Have we entered the era of one club leagues?

mike65

Manchester Utd
Bayern Munich
Celtic
Barcelona
Paris St Germain
Juventus

are all dead certs or very short odds on favourites to win their respective leagues this season. In Spain and Germany (and Scotland for different reasons) its hard to imagine anyone challenging next season, in the Prem City and Chelsea clearly need to sort themselves out to have a chance and I wouldn't bet on either doing so. PSG have the whip hand in France being by far and away the best resourced. Italy is more open Juventus have thrown some points away against weak opposition this season but are still 5 points clear. They will only get stronger in the summer while the two Milan clubs toil somewhat.

Is everyone else playing for second?

Insect Overlord

One season does not constitute an "era".

/thread



Sorry!

Leftist

mike65 wrote: »

Manchester Utd
Bayern Munich
Celtic
Barcelona
Paris St Germain
Juventus

are all dead certs or very short odds on favourites to win their respective leagues this season. In Spain and Germany (and Scotland for different reasons) its hard to imagine anyone challenging next season, in the Prem City and Chelsea clearly need to sort themselves out to have a chance and I wouldn't bet on either doing so. PSG have the whip hand in France being by far and away the best resourced. Italy is more open Juventus have thrown some points away against weak opposition this season but are still 5 points clear. They will only get stronger in the summer while the two Milan clubs toil somewhat.

Is everyone else playing for second?

an era?

out of those six teams, four didn't win their leagues last year.

duffman13

Barcelona, Bayern, Man Utd and PSG all didnt win there leagues last year. Jumping the gun a bit

carlop

mike65 wrote: »

Manchester Utd
Bayern Munich
Celtic
Barcelona
Paris St Germain
Juventus

are all dead certs or very short odds on favourites to win their respective leagues this season. In Spain and Germany (and Scotland for different reasons) its hard to imagine anyone challenging next season, in the Prem City and Chelsea clearly need to sort themselves out to have a chance and I wouldn't bet on either doing so. PSG have the whip hand in France being by far and away the best resourced. Italy is more open Juventus have thrown some points away against weak opposition this season but are still 5 points clear. They will only get stronger in the summer while the two Milan clubs toil somewhat.

Is everyone else playing for second?

Celtic aren't really that relevant to the discussion, but of the ones you mention they are the only ones who are more or less certain to win their league next season.

PSG are an anomaly of sorts, as they are the richest club in Europe playing in the 5th best league. However, they still haven't won a league title for a number of years.

In Spain, Real Madrid will most certainly be there or thereabouts.

I don't know if United will start next season as favourites.

If the bookies priced up a match bet between the two Milan clubs on one side and Juve on the other, I think Juve would have the longer price.

I suppose based on their form this year and their financial strength compared to the rest, Bayern could well be entering into a period of domination.

mike65

C'mon folks put some effort into this will ya?

Do you see City working out how to spend money better and get Mancini to stop being so conservative? Chelsea need to stop sacking managers and buy some talent at the back, no one is going to challenge Bayern or Barca, Rangers cannot challenge Celtic, neither Milan club can match Juve for spending and coherent management and development, PSG is obvious - who will out play and out spend them? No one. They will be like Lyon a decade ago. This is the start, bookmark this thread.

Smithwicks Man

And Juventus were only 3 points clear at the top of the league before yesterday? Just because the premiership's deteriorated to an extent and an average United team can walk away with it doesn't mean the rest of the world is the same!

missingtime

Smithwicks Man wrote: »

And Juventus were only 3 points clear at the top of the league before yesterday? Just because the premiership's deteriorated to an extent and an average United team can walk away with it doesn't mean the rest of the world is the same!

There is nothing average about that Utd team.

Insect Overlord

Smithwicks Man wrote: »

And Juventus were only 3 points clear at the top of the league before yesterday? Just because the premiership's deteriorated to an extent and an average United team can walk away with it doesn't mean the rest of the world is the same!

Average? Are you and your "brother" getting confused about your accounts again?

Smithwicks Man

mike65 wrote: »

C'mon folks put some effort into this will ya?

Do you see City working out how to spend money better and get Mancini to stop being so conservative? Chelsea need to stop sacking managers and buy some talent at the back, no one is going to challenge Bayern or Barca, Rangers cannot challenge Celtic, neither Milan club can match Juve for spending and coherent management and development, PSG is obvious - who will out play and out spend them? No one. They will be like Lyon a decade ago. This is the start, bookmark this thread.

Well it'd be hard for Rangers to challenge when they're 3 divisions below Celtic :pac: . And the second bold part is just wrong imo. If you excluded the Serie A from this you might have had a point but Milan have decent spending power (Balotelli) and good coherent management and excellent development prospects and will be much stronger next year. And you haven't even mentioned Napoli?

PSG will be the cause of their own downfall imo if FFP is properly regulated

Neil3030

Well he did ask if we have entered an era, in fairness.

And to that I would say... quite possibly. Hard to see where any real challenges will come from to the listed teams in their respective leagues in coming years.

The situation in Scotland is cut and dried.

In Spain, maybe an injury to Messi might halt Barcelona's gallop, somewhat, other than that I think they could be good for at least the next 2-3 La Ligas. Keep in mind too, the Mourinho hangover will affect Madrid starting next season.

As for the EPL, maybe City will change their manager and strengthen the squad this Summer. No idea what will become of Chelsea but I suppose you can't really rule them out. Also, RVP does pick up injuries and his goals are really the difference for Utd at the moment.

Could Dortmund pose a realistic challenge in Germany?

Don't really know much about the French league.

Juve will dominate Italy for some time to come. Their match-day revenues really are proving the difference maker, it would appear.

Smithwicks Man

Insect Overlord wrote: »

Average? Are you and your "brother" getting confused about your accounts again?

Hahaha no :pac: .. Well they're not average really but compared to previous years they're not world beaters either is what I meant to say? Average was the wrong word but they shouldn't be 12 points clear at the top of the table if there was anyone decent to challenge them.

I suppose that's a reflection on the rest of the teams being bad really!

I recant! I recant! :pac:

GavRedKing

mike65 wrote: »

C'mon folks put some effort into this will ya?

Do you see City working out how to spend money better and get Mancini to stop being so conservative? Chelsea need to stop sacking managers and buy some talent at the back, no one is going to challenge Bayern or Barca, Rangers cannot challenge Celtic, neither Milan club can match Juve for spending and coherent management and development, PSG is obvious - who will out play and out spend them? No one. They will be like Lyon a decade ago. This is the start, bookmark this thread.

Bookmarked. :pac:

duffman13

mike65 wrote: »

C'mon folks put some effort into this will ya?

Do you see City working out how to spend money better and get Mancini to stop being so conservative? Chelsea need to stop sacking managers and buy some talent at the back, no one is going to challenge Bayern or Barca, Rangers cannot challenge Celtic, neither Milan club can match Juve for spending and coherent management and development, PSG is obvious - who will out play and out spend them? No one. They will be like Lyon a decade ago. This is the start, bookmark this thread.

City spent money last summer on bad home grown english players. Wont happen again, Chelsea and City probably have stronger squads than United this season. Real Madrid have had a bad season doesnt mean Barca will walk the title next season. Same goes for Dortmund. France has almost always been a one club league with Lyon in the last decade. I think Juve should be comfortable for a the next couple of seasons but all Italian clubs are showing a bit of prudence and that league will be really competitive over the next five years/

iDave

Yeah Real Madrid are has beens alright :rolleyes:

Pinturicchio

I'd say Serie A is more of a two team league. Napoli will push Juve all the way.

Neil3030

Are Juve still the only club in Italy to own their own stadium.

This will help.

A lot.

BOHtox

mike65 wrote: »

Manchester Utd
Bayern Munich
Celtic
Barcelona
Paris St Germain
Juventus

are all dead certs or very short odds on favourites to win their respective leagues this season. In Spain and Germany (and Scotland for different reasons) its hard to imagine anyone challenging next season, in the Prem City and Chelsea clearly need to sort themselves out to have a chance and I wouldn't bet on either doing so. PSG have the whip hand in France being by far and away the best resourced. Italy is more open Juventus have thrown some points away against weak opposition this season but are still 5 points clear. They will only get stronger in the summer while the two Milan clubs toil somewhat.

Is everyone else playing for second?

Melion

Neil3030 wrote: »

Well he did ask if we have entered an era, in fairness.

And to that I would say... quite possibly. Hard to see where any real challenges will come from to the listed teams in their respective leagues in coming years.

The situation in Scotland is cut and dried.

In Spain, maybe an injury to Messi might halt Barcelona's gallop, somewhat, other than that I think they could be good for at least the next 2-3 La Ligas. Keep in mind too, the Mourinho hangover will affect Madrid starting next season.
Real won their league last year, why are Barca now all of a sudden, good for the next 2-3 years?

As for the EPL, maybe City will change their manager and strengthen the squad this Summer. No idea what will become of Chelsea but I suppose you can't really rule them out. Also, RVP does pick up injuries and his goals are really the difference for Utd at the moment.
City will spend big and spend much wiser this summer, United IMO will need to do the same

Could Dortmund pose a realistic challenge in Germany?
Like they have done for the last 2 seasons?

Don't really know much about the French league.
PSG havent won their league since 1994, they are still very much a group of individuals rather than a "team"

Juve will dominate Italy for some time to come. Their match-day revenues really are proving the difference maker, it would appear.

I really wonder do some people even watch football.

Oat23

Neil3030 wrote: »

And to that I would say... quite possibly. Hard to see where any real challenges will come from to the listed teams in their respective leagues in coming years.



Could Dortmund pose a realistic challenge in Germany?

History shows that someone will. Bayern do have dominating spells sometimes, but unlike other leagues, it isn't one or two other challengers that occasionally take the title from them. In the past 10 years Bayern have won the title 5 times and there have been 4 other winners, so someone will step up and challenge them.

Dortmund are the main threat obviously, they have a great young team, and even if they sell some of their stars they will have plenty of money to replace them as they have done so far (Sahin to Gündogan, Kagawa to Reus etc.). They have sacrificed the league this season but have done exceptionally well in Europe. All 4 of their losses in the league have come directly before or after a CL game which shows this.

There is also Leverkusen who are usually somewhere around the top (but they have the nickname Neverkusen for a reason I suppose). Schalke, Bremen and potentially HSV in the future.

Pinturicchio

Neil3030 wrote: »

Are Juve still the only club in Italy to own their own stadium.

This will help.

A lot.

They're the only club in Serie A to, yeah. A lot of the other clubs have plans to build stadiums now.

mitosis

Smithwicks Man wrote: »

Hahaha no :pac: .. Well they're not average really but compared to previous years they're not world beaters either is what I meant to say? Average was the wrong word but they shouldn't be 12 points clear at the top of the table if there was anyone decent to challenge them.

I suppose that's a reflection on the rest of the teams being bad really!

I recant! I recant! :pac:

Interesting to see how the team 12 points clear of EPL does against the team 16 points adrift in Spain.

Will I Amnt

Lots of people talking about how poor the standard is in the EPL. I'd argue the opposite.
There's not that many easy away games in the league anymore.
The likes of Southampton, QPR, Norwich, Stoke, Swansea, Wigan, West Brom, Reading and Fulham among others are all causing upsets and are playing a far nicer style of football than we have seen down the years from teams at the wrong end of the table (Stoke excluded obviously)
I don't see many of them as guaranteed 3 points.

Then you have Spurs, Newcastle and Everton who on their day can destroy any team in the league. Liverpool can give the bigger teams a lot of trouble too on their day.
It's definitely a stronger league than last season imo.

Melion

cambo2008 wrote: »

Lots of people talking about how poor the standard is in the EPL. I'd argue the opposite.
There's not that many easy away games in the league anymore.
The likes of Southampton, QPR, Norwich, Stoke, Swansea, Wigan, West Brom, Reading and Fulham among others are all causing upsets and are playing a far nicer style of football than we have seen down the years from teams at the wrong end of the table (Stoke excluded obviously)
I don't see many of them as guaranteed 3 points.

Then you have Spurs, Newcastle and Everton who on their day can destroy any team in the league. Liverpool can give the bigger teams a lot of trouble too on their day.
It's definitely a stronger league than last season imo.

Id agree with this.

I really dont think any match is a guaranteed 3 points anymore unless you have a situation like next weekend when Swansea players wont want to risk injury ahead of their cup final so will most likely not push themselves too hard.

Morzadec

I think it's been said already, but...

EPL - United will always be up there but expect City to strengthen hugely in the summer. Chelsea could be a threat if they sign the right players and get in a decent manager. Also a couple of seasons is a long time in football. You can never be positive about ruling out some of the Champions League contending teams.

Ligue 1 - PSG have the financial superiority to dominate the league. However it's far from certain how long they will continue to invest, and really from what I've heard Ibrahimovic is the only reason they're where they are. It's possible they will dominate for a while, though victory this season is far from a certainty yet.

La Liga - This Barca team is ridiculously good but you can never rule out a team with the quality, prestige and ability to sign the best players in the world like Real Madrid. For a while I thought Barca would just crush this league every year, but last year proved me wrong.

Bundesliga - Bayern have flattered to deceive before. They looked like they would be shoe-ins for the title the year after they lost in the Champions League final to Inter, but often the Bundesliga throws up surprises. This, for me, is one prediction that could come through. They have an awful lot of quality at the moment, and with Guardiola and more top players coming in they could come into a class of their own soon. This year they've conceded 7 goals in 21 games. An incredible record. They are great value at 13/2 for the Champions League in my opinion.

Serie A - don't know an awful lot about this league but if Napoli beat Juventus in a couple of weeks (they're at home) they'll cut the gap to 2 points. There's an awful long way to go in this league, especially with Juve maybe being distracted by Champions League football. Too many big clubs in Italy to put Juve as shoe-ins next season.


It's incredibly rare that the same teams across all 5 leagues retain their league across one year, let alone enough years to constitute an 'era'. It's possible you may be proven right in the Bundesliga and Ligue 1 imo, but the other leagues will always have big teams and big money to make for competitive title races.

Giggsy11

duffman13 wrote: »

City spent money last summer on bad home grown english players. Wont happen again, Chelsea and City probably have stronger squads than United this season. Real Madrid have had a bad season doesnt mean Barca will walk the title next season. Same goes for Dortmund. France has almost always been a one club league with Lyon in the last decade. I think Juve should be comfortable for a the next couple of seasons but all Italian clubs are showing a bit of prudence and that league will be really competitive over the next five years/

No. You can argue about first 11 but United have better squad and that's one of the main reason why United cope with so many injuries.

Morzadec

Melion wrote: »

Id agree with this.

I really dont think any match is a guaranteed 3 points anymore unless you have a situation like next weekend when Swansea players wont want to risk injury ahead of their cup final so will most likely not push themselves too hard.

As a Liverpool fan I've stopped ever thinking anything is a guaranteed 3 points!
Could be some players looking to give Laudrup a selection headache.

Or they could go for a 'park the bus' strategy that we've seen can be very effective against Liverpool at times.

v3ttel

mitosis wrote: »

Interesting to see how the team 12 points clear of EPL does against the team 16 points adrift in Spain.

La Liga champions vs EPL runners up, if you want to slice and dice that way, depending on your agenda.

If you are suggesting that the EPL is a lot weaker than La Liga solely on the basis that Real Madrid might beat United in the CL, then that is retarded imho.

The game against Real Madrid becomes even more difficult because they want to win the Champions League at all costs now that La Liga is cleary well beyond them. They have a mountain to climb to go to the Camp Nou to progress in the Copa Del Rey, so it's CL or bust for them.

roanoke

I think what you're seeing there is "one team seasons", not a "one team era". It's worth noting that already more than half the premier league seasons have been won by six points or more (7 seasons were won by 9pts or more and ManU even won 99-00 season by 18pts!). Whilst most of the seasons were not that close the important thing was that there was at least some variety to the teams who were winning it. Not as much as I'd reckon is healthy, but still not just the same team year after year.

When/if we ever to the stage where teams in all the main leagues can win 9 or 10 titles in a row without anyone offering up much of a challenge (akin to how Rangers won 9 titles between 1989-97 by an average margin of 10 (adjusted) points, or how Rosenberg won 13 titles between 1992-04 by an average of 7.5 points) then the game really will be in the era of one club leagues.

Leftist

German football will never be a one team league.

England will always offer up a challenger to United. Even if the challenger isn't great, the league is rarely over before May.

Corholio

cambo2008 wrote: »

Lots of people talking about how poor the standard is in the EPL. I'd argue the opposite.
There's not that many easy away games in the league anymore.
The likes of Southampton, QPR, Norwich, Stoke, Swansea, Wigan, West Brom, Reading and Fulham among others are all causing upsets and are playing a far nicer style of football than we have seen down the years from teams at the wrong end of the table (Stoke excluded obviously)
I don't see many of them as guaranteed 3 points.

Then you have Spurs, Newcastle and Everton who on their day can destroy any team in the league. Liverpool can give the bigger teams a lot of trouble too on their day.
It's definitely a stronger league than last season imo.

It's closer amongst the teams below the top 2 collectively, but that doesn't make it a stronger league. All teams improving hugely or becoming crap can denote this. While its not either, i feel the league has dropped in quality.

Another reason its a poorer league is, ironically, because its richer. Amongst most clubs now its simply a scramble to stay in the top league, its a league within a league now and its affected the standard.

mitosis

Rooney10 wrote: »

La Liga champions vs EPL runners up, if you want to slice and dice that way, depending on your agenda.

.

My agenda? Rooney10?

Why would you compare them based on their positions a year ago? I still think it may tell an interesting story.

Andersonisgod

Ye the top league's in Europe have been rather noncompetitive this year but to say it will be like this on a regular basis is crazy. The sheer amount of money at the disposal of Real Madrid, Man City and Chelsea means that they simply cant be written off, all 3 clubs need to get themselves back into order and at least 2 need to find new managers for next season but with the right appointments and a spot of strengthening any of them could win their domestic league. It is also foolish to write off Borussia Dortmund in the German league as it is foolish to write off AC Milan or Inter in the Italian league.

It's also far from a guarantee that any of those clubs leading their domestic leagues will win the Champions League, while Barcelona would be my (and most other people's pick) I wouldn't be surprised if Real Madrid were to win it.

v3ttel

mitosis wrote: »

My agenda? Rooney10?

Thanks for noticing my username. Hows the process by which a eukaryotic cell separates the chromosomes in its cell nucleus into two identical sets, in two separate nuclei, thing going for you? :pac:

Seriously though, I was merely pointing out the fact that someone can slice it whatever way they like. Apologies if it seemed otherwise.

mitosis wrote: »

Interesting to see how the team 12 points clear of EPL does against the team 16 points adrift in Spain.

Again, IMHO, the game vs Madrid is even trickier now that they've zero chance of retaining the league.

The fact that its arguably two of the strongest sides in the world is what makes the game interesting, rather than relative league position.

mitosis

Rooney10 wrote: »

Thanks for noticing my username. Hows the process by which a eukaryotic cell separates the chromosomes in its cell nucleus into two identical sets, in two separate nuclei, thing going for you? :pac:

.

The weather isn't conducive at the moment :pac:

mike65

bump.

mike65 wrote: »

Manchester Utd
Bayern Munich -
Celtic
Barcelona
Paris St Germain
Juventus

are all dead certs or very short odds on favourites to win their respective leagues this season. In Spain and Germany (and Scotland for different reasons) its hard to imagine anyone challenging next season, in the Prem City and Chelsea clearly need to sort themselves out to have a chance and I wouldn't bet on either doing so. PSG have the whip hand in France being by far and away the best resourced. Italy is more open Juventus have thrown some points away against weak opposition this season but are still 5 points clear. They will only get stronger in the summer while the two Milan clubs toil somewhat.

Is everyone else playing for second?

Manchester Utd - won league with 4 games to spare
Bayern Munich - won league with 6 games to spare
Celtic - won league with 4 games to spare
Barcelona -
Paris St Germain -
Juventus - won league with 3 games to spare

A game or two to make absolutely sure for Barca and PSG.

CSF

mike65 wrote: »

bump.



Manchester Utd - won league with 4 games to spare
Bayern Munich - won league with 6 games to spare
Celtic - won league with 4 games to spare
Barcelona -
Paris St Germain -
Juventus - won league with 3 games to spare

A game or two to make absolutely sure for Barca and PSG.

4 of the 6 didn't win their league last season, lets see what happens over the next 3/4 seasons before jumping to conclusions

mike65

Grand I 'll bump this thread in 12 months and 24 and 36!

CSF

mike65 wrote: »

Grand I 'll bump this thread in 12 months and 24 and 36!

Better to just wait the 36;)
One season, or 2 or 3 (or probably 4) does not an era make.

EdenHazard

Monaco could challenge PSG, and the other big French teams will be there or there abouts, sure France went through that era with Lyon already.

mike65

Lyon were champions 7 years on the bounce.

Amirani

EdenHazard wrote: »

Monaco could challenge PSG, and the other big French teams will be there or there abouts, sure France went through that era with Lyon already.

Monaco are in Ligue 2. They will go up, but it's no forgone conclusion that they'll be challenging in Ligue 1 next year.

EdenHazard

They should, did you see how much they spent on Ocampos, not too shabby for a ligue 2 side on an unproven south american.

Amirani

EdenHazard wrote: »

They should, did you see how much they spent on Ocampos, not too shabby for a ligue 2 side on an unproven south american.

They've certainly got money. There's a lot of squad building to be done though. They can't really go signing 10 players when they're promoted and expect them to work together.

greendom

NiallSparky wrote: »

They've certainly got money. There's a lot of squad building to be done though. They can't really go signing 10 players when they're promoted and expect them to work together.

They have a major issue at the moment. The FFF are demanding that they either relocate to France or pay €200 million as a premium to continue to play in the principality, They are taking the issue to court but it's not looking too rosey atm

Amirani

greendom wrote: »

They have a major issue at the moment. The FFF are demanding that they either relocate to France or pay €200 million as a premium to continue to play in the principality, They are taking the issue to court but it's not looking too rosey atm

It absolutely should be the case. They have an unfair advantage at the moment.

LiamoSail

Manchester Utd - the likelihood is both city and Chelsea will spend big this summer, and with rumours of mourinho coming back, it'd be no surprise to see either Chelsea or city win the league. It wouldn't be the first time utd have won the league by a country mile, only to be runners up the following year

Bayern Munich - with Dortmund as strong as they are, there's going to be some level of competition there. Bayern are close enough to "the perfect season", so guadiola's going to be under pressure there trying to better the previous season. Just as Brian clough tried at Leeds, he may not be able to win more then last season, but he can try and win it better. Didn't really work out for clough though

Celtic - was always going to be a one horse race after the second horse got put down last year

Barcelona - season of transition perhaps. You can never discount real though. Could go either way


.[/QUOTE]

mike65

Bump for the end of season margins of the main leagues of interest across Europe

Bayern 25
Barca 15
Celtic 15
Olympiakos 15
PSG 12
Man Utd 11
Galatasaray 11
Juve 9
Ajax 7

120 points between them

Only Belgium, Russia and Portugal had a race.

mitosis

mike65 wrote: »

Bump for the end of season margins of the main leagues of interest across Europe

Bayern 25
Barca 15
Celtic 15
Olympiakos 15
PSG 12
Man Utd 11
Galatasaray 11
Juve 9
Ajax 7

120 points between them

Only Belgium, Russia and Portugal had a race.

How many will retain next season? Barca will be 2nd in Spain, PSG 2nd in France, Man U could be 3rd in England, Juventus 3rd in Italy.

Amirani

mitosis wrote: »

How many will retain next season? Barca will be 2nd in Spain, PSG 2nd in France, Man U could be 3rd in England, Juventus 3rd in Italy.

Some huge calls there. What are you basing those assumptions on? United are the only ones not to improve their squad.

For me Barca are still the best team in Spain, PSG the best in France and Juve best in Italy.

Liam O

mitosis wrote: »

How many will retain next season? Barca will be 2nd in Spain, PSG 2nd in France, Man U could be 3rd in England, Juventus 3rd in Italy.

I'd be willing to bet pretty much all of those will finish at least one higher than you have them there.