March 2013 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT, an average of five selected stations, which has averaged 6.9 C for the 30-yr period 1981 to 2010.

2. Predict the highest daily maximum at any reporting (met.ie) station.

3. Predict the lowest daily minimum at any reporting (met.ie) station.

4. Predict the monthly precip as a percentage of normal (for 11 reporting stations in met.ie Monthly Summary)

5. Predict the monthly sunshine as a percentage of normal (for 6 reporting stations in met.ie Monthly Summary)

6. Bonus -- Predict the maximum temperature at any station reporting on the met.ie website for the 17th.

TEMPLATE

IMT ..... MAX ..... MIN .... PRC ..... SUN ..... max-17

---

Deadlines for entry ... you have until the end of the day on Friday 1st of March, to enter without penalty. The actual deadline is set at 0300h on Saturday 2nd. After that, it's five point penalties for each half-day late, 0300 to 1500 and 1500 to 0300h used to determine half days.

I am going to see where we are at with the entry form, so just think about your entries for today, and check back to see if there is an entry form option ... however, as with last month, entries made the old-fashioned way will count too, and perhaps this time I will not overlook them (sorry, JS).

M.T. Cranium

Use the link provided in the next post (by Harps) to enter. Thanks.

Harps

That link doesn't seem to work.. it seems to be the same link as the February contest, copied this straight from that thread and it now shows up as March

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/viewform?formkey=dElyZTJQeUJzVjdnQ1JBcThYdHpCSEE6MQ

As a side note, I've seen sponge bob post a few times in the Galway City forum this week so he seems to be back again, hopefully he might return to our little corner of boards at one stage or another!

omicron

Done.

pauldry

Done

Strasser

Done

Bsal

Done.

cherryghost

Done and thanks for the Patrick's Day wishes.

Joe Public

Done

Jpmarn

Done

Rikand

Done

H2UMrsRobinson

Done

mickger844posts

Done

Harps

Done

John mac

done.

delw

Done

nilhg

Done

dacogawa

Done! and Happy drinkys Patrick's day to you too

DOCARCH

Done

talkabout

Done

okla

Done

SeaFields

Done

MiNdGaM3

Done

snowstreams

Done

Rebelbrowser

Done

Tae laidir

Done

jd

Done

lostinashford

Done

homolumo

done

dasa29

Done.

traecy1

Done

rameire

done

waterways

done

M.T. Cranium

March forecast contest entries
________________________________________


Forecaster ................ IMT ... MAX ... MIN ... PRC ... SUN ... Max-17th
____________________________________________________________


lostinashford ............ 8.9 .... 16.7 .... -3.2 .... 082 .... 112 .... 14.7
H2UMrsRobinson....... 7.9 .... 17.0 .... -3.5 .... 110 .... 079 .... 13.3
MiNdGaM3 ............... 7.5 .... 16.9 .... -4.8 .... 100 .... 099 .... 14.0
jpmarn .................... 7.4 .... 18.5 .... -1.5 .... 074 .... 121 .... 13.1
nabber .................... 7.3 .... 20.1 .... -6.6 .... 088 .... 107 .... 16.5
nilhg ....................... 7.2 .... 15.5 .... -3.1 .... 080 .... 090 .... 12.2
Gonzo ..................... 7.1 .... 19.2 .... -4.2 .... 083 .... 068 .... 14.5
John mac ................. 7.1 .... 16.3 .... -3.1 .... 103 .... 122 .... 15.2
bejubby ................... 7.0 .... 12.0 .... -4.0 .... 085 .... 090 .... 10.0
dacogawa ................ 7.0 .... 14.9 .... -3.9 .... 130 .... 082 .... 10.5
Bsal ........................ 7.0 .... 14.4 .... -5.2 .... 101 .... 098 .... 13.0
rickylovesuall ........... 7.0 .... 17.5 .... -2.5 .... 090 .... 120 .... 14.0
jd ........................... 7.0 .... 18.2 .... -3.0 .... 105 .... 105 .... 16.2
cherryghost ............. 7.0 .... 18.1 .... -3.5 .... 090 .... 105 .... 15.0
traecy 1 .................. 7.0 .... 17.6 .... -3.5 .... 110 .... 090 .... 12.8
waterways (-5) ........ 7.0 .... 19.0 .... -3.5 .... 100 .... 090 .... 11.0
omicron .................. 6.9 .... 17.0 .... -3.5 .... 100 .... 100 .... 15.0
Strasser .................. 6.9 .... 18.0 .... -4.0 .... 095 .... 105 .... 11.1
Seafields ................. 6.9 .... 17.0 .... -3.5 .... 100 .... 120 .... 16.8

Con Sensus ............. 6.8 .... 17.5 .... -3.5 .... 093 .... 105 .... 13.9

kindredspirit ............ 6.8 .... 16.0 .... -5.8 .... 080 .... 115 ...... 8.0
talkabout ................ 6.8 .... 16.7 .... -3.1 .... 090 .... 105 .... 13.9
homolumo ............... 6.7 .... 15.1 .... -3.6 .... 103 .... 109 .... 12.3
200motels ............... 6.7 .... 17.9 .... -3.9 .... 075 .... 109 .... 12.9
DOCARCH ................ 6.7 .... 18.2 .... -4.2 .... 085 .... 095 .... 16.1
rebelbrowser ............ 6.6 .... 16.8 .... -3.8 .... 065 .... 131 .... 14.0
Tae laidir ................. 6.6 .... 18.3 .... -5.1 .... 056 .... 132 .... 10.9
okla ........................ 6.5 .... 15.9 .... -3.6 .... 092 .... 104 .... 12.5
Pauldry .................... 6.5 .... 17.1 .... -3.8 .... 103 .... 109 .... 11.0
snowstreams ............ 6.5 .... 19.8 .... -3.8 .... 096 .... 110 .... 16.5
M.T. Cranium ............ 6.4 .... 17.7 .... -5.0 .... 120 .... 120 .... 15.0
harps ....................... 6.3 .... 16.9 .... -3.5 .... 085 .... 090 .... 11.1
rameire .................... 6.3 .... 19.7 .... -4.5 .... 095 .... 105 .... 12.5
mickger844posts ....... 6.2 .... 17.8 .... -1.9 .... 078 .... 110 .... 14.2
Jerry Seinfeld (-10) ... 6.2 .... 18.0 .... -5.5 .... 100 .... 100 .... 10.0
Joe Public ................. 5.9 .... 19.9 .... -5.9 .... 079 .... 129 ...... 9.9
delw......................... 5.1 .... 14.0 .... -1.0 .... 090 .... 087 .... 11.0
dasa29 .................... 5.0 .... 14.0 .... -5.0 .... 090 .... 120 .... 14.0


______________________________

Entries still welcome, either on the thread or into the form (post 3) ... at this point you're saving me a step by posting on the thread. Thanks.

dasa29

Hi Mt,

you have my entry wrong, i just double checked the speadsheet and on it my entry is
imt 5, Max 14 min -5, Prc 90, Sun 120, max-17th 14,

Speak Now

Doh!!!!! Forgot this

6.2 ..... 18..... -5.5.... 100..... 100..... 10

M.T. Cranium

Thanks, Jerry, and sorry dasa29, normally I am inkapabl of eror but I will check the table against everyone's entry later if I can print it out, looks like I got cross-eyed because half your entry was right and the other half was next to yours.

As I say, it's rair for me to make any sort of misteak specially when it comes to wurds or numbres.

Edit ... checked the form, think everything else is okay.

M.T. Cranium

-4.9 C at Gurteen (2nd) and Athenry (1st-2nd probably a midnight reading).

Will that stand? Time will tell.

M.T. Cranium

Tracking the plunge of the IMT ...

after Sat 9th ... 5.7 C

after Sun 10th ... 5.4 C

after Mon 11th ... 4.9 C

pauldry

Temperatures of close to minus 7 were recorded in Sligo and Roscommon last night.

This is yet to verify though

Certainly looks like 5.something could be the IMT for the end of March with more cold weather on the way for Paddys weekend

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday brought the IMT down further, to 4.5 C. The daily mean was 0.5 C.

We have a new MIN of -7.6 C (Markree) and that is also coldest of the (extended) winter season.

Precip during this cold spell has been very low especially at the eleven sites used, so we're stalled in the range of 65% of normal to this point. Looks like that should increase gradually over the next five days.

Sunshine is about normal so far, thanks to about three bright days here and there.

The MIN has fallen well outside the range of our predictions which means that the points for that are now set. Nabber will nab 18 for his guess of -6.6 ... Joe Public has expropriated 16 and kindredspirit has spirited away 14. Those are the only forecasts that would qualify for any points on regular rules so the rest of the points table will be getting a total gift of 1-13 points (you can look up your rank and figure out that part). I see Jerry saying what's with my 13 points? Bsal (12) and Tae laidir (11) then dasa29,MTC (10 each) next up for the emergency rations. If you said -4 and change, you'll probably score something between 1 and 8.

Speak Now

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I see Jerry saying what's with my 13 points?

13 Minus 10

pauldry

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

13 Minus 10

13 minus 13 for me

pauldry

Max temp so far appears to be 9c sherkin island but could be 8.something

Joe Public

pauldry wrote: »

Max temp so far appears to be 9c sherkin island but could be 8.something

Possibly a happy St Patrick's Day to me.

Nabber

Happy with the -6.6
Was risky. But it paid off

M.T. Cranium

The bonus question, highest MAX in Ireland on the 17th, is confirmed at 9.0 C which makes the scoring easy, same as the (reverse) order of forecasts. Joe Public at 9.9 edged out Kindredspirit at 8.0, but they share top score of ten with bejubby and Jerry Seinfeld who both guessed 10.0 ... KS had the only guess below the actual.

The IMT meanwhile is stuck at 4.2 C after yesterday and shows only faint signs of recovery, the main question now is whether or not the IMT will make it back into our forecast range (low forecast is 5.0) and whether or not the scoring will require a touch of help from the minimum progression rule (which applies to the whole range of scores). Seems rather likely that assistance will be forthcoming. The current charts don't hold much promise of a finish higher than 5.0, even if there were a few warmer days at the end, by then they don't shift the numbers much (4.5 on 28th for example, then three days at 10, leaves the result at 5.1).

With heavy precip in the forecast period, the current estimate of 50% means very little, we'll be better to assess this figure by next weekend.

M.T. Cranium

It's looking increasingly possible that March will come in colder than the three winter months. The IMT has now sunk to 4.1 C after 20 days and there are forecasts of colder days ahead without too much compensation on the up side, so the finishing point might be anywhere from 3.5 to 4.5 depending on how severe the cold spell is, and how much last minute warmth can be found.

Precip before today's heavier rainfall was sitting close to 50% of normal or 35% of the monthly normal values, either way, a downpour of 30 mm would adjust the running totals to about 100% of normal and 70% of the eventual monthly averages, which means that if the eleven stations do manage to average 30 mm (probably a high end estimate) then a further 30 mm will be required to make the month end values normal at that point. The charts have some further potential for precip but perhaps not that much, so 80-90 per cent looks the most likely end result now.

Sunshine has been running about normal or a bit below, so a lot will depend on whether the easterly flow is cloudy or largely cloud-free next week.

M.T. Cranium

After 24 days the IMT is at 4.1 C but that's rounded up from 4.06 and I suspect it will settle into the high 3s during the week, maybe even mid 3s. In any case, it appears almost certain that the "minimum progression" rule will be required to give the field any sort of scoring on the IMT now. So, you who went low are locked into 23 and 20 points for first and second, then we go 18, 16, 15 etc all the way down to one point, except if the natural scoring is higher in any case then you get that instead. This rule has saved many in the past, as a group I would have to say this was all rather dimly foreseen although some gave it a nod.

The April contest will be posted soon, thanks to the help of S.B. on the form. I think I may open it later this evening in fact.

M.T. Cranium

IMT now on 3.7 C, continuing to drift down about like the snow, meanwhile would say precip set to finish on 80 per cent give or take, unless unexpectedly heavy precip hits by Sunday. Sunshine seems a bit low also.

M.T. Cranium

Provisional scoring for March

Since the "minimum progression" (mercy) rule will apply to all temperature forecasts and the bonus scoring is settled, we can estimate final scoring as follows, based on the values shown.

Forecaster ................ IMT ... MAX ... MIN ... PRC ... SUN ... Max-17th
____________________________________________________________

Actual values ............ 3.5 ... 13.2 ... <-7.0 .... 080 .... 090 .... 9.0

dasa29 .................... 23* ... 18* ... 11* ... 12 .... 04 .... 05 ..... 73
delw......................... 20* ... 18* ... 00 .... 12 .... 09 .... 09 ..... 68
Joe Public ................. 18* ... 00 .... 16* ... 15 .... 02 .... 10 ..... 61
kindredspirit ............ 03* ... 08* ... 14* ... 15 .... 05 .... 10 ...... 55
bejubby ................... 00 .... 14* ... 05* ... 13 .... 10 .... 10 ..... 52
Bsal ........................ 00 .... 14* ... 13* ... 08 .... 08 .... 06 ..... 49
harps ....................... 14* ... 03* ... 01* ... 13 .... 10 .... 08 .... 49
Jerry Seinfeld (-10) ... 16* ... 00 .... 15* ... 09 .... 08 .... 10 ..... 58-10=48
okla ........................ 11* ... 09* ... 02* ... 11 .... 07 .... 07 ..... 47
rameire .................... 14* ... 00 .... 08* ... 10 .... 07 .... 07 ..... 46
nilhg ....................... 00 .... 10* ... 00 .... 15 .... 10 .... 08 ..... 43
mickger844posts ....... 16* ... 00 .... 00 .... 14 ... 06 .... 05 ..... 41
nabber .................... 00 .... 00 .... 18* ... 12 .... 07 .... 03 ..... 40
homolumo ............... 06* ... 11* ... 02* ... 07 .... 06 .... 08 ..... 40
Tae laidir ................. 08* ... 00 .... 12* ... 07 .... 02 .... 09 ..... 38
DOCARCH ................ 06* ... 00 .... 07* ... 13 .... 09 .... 03 ..... 38
Pauldry .................... 11* ... 00 .... 03* ... 07 .... 06 .... 09 ..... 36
200motels ............... 06* ... 00 .... 03* ... 13 .... 06 .... 07 ..... 35
MiNdGaM3 ............... 00 .... 03* ... 09* ... 08 .... 08 .... 05 ..... 33
M.T. Cranium ............ 12* ... 00 ... 11* ... 02 .... 04 .... 04 ..... 33
talkabout ................. 03* ... 06* ... 00 .... 12 .... 07 .... 05 ..... 33
rebelbrowser ............ 08* ... 04* ... 03*... 10 .... 02 .... 05 ..... 32
snowstreams ............ 11* ... 00 .... 03* ... 10 .... 06 .... 02 ..... 32
dacogawa ................ 00 .... 12* ... 03* ... 00 .... 08 .... 09 ..... 32
Strasser .................. 01* ... 00 .... 05* ... 10 .... 07 .... 08 ..... 31
Gonzo ..................... 00 .... 00 .... 07* ... 14 .... 06 .... 04 ..... 31
lostinashford ............ 00 .... 06* ... 00 .... 14 .... 06 .... 04 ..... 30

Con Sensus ............. 03* ... 00 .... 01* ... 11 .... 07 .... 05 ..... 27

cherryghost ............. 00 .... 00 .... 01* ... 12 .... 07 .... 04 ..... 24
traecy 1 .................. 00 .... 00 .... 01* ... 05 .... 10 .... 07 ..... 23
waterways (-5) ........ 00 .... 00 .... 01* ... 08 .... 10 .... 09 ..... 28-5=23
omicron .................. 01* ... 01* ... 01* ... 08 .... 08 .... 04 ..... 23
John mac ................. 00 .... 07* ... 00 .... 07 .... 04 .... 03 ..... 21
H2UMrsRobinson....... 00 .... 01* ... 01* ... 05 .... 08 .... 06 ..... 21
jpmarn .................... 00 .... 00 .... 00 .... 13 .... 02 .... 06 ..... 21
rickylovesuall ........... 00 .... 00 .... 00 .... 12 .... 04 .... 05 ..... 21
Seafields ................. 01* ... 01* ... 01*... 08 .... 04 .... 02 ..... 17
jd ........................... 00 .... 00 .... 00 .... 07 .... 07 .... 03 ..... 17
__________________________________

* scores are determined from "minimum progression" rule

This scoring table will be updated around 2 April from the actual precip and sunshine values.

Let me know if you spot any problems. At least most of us beat Con Sensus for a change.