running ahead, some back around 50% but the average looks to be closing in on something like 95 to 100 per cent.

Sunshine has picked up a bit from the previous week but probably not quite enough to sustain the previously reported average due to that very sunny first week, so about 110% now.

I suspect today will provide our MAX and we can pretty much assume the MIN has already been established (at what value in the hands of the MS but you can assume mercy rule scoring for all but perhaps high score).

pauldry

cork got to 17.9c today

Speak Now

Moorepark got 18.7

Tae laidir

Looks like Con has returned to form!