Quevega For The World Hurdle??

byronbay2

I see that Quevega is being cut by several of the bookies and exchanges today for The World Hurdle (down to 5/1 with BetVictor:eek:) - does anyone have any info on the likelihood of this occurrence?

I would not have thought that she is likely to swerve The Mares Hurdle; winning that 5 times in a row would be quite an achievement. Also, I would give her very little chance in The Stayers - would love to lay her all day @ 5/1!!

Colonel Sanders

By any chance are the NRNB bookmakers cutting her?

Would make sense if that was the case. I'd love to see her run in it but don't think she will

byronbay2

Well, she's been cut on the 3 exchanges which are obviously not NRNB - someone certainly seems to have formed an opinion that she will run.

Johner

byronbay2 wrote: »

Also, I would give her very little chance in The Stayers - would love to lay her all day @ 5/1!!

Any other year Big Bucks would destroy her but this year it would be a good bet at 5/1. Can't see her going for it anyway.

rossom

I've lumped on at 6/1 with Betvictor NRNB. I still think she'll go to the Mares but if she lines up for the WH she'll start very short and I think she'll saunter to victory against a very average field.

SRFC

Theres more a chance of me winning the lotto than he not running in the mares hurdle dont waste yer money lads.

andyman

Honestly baffled by people who think Quevega would have little chance in the World Hurdle. If it was between her and Big Bucks I couldn't see her threatening but with BB out of the equation, this field is very poor, and she's a class animal.

Would walk the World Hurdle if she ran.

tipster

shes going 100% for the mares hurdle

TheMilkyPirate

Into 3/1 fave with powers. Could be people smashing into her with NRNB

jimjamcos

rossom wrote: »

I've lumped on at 6/1 with Betvictor NRNB. I still think she'll go to the Mares but if she lines up for the WH she'll start very short and I think she'll saunter to victory against a very average field.

Agree. She stays better than Oscar Whiskey and would out-pace RDS. That's before you even consider her mares allowance and we seen what VLV, a much less talented mare than Quevega, did with that against the champ last year.

klairondavis

She would walk it. We've seen what she did to Voler La Vedette on more than one occasion and that mare gave Big Bucks his greatest challenge.

Johner

I think she would win the World Hurdle this year but don't think it would be as easy as some people seem to think!

rossom

I agree that she is almost certain to go for the Mares but if she turns up to the WH then the 6s I've taken will be massive on the day. In the very likely event that she doesn't, I get my money back with no harm done. No lose situation.

Johner, she'd piss all over the WH. VLV was streets clear of everything last year barring Big Bucks and Quevega has always been in a different league to her. This is a much, much, much less competitive renewal as last years well beaten 5th Oscar Whisky is challenging for favouritism this year. I would be utterly, utterly shocked if she was beaten in the WH if turning up. However, it will more than likely be a moot point as he chances of taking in the race are pretty slim.

Juwwi

I'd say if Mullins taught she could win it I imagine he would run her in it.

They must think she's not good enough.

rossom

robbie1977 wrote: »

I'd say if Mullins taught she could win it I imagine he would run her in it.

They must think she's not good enough.

Highly doubt that. She'll make history by winning the Mare's Hurdle for the 5th consecutive year. If this was her 2nd Festival with no record to be made she'd definitely run in the WH.

Absolutely no way that Mullins doesn't think she is good enough.

tipster

shes been trained for the mares all year so thats her race agree with others here shed piss in in the world hurdle

klairondavis

I suppose there is a slight chance if she wins on Tuesday in a hack canter but it's far more likely she'll just double up at Punchestown again and be put away for next spring or retired to the paddocks.

rossom

klairondavis wrote: »

I suppose there is a slight chance if she wins on Tuesday in a hack canter but it's far more likely she'll just double up at Punchestown again and be put away for next spring or retired to the paddocks.

That's the only way I see her running in the WH. If she wins in a canter and hasn't even had a race then I think connections could be tempted if she comes out of the race very well.

mdwexford

Lol at people thinking she would destroy the World Hurdle.

Be doing well to place imo and certainly wouldnt destroy it.

tipster

mdwexford wrote: »

Lol at people thinking she would destroy the World Hurdle.

Be doing well to place imo and certainly wouldnt destroy it.

care to tell us the reasons:)

byronbay2

mdwexford wrote: »

Lol at people thinking she would destroy the World Hurdle.

Be doing well to place imo and certainly wouldnt destroy it.

Phew, at least there are 2 of us!

rossom

mdwexford wrote: »

Lol at people thinking she would destroy the World Hurdle.

Be doing well to place imo and certainly wouldnt destroy it.

Easily beat Voler La Vedette on the 3 starts they met and she finished 2nd to Big Bucks last year and was 7L clear of the 3rd. Oscar Whisky finished 11.5L behind that day and is one of the leading contenders to land the WH this year. That is loosely tying the form together but how does that quantify to be doing well to place?

She would destroy the field this year.

byronbay2

rossom wrote: »

Easily beat Voler La Vedette on the 3 starts they met and she finished 2nd to Big Bucks last year and was 7L clear of the 3rd. Oscar Whisky finished 11.5L behind that day and is one of the leading contenders to land the WH this year. That is loosely tying the form together but how does that quantify to be doing well to place?

She would destroy the field this year.

I'm surprised at you Rossom - taking 1 piece of collateral form literally is a short cut to the poorhouse! On that basis, Quevega is a better horse than Big Bucks, as is Whatuthink, who beat VLV by 4 1/2L last November. Do you really believe that to be the case??

SRFC

she has beaten Mourad aswell in her career didnt he place in a world hurdle?



She would take some beating in it wouldnt say she would be a certainty like big bucks though.

mdwexford

rossom wrote: »

Easily beat Voler La Vedette on the 3 starts they met and she finished 2nd to Big Bucks last year and was 7L clear of the 3rd. Oscar Whisky finished 11.5L behind that day and is one of the leading contenders to land the WH this year. That is loosely tying the form together but how does that quantify to be doing well to place?

She would destroy the field this year.

VLV for whatever reason ran above herself last year. Obviously Quevega is better than her.

The best horses havent always placed in the World Hurdle in the Big Bucks years because they try and match him and then hit the wall and get passed. If he wasnt in it those races would have been a lot different.

She isnt even the top rated horse in the field so to suggest she would beat 167 rated horses easily means you think she can run to 175 or more even though she has never gotten near that in her career.

She might look impressive in the mares race every year but she is beating a lot of poor horses with not many credible challengers.

To sum up my thoughts she would obviously have a chance, personally I think she would find at least a couple too good but to say she would destroy it or win easily is ludicrous when she isnt top rated by 10lbs.

klairondavis

Does her rating factor in the mare's allowance that she would be in receipt of?

She has never looked troubled against the boys at Punchestown. I don't see any reason why it would be anyway different at Cheltenham. The quality of opposition isn't much better and she appears to relish the 3 mile trip.

liamoreilly

...I reckon if she hacks up in the mares, which i reckon she will, she may go for wh as well...7/1 with ladbrokes still, i think id have my money ready and lash into her as soon as it goes nrnb...do you think they'd change the price before going nrnb or would price just be based on money placed?...

mdwexford

klairondavis wrote: »

Does her rating factor in the mare's allowance that she would be in receipt of?

She has never looked troubled against the boys at Punchestown. I don't see any reason why it would be anyway different at Cheltenham. The quality of opposition isn't much better and she appears to relish the 3 mile trip.

She's three pounds behind and would get seven.

I think only being three behind flatters her a bit.
She's a hard enough horse to nail down given she doesn't run often and when she does its mainly against trees.

The two Punchestown races she won were pretty poor and had nothing of the calibre of Oscar Whisky anyway.

Also lol at anyone thanking rossums post.
Basically says VLV got near Big Bucks and Quevega can smash her so Quevega is the best horse ever.

Nonoperational

I dunno lads, I think 4 mares hurdles and a World hurdle is a bigger achievement than 5 Mares hurdles.

dk6dk6

Quevega has won a few egg and spoon races at Cheltenham and people saying she'd walk the world hurdle, don't make me laugh. If she had any chance at all especially with Big Bucks out she'd be in the race. Fact is Mullins is taking the soft option because he knows the horse is not good enough.

tipster

cant understand people knocking her a couple of those mares hurdles were decent enough races the stayers at punchestown were good races and she went close enough over 2m in the champion hurdle at punchestown.shes pure class although a little fragile hence why she doesnt run often reve de sivola would look like a donkey against her shed cruise through and outpace them but unfortunately ill never get the chance to be proved right:p

dk6dk6

tipster wrote: »

cant understand people knocking her a couple of those mares hurdles were decent enough races the stayers at punchestown were good races and she went close enough over 2m in the champion hurdle at punchestown.shes pure class although a little fragile hence why she doesnt run often reve de sivola would look like a donkey against her shed cruise through and outpace them but unfortunately ill never get the chance to be proved right:p

Because Willie Mullins knows full well you'd be proved wrong and thats why he's taking the soft option in avoiding possibly one of the worst world hurdle fields of all time.

tipster

unfortunately we"ll never find out shell piss in at cheltenham and punchestown and we wont see her again

dk6dk6

tipster wrote: »

unfortunately we"ll never find out shell piss in at cheltenham and punchestown and we wont see her again

Thing with quevega is she's a dodgy betting proposition at around 8/15 as nobody knows her well being as we've little to go on and there will be a year she turns up at Cheltenham and just doesnt have it anymore, maybe that will be this year and maybe Mullins knows she's not as good hence avoiding the big one.

tipster

dk6dk6 wrote: »

Thing with quevega is she's a dodgy betting proposition at around 8/15 as nobody knows her well being as we've little to go on and there will be a year she turns up at Cheltenham and just doesnt have it anymore, maybe that will be this year and maybe Mullins knows she's not as good hence avoiding the big one.

tis true and especially being a mare if shes in the wrong mood who knows but they handle her well and everythings going to plan anyway so far shes tipping away nicely

dk6dk6

tipster wrote: »

tis true and especially being a mare if shes in the wrong mood who knows but they handle her well and everythings going to plan anyway so far shes tipping away nicely

Still wouldnt get involved at 8/15, to risky for little reward. Une Artiste each way bet to nothing maybe.

SRFC

dk6dk6 wrote: »

Thing with quevega is she's a dodgy betting proposition at around 8/15 as nobody knows her well being as we've little to go on and there will be a year she turns up at Cheltenham and just doesnt have it anymore, maybe that will be this year and maybe Mullins knows she's not as good hence avoiding the big one.

Its doubters like you who lay her and make the price every year :pac: she is a freak and will not be coming off the bridle next week I dont usually back mares but this is a model of consistency.

dk6dk6

SRFC wrote: »

Its doubters like you who lay her and make the price every year :pac: she is a freak and will not be coming off the bridle next week I dont usually back mares but this is a model of consistency.

Work away at 8/15 all you want. Wouldnt touch it. You'll have some chasing to do all week if you get burnt on an 8/15 shot.

SRFC

dk6dk6 wrote: »

Work away at 8/15 all you want. Wouldnt touch it. You'll have some chasing to do all week if you get burnt on an 8/15 shot.

She owe's her backers nothing A great mare who has got many a punter out of trouble

kksaints

SRFC wrote: »

Its doubters like you who lay her and make the price every year :pac: she is a freak and will not be coming off the bridle next week I dont usually back mares but this is a model of consistency.

Why may I ask?

Hulk Hands

dk6dk6 wrote: »

Work away at 8/15 all you want. Wouldnt touch it. You'll have some chasing to do all week if you get burnt on an 8/15 shot.

If the layers get stung on Hurricane Fly at 15/8 will you say the same thing? People have a mental block about backing odds on when they really shouldnt. Quevega at anything over 1/2 is the value of the meeting. Same way last year, and the year before. Until she actually gets beaten then you can only be a backer at a price as big as 8/15 (fairly sure we'll see some 4/6 somewhere before race time).

SRFC

kksaints wrote: »

Why may I ask?

They are hormonal as fcuk,come in and out of season,can run differently if in foal,I dont have any confidence in any mare showing the same form from run to run so I tend not to back them prime example is Tarla she has had great days and then ran a few stinkers,sariska is another the list goes on


A racegoer told me once and it always stuck ''fllly's are for kissing not backing'' and I tried to stick to it (not kissing horses) :pac:

dk6dk6

Hulk Hands wrote: »

If the layers get stung on Hurricane Fly at 15/8 will you say the same thing? People have a mental block about backing odds on when they really shouldnt. Quevega at anything over 1/2 is the value of the meeting. Same way last year, and the year before. Until she actually gets beaten then you can only be a backer at a price as big as 8/15 (fairly sure we'll see some 4/6 somewhere before race time).

We'll see, hope she wins as would be great to see but at them odds i wouldnt get involved, as i said a time will come when she flops and i think it could just be sooner than many think.

jimjamcos

dk6dk6 wrote: »

Quevega has won a few egg and spoon races at Cheltenham and people saying she'd walk the world hurdle, don't make me laugh. If she had any chance at all especially with Big Bucks out she'd be in the race. Fact is Mullins is taking the soft option because he knows the horse is not good enough.

How you can say that the horse isn't good enough to win World Hurdle after what VLV did to Oscar Whiskey and Thousand Stars last year is beyond belief. Yes, Big Bucks just always does enough to win his races so distance between him and VLV doesn't mean much. However, VLV was was 10 lengths ahead of Thousand Stars and 11 ahead of Oscar Whiskey. Both Thousand Stars and Oscar Whiskey ran to their mark on all known form between the pair. That is why Mullins has not even entered TS this year as he knows he's not good enough.

In last 4 races between Oscar Whiskey and Thousand Stars the distance between them has been a nk, 1 1/2l, nk, 2l... there is absolutely nothing between Thousand Stars and this years WH favourite. In fact, the form shows that the further they went, TS was getting the better of OW.

Now...do you think that Mullins rates Thousand Stars a better horse than Quevega over 3m? Anyone with a brain between their ears knows Quevega is in a different league to Thousand Stars and Mullins definitely knows it!!!

You keep believing that a horse who couldn't beat Thousand Stars last year is good enough to beat Quevega...lol.

BTW I agree that he's taking the easy option but not because he thinks she isn't good enough. It's because him and Ruby are greedy b#stards and a Cheltenham winner's a Cheltenham winner to them!

lorenzo87

LOL at people that think Quevega would hack up in the world hurdle. This ain't the mares hurdle we are talking about guys, where she faces a bunch of donkeys every time she runs in the race.

Beat United in 2009, who ran 1 race after and was never seen again. Beat Carole's Legacy in 2010, who hasn't been seen since finishing 2nd in Aintree the race after that. Beat Sparky May in 2011, and Sparky May was destroyed twice after that, and last year beat Kentford Grey Lady who has only managed to win a single Class 3 handicap since, pleassssse, she has faced nothing.

For me, Oscar Whisky wins this race.

jimjamcos

lorenzo87 wrote: »

LOL at people that think Quevega would hack up in the world hurdle. This ain't the mares hurdle we are talking about guys, where she faces a bunch of donkeys every time she runs in the race.

Beat United in 2009, who ran 1 race after and was never seen again. Beat Carole's Legacy in 2010, who hasn't been seen since finishing 2nd in Aintree the race after that. Beat Sparky May in 2011, and Sparky May was destroyed twice after that, and last year beat Kentford Grey Lady who has only managed to win a single Class 3 handicap since, pleassssse, she has faced nothing.

For me, Oscar Whisky wins this race.

Fair enough... if you want to slate the quality of her wins fair enough but, like Big Bucks, all she has to do is win and she does that comfortably. Not her fault there's not better mares taking her on and she's there for the boys to take on in Punchestown each year.

One thing's puzzling me though.. How can you disregard Quevega's form and then tip a horse who has never won over 3 miles?!? After last years WH, there were some weak excuses given for the poor run which didn't really stand up given his fine run over optimum distance just a month later. While running well against RDS LTO he had every chance to win the race if he stayed well enough but he was well held. And then more excuses were given!

At least those tipping RDS can argue that he's a proven stayer. Anyone backing Oscar Whiskey in World Hurdle is doing so in hope that his class gets him there. Not a great betting angle IMO.

Hulk Hands

lorenzo87 wrote: »

LOL at people that think Quevega would hack up in the world hurdle. This ain't the mares hurdle we are talking about guys, where she faces a bunch of donkeys every time she runs in the race.

Beat United in 2009, who ran 1 race after and was never seen again. Beat Carole's Legacy in 2010, who hasn't been seen since finishing 2nd in Aintree the race after that. Beat Sparky May in 2011, and Sparky May was destroyed twice after that, and last year beat Kentford Grey Lady who has only managed to win a single Class 3 handicap since, pleassssse, she has faced nothing.

For me, Oscar Whisky wins this race.

What about the 3 Punchestown Stayers Hurdles she has won, beating plenty of good 3m horses?

lorenzo87

jimjamcos wrote: »

Fair enough... if you want to slate the quality of her wins fair enough but, like Big Bucks, all she has to do is win and she does that comfortably. Not her fault there's not better mares taking her on and she's there for the boys to take on in Punchestown each year.

One thing's puzzling me though.. How can you disregard Quevega's form and then tip a horse who has never won over 3 miles?!? After last years WH, there were some weak excuses given for the poor run which didn't really stand up given his fine run over optimum distance just a month later. While running well against RDS LTO he had every chance to win the race if he stayed well enough but he was well held. And then more excuses were given!

At least those tipping RDS can argue that he's a proven stayer. Anyone backing Oscar Whiskey in World Hurdle is doing so in hope that his class gets him there. Not a great betting angle IMO.

Errrrm, how was Oscar well held last time out? He lost by a neck, on heavy ground, and on heavy ground it is harder to make up ground. Different story on good ground at Cheltenham.

What your saying is he can't win because he has never won over 3 miles? He clearly stays 3 miles comfortably, as shown last time out (6 lengths clear of Kentford Grey Lady, Quevega only beat it by 4 lengths in the Mares Hurdle).

The fact is, Oscar Whisky clearly stays 3 miles, so I am not having your argument.

UrbanSea

lorenzo87 wrote: »

Errrrm, how was Oscar well held last time out? He lost by a neck, on heavy ground, and on heavy ground it is harder to make up ground. Different story on good ground at Cheltenham.

What your saying is he can't win because he has never won over 3 miles? He clearly stays 3 miles comfortably, as shown last time out (6 lengths clear of Kentford Grey Lady, Quevega only beat it by 4 lengths in the Mares Hurdle).

The fact is, Oscar Whisky clearly stays 3 miles, so I am not having your argument.

I'd be quite cautious about basing a horse's ability to get the trip just on how close he finished over that distance. Flemenstar was beaten a shade over a length in the Lexus but didn't stay. Hawk Wing second in a Derby but wouldn't say he got the trip.

Would you not be concerned about how far he was beaten last year?

lorenzo87

RichieLawlessness wrote: »

I'd be quite cautious about basing a horse's ability to get the trip just on how close he finished over that distance. Flemenstar was beaten a shade over a length in the Lexus but didn't stay. Hawk Wing second in a Derby but wouldn't say he got the trip.

Would you not be concerned about how far he was beaten last year?

Listen, if Henderson didn't think he would stay, he would have gone down the Champion Hurdle route with the horse. Last year, Oscar was not at his best, it was clear to see, he did not pick up when asked, and was off the bridle a fair way out. I really really doubt the horse was right that day, just like Hurricane Fly last year. They are animals, not machines afterall.

I thought his run behind RDS was hugely satisfactory last time out, travelled like the winner coming to the last, but the heavy ground was his undoing I reckon, if he can travel like that for 2m 5f on heavy ground, there is no doubting he will stay 3 miles on good ground.

But hey, that is just my tuppence lads, I am not saying I am right, it is just my opinion. I do, however, think Quevega would find it very tough in this years World Hurdle, but I guess we won't know so there is no point debating it.

jimjamcos

lorenzo87 wrote: »

Errrrm, how was Oscar well held last time out? He lost by a neck, on heavy ground, and on heavy ground it is harder to make up ground. Different story on good ground at Cheltenham.

What your saying is he can't win because he has never won over 3 miles? He clearly stays 3 miles comfortably, as shown last time out (6 lengths clear of Kentford Grey Lady, Quevega only beat it by 4 lengths in the Mares Hurdle).

The fact is, Oscar Whisky clearly stays 3 miles, so I am not having your argument.

Maybe Oscar Whiskey stays 3 mile but does he stay it better than RDS? Clearly not. Any horse of quality will give the impression he 'stays' against an inferior class of opposition as he'll travel much easier throughout the race. OW was cantering all over RDS in The Cleeve, had more than enough opportunity to pass him if good enough yet couldn't. Ground wont make much difference.. Dickie Johnson's no fool and he's sure to take it up much earlier in WH and make it more of a stamina test.

Whatever way the Cleeve had been run, RDS would have held OW. Not saying Oscar Whiskey wouldn't win races over 3m, just not top races with a proven stayer such as RDS in them.

I see you're happy to nitpick and use Kentford Grey Lady as a yardstick now all of a sudden after crabbing Quevega's form in previous post? :rolleyes: It's of no relevance were KGL came behind both, as a beaten horse, anyway...just watch back all Quevega's runs over 3m and Oscar Whiskey's 2 runs over the trip and tell me she doesn't see out 3m better .. she wins her races with plenty in hand don't worry! :cool: