RSA Chase

TheMilkyPirate

Might as well get a few more threads going for the other big races seen as were less than two weeks away from the greatest show on turf.

The RSA is a gruelling novice chase over 3 miles which can certainly leave a mark on a novice chaser such as we have seen in recent years with the likes of Cooldine Bostons angel and Weapons amnesty.

It also suits a strong stayer and the one I like this year is Boston bob, The more I look at the race the more I fancy him. To some people his two runs over fences this year may leave a lot to be desired but they were both over a trip too short and I jus think with the combination of better ground and a longer trip in march will see him in a much better light. Great bet at 5/1.

tipster

i agree im on boston bob at 10s 8s and 7s hoping to recoup what i lost on him last year.wasnt fully wound up for his 2 runs and will love the better ground.dynaste for me wont get home another grands cru to me anyway

MoscowFlyer

After last year I will not touch Boston Bob!!!

longshotvalue

MoscowFlyer wrote: »

After last year I will not touch Boston Bob!!!

Im the opposite after last year i tough to myself RSA.. Ive a silly amount of confidence in him, even more after his last win in ireland..

ste2010

MoscowFlyer wrote: »

After last year I will not touch Boston Bob!!!

There is no doubt in my mind that it was the jockey you should be blaming for his loss..it was ridiculous how at back ruby left him...way too much to do. Watch the race again..he left it too late

ste2010

Mightily impressed by Boston bob last time out over the shorter distance. Seen all I needed to see. The big question is will back in focus get the call up should it be soft

prettyboy81

Hadrians Approach for me, took some 12/1 ew with PaddyPower today NRNB.

dk6dk6

Wish that David Pipe ***** would just name Dynastes target and get it over with. The grounds not going to dramatically change between now and then so at least name which way he is leaning. Personally i think he's leaning towards the Jewson and alot of ante post punters will be burnt.

UrbanSea

I would love if he went to the Jewson. Have had my eye on Houblon des Obeaux for this for quite a while. 33/1 with Ladbrokes is a very good price I think. Hoping for a good run for my money

Mgoraf

Surely not a good sign that Ruby is going to be riding Unioniste instead of Boston Bob in this?

battser

Mgoraf wrote: »

Surely not a good sign that Ruby is going to be riding Unioniste instead of Boston Bob in this?

Its a great sign for me tbh. Townend got everything out of him over a shorter trip the last day in Leopardstown it was a great ride. As said above ruby was brutal last year on him. The step up and another good ride should see him home IMO

Mgoraf

Yeah I agree that Ruby was crap on him last year but presumably he had the choice between the two though?

RichieLawlor

battser wrote: »

Its a great sign for me tbh. Townend got everything out of him over a shorter trip the last day in Leopardstown it was a great ride. As said above ruby was brutal last year on him. The step up and another good ride should see him home IMO

Boston Bob jumped like a mule the last day. Ruby is fantastic at getting a horse into a rhythm. Townend is a negative for this horse in my opinion

battser

Mgoraf wrote: »

Yeah I agree that Ruby was crap on him last year but presumably he had the choice between the two though?

True he most likely did but that doesn't mean its a sure negative. Ruby has made bad picks before losing out to others he could have been on so its not always the case to be fair but we will see.

dk6dk6

RichieLawlessness wrote: »

I would love if he went to the Jewson. Have had my eye on Houblon des Obeaux for this for quite a while. 33/1 with Ladbrokes is a very good price I think. Hoping for a good run for my money

I'd rather see Dynaste in the RSA myself, personally i think he'd win both races but as i have Aupcharlie ante post for the Jewson it makes a big difference were Dynaste goes. This undecided nonsense does my head in.

kiers47

Boston Bob would not have beat brindisi breeze last year. Even if people say he got a bad ride last year brindisi galloped all the way to the line. I would say Campbell Gilles won the race more than ruby lost it. An awful pity about both horse and jockey.

Also anyone who would rather Townend over ruby in Cheltenham needs a serious wake up call and it's nothin only pocket talk. The guy is an absolute legend around the track. If pipe runs dynaste in the Jewson I will have lost all faith in humanity. The horse is top class he will win by 5+L

d-gal

Dynasty enhanced in Bruce betting to 3/1, max €500 bet

ste2010

kiers47 wrote: »

Boston Bob would not have beat brindisi breeze last year. Even if people say he got a bad ride last year brindisi galloped all the way to the line. I would say Campbell Gilles won the race more than ruby lost it. An awful pity about both horse and jockey.

Also anyone who would rather Townend over ruby in Cheltenham needs a serious wake up call and it's nothin only pocket talk. The guy is an absolute legend around the track. If pipe runs dynaste in the Jewson I will have lost all faith in humanity. The horse is top class he will win by 5+L

Boston bob made ridiculous ground up in that race. Do you think Ruby positioned perfectly to run his best race?

dk6dk6

d-gal wrote: »

Dynasty enhanced in Bruce betting to 3/1, max €500 bet

For which race, or both?

mdwexford

Dynaste will definitely run in this.

It's a huge negative if Ruby has chosen not to ride Boston Bob.

dk6dk6

mdwexford wrote: »

Dynaste will definitely run in this.

It's a huge negative if Ruby has chosen not to ride Boston Bob.

How do you know this because listening to both trainer and jockey the Jewson seems be the preferred option now?

mdwexford

dk6dk6 wrote: »

How do you know this because listening to both trainer and jockey the Jewson seems be the preferred option now?

He's favourite for the biggest novice chase of the season why would they drop him to a less prestigious grade 2.

I'll be very surprised if he doesn't run in the RSA.

dk6dk6

mdwexford wrote: »

He's favourite for the biggest novice chase of the season why would they drop him to a less prestigious grade 2.

I'll be very surprised if he doesn't run in the RSA.

Willie Mullins could have the favourite for the World Hurdle but decides to run in a mickey mouse race instead, happens.

jimjamcos

kiers47 wrote: »

Boston Bob would not have beat brindisi breeze last year. Even if people say he got a bad ride last year brindisi galloped all the way to the line. I would say Campbell Gilles won the race more than ruby lost it. An awful pity about both horse and jockey.

Also anyone who would rather Townend over ruby in Cheltenham needs a serious wake up call and it's nothin only pocket talk. The guy is an absolute legend around the track. If pipe runs dynaste in the Jewson I will have lost all faith in humanity. The horse is top class he will win by 5+L

Spot on. Boston Bob simply got outpaced at a crucial stage in last years race (like Hurricane Fly, Zarkander did in CH) and stayed on well up the hill like we knew he would. Same again LTO over shorter trip - he was totally done for toe before staying on brilliantly. Brindisi Breeze had more toe than BB and stayed just as well too, was by far the best horse in last years race! I'd be worried that BB will be staying on too late if I was a backer this year too!

RichieLawlor

dk6dk6 wrote: »

Willie Mullins could have the favourite for the World Hurdle but decides to run in a mickey mouse race instead, happens.

David Pipe is the only trainer I've heard who mentions 'prize money' every time he opens his mouth. He will run Dynaste in the RSA

dk6dk6

RichieLawlor wrote: »

David Pipe is the only trainer I've heard who mentions 'prize money' every time he opens his mouth. He will run Dynaste in the RSA

And thats why he might take the softer option of the Jewson, Scudamore did say the Jewson looks soft so they've obviously discussed it.

d-gal

dk6dk6 wrote: »

For which race, or both?

For the RSA, they're nrnb

mdwexford

dk6dk6 wrote: »

Willie Mullins could have the favourite for the World Hurdle but decides to run in a mickey mouse race instead, happens.

Thats because they are going for the 4 in a row and she might be favourite (wouldnt be imo OW still would)

Dynaste has been ante post fav for months, he wont be in the Jewson.

Kankan14

mdwexford wrote: »

Thats because they are going for the 4 in a row and she might be favourite (wouldnt be imo OW still would)

Dynaste has been ante post fav for months, he wont be in the Jewson.

Ruby is on record of saying it would be very rude to not turn up for grade two you've won 3 years in a row, so your right I'm sure Mullins/the owners would feel the same.

No hope Pipe sends Dynaste anywhere else bar this race. For the reasons already named

mdwexford

I meant five in a row btw which in turns means you meant 4 years in a row.

UrbanSea

Stat on some of the favs beaten in the RSA,makes some grim reading


PRICES Cooldine, Albertas Run and Denman shrugged off the favourites bogey. Nick Dundee, Royal Athlete, Mr. Mulligan, Harcon, Barton Bank, One Man, Keen Leader, Our Vic, Comply or Die, Punchestown and Time For Rupert Long Run, Grand Crus all 3/1 or under and beat.

BOGEY RACES. In '08 Albertas Run completed the Reynoldstown/RSA double, first since Killiney ’73. 19 have tried, 11 started favourite here, only 6 others achieved a place (Invictus didnt run here last year. In '11 Master of The Hall 6th, '10 Burton Port 2nd, '09 Carruthers finished 4th). Bobs Worth, Nahthen Lad '96, Envopak Token, The West Awake and Kildimo all beaten in the Reynoldstown went on to win at Cheltenham. Houblon Des Obeaux (I know its hard to believe). Since 1996 only 5 horses have ran in the RSA after being beaten in a Reynoldstown. Bobs Worth only winner. Rest tend to go to the 4 miler or Aintree.


Last 48 winners all had a run since 31 December

Kankan14

mdwexford wrote: »

I meant five in a row btw which in turns means you meant 4 years in a row.

No i meant 3 I just didn't mention the piece was from before last years festival. I'm just guessing same reasoning would apply.

fangee

RichieLawlessness wrote: »

Stat on some of the favs beaten in the RSA,makes some grim reading


PRICES Cooldine, Albertas Run and Denman shrugged off the favourites bogey. Nick Dundee, Royal Athlete, Mr. Mulligan, Harcon, Barton Bank, One Man, Keen Leader, Our Vic, Comply or Die, Punchestown and Time For Rupert Long Run, Grand Crus all 3/1 or under and beat.

BOGEY RACES. In '08 Albertas Run completed the Reynoldstown/RSA double, first since Killiney ’73. 19 have tried, 11 started favourite here, only 6 others achieved a place (Invictus didnt run here last year. In '11 Master of The Hall 6th, '10 Burton Port 2nd, '09 Carruthers finished 4th). Bobs Worth, Nahthen Lad '96, Envopak Token, The West Awake and Kildimo all beaten in the Reynoldstown went on to win at Cheltenham. Houblon Des Obeaux (I know its hard to believe). Since 1996 only 5 horses have ran in the RSA after being beaten in a Reynoldstown. Bobs Worth only winner. Rest tend to go to the 4 miler or Aintree.


Last 48 winners all had a run since 31 December

Am I reading this correctly ?

You are saying that you can only see HIM winning the RSA ?

It's not a dig or trick question. I'm just trying to understand the context of the sentence.

yaboya1

I think it means Bobs Worth was the only winner of the RSA that was beaten in the Reynoldstown since 1996.

dahat

Heading into town today. to back Unioniste,Fav's in this race has a brutal record.
Dynaste is the best horse in the race but stat's say he can't win and 8/1 about Unioniste is far too generous...

fangee

yaboya1 wrote: »

I think it means Bobs Worth was the only winner of the RSA that was beaten in the Reynoldstown since 1996.

I get it now. Thanks.

Brain freeze on my behalf. Bobs worth / Boston bob.

kiers47

So the only reason people are opposing dynaste is because favourites have a poor record in the race? Nothing got to do with the horse what so ever. Sounds like a super quick way to the poor house.

dahat

kiers47 wrote: »

So the only reason people are opposing dynaste is because favourites have a poor record in the race? Nothing got to do with the horse what so ever. Sounds like a super quick way to the poor house.

Not nessecarily,this race is a minefield for short priced fav's,as i stated earlier most will agree Dynaste is the best horse but it does not always work like so in the RSA,it is a slog for novices and at the odd's he looks vunerable to me

Slattsy

Dynaste doesnt know he's favourite.
If you want to back him, back him on his form.
If you dont want to back him, then dont back him on what the stats say.

Hulk Hands

I hate price stats. If a horse is a fav, does he suddenly have a better chance in the race if he gets overtaken as fav? Of course not. The only leverage they have is from a profit to level stakes view.

The interesting stat is the last 49 winners have run in the same calender year, which would go against Dynaste. I'm generally not a stats person so that won't put me off him, but it's interesting all the same

UrbanSea

I'm not a stats person either but that one does catch the eye. I wouldn't be opposing him purely because he's a short priced favourite but it is always an incentive when you see their record (from the post I copied above)

Cooldine, Albertas Run and Denman shrugged off the favourites bogey. Nick Dundee, Royal Athlete, Mr. Mulligan, Harcon, Barton Bank, One Man, Keen Leader, Our Vic, Comply or Die, Punchestown and Time For Rupert Long Run, Grand Crus all 3/1 or under and beat

Dyaste may well win but he doesn't fit the profile of what I see to be an RSA winner

Suarez20

Lay of the meeting imo, this will go to a grinder/battler dynaste does not posess them qualities he is too flashy to win this race and the fact he hasn't ran in calendar year is just another bit of backing i need to go against him. I've backed boston bob throughout the year but haven't been impressed with the reports I'm hearing about him. I still believe he will be the top Irish horse but whether he's good enough to win is another thing

yaboya1

The thing about stats in this race or any race are you have to consider why they exist. Then you can make a decision about whether they're relevant or not.

In this case:

Lack of run in the calendar year: I would say this one is relevant because a novice chaser that hasn't run in almost three months is going into the heat of battle in a Grade 1 race that the whole field has been trained for. The lack of a recent prep I would think is a negative.

Favourite: It's not a negative to be the favourite, but you must look at the reasons why the horse is favourite. A horse who has run recently and still holds favouritism is probably less likely to have horses improve past him in that short a timeframe. A horse whose favouritism is based on winter form may be vulnerable to improving horses (some of which he may have already beaten) and may have been peaking himself at that time rather than at the festival. The change in ground conditions could also be an issue if he's been impressive in soft/heavy ground.

You shouldn't place bets totally relying on past statistics but you shouldn't totally ignore them either.

Ray Mond

Race stats my bollox... This a totally different race just because ' stats' don't make dynast the likely winner doesn't mean jack ****.
Dynaste will piss this race and I'll be laughing my arse off with a fat wallet

UrbanSea

I like your confidence. Wouldn't share it but I like it.

SRFC

How many horses as good as dynaste have ran in the race without a prep in the calender year,my guess would be very few so the stat is probably rubbish same with the 9 yr old in the champion hurdle thread how many 9yr olds with hf's ability ran in it? my guess none so that stat goes out the window,

Slattsy

Ray Mond wrote: »

Race stats my bollox... This a totally different race just because ' stats' don't make dynast the likely winner doesn't mean jack ****.
Dynaste will piss this race and I'll be laughing my arse off with a fat wallet

What brand wallet?

Backstreet Moyes

Dynaste out to 9/4 in PP for the RSA and into 5/2 for the Jewson. Have Dynaste in two dockets ante post for the RSA will be sickened but looks like he is going for the Jewson.

Suarez20

i'd say thats just a reaction to the weather forecast, if it rains and softer/stickier ground he'll go jewson!

premierstone

kiers47 wrote: »

So the only reason people are opposing dynaste is because favourites have a poor record in the race? Nothing got to do with the horse what so ever. Sounds like a super quick way to the poor house.

Completely agree kiers, the reality is on known form he should be a much shorter price and the only thing holding it up is what happened to Grand Crus last year which is silly as the only thing they have in common is the trainer and the jockey.

dahat wrote: »

Not nessecarily,this race is a minefield for short priced fav's,as i stated earlier most will agree Dynaste is the best horse but it does not always work like so in the RSA,it is a slog for novices and at the odd's he looks vunerable to me

Vunerable to what do is the problem I have heard so many people nominating the horse as their lay of the meeting, but not one of them has any confiedence in an alternative.

SRFC

Anyone think Dynaste is going to run in this for sure? I have my doubts now just got that feeling.