Longshotvalue @ Cheltenham

longshotvalue

Spirit River

This horse won the Coral Cup of a mark of 141 in 2010 as a 5yo. He had a poor experience as a chaser, and came back last year in the same race, and travelled exceptionally well and was certain to place until falling at the last of a mark of 145. After a poor couple of runs this year on unsuitable bad ground he is in a few races at the festival including the Coral Cup of a mark of 139. There is no question that he will be primed for the festival and proved last year that poor form won’t have any bearing.


He is 33/1 for the Coral/Pertempts/Martin Pipe. With Non Runner no bet at paddy power, he can be backed in each race without risk. He’ll probably run in the Coral but I wouldn’t mind him going for the weaker Martin Pipe race.

2 Points EW 33/1 Paddy Power NRNB, each of those 3 races.

Hulk Hands

I doubt he would've placed last year, was all out jumping the last. Was more likely to finish 6th

longshotvalue

Hulk Hands wrote: »

I doubt he would've placed last year, was all out jumping the last. Was more likely to finish 6th

Hard to say, the way the horses finished it wouldnt have taken much to be 4th, but the 6lbs less should put him in with a great chance at that price.

UrbanSea

Think Micheal Flips represents a bit of value in the Byrne Plate. Rated 137 now, he hasn't been seen at his best this year due to the ground having started off the season with a rating of 146. Didn't run all that badly a few runs ago when he did get good to soft ground at Ascot off 143, beaten six length by Ulck du Lin who won again off ten pounds higher.

He's down to his last winning mark when he beat The Cockney Mackem (pair clear) who went on to finish second in the Byrne plate last year off a six pound higher mark. Micheal Flip's two length second behind For Non Stop in the Betfair Novices looks like good form too.

33/1 is a decent price

longshotvalue

Fruity O’Rooney looks ready to run a great race again in the JLT on the first day. He was very good last year to be second and after a series of decent runs this year probably on less than suitable ground he is in here again with 1lb less than last year. The Stable has hit form and I think he should be a pretty strong favourite here. There is no chance of him going off at 14/1 on the day so ill happily take the 14/1 available NRNB in a few places

1 Point win 14/1 NRNB 365/Paddy Power and others

UrbanSea

Backed Fruity O'Rooney on Friday at 20/1 with Ladbrokes

lorenzo87

I do articles and tips for a cheltenham site www.thecheltenhamfestival.ie , all my fancies are on the site.

Some of my outside fancies are:

Lord Windermere e/w for the RSA @ 20/1
Medinas e/w for the Coral Cup @ 20/1
South South West e/w for the Fred Winter @ 33/1
Argocat e/w for the Jewson @ 20/1
Brackloon High e/w for the Kim Muir @ 33/1
Cape Tribulation e/w for the Gold Cup @ 25/1
Fruity O'Rooney for the JLT e/w @ 20/1

longshotvalue

RichieLawlessness wrote: »

Backed Fruity O'Rooney on Friday at 20/1 with Ladbrokes

Jelous.. he looks to have a great chance

UrbanSea

Hopefully aidan. Obvious but Our Mick looked to have improved last time and would have given Katenko a good run last time if he hadn't fallen, wouldn't be a backer at those odds though in a wide open race

dahat

Still 16/1 in Boylesports shops though 14/1 online,strange...

Harry Angstrom

He's not a certain runner yet but with Boyles going NRNB for the race, Irish Saint at 20/1 is a bet to nothing e/w for the Triumph Hurdle. The betting on this race looks very lopsided. Irish Saint was only a couple of lengths behind Rolling Star at Cheltenham and then won the Adonis at Kempton, yet Rolling Star is a quarter the price of Irish Saint. Nicholls hinted that they might keep him for Aintree but it's money back if Irish Saint doesn't turn up at Cheltenham.

Nulty

RichieLawlessness wrote: »

Backed Fruity O'Rooney on Friday at 20/1 with Ladbrokes

I've had him since January @ 20/1. Won't win me any more money though.

Johner

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

He's not a certain runner yet but with Boyles going NRNB for the race, Irish Saint at 20/1 is a bet to nothing e/w for the Triumph Hurdle. The betting on this race looks very lopsided. Irish Saint was only a couple of lengths behind Rolling Star at Cheltenham and then won the Adonis at Kempton, yet Rolling Star is a quarter the price of Irish Saint. Nicholls hinted that they might keep him for Aintree but it's money back if Irish Saint doesn't turn up at Cheltenham.

Can't see Irish Saint going for the Triumph at all.

tipster

no hes not going they rate far west a mile better than him

Gautama

aidankkk wrote: »

Fruity O’Rooney looks ready to run a great race again in the JLT on the first day. He was very good last year to be second and after a series of decent runs this year probably on less than suitable ground he is in here again with 1lb less than last year. The Stable has hit form and I think he should be a pretty strong favourite here. There is no chance of him going off at 14/1 on the day so ill happily take the 14/1 available NRNB in a few places

1 Point win 14/1 NRNB 365/Paddy Power and others

I'd him backed each way last year at 20/1. I still shake my head when I think about it. Made all, nabbed on the line. Not sure if I'll back him this year.
I backed him again in Cheltenham in October, can in 20th!
Not sure how to proceed.

ste2010

Gautama wrote: »

I'd him backed each way last year at 20/1. I still shake my head when I think about it. Made all, nabbed on the line. Not sure if I'll back him this year.
I backed him again in Cheltenham in October, can in 20th!
Not sure how to proceed.

Would be no surprise if there were plans behind that run. Did you read if he had any problems

Harry Angstrom

tipster wrote: »

no hes not going they rate far west a mile better than him

Funny that. Ruby rated Sam Winner a better horse than Zarkandar before he finished behind him in the 2011 Triumph Hurdle. There's every chance that Irish Saint will skip the Triumph for Aintree instead but at 20/1 with the guarantee of NRNB, he's worth an e/w bet in my opinion. If he doesn't turn up at Cheltenham, no harm done.

ste2010

Where do you think Pentific will go?

tipster

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

Funny that. Ruby rated Sam Winner a better horse than Zarkandar before he finished behind him in the 2011 Triumph Hurdle. There's every chance that Irish Saint will skip the Triumph for Aintree instead but at 20/1 with the guarantee of NRNB, he's worth an e/w bet in my opinion. If he doesn't turn up at Cheltenham, no harm done.

exactly with the nrnb its a no lose.hes a tough horse nothing flashy youd think cheltenham would suit.they rated him their 4th best behind far west whos done the biz lac fontana whos been dissapointing and brinestone who ran poorly on his only run.at least irish saint has done the biz like far west

ste2010

I looked at the JLT for about 3hours last night..narrowed my selections from 4 to 2

Our mick, fruity o Rooney, same difference and our father

Our father
Same difference

Through all my pain looks like same difference is going for the 4m why is beyond me..he has a live chance here at the weight. He's not entered in the national and I think kempton didn't suit him last time out.

Our father has vanished off everyone's radar with the "he only runs well fresh" ideology. The same horse put a football pitch between himself and Sire collognes at Cheltenham , a horse he readily beat a good horse sea of thunder on more than one occasion. He has been beaten twice since.
Highland lodge put approx 20ls between our father with the 3rd horse that day approx 30ls back. I wouldn't read too much into that race given it was his first run on heavy.
NTO our father ran up against the big boys (unioniste, hadrians approach) but was OBVIOUSLY out for a spin...it's criminal how obvious it was.
My theory on this is...if he runs well fresh then why ruin his chances at the festival by sending him out for a spin a couple of weeks before it...
He's currently 25-1 for the JLT and I have heard nothing about his prep or isn't even mentioned in pipes stable review. Anyone know anything I'm missing here?

UrbanSea

I don't think he'll even go to be honest ste

longshotvalue

French Opera looks the best of the Nicky Henderson Charges that he is sending out to win his father’s race. He is down to a very decent mark, off which he has been second in this race before. He is probably the class horse of the field and has been waiting for decent ground after a somewhat disappointing season so far with only 2 runs. I’m hoping he has been prepared for this race given his decent mark and 20/1 NRNB could look good value on the day.

1 Point win 20/1 NRNB Various Grand Annual

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

Spirit River

This horse won the Coral Cup of a mark of 141 in 2010 as a 5yo. He had a poor experience as a chaser, and came back last year in the same race, and travelled exceptionally well and was certain to place until falling at the last of a mark of 145. After a poor couple of runs this year on unsuitable bad ground he is in a few races at the festival including the Coral Cup of a mark of 139. There is no question that he will be primed for the festival and proved last year that poor form won’t have any bearing.


He is 33/1 for the Coral/Pertempts/Martin Pipe. With Non Runner no bet at paddy power, he can be backed in each race without risk. He’ll probably run in the Coral but I wouldn’t mind him going for the weaker Martin Pipe race.

2 Points EW 33/1 Paddy Power NRNB, each of those 3 races.

NR on all 3 races so:( Money Back unfortunatly..

Harry Angstrom

Does anyone know if Rule 4 would be applied to races where bookies have guaranteed NRNB and a leading fancy is taken out of it?

El Ninotorres

ste2010 wrote: »

I looked at the JLT for about 3hours last night..narrowed my selections from 4 to 2

Our mick, fruity o Rooney, same difference and our father

Our father
Same difference

Through all my pain looks like same difference is going for the 4m why is beyond me..he has a live chance here at the weight. He's not entered in the national and I think kempton didn't suit him last time out.

Our father has vanished off everyone's radar with the "he only runs well fresh" ideology. The same horse put a football pitch between himself and Sire collognes at Cheltenham , a horse he readily beat a good horse sea of thunder on more than one occasion. He has been beaten twice since.
Highland lodge put approx 20ls between our father with the 3rd horse that day approx 30ls back. I wouldn't read too much into that race given it was his first run on heavy.
NTO our father ran up against the big boys (unioniste, hadrians approach) but was OBVIOUSLY out for a spin...it's criminal how obvious it was.
My theory on this is...if he runs well fresh then why ruin his chances at the festival by sending him out for a spin a couple of weeks before it...
He's currently 25-1 for the JLT and I have heard nothing about his prep or isn't even mentioned in pipes stable review. Anyone know anything I'm missing here?

Have backed Loch Ba in a lucky 15 for JLT @ 12/1

Juwwi

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

Does anyone know if Rule 4 would be applied to races where bookies have guaranteed NRNB and a leading fancy is taken out of it?

Im 99 % sure there is no rule 4.

lorenzo87

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

Does anyone know if Rule 4 would be applied to races where bookies have guaranteed NRNB and a leading fancy is taken out of it?

That would defeat the purpose of antepost betting.

Harry Angstrom

lorenzo87 wrote: »

That would defeat the purpose of antepost betting.

I said NRNB.

lorenzo87

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

I said NRNB.

It is still an antepost bet. No Rule 4 applies.

longshotvalue

Cross Country Chase

I’ve just been looking at the form for this race as I’ve stuck the pin here quite a few times in the past and now that the ground is going to be Soft I’m not sure it’s going to suit Uncle Junior or Balthazar’s Gift. Shalimar Fromentro ran asuperb race in the La Touche last time out which was nearly a year ago, over 4miles and on Heavy Ground. He jumped and travelled well throughout to just get tired in the last 2 furlongs to finish 5th. But he was carrying 11:12 there and has a ridiculous turnaround in the weights with Uncle Junior and some of his other opponent’s and is carrying only 9:9 if he gets into the race. The Shorter trip and better ground will surly suit him. He was a classy novice with some very good form and could well be thrown in here. 20/1 NRNB looks huge taking all this into account.

1 Point EW 20/1 NRNB Various

sting60

In the JLT Paul Gilligans Jadanli 33/1 is overpriced.He will love the going and has won over further which is important if the going is as soft as they are saying.