Saturday 23rd

TheMilkyPirate

Would love to see Nacarat win again tomorrow on what will probably be his swansong, But alas I have sided with Wyck hill, JPs newest purchase looks exciting and his 4 length beating of Katenko looks even more impressive now.

In the Eider I've gone for the top weight Master overseer. I always seem to catch him on an off day so I've probably put paid to his chances for tomorrow already.

rossom

2.00 Fairyhouse

Forever Gold 12/1

This horse is a plot waiting to happen and I think that today is the day the handbrake will be lifted off Forever Gold on his handicap debut for which Philip Enright gets down to his joint lowest weight of the last 12 months of 9-10 to take the ride and in a race worth €15,000 to the winner. This 6 year old son of Gold Well is the first foal of Clonbrook Lass who was a full sister to Henrietta Knight's excellent RSA winning Lord Noelie and is trained, owned and bred by notorious gambler Ed Cawley. Forever made the perfect start to his career when winning a Point To Point on his debut at Oldtown in March last year when scoring by 1L from Phone Home (who had previous experience) and has looked a promising recruit for Nick Mitchell in England this season. Additionally the 3rd, 4th and 6th have subsequently score in modest Point To Points and given that he reportedly was pretty green he certainly looked to have a future on the racecourse. His debut Under Rules came a month later in a Fairyhouse Bumper over 18f when finishing a very promising 8.25L beaten 5th in a race full of some very nice types. Held up towards the rear of the field, Forever Gold ended up getting detached from the main body of the field as he received reminders before entering the home bend as he looked a bit clueless but he stayed on very well late on and it was certainly a promising run in a race where the very promising Balnaslow and Mr Watson finished in front of him and the equally promising Legal Exit and Sraid Padraig finished behind him and it reaffirms that Forever Gold is a horse of considerable potential. He took the summer off before making a very eye catching hurdling debut 7 months later in November last year.

At Down Royal over 2m under todays jockey Philip Enright, Forever Gold travelled very smoothly into the contest and it very much looked to me as if Enright was did a great acting job in 'cajoling' his mount along to finish a 9L beaten 5th. I'm convinced Forever Gold was still full of running at the end of the contest. That race looks useful enough form without being fantastic with the winner Art Of Logistics (who carried a penalty) looking a useful sort whilst the runner up Toye Native has won a Maiden Hurdle subsequently. Forever Gold's 2nd start over hurdles came at todays course over 18f at the start of Decemeber in an extremely hot contest including Bright New Dawn, Ned Buntline and Mala Beach and it looked very clear he was just out for a spin as he finished well beaten having being dropped out the back for the entire contest. Forever Gold's next start came a couple of weeks later over 2m at Navan when Enright picked up a 4 day ban for failing to obtain the best position possible as he finished an 18L beaten 5th and watching back the contest its easy to see why the jockey received a ban. Sitting in 2nd or 3rd throughout, Forever Gold made a bad mistake at 5 out but it didn't seem to effect him too much as he dropped from 3rd to 5th going around the home turn despite travelling well. In the home straight, it actually looked as if Philip Enright took a pull on a few occasions as he fell back to 7th before easily getting back into 5th when a bit of rein was given to him. Reading the reasoning provided to the Stewards, its quite funny with Cawley stating "he preferred that the whip not to be used today in the ground" and "I was satisfied with the ride". I bet he was!! Although the winner Wing Tips is a very nice horse, the other horses in the race's form looks pretty dreadful but he again finished full of running. Forever Gold's final start came at Leopardstown in a Maiden Hurdle at the end of December in a race where he was never put into the race again under Paul Carberry and although he didn't look full of running that day it was his 3rd start in less than a month so he was probably a bit fatigued and he wasn't given a hard time.

For those 4 start in hurdles, Forever Gold has been assigned a handicap mark of 106 (races 1lb out of the handicap today) and given that he's never really been put into a race or allowed to finish one off its quite hard to gauge how good he is over hurdles in relation to his mark but given the form of his Point To Point and Bumper run I certainly feel it looks potentially quite lenient. Additionally, he certainly finds quite a bit off the bridle as demonstrated in his Bumper run and I'm sure there is more to come. With regards to todays race, it is actually a pretty decent contest but he's receiving a load of weight from his rivals - at least 10lb excluding the 2nd bottom weight - and his featherweight is a huge positive in testing conditions such as this. Indeed, the 3 horses at the top of the market have to concede Forever Gold 23lb or 24lb and that is an awful lot of weight to give away. Philip Enright takes the ride for the 3rd time having been quite easy on this 6 year old on his other two starts to date but you can be sure he's not getting down to 9-10 not to go easy on him again today. Ed Cawley, whose known to land the odd large punt, clearly has his horses in good order as his last runner was successful. The market will definitely reveal whether or not today is the day for Forever Gold but I'd be very surprised if it wasn't given the sizeable prize money on offer. In addition to receiving a lot of weight, pretty much every runner in the contest has significant question marks (and I hope Berties Dream is given a lovely spin around before heading to Cheltenham) and it looks a very winnable contest. Thoroughly unexposed, I certainly think he could be on a very nice effective mark of 107 and if all goes to plan then hopefully he lands this contest at a nice price.

rossom

1.55 Lingfield

My Own Way Home 25/1

A risky selection in the Blue Square Sprint Series Final given that its by far the most competitive race David Evans highly tried 5 year old has run in for quite a while but it also represents this Mare's lowest ever handicap mark of 57 and with Noel Garbutt 7lb claim getting her down to a featherweight of just 8 stone I'm hopeful for a big run from David Evans charge in a race worth over £11k for the winner and a contest he took back in 2011. Despite being 0-15 on the AW, there is no doubt in my mind about her effectiveness on the surface and she has 3 wins to her name on turf (most recently in August last year off a mark of 62). She's already had 5 starts this year (all over this C+D), finishing a very unlucky 0.75L 2nd off a mark of 60 (Willie Twiston-Davies claimed 5lb) when extremely badly hampered before finishing like a train on the 5th of January and she ran another fine race off a mark of 63 on her next start a week later under Adam Kirby when finishing fast in 4th 1.5L behind the winner. That race has worked out really nicely with the runner up Picansort scoring 3 times subsequently including off a 9lb higher mark (although blinkers have clearly had a huge impact) and very interesting tomorrow's favourite Temple Road - who was probably unlucky that day as he hung left when looking the certain winner 1f out - scoring very, very impressively off the same mark on his only subsequent start. Given that Temple Road only finished a neck in front of My Own Way home and there is a massive 20lb swing in the weights when taking into consideration Garbutt's claim, the price disparity between the pair based on that effort looks huge given that the race was only 42 days ago but My Own Way Home's 3 subsequent starts have clearly been a factor in that.

My Own Way Home's 3 latest runs - the latest 7 days ago - have been solid if not fantastic being beaten about 3.5L on each occasion in finishing midfield but her mark has subsequently gone from 62 to 57 in less than a month as a result. A horse that is pretty one paced, My Own Way Home will be looking for the race to collapse as the result of a frantic gallop (race was slowly run LTO) and given the money on offer and looking through the field I think there is a strong chance of that happening today. She's got a lovely draw in stall 4 which should hopefully allow her to adopt a position not too far off the pace and the red hot David Evans seems extremely adept to getting his horses to suddenly peak despite running frequently. Noel Garbutt (1-6 for the yard) takes the ride for the first time on what is his only engagement of the day and his claim means her racing weight is 24lb below that of Temple Roads which is an awful lot of weight to give away over 6f. If Evans has worked the oracle with her and has somehow gotten her to peak just 7 days after her last race then My Own Way Home is both handicapped and weighted to run a massive race. She's going to have to get an untroubled passage and a race run to suit if she's going to land this prize but that is clearly factored her price tag but given that David Evans can do very little wrong at present and this is a big prize he won two years ago I certainly think My Own Way Home is capable of running a very big race.

longshotvalue

3:50 Kempton

Going to go with one of the big outsiders here in Hectors Choice, he was second in this race last year of 1lb higher, and won a very decent race at Cheltenham of only 1 lb lower. He is clearly a good ground horse and it looks as if he’ll be getting that tomorrow. He has had a prep race over hurdles on unsuitable soft ground lately and should strip fitter for that run. Hopefully this race has been the plan after last year’s good show and 55 win 10 place on Betfair looks huge.


1 Point win @ 55 1 Point place @11 Betfair


3:50 Kempton

What a Friend, looks to have been given a small chance by the handicapper here, especially considering his run this time last year in the Denman Chase. He had one poor run at Aintree last year after falling in the Gold Cup and that is the reason for his big price here. He has a very decent record fresh and loved better ground. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he can stay on into a place here and 33/1 looks decent value.
1 Point ew 33/1 Various

3:20 Chepstow.


Cornas, has a very decent record fresh, and in my view has been dropped a generous amount for his poor run in April last year. Other than that run he was a model of consistency during the year and despite not running this year he looks a big price here at 12/1.


1 Point win 12/1 with Bet365

droidman123

I,m going with our island at a decent price in the 2.55 newcastle.ran a reasonable race in the welsh national and i,m hoping the extra 4 furlongs today will benifit him.going wont be a problem. I also like the look of doeslessthan me in the 3.20 cheps.beaten behind the decent molotof over 2m4f last time out, this 2m trip should suit him better.wyck hill has to be my nap,i love this horse and it won twice already this season for me.thomas wild in the 2.45 cheps is another one i like,back over hurdles.finally,temple road was impressive at lingfield 2weeks ago, i think it can move up to this class.anyways,happy punting to everyone and good luck

ste2010

droidman123 wrote: »

I,m going with our island at a decent price in the 2.55 newcastle.ran a reasonable race in the welsh national and i,m hoping the extra 4 furlongs today will benifit him.going wont be a problem. I also like the look of doeslessthan me in the 3.20 cheps.beaten behind the decent molotof over 2m4f last time out, this 2m trip should suit him better.wyck hill has to be my nap,i love this horse and it won twice already this season for me.thomas wild in the 2.45 cheps is another one i like,back over hurdles.finally,temple road was impressive at lingfield 2weeks ago, i think it can move up to this class.anyways,happy punting to everyone and good luck

Newcastle is off due to snow

MoscowFlyer

Id love to go nuts on TEMPLE ROAD at Lingfield 1.55 but the fact he has been drawn in Stall 10 is a bit of a worry. BLACK CADILLAC also in a wide draw in Stall 12 so you could potentially see a bigish price winner in that race and I see that rossom has tipped one up!

NAP for today is Lac Fontana Kempton 3.15. Really good first run behind Chatterbox a fortnight ago so should come on for that and I'd expect this horse to come out on top today. Around a 2/1 shot.

droidman123

ste2010 wrote: »

Newcastle is off due to snow

Yeah,damn,I,m just back from the bookies,I thought it was chepstow that was dodgy.I was really looking forward to the eider

carmanard

Today, I have put the mockers on Opening Batsman in the Racing Post Chase, Hollow Penny in the 4.25 at Kempton and Doeslessthanme at Chepstow. Small stakes e/w patent, a win & two places would see me happy enough!!!

carmanard

Also, as an aside, saw bet365 offering 16/1 for Opening Batsman for the last race on the Tuesday of Cheltenham, had a small nibble at that figuring if he runs well today he'll be half the price by then & if he runs a stinker they'll pull him & it's money back. One can dream I suppose...:)

BQQ

I've taken a punt on Quinz in the 3:50 at Kempton.

Won this race in 2011 off the same mark.
Also won a h'cap hurdle by 20L at Kempton around this time in 2010.
Richard Johnson, who has won this race 5 times since 2000, chose him over Duke of Lucca.
Hobbs has also trained more winners of this race than anyone.

superfurry1

Dogora evens in the first at fairyhouse looks a big price should win better win ha also eoin griffins in the last at 10's

Slattsy

Really fancy Rolling Aces today in the RP chase at Kempton.
His form is rock solid.

While looking through the form of his Newbury win, I noticed that 6 horses behind him have come out and won since.
The horse that was second that day was Merry King who was only beaten a nose to Connington Brook in the Tommy Whittle at Haydock. Serious pieces of form.
He also best Opening Batsman 11 lengths who reopposss today at Wincanton on his last run.
And before that he chased home Hadrians Approach in a beginners chase at Ascot. HA has gone on to fill the runner up spot behind classy types Dynaste and Unioniste.
Again great form.

The step up in trip will suit Rolling Aces down to the ground.
I am slightly concerned about the good ground as it'll be the quickest he's raced on but Nicholls seems confident he'll have no problems with it.

I'm expecting a very bold show today.

MonkstownHoop

Irish Saint 2.05 Kempton is my only bet so far today 6/4

ste2010

superfurry1 wrote: »

Dogora evens in the first at fairyhouse looks a big price should win better win ha also eoin griffins in the last at 10's

Personally Stockton wings would e my selection. Good form behind our conor blood cotil

TheMilkyPirate

ste2010 wrote: »

Personally Stockton wings would e my selection. Good form behind our conor blood cotil

On stocktons wing myself

EDIT: Chapman commentating again! lol

ste2010

rossom wrote: »

2.00 Fairyhouse

Forever Gold 12/1

This horse is a plot waiting to happen and I think that today is the day the handbrake will be lifted off Forever Gold on his handicap debut for which Philip Enright gets down to his joint lowest weight of the last 12 months of 9-10 to take the ride and in a race worth €15,000 to the winner. This 6 year old son of Gold Well is the first foal of Clonbrook Lass who was a full sister to Henrietta Knight's excellent RSA winning Lord Noelie and is trained, owned and bred by notorious gambler Ed Cawley. Forever made the perfect start to his career when winning a Point To Point on his debut at Oldtown in March last year when scoring by 1L from Phone Home (who had previous experience) and has looked a promising recruit for Nick Mitchell in England this season. Additionally the 3rd, 4th and 6th have subsequently score in modest Point To Points and given that he reportedly was pretty green he certainly looked to have a future on the racecourse. His debut Under Rules came a month later in a Fairyhouse Bumper over 18f when finishing a very promising 8.25L beaten 5th in a race full of some very nice types.

No sign of 12's anymore good shout Rossom got on at 10's this morning. Looks like its the gamble of the day

3ndahalfof6

BQQ wrote: »

I've taken a punt on Quinz in the 3:50 at Kempton.

Won this race in 2011 off the same mark.
Also won a h'cap hurdle by 20L at Kempton around this time in 2010.
Richard Johnson, who has won this race 5 times since 2000, chose him over Duke of Lucca.
Hobbs has also trained more winners of this race than anyone.

I agree could be worth a small punt, anyone know what the problem was? why the long absence?

if it was a wind problem and it is now corrected, 14/1 could look very big.

3ndahalfof6

CHEPSTOW 4:30 KINKEEL 20/1,

weight, ground, distance, seem to be a plus, not sure about the jockey.

droidman123

Good to see Alan king getting a winner in a poor season by his standards.I normally follow him and choc,hope his stable hits form coming up to the festival.

Gringo180

Slattsy wrote: »

Really fancy Rolling Aces today in the RP chase at Kempton.
His form is rock solid.

While looking through the form of his Newbury win, I noticed that 6 horses behind him have come out and won since.
The horse that was second that day was Merry King who was only beaten a nose to Connington Brook in the Tommy Whittle at Haydock. Serious pieces of form.
He also best Opening Batsman 11 lengths who reopposss today at Wincanton on his last run.
And before that he chased home Hadrians Approach in a beginners chase at Ascot. HA has gone on to fill the runner up spot behind classy types Dynaste and Unioniste.
Again great form.

The step up in trip will suit Rolling Aces down to the ground.
I am slightly concerned about the good ground as it'll be the quickest he's raced on but Nicholls seems confident he'll have no problems with it.

I'm expecting a very bold show today.

Same Difference also chased home Hadrians Approach and was beaten the exact same distance as Rolling Aces was yet Same Difference is carrying 11lbs less than Rolling Aces. So worth keeping an eye on Twiston Davies horse who I reckon will go close.

rossom

Forever Gold was shocking. They got the gamble horribly, horribly wrong.

Hulk Hands

Ruby was terrific there

UrbanSea

Delighted to see Dazzling Suzie run well, Love that mare, thought she looked really good winning two novice chases in the summer

Ray Mond

What a ride by ruby top class

Colonel Sanders

If Brick Red is worth a rating of 146 Lac Fontana would nearly want to be as good as far west to beat him here

UrbanSea

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

If Brick Red is worth a rating of 146 Lac Fontana would nearly want to be as good as far west to beat him here

Good 10 minutes for Danehill Dancer, that Grade 2 and the Listed at Ling

Overthelast

Forgotten Voice, impressive.

Colonel Sanders

Chemical just on C4 there, said he's "particularly happy" with Binocular which might explain the champion hurdle cash during the week

prettyboy81

Overthelast wrote: »

Forgotten Voice, impressive.

Supposedly this is the flat horse that Simonsig smashed on the gallops last week at 7 barrows.

Colonel Sanders

RichieLawlessness wrote: »

Good 10 minutes for Danehill Dancer, that Grade 2 and the Listed at Ling

Couldn't fathom the price of Lac Fontana this morning

Was out all day so only got in before the race when the market had corrected. He was out to almost 3/1 at that stage. I'm not really a layer so would probably had backed Brick Red had the prices still mirrored what Betfair was showing early this morning

droidman123

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Couldn't fathom the price of Lac Fontana this morning

Was out all day so only got in before the race when the market had corrected. He was out to almost 3/1 at that stage. I'm not really a layer so would probably had backed Brick Red had the prices still mirrored what Betfair was showing early this morning

I had brick red @ 3/1

Colonel Sanders

droidman123 wrote: »

I had brick red @ 3/1

I'd have backed him at that kind of price tbh

SRFC

Probert on that even money poke in Lingfield my god he's bad I'd be fuming if I was on it.

hawkhead

SRFC wrote: »

Probert on that even money poke in Lingfield my god he's bad I'd be fuming if I was on it.

It was a shocker all right

MoscowFlyer

Shocking ride from Probert

---

Wyck Hill jumping horribly so far

Slattsy

Slattsy wrote: »

Really fancy Rolling Aces today in the RP chase at Kempton.
His form is rock solid.

While looking through the form of his Newbury win, I noticed that 6 horses behind him have come out and won since.
The horse that was second that day was Merry King who was only beaten a nose to Connington Brook in the Tommy Whittle at Haydock. Serious pieces of form.
He also best Opening Batsman 11 lengths who reopposss today at Wincanton on his last run.
And before that he chased home Hadrians Approach in a beginners chase at Ascot. HA has gone on to fill the runner up spot behind classy types Dynaste and Unioniste.
Again great form.

The step up in trip will suit Rolling Aces down to the ground.
I am slightly concerned about the good ground as it'll be the quickest he's raced on but Nicholls seems confident he'll have no problems with it.

I'm expecting a very bold show today.

How did he turn that form around :-(

handsomecake

Slattsy wrote: »

How did he turn that form around :-(

i was on rolling aces too.

harry fry you bastard

SRFC

Hard luck lads great to see Fry get one over Nicholls.

Overthelast

handsomecake wrote: »

i was on rolling aces too.

harry fry you bastard

Same as. Had a double rolling onto the aces. Would have paid for dinner this evening.

Slattsy

Overthelast wrote: »

Same as. Had a double rolling onto the aces. Would have paid for dinner this evening.

I'm having lamb shank.
Would have been with champers as I had Irish Saint and Grandioso in a treble with Rolling Aces, aswell as doing him on his own!
Thought Christmas was coming early.

Geraghty rates this bumper horse highly in the last. Might double up with Milan Bound at Fairy house.

Overthelast

Slattsy wrote: »

I'm having lamb shank.
Would have been with champers as I had Irish Saint and Grandioso in a treble with Rolling Aces, aswell as doing him on his own!
Thought Christmas was coming early.

Geraghty rates this bumper horse highly in the last. Might double up with Milan Bound at Fairy house.

That was cruel Slattsy. I'll be ordering house salad for my main course this evening.

I'll have a crack at that bumper double, in the hope I can upgrade to a chicken Caesar later.

Overthelast

That Irish bumper off too early, cannot get down to bet.

droidman123

Slattsy wrote: »

I'm having lamb shank.
Would have been with champers as I had Irish Saint and Grandioso in a treble with Rolling Aces, aswell as doing him on his own!
Thought Christmas was coming early.

Geraghty rates this bumper horse highly in the last. Might double up with Milan Bound at Fairy house.

Its a snack box in the chipper for me,went in heavy on wyck hill:( that lamb shank sounds tasty...just saying

Slattsy

You're kidding me?

droidman123

Slattsy wrote: »

You're kidding me?

Lol yeah, but I did go heavy on wyck hill.its the pub for me tonight

Slattsy

I meant the bumper being off early.
Is my bet void??

hawkhead

Slattsy wrote: »

I meant the bumper being off early.
Is my bet void??

I don't think going off early voids your bet in Ireland

droidman123

Slattsy wrote: »

I meant the bumper being off early.
Is my bet void??

Isn't any race that goes off early null and void?

Overthelast

Slattsy wrote: »

I meant the bumper being off early.
Is my bet void??

No, your fine. I thought it would be on at 5pm or something. I was going to start up the car & head down to do it.

UrbanSea

Off at 4.20 according to irishracing