6N: Scotland v Ireland 24/02/2013; 14:00 [MOD WARNING POST 246 & 1020]

totallegend

SCOTLAND
Stuart Hogg, Sean Maitland, Sean Lamont, Matt Scott, Tim Visser, Ruaridh Jackson, Greig Laidlaw
Ryan Grant, Ross Ford, Geoff Cross, Richie Gray, Jim Hamilton, Robert Harley, Kelly Brown (captain), Johnnie Beattie
Reps: Dougie Hall, Jon Welsh, Moray Low, Alastair Kellock, David Denton, Henry Pyrgos, Duncan Weir, Max Evans

IRELAND
Rob Kearney, Craig Gilroy, Brian O’Driscoll, Luke Marshall, Keith Earls, Paddy Jackson, Conor Murray
Tom Court, Rory Best, Mike Ross, Donnacha Ryan, Donnacha O’Callaghan, Peter O’Mahony, Sean O’Brien, Jamie Heaslip (captain)
Reps: Sean Cronin, Dave Kilcoyne, Declan Fitzpatrick, Devin Toner, Ian Henderson, Eoin Reddan, Ronan O’Gara, Luke Fitzgerald

The bi-annual jaunt to the Scottish capital has rarely been anything more than a speed-bump in Ireland’s Six Nations campaigns; only once since the Five Nations became Six have Ireland lost at Murrayfield, a 32-10 trouncing in September 2001 which, in the final reckoning, deprived Warren Gatland’s Ireland of a Grand Slam.

But that doesn’t tell the full story; in the last three Six Nations games between these two sides at Murrayfield, the average margin of victory for Ireland has been three points. And of course, Ireland’s last ever game at their temporary home of Croke Park in March 2010 ended in defeat at the hands of the Scots.

So Ireland’s traditional role as hot favourites in this tie is perhaps not as well-founded as we’d like to think. Add to that the extensive injury list that Ireland have accumulated this season; Stephen Ferris, Paul O’Connell, Tommy Bowe, Gordon D’Arcy, Jonny Sexton and Simon Zebo. All first-choice players, all ruled out. The supporting cast haven’t fared much better either, with Mike McCarthy, Chris Henry and Richardt Strauss all ruled out as well while the likes of Luke Fitzgerald and Luke Marshall are very short on game time. And then there’s Cian Healy…

All of which means we’re presented with a very unfamiliar looking Irish line-up, possibly the least experienced side fielded in a meaningful test by Declan Kidney. So is this a cause for concern or a reason to crack open the champagne? Let’s look at the selection of the Irish team.

FRONT ROW:
Rory Best has been in the form of his life for the past 18 months and has emerged as a real contender for the Lions test jersey; a natural leader and a nailed-on starter. Mike Ross is simply the most valuable player in the team, while Tom Court makes a return from the international wilderness after some very impressive recent displays for Ulster. It’s a strong, experienced front-row that should be able to give Ireland a platform in the scrum. Kilcoyne and Cronin will provide real impact off the bench, but an early injury to Mike Ross will set alarm bells ringing; Declan Fitzpatrick only played 40 minutes against Zebre on Friday which won’t have allayed concerns over his lack of game time.

SECOND ROW:
An injury-enforced partnership of Ryan and O’Callaghan should be no cause for concern while Devin Toner will be hoping to make his Six Nations debut and win his first cap in two and a half years.

BACK ROW:
In the absence of Ferris and Henry, the back-row of O’Mahony, O’Brien and Heaslip picks itself. O’Mahony and O’Brien have been two of Ireland’s best performers this season as they have begun to establish themselves in the 6 and 7 jerseys, but all the focus this weekend will be on Jamie Heaslip. He came in for heavy criticism after a poor personal display against England but it is his suitability for the captaincy that has generated most debate. His brightly-coloured boots and his prominently displayed Beats headphones have drawn unfavourable remarks from some of the more traditional elements within the game; he needs a big performance and a big show of leadership on Sunday to silence his critics. Ian Henderson provides a great option off the bench.

HALF-BACK:
This season has Conor Murray grow into the scrum-half that Kidney had so clearly been hoping he would be since September 2011. The speed of his service has improved and the aimless box-kicking has been reduced so Ireland will be hoping for an assured game from Murray to settle the man outside him.
Paddy Jackson makes his international debut after a week of stormy debate about the out-half position. There’s no doubting Jackson’s ability; the only question is whether he has the experience and big-game temperament to impose himself on a game that isn’t going his way. It’s a massive call from Kidney and one that went against every assumption that fans and media analysts had made about the coach. All eyes will be on Jackson come 3pm Sunday.

OUTSIDE BACKS:
Most Irish fans will have breathed a sigh of relief that Kidney has resisted the temptation to go with the Earls-O’Driscoll centre partnership and instead, we have a second debutant in the form of Luke Marshall. In many ways, the selection of Marshall is even more of a departure from Kidney’s usual selection policies than Jackson; Marshall has yet to start a Heineken Cup match, limited to ten-minute cameos as Paddy Wallace refuses to loosen his grip on the Ulster 12 jersey. That said, Marshall has the ability, confidence and physical presence to become a top-class inside-centre.

Craig Gilroy will be hoping to see more of the ball on Sunday than he did against England and to be given a chance to run at the defence. Rob Kearney will want to put in a decent showing against one of his main rivals for the Lions tour, Stuart Hogg. Indeed, the back three of Hogg, Visser and Maitland could well be one of the few areas of the pitch in which Scotland have the edge on Ireland.

So what can Scotland bring to the table? Throughout their recent history, the Scots have struggled to produce international-quality players in sufficient numbers. One area in which this has not been the case is the back-row and the current trio of Rob Harley, Kelly Brown and Johnny Beattie is no exception. They’ll be excited about the prospect of putting Jackson under pressure and forcing errors. Brown in particular has been very successful at the breakdown this season and will look to continue that; Ireland have been leaking penalties as ball-carriers have become isolated so this needs to be cut out.

Scotland’s possible weak link, as it has been for many years, is the half-back pairing of Greg Laidlaw and Ruairidh Jackson. Laidlaw is showing signs of growing into the 9 jersey now that the experiment at out-half seems to be over (the Round 1 game against England was his 11th start for Scotland but his first at scrum-half), but Jackson has yet to deliver on his early promise and has not been able to get the Scottish backs firing. While Scotland have scored six tries in two matches so far, most of these have been long-range scores coming from turnovers or intercepts; if Ireland can keep the mistakes to a minimum, Scotland will struggle to create opportunities.

Wayne Barnes is the referee for Sunday; often accused of favouring the home team, Barnes found himself dropped from the IRB Elite Panel last season after his handling of the Ireland v Wales game at the Aviva but he’s a good referee and is no cause for concern for Ireland.

So how is the game likely to pan out?
Looking at the respective line-ups, Ireland has the edge on paper, even allowing for their extensive injury list. The only fly in the ointment is the disjointed preparation leading up to this match. Ten players from the 23 were trotted out for their provinces in the Rabo league over the weekend to get badly-needed game; hardly ideal preparations but the Irish management will hope that it stands to them.

A huge amount is going to depend on the ability of the forwards to win the arm-wrestle up front. Murray and Jackson are not the half-back pairing to play behind a beaten pack; they need front-foot ball. The introduction of O’Callaghan for McCarthy means that the pack will not lack ballast but with Gray and Hamilton in the second-row, the Scots will look to target the Irish line-out which has struggled to secure its own ball consistently this season.

If the backs can get quality service, there is enough footballing ability to open up the Scots. The weather forecast is for a dry, cloudy day without much wind so hopefully a good game lies in prospect.

Ireland to win by 5-10 points.

What are the odds?
Scotland 6/5
Ireland 4/6
Draw 22/1
(paddypower.com)

Interestingly, the handicap has come down from Scotland +3 earlier in the week to Scotland +2 today…

Rather worryingly for the state of the game in Scotland, tickets for this tie are still available…

COME ON IRELAND!!!

jimmymcelroy

Why is Toner on the bench? I know he's tall if the Irish lineout is in trouble but he offers nothing around the pitch.

Would have been better with:
19. Henderson
20. O'Donnell

opinionatedfan

Draw

jimmymcelroy wrote: »

Why is Toner on the bench? I know he's tall if the Irish lineout is in trouble but he offers nothing around the pitch.

Would have been better with:
19. Henderson
20. O'Donnell

O'Donnell hasn't shown himself to be anything special.

LeeroyJones

Luke Marshall (Re playing with BOD)
"Yeah, I've been watching him since I was 9".................... feeling old!

ScissorPaperRock

I'm glad Court has gotten straight into a starting position. He deserves it.

Pudsy33

I beleive in PJ

jimmymcelroy

opinionatedfan wrote: »

O'Donnell hasn't shown himself to be anything special.

and Devin Toner has???

The back row cover is thin on the ground at this stage, it would be a toss up between O'Donnell/Ruddock or Coughlan I don't think it would make a big difference

P_1

Grand job, now can we please have Madigan back at Leinster?

Grimebox

I didn't realise debutants had to sing a song. That's hilarious.

Great to see Fitzgerald back in the squad. Hopefully he can get a chance to play like he has been doing for Leinster. I don't fully understand the inclusion of Toner. I never really rated him all that much but who could possibly replace him?

Kayless

Kearney, Gilroy, O’Driscoll, Marshall, Earls, Jackson, Murray, Court, Best, Ross, Ryan, O’Callaghan, O’Mahony, O’Brien, Heaslip (Capt).

5 Leinster
5 Ulster
5 Munster

Most even Irish team ever?

sydthebeat

jimmymcelroy wrote: »

Why is Toner on the bench? I know he's tall if the Irish lineout is in trouble but he offers nothing around the pitch.

Would have been better with:
19. Henderson
20. O'Donnell

ridiculously uninformed comment.

Toner was one of leinsters best players last year.
Anyone who regularly watches him will see how good he has gotten with his positioning, his ball handling especially, and his work rate.

Of the options available Toner definitely deserves his spot.

tolosenc

Draw

jimmymcelroy wrote: »

Why is Toner on the bench? I know he's tall if the Irish lineout is in trouble but he offers nothing around the pitch.

Would have been better with:
19. Henderson
20. O'Donnell

While I wouldn't have Toner there either, O'Donnell would have been a joke of a decision. Ruddock is miles better.

.ak wrote: »

... I was wondering how long it'd take you to work in a Cartman quote to a rugby post.

Screw you, I'm going home...

awec

sydthebeat wrote: »

ridiculously uninformed comment.

Toner was one of leinsters best players last year.
Anyone who regularly watches him will see how good he has gotten with his positioning, his ball handling especially, and his work rate.

Of the options available Toner definitely deserves his spot.

Not sure about that.

Brewster

Thrilled for the two young lads.. They will make mistakes and people need to accept this, but it's a damn sight better than watching ROG fumble around pitch. Hopefully 'wee Nev' will look out for his Ulster teammates on Sunday. He will be very proud of them.

tolosenc

Draw

P_1 wrote: »

Grand job, now can we please have Madigan back at Leinster?

And Ferg.

CIARAN_BOYLE

sydthebeat wrote: »

ridiculously uninformed comment.

Toner was one of leinsters best players last year.
Anyone who regularly watches him will see how good he has gotten with his positioning, his ball handling especially, and his work rate.

Of the options available Toner definitely deserves his spot.

Personally I would have Stevenson in the lock bench spot.

jamiedav2011

awec wrote: »

Not sure about that.

He certainly was, had some great games.

tolosenc

Draw

awec wrote: »

Not sure about that.

He was nowhere near it, but he did have a really good season last year. That said, he got a lot of games during our "Harlem Globetrotters" phase, which made everyone on the team look like superstars. Performances haven't been as good this year, though.

thomond2006

Ireland by >7 points

9 Leinster
7 Munster
7 Ulster

if you include the replacements

Grimebox

Kayless wrote: »

Kearney, Gilroy, O’Driscoll, Marshall, Earls, Jackson, Murray, Court, Best, Ross, Ryan, O’Callaghan, O’Mahony, O’Brien, Heaslip (Capt).

5 Leinster
5 Ulster
5 Munster

Most even Irish team ever?

Kidney's anti-connacht bias shining through again

Brewster

After being down after England game, the 6.40am Sunday flight to Edinburgh seems less of a concern now with that positive team announcement!

tolosenc

Draw

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Personally I would have Stevenson in the lock bench spot.

Stevenson was awful in the Wolfhounds game, though. Equally culpable as, if not more so than, Bent for the scrum debacle.

ScissorPaperRock

Grimebox wrote: »

Kidney's anti-connacht bias shining through again

???

Which Connacht players should be in? And ahead of who?

Artful_Badger

sydthebeat wrote: »

ridiculously uninformed comment.

Toner was one of leinsters best players last year.
Anyone who regularly watches him will see how good he has gotten with his positioning, his ball handling especially, and his work rate.

Of the options available Toner definitely deserves his spot.

Last year he had a couple great breaks which gave people the impression he was having a stormer of a season, he wasnt. He didnt have a bad season but he wasnt anywhere near the top players.

Overall around the pitch he's average in all aspects of his game, those breaks last year were abnormalities in his game not the standard.

CatFromHue

Grimebox wrote: »

Kidney's anti-connacht bias shining through again

Who from Connacht should be in the team/23?

McCarthy is injured, McSharry would have been in the training squad but he's injured, Henshaw was in the training squad but isn't good enough to start.....?

ssaye

Grimebox wrote: »

Kidney's anti-connacht bias shining through again

Who would you have so?

durkadurka

Super write up there totallegend

Teferi

Has Paddy Jackson been injured for the last 3 weeks? Someone mentioned in another thread somewhere.

CoDy1

Ireland by >7 points

ScissorPaperRoc wrote: »

???

Which Connacht players should be in? And ahead of who?

CatFromHue wrote: »

Who from Connacht should be in the team/23?

McCarthy is injured, McSharry would have been in the training squad but he's injured, Henshaw was in the training squad but isn't good enough to start.....?

ssaye wrote: »

Who would you have so?

Think Grimebox forgot the ':pac:' at the end of his post.

ssaye

ssaye wrote: »

Who would you have so?

I presume he was joking about people moaning about Kidney preferring Munster players over Leinster players.

awec

Teferi wrote: »

Has Paddy Jackson been injured for the last 3 weeks? Someone mentioned in another thread somewhere.

He was injured I think but he played for Ulster at the weekend.

.ak

awec wrote: »

Not sure about that.

In fairness he did pick up the Player of the Month award for two months in a row, he really was in great form last season. No where near best Leinster player tho.

This year he's been a bit meh, especially in the tight.

little173

I like this team - the 2 young lads will bring in some good energy to the place.

Putting Marshall in at 12 makes sense in that he plays in that position no.1, and arent asking someone to come in and play out of position. He is a big solid player up against some big scots backs who generally run hard and straight and he will match them physically.

I think PJ is solid enough and I did like the way he showed when coming on vs Castres, he has a good passing game and is cool under pressure. A bit like a Farrell without the experience. In the HEC final Ulster were over powered early on which is not going to happen here so he can find his feet, keep it simple and use his passing skills to unleash the wide men.

Need a big game from our backrow carriers to get on the front foot.

awec

I am actually excited about this game now.

Kayless

Grimebox wrote: »

Kidney's anti-connacht bias shining through again

Connacht have some great young talent coming through their ranks at the moment, I would expect a least 4 of them to make the Irish squad for the next 6 nations.

The important thing for me is the amount of depth Ireland has/will have at its disposal once we get all of our injured players back, it's actually quite impressive. With a good tactical coach Ireland could do very well in the next world cup.

pc7

Great review, really needed that to get the spirits up! Love the photo too. Roll on hitting Edinburgh should be a cracking weekend!

Leslie91

I'm happy with the starting 15 all things considered. Like a few I'd like to have seen maybe Ruddock on the bench for Toner and Henderson to cover the second row or 6. All in all though one cannot be disappointed at him going for Jackson and Marshall. Hoping the young lads go out and do him proud now, we owe the Scots a thumping too. I wanna see Heaslip, SOB and POM running over lads.

Grimebox

CoDy1 wrote: »

Think Grimebox forgot the ':pac:' at the end of his post.

Whoa sorry guys I was being completely sarcastic. Didn't mean to create this sh!t storm. I don't buy into the whole provincial bias thing whatsoever anyway

totallegend

Ireland by >7 points

awec wrote: »

I am actually excited about this game now.

Yeah, me too. Not particularly confident but either way it will be interesting and we'll have plenty to talk about on Monday.

sydthebeat

last season was toners best, where he carried the form from the previous Christmas onward.

fair enough of you disagree, but i definitely think he deserves his spot on the bench and i hope he gets some decent game time.

ScissorPaperRock

I have to say, this lineup should make for an exciting game on Sunday. Certainly more exciting than the prospect of ROG at 10 and Earls/BOD at 12.

ssaye

#jacksonout












:pac: Too soon,


Delighted for the new lads, if we can keep error count down low and hold the bloody ball, we should have enough to win it.

Ireland by 5-10

CoDy1

Ireland by >7 points

Honestly would have prefered Madigan instead of Jackson but his time will come.

Heres hoping PJ has a stormer.

stephen_n

Excellent writeup

Every now and then Kidney can really surprise you, given the injuries and the toss up between Madigan/Jackson being 50/50 I think he actually picked the best team he could have.

Big performances will be required by both Heaslip and Murray after the last outing, sunny day could be a really fast and open game, if both teams can avoid the errors they have been guilty of it could be a really good game.

sydthebeat

Add to that the extensive injury list that Ireland have accumulated this season; Stephen Ferris, Paul O’Connell, Tommy Bowe, Gordon D’Arcy, Jonny Sexton, Simon Zebo and Donnacha Ryan. All first-choice players, all ruled out.

should there be a little edit in the OP?

68 lost souls

Ireland by >7 points

A few reasons why I'm happy PJ is in there.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=sUwUmM-ZkbA#t=128s

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RjZAUeqv7RU (second drop goal by Luke McGrath is also spectacular)

In terms of the music videos however I think ROG wins

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C3wkqT3bQrI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=inoy6eoPvdU

SebBerkovich

Ireland by >7 points

Next year i hope to see the inaugural The Six Nations Song Contest

I'd say Wales would be favorites.

thomond2006

Ireland by >7 points

ROG, above Eurovision standard...


that's not saying much tbf

buck65

Great to see Jackson at 10, Marshall at 12 is the best choice, I've liked the look of him for the past 2 seasons. Thought he did well against Fiji too.
Donncha Ryan's dodgy back is the only reason I can see for Toner being anywhere near the squad.
Hard to see O Gara getting another central contract after this season, Penney might now be allowed to play Keatley now when it matters.

boynesider

I'm fairly happy with this team. was hoping to see Kilcoyne get his chance against a fairly average TH, but Court could give us an advantage at the scrum which could take a lot of pressure off the young lads behind.

PJ hasn't been in great form, but ironically enough I would fancy him to play better without having Pienaar beside him taking on most of the responsibilities. That scenario can't be great for a 10's confidence so maybe the extra playmaking duties could bring out the best in him. Murray has some Pienaar like qualities but he is nowhere near that level yet.

Marshall is a class act and i just hope he gets plenty of front foot ball to work with. He also has the ability to step in as another first receiver and mix things up a bit when needs be, a tactic which I think is very undervalued in international rugby.

Something tells me that Heaslip is going to have big game. The best players all seem to be able to bounce back when they need to, and he certainly needs to or he simply won't make the Lions tour on current form.

petebricquette

Really excited about this line-up. I think Marshall's going to have a great time running a few lines off BOD ala Jamie Roberts on the 2009 Lions tour. Out of interest, why did Kidney think Court wasn't good enough to bench for Healy and now he starts him ahead of Kilcoyne? It doesn't make any sense.