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6N: Wales v England, Sat 16th March 1700 RTÉ/BBC

  • 14-03-2013 2:38pm
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,636 ✭✭✭✭


    Wales.png VS England.png
    ENGLAND:
    A Goode; C Ashton, M Tuilagi, B Barritt, M Brown; O Farrell, B Youngs; J Marler, T Youngs, D Cole, J Launchbury, G Parling, T Croft, C Robshaw, T Wood.
    Replacements: D Hartley, D Wilson, M Vunipola, C Lawes, J Haskell, D Care, T Flood, B Twelvetrees.

    WALES:
    Leigh Halfpenney, Alex Cuthbert, Jonathan Davies, Jamie Roberts, George North, Dan Biggar, Mike Phillips, Gethin Jenkins (Capt), Richard Hibbard, Adam Jones, Alun Wyn-Jones, Ian Evans, Sam Warburton, Justin Tipuric, Toby Faletau
    Replacements: Ken Owens, Paul James, Scott Andrews, Andrew Coombs, Aaron Shingler, Lloyd Williams, James Hook, Scott Williams

    Last week was arguably the worst performance of Stuart Lancaster’s short but impressive reign over this England team, and an improved performance against Wales will not only be desirable, but essential. Given what is at stake, you would expect a backlash, but it is worth remembering the last time England went away from Twickenham in search of a Grand Slam 2 years ago, when they found themselves on the receiving end of a 24-8 licking by Ireland. The current England team however does appear to have a good mix of those were there that day and will be looking for retribution, and those who will be free of the baggage that comes with such a disappointing experience. 10 of the matchday squad from the game in Dublin are in the 23 who travel to Cardiff this weekend, with the remaining 13 not bearing the scars of what was a testing day for English rugby. Among that number is Captain Chris Robshaw, who that weekend in 2011 was playing LV Cup rugby for Harlequins, captaining the side from number 8. His rapid progress symptomatic of how Lancaster has ushered in the next generation with surprising ease and effectiveness. It is easy to forget this is only Robshaw’s 12th international cap, even Peter O’Mahony has more appearances for his country than the England captain.

    Wales will be high on confidence after their 3rd victory in a row, and although Scotland and Italy didn’t provide the sternest test, all three games were away from home. Returning to Cardiff they will find themselves fighting to retain the Championship, something that seemed so implausible at 30-3 down after 43 minutes against Ireland on the opening weekend, before launching a stirring 2nd half performance that left the Irish scrambling. One catalyst for this second half blitzkrieg was the introduction of Justin Tipuric on 44 minutes, and the Tipuric-Warburton-Faletau backrow we saw that day will be revived on Saturday for the first time since, and will certainly look to gain the upper hand on Robshaw and co., with Lions places aplenty up for grabs.

    Owen Farrell’s right boot and Welsh Discipline:

    The English have scored just one (dubious) try in the 3 games since their opening weekend rout of Scotland, and while it would be simplistic to say England are without attacking threat (see M. Tuilagi), the foundations of most of their victories thus far has been punishing the opposition’s ill-discipline through the metronomic Owen Farrell. Discipline will undoubtedly have been the buzzword in the Welsh camp all week, any indiscretion in their own half leaves them liable to conceding 3 points, and with two opensides in their backrow they will be more than competitive at the breakdown, so playing within the laws (or at least within referee Steve Walsh’s interpretation) will be key.

    In the Ireland-England game, Ireland conceded 1 less penalty than England over the course of the game, yet England had 6 shots at goal compared to Ireland’s 3. Again, in the France-England game, England gave away 1 more penalty than France, but had 7 shots at goal to France’s 4. Stats can prove anything of course, and this could be attributed to a number of factors, but it is clear that England will thrive if Welsh ill-discipline gives them a platform. If Welsh discipline is good, English frustration will build, and the onus will be on their backline to create, something that will not come easily against a well-drilled Welsh defence.

    The Breakdown:

    It’s a huge part of every match, but it will be of particular interest on Saturday with the Welsh backrow so skilled in this area. Tipuric and Warburton will be over the ball all match, and the announcement of Gethin Jenkins’ return will not have been warmly received in the English camp. England’s perennial problem over the last few years has been the failure to generate quick ball, and it will be a testament of just how far this England team has progressed if they can negate the influence of the Welsh fetchers. Howley has been heavily criticised in his time as Welsh coach, but I think his decision to target the breakdown is absolutely the right call, and if he is a championship winning coach at 8PM on Saturday, Welsh dominance at the breakdown could well be one reason why.

    Centres:

    Aside from the battle of the backrow, another important head-to-head will be between the centres. All 4 will have Lions aspirations, and as with so many other players in the pitch, this will be a huge day for any of those who want to be on the plane to Australia. The fact Barritt and Roberts have been in many pundits predicted Lions’ teams is perhaps an indicator as to the distinct lack of quality 12s in the Home Nations. Roberts hasn’t looked anything like the player who dovetailed so perfectly with BOD on the 2009 tour, and Barritt for all his excellence in defence is always going to be a limited player when it comes to an elite unit like the Lions. Tuilagi is surely a certainty for the plane, and right now would be a favourite to be in the starting team. He will again be crucial for England’s attacking game which will rely on the creativity or linebreaking ability of one player to get them moving, and Tuilagi supplies the latter in abundance. Jonathan Davies had a day he would rather forget against the king of outside centres in the first match in Cardiff, but he is still a talented operator, and if he shows up well against Tuilagi on Saturday not only will he greatly enhance his Lions chances, he’ll give his side a more than decent chance of taking home the championship for the second year in a row.

    Prediction:

    Predicting a game like this is little more than pure guesswork, but I’ll go for the slightly anticlimactic result of Wales by 1-7 points, giving England the championship but depriving them of the Grand Slam.


«134567

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,767 ✭✭✭✭molloyjh


    Excellent write up. If Wales win by 7 though they'll win the championship on tries scored won't they?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,308 ✭✭✭✭.ak


    One of these kind of games, please.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,959 ✭✭✭✭scudzilla


    Cannot wait for this game, being a Welshie it's games like this that we live for, a chance to beat 'them', deprive them of a Grand Slam and take the championship out of there hands.

    If only we'd have pulled our fingers out of our arses in the first half against Ireland.

    The atmosphere is sure gonna be special in Cardiff on Sat


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,234 ✭✭✭trouttrout


    This is going to be a tedious affair. I really hope no one in the SH watches


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 45,433 ✭✭✭✭thomond2006


    trouttrout wrote: »
    This is going to be a tedious affair. I really hope no one in the SH watches

    Hopefully the massive occasion will force a good game!


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 609 ✭✭✭English Lurker


    molloyjh wrote: »
    Excellent write up. If Wales win by 7 though they'll win the championship on tries scored won't they?

    As things stand, yes. If England somehow score three tries more than Wales but Wales still win, then they need to win by 8.
    Hopefully the massive occasion will force a good game!

    I admire your optimism.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,631 ✭✭✭Swiwi


    trouttrout wrote: »
    This is going to be a tedious affair. I really hope no one in the SH watches

    I will be watching! Although technically, I am in the NH ;)

    ...although you might be right, at 5am NZ time, I'm not sure anyone will be watching...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,636 ✭✭✭✭Tox56


    molloyjh wrote: »
    Excellent write up. If Wales win by 7 though they'll win the championship on tries scored won't they?

    Ah yes they would, unless England somehow score 2 more tries than Wales (which would be a shared title apparently :confused:)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,631 ✭✭✭Swiwi


    Nice write up Tox! I was a bit green when I saw I had ended up with the anticlimax of Scot v Fra, and you had the 6N showdown to preview :mad:

    Surely Robshaw v Tipuric is a key clash; also which TH comes out on top - Jones or Cole, and I really hope the Welsh wings make the English back 3 tackle!


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,266 Mod ✭✭✭✭CatFromHue


    I think Wales will win this as they can score tries and don't give away that many penalties.

    Wales have conceded 37 penalties so far compared to the 50 penalties England have been awarded so far in the comp. Wales's penalty spread is 8 against Ireland, 8 against France, 9 against Italy, and 12 against Scotland. In Englands two best wins of the tournament so far Ireland gave away 14 penalties and France gave away 13. England also only scored one try in those two games, which was kinda lucky and also illegal, and the rest of their points came from penalty goals.

    I can't see Wales giving away anything like those amount of penalties (as Ire and Fra did against Eng) on Saturday and they don't give away tries easily either......Ireland are the last team to score a try against Wales. Wales have also scored tries in every game, even in the flood in Italy!

    Edit: If Wales win by 7 the team with the greater amount of tries scored will win the 6N, Wales have currently scored two more than England.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,631 ✭✭✭Swiwi


    CatFromHue wrote: »
    I think Wales will win this as they can score tries and don't give away that many penalties.

    Wales have conceded 37 penalties so far compared to Englands 38. Not a huge amount in it but Wales's penalty spread is 8 against Ireland, 8 against France, 9 against Italy, and 12 against Scotland. In Englands two best wins of the tournament so far Ireland gave away 14 penalties and France gave away 13. England also only scored one try in those two games, which was kinda lucky and also illegal, and the rest of their points came from penalty goals.

    I can't see Wales giving away anything like those amount of penalties (as Ire and Fra did against Eng) on Saturday and they don't give away tries easily either......Ireland are the last team to score a try against Wales. Wales have also scored tries in every game, even in the flood in Italy!

    Yep, it all comes down to the penalties - if Eng is starved of Farrell 3-pointers, can they create tries? Not after last week I would say, but with better conditions in the (no doubt) covered Millenium stadium, I can't see them being quite so profligate.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,308 ✭✭✭✭.ak


    I think this'll boil down to a cracker tbh. Could be a great advertisement for NH rugby. It's got all the makings for a massive game; championship decider, a well drilled English team with no attacking flare but a massively defensive pack, versus a team of huge, pacey Welsh who'll look to run the ball all day and hopefully turn up the heat that way. Might be tight for a bit, but if one side breaks the line and gets a try it might loosen up then.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,631 ✭✭✭Swiwi


    As things stand, yes. If England somehow score three tries more than Wales but Wales still win, then they need to win by 8.

    This article sums up things quite nicely, by Chris Hewitt in the indo

    http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/rugby/rugby-union/international/six-nations-2013-five-areas-that-england-must-address-to-win-grand-slam-in-cardiff-8530243.html

    Do you reckon you will win?


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,664 ✭✭✭opinionatedfan


    hope wales win, no GS please.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 45,433 ✭✭✭✭thomond2006


    The thought of a smug Dylan Hartley holding the cup... eugh


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,259 ✭✭✭Hunterbiker


    Both teams have a fair chance but you never know how the weight of expectation of a home crowd will affect Wales. They are massively more experienced than England so should rightly be considered favourites relieving England of some of the usual BS about being expected to win.
    England had a huge scare last week and Lancaster is proving to be a cosch who get hold of his players and knock them back on track.
    6 Nations Title and Lions places at stake plus a grand slam chance. Can a game have anymore expectation? Can't wait!

    Have both coaches agreed on closing the roof? I thought both had to agree otherwise it stays open. Anyone know what tge rule is?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭totallegend


    Yeah, the rule is that both teams have to agree to close the roof and England have requested it be closed, so should make for a good atmosphere.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,502 ✭✭✭chris85


    Yeah, the rule is that both teams have to agree to close the roof and England have requested it be closed, so should make for a good atmosphere.

    Have experienced the atmosphere with roof closed in there and it really is incredible.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,076 ✭✭✭✭bnt


    The roof is closed - it's raining quite heavily outside.

    Those team photos aren't very flattering - especially the forwards e.g. Gethin Jenkins (Welsh #1 & captain) has a nose like Lord Voldemort. :p

    You are the type of what the age is searching for, and what it is afraid it has found. I am so glad that you have never done anything, never carved a statue, or painted a picture, or produced anything outside of yourself! Life has been your art. You have set yourself to music. Your days are your sonnets.

    ―Oscar Wilde predicting Social Media, in The Picture of Dorian Gray



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 35,514 ✭✭✭✭efb


    Come on England (I want €20)


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,234 ✭✭✭trouttrout


    Some atmosphere.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,317 ✭✭✭gavmcg92


    f me that was amazing


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 35,514 ✭✭✭✭efb


    THIS IS RUGBY!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,883 ✭✭✭shuffol


    Sly little dig from Ralph at Irish supporters.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,930 ✭✭✭duckysauce


    GWAn Wales


  • Administrators Posts: 54,424 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    Some noise in that place.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,681 ✭✭✭✭P_1


    efb wrote: »
    Come on England (I want €20)

    C'mon Wales I want 200 loaves of heavenly bread :p


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,930 ✭✭✭duckysauce


    1-0 wales for singing


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,317 ✭✭✭gavmcg92


    COME ON WALES!


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,440 ✭✭✭The Aussie


    Wales look up for this game, first 15 minutes will tell a lot.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 8,061 ✭✭✭keith16


    shuffol wrote: »
    Sly little dig from Ralph at Irish supporters.

    What did he say?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 35,514 ✭✭✭✭efb


    P_1 wrote: »
    C'mon Wales I want 200 loaves of heavenly bread :p

    lol


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,939 ✭✭✭ballsymchugh


    duckysauce wrote: »
    1-0 wales for singing

    what is it about england that they seem to shout their anthem all the time?
    always sounds awful.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,308 ✭✭✭✭.ak


    Love when the deciding match falls on the last round. It's game could make up for a pretty poor 6n


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,620 ✭✭✭Heroditas


    shuffol wrote: »
    Sly little dig from Ralph at Irish supporters.

    It really was pathetic. Apples and oranges.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,076 ✭✭✭✭bnt


    According to the BBC live text commnentary:
    England win the Grand Slam if: they win.

    England win the Six Nations if: they lose by six points or fewer OR lose by seven points but outscore Wales by three tries or more.

    Wales win the Six Nations if: they win by seven points and stay ahead on tries scores.

    The title is shared if: Wales win by seven points by but England score two or more tries.

    You are the type of what the age is searching for, and what it is afraid it has found. I am so glad that you have never done anything, never carved a statue, or painted a picture, or produced anything outside of yourself! Life has been your art. You have set yourself to music. Your days are your sonnets.

    ―Oscar Wilde predicting Social Media, in The Picture of Dorian Gray



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,620 ✭✭✭Heroditas


    keith16 wrote: »
    What did he say?


    Something along the lines that the bars were empty about 15 minutes before the game and all the fans were in their seats creating an atmosphere.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,930 ✭✭✭duckysauce


    .ak wrote: »
    Love when the deciding match falls on the last round. It's game could make up for a pretty poor 6n

    yep Week one was great rest was dire


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,308 ✭✭✭✭.ak


    Goode handing the ball to the camera man. Hahah.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 8,061 ✭✭✭keith16


    Brilliant atmosphere


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  • Administrators Posts: 54,424 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    There really is a serious amount of noise. Very impressive.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,930 ✭✭✭duckysauce


    Roof closed it adds big time to noise factor


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 27,833 ✭✭✭✭ThisRegard


    duckysauce wrote: »
    1-0 wales for singing

    On BBC the atmosphere is great, it's somewhat lost on RTE.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,079 ✭✭✭leakyboots


    Great stadium, real cathedral of rugby


  • Administrators Posts: 54,424 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    FFS this bloody scrum.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,620 ✭✭✭Heroditas


    Walsh screws up already.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,930 ✭✭✭duckysauce


    wonder if we could throw a few sheets of plastic over the Aviva


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,079 ✭✭✭leakyboots


    Wales targeting Farrell from the off


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,930 ✭✭✭duckysauce


    go on Penny


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,631 ✭✭✭Swiwi


    Heroditas wrote: »
    Walsh screws up already.

    Please elaborate.


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