Is the American Dream over?

Tigerandahalf

We have had austerity in Europe now for around 5 years. The previous generations borrowed and governments built up debt and economies became uncompetitive. Now we seem to be rebalancing with this austerity programme.
A lot of talk lately re fiscal cliffs in America and how agreements between Republicans and Democrats are needed to turn America around. However is it inevitable that America is going down the same route and the dream of the better life there is over.
What will this mean for Ireland given we rely on them for exports? Where will all of this end?

If a wrong forum can ye change it. Cheers

Super-Rush

The dream ended over there ages ago.

Where To

The well known economists 'Cast' put your very quandry down in a song.

So what's it all about? Do you really wanna know?
Do you wanna give or do you just wanna take it all and go?
'Coz you've got to let it out, if you wanna let it in
Got to let a little bit lovin' in to make it all begin

You've got to find time to pick the right time to make a change
'Coz it's a fine time to pick the right time to make a change
So when you gonna learn that it takes all sorts
Don't you think our life would be a little drab
If we had the same thoughts?

crockholm

Where To wrote: »

The well known economists 'Cast' put your very quandry down in a song.

So what's it all about? Do you really wanna know?
Do you wanna give or do you just wanna take it all and go?
'Coz you've got to let it out, if you wanna let it in
Got to let a little bit lovin' in to make it all begin

You've got to find time to pick the right time to make a change
'Coz it's a fine time to pick the right time to make a change
So when you gonna learn that it takes all sorts
Don't you think our life would be a little drab
If we had the same thoughts?

What fuc*ing radio stations do you listen to?:D

C.K Dexter Haven

The middle class in America have had a huge wake up call. The elite at the very top are richer now than ever before but the middle classes are being totally eroded. So yes, very much so, the dream is over.

Where To

crockholm wrote: »

What fuc*ing radio stations do you listen to?:D

I like all the songs.:)

Dwork

We in the West have lost our way, very much so. We value the value-less, x-factor, cheap, celebrity, our excessive rights and a sense of overwhelming entitlement. We tie up business and producers in nonsensical red-tape and kill our competiveness. Credit is king and real productivity is de-valued. Our kids want to be singers and actors, "only fools work" is an accepted view and wearing a suit is regarded as being superior to wearing a boiler suit. We have it arse-ways, and there are Billions of hungry, lean, hard working Asians and Indians who are going to eat us for breakfast in the next few years. It is not realistic to single out the USA in this regard.

gurramok

America's big giant credit card spree is coming to an end. Only way to pay off the debt is to raise taxes to an European level but try tell that to the average yank who thinks paying taxes is abhorrent and yet expect quality services in return!

cartell_best

An insincere and evil friend is more to be feared than a wild beast; a wild beast may wound your body, but an evil friend will wound your mind.

md23040

America IMO remains on the cusp of a major economic revival as a result of companies re-shoring from Asia, cheap energy costs (natural gas/coal) and wage productivity.

The country energy-wise will be self sufficient from a balance of payments point of view, and energy is the major economic war to win.

gallag

Its simple, capitalism makes the world a game of monopoly, the rich are making more faster and easier than ever. If the richest 1% spent half their money it would stimulate the world economy and end hunger.

Dwork

md23040 wrote: »

America IMO remains on the cusp of a major economic revival as a result of companies re-shoring from Asia, cheap energy costs (natural gas/coal) and wage productivity.

The country energy-wise will be self sufficient from a balance of payments point of view, and energy is the major economic war to win.

Shut the front door Captain America. Your as5 is owned by China. The US is so buried in debt that lad down the sinkhole has a brighter future. Untill ye wake up to your economic reality, knock your disasterous, bankrupting world Police dream on the head and knuckle back down to productive work and output, your future is about as bright as the lights in downtown Detroit.

SEPT 23 1989

Some people were awake during the American Dream

monkeypants

The American dream ended with the seventies.

Tigerandahalf

I was reading an article in the Irish times today about a shipbuilding factory in Virginia. It employs 22,000 people and they build the aircraft carriers for the US Army. Cutbacks on the defence budget mean major layoffs and the cafes and shops reliant on it will be in trouble.
The Shale gas seems to be a winner for the US in that it is giving them cheap energy but is energy the biggest factor? At the end of the day you need people to buy your goods and what economies out there now are going to be buying American goods given that western economies are in the doldrums. Will it require a bust in Asia to bring a balance back?

md23040

Dwork wrote: »

Shut the front door Captain America. Your as5 is owned by China. The US is so buried in debt that lad down the sinkhole has a brighter future. Untill ye wake up to your economic reality, knock your disasterous, bankrupting world Police dream on the head and knuckle back down to productive work and output, your future is about as bright as the lights in downtown Detroit.

Great glib sound bites. Here's one - you're talking out your arse.

What are the implications of America being self sufficient and exporting Natural Gas LNG. What's America's energy reserves and what affect does cheap energy have on an economy.

token101

No, it's just the idea behind it has expanded to most of Western Europe, Australia, etc, etc. If you work hard and you are committed enough you can really go as far as you want in life.

Dwork

monkeypants wrote: »

The American dream ended with the seventies.

If they'd just stop dreaming, they'd be grand. Turning their industrial focus from warmongering to actual productivity might be a good start. If they could take back the 40' containers of hard currency they p1ssed away in Iraq and Afghanistan in order to prop up their defunct and corrupt arm-industry they might have an actual industrial base to build a proper new world superpower out of. The one they have now has a leak. Pumping it full of Chinese currency will not keep the juggernaut rolling.

SunKing

I'd say that the Brazilian economy will improve quicker than the US one

Where To

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

I was reading an article in the Irish times today about a shipbuilding factory in Virginia. It employs 22,000 people and they build the aircraft carriers for the US Army. Cutbacks on the defence budget mean major layoffs and the cafes and shops reliant on it will be in trouble.
The Shale gas seems to be a winner for the US in that it is giving them cheap energy but is energy the biggest factor? At the end of the day you need people to buy your goods and what economies out there now are going to be buying American goods given that western economies are in the doldrums. Will it require a bust in Asia to bring a balance back?

They have exponentially expanding economies above and below them, they'll be OK for a while yet.

md23040

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

I was reading an article in the Irish times today about a shipbuilding factory in Virginia. It employs 22,000 people and they build the aircraft carriers for the US Army. Cutbacks on the defence budget mean major layoffs and the cafes and shops reliant on it will be in trouble.
The Shale gas seems to be a winner for the US in that it is giving them cheap energy but is energy the biggest factor? At the end of the day you need people to buy your goods and what economies out there now are going to be buying American goods given that western economies are in the doldrums. Will it require a bust in Asia to bring a balance back?

Where's the Shiller index, how's the latest labour market reports, what's the CCI presently at etc (consumer index reports).

Dwork

md23040 wrote: »

Great glib sound bites. Here's one - you're talking out your arse.

What are the implications of America being self sufficient and exporting Natural Gas LNG. What's America's energy reserves and what affect does cheap energy have on an economy.

Dream on buddy. I work in Ireland, the UK, Europe, Asia and India. Your energy reserves are all ringfenced by GI's in the middle east. Your shale reserves are bolloxology of the "windfarm" kind. It takes too much to extract too little. The Political subtext is the only reason for their economic viability and if real-world costs were taken into consideration, your as55es are toast. When Frakking is finally exposed as the environmental disaster that it is, your Natural gas will be a bill that will cripple future generations of Americans. Blow smoke up someone elses hole, mines busy, generating logs. America is the worlds version of Anglo, a vision of smoke and mirrors, credit swaps, hedges, stops and leverage. When the tide goes out, you see who's swimming in the nip. Dude, your shorts are missing.

crockholm

America will be back,if you use construction as an indicator of how the populace feels,things are starting to gear up again. they do have a track record for ingeniuity,but will the just outsource the jobs?
One of my favourite scenes from "The Wire" is Frank Sobotka and Spiros standing at the waterfront looking at the disused sugar factory and says words to the effect of" we used to make things in this country, now everybody's just got their hand in someone else's pocket"

Dr. Greenthumb

SunKing wrote: »

I'd say that the Brazilian economy will improve quicker than the US one

Brazil's economy will be back to usual after the WC & Olympics are over, it's a false boom at the moment which will leave the country with more debt than before it started.

Dwork

crockholm wrote: »

America will be back,if you use construction as an indicator of how the populace feels,things are starting to gear up again. they do have a track record for ingeniuity,but will the just outsource the jobs?
One of my favourite scenes from "The Wire" is Frank Sobotka and Spiros standing at the waterfront looking at the disused sugar factory and says words to the effect of" we used to make things in this country, now everybody's just got their hand in someone else's pocket"

Construction is not the indicator to go by. It's non-productive long term. It's a bill, not an invoice. Balance of trade is where it's at. If you are selling stuff, real stuff, tangible things people want and need, that's productivity. Everything else is just churn.

Chuck Stone

Ah it isn't. If you can be born into wealth and get yourself an ivy league college education where you'll meet the right people to secure your future the sky's the limit.

Tigerandahalf

One reason for is that America is beginning to go the way of the European welfare system. With Obama in power more is being spent on healthcare for the less well off. Rightly so I guess. That means more taxes for the worker trying to make his way.

Chuck Stone

Dwork wrote: »

If you are selling stuff, real stuff, tangible things people want and need, that's productivity. Everything else is just churn.

Frank Sobotka: You know what the trouble is, Brucey? We used to make **** in this country, build ****. Now we just put our hand in the next guy's pocket.

The Wire.

.

Tigerandahalf

So what are the Yanks good at or have that nobody else does? What advantages stand out for them?

md23040

Dwork wrote: »

Dream on buddy. I work in Ireland, the UK, Europe, Asia and India.

Some commute. Where in Asia have you worked?

Btw re America just goggle for any reports. Here's one

http://m.cnbc.com//id/100450133/US_Is_on_FastTrack_to_Energy_Independence_Study

America had a great deal and used China for its own end, buying their cheap low end production crap in exchange for 30 year promissory T-bills.

crockholm

Dwork wrote: »

Construction is not the indicator to go by. It's non-productive long term. It's a bill, not an invoice. Balance of trade is where it's at. If you are selling stuff, real stuff, tangible things people want and need, that's productivity. Everything else is just churn.

you gotta build office blocks,
As I said,what they're going to do with the manufacturing,anyones guess.
Not 100% with you on the construction point,see what's happening to the cities in India and China? Holey moley!!!

crockholm

Chuck Stone wrote: »

.

sorry for the mis-quote : (

Chuck Stone

md23040 wrote: »

America had a great deal and used China for its own end, buying their cheap low end production crap in exchange for 30 year promissory T-bills.

What stratum of American society though? And who's future was sold on the back of the T-bills?

crockholm wrote: »

sorry for the mis-quote : (

What?

Dwork

crockholm wrote: »

you gotta build office blocks,
As I said,what they're going to do with the manufacturing,anyones guess.
Not 100% with you on the construction point,see what's happening to the cities in India and China? Holey moley!!!

Nope. No. Na ah. Neigh. No you don't. Sh1t don't get built in offices, it

gets billed in offices. When you have; OFFICES Factory you're upside

down, you need FACTORIES Offices to be productive. When the west wakes up to this and stops tearing down factories to build houses and offices, we might have a better chance. Here in Ireland we've become a nation of warehouses. Warehouses store stuff. Stuff other people got paid to make.

ScumLord

token101 wrote: »

No, it's just the idea behind it has expanded to most of Western Europe, Australia, etc, etc. If you work hard and you are committed enough you can really go as far as you want in life.

A fantasy that works for a tiny minority. For the majority no matter how hard they work they will fail. There just isn't enough room for everyone to succeed. Many Americans work more than one job just to keep a roof over their heads they simply don't have time to improve their position in life.

The thing about the global economy is that it is a fantasy. We made it up and if things get really bad we can just decide to change everything. I don't really see things getting that bad, there is no real crisis. We haven't ran out of anything and we have the same influx, or even more resources each year.

As long as the people have more to lose than they currently have they won't do anything. At the moment the lives of most Europeans and Americans are pretty good even if they are poor by western standards.

Where To

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

So what are the Yanks good at or have that nobody else does? What advantages stand out for them?

You've already answered that one yourself, they have 'the dream'.

Cultural and economic ties with every continent, region, country, city, town village and hovel in the known universe helps too.

Dwork

crockholm wrote: »

you gotta build office blocks,
As I said,what they're going to do with the manufacturing,anyones guess.
Not 100% with you on the construction point,see what's happening to the cities in India and China? Holey moley!!!

Oh but lordy that's their achilles heel. They're bringing it in so fast and pis5ing it up on walls that it has become the chink in their armour. Chinas weakness is it's fondness for building follies. If they knocked that crap on its head they'd be unstoppable. The domestic(non-productive) construction industry is dragging down the Chinese economy, and it will do the same for India. As will entitlement and the loss of "hunger". Eventually, an equilibrium will be reached. BTW, Yank boy, I'm not a "Sky is falling type", it's all just a game anyway and eventually, God will sort out who won.

crockholm

Dwork wrote: »

Oh but lordy that's their achilles heel. They're bringing it in so fast and pis5ing it up on walls that it has become the chink in their armour. Chinas weakness is it's fondness for building follies. If they knocked that crap on its head they'd be unstoppable. The domestic(non-productive) construction industry is dragging down the Chinese economy, and it will do the same for India. As will entitlement and the loss of "hunger". Eventually, an equilibrium will be reached. BTW, Yank boy, I'm not a "Sky is falling type", it's all just a game anyway and eventually, God will sort out who won.

save,save save and live in a cave?

Dwork

crockholm wrote: »

save,save save and live in a cave?

You live in an Office block? Houses are nicer. Factories pay for houses. Offices leech off factories.

E.S.T.

The debt crisis in the US is half manufactured for political gain. It COULD become a serious problem if they continued the way they have been operating but even the dimwits in Congress won't take it over the edge. The US can basically bring in small cuts compared to Europe and the debt will stabilize and with population growth and economic growth the debt will decrease compared to GDP.

Kess73

From 1992 but still apt today.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0iRwPuRHPk

Rise so high, yet so far to fall
A plan of dignity and balance for all
Political breakthrough, euphoria's high
More borrowed money,more borrowed time

Backed in a corner, caught up in the race
Means to an end ended in disgrace
Perspective is lost in the spirit of the chase


Foreclosure of a dream
Those visions never seen
Until all is lost,personal Holocaust
Foreclosure of a dream


Barren land that once filled a need
Are worthless now, dead without a deed
Slipping away from an iron grip
Nature's scales are forced to tip

The heartland cries, loss of all pride
To leave ain't believing, so try and be tried
Insufficient funds, insanity and suicide


Foreclosure of a dream
Those visions never seen
Until all is lost, personal holocaust
Foreclosure of a dream


The congress will push me to raise the taxes
And I'll say, "No, read my lips"
Read my lips, read my lips

Now with new hope some will be proud
This is no hoax, no one pushed out
Receive a reprieve and be a pioneer
Break new ground of a new frontier

New ideas will surely get by
No deed, or dividend, some may ask, "Why?"
You'll find the solution, the answers in the sky

Rise so high, yet so far to fall
A plan of dignity and balance for all
Political breakthrough, euphoria's high
More borrowed money, more borrowed time


Foreclosure of a dream
Those visions never seen
Until all is lost, personal holocaust
Foreclosure of a dream

Foreclosure of a dream
Those visions never seenUntil all is lost, personal holocaust
Foreclosure of a dream
Holocaust

Dwork

Megadeth are well crap, in fairness.

KyussBishop

The US fiscal-cliff/debt-ceiling/'sequestration' stuff, is a made-up problem, which Democrats and Republicans are working together with, in order to manufacture a justification for decimating social services and healthcare in the US.

There is no reason the US can't keep on going as normal, ignoring the debt-ceiling and continuing to spend their way out of the crisis; there would be no negative repercussions from this, whereas this fiscal-cliff nonsense would push the US right back into austerity and economic downturn.


The 'American Dream' was only ever an excuse to encourage people to buy bigger houses, bigger cars, more consumer products etc., and in general to get into deeper debt; so yes, that's all come crashing down now, and will hopefully never return (but probably will, and hasn't really fully left us yet, which is a disgrace seeing as how it's caused so much damage in the last 5 years).

That doesn't mean the 'American Dream' can't be revived in a new (progressive) form, it's just that for the next time, you have to pry it the fúck out of the hands, of conservative wealthy corporate/private/financial/political interests, so they don't corrupt it into a means of putting most of society into debt, so that they can engage in rent-seeking and leverage power over society.


Don't mistake private (consumer) debt with public debt though, because governments don't run like households; excessive private debt is definitely a bad thing, but public 'debt' is not a problem for countries in control over their own currency (like the US is, but which EU countries are not), as countries with sovereign currency can always repay their debts, and are not at the mercy of bond markets; that is another much more lenghty topic though.

jank

I am quie bullish on the US. This year will be a good year for them no matter what damage Obama tries to do. Their economy is getting competitive again, manufacturing is growing, corporate balance sheets are much better than 2008.

Meanwhile in Europe things are still in a state of shock. From my point of view the economists here in Oz have no respect for the eu as they can't get heir **** in order. 5 years latter and its still a mess, that is why the US will do so well now. Europeans need to cut their cloth to measure. They can't afford a gold platted welfare system when their economies and demography are so bad. In my opinion Europe in finished until it gets its head around that.

rossie1977

Chuck Stone wrote: »

Ah it isn't. If you can be born into wealth and get yourself an ivy league college education where you'll meet the right people to secure your future the sky's the limit.

no doubt but then again if you are born into wealth anywhere the same can be said, there are 16 year old kids doing wheelies with ferraris somewhere in the uae right now as we speak

the whole premise of the american dream was opportunity no matter your social standing

md23040 wrote: »

What are the implications of America being self sufficient and exporting Natural Gas LNG. What's America's energy reserves and what affect does cheap energy have on an economy.

america will never be self sufficient, the us is home to about 4% of the worlds population and uses nearly 30% of the total energy output

jank

KyussBishop wrote: »

The US fiscal-cliff/debt-ceiling/'sequestration' stuff, is a made-up problem, which Democrats and Republicans are working together with, in order to manufacture a justification for decimating social services and healthcare in the US.

There is no reason the US can't keep on going as normal, ignoring the debt-ceiling and continuing to spend their way out of the crisis; there would be no negative repercussions from this, whereas this fiscal-cliff nonsense would push the US right back into austerity and economic downturn.


The 'American Dream' was only ever an excuse to encourage people to buy bigger houses, bigger cars, more consumer products etc., and in general to get into deeper debt; so yes, that's all come crashing down now, and will hopefully never return (but probably will, and hasn't really fully left us yet, which is a disgrace seeing as how it's caused so much damage in the last 5 years).

That doesn't mean the 'American Dream' can't be revived in a new (progressive) form, it's just that for the next time, you have to pry it the fúck out of the hands, of conservative wealthy corporate/private/financial/political interests, so they don't corrupt it into a means of putting most of society into debt, so that they can engage in rent-seeking and leverage power over society.


Don't mistake private (consumer) debt with public debt though, because governments don't run like households; excessive private debt is definitely a bad thing, but public 'debt' is not a problem for countries in control over their own currency (like the US is, but which EU countries are not), as countries with sovereign currency can always repay their debts, and are not at the mercy of bond markets; that is another much more lenghty topic though.

If central banks keep printing money to bail out government debt inflation will take off. Economics 101. Hence why governments have to balance the books. You can't run a deficit forever.

Killer Wench

*Alarm goes off*

*Presses Snooze*

*Falls back to sleep*

ScumLord

jank wrote: »

I am quie bullish on the US. This year will be a good year for them no matter what damage Obama tries to do. Their economy is getting competitive again, manufacturing is growing, corporate balance sheets are much better than 2008.

The Americans are no better than the Chinese at manufacturing.

The Europeans and even the Irish are light years ahead of most countries when it comes to manufacturing it's just that Europeans don't want to pay for high quality European manufacturing.

KyussBishop

jank wrote: »

If central banks keep printing money to bail out government debt inflation will take off. Economics 101. Hence why governments have to balance the books. You can't run a deficit forever.

The US doesn't even need to print money, as they have enormous room to just fund through debt, and even owe a significant portion of the public debt straight back to the US government itself (which if written off, has no consequences and gives loads of room against the made-up 'debt ceiling').

If they wanted to fund through money creation (which they don't even need to), nothing stopping them from just keeping that within inflation targets either; you don't just print a small portion of money, and then "whoops, hyperinflation!" like goldbugs make out.

DEFTLEFTHAND

Ireland doesn't register on their map anymore, that vote pattern between micks and guineas has become diluted over time. These days the Irish and Italians are white middle/working class Americans.

America will always pull out of trouble, they are the greatest country in the world. :(

madchild

Yankie doodle dream is well over for anyone unless u are mexican