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6N: Wales v England, Sat 16th March 1700 RTÉ/BBC
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14-03-2013 3:38pm#1ENGLAND:
VS 
A Goode; C Ashton, M Tuilagi, B Barritt, M Brown; O Farrell, B Youngs; J Marler, T Youngs, D Cole, J Launchbury, G Parling, T Croft, C Robshaw, T Wood.
Replacements: D Hartley, D Wilson, M Vunipola, C Lawes, J Haskell, D Care, T Flood, B Twelvetrees.
WALES:
Leigh Halfpenney, Alex Cuthbert, Jonathan Davies, Jamie Roberts, George North, Dan Biggar, Mike Phillips, Gethin Jenkins (Capt), Richard Hibbard, Adam Jones, Alun Wyn-Jones, Ian Evans, Sam Warburton, Justin Tipuric, Toby Faletau
Replacements: Ken Owens, Paul James, Scott Andrews, Andrew Coombs, Aaron Shingler, Lloyd Williams, James Hook, Scott Williams
Last week was arguably the worst performance of Stuart Lancaster’s short but impressive reign over this England team, and an improved performance against Wales will not only be desirable, but essential. Given what is at stake, you would expect a backlash, but it is worth remembering the last time England went away from Twickenham in search of a Grand Slam 2 years ago, when they found themselves on the receiving end of a 24-8 licking by Ireland. The current England team however does appear to have a good mix of those were there that day and will be looking for retribution, and those who will be free of the baggage that comes with such a disappointing experience. 10 of the matchday squad from the game in Dublin are in the 23 who travel to Cardiff this weekend, with the remaining 13 not bearing the scars of what was a testing day for English rugby. Among that number is Captain Chris Robshaw, who that weekend in 2011 was playing LV Cup rugby for Harlequins, captaining the side from number 8. His rapid progress symptomatic of how Lancaster has ushered in the next generation with surprising ease and effectiveness. It is easy to forget this is only Robshaw’s 12th international cap, even Peter O’Mahony has more appearances for his country than the England captain.
Wales will be high on confidence after their 3rd victory in a row, and although Scotland and Italy didn’t provide the sternest test, all three games were away from home. Returning to Cardiff they will find themselves fighting to retain the Championship, something that seemed so implausible at 30-3 down after 43 minutes against Ireland on the opening weekend, before launching a stirring 2nd half performance that left the Irish scrambling. One catalyst for this second half blitzkrieg was the introduction of Justin Tipuric on 44 minutes, and the Tipuric-Warburton-Faletau backrow we saw that day will be revived on Saturday for the first time since, and will certainly look to gain the upper hand on Robshaw and co., with Lions places aplenty up for grabs.
Owen Farrell’s right boot and Welsh Discipline:
The English have scored just one (dubious) try in the 3 games since their opening weekend rout of Scotland, and while it would be simplistic to say England are without attacking threat (see M. Tuilagi), the foundations of most of their victories thus far has been punishing the opposition’s ill-discipline through the metronomic Owen Farrell. Discipline will undoubtedly have been the buzzword in the Welsh camp all week, any indiscretion in their own half leaves them liable to conceding 3 points, and with two opensides in their backrow they will be more than competitive at the breakdown, so playing within the laws (or at least within referee Steve Walsh’s interpretation) will be key.
In the Ireland-England game, Ireland conceded 1 less penalty than England over the course of the game, yet England had 6 shots at goal compared to Ireland’s 3. Again, in the France-England game, England gave away 1 more penalty than France, but had 7 shots at goal to France’s 4. Stats can prove anything of course, and this could be attributed to a number of factors, but it is clear that England will thrive if Welsh ill-discipline gives them a platform. If Welsh discipline is good, English frustration will build, and the onus will be on their backline to create, something that will not come easily against a well-drilled Welsh defence.
The Breakdown:
It’s a huge part of every match, but it will be of particular interest on Saturday with the Welsh backrow so skilled in this area. Tipuric and Warburton will be over the ball all match, and the announcement of Gethin Jenkins’ return will not have been warmly received in the English camp. England’s perennial problem over the last few years has been the failure to generate quick ball, and it will be a testament of just how far this England team has progressed if they can negate the influence of the Welsh fetchers. Howley has been heavily criticised in his time as Welsh coach, but I think his decision to target the breakdown is absolutely the right call, and if he is a championship winning coach at 8PM on Saturday, Welsh dominance at the breakdown could well be one reason why.
Centres:
Aside from the battle of the backrow, another important head-to-head will be between the centres. All 4 will have Lions aspirations, and as with so many other players in the pitch, this will be a huge day for any of those who want to be on the plane to Australia. The fact Barritt and Roberts have been in many pundits predicted Lions’ teams is perhaps an indicator as to the distinct lack of quality 12s in the Home Nations. Roberts hasn’t looked anything like the player who dovetailed so perfectly with BOD on the 2009 tour, and Barritt for all his excellence in defence is always going to be a limited player when it comes to an elite unit like the Lions. Tuilagi is surely a certainty for the plane, and right now would be a favourite to be in the starting team. He will again be crucial for England’s attacking game which will rely on the creativity or linebreaking ability of one player to get them moving, and Tuilagi supplies the latter in abundance. Jonathan Davies had a day he would rather forget against the king of outside centres in the first match in Cardiff, but he is still a talented operator, and if he shows up well against Tuilagi on Saturday not only will he greatly enhance his Lions chances, he’ll give his side a more than decent chance of taking home the championship for the second year in a row.
Prediction:
Predicting a game like this is little more than pure guesswork, but I’ll go for the slightly anticlimactic result of Wales by 1-7 points, giving England the championship but depriving them of the Grand Slam.12
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trouttrout wrote: »This is going to be a tedious affair. I really hope no one in the SH watches
I will be watching! Although technically, I am in the NH
...although you might be right, at 5am NZ time, I'm not sure anyone will be watching...0 -
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The roof is closed - it's raining quite heavily outside.
Those team photos aren't very flattering - especially the forwards e.g. Gethin Jenkins (Welsh #1 & captain) has a nose like Lord Voldemort.
From out there on the moon, international politics look so petty. You want to grab a politician by the scruff of the neck and drag him a quarter of a million miles out and say, ‘Look at that, you son of a bitch’.
— Edgar Mitchell, Apollo 14 Astronaut
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ph_qG5NYbUc
) 
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