Longshotvalue @ Cheltenham

longshotvalue

Spirit River

This horse won the Coral Cup of a mark of 141 in 2010 as a 5yo. He had a poor experience as a chaser, and came back last year in the same race, and travelled exceptionally well and was certain to place until falling at the last of a mark of 145. After a poor couple of runs this year on unsuitable bad ground he is in a few races at the festival including the Coral Cup of a mark of 139. There is no question that he will be primed for the festival and proved last year that poor form won’t have any bearing.


He is 33/1 for the Coral/Pertempts/Martin Pipe. With Non Runner no bet at paddy power, he can be backed in each race without risk. He’ll probably run in the Coral but I wouldn’t mind him going for the weaker Martin Pipe race.

2 Points EW 33/1 Paddy Power NRNB, each of those 3 races.

Hulk Hands

I doubt he would've placed last year, was all out jumping the last. Was more likely to finish 6th

longshotvalue

Hulk Hands wrote: »

I doubt he would've placed last year, was all out jumping the last. Was more likely to finish 6th

Hard to say, the way the horses finished it wouldnt have taken much to be 4th, but the 6lbs less should put him in with a great chance at that price.

UrbanSea

Think Micheal Flips represents a bit of value in the Byrne Plate. Rated 137 now, he hasn't been seen at his best this year due to the ground having started off the season with a rating of 146. Didn't run all that badly a few runs ago when he did get good to soft ground at Ascot off 143, beaten six length by Ulck du Lin who won again off ten pounds higher.

He's down to his last winning mark when he beat The Cockney Mackem (pair clear) who went on to finish second in the Byrne plate last year off a six pound higher mark. Micheal Flip's two length second behind For Non Stop in the Betfair Novices looks like good form too.

33/1 is a decent price

longshotvalue

Fruity O’Rooney looks ready to run a great race again in the JLT on the first day. He was very good last year to be second and after a series of decent runs this year probably on less than suitable ground he is in here again with 1lb less than last year. The Stable has hit form and I think he should be a pretty strong favourite here. There is no chance of him going off at 14/1 on the day so ill happily take the 14/1 available NRNB in a few places

1 Point win 14/1 NRNB 365/Paddy Power and others

UrbanSea

Backed Fruity O'Rooney on Friday at 20/1 with Ladbrokes

lorenzo87

I do articles and tips for a cheltenham site www.thecheltenhamfestival.ie , all my fancies are on the site.

Some of my outside fancies are:

Lord Windermere e/w for the RSA @ 20/1
Medinas e/w for the Coral Cup @ 20/1
South South West e/w for the Fred Winter @ 33/1
Argocat e/w for the Jewson @ 20/1
Brackloon High e/w for the Kim Muir @ 33/1
Cape Tribulation e/w for the Gold Cup @ 25/1
Fruity O'Rooney for the JLT e/w @ 20/1

longshotvalue

RichieLawlessness wrote: »

Backed Fruity O'Rooney on Friday at 20/1 with Ladbrokes

Jelous.. he looks to have a great chance

UrbanSea

Hopefully aidan. Obvious but Our Mick looked to have improved last time and would have given Katenko a good run last time if he hadn't fallen, wouldn't be a backer at those odds though in a wide open race

dahat

Still 16/1 in Boylesports shops though 14/1 online,strange...

Harry Angstrom

He's not a certain runner yet but with Boyles going NRNB for the race, Irish Saint at 20/1 is a bet to nothing e/w for the Triumph Hurdle. The betting on this race looks very lopsided. Irish Saint was only a couple of lengths behind Rolling Star at Cheltenham and then won the Adonis at Kempton, yet Rolling Star is a quarter the price of Irish Saint. Nicholls hinted that they might keep him for Aintree but it's money back if Irish Saint doesn't turn up at Cheltenham.

Nulty

RichieLawlessness wrote: »

Backed Fruity O'Rooney on Friday at 20/1 with Ladbrokes

I've had him since January @ 20/1. Won't win me any more money though.

Johner

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

He's not a certain runner yet but with Boyles going NRNB for the race, Irish Saint at 20/1 is a bet to nothing e/w for the Triumph Hurdle. The betting on this race looks very lopsided. Irish Saint was only a couple of lengths behind Rolling Star at Cheltenham and then won the Adonis at Kempton, yet Rolling Star is a quarter the price of Irish Saint. Nicholls hinted that they might keep him for Aintree but it's money back if Irish Saint doesn't turn up at Cheltenham.

Can't see Irish Saint going for the Triumph at all.

tipster

no hes not going they rate far west a mile better than him

Gautama

aidankkk wrote: »

Fruity O’Rooney looks ready to run a great race again in the JLT on the first day. He was very good last year to be second and after a series of decent runs this year probably on less than suitable ground he is in here again with 1lb less than last year. The Stable has hit form and I think he should be a pretty strong favourite here. There is no chance of him going off at 14/1 on the day so ill happily take the 14/1 available NRNB in a few places

1 Point win 14/1 NRNB 365/Paddy Power and others

I'd him backed each way last year at 20/1. I still shake my head when I think about it. Made all, nabbed on the line. Not sure if I'll back him this year.
I backed him again in Cheltenham in October, can in 20th!
Not sure how to proceed.

ste2010

Gautama wrote: »

I'd him backed each way last year at 20/1. I still shake my head when I think about it. Made all, nabbed on the line. Not sure if I'll back him this year.
I backed him again in Cheltenham in October, can in 20th!
Not sure how to proceed.

Would be no surprise if there were plans behind that run. Did you read if he had any problems

Harry Angstrom

tipster wrote: »

no hes not going they rate far west a mile better than him

Funny that. Ruby rated Sam Winner a better horse than Zarkandar before he finished behind him in the 2011 Triumph Hurdle. There's every chance that Irish Saint will skip the Triumph for Aintree instead but at 20/1 with the guarantee of NRNB, he's worth an e/w bet in my opinion. If he doesn't turn up at Cheltenham, no harm done.

ste2010

Where do you think Pentific will go?

tipster

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

Funny that. Ruby rated Sam Winner a better horse than Zarkandar before he finished behind him in the 2011 Triumph Hurdle. There's every chance that Irish Saint will skip the Triumph for Aintree instead but at 20/1 with the guarantee of NRNB, he's worth an e/w bet in my opinion. If he doesn't turn up at Cheltenham, no harm done.

exactly with the nrnb its a no lose.hes a tough horse nothing flashy youd think cheltenham would suit.they rated him their 4th best behind far west whos done the biz lac fontana whos been dissapointing and brinestone who ran poorly on his only run.at least irish saint has done the biz like far west

ste2010

I looked at the JLT for about 3hours last night..narrowed my selections from 4 to 2

Our mick, fruity o Rooney, same difference and our father

Our father
Same difference

Through all my pain looks like same difference is going for the 4m why is beyond me..he has a live chance here at the weight. He's not entered in the national and I think kempton didn't suit him last time out.

Our father has vanished off everyone's radar with the "he only runs well fresh" ideology. The same horse put a football pitch between himself and Sire collognes at Cheltenham , a horse he readily beat a good horse sea of thunder on more than one occasion. He has been beaten twice since.
Highland lodge put approx 20ls between our father with the 3rd horse that day approx 30ls back. I wouldn't read too much into that race given it was his first run on heavy.
NTO our father ran up against the big boys (unioniste, hadrians approach) but was OBVIOUSLY out for a spin...it's criminal how obvious it was.
My theory on this is...if he runs well fresh then why ruin his chances at the festival by sending him out for a spin a couple of weeks before it...
He's currently 25-1 for the JLT and I have heard nothing about his prep or isn't even mentioned in pipes stable review. Anyone know anything I'm missing here?

UrbanSea

I don't think he'll even go to be honest ste

longshotvalue

French Opera looks the best of the Nicky Henderson Charges that he is sending out to win his father’s race. He is down to a very decent mark, off which he has been second in this race before. He is probably the class horse of the field and has been waiting for decent ground after a somewhat disappointing season so far with only 2 runs. I’m hoping he has been prepared for this race given his decent mark and 20/1 NRNB could look good value on the day.

1 Point win 20/1 NRNB Various Grand Annual

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

Spirit River

This horse won the Coral Cup of a mark of 141 in 2010 as a 5yo. He had a poor experience as a chaser, and came back last year in the same race, and travelled exceptionally well and was certain to place until falling at the last of a mark of 145. After a poor couple of runs this year on unsuitable bad ground he is in a few races at the festival including the Coral Cup of a mark of 139. There is no question that he will be primed for the festival and proved last year that poor form won’t have any bearing.


He is 33/1 for the Coral/Pertempts/Martin Pipe. With Non Runner no bet at paddy power, he can be backed in each race without risk. He’ll probably run in the Coral but I wouldn’t mind him going for the weaker Martin Pipe race.

2 Points EW 33/1 Paddy Power NRNB, each of those 3 races.

NR on all 3 races so:( Money Back unfortunatly..

Harry Angstrom

Does anyone know if Rule 4 would be applied to races where bookies have guaranteed NRNB and a leading fancy is taken out of it?

El Ninotorres

ste2010 wrote: »

I looked at the JLT for about 3hours last night..narrowed my selections from 4 to 2

Our mick, fruity o Rooney, same difference and our father

Our father
Same difference

Through all my pain looks like same difference is going for the 4m why is beyond me..he has a live chance here at the weight. He's not entered in the national and I think kempton didn't suit him last time out.

Our father has vanished off everyone's radar with the "he only runs well fresh" ideology. The same horse put a football pitch between himself and Sire collognes at Cheltenham , a horse he readily beat a good horse sea of thunder on more than one occasion. He has been beaten twice since.
Highland lodge put approx 20ls between our father with the 3rd horse that day approx 30ls back. I wouldn't read too much into that race given it was his first run on heavy.
NTO our father ran up against the big boys (unioniste, hadrians approach) but was OBVIOUSLY out for a spin...it's criminal how obvious it was.
My theory on this is...if he runs well fresh then why ruin his chances at the festival by sending him out for a spin a couple of weeks before it...
He's currently 25-1 for the JLT and I have heard nothing about his prep or isn't even mentioned in pipes stable review. Anyone know anything I'm missing here?

Have backed Loch Ba in a lucky 15 for JLT @ 12/1

Juwwi

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

Does anyone know if Rule 4 would be applied to races where bookies have guaranteed NRNB and a leading fancy is taken out of it?

Im 99 % sure there is no rule 4.

lorenzo87

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

Does anyone know if Rule 4 would be applied to races where bookies have guaranteed NRNB and a leading fancy is taken out of it?

That would defeat the purpose of antepost betting.

Harry Angstrom

lorenzo87 wrote: »

That would defeat the purpose of antepost betting.

I said NRNB.

lorenzo87

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

I said NRNB.

It is still an antepost bet. No Rule 4 applies.

longshotvalue

Cross Country Chase

I’ve just been looking at the form for this race as I’ve stuck the pin here quite a few times in the past and now that the ground is going to be Soft I’m not sure it’s going to suit Uncle Junior or Balthazar’s Gift. Shalimar Fromentro ran asuperb race in the La Touche last time out which was nearly a year ago, over 4miles and on Heavy Ground. He jumped and travelled well throughout to just get tired in the last 2 furlongs to finish 5th. But he was carrying 11:12 there and has a ridiculous turnaround in the weights with Uncle Junior and some of his other opponent’s and is carrying only 9:9 if he gets into the race. The Shorter trip and better ground will surly suit him. He was a classy novice with some very good form and could well be thrown in here. 20/1 NRNB looks huge taking all this into account.

1 Point EW 20/1 NRNB Various

sting60

In the JLT Paul Gilligans Jadanli 33/1 is overpriced.He will love the going and has won over further which is important if the going is as soft as they are saying.

Motivator

I cant believe nobody has mentioned Midnight Chase for the JLT. I think 16/1 is a great price about a horse many people were raving about for the gold cup last year. 4th on heavy ground in Cheltenham in January & has won 5 (I think) times at Cheltenham in his career. He's a big price & as a front runner who likes the track, he goes on the ground & i think he will be very hard to pass coming up the hill on soft ground.

BQQ

Motivator wrote: »

I cant believe nobody has mentioned Midnight Chase for the JLT. I think 16/1 is a great price about a horse many people were raving about for the gold cup last year. 4th on heavy ground in Cheltenham in January & has won 5 (I think) times at Cheltenham in his career. He's a big price & as a front runner who likes the track, he goes on the ground & i think he will be very hard to pass coming up the hill on soft ground.

He's got a lot of weight.

Motivator

BQQ wrote: »

He's got a lot of weight.

11-11 is a fair weight alright, but in my opinion you can't beat experience around Cheltenham especially over the distance & although Our Mick probably does justify favouritism. I'm a big Midnight Chase fan & his record around Cheltenham is very impressive.

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

Cross Country Chase

I’ve just been looking at the form for this race as I’ve stuck the pin here quite a few times in the past and now that the ground is going to be Soft I’m not sure it’s going to suit Uncle Junior or Balthazar’s Gift. Shalimar Fromentro ran asuperb race in the La Touche last time out which was nearly a year ago, over 4miles and on Heavy Ground. He jumped and travelled well throughout to just get tired in the last 2 furlongs to finish 5th. But he was carrying 11:12 there and has a ridiculous turnaround in the weights with Uncle Junior and some of his other opponent’s and is carrying only 9:9 if he gets into the race. The Shorter trip and better ground will surly suit him. He was a classy novice with some very good form and could well be thrown in here. 20/1 NRNB looks huge taking all this into account.

1 Point EW 20/1 NRNB Various

Didnt Make it into the Field :mad:.. Still NRNB...

longshotvalue

5:15 Rewards4Racing Novices Handicap Chase


Johns Spirit might have disappointed here last time out but, the form of his second at Sandown behind Katenko getting only 3lbs reads exceptionally well in the context of this Novice Handicap Race. He is still on that mark and if he can reproduce that form here he is vastly overpriced at 20/1.


1 Point EW 20/1 Stan James / Skybet & Betfair

longshotvalue

2:40 JLT Specialty Handicap Chase

Tullamore Dew has been running well this year, but has dropped to an enticing mark here, especially considering his last run here in a very good Murphy Group Race here over a shorter trip. He stayed up the hill is excellent fashion and a repeat of that performance which came on heavy ground would give him a great chance of getting into the first 5 here. 33/1 with 5 places seems great value.

1 Point EW 33/1 5 Places Generally

longshotvalue

4:00 Glenfarclas Handicap Chase (Cross Country)

I’m suspecting there could be a change here from the specialists in this race. Both Bostons Angel and Any Currency have easily the best Chase form of any of these and look to be well treated here. Bostons Angel will be ready to run today and has very good course and festival form in the past, including some decent form in similar races this year. Any Currency just looks exceptionally well treated on his top notch recent chase form, including a good 3rd in the Bet365 Cup last year. I’m going with a win bet on both.

1 Point win Bostons Angel 11 Betfair
1 Point win Any Currency 14/1 generally

BQQ

Sirene D'Ainay 16:40

I think the french horse in Quevega's race could be some longshot value.
I backed her at 50/1 yesterday. 40/1 with PP now.

If we remove Quevega from the equation, novices have a good record in the race.
Whiteoak won as a novice and a number of others have placed behind Quevega.
She's by Dom Alco, whose progeny do very well at cheltenham. (24% strikerate over 2m4f - 2m6f at the festival )
Also she won quite a valuable race over the distance last time out. (€38,000 for the winner. Compare with Une Artiste's last race where she won £11,000)
Lastly, bar the fav, there's little enough to beat quite frankly.

longshotvalue

Coral Cup 4:00


Orsippus has a great record of running well in these big field handicaps and has in fact finished 3rd in this race 2 years ago off 2 lbs higher. He had a break lately and came back with a decent run behind Pedlers Cross. He is 50/1 with Coral which looks great value given his consistancy and the 5 places offered. He would probably be shorter if the ground was a bit better but its not a total bog.


1 Point EW 50/1 Coral 5 places

longshotvalue

4:40 Fred Winter

Ruacana looks to have been underestimated here. He has the best form in the race with his very decent looking 3rd behind Our Conor in Leopardstown and is also a Grade 1 winner in the UK. His mark for this race doesn’t appear to be too bad and he is a very decent price as he appears to be the stable second string here. I doubt there is much between him and Bordini here and the additional 3lbs that he will get from his claimer jockey won’t go astray. Im surprised he is 20/1 and that’s easily worth an EW Bet


1 Point EW 20/1 Various

BQQ

BQQ wrote: »

Sirene D'Ainay 16:40

I think the french horse in Quevega's race could be some longshot value.
I backed her at 50/1 yesterday. 40/1 with PP now.

If we remove Quevega from the equation, novices have a good record in the race.
Whiteoak won as a novice and a number of others have placed behind Quevega.
She's by Dom Alco, whose progeny do very well at cheltenham. (24% strikerate over 2m4f - 2m6f at the festival )
Also she won quite a valuable race over the distance last time out. (€38,000 for the winner. Compare with Une Artiste's last race where she won £11,000)
Lastly, bar the fav, there's little enough to beat quite frankly.

Oooh, so close!
Decent each way payout all the same. Fair play to Quevega. Some horse.

On to Wednesday. I think Big Easy could run a big race in the coral cup @50/1.

Had some decent form last year. Won a couple of races that a few subsequent winners came out of.
He reappeared this season over course and distance finishing 5th in a race won by Bondage with Medinas in 2nd. Both reoppose today, but big easy is 20lbs better off with Bondage for 18 lengths and 25lbs better off with Medinas.
His only subsequent run was on terrible ground and Phillip Hobbs has said you can forget that run.
People might think it's the stable second string with Richard Johnson on Saddlers risk, but that has no chance with a rating of 150 and talented young claimer Michael Nolan takes another 5lbs off.
He's won his last two rides and was given high praise by the trainer of the horse he won on at Taunton on Monday. ("future champion").

longshotvalue

Coral Cup



I’m going with 2 more big prices in the Coral Cup. Crack Away Jack looks to be getting back into form and looks to have been given a half decent chance by the handicapper despite have near top weight. He could well improce considerable on the decent ground today and may well be very difficult to knock out of the places at a decent looking 33/1. The other I’m going for is Big Easy at a very big looking 50/1. He has some decent course form hasn’t had a hard season. Last time out here he looked to be travelling well until a poor jump 3 out. He was poor last time on heavy ground and that is the reason for his big price. He looks to have a bit of potential and a nice weight.

½ Point EW Crack Away Jack Various 33/1 5 places

½ Point EW Big Easy 50/1 EW Coral 5 places

Johnny_Fontane

BQQ wrote: »

Sirene D'Ainay 16:40

I think the french horse in Quevega's race could be some longshot value.
I backed her at 50/1 yesterday. 40/1 with PP now.

If we remove Quevega from the equation, novices have a good record in the race.
Whiteoak won as a novice and a number of others have placed behind Quevega.
She's by Dom Alco, whose progeny do very well at cheltenham. (24% strikerate over 2m4f - 2m6f at the festival )
Also she won quite a valuable race over the distance last time out. (€38,000 for the winner. Compare with Une Artiste's last race where she won £11,000)
Lastly, bar the fav, there's little enough to beat quite frankly.

cheers for that one bqq, I had her w/o quevega at 23/1 on betfair....didnt care if quevega won (an interesting feeling)......

superfurry1

HellorBoston 50-1 for the bumper has a chance mccain is due a change of luck, and maguire seems to thrive in the bumpers this year.

longshotvalue

4:40 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup

Frisco Depot sticks out here as a possible improver in this race. The better ground should help him and he looks to be on a decent mark. He looks from his last race or two if there is a big race in him. 16/1 with 5 places looks a bit of value.
Galaxy Rock has some very good course form and is still on a decent mark. He is very likely to have this race in mind, and will be helped by the better ground here. He has the assistance of a very decent amateur and that means a lot in this race. 14/1 looks Value.


1 Point EW Frisco Depot 16/1 5 places Frisco Depot
1 Point win 14/1 Galaxy Rock

hucklebuck

This could be an inspired selection or a pile of ****e, well worth an interest anyway.

I put Mister Hyde in my tracker after his race in Kempton on 02/02/13, he ran a nice race that day from the front. He had the other horses in the race at it as they were swinging in and when he needed some persuasion it appeared to be extremely gentle.

Given that he is trained by Jonjo who is a master at laying a horse out for a big handicap and Dougie Costello has been booked for the ride as AP and Richie are riding JPs two horses.He is not the best jumper and his record at Cheltenham is 4 runs and no wins or places and his best form seems to be on the softer side of good so conditions are not ideal.As stated if my suspicions are correct and Mister Hyde has been layed out for this shouldering 10-4 with Dougie in the plate he could make his price of 95 on Betfair look very generous indeed

longshotvalue

4:00 Byrne Group Plate

I’ve been expecting Poquelinto get back to form this year when the ground improves and I'm hopeful that today is the day. He has been poor enough his last 2 runs, but he is down to a great mark considering he won a similar C&D race here of 15lbs higher 2 years ago. He also had a reasonable run first time out this year on decent ground at Ascot. 25/1 looks a great price and he is well capable of giving weight to a lot of these on this ground.
1 Point EW 25/1 Generally

longshotvalue

5:15 Glenfarclas Handicap Chase (Cross Country)

I've selected 2 on monday for this and I havnt changed my mind.

I’m suspecting there could be a change here from the specialists in this race. Both Bostons Angel and Any Currency have easily the best Chase form of any of these and look to be well treated here. Bostons Angel will be ready to run today and has very good course and festival form in the past, including some decent form in similar races this year. Any Currency just looks exceptionally well treated on his top notch recent chase form, including a good 3rd in the Bet365 Cup last year. I’m going with a win bet on both.

1 Point win Bostons Angel 11 Betfair
1 Point win Any Currency 14/1 generally

longshotvalue

2:05 Pertemps Final

Captain Sunshine looks to have a nice profile for this race. He is just out of novice company where he won at Cheltenham, has run a very good race last time out and should improve for the decent ground here today. He is 20/1 with 5 places and that looks a bit of value.
1 Point EW 20/1 Generally

longshotvalue

Ryanair Chase

Ghizaois a pure gut feeling selection for me. He will be much better on the good ground today and has looked a few times this year as if he might get back to form with better conditions. He stayed on nicely in his last few runs behind Captain Chris and Cur Card and if he can improve around here today he might outrun his 33/1 price.
1 Point EW 33/1 EW Betvictor