Epsom Derby 2013

SRFC

This wont go down well with Cheltenham next week :pac:



Anyways Ive been looking up the betting and Mars is available at 12/1 for this,I remember all the talk about this and im sure it was derby favourite before it even ran,didnt run again since bolting up on debut in dundalk but 12/1 could be a huge price come the day ill be investing in some of this,Kingsbairns is probably 10 lenghts better who knows but 12/1 is an ok price imo,



Anyone backed anything ante post for it or fancy something?

UrbanSea

Couldn't back a maiden winner at 12/1 no matter what they said, only one I'd like now is Toronado I really liked his attitude the day he beat Dundonnel from the front he kept finding and battling. 16/1 and has a real middle distance pedigree but lots can change between now and June, expect Ballydoyle to have 1 or 2 good ones we haven't seen yet

finbarrk

Thought it was about going over to it! A bit early for backing. Time to book flights alright.

kfallon

Is Battle of Marengo still 20's? I like him, seems like he has a very likeable attitude. Still too early to b betting tho!

UrbanSea

I've my suspicions he will be below group 1 level fallon, nothing to prove it yet just haven't been too taken

kfallon

RichieLawlessness wrote: »

I've my suspicions he will be below group 1 level fallon, nothing to prove it yet just haven't been too taken

He's not been visually impressive but I like the way he sticks his head down and battles. I couldn't back Mars with dodgy money, he's obviously had setbacks as he hasn't been seen since Dundalk and that wasn't even a 'Back end maiden' either

SRFC

This will go off odds on after it wins the guineas :cool:


On another note O Brien unleashes a monster in Leopardstown on Wednesday keep your eyes peeled

Mgoraf

SRFC wrote: »

This will go off odds on after it wins the guineas :cool:


On another note O Brien unleashes a monster in Leopardstown on Wednesday keep your eyes peeled

The United States? Been waiting on that to run again..

SRFC

Mgoraf wrote: »

The United States? Been waiting on that to run again..

No,I'll post the horse if its declared after I back it

Johner

An O'Brien horse in a maiden is hardly going to be a big price anyway. It's probably Ruler Of The World.

Itziger

Don't know what the second and third are like but I thought that looked fairly laboured by Battle of M. yesterday. Wouldn't be plunging on him on the back of that. Could be loads more to come and he's got time to improve, but he'd want to.

UrbanSea

This will be some race


http://www.irishracing.com/cards/Newmarket_Thu_18th_Apr_2013_4_05.html

kfallon

Itziger wrote: »

Don't know what the second and third are like but I thought that looked fairly laboured by Battle of M. yesterday. Wouldn't be plunging on him on the back of that. Could be loads more to come and he's got time to improve, but he'd want to.

Not really sure what you wanted from him, desperate ground, seasonal reappearance, I was very happy with that.

Thought Indian Chief was very impressive yesterday and he initially ran in a maiden at Navan where O'Brien unleashes a Derby contender. Think Fame And Glory, Recital and Macarthur all won it in recent times.

Looking forward to seeing Foundry run soon too, he demolished his field when he won his maiden first time up.

Slattsy

I thought Indian Chief was fairly impressive yesterday too.
Showed a good turn of foot. Probably beat feck all but i liked the cut of his jib.

Battle of Marengo could be their main hope this year, i've a feeling Kingsbarns wont make the Derby the way O'Brien has been talking.

UrbanSea

One I thought could run in the derby goes in a handicap at Newmarket on Thursday. Hillstar would want to be winning off 83 to be running in it but he really caught the eye first time out at Salisbury and won at the second attempt, the horse he beat bolted up off 79 in a handicap so 83 shouldn't be beyond him Thursday, Danehill Dancer half brother to top class Crystal Capella who got better with time, I remember her beating Redwood 8 lengths one day at Newmarket and was most impressive. I know his form isn't classic stuff but he looks the type to make a better three year old

tryfix

I'm quite sweet on Dawn Approach ( 10/1 Paddy Power ) for the Derby, even more so than on his English 2,000 Guineas chance. I wasn't that blown away by his Dewhurst win and he seemed to have taken a bit of time to hit top gear the older he got. But, when he hits top gear he goes away from them, very reminiscent of his sire.

I know he's out of a speedy line on the Dam side, but the Dam is out of a Pleasant Colony 11.7f mare who has been bred to a sprint sire. There's a nice Bolger connection with Pleasant Colony being the sire of Jim's Epsom Derby second St Jovite. And the Dewhurst has an excellent record in producing Derby winners.

A blend of speed and stamina that should give him the edge, if he has trained on.

Slattsy

Cant see him staying myself.

andyman

tryfix wrote: »

I'm quite sweet on Dawn Approach ( 10/1 Paddy Power ) for the Derby, even more so than on his English 2,000 Guineas chance. I wasn't that blown away by his Dewhurst win and he seemed to have taken a bit of time to hit top gear the older he got. But, when he hits top gear he goes away from them, very reminiscent of his sire.

I thought this as well. Compare his first run to his Dewhurst run. You don't have to even go that far because the Coventry Stakes run is just as good an example. Very New Approach-like in the amount of time it took for him to get going.

I think he could manage 1m4f. I can't see Godolphin racing 1m4f with him though.

UrbanSea

At least we know he will have every chance given he didn't switch trainer

tryfix

Slattsy wrote: »

Cant see him staying myself.

That's why he's 10/1. Still, Rip Van Winkle stayed the trip well enough and he was out of an even speedier Dam line than Dawn Approach. There'll be a lot of horses backed with much more to prove than him.

UrbanSea

Ah I don't think Rip stayed it all that well, don't think he really got ten in the Irish Champion

tryfix

UrbanSea wrote: »

Ah I don't think Rip stayed it all that well, don't think he really got ten in the Irish Champion

Held up in midfield, ridden and effort 3f out, edging left after, switched right over 1f out, still edging left but stayed on strongly final furlong, went 4th last stride, not pace to reach winner

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=695691#topHorseTabs=horse_race_record&bottomHorseTabs=horse_form

Beaten only two lengths by Sea The Stars, and only 1/4l by Fame And Glory at Epsom. For a non stayer, that was a very credible effort at the trip and his only effort at the trip. He then went on to get within a length of Sea The Stars in the stiff uphill finish in the Eclipse over an extended ten. He just wasn't as good a horse the year after.

UrbanSea

Forgot that was the year after

tryfix

andyman wrote: »

I thought this as well. Compare his first run to his Dewhurst run. You don't have to even go that far because the Coventry Stakes run is just as good an example. Very New Approach-like in the amount of time it took for him to get going.

I think he could manage 1m4f. I can't see Godolphin racing 1m4f with him though.

They did it with his Daddy.:)

Anyhow, he's just a bit of a value bet. He and New Approach both won the Coventry and Dewhurst, and Generous came second in the Coventry as well as winning the Dewhurst and Derby. Early types with similar gears.

UrbanSea

UrbanSea wrote: »

One I thought could run in the derby goes in a handicap at Newmarket on Thursday. Hillstar would want to be winning off 83 to be running in it but he really caught the eye first time out at Salisbury and won at the second attempt, the horse he beat bolted up off 79 in a handicap so 83 shouldn't be beyond him Thursday, Danehill Dancer half brother to top class Crystal Capella who got better with time, I remember her beating Redwood 8 lengths one day at Newmarket and was most impressive. I know his form isn't classic stuff but he looks the type to make a better three year old

Read a piece on the sportinglife about this horse working poorly last week

Slattsy

The Guinneas is nearly always the best Derby trial.
I'll wait until after that before I bet.

Mars is one I have an eye on.

UrbanSea

Slattsy wrote: »

The Guinneas is nearly always the best Derby trial.
I'll wait until after that before I bet.

Mars is one I have an eye on.

Don't really agree with that we were just lucky with Sea the Stars and Camelot lately

Slattsy

UrbanSea wrote: »

Don't really agree with that we were just lucky with Sea the Stars and Camelot lately

Sir Percy and New Approach are another two..

UrbanSea

Pour Moi, Workforce, Galileo, Sinndar, High Chap, Motivator would have all been beaten about 20 lengths in a Guineas, Forty lengths for Fame and Glory, Main Sequence, Rewilding, At First Sight. Wouldn't bee overly reliant on the Guineas, but I'd be really impressed if a likely stayer ran well in the Guineas, Toronado for example.

Slattsy

In the last 7 runnings of the Guineas 4 Derby winners have come out of them.

A decent trial I'd call it :-)


And slightly off topic but interesting none the less, the 1000 guineas has produced 6 of the last 10 Oaks winners. ( Casual look was the only one i backed in both)

tryfix

UrbanSea wrote: »

Pour Moi, Workforce, Galileo, Sinndar, High Chap, Motivator would have all been beaten about 20 lengths in a Guineas, Forty lengths for Fame and Glory, Main Sequence, Rewilding, At First Sight. Wouldn't bee overly reliant on the Guineas, but I'd be really impressed if a likely stayer ran well in the Guineas, Toronado for example.

The record of Guineas winners or 2yo GP1 winners of the Dewhurst or Racing Post Trophy who've gone on to run in the Guineas and or the Derby is.

2012. Camelot ( RPT ). 1st Newmarket, 1st Epsom. Parish Hall ( Dewhurst ) DNR that season.

2011. DNR at Epsom. ( Frankel ( Dewhurst ) 1st Newmarket would probably have won at Epsom. Casamento ( RPT ) flopped in Guineas and didn't run at Epsom.

2010. Beethoven ( Dewhurst ) DNR at Newmarket or Epsom. St Nicholas Abbey ( RPT ) 5th at Newmarket was certainly good enough for Epsom but DNR there.

2009. Sea The Stars, 1st at Newmarket, 1st at Epsom. Intense Focus ( Dewhurst ) DNR at Newmarket or Epsom. Crowded house ( RPT ) did not run at Newmarkt, 6th at Epsom after flopping in the Dante.

2008. New Approach ( Dewhurst ), 2nd at Newmarket, 1st at Epsom. Ibn Khaldun ( RPT ) flopped at Newmarket DNR at Epsom or again that season.

2007. Teofilo ( Dewhurst ) DNR at Newmarket or Epsom, Authorized RPT winner 1st at Epsom via Dante.

2006. Sir Percy ( Dewhurst ) 2nd Newmarket, 1st Epsom.

2005. Shamardal ( Dewhurst ) DNR, at Newmarket or Epsom. Motivator RPT winner 1st at Epsom via Dante.

2004. Milk It Mick ( Dewhurst ) flopped at Newmarket and DNR at Epsom. American Post ( RPT ) DNR at Newmarket and finished 6th at Epsom despite being stoutly bred.

2003. Tout Seul ( Dewhurst ) 4th at Newmarket DNR at Epsom. Brian Boru ( RPT ) DNR at Newmarket flopped at Epsom.

2002. Rock Of Gibraltar ( Dewhurst ) won at Newmarket DNR at Epsom. High Chaparral ( RPT ) DNR at Newmarket 1st at Epsom.

2001. Tobougg ( Dewhurst ) 9th at Newmarket, 3rd to Galileo ( Derrinstown ) at Epsom despite not having Stamina either side of his Pedigree. Dilshaan ( RPT ) DNR at Newmarket, flopped at Epsom after winning the Dante on route.

The Newmarket 2,000 guineas placed Horses without a win in either the Dewhurst or Racing Post Trophy as 2yo's don't win the Derby.

2012. Camelot 1st at Newmarket and 1st at Epsom ( RPT winner ) Other placed horses DNR.
2011. Newmarket 3rd Native Khan, 5th Epsom.
2010. Placed horses DNR.
2009. Sea The Stars 1st at Newmarket and 1st at Epsom, Gan Amhrais, 3rd Newmarket, 11th Epsom. Rip Van Winkle 4th Newmarket 4th Epsom.
2008. New Approach ( Dewhurst ) 2nd at Newmarket 1st at Epsom. Other placed horse DNR at Epsom.
2007. Newmarket 5th Eagle Mountain, 2nd Epsom.
2006. Newmarket 2nd Sir Percy ( Dewhurst winner ), 1st at Epsom. Other placed horses at Newmarket DNR at Epsom.
2005. Newmarket 4th Oratorio 10th at Epsom. Newmarket 5th Dubawi, 3rd at Epsom.
2004. Newmarket 2nd Snow Ridge 7th at Epsom. Newmarket 6th Salford City 5th at Epsom.
2003. Newmarket 1st Refuse to Bend, 13th at Epsom. Norse Dancer 3rd at Newmarket 4th at Epsom.
2002. Newmarket 2nd Hawk Wing, 2nd at Epsom.
2001. Newmarket 1st Golan, 2nd to Galileo.

It's a great guide to the Derby, If the winner or placed horses turn up, you can ignore them for the Derby, unless the winner is a lightly raced type who didn't win a GP 1 2yo race, or unless it won the Dewhurst or Racing Post Trophy as a two year old.:)

UrbanSea

My point Tryfix was not necessarily Guineas winners go on to run well in the Derby. If there was a horse who I thought wanted further ran well in the Guineas is one I'd want, but how to know which one at the time, there could be five or six

tryfix

UrbanSea wrote: »

My point Tryfix was not necessarily Guineas winners go on to run well in the Derby. If there was a horse who I thought wanted further ran well in the Guineas is one I'd want, but how to know which one at the time, there could be five or six

I was more or less just sorting out the Guineas -> Derby stats in my own way, and coming to the conclusion that there were a lot of maybe horses over the years that could all have been filtered out of the Derby reckoning by taking the 2,000 Guineas runners who hadn't actually won the 2,000 Guineas and only keeping those who had placed in the first 4, but with the strict provision that they had won the Dewhurst or the Racing Post Trophy. Which works very well, as it excludes horse who look the part, but on the statistics really have very little chance of winning.

In the old days a brilliantly fast Dewhurst and Guineas winner would have gone on to contest the Derby regardless of their ability to stay, things have changed with the true miler types avoiding the Derby more by the year as they have plenty of other options.

As to what ones to pick from the 2,000 Guineas that qualify because of the Dewhurst and Racing Post Trophy stats. There's only two possibles and Kingsbarn doesn't look like he'll be turning up. Which means Dawn Approach, but only if he runs well in the guineas.

Which leaves the possibility that something like Sea The Stars will take the guineas. but they're rare and we'll worry about that when it happens. Can't see anything coming out of the woodwork that could do the double, unless Mars is a freak. As for Toronado, which I think you're hinting at, he could well win the Guineas, but for a Hannon horse to do the Guineas-Derby double, it would be asking for a miracle.

Then there's the traditional trials route, which means the Dante and Stoute's Telescope or something from one of the top English yards putting themselves in the picture. And O'Brien's Derrinstown winner, if he's a very promising sort. The rest of the field is a haze of promising well bred types, but are they really worthwhile ante-post prospects until they've gone and proven something?

UrbanSea

I wasn't hinting at Toronado doing both, I've thought ever since he beat Dundonnel in the Champagne that he was my Derby horse- I loved his attitude, what I mean is that if he were to run well in the Guineas, even if it were fifth or sixth if he was finishing like a train, then I'd be happy. I didn't think he'd win today quite like he did.

No way is it worth backing those types unless they've done something. An all weather maiden winner as second favourite? Even if Mars does win but you've backed him solely after the maiden then you've being suckered into the hype. Same with Telescope, how two maiden winners can be in the first four of the betting for what is supposedly Europe's best middle distance race for 3 year olds is laughable.

tryfix

UrbanSea wrote: »

I wasn't hinting at Toronado doing both, I've thought ever since he beat Dundonnel in the Champagne that he was my Derby horse- I loved his attitude, what I mean is that if he were to run well in the Guineas, even if it were fifth or sixth if he was finishing like a train, then I'd be happy. I didn't think he'd win today quite like he did.

No way is it worth backing those types unless they've done something. An all weather maiden winner as second favourite? Even if Mars does win but you've backed him solely after the maiden then you've being suckered into the hype. Same with Telescope, how two maiden winners can be in the first four of the betting for what is supposedly Europe's best middle distance race for 3 year olds is laughable.

Yes, that's very fair comment about the top two in the Derby betting and Stoute hasn't exactly been setting the World on fire, but that is his preferred route to the Derby and he has won the race 3 times in the last ten years and two of those wins were with Dante winners. Every other winner of the Derby bar the French Pour Moi ( even Pour Moi was from the Coolmore owned stable and a lightly raced 2 yo maiden winner ) coming from the winners of the Guineas and or the Dewhurst and Racing Post Trophy/Dante winners route.

The recent statistics don't offer much hope of figuring out how that tight band of statistics will be cracked. Who would you put at the top of the Derby betting?

I wouldn't want to be on Toronado in the Derby if he ran in the 2,000 and finished worse than 2nd, and even a second for him in the 2,000 would be defying the stats for him to go on and win the Derby.

UrbanSea

Not sure who I'd have at the top to be honest, I'm not entirely sure the winner has necessarily exposed himself yet so it could well be one of the maiden winners. Thought that French horse yesterday was impressive but he won't be going. Suppose a lot will be revealed at the Derrinstown and Dante as you said. At big odds, I'd love to see Fantastic Moon run a nice trial. Looked good early on at two before levelling off, which is quite unlike a Dalakhani

tryfix

UrbanSea wrote: »

Not sure who I'd have at the top to be honest, I'm not entirely sure the winner has necessarily exposed himself yet so it could well be one of the maiden winners. Thought that French horse yesterday was impressive but he won't be going. Suppose a lot will be revealed at the Derrinstown and Dante as you said. At big odds, I'd love to see Fantastic Moon run a nice trial. Looked good early on at two before levelling off, which is quite unlike a Dalakhani

I'd have Dawn Approach and Kingsbarn ( with a run ) as favourites, with Battle of Marengo, Telescope, Toronado and Mars close up behind them.

SRFC

As I posted when creating this thread lads Mars is the winner,he's home and hosed Im just waiting to collect :cool:


Not to go too off topic but Im laying Dawn Approach in the Guineas,early two year old im sure theres plenty running for me to have a decent win lay at short odds and a big place lay aswell think he's got no chance to be honest dont like him at all.

sting60

Dawn Approach will win the Guineas.Hannons horse beat a horse who clearly doesnt stay and its the bookmaker hype.4/1 toronado is criminal value to win the Guineas and anybody who takes that price needs to see a shrink.

kiers47

sting60 wrote: »

Dawn Approach will win the Guineas.Hannons horse beat a horse who clearly doesnt stay and its the bookmaker hype.4/1 toronado is criminal value to win the Guineas and anybody who takes that price needs to see a shrink.

To be fair I do agree with you in I think Dawn Approach is the most likely winner. But if you expect any bookmaker with a view to making money to price hannons horse up any bigger than 4-5/1you are the one who needs the shrink. He is a worthy second fav!
What do you expect 6/4 fav 10/1 the field?

Anyone know if garswood is entered in the guineas or the derby?

restingpilgrim

droidman123 wrote: »

Anyone know if garswood is entered in the guineas or the derby?

He goes for the Guineas not sure if he is entered in the derby.

sting60

kiers47 wrote: »

To be fair I do agree with you in I think Dawn Approach is the most likely winner. But if you expect any bookmaker with a view to making money to price hannons horse up any bigger than 4-5/1you are the one who needs the shrink. He is a worthy second fav!
What do you expect 6/4 fav 10/1 the field?

He gives me the impression that a mile is to short and he is a major lay at 4/1.On breeding that would also confirm that fact.The horse nobody has mentioned is Moohaajim 20/1 from Marco Bottis yard.He will need fast ground to stay the mile but nothing comes near Dawn Approach on 2yr old form and Bolger has said he has thrived and filled out over the winter.

Gringo180

Did anybody even watch Toronado in action yesterday, the field were hard at 2f out and Hughes didnt even budge at this point, when they seemed like they were closing a furlong out he niggled him along slightly and the horse just took off dont think he used the whip once. He annihilated them carrying a penalty and will come on a good bit for the outing, the horse looks all speed to me even if his breeding suggests otherwise.

If that was a Coolmore horse that put that kind of performance in yesterday the media would be creaming themselves and would be much shorter than 4/1.

sting60

Gringo180 wrote: »

Did anybody even watch Toronado in action yesterday, the field were hard at 2f out and Hughes didnt even budge at this point, when they seemed like they were closing a furlong out he niggled him along slightly and the horse just took off dont think he used the whip once. He annihilated them carrying a penalty and will come on a good bit for the outing, the horse looks all speed to me even if his breeding suggests otherwise.

If that was a Coolmore horse that put that kind of performance in yesterday the media would be creaming themselves and would be much shorter than 4/1.

Actually he was 1lb better in than the second.He most certainly does not look all speed[stayer] but everybody sees something different.

Gringo180

sting60 wrote: »

Actually he was 1lb better in than the second.He most certainly does not look all speed[stayer] but everybody sees something different.

I am pretty sure Hughes is quoted as saying he shows so much speed that he is now doubting that he will get The Derby trip.

UrbanSea

Fantastic Moon goes in the Classic Trial tomorrow should give us pointers for Epsom. at 40/1 think he could be a good each way bet

aidan24326

what about this Eye Of The Storm Aidan O'Briens horse, goes in the 3.15 Sandown today and is entered in The Derby. He any good?

sting60

What ever happens in the 2,000 guineas will tell the tale.Could this be a poor year for Ballydoyle ??

UrbanSea

aidan24326 wrote: »

what about this Eye Of The Storm Aidan O'Briens horse, goes in the 3.15 Sandown today and is entered in The Derby. He any good?

I'd say he is at best third or forth in their Derby picture but you never know how they train on he could hammer them today

sting60 wrote: »

What ever happens in the 2,000 guineas will tell the tale.Could this be a poor year for Ballydoyle ??

Not sure this is the first year they have several nice looking milers with the Henrythenavigators and the usual nice looking middle distance runners

Gringo180

aidan24326 wrote: »

what about this Eye Of The Storm Aidan O'Briens horse, goes in the 3.15 Sandown today and is entered in The Derby. He any good?

One thing is for sure is that he will love the extra 2f, looks all stamina to me maybe a horse who would be more geared towards a tilt at The St. Leger.