Milan - San Remo - Sunday March 17 [Contains Spoilers]

Chips Lovell

So, first of the monuments up on Sunday. Who do we think will win?

Poll on the way...

Provisional and incomplete start list is here:
http://www.cyclingfever.com/editie.html?detp=view&_ap=startlijst&editie_idd=MjM2Njc=

dave_o_brien

Moreno Moser

The funky chicken. Or forest gump.

Harrybelafonte

Terminator

Decuc500

Moreno Moser

I hope it's not going to be so predictable but I can only see Sagan winning at a canter from a small bunch sprint.

Rastadoyle

Moreno Moser

Sagan for me. the way he climbed in the tirreno was superb

Kav0777

Juan Antonio Flecha

I think Sagan will win it, but Moser impressed me when he won Strade Bianche, so I went for him just to be different. I think both Hushovd and Cancellara are looking good too.

niceonetom

Moreno Moser

Commodore 64!

Sagan or Thor... Sagan or Thor...

Sagan. Yeah, definitely Sagan.

griffin100

At 33-1 on PP Thor (and Nibali) are not bad e/w bets.

Chips Lovell

Moreno Moser

For me Sagan is the red hot favourite. I'm struggling to remember actually when the last time someone went into this race as hotly tipped, maybe when Zabel was in his pomp.

Sagan has got it all. He can sprint, he can climb, he can motor. While people have talked about whether Gilbert or Cancellara could win all five monuments, Sagan to me is emerging as the guy mostly likely to accomplish that in the current peloton.

He's is still only 23, so barring injury, he's only going to get stronger in the coming years. But over the past year we've seen him develop so much, adding a degree of canniness to all that raw talent. The young rider we saw in Flanders last year blowing his lights riding alone into the wind in a desperate bid to bridge across to Boonen, Ballan and Pozzato is disappearing quickly.

The favourite's mantle is going to weigh heavily though and he'll be heavily marked. Sagan will use his team to drive the pace on the climbs and burn off some of the purer sprinters. But, as we saw the weekend before last, Cannondale won't be afraid to play other cards, such as sending Moreno Moser up the road and making other teams do the work.

Monday's stage on the Tirreno - Adriatico was a perfect dress rehearsal for Sagan. On the final, ridiculously steep hill, while climbers were wilting all around him, Sagan was there beasting his bike up the incline, looking for all the world like he was going to break his cranks. He was near enough the front that when Nibali went, he could go with him, the perfect situation, a small group with two non-sprinters. A repeat of that on Sunday and its game over for everyone else.

But it's a long race and one crash or one missed move and the favourite is out of it. Plenty of other guys are showing some good form recently. Nibali came close last year and is coming off the back of a Tirreno - Adriatico where some aggresive riding netted him the GC. Philippe Gilbert is coming nicely to the boil, but may not be 100 per cent yet since his big targets are later in the Spring. Pozzato, despite his embarrassment at Roma Maxima, has had the best start to a season in ages and Cancellara is a perennial threat, although he really needs to get away on his own to ensure a win.

The dark horse for me is Hushovd. While we were all swooning over Sagan on Monday, what few people noticed was that the other guy with a big arse who made it over that final climb was Thor and he finished 9th on the stage. He had a miserable year last year, but seems to be on the way back.

dave_o_brien

Moreno Moser

I agree. He can stick with the guys who are fast but will attempt to go from far, the Cancellara's and Boonen's of this world, can climb with almost anyone (remember the stage of the tour he won last year?), can rip up the short steep ones like Gilbert and can sprint with the likes of Cav and Griepel. Mark him out of it like they have to Cancellara, and he'll only have you in the sprint. Drop him on the climb? G'luck with that.

Harrybelafonte

I didn't get to watch Tirreno - Adriatico so glad to hear Thor on his way back, but watching how Cannondale have been working as a team (in Paris-Nice), I'd still go for Sagan.

happytramp

Moreno Moser

Unbelievable! It seems 11 people so far accidentally mis-clicked while trying to select the Sagan option.

Chips Lovell

Moreno Moser

Tried to sign up to Paddy Power to see what odds I'd get on Sagan becoming the first rider since Merckx in 1975 to do the MSR/Flanders double.

Couldn't figure it out how to do it at all.

Will have to get my girlfriend to explain it to me when I get home.

buffalo

Moreno Moser

Vladimir Kurtains wrote: »

Tried to sign up to Paddy Power to see what odds I'd get on Sagan becoming the first rider since Merckx in 1975 to do the MSR/Flanders double.

Not bad odds - he's 3/1 for MSR, 11/8 for Flanders. So a euro on the double will get you €9.50 winnings.

Chips Lovell

Moreno Moser

buffalo wrote: »

Not bad odds - he's 3/1 for MSR, 11/8 for Flanders. So a euro on the double will get you €9.50 winnings.

So, ummm, what do I click?

buffalo

Moreno Moser

Vladimir Kurtains wrote: »

So, ummm, what do I click?

Go into the Cycling->MSR, click on Sagan. Little window appears on the right - that's your current bets. Then go into cycling->Flanders, click on Sagain again. It'll add Flanders to your current bets.

Underneath the two bets you can enter two singles, or go for the double.

mistermatthew

Greg Van Avermaet

Looks like it's gonna be a classic. The favourites all add something different, and likely each a unique tactic to win it. It should be a great super aggressive race, I've gone for Thor as He looked impressive at Tirreno climbing and if Thor is climbing well then a lot of people better watch out including the Manchild Sagan.

Cancellara win wouldn't surprise me, but I'm not sure what his forms like after last year although he looked good in the tt on (monday?). And he is getting old, but also he's fabian cancellara, and we've all seen him do it all before.

As an outside perhaps Dagenkolb. The man is impressive, dunno if he has form at the moment though.

ROK ON

Geraint Thomas

EBH.
Sky's dominance if everything will continue this weekend.
I wouldn't mind if he or GT won. But if Thor or PhilGil won I would be delighted.

omicron

Thor Hushovd

Gilbert at 25/1 seems good value, have him e/w.

Craig06

Simon Gerrans

Nobody think Cav could do it? Very strong team around him this year and I think they could almost dictate the pace of the bunch and not allow a break to get too much time and reel them back in.

buffalo

Moreno Moser

Craig06 wrote: »

Nobody think Cav could do it? Very strong team around him this year and I think they could almost dictate the pace of the bunch and not allow a break to get too much time and reel them back in.

He's a one-trick pony. It's an excellent trick, and he's the best in the world at it, but still - we saw at the Olympics, when the road goes up, he can't keep the pace.

sy

Jurgen Roelandts

Have to agree with Vlad. Sagan is potentially the most complete classics rider (at 23!) since Kelly and has the potential to win any of the monuments over his career. Roubaix may take a few more years. He is rightly red hot favourite for MSR but in these great races anything can happen. It will be interesting to see how he handles the pressure and I think Hushovd is the man to squeeze him all the way. As for Cancellara I really think he is bluffing and definitely keeping his hand close to his chest. Being a red hot favourite has done little for his chances in the past so I expect him to go well in the first three monuments. Gerrans is going well too and the one guy who could put it up to Sagan in a straight up sprint. Pozzato is no finishing slouch either and Nibali has become stronger and cagier than last year. He will try and get away on the Poggio and use his superior bike handling skills on the descent to stay away ( Sagan might just do the same ) Its been quite a few years since anyone has been strong enough to ride away from the bunch on the Poggio. Here are some links to some of my favourites (Fondriest 1993 Argentin Bugno 1990 and Fignon @5.40 1989 ) but as Argentin found out it doesn't always guarantee victory

Diarmuid

Greg Van Avermaet

buffalo wrote: »

Not bad odds - he's 3/1 for MSR, 11/8 for Flanders. So a euro on the double will get you €9.50 winnings.

I wouldn't take those odds considering Gilbert is 25/1 on San Remo alone!

manwithaplan

Can you do that double? In horse racing, they would be linked bets and a double would not be allowed. Essentially a linked bet is where the first result will affect the price on the second. The effect here is probably marginal (although if he storms up the Poggio and soloes to victory, his price will shorten in RVV) but the principle is the same as backing a horse in a champion hurdle trial and expecting to be allowed place your winnings on it in the CH itself at the pre-trial price. Of course, bookies often offer a consolidated price on linked bets but it is typically shorter that the accumulated odds.

buffalo

Moreno Moser

Diarmuid wrote: »

I wouldn't take those odds considering Gilbert is 25/1 on San Remo alone!

Yeah, but Gilbert isn't Sagan, and therefore not going to win.

buffalo

Moreno Moser

manwithaplan wrote: »

Can you do that double?

You can here anyway. Obviously, if he wins MSR, FVV odds will shorten, but you're forking out your money in advance of MSR, so that's the trade-off. You can wait and see his form, and get the worse odds (if he wins), or take a greater chance now for the bigger payout.

NB: I know sfa about betting really.

carltonleon

Going to go with Matt Goss myself. Think he has an excellent chance

petethedrummer

Though I dislike Team Sky, I'd like to see EBH win it.

How do you counter Sagan if you are an opposing DS? If you send a strong early attack would Cannondale be obliged to do all the chasing or would other favorites' teams assist in the chase.

Sky to send a 1-2 punch with Thomas going early before the Poggio and EBH to spring from the resultant chase group having done no work? I suppose that's cycling tactics 101 but what else is there?

Send your team to the front and drill it to the bottom of the Poggio and deliver your strong man to the hill like you're delivering a sprinter to the line. And see how the cards fall from the resultant mess?

manwithaplan

buffalo wrote: »

Obviously, if he wins MSR, FVV odds will shorten, but you're forking out your money in advance of MSR, so that's the trade-off. You can wait and see his form, and get the worse odds (if he wins), or take a greater chance now for the bigger payout.

That's not really the case. There's no trade off here. You are betting that two things will happen - Sagan will win MSR and Sagan will win RVV. The order in which the events happen is supposed to be immaterial. In this case if Sagan does not win MSR, the bet is already dead. If he does, the winnings go on to RVV. However, you are hoping they will go on at a pre-MSR price, which ignores the fact that the events are linked. You can take the pre-MSR price now but you have to increase your stake if you want the bigger payout. You can't increase your stake by betting on something else that affects the odds. If the PP site lets you do it, obviously lash away (although I would read the small print on the settlement of bets).

This appears to be the small print - obviously the Sagan example is less clear cut:

Related contingencies
•Multiple bets are not accepted where the outcome of one event contributes wholly or partly to the outcome of another.
•If taken in error the bet will be settled at the "special price" for the double at the time of the bet.

Example:
£20/€20 double Chelsea to win the FA Cup semi-final 1-0 @ 7/1 and Chelsea to qualify for the final @ 4/6 is settled as a £20/€20 double at 7/1. (If Chelsea have won 1-0 they have automatically qualified for the final.)
•However, where the related parts of the bet are resolved at different times the bet will be settled as instructed, with the price for the second or subsequent legs being determined at each individual stage.

Example:
A £20/€20 double on Chelsea to win the semi-final of the FA Cup and Chelsea to win the FA Cup outright is settled as instructed with the price for Chelsea to win the FA Cup outright being the next price on offer by Paddy Power after the semi-final has been concluded. Should Chelsea lose either the semi-final or final then the bet is a loser.
•If any bets are accepted in error on the same selection or team to win multiple events we reserve the right to void such bets or to place them at a special price for the multiple as indicated above.

There is at least the possibility that the second leg of the bet would be settled at the post-MSR price but you might get away with it.

Billycake

Edvald Boasson Hagen

Some fantastic photos of past races here. I love the one of super mario crossing the line in celebration - that kit should be mandatory at all races here!!!

http://www.cyclingtips.com.au/2013/03/milan-san-remo-moments-in-history/

buffalo

Moreno Moser

manwithaplan wrote: »

obviously the Sagan example is less clear cut:

But with Sagan, MSR (A) will affect the odds of RVV (B), but A doesn't actually affect B in any practical sense. i.e. it's not the final stage of the TdF and the overall, or a semi-final and a final. He doesn't have to win A to qualify for B, and winning A doesn't give him a home advantage in B, it's only an positive indication of his form and potential.

That's how I see it anyway. Again, disclaimer, never worked in a bookies.

edit: PS I've placed a couple of bets anyway, so I'll let you know how PP settles them!

Flandria

Simon Gerrans

The Peter Sagan Experience - unless OPQS can somehow get Cavendish to the finish with numbers

happytramp

Moreno Moser

buffalo wrote: »

Go into the Cycling->MSR, click on Sagan. Little window appears on the right - that's your current bets. Then go into cycling->Flanders, click on Sagain again. It'll add Flanders to your current bets.

Underneath the two bets you can enter two singles, or go for the double.

Cheers! Set up a Paddy Power account specifically to do this. They give you a free bet up to the value of your first bet. Got €30 on this Double. Get in their Peter

manwithaplan

You'll probably get away with it but the rule on "related contingencies" is that:

you cannot combine two or more events in the one bet when one outcome could affect the price of the other outcome

This is not confined to when the events are materially linked. It need only have a potential effect on the price. They actually mention baseball matches on consecutive nights where different pitchers start as an exception to this - apparently having a different pitcher is akin to it being two different teams. My guess is that cycling is such a small market and the fields are so big that they let these things slide a bit. I'd say you would have no chance on doubling up Man U to win their next two matches (in fact they probably don't even price the second one up in advance).

Edit - an example from another site:

Note: related contingencies

You need to be careful if you take the same selection to win more than one event. A bookmaker will not accept a bet where the first result has a direct bearing on the second. For example, if at the start of the flat season a horse was quoted at 8/1 to win the 2,000 Guineas and 12/1 to win the Derby and you wanted to back this in a double the bookmaker would not give you 8/1 and 12/1. The odds he would give you would be less than the odds combined in a double. The reason for this is that success in the first event would increase its' chances in the second. This is know as a related contingency.

Just in case there's any confusion, a horse does not need to win the 2,000 Guineas to qualify for the Derby!

TheBlaaMan

Moreno Moser

:mad: Why do so many threads on here descend into the pits of fcuking booking odds and betting........ Clearly, some guys are really into this and regard it as 'just a bit of fun', but not all do. Its impossible to get away from "Betfair this, Paddy Power that", these days, but not everyone on here is stupid enough to keep feeding these monsters.

rant over

Chips Lovell

Moreno Moser

Cancellera is looking for revenge. He's still very sore about this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_4JKItH992g

ednwireland

Moreno Moser

Vladimir Kurtains wrote: »

Cancellera is looking for revenge. He's still very sore about this:

why ? cancellera got beaten fair and square if he was so bothered he should have sat up, sagan rode to win - end of

ebh sat in and didnt come round cancellara, wasnt strong enough and i'd expect the same result on sunday if the same three are off with 1km to go

Chips Lovell

Moreno Moser

ednwireland wrote: »

why ? cancellera got beaten fair and square if he was so bothered he should have sat up, sagan rode to win - end of

Exactly. He was out-raced by Sagan. But he still seems to think it was unfair somehow.

niceonetom

Moreno Moser

Vladimir Kurtains wrote: »

Exactly. He was out-raced by Sagan. But he still seems to think it was unfair somehow.

I didn't get the feeling he thought it was unfair per se, more ungentlemanly. And I'm guessing that it wasn't so much Sagan's victory as his celebration that Cancellara would deem a bit fcuking cheeky.

Fabian has more old fashioned view than his age really gives him a right to, most especially when he's in yellow. There's no other rider in the current peloton as likely to cast themselves as patron, as we've seen in 2011 (I think) when he deemed a perfectly ridable stage unacceptable when one of the Schlecks dumped it as they are wont to do. He seems to think that he is owed more respect than Sagan gave him but being owed respect and being owed a win are very different things.

I also think there a residue of the time-trialist's mentality there - I have the biggest engine, I worked the hardest, therefore I should win. Obviously that doesn't work in real races.

Sagan's utter lack of respect for the reputations of his rivals is probably one of the cornerstones of his success. He's sees no reason why he shouldn't beat Cav in a straight up sprint and be able to mash up a (shortish) slope with Contador or Nibali and that's where confidence is indistinguishable from impudence. And that's why the fans love him.

A word of warning though: the boy's a heartbreaker. I really hope we don't ever have to look back at these youtubes and see them in another light. Never fall in love in whorehouse.

petethedrummer

so come on, someone tell me how you go about beating Sagan...

ednwireland

Moreno Moser

petethedrummer wrote: »

so come on, someone tell me how you go about beating Sagan...

ride harder and faster than him

DirkVoodoo

Edvald Boasson Hagen

Just brushing up on the odds/form guides and Vlad's nice little overview.

I'm going to put my money on Cancellara. I know he may not be in the best shape he has ever been, and he even said today that he is "starting to feel his age"...at 30! But, I'm going to go with experience seeing him through, he'll pull something out of the bag. He knows when to make his move so I think a Cancellara break away is on the cards. If Gilbert, Hushovd and Sagan go with him then it's over, but I think he has the course knowledge and the racing experience to time it right.

14/1 on PaddyPower anyway. I plan to get rip-roaringly drunk if he wins!

petethedrummer

ednwireland wrote: »

ride harder

Sure he'll just sit on your wheel.

ednwireland wrote: »

and faster than him

Not many can outsprint him.

I need deeper analysis.:pac:

ednwireland

Moreno Moser

petethedrummer wrote: »

I need deeper analysis.:pac:

dont want much do you

i exhausted my cycling tactics knowledge with that

buffalo

Moreno Moser

petethedrummer wrote: »

so come on, someone tell me how you go about beating Sagan...

Get into a break that he misses. Ride until finish. Win.

TheBlaaMan

Moreno Moser

FYI

Race starts at 10:10 local (09:10 GMT)

Live TV coverage due to start at 1:30 GMT on Eurosport UK; there may be earlier options depending on your source, but doesn't look like much is likely to be available before 1pm, even in Italy)
- by 1:30, the leaders - if going at the highest expected pace - are likely to be just short of the km200 mark, already well past the heights of the Turchino Pass and just about to take on Le Manie (km205). If their pace is slower, they may be around km175.

Expected finish in Sanremo is 4:00 - 4:30pm GMT

CptMackey

Moreno Moser

Just after putting a 5 on Thor. At 33 to 1 not to bad. Sagan will prob do it tho.

sy

Jurgen Roelandts

Forgot how difficult that finish in last years Tour was.This is the first time Sagan is red hot favourite to win a monument. It will be interesting to see how he and the team handles it. Cancellara has found that being favourite in past years has brought its extra pressures and as I said before I think he has been careful not to show his true form this. He can only win by dropping everybody on the Poggio and that will not be easy. He tried his best last year but Nibali and Gerrans were up to it. I just think Cancellara wont make the same mistake he made last year and drag the faster finishers to the line. Maybe he will make his move on the Cipressa? ... Speculation speculation ..thats what I love about these big one day races Dirk might just be getting drunk this weekend!
PS I opted for Pozzato as a long shot as he could do a Gerrans on it this year and looking forward to seeing Hushovd in the thick of it again.

DirkVoodoo

Edvald Boasson Hagen

TheBlaaMan wrote: »

:mad: Why do so many threads on here descend into the pits of fcuking booking odds and betting........ Clearly, some guys are really into this and regard it as 'just a bit of fun', but not all do. Its impossible to get away from "Betfair this, Paddy Power that", these days, but not everyone on here is stupid enough to keep feeding these monsters.

rant over

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aGc3ZEBmzEQ

buffalo

Moreno Moser

The pressure and expectation on Sagan is phenomenal! Part of me reckons if he manages to win it with the rest of the peloton watching him, it'll be an even greater achievement... and the rest of me knows that if he wins, most people will think, "well, that was boring. Exactly as expected."

manafana

Moreno Moser

Right so the years longes race is in the morning racing nearly 300km from Milan to San Remo with some bumps in the final third to test the riders. Most big names are their, evans wont race and bouhanni is out after his crash.

<snip>

Course profile:


Sagan is favourite and for good reason who can stop him?