Cheltenham Day 1 Tuesday 12th March 2013

JP Liz V1

I'll start with my picks so far

Dodging Bullets
Countrywide Flame
Alasi

ft9

My picks *

Jezki
Simonsig (€100 bet to nothing with Ladbrokes)
Monkerty Tunkerty ew
Grandouet (MBS PP If HF wins)
Saddlers Storm
Une Artiste ew
Carlito Brigante

*subject to change

Johner

1.30 - Puffin Billy/Cheltenian e/w

2.05 - Simonsig

2.40 - White Star Line e/w

3.20 - Grandouet

4.00 - Outlaw Pete

4.40 - Quevega

5.15 - Colour Squadron

byronbay2

Horray - it's Christmas Eve at last! I was wondering when someone would start this thread. Great days racing in store tomorrow but need to read today's Racing Post pullout (can't wait) + tomorrow's RP + look at Oddschecker (+ bookies offers etc.) for most of the races before deciding what, if anything, to back.

However, the one substantial bet that I know I will definitely be doing is Zarkander in The Champion Hurdle with PP. Their prices are short at the moment because of the Hurricane Fly concession but when the show prices come in I hope to get 4/1 or better (I think HF will be heavily backed tomorrow) and think that this is a great price, coupled with the HF offer. I will also have a saver on Rock On Ruby with the same firm.

Mgoraf

MTOY (money back with VC)
Simonsig
Binocular ew

the groutch

River Maigue & Pique Sous e/w
Baily Green w/o Simsonsig (and Overturn?)
Quantitativeasing e/w
Boston's Angel
Place Lay Quevega
Carlito Brigante

SRFC

If dodging bullets is out of the first 5 in the supreme ill eat my hat and absolute ew certainty imo.

Deco99

Champagne Fever ew
Simonsig (ladbrokes offer)
Alfie Sherrin ew
Zarkandar (PP offer)
Uncle Junior ew
Une Artiste ew
Ohio Gold ew

also got avrika legionair ew double with mail de bievre


P.S. I'm that guy that walks into the bookies once a year, so my choices are based entirely on sporting life and this forum.

Mgoraf

SRFC wrote: »

If dodging bullets is out of the first 5 in the supreme ill eat my hat and absolute ew certainty imo.

Seen this offer on Hills, they won't take my card though :mad:

Also backing The Druids Nephew in the lucky last at 7s

ForeverYoung90

How can they cut prices so much the closer they get to race day?eg.Jeski 6s last week into 4s now.

Rastadoyle

on a different note anyone know where i can watch last two races live, as in any links? i dont have RUK. also i know ya can watch races on paddy power as long as you bet on the race

beaker1

you can watch racing on


http://tykestv.eu/streams/


the festival will be on here from 2moro,click horse racing then click on ruk they also got atr the stream works fine and its on every day except weekends at the moment on atr they are showing plumpton

ps - be patient there will be ads that come up click on the little x in the corner of the ads and they will go the picture quaility is very good and i use it every day

jimjamcos

ForeverYoung90 wrote: »

How can they cut prices so much the closer they get to race day?eg.Jeski 6s last week into 4s now.

Weight of money and Melodic Rendevous being pulled maybe. Also the vast majority of punters are happy to take on the fav in a race such as Supreme so Jezki was always gonna be strong for ew money!

TheMilkyPirate

beaker1 wrote: »

you can watch racing on


http://tykestv.eu/streams/


the festival will be on here from 2moro,click horse racing then click on ruk they also got atr the stream works fine and its on every day except weekends at the moment on atr they are showing plumpton

ps - be patient there will be ads that come up click on the little x in the corner of the ads and they will go the picture quaility is very good and i use it every day

Thanks for that.

Gavin "shels"

ft9 wrote: »

Carlito Brigante

the groutch wrote: »

Carlito Brigante

Gordan Elliot is concerned with regards to the ground he has said, just to point out.

ft9

The biggest certainty of tomorrow is some noob to come on here saying how his stupid horse fell and hopes he broke a leg. Or that McCoy or Walsh is a clueless pr!ck.

Hate to be a mod!

UrbanSea

Biggest certainty is I get pissed drunk at the ball I'm going to tomorrow night and puke on my tux

SRFC

RichieLawlessness wrote: »

Biggest certainty is I get pissed drunk at the ball I'm going to tomorrow night and puke on my tux

And miss wednesdays action at Cheltenham :pac:

rossom

beaker1 wrote: »

you can watch racing on


http://tykestv.eu/streams/


the festival will be on here from 2moro,click horse racing then click on ruk they also got atr the stream works fine and its on every day except weekends at the moment on atr they are showing plumpton

ps - be patient there will be ads that come up click on the little x in the corner of the ads and they will go the picture quaility is very good and i use it every day

Get this for chrome. Best extension ever made that removes all ads

https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/adblock/gighmmpiobklfepjocnamgkkbiglidom?hl=en

SRFC

rossom wrote: »

Get this for chrome. Best extension ever made that removes all ads

https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/adblock/gighmmpiobklfepjocnamgkkbiglidom?hl=en

Life saver for websites of the adult variety

UrbanSea

And Youtube

Motivator

Deco99 wrote: »

Champagne Fever ew
Simonsig (ladbrokes offer)
Alfie Sherrin ew
Zarkandar (PP offer)
Uncle Junior ew
Une Artiste ew
Ohio Gold ew

also got avrika legionair ew double with mail de bievre


P.S. I'm that guy that walks into the bookies once a year, so my choices are based entirely on sporting life and this forum.

Funnily enough, you'll end up backing more winners than anyone this week.

El Ninotorres

Champagne Fever
Loch Ba
Hurricane Fly
Rouge Et Blanc

Lucky 15.. Have since found out Rouge Et Blanc has been pulled from race so left with the other 3

Will be having a small ew on Hazy Tom in the last too

Wacker The Attacker

Champagne Fever in the First.

Will have a look at the betting in the morning before doing any of the others

3ndahalfof6

1:30 CHELTENIAN

2:05 ARVIKA LIGEONNIERE

2:40 WHITE STAR LINE

3:20 CINDERS AND ASHES

4:00 A NEW STORY/ PASSATO

4:40 KAFFIE

5:15 OHIO GOLD

mike65

Tuesday
14:40 Midnight Chase
15.20 Rock on Ruby

might try another couple tomorrow.

Just spotted an interesting dark horse in the Cross Country race Sacree Tiepy, first race outside France. Had a warm up in a CCR at Pau last month finishing a good second after a year off the course.

ForeverYoung90

Idiots guide to picking a winner.
Look for Ruby Walsh and Barry Geraghty and back whoever is on the bigger priced horse.
eg. Champion Hurdle..HURRICANE FLY 2s(Walsh)/GRANDOUET 7s(Geraghty).

Guaranteed 3/4 winners for the week.

3ndahalfof6

ForeverYoung90 wrote: »

Idiots guide to picking a winner.
Look for Ruby Walsh and Barry Geraghty and back whoever is on the bigger priced horse.
eg. Champion Hurdle..HURRICANE FLY 2s(Walsh)/GRANDOUET 7s(Geraghty).

Guaranteed 3/4 winners for the week.

It is times like this I wish I was an idiots ohhhhhhhhhhhh waaaaaaaait, :pac:

Motivator

mike65 wrote: »

Tuesday
14:40 Midnight Chase
15.20 Rock on Ruby

might try another couple tomorrow.

I'm a big fan of Midnight Chase also, do you mind me asking why you're backing him? I've got plenty of reasons but would like to hear others opinions on what will hopefully be a big priced winner on day 1

dahat

Jezki 10/1
Rock on Ruby 11/2
Fruity o Rooney 16/1
The Druids Nephew 10/1

Have these done a while so hopefully 1 or 2 come up.I will probably just do the Placepot tomorrow.

mike65

Motivator wrote: »

I'm a big fan of Midnight Chase also, do you mind me asking why you're backing him? I've got plenty of reasons but would like to hear others opinions on what will hopefully be a big priced winner on day 1

No genius on my part, I've been going through Gary Nuttings picks on ATR.

I'm not backing them all (some are n/r since the write up as well) but I'm going to back about 12-15 in total I'd say.

SRFC

Gordon Elliot on Sky sports news there the interviewer asked him about his 3 runners tomorrow he talked about causes of causes and maes choice but strangely never mentioned carlito brigante maybe he didnt want to jinx it

Luap

Hazy Tom
Merry King
Cinders And Ashes
Un Atout
Quevega
Simonsig
Any Currency

oldfella

heres my e/w lucky 15

1.30 cause of causes
3.20 bionocular
2.40 quartz de thaix
5.15 restless harry

TheMilkyPirate

This is a great read, You'd find it very hard to oppose Simonsig tomorrow after it.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2013/mar/11/barry-geraghty-cheltenham-festival

"You can't be complacent. You have to get the job done and celebrate afterwards. But we had a dynamite schooling session with them at [trainer] Nicky Henderson's yard this morning. Incredible. It was my first schooling spin on Sacre for a year and …**** me …"

iggy

Have done a single on Zarkander and single e/w on Dodging Bullets( see he is drifting)
Lucky 15 Win
Hurricane Fly
Simonsig
Jezski
Merry King

lucky 15 E/W
Any Currency
Howards Legacy
Loch Ba
Swing Bowler.

Good luck all

jimjamcos

1.30 Un Atout ew @ 8/1, Puffin Billy ew W/O Fav @ 10/1

2.05 Simonsig (Banker. Too short for me though so in multiples with others throughout week)

2.40 Fruity O'Rooney ew @ 14/1

3.20 ROR @ 5/1, Grandouet @ 9/1, Binocular @10/1...but think Hurricane Fly will win now it's soft!

4.00 Uncle Junior ew @ 8/1, Bostons Angel ew @ 10/1


Also have Arvika in an antepost ew double with Mail De Brieve in CC.

dahat

Betfair is seeing plenty money for The Druids Nephew from what i can see,steadily coming into fav

ste2010

Supreme
Split 3 ways
Dodging bullets each way
Puffin billy each way
Un atout each way

Arkle
Simonsig

JLT
TBD

Champion hurdle
Grandouet (dreaming)
Hurricane Fly or Zarkandar (haven't decided)

Cross Country
Arabella Boy

Mares
Un artiste without Quevega

Rewards handicap
Vulcanite (nap) ew
Carlito brigante ew

3ndahalfof6

Be lucky tomorrow guys, traits show a big price winner in the 1st, so go find it, ohhh and let me know please.

irishfeen

Here's who I am setting a few pound aside for.... please for yer own sanity and economic state stay well away Best of luck whatever happens ladies and gents.

1.30 Jezki EW
2.05 Simonsig Win
2.40 Our Mick EW
3.20 Grandouet EW
4.00 Arabella Boy/Outlaw Pete Win
5.15 Carlito Brigante EW

Treble To Win -
My Tent Or Yours
Simonsig
Zarkandar

beaker1

1.30PM – WILLIAM HILL SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE

This is one of the most eagerly anticipated races of the year and this year we have a runner with a rating that is already 11 pounds higher than that achieved by the winner last year, so we are looking at a top class renewal of the event.

There are some significant statistics to consider. Firstly, 14 of the last 16 winners won last time out, secondly 9 of the last 11 winners had never finished out of the first 3 when completing over hurdles and thirdly five and six year olds have won all bar 2 of the renewals this century. It is also important to note that 9 of the last 11 winners had run in the last 40 days as you do not want your horse to run too fresh in a race like this. Another statistic that may prove valuable is that the last five British winners of this race had raced at least four times over hurdles.

MY TENT OR YOURS sets the standard and could prove hard to beat. He looked good on his debut over hurdles, comfortably defeating Taquin du Seuil, who went on to easily win the Grade one Challow Hurdle. He then ran well on his next two starts, but it was his easy win in the Betfair hurdle off a mark of 149 that makes him a serious contender in this. That was a special performance and a repeat of that sort of form will make him very hard to beat. A big danger is DODGING BULLETS who is rated 156 over hurdles. He was classy on the flat and ran very well in the Triumph Hurdle last year on only his second ever start over hurdles. He loves Cheltenham, having won twice at the course, including when giving weight to River Maigue and put up a good performance last time out, finishing third to Darlan at level weights at Kempton. He is not a pick for followers of the stats, but he is a very good horse who will be suited by the pace of this race. CHAMPAGNE FEVER should not be under-estimated. He was a good winner of the bumper last year and has a great attitude. He was a good winner of a Grade One last time out and gave weight to Jezki when second at Fairyhouse. The ground will be ideal for him and Ruby Walsh rides, so a big run is expected.

• CHAMPAGNE FEVER
• MY TENT OR YOURS
• DODGING BULLETS




2.05PM – RACING POST ARKLE CHALLENGE TROPHY

There are several key statistics to take into account for this race. Firstly only one winner since the 1980s had ever finished outside the first two on a completed start over fences, secondly 10 of the last 11 winners had run at least three times over fences, thirdly 9 of the last 11 winners had been placed in a Grade 1 or 2 race and finally, 7 of the last 11 winners had finished in the first two at Cheltenham before.

Two horses dominate the betting in this and it is hard to see the winner not being one of them. SIMONSIG is held in the highest regard at Seven Barrows and is up there with Sprinter Sacre, so although Overturn is greatly respected, it is Simonsig for me. He is a winning pointer and has looked electric so far over fences, winning both starts very easily. His defeat of the useful Hinterland reads very well and he has so far jumped well. He has plenty of pace so should be able to sit just behind Overturn, before kicking for home and it is battle that should excite all jumps fans.


• SIMONSIG



2.40PM – JLT SPECIALITY HANDICAP CHASE

Weight is important in this race as the last 11 winners carried 11-2 or less. Also the younger generation does well as we have not had a winner aged older than 10 this century. It is also common for the winner to enter the race in good form, as 10 of the 12 winners this century had finished in the first three last time out and as a result, 9 of them started at 8/1 or less. Also 10 of the last 12 winners had raced no more than 11 times over fences.

MERRY KING has progressed well over fences and the piece of form that stands out is his second behind Rolling Aces who is now rated 23 pounds higher and although Merry King has gone up 11 pounds he could still be on a fair mark. The soft ground will hold no fears to him and he looks very progressive. LOCH BA is an interesting runner. He has improved a lot this season and was a very easy winner last time out. He has gone up in the handicap again, but looks capable of running well and the ground will hold no fears to him.

• MERRY KING
• LOCH BA



3.20PM – STAN JAMES CHAMPION HURDLE

It is important to have won last time out coming into this race as 8 of the last 11 winners had done so and that trend goes back much further. It is also important to have run in the same calendar year as 17 of the last 18 winners had done so. On a negative note, five year olds rarely win this race, but since the introduction of the Fred Winter Hurdle, their record has improved and several have made the frame.

HURRICANE FLY is an exceptional hurdler, having won 16 of his 19 starts and is clearly the one to beat. This season he is unbeaten in three starts, all in Grade One races and has looked not far off his best. He has proven ability at Cheltenham, having won the 2011 Champion Hurdle and sets a very high standard. ROCK ON RUBY looks the main danger. He has not been given enough credit for his win last season, where he had Hurricane Fly five and a half lengths back in third. He travelled strongly that day and was given a good ride, but I feel he may have improved this season and should not be under-estimated. First time out he travelled like the best horse against Zarkandar and Grandouet at Cheltenham until lack of race fitness cost him. Last time out he put in a much stronger performance, winning at Doncaster and it would have been a close finish if Darlan had not suffered a fatal fall. Rock On Ruby handles Cheltenham well, (placed on all five starts at the track) and comes into the race in good form, so is a serious player again this year.

• ROCK ON RUBY
• HURRICANE FLY



4.00PM – GLENFARCLAS HANDICAP CHASE

There are several key statistics to take into account in this race. The one that jumps out is that only one winner has been trained outside of Ireland and only one winner was not aged between 9 and 12. It is also interesting to note that 7 of the 8 winners had already raced over the cross-country course at Cheltenham and that this usually goes to one of the favourites, as 7 of the 8 winners started at 13/2 or less.

BOSTONS ANGEL is an interesting runner here. Cheltenham plays to his strengths and in two starts at the track, he has won the RSA Chase and finished second over this course off a mark of 145, which is what he races off again today. He looked very much at home over this cross-country track and has also run a good race in Ireland over this sort of track, so a bold run is expected. ARABELLA BOY won a key trial for this at Punchestown last month and is trained by Enda Bolger, who has a fantastic record in this race. In the Punchestown race he beat Uncle Junior by over 20 lengths at level weights, yet receives a massive 18 pounds here, so assuming he jumps ok, he could prove hard to beat.

• BOSTONS ANGEL
• ARABELLA BOY




4.40PM – OLBG MARES’ HURDLE

QUEVEGA is an outstanding mare and bids to make it five in a row in this race. Amazingly it is almost four years since she was last beaten, but she has only had six runs. She was impressive in this last year and although this is her first run of the season, that was the case last year and it did not stop her. It is also easy to forget that in France she was beaten just two lengths by Hurricane Fly in receipt of just four pounds – that shows just how good she is. When searching for who will finish second, I am keen on UNE ARTISTE. She stayed on strongly to win the Fred Winter last season and looks to have improved again this year. She has now won 6 of her 8 starts over hurdles and last time out gave weight and a beating to Kentford Grey Lady and Alasi at Sandown. That was a good run and she could give the favourite most to think about.

• QUEVEGA
• UNE ARTISTE (Betting without the favourite)




5.15PM – REWARDS4RACING NOVICES’ HANDICAP CHASE

Winners of this race have shown a consistent level of form over fences, with all 8 finishing in the first 2 on their most recent run. In fact in the history of this race the winners had run 37 times over fences going into the race and had finished out of the first three on a completed start just four times. From a handicapping point of view it could also be significant that every winner was beaten first time over fences and only one carried more than 11-4.

A horse that I am very keen on is CARLITO BRIGANTE. A winner over hurdles at this meeting off a rating of 140, he has taken well to fences, winning twice and last time out he finished a good fourth to Dynaste, Fingal Bay and Unioniste, despite giving them all weight. A rating of 137 for this looks lenient and he should run a big race. VULCANITE was travelling strongly turning for home last year in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and has taken well to fences. After impressing on his seasonal debut over hurdles, he made a successful start over fences, winning at Hereford and run well on his next two starts on ground softer than ideal. He is rated 145 over hurdles, but just 137 over fences and given that he jumps well, he could be well treated. Another well handicapped horse is THE DRUID’S NEPHEW who won well last time at Wincanton, easily beating Grandioso who went on to win a Grade Two Novice Chase on his last run. On his chase debut he split the useful pair of Hadrian’s Approach and Rolling Aces and the form of that race has been boosted again and again, so a mark of just 135 could prove very lenient.



• CARLITO BRIGANTE
• VULCANITE
• THE DRUID’S NEPHEW

UnitedIrishman

Rastadoyle wrote: »

on a different note anyone know where i can watch last two races live, as in any links? i dont have RUK. also i know ya can watch races on paddy power as long as you bet on the race

For anyone using a mobile - download the FilmOn app. Basically gives you all the English channels (Channel 4) included. Dead handy.

Picks for tomorrow:

Supreme - Champagne Fever already backed E/W

Arkle - no bet race - fancy Simonsig

JLT - Monkerty Tunkerty

Champion Hurdle - Hurricane Fly and Zarkandar (backed with Powers moneyback offer)

X Country - Arabella Boy

Mares - Shop DJ E/W (w/o Quevega)

Handicap Chase - Colour Squadron

porterbelly

Fancy Carlito Brigante as well.

Local connections are confident

3ndahalfof6

beaker1 wrote: »

1.30PM – WILLIAM HILL SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE

This is one of the most eagerly anticipated races of the year and this year we have a runner with a rating that is already 11 pounds higher than that achieved by the winner last year, so we are looking at a top class renewal of the event.

There are some significant statistics to consider. Firstly, 14 of the last 16 winners won last time out, secondly 9 of the last 11 winners had never finished out of the first 3 when completing over hurdles and thirdly five and six year olds have won all bar 2 of the renewals this century. It is also important to note that 9 of the last 11 winners had run in the last 40 days as you do not want your horse to run too fresh in a race like this. Another statistic that may prove valuable is that the last five British winners of this race had raced at least four times over hurdles.

MY TENT OR YOURS sets the standard and could prove hard to beat. He looked good on his debut over hurdles, comfortably defeating Taquin du Seuil, who went on to easily win the Grade one Challow Hurdle. He then ran well on his next two starts, but it was his easy win in the Betfair hurdle off a mark of 149 that makes him a serious contender in this. That was a special performance and a repeat of that sort of form will make him very hard to beat. A big danger is DODGING BULLETS who is rated 156 over hurdles. He was classy on the flat and ran very well in the Triumph Hurdle last year on only his second ever start over hurdles. He loves Cheltenham, having won twice at the course, including when giving weight to River Maigue and put up a good performance last time out, finishing third to Darlan at level weights at Kempton. He is not a pick for followers of the stats, but he is a very good horse who will be suited by the pace of this race. CHAMPAGNE FEVER should not be under-estimated. He was a good winner of the bumper last year and has a great attitude. He was a good winner of a Grade One last time out and gave weight to Jezki when second at Fairyhouse. The ground will be ideal for him and Ruby Walsh rides, so a big run is expected.

• CHAMPAGNE FEVER
• MY TENT OR YOURS
• DODGING BULLETS




2.05PM – RACING POST ARKLE CHALLENGE TROPHY

There are several key statistics to take into account for this race. Firstly only one winner since the 1980s had ever finished outside the first two on a completed start over fences, secondly 10 of the last 11 winners had run at least three times over fences, thirdly 9 of the last 11 winners had been placed in a Grade 1 or 2 race and finally, 7 of the last 11 winners had finished in the first two at Cheltenham before.

Two horses dominate the betting in this and it is hard to see the winner not being one of them. SIMONSIG is held in the highest regard at Seven Barrows and is up there with Sprinter Sacre, so although Overturn is greatly respected, it is Simonsig for me. He is a winning pointer and has looked electric so far over fences, winning both starts very easily. His defeat of the useful Hinterland reads very well and he has so far jumped well. He has plenty of pace so should be able to sit just behind Overturn, before kicking for home and it is battle that should excite all jumps fans.


• SIMONSIG



2.40PM – JLT SPECIALITY HANDICAP CHASE

Weight is important in this race as the last 11 winners carried 11-2 or less. Also the younger generation does well as we have not had a winner aged older than 10 this century. It is also common for the winner to enter the race in good form, as 10 of the 12 winners this century had finished in the first three last time out and as a result, 9 of them started at 8/1 or less. Also 10 of the last 12 winners had raced no more than 11 times over fences.

MERRY KING has progressed well over fences and the piece of form that stands out is his second behind Rolling Aces who is now rated 23 pounds higher and although Merry King has gone up 11 pounds he could still be on a fair mark. The soft ground will hold no fears to him and he looks very progressive. LOCH BA is an interesting runner. He has improved a lot this season and was a very easy winner last time out. He has gone up in the handicap again, but looks capable of running well and the ground will hold no fears to him.

• MERRY KING
• LOCH BA



3.20PM – STAN JAMES CHAMPION HURDLE

It is important to have won last time out coming into this race as 8 of the last 11 winners had done so and that trend goes back much further. It is also important to have run in the same calendar year as 17 of the last 18 winners had done so. On a negative note, five year olds rarely win this race, but since the introduction of the Fred Winter Hurdle, their record has improved and several have made the frame.

HURRICANE FLY is an exceptional hurdler, having won 16 of his 19 starts and is clearly the one to beat. This season he is unbeaten in three starts, all in Grade One races and has looked not far off his best. He has proven ability at Cheltenham, having won the 2011 Champion Hurdle and sets a very high standard. ROCK ON RUBY looks the main danger. He has not been given enough credit for his win last season, where he had Hurricane Fly five and a half lengths back in third. He travelled strongly that day and was given a good ride, but I feel he may have improved this season and should not be under-estimated. First time out he travelled like the best horse against Zarkandar and Grandouet at Cheltenham until lack of race fitness cost him. Last time out he put in a much stronger performance, winning at Doncaster and it would have been a close finish if Darlan had not suffered a fatal fall. Rock On Ruby handles Cheltenham well, (placed on all five starts at the track) and comes into the race in good form, so is a serious player again this year.

• ROCK ON RUBY
• HURRICANE FLY



4.00PM – GLENFARCLAS HANDICAP CHASE

There are several key statistics to take into account in this race. The one that jumps out is that only one winner has been trained outside of Ireland and only one winner was not aged between 9 and 12. It is also interesting to note that 7 of the 8 winners had already raced over the cross-country course at Cheltenham and that this usually goes to one of the favourites, as 7 of the 8 winners started at 13/2 or less.

BOSTONS ANGEL is an interesting runner here. Cheltenham plays to his strengths and in two starts at the track, he has won the RSA Chase and finished second over this course off a mark of 145, which is what he races off again today. He looked very much at home over this cross-country track and has also run a good race in Ireland over this sort of track, so a bold run is expected. ARABELLA BOY won a key trial for this at Punchestown last month and is trained by Enda Bolger, who has a fantastic record in this race. In the Punchestown race he beat Uncle Junior by over 20 lengths at level weights, yet receives a massive 18 pounds here, so assuming he jumps ok, he could prove hard to beat.

• BOSTONS ANGEL
• ARABELLA BOY




4.40PM – OLBG MARES’ HURDLE

QUEVEGA is an outstanding mare and bids to make it five in a row in this race. Amazingly it is almost four years since she was last beaten, but she has only had six runs. She was impressive in this last year and although this is her first run of the season, that was the case last year and it did not stop her. It is also easy to forget that in France she was beaten just two lengths by Hurricane Fly in receipt of just four pounds – that shows just how good she is. When searching for who will finish second, I am keen on UNE ARTISTE. She stayed on strongly to win the Fred Winter last season and looks to have improved again this year. She has now won 6 of her 8 starts over hurdles and last time out gave weight and a beating to Kentford Grey Lady and Alasi at Sandown. That was a good run and she could give the favourite most to think about.

• QUEVEGA
• UNE ARTISTE (Betting without the favourite)




5.15PM – REWARDS4RACING NOVICES’ HANDICAP CHASE

Winners of this race have shown a consistent level of form over fences, with all 8 finishing in the first 2 on their most recent run. In fact in the history of this race the winners had run 37 times over fences going into the race and had finished out of the first three on a completed start just four times. From a handicapping point of view it could also be significant that every winner was beaten first time over fences and only one carried more than 11-4.

A horse that I am very keen on is CARLITO BRIGANTE. A winner over hurdles at this meeting off a rating of 140, he has taken well to fences, winning twice and last time out he finished a good fourth to Dynaste, Fingal Bay and Unioniste, despite giving them all weight. A rating of 137 for this looks lenient and he should run a big race. VULCANITE was travelling strongly turning for home last year in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and has taken well to fences. After impressing on his seasonal debut over hurdles, he made a successful start over fences, winning at Hereford and run well on his next two starts on ground softer than ideal. He is rated 145 over hurdles, but just 137 over fences and given that he jumps well, he could be well treated. Another well handicapped horse is THE DRUID’S NEPHEW who won well last time at Wincanton, easily beating Grandioso who went on to win a Grade Two Novice Chase on his last run. On his chase debut he split the useful pair of Hadrian’s Approach and Rolling Aces and the form of that race has been boosted again and again, so a mark of just 135 could prove very lenient.



• CARLITO BRIGANTE
• VULCANITE
• THE DRUID’S NEPHEW

The horsie graph forgot to take the ground into consideration, hence the horses who can do the do doing it(or not), just give me the right conditions and I will win, (hermun shergar).

Crash Bang Wall

3ndahalfof6 wrote: »

Be lucky tomorrow guys, traits show a big price winner in the 1st, so go find it, ohhh and let me know please.

Backed Un Atout, but looks like a minefield

rossom

porterbelly wrote: »

Fancy Carlito Brigante as well.

Local connections are confident

He's undoubtedly on a very workable mark but the soft ground would be a massive, massive, massive worry. Gordon Elliott said in his Cheltenham Festival Stable Tour that he can barely walk on soft ground (obviously exaggerating) but the comment just emphasises how much he needs good ground. Of course its still possible that he can win but the soft ground has put me right off his chances.

Colonel Sanders

Seems to be a good spread of money in the supreme

Simonsig very strong in the arkle.

Massive gamble already on Merry King in the JLT

As you were in the champion but Binocular seems strong enough, wasn't sure his price would hold up on the ground

Swing Bowler the big springer in the mares race

Colour Squadron might start very short in the last, connections seem to be swaying people here. For me he doesn't jump well enough but as someone said to me today, the potential application of massive amounts of money might bring about improvement in him :rolleyes: Owner and trainer should be be arrested if he lands a well backed success here

Handsome Bob

Just going to do a €1 Lucky 15 on

Champagne Fever (1.30)
Simonsig (2.05)
Zarkandar (3.20)
Quevega (4.40)

I would promise that €15 is the most I'm going to lose tomorrow...but that would be probably be bollox.

ste2010

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Colour Squadron might start very short in the last, connections seem to be swaying people here. For me he doesn't jump well enough but as someone said to me today, the potential application of massive amounts of money might bring about improvement in him :rolleyes: Owner and trainer should be be arrested if he lands a well backed success here

Couldn't agree more with this post..didn't he fall over hurdles twice..frankly i think vulcanite is the forgotten horse in the race. He is the one for me. It would be no surprise if this was a McManus special. McCoy purposely prevented him from winning last 2 times..the race against salden licht (winner) after jumping 1 of the last 3 fences took a sneaky pull..very tender rides

MoscowFlyer

MTOY - 2/1
Simonsig - 8/11
Quvega - 4/7

£20 treble

---

Quantativeeasing 2.40 - 25/1
Grandouet 3.20 - 15/2
Bostons Angel 4.00 - 8/1
Vulcanite 5.15 - 16/1

30p E/W L15 + 50p E/W Acc