Cheltenham Day 2 Wednesday 13th March 2013

JP Liz V1

Maybe a tad early but let's go

rossom

Write up to come but now that McCain has been a ****ing prick and ruined my antepost bet on Son Of Flicka I think Mr Watson looks a super price at 16/1. Won't be that price come tomorrow.

Colonel Sanders

Does he run in the Pertemps Rossom?

rossom

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Does he run in the Pertemps Rossom?

You'd have to assume so. Stupidest decision ever. He'll carry more weight in the Pertemps, is completely unproven over 3m let alone up the hill and in soft ground. Hope he gets stuffed in it now.

mike65

I'm backing all three Mullins horses in the Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle I think.

Pendra in Coral Cup (Handicap Hurdle)

Sizing Europe without fav Queen Mother Champion Chase

Rule The World in Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle

Gringo180

rossom wrote: »

You'd have to assume so. Stupidest decision ever. He'll carry more weight in the Pertemps, is completely unproven over 3m let alone up the hill and in soft ground. Hope he gets stuffed in it now.

That McCain fella is a mug.

TheMilkyPirate

I'm all over back in focus in the 4 miler, White star line travelled like a dream today and BIF stuffed him a few runs back, Trying to get the 10/3 pp have up but their site is down

dahat

Unionsite at 7/1 with Houblon Des Obeaux at 20/1 in same race..

Fiveforthree at 16/1 but that looks doomed tbh given Ruby has gone for Abbey Lane.

Godismejudge at 10/1 in the 4miler

Point ALex in a trixe with two to run later in the week..

I most likely just do the placepot with a single on Liz Doyles horse in the bumper..

Slattsy

Back in Focus is my only decent bet so far. Should be a class above this lot if Mullins was seriously considering the RSA for him.

akelly02

not a good day for punting tomorrow. i will back union dues in the bumper and the sprinter/ pont alex double pays around 2/1 i think.

3ndahalfof6

1:30 HIGHLAND LODGE

2:05 TWO ROCKERS

2:40 LYREEN LEGEND

3:20 WISHFULL THINKING

4:00 FIVEFORTHREE

4:40 ZAMDY MAN

5:15 SIZING TENNESSEE / CALEDONIA

Inspector Coptoor

1:30 - Back in Focus (3/1)
2:05 - Pont Alexandre (6/4)
2:40 - Boston Bob (4-1)
15:20 - Sprinter Sacre (2/7 to hopefully finished a 4-fold with H Fly, Quevega and Simonsig)
16:00 - Abbey Lane (17/2)
16:40 No bet
17:15 - Le Vent Dantan (7-1) and Sizing Tennessee (e/w at 20-1)

carmanard

At the moment, I'm looking at Rival destruval & Tofino bay in the 4 miler, rule the world/pont alex in the Neptune, lyreen legend/houblon des obeaux in the RSA, sizing & SS in the champion chase, mr watson/Un beau matin in the coral cup & bordoni/south south west in the Fred winter as my placepot permutations. As regards the bumper, I'm probably backing Drumlee & Pure Science e/w, not for large stakes though....

Johner

On Back In Focus at 12/1. Happy enough with that.

dirkmeister

back in focus
pont alexandre (even though I've been reluctant to back him all along)
boston bob
sprinter sacre (waiting on him to finish off doubles and trebles with Simonsig and Quevega)


haven't decided yet on the others, possibly Mr Watson ew

jimjamcos

1:30 - Buddy Bolero 11/2, Rival Destruval 11/2
2:05 - Pont Alexandre 13/8 (in multiple with Simonsig, HF, Quevega, Dynaste)
2:40 - Houblon Des Obeaux 20/1, 16/1, Lyreen Legend 14/1
15:20 - Mail De Brieve W/O SS 5/1
16:00 - Pendra 8/1, Cash And Go 16/1
16:40 - No bet
17:15 - Le Vent Dantan 7/1, Blackmail 14/1, Saver on SGT Reckless 8/1

Shane732

I'm keen on both Back In Focus and Pont Alexandre, which isn't at all surprising seeing as they are both favourite. I'm struggling to convince myself that Willie Mullins can train the first two winners tomorrow as well. It'll just become Willie Mullins vs the rest at this rate.

snowgal

1.30 Godsmejudge (also heathyards flyer each way bet, something about him)
2.05 tworockers
2.40goulanes
3.20 no bet
4.00 master of the sea

That_Guy

Not a particularly easy day for betting. Small each way stakes for interest will the order of the day methinks.

1:30: Hawkes Point (EW)

Going for a double EW bet on the next two races. Rule The World (2:05) and Lyreen Legend (2:40)

3:20: No bet though I'm tempted to stick Sprinter Sacre as part of a double with Salsify.

4:00: Owega Star (EW)

5:15: Blackmail (Win)

Looks a tough day to call on paper so as I've said, small stakes is all I'm prepared to pay for.
Queen Mother Chase looks an awful race. Sizing Europe is the only one I like on paper but I just don't see it challenging whatsoever given his age.

nolottoyet

Back in Focus
Pont Alexandre
Unioniste
Pendra
Le Vent Dantan

EW Acc

snowgal

excuse silly questions but Im a simple beter!? Every year I nearly win accums but just lose out on one maybe and then on the fri I usually do some decent double or treble and win back my losses and abit to spare! 2 things: how come I cant bet on Fridays races on betfair (just joined today usually use PP) and 2: cant remember at the min, it'll come back to me.....

TheMilkyPirate

Could have an excellent day tomorrow or could be broke by the end of it!

€20 win back in focus 10/3
€50 win double pont alex + sprinter sacre
€10 e/w Ericht 16/1
€.50 lucky 15, la vent d'antan, Saphir de reau, Mr watson, Houblon des obeaux
€20 win Saphir de reau 7/1
€10 win la vent d'antan 9/1

Also have doubles and trebles riding on various horses

Mimikyu

This post has been deleted.

Shane732

baraca wrote: »

Could have an excellent day tomorrow or could be broke by the end of it!

€20 win back in focus 10/3
€50 win double pont alex + sprinter sacre
€10 e/w Ericht 16/1
€.50 lucky 15, la vent d'antan, Saphir de reau, Mr watson, Houblon des obeaux
€20 win Saphir de reau 7/1
€10 win la vent d'antan 9/1

Also have doubles and trebles riding on various horses

I read that as a €50 lucky 15 first time round!!

Slattsy

snowgal wrote: »

excuse silly questions but Im a simple beter!? Every year I nearly win accums but just lose out on one maybe and then on the fri I usually do some decent double or treble and win back my losses and abit to spare! 2 things: how come I cant bet on Fridays races on betfair (just joined today usually use PP) and 2: cant remember at the min, it'll come back to me.....

Gimme your phone number and address and i'll tell you what you;re doing wrong in erson.

Slattsy

Slattsy wrote: »

Gimme your phone number and address and i'll tell you what you;re doing wrong in erson.

i thought snowgal was slattsy in disguise:cool:

the bolt

pont alexandre
boston bob
sprinting sacre
le vent dantan
lucky 15 and small bet on sizing europe

20 Times 20 Times

13:30 CHELTENHAM
Horse Racing Outright - Race

BACK IN FOCUS 11/4 EW 1/4 1,2,3 Unsettled

14:05 CHELTENHAM
Horse Racing Outright - Race

PONT ALEXANDRE 6/4 EW 1/4 1,2,3 Unsettled

14:40 CHELTENHAM
Horse Racing Outright - Race

BOSTON BOB 3/1 EW 1/4 1,2,3 Unsettled

15:20 CHELTENHAM
Horse Racing Outright - Race

SPRINTER SACRE 1/4 Standard EW terms apply Unsettled

anyone think mail de bievere is a good bet @ 6/1 in p.p. without s.s. jumped like a stag in his last race over 3 miles, has 2 graded wins in france over 2m6f. t.george and the owners must fancy a place at least to have supplemented it for the c.chase

the groutch

already have Mail De Bievre @ 8/1 (without SS), and 6/1 Pont Alexander, will probably do a punt on Blackmail in the bumper, and a few quid e/w on 543 in the Coral Cup

irishfeen

1.30 Rival Destruval [4/1] EW
2.05 The New One [5/1] EW
2.40 Unioniste [7/2] EW
4.00 Master Of The Sea [12/1] EW
5.15 Blackmail [8/1] Win

... Tomorrow is very hard to call for the most, it could either be a good day or a complete disaster, best of luck to everyone.

mailburner

droidman123 wrote: »

anyone think mail de bievere is a good bet @ 6/1 in p.p. without s.s. jumped like a stag in his last race over 3 miles, has 2 graded wins in france over 2m6f. t.george and the owners must fancy a place at least to have supplemented it for the c.chase

spotted that earlier on bet365
I think it's a very good price and with the obvious exception
of sizing europe I think it can beat the rest
Was jumping for fun and still going great guns with a mile
to go in silviniaco contis last race

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

spotted that earlier on bet365
I think it's a very good price and with the obvious exception
of sizing europe I think it can beat the rest
Was jumping for fun and still going great guns with a mile
to go in silviniaco contis last race

imo sizing europe is the only one to scupper the bet, but 6/1 is tempting.

the groutch

here's hoping Sizing Europe blows out trying to keep up with SS

SRFC

Sizing is evens w/o ss tomorrow,If ss wasnt in this race would you get evens sizing europe? I think not.

hawkeyethenoo

just because this Mail De Bievre jumped like a stag the other day over 3 miles and went out like a light after 2miles people are just assuming h'ell be electric over 2miles. sizing europe will be miles ahead of this donkey.

hawkeyethenoo

the rsa is a shocker tomorrow. could even be worse than the one that pig bostons angel won a few years ago.

UnitedIrishman

Gone for a Mullins double in the first two - Back in Focus and Pont Alexandre. Each way double gives money back if they place.

Others I fancy are:
2.40 - Unioniste
3.20 - Sizing Europe w/o
4.00 - Pendra
4.40 - Saphir de Rheu or Counsel
5.10 - Le Vent D'antan

SRFC

Hold on lads Will racing be on

ft9

SRFC wrote: »

Hold on lads Will racing be on

Inspection at 8am afaik. They are confident it goes ahead.
Fookin better be on

beaker1

John Oaksey National Hunt Chase cheltenham 1:30


Not a strong trends race to kick off the day. I feel it is best to concentrate on the patterns since the race conditions changed notably in 2002. They have been tinkered with twice more since then but the main alterations came 11 years ago. Since then no winner has contested less than three chase starts which puts me off Buddy Bolero, Heathyard’s Flyer and Scampi Boy.

The strongest negative pattern over a longer period of time is that five and six-year-olds are a combined 1-64 since 1989 so on that basis I would struggle to ally myself to Emperor’s Choice.

On the positive trends, the fact that the last two winners contested a Grade 1 tells us what a good race this has become and Back In Focus stands out in this respect having won the same Grade 1 at Leopardstown over 3m at Christmas in which Chicago Grey was unplaced in two years ago before he won this prize. Tofino Bay also contested that race finishing fourth.

Four of the last six winners had run at Cheltenham earlier in the season. The only on this score this season is Highland Lodge who won at the December Meeting.

Short List
Back In Focus
Tofino Bay
Godsmejudge
Highland Lodge

Conclusion

Grade 1 form has come to the fore in the last two years so the Grade 1 winner BACK IN FOCUS is a worthy favourite and has to have a big chance of giving Willie Mullins his first winner in this race as trainer. The ground has also come in his favour and stamina is very much his strong suit. He had TOFINO BAY back in fourth in that Grade 1 but Dessie Hughes’ novice is experienced being a ten-year-old and has won the Troytown Handicap Chase and won a Grade 2 novice chase either side of those runs. I do like some handicap form for this race and then dropping back to taking on fellow novices so GODSMEJUDGE also appeals in that respect having only just been nailed on the line in the £50K Betfred Classic Chase at Warwick takingon experienced handicappers and he has won since and represents the Alan King yard that won this race in 2008. Being the only horse to run in a novice chase at Cheltenham earlier in the season then HIGHLAND LODGE makes the short list and he will like the ground as well as it was heavy when he beat Our Father by 22 lengths on that occasion.




Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle cheltenham 2:05



Very much a race for the leading fancies, 25 of the 27 winners started in the first five in the betting so we should really be concentrating on Pont Alexandre, The New One, Taquin Du Seuil, Rule The World and Chatterbox.

Unfortunately there are no fancies aged over six as there has been no winner since 1974 but it is very easy to strike off horses that failed to finish first or second last tine out as only one of the last 29 winners won with that profile so I would have to be against Minsk and Ubak.

Taquin Du Seuil won the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle in style but all 13 winners of that prize to run here have been beaten. On that basis he is no trends horse but it should be noted that six of those 13 winners did finish second or third here. Most Challow Hurdle are run on testing ground and the winner tends to get found out on better ground at the Festival but we should have Soft ground tomorrow so Taquin Du Seuil is more likely to have his conditions than most Challow winners so it wouldn’t surprise me if that stat is overturned this particular year. That said, he is an ex-Flat horse and this race normally goes the way of jumps-bred contenders (12 of the last 14) though ex-bumper horses would comfortably outnumber their ex-Flat rivals. Minsk would also come from the Flat.

Thirteen of the last 15 winners had been contesting pattern races so Chatterbox would be an unusual winner in this respect as would Ubak.

The Irish have fared well (this is their second best race at the Festival since the early 1970s) winning four of the seven runnings, two of which trained by Willie Mullins who is responsible for the Irish banker of the meeting, Pont Alexandre. Rule The World and Minsk also travel over and the former is interesting as his trainer has had a winner (First Lieutenant) and second (Venalmar) in this race in recent years and Rule The World is a half-brother to Venalmar who won the Slaney Hurdle as did Rule The World. Nigel Twiston-Davies, however, has also won this twice with Gaelstrom and Fundamentalist and he rates The New One in a different class to that pair over hurdles.

Five of the last 14 winners recorded a top-six finish in a Grade 1 bumper. The New One qualifies on that count having finished second in the Weatherbys Champion Bumper before he went on to beat My Tent or Yours into second in the Grade 2 Aintree Bumper at the Grand National Meeting.

Short List

Pont Alexandre
Rule The World
The New One

Conclusion
Of the top five in the betting (they usually dominate this race), Taquin Du Seuil has the Challow Hurdle winner stat to overcome and Chatterbox has not run in a pattern race so that leaves the other three as short list material. PONT ALEXANDRE will be heavily backed to give Willie Mullins a third win in this race in five years and the Navan Hurdle he won in December has been a good guide of late featuring two recent winners, and that would have been three had Oscars Well jumped the final flight okay in the Neptune two years ago. A good race in general for the Irish so RULE THE WORLD also makes appeal, especially hailing from a yard with a winner and close second in this race recently and he is a half-brother to the latter. THE NEW ONE has the bumper stat in his favour (finished in the top six in a Grade 1 bumper) and his yard also know what is required having trained two Neptune winners. The only real negative are doubts about the bug in the stable that have ruled out some of their runners this week.



RSA Chase cheltenham 2:40



No Dynaste means we can’t take on the Feltham winner at a short price yet again this season but maybe we can take on the possible favourite in Boston Bob who, although having stats in his favour, he does only have two chase starts to his name and the last 13 RSA winners have had at least three and some very good horses have tried and failed. He is trained by Willie Mullins though who has three winners and two seconds in this race (and three others were going well when exiting late on) and he won the Dr P J Moriarty Chase (where I am reliably informed he didn’t look particularly fit so can be expected to improve plenty and for the step up to 3m), a race in which three of the last four RSA runners ran in so he has big positives too so it’s a tricky one. Mullins also runs Terminal who is not to be overlooked. Ruby Walsh prefers Unioniste though which has to be negative to his chances Other horses that have not run at least twice over fences are Goulanes (just one start over fences),

Another strong negative stat is that all but one of the last 25 winners finished first or second last time out which is against Real Milan (pulled up), Lord Windermere (3rd) and Lyreen Legend (4th). That said, the last named pair were right on the heels of the first two in the Dr P J Moriarty Chase and ran very well in the race’s best guide

French-breds have only won twice in the last 20 years which is a sticking point against the five-year-old Unioniste. The last five-year-old winner was also trained by Paul Nicholls (Star De Mohaison) and Unioniste won the same novice chase at Aintree as him back in November. He has also contested two of the same novice chases the same yard’s Denman won in his RSA-winning season. Unlike Star De Mohaison though, Unioniste receives just 2lbs unlike back in 2006 when five-years-old received 10lbs. Terminal, Houblon Des Obeaux and Goulanes will also be attempting to improve the record of French-bred.

Six-year-olds have struggled in this stamina test as only two have won since 1978 which is against Lyreen Legend, Terminal, Hadrian’s Approach and Houblon Des Obeaux but mark seven-year-olds up such as Lord Windermere, Vintage Star and Theatrical Star as they have won the last six runnings on the spin.

Only three winners in the last 20 years spent more than one season over hurdles which is against Houblon Des Obeaux only. The strongest trend of late is that the last ten winners had placed at worst in a Grade 1 or 2 race so this is not a contest for Real Milan, Theatrical Star or Unioniste.

Short List

VINTAGE STAR
(LORD WINDERMERE)
(HADRIAN’S APPROACH)

Conclusion

Only one horses survived the negative trends and they are big-priced outsiders so this could be interesting! That horse is VINTAGE STAR who has finished in the first two in all four chase starts but he falls short on pure form but strange things can happen in the RSA Chase and he handles soft ground well so who knows, he could sneak a place at massive odds if you fancy risking a few quid each-way. For the rest of the shortlist, it’s a case of going with what is unlucky not to qualify on just one count. That would be LORD WINDERMERE who only fails for not finishing first or second last time out but he was only beaten less than a length on that occasion by Boston Bob in the best trial and he is a seven-year-old like the last six winners. HADRIAN’S APPROACH gets the final berth. He only fails on age being a six-year-old but he was second in the Feltham (a race in which five horses to finish second, third or fourth went on to win here since 1980) including both of Nicky Henderson’s RSA Chase winners.




Sportingbet.com Queen Mother Champion Chase cheltenham 3:20



Think you might be able to guess who tops the trends-based shortlist here? It could be a case of just watch and admire.

Only one of the last 11 winners had not already a Grade 1 races. Ironically that was the horse that put up the highest rating in Master Minded. I suspect the Sprinter Sacre want to usurp that rating and can see them trying by win by as far as possible. And given his running style of letting him kick on when his jumping takes him to the front earlier than most Champion Chase, he may well put up a monster figure here. Non Grade 1 winners in the line up are Mail De Bierve, Sanctuaire and Wishfull Thinking who have all won Grade 2 races at best. So, it’s not actually a bad race; seven runners of which four have won Grade 1s and three have won Grade 2s as it looked like cutting up to lap of honour at one point.

The 2011 champion, Sizing Europe, would do well to win as an eleven-year-old in a normal year given that there has been only one winner older than ten since 1977 let alone a year when there is a horse like Sprinter Sacre in opposition. That said, that other eleven-year-old had a similar profile being Moscow Flyer who was also an Irish-trained former Arkle winner and former Champion Chase winner attempting to regain his crown after losing the previous season. For me, he has looked more comfortable travelling at 2m4f pace since beaten in this race last season though it should not be overlooked he is unbeaten in the last year and the Irish have won half of the runnings in the last decade.

The last ten winners had run in the calendar year which is against Tataniano. Of course he is also the rank outsider and this is no race to chance a longshot with only one of the last 31 winners starting bigger than 11/1 so this should be a match between Sprinter Sacre and Sizing Europe as it is around 16/1 bar the two. The big two have, of course, won at the Festival before like 18 of the last 28 winners which is something four of their rivals have yet to achieve. Sanctuaire won the Fred Winter when lobbed in off a handicap mark of just 127. Somersby has twice been placed (in the Supreme and Arkle) and Wishfull Thinking was second in the Jewson

Short List

Sprinter Sacre

Conclusion
Apologies that I can’t find an alternative at very short odds to SPRINTER SACRE but he is the only horse that doesn’t fail any of the negative trends and, to top it off, he won the best guide in the Tingle Creek (8 of the last 12 Champion Chase winners ran in that race) and won the Arkle like six winners since 1993 and all 13 to run the next season have been placed which is some going as more than otherwise would not have started favourite. Sizing Europe is the obvious horse to finish second on his overall form and Cheltenham record though I would temper that with the fact they will be all out trying to get Sprinter Sacre beaten whereas others in the race will be mindful of that and ridden to pick up the pieces and hopefully sneak into second as a result. Somersby is often the bridesmaid so appeals in this respect and he has twice placed at the meeting before, handles soft ground, stays further and his connections have said he will be ridden for second so maybe he is of interest in a market without the favourite. I expect Wishfull Thinking to be ridden the same way as he has one burst according to Richard Johnson after he finished late to win the Game Spirit Chase but he is such an in-and-out horse he is hard to predict. It will be interesting to see what happens up front, whether Sanctuaire will revert to front running tactics and, if so, will he and the supplemented Mail De Bierve suffer in a battle for early supremacy. Somersby or Wishfull Thinking without Sprinter Sacre makes some appeal if you, like most, don’t fancy the very short price about what looks an outstanding racehorse.



Coral Cup cheltenham 4:00


All 19 runnings since this handicap was first run were rated no higher than 147 so that is a big statistical negative for the top five in the weights Any Given Day, Sadler’s Risk, Crack Away Jack, Fiveforthree and Medinas to overcome. Eleven of the last 12 winners carried no more than 11st 2lbs so that would statistically also count against Black Thunder, Bondage, Cash And Go and Meister Eckhart. The other notable negative pattern concerns age as horses aged 10+ are 0-23 since 1999 so that is a second stat against Fiveforthree.

The strongest recent positive pattern is that second-season hurdlers have won 6 of the last 8 runnings which brings in Sadler’s Risk, Medinas, Black Thunder, Bondage, Cash And Go, Meister Eckhart, Un Beau Matin, Loose Chips, Owega Star, Hollow Tree, Barbatos, Tour D’Argent, Big Easy, Urbain De Sivola and Ericht.

I also like the angle that as many as 10 of the last 12 winners had not won any more than one handicap hurdle. Clearly the less handicap wins, the lesser chance the Handicapper can get a grip on their true ability. That, or the horse just has trouble winning so therefore why would it be of interest anyway? That said 14 of the last 19 winners had won earlier in the season which is against the top four in the weights whi are already up against it on ratings stats as well as Black Thunder, Cash And Go, Meister Eckhart, Hollow Tree, Barbatos, Tour D’Argent, Big Easy, Timesawaistin, Wyse Hill Teabags and Orsippus.

I do like an freshness angle and only three horses in the last four years to finish in the first four had run more than three times earlier in the season.

Finally, respect the Irish. Seven wins in 19 years is some going for a handicap where they are outnumbered and their contenders this year are Fiveforthree, Bondage, Rattan, Un Beau Matin, Owega Star and Abbey Lane. J P McManus owns the novice, Pendra, and he has owned two winners and a second.

Short List

Un Beau Matin
Bondage
Owega Star
Urbain De Sivola
Ericht

Conclusion

Second-season hurdlers with less than one handicap hurdle win appeal as do the Irish and three fit the bill headed by UN BEAU MATIN for the Gordon Elliott yard that won this race two years ago in the same ownership. He has been running in Grade 2 races on his last two starts and running in a big field handicap can bring the best out in him. I wouldn’t knock his stable mate either BONDAGE who is also a second season hurdler plus also a course and distance winner and I like the lack of a run (115 days) as a number of winners have won this race off a longish absence to protect their handicap mark. OWEGA STAR is a third Irish-trained second-season hurdler that could go under the radar a little not being from a top yard. He was second to Un Beau Matin earlier in the season before also going down the pattern-race route and is interesting now dropped back to handicaps. URBAIN DE SIVOLA has only had one run in Britain since he was midfield in last season’s Triumph Hurdle as Nick Williams has been campaigning him in France and, going with the freshness angle, he has not run since the Ladbroke Hurdle and, from a personal perspective, I think he is interesting moving up to 2m5f. He has run over 2m4f once but that was in a Grade 1 in France two years ago. ERICHT completes the short list. Another second season hurdler (though he is officially a novice), Nicky Henderson’s charge was favourite for the Weatherbys Champion Bumper two years ago and is in grand form now winning his last two starts.





Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle cheltenham 4:40



The stat I like most is that seven of the eight winners were beaten on their first two starts over hurdles which always helps with a horse’s handicap mark. And especially when you then combine that with having run the minimum of three times to qualify (like 6 of the 8 winners) so then winning on their final start (like 5 of the 8 winners) becomes critical.

Ideally our selection will also have had a recent prep run as 7 of the last 8 winners ran in the last 25 days but it would be churlish to throw out a horse purely on that stat providing that last run wasn’t too far over that 3½ weeks.

French-breds/imports have won 5 of the 8 runnings. Some punters believe they get in too easily off their French marks though the official Handicapper would dispute that but you can’t ignore their record.

Regards the Irish challenge, it is interesting to note both of their winners were maidens over hurdles and their challenge this year comprises of Blood Cotil, Fatcatinthehat and Kalmann representing Willie Mullins plus South South West, Flazen Flare, Habesh and Ibsen so a decent turnout. Of those, Ibsen is a maiden.

The top rated horse on the Flat has a remarkable record winning three times and also supplying a runner-up.

Short List

SAPHIR DE RHEU
HABESH
MEGALYPOS
IBSEN
FATCATINTHEHAT

Conclusion
In short, I want to be looking at horses with three hurdle runs to their name that ideally were beaten on their first two hurdles starts but won last time out so SAPHIR DE RHEU tops the list as one of two qualifiers on all three scores. In fact he has an almost identical profile to Sanctuaire who bolted up in this race who also was beaten on his first two hurdles starts for the same yard having also been a French import and then also won last time out at the same course (Taunton). HABESH also fits the profile (three runs, beaten on the first two, winner of the last) at a much bigger price and is interesting as he hasn’t run over hurdles since September (to protect his mark?) but has had a couple of runs on the Flat. MEGALYPOS represents last season’s winning yard and is a French import like five of the eight winners so he has to come into the equation and Henderson was keen to protect his mark after a promising only run in this country when he would have been second in a Grade 1 but for being hampered. He has since had a wind operation so can be expected to build on that run. Both Irish-trained winners were maidens so IBSEN, who has finished second on all three starts, catches the eye more than their other contenders and squeezes in off bottom weight of the 24 runners like Tuesday’s JLT winner. He meets Fatcatinthehat and Flaxen Flare (was second to both) on more favourable terms here and makes each-way appeal. As the highest rated horse on the Flat has such a good record (three wins and a second in eight runnings) then FATCATINTHEHAT has to also make the short list having been rated as high as 92 on the level.




Weatherbys Champion Bumper cheltenham 5:15



Another race with plenty of stats. The Irish lead the British 15-5 from less than 50% of the runners and with the best British hope, Empiracle, now a Non Runner, the Irish look mighty strong again so I will be principally concentrating on their nine-strong challenge.

Last-time-out winners have won 18 of the last 20 runnings so I can’t support Caledonia, Fasvcino Rustico, I’m Fraam Govan, Kayf Moss, Posiden Sea, Pure Science, The Clock Leary or The Liquidator. Eleven of those were unbeaten if you want to narrow it down though you would be showing a level-stakes loss if you backed them all down the years as they can be over-bet.

Five of the last 12 winners have not run this year. That is interesting as they would be readily outnumbered so that’s a tick for the likes of Drumlee, Fascino Rustico, Regal Encore and Union Dues.

I am against once-raced horses (unless trained by Willie Mullins) as only Cue Card has won for them outside of the Mullins winners. As for Mullins, he is the main man of course having won this seven times and he runs three this time in Union Dues, Briar Hill and Sizing Tennessee. Five of his seven winners were once-raced but four of his winners were when he brought over just one runner.

I prefer my bet to have won in a decent sized field as 16 of the 20 winners had won a bumper comprising at least 14 runners

Short List

UNION DUES
GOLANTILLA
LE VENT D’ANTAN
DRUMLEE
BLACKMAIL

Conclusion

An Irish-trained last-time-out winner preferably in the first six in the betting (14 of the 20 winners could be found in the top six in the betting of which six started second-favourite) that had ideally won a race comprising 14+ runners is what we want. UNION DUES fits the bill and, furthermore, he is trained by Willie Mullins gunning for his eighth win in the race so he is obvious short list material. GOLANTILLA also qualifies on all three counts and was bought for a king’s ransom after beating 13 rivals at Cork last time out. The third Irish horse to meet all three criteria is LE VENT D’ANTAN who also won a 14-runner bumper last time out and will be in the first half dozen in the betting and four-year-olds fare a lot better in this race now than they used to. DRUMLEE only won an 11-runner bumper and won’t be in the top six in the betting but he is an Irish-trained last-time-out winner and horses given a good break have a fine record here so his absence of 103 days can be viewed as a positive. BLACKMAIL completes the short list being an Irish-trained last-time-out winner who is likely to be in the first six in the betting. He hasn’t won a 14+ runner bumper but was super impressive last time out and before that was second in the same Leopardstown bumper as Champagne Fever last year (who went on to win this race) and has featured two other winners of this Grade 1 prize.

TheMilkyPirate

SRFC wrote: »

Hold on lads Will racing be on

If it went ahead today it'll go ahead tomorrow, Much colder Monday night than tonight and a lot less windchill

hawkeyethenoo

hawkeyethenoo wrote: »

just because this Mail De Bievre jumped like a stag the other day over 3 miles and went out like a light after 2miles people are just assuming h'ell be electric over 2miles. sizing europe will be miles ahead of this donkey.

I,m not assuming anything,I just think 6/1 is a tempting bet without s.s. the owners and trainer obviously think it has a chance of a place by supplementing it.IMO its worth a nibble.

Crusty Blaa

I haven't laid anything yet but this is what I'm looking at:

1.30 - Godsmejudge e/w - he's a 3m+ horse and has had some decent results over softish ground in the past few months.

2.05 - The New One e/w

2.40 - Goulanes e/w

3.20 - No bet - no value(Sprinter Sacre walks it)

4.00 - Bondage e/w

4.40 - No bet

5.15 - Union Dues - I'd be shocked if this didn't place at least. Super horse.

bassy

had 5 euros ew on bailey green today he finished 2nd 33/1,am i right in thinking my return is 46.00 euro?.

jimjamcos

bassy wrote: »

had 5 euros ew on bailey green today he finished 2nd 33/1,am i right in thinking my return is 46.00 euro?.

46.25 to be precise!

ElWalrus

Owega Star and Sizing Tennessee €2.50 Double E/W

and
Cash and Go and Union Dues €2.50 Double E/W.


Am I mad?? :pac:

cruais

Day 1 went great! I'm up €220 after betting a total of €20.

For tomorrow I did €1ew patent on fiveforthree, bordoni, le vent dantan

Potential €1818.66

Treble €5 ew on unioniste, pont alexandre, back in focus

Potential €263.37

So finger crossed!

Motivator

I went for an e/w treble (I must be mad) at decent prices just for an interest today. I've split the stakes & took the prices & then took SP just in case!

I really like Unioniste in the RSA & in whats a fairly poor renewal I think Nicholls can pick up his first winner of this year's festival. Just got 7/2.

In the Coral Cup I've gone for Bondage. I like Gordon Elliott & he had Carlito Brigante pitch perfect for this 2 years ago, bit of money for it already so I took a price of 14/1.

In a tricky bumper I've gone for Le Vent D'Antan, not very original I know but I think this horse will take some beating if Liz Doyle has improved it after Leopardstown in January. I took 6/1.

rossom

1.30 Cheltenham

Not a race that I'm going to invest too much in but Willie Mullins's Back In Focus 3/1 looks the standout in this 4 mile contest. 3-3 over fences, I think the fact he was considered for the RSA Chase for such a long time speaks volumes of how highly he is rated. Successful in a Grade 1 on his final start for which he escapes a penalty, he beat stablemate Aupcharlie (who is 2nd favourite for the Jewson) by a head and that is clearly the best form on offer in this race. Having shaped like an out and out stayer, the trainer's son Paddy Mullins takes the ride and he's arguably the best jockey on show in this Amateur event. With Mullins having a belting day yesterday landing a treble, its clear he's got his horses in fantastic form and he could easily prove too good for this field.

2.05 Cheltenham

He's gotten very short at 6/4 (may be an idea to double him wit Back In Focus) but Pont Alexandre has been touted as an absolute machine and has looked a superstar in the making. An import from France, Pont Alexandre created a huge impression on his debut when winning in very taking fashion by 13L at Navan back in December. The one hugely important thing to note was that he made his Irish debut for Willie Mullins in a Grade 1 (the first time he has ever done that) and I think it says all you need to know about how highly regarded he is. He came out to repeat the feat in similarly impressive fashion when absolutely trouncing some decent looking rivals and he could be a special horse. He has been the most talked about horse by Ruby Walsh and Mullins in the lead up to the Festival and although he may be too short to back I think there is a strong possibility he'll run amok tomorrow and prove that he is National Hunt racing's new star.

2.40 Cheltenham

This looks like a pretty average RSA Chase with the defection of Dynaste to the Jewson after David Pipe copped out. A race that had become a bit of a career killer before Bob's Worth's victory last year, this race doesn't always go to the best horse but often the best stayer and I'm happy with the antepost bet I took on Houblon Des Obeaux at 33/1 a few weeks ago but he's too short for me at 12s now. I probably won't be investing again but Terminal 20/1 looks like he is starting to really warm to fences in his last 2 starts and is actually officially the 2nd highest rated horse in the field. Based on Willie Mullins's comments recently, I don't think he's hugely rated by the trainer but I also get the impression he keeps getting a little surprised by the unexposed 6 year old who looks like he'll stay very well. He looks 2nd choice on jockey bookings with David Casey riding but I think he may be worth a little e/w squeak as he's definitely progressive and open to further improvement.

3.20 Cheltenham

Sprinter Sacre will win unless he falls as nothing will get close to the big black aeroplane.

4.00 Cheltenham

Absolutely raging with Donald McCain for pulling last years winner Son Of Flicka out of this and sinking my biggest antepost bet in the process but I do really like another one in the shape Jonjo O'Neill's Mr Watson 16/1 NAP who looks to have a serious, serious engine. This former point to point winning 6 year old was purchased t for £215,000 in April last year after running a very nice 3rd in a valuable bumper in Fairyhouse over in Ireland and moved to O'Neill October last year. In his first two starts over hurdles, he looked as if he was a horse that had a lot of ability but he pulled way too hard which threw away his chances. However, the application of a hood has been the making of Mr Watson as it has allowed him to settle down and he's finally been able to harness his immense potential in his last 2 races. He was a very facile winner at Plumpton in January with an all the way success and he continued his progression with a very impressive performance on handicap debut over 2m at Cheltenham later that month off a mark of 127. Under the champ McCoy, Mr Watson made all in the testing conditions and quickened on impressively after the final flight to score by 4.5L and it was clear to me that he was a handicap blot and won with plenty in hand. The form of that race looks strong with the 3rd Quaddick Lake certain to have won off a 3lb higher mark had he not been badly interfered with a faller and a few other horses have run really big races in behind since. There is no doubt in my mind that it was a very competitive contest and I was very taken by Mr Watson's demolition of the field. He's been upped 12lb to a mark of 139 but I still think he's a well handicapped horse who has a tremendous amount of improvement left in him. He's stepped up to 2m5f today which should definitely suit on breeding and given that he won a 3m Point To Point I think he'll certainly improve for the extra distance. I think it will be very interesting to see if he is sent off from the front tomorrow or will there be a change of tactics as he is definitely a horse who should thrive on a fast pace so he could easily be dropped in close to the pace. Although its disappointing to lose the services of McCoy who is committed to ride J P McManus's runner, Richie McClernon should no Mr Watson well from Jonjo's yard and is a Festival winning jockey. With a win already under his belt at the course, 16/1 is a much bigger price than I expected and I'm hoping Mr Watson gives me the winner of this race for the 2nd year running.

4.40 Cheltenham

This is an absolute minefield! Kalmann is undoubtedly the most fascinating contender of the day given he is having his first run for Willie Mullins having been purchased for €220,000 after 3 runs in France and its impossible to know how well handicapped he is. The booking of Paul Townend suggests he is Mullins's first string and I certainly think he's worth a little wager at 10/1 given the tremendous form of Muine Beag team. Another I like is Donald McCain's Counsel 14/1 who I think is definitely is well handicapped off a mark of 130. After a poor hurdling debut, the application of a tongue tie really helped Counsel as he ran out an impressive winner before he was stepped into Grade 2 Company on his next start. McCain has come out and stated he got the tactics wrong with Counsel as he was held up but he still ran on well at the finish to be beaten a little over 6L. Nevertheless, the form of those in front of him is pretty strong and the return to more attacking tactics saw Counsel win impressively last time at Sedgefield. He should definitely run a big race and 14s is a good price. One at a huge price that I think looks very interesting is Eugene O'Sullivan's Habesh 40/1 who I think can definitely outrun his price. After two solid starts over hurdles, he won impressively at the 3rd time of asking under tomorrow's jockey Paddy Kennedy by 1.25L from Top Man Michael who had previous shown some strong form and back in 3rd was hurdling debutant Stockton's Wing who has subsequently gone on to score in a Grade 2. He comes here off a mark of 126 and has been kept fit on the flat recently and I think its very interesting that he sports cheekpieces - which he improved in on the flat - for the first time over hurdles. Furthermore, his trainer O'Sullivan has been adamant that he is a better horse on a sounder surface and although its still probably soft he will appreciate the ground more than the heavy his victory came on. A mark of 126 definitely seems workable and Paddy Kennedy (who I don't know much about) takes off another very handy 5lbs. The trainer, who won the Hunter Chase back in 1991, hasn't had a runner at the Festival for a few years and I think he's certainly worth a dabble at 40/1

5.15 Cheltenham

I'll be absolutely sick if Blackmail wins tomorrow given that I had a docket for Moyle Park at 85/1 who comprehensively beat him on debut but who does not make the trip. I've backed the highly regarded Golantilla at 20/1 a few months ago who was extremely impressive when winning a P2P and Bumper for Sean O'Brien before being sold to Barry Connell for €375k and moved to Tony Martin. However, he worked poorly at Leopardstown recently and although I think he's got a great chance if showing his true potential my confidence is not as high as it once was. I am quite keen on a horse though who has very much so slipped under the radar in the shape of Drumlee 25/1 and I think he's going to run really well in the extremely competitive bumper. He's the first foal of a dam who is an un-raced half sister to Brave Inca and he was mightily impressive when landing a gamble for Sean McParlan back in November when showing superb cruising speed to come from last to first before scoring in fine fashion by . Seems like he has been picked up by JP McManus and has gone to Charlie Swan - who trained the runner up Tangled Web and who JP owns. I'd say that Swan told JP that they thought Tangled Web was a serious horse and for Drumlee to do that to him then he must be a very, very good horse. Form of that race has been franked strongly as well with Tangled Web winning NTO and the 3rd Our Pollyanna subsequently won very easily by nearly 10L for Prunella Dobbs before being sold to Alan King for £80k in January. He makes his stable debut for Swan (his only runner of the meeting) and I certainly think Swan (who rode the winner of this twice) will know if he has a horse capable of running well in this. I'm quite surprised to see David Casey on board given that Nina Carberry doesn't have a ride in the race but I've no problem with the jockey himself. Its quite difficult to know good Drumlee is with only one start to date but I certainly think he's a talented horse and I expect him to run a big race in what is an extremely open contest.

WarZoneBrother

I will just be sticking a random bet on Black Thunder at 25/1 ... Then my bet will only be Bobs Worth for the rest of the week ...