Arkle Trophy 2013

ft9

The head of the betting:
Simonsig 17/20 SportingBet
Overturn 5/1 Various
Arvika Ligeonniere 10/1 SportingBet
Fago 12/1 Boylesports
Captain Conan 12/1 PaddyPower
Oscars Well 25/1 SkyBet

I love this race, flat out for 2 miles over fences. Sprinter Sacre last year was just awesome

It looks to be all about Simonsig, who is too short for an antepost bet. He will surely be the price on the day. I originally preferred Overturn who has looked good but Simonsig has looked awesome.
Overturn is a cracking ew bet imo, I can't see him out of the places and would be a possible winner if good was in the description. I can't see any of the others being involved.

Arvika and Oscars Well have been disappointing for me, I'll side with Captain Conan to fill up the places.

Johner

Overturn

ft9 wrote: »

Arvika and Oscars Well have been disappointing for me, I'll side with Captain Conan to fill up the places.

Captain Conan will go for the Jewson and I wouldn't be surprised to see Arvika and Oscars go for it as well. Bit harsh to call Arvika dissappointing!

Can see there being a similar amount of runners as last year and Simonsig bolting up like SS last year.

ft9

Arvika Legionniere

Johner wrote: »

Captain Conan will go for the Jewson and I wouldn't be surprised to see Arvika and Oscars go for it as well. Bit harsh to call Arvika dissappointing!

Can see there being a similar amount of runners as last year and Simonsig bolting up like SS last year.

Yes I'm aware they might go elsewhere. I'm purely just taking the first few in the betting into account here. It really looks like a Simonsig, Overturn 1,2 with a small field. I would give Arvika no chance if it lined up here.

jimjamcos

Overturn

Tom Segal has tipped Fago in today's Racing Post.

Think the race will cut up with Captain Conan going Jewson route. If they rate CC as highly as it looks, just wouldn't make sense running him against Simonsig in Arkle when he'd have a great chance in Jewson. If he runs in the race this weekend and wins well, I'd assume the decision has been made.

Like last year, can only see 4 or 5 lining up as things stand: Simonsig, Overturn, Arvika Ligeonniere, Fago and maybe Oscars Well.

Think both Overturn and Arvika Ligeonniere are very good e/w bets as you could very likely end up having both running for you with 3 places (considering Simonsig wins) in a 4/5 horse field.

One of the bookmakers are sure to have some offer similar to the Paddy Power Sprinter Sacre one last year to tempt punters in on 1st day too so the race looks like one market that could be played now and exploited on day for guaranteed profit!

Sorry...my post is a bit behind but think Arvika will definitely go to Arkle!

mdwexford

Overturn

Johner wrote: »

Captain Conan will go for the Jewson and I wouldn't be surprised to see Arvika and Oscars go for it as well. Bit harsh to call Arvika dissappointing!

Can see there being a similar amount of runners as last year and Simonsig bolting up like SS last year.

My thoughts exactly.

Slattsy

Overturn

Simonsig in a canter.

Hopefully the bookies will take him on on the day and make him a decent price for mug punters such as myself to play with.
Will he touch evens or 5/4?

klairondavis

Arvika Legionniere

The Jewson has ruined this race. Too many horses who would be realistic contenders for either an Arkle or an RSA are taking the easy option now.

jimjamcos

Overturn

Slattsy wrote: »

Simonsig in a canter.

Hopefully the bookies will take him on on the day and make him a decent price for mug punters such as myself to play with.
Will he touch evens or 5/4?

Doubt he'll go near evens. Think the likes of PP will encourage punters to back the others with money back offers on losers like last year. Evens would be an absolute gift if he's there healthy and well on day.

eoghan_85

Overturn

What was PP's offer on last year's day 1? Was it money back if 2nd to Sprinter S or something?

Colonel Sanders

eoghan_85 wrote: »

What was PP's offer on last year's day 1? Was it money back if 2nd to Sprinter S or something?

All Arkle bets refunded (to a max of €100 per customer) if Sprinter Sacre won

Of course using multiple shops allowed you to get a decent wedge on risk free

jimjamcos

Overturn

eoghan_85 wrote: »

What was PP's offer on last year's day 1? Was it money back if 2nd to Sprinter S or something?

Think it was money back on all losers if SS won. Was a great offer if you were all in on SS antepost as you could back the other 3 runners at nice prices guaranteeing profit!

It seemed a stupidly good offer but obviously any profit made by punters was more than returned over next few days! Just a publicity stunt for creating hype on first day really but can see a similar one this year with Simonsig looking unbeatable!

the groutch

klairondavis wrote: »

The Jewson has ruined this race. Too many horses who would be realistic contenders for either an Arkle or an RSA are taking the easy option now.

not really, it gives a realistic option for horses who find a suicidally paced 2m too fast, and won't yet stay 3m

for example Kauto Star, Kicking King and War of Attrition were all forced to run in the Arkle because of lack of a Jewson, and Best Mate was due to run in it before the F&M kicked in.

klairondavis

Arvika Legionniere

the groutch wrote: »

not really, it gives a realistic option for horses who find a suicidally paced 2m too fast, and won't yet stay 3m

for example Kauto Star, Kicking King and War of Attrition were all forced to run in the Arkle because of lack of a Jewson, and Best Mate was due to run in it before the F&M kicked in.

Kauto Star was injured and missed Cheltenham in his novice year? The other two enhanced the Arkle by running in it. Kicking King ran a blinder only being beaten by one of the best two milers in living memory in Well Chief and War Of Attrition went off favourite but made a blunder early on that put him out of the race. It looks like a cakewalk this year for Simonsig barring an accident. At least if Captain Conan, Aupcharlie and Oscars Well lined up they would add a bit of depth to the race.

droidman123

Overturn

klairondavis wrote: »

Kauto Star was injured and missed Cheltenham in his novice year? The other two enhanced the Arkle by running in it. Kicking King ran a blinder only being beaten by one of the best two milers in living memory in Well Chief and War Of Attrition went off favourite but made a blunder early on that put him out of the race. It looks like a cakewalk this year for Simonsig barring an accident. At least if Captain Conan, Aupcharlie and Oscars Well lined up they would add a bit of depth to the race.

I think in general IMO since they made it a four day festival a lot of the races have been diluted of class.there was talk of a five day festival which I think would be disastrous.the arkle has definitely been diluted of class and excitement since the other options of different races have been introduced.

ft9

Arvika Legionniere

Now with added poll. I went with Overturn, purely out of hope.

jimjamcos

Overturn

ft9 wrote: »

Now with added poll. I went with Overturn, purely out of hope.

He's the only horse I can see troubling Simonsig...like you I'd prefer take a chance on Overturn if I could get around 3/1 on day rather than back the odds on fav.

droidman123

Overturn

i will be backing simonsig, but only in a double or treble.

Huntley

Something about Overturn that I just don't like. After I backed Sprinter to beat Peddlers last year in the Wayward Lad I said afterwards that he looked the Arkle winner. Even though I don't laud over Simonsig like others I haven't got that striking impression from anyone bar him.

UrbanSea

Overturn

Don't think it's the strongest two mile novice bunch this year to be honest. Simonsig aside, I wonder just how good Overturn would look outside novice company

mdwexford

Overturn

The two mile senior group isn't too hot at the moment either bar SS.

Sizing Europe and Finian's Rainbow are past their best and nothing else of note really.

If Simonsig does smash the Arkle I'm very interested to see where they go with him next year.

Haldon Gold Cup and King George perhaps?

Colonel Sanders

mdwexford wrote: »

The two mile senior group isn't too hot at the moment either bar SS.

Sizing Europe and Finian's Rainbow are past their best and nothing else of note really.

If Simonsig does smash the Arkle I'm very interested to see where they go with him next year.

Haldon Gold Cup and King George perhaps?

And if Overturn wins he'll be 10 next year!

Can imagine Simonsig being tried over further alright

jimjamcos

Overturn

mdwexford wrote: »

The two mile senior group isn't too hot at the moment either bar SS.

Sizing Europe and Finian's Rainbow are past their best and nothing else of note really.

If Simonsig does smash the Arkle I'm very interested to see where they go with him next year.

Haldon Gold Cup and King George perhaps?

Yea, they'll definitely try the King George I'd say and hope Simonsig's a Gold Cup horse. No way they'll want to race the two best chasers in training against each other if at all possible.

Colonel Sanders

Looking at Betfair it'll surely be 6-7 runners max

Gautama

Fago

I can see Simonsig being beaten and he's a lay for me.

He's more odds-on than Sprinter Sacre was in last year's Arkle but not at all as good a jumper.

(Unless he gets a prep run soon) He'll have been off track for 10 weeks. He has only chased twice, and those two races within the space of 10 days.

He has beaten nine horses over fences and only one of those, Sulpius, has won a race since (as bottom weight in a five runner handicap novice chase).

His time in Kempton was 20s slower than Sprinter Sacre the previous year, and the latter was a slow race itself.

His time in Ascot was 10s slower than Zaynar the previous year.

Yes, the ground was heavy for Simonsig, but I don't see the justification for odds-on when there are so many shortcomings.

ste2010

Arvika Legionniere

the champion races including novices are really looking to be weak in terms of competitiveness bar the gold cup this year.
I'm going to back overturn small bet in hope also. Can't have simonsigs price

Gautama

Fago

The weakness of the other contenders is the main thing in Simonsig's favour I reckon.
But who knows, may be a cracker on the day.

jimjamcos

Overturn

I've read that some in Seven Barrows are of the opinion that Simonsig is better than Sprinter Sacre. While not believing such hype, even the thought alone is enough to suggest he'll win the Arkle.

Like others, I'd rather chance a small bet on Overturn as he's sure to give you a run for your money or an ew bet on Arvika Ligeonniere.

Hoofer

I think it is best to draw a line on Arvika Ligeonniere last run in Leopardstown when he fell..only 3 runners so different pace and it was a bog..I think he will run a big race if he goes for the arkle on better ground and probably is the each way bet..hes coming in slightly under the radar and could surprise with a good run..its all on the day but will have to attack each fence and travel to beat Simonsig.

mdwexford

Overturn

Gautama wrote: »

I can see Simonsig being beaten and he's a lay for me.

He's more odds-on than Sprinter Sacre was in last year's Arkle but not at all as good a jumper.

(Unless he gets a prep run soon) He'll have been off track for 10 weeks. He has only chased twice, and those two races within the space of 10 days.

He has beaten nine horses over fences and only one of those, Sulpius, has won a race since (as bottom weight in a five runner handicap novice chase).

His time in Kempton was 20s slower than Sprinter Sacre the previous year, and the latter was a slow race itself.

His time in Ascot was 10s slower than Zaynar the previous year.

Yes, the ground was heavy for Simonsig, but I don't see the justification for odds-on when there are so many shortcomings.

There are no shortcomings.

You are really clutching at straws with your reasons imo.

jimjamcos

Overturn

mdwexford wrote: »

There are no shortcomings.

You are really clutching at straws with your reasons imo.

Yea I'd agree with you. Definitely not a horse I'd advise anyone to lay! Maybe in a big field with more than 1/2 dangers but this years Arkle will in all likelihood be identical to his 2 chases so far bar a bit of extra pace. A small field will allow him plenty of time to weigh up his fences if there's any issues there and strong pace provided by Overturn will not inconvenience him.

Far better lays at festival IMO.

SRFC

Arvika Legionniere

jimjamcos wrote: »

Yea I'd agree with you. Definitely not a horse I'd advise anyone to lay! Maybe in a big field with more than 1/2 dangers but this years Arkle will in all likelihood be identical to his 2 chases so far bar a bit of extra pace. A small field will allow him plenty of time to weigh up his fences if there's any issues there and strong pace provided by Overturn will not inconvenience him.

Far better lays at festival IMO.

I've been banging on about laying him and the extra hype from Hendersons will hopefully shorten him up so I can lay him for more,He has done nothing over fences to deserve his reputation the beating of Hinterland is worthless form who would be tailed off behind any average chaser he is an absolute hound that wont win another race unless its very poor,his win in ascot was another schooling session with only dangers falling ect,obviously Overturn hasnt been winning big field races or anything but his schooling sessions have been as impressive and he is the better hurdler of the 2 proven by his placing in a CH,


Good luck to to his backers backing this novice at short odds after two runs months earlier,they'll need it wouldnt surprise me if he didnt get around Cheltenham with the pace Overturn will be going at.

jimjamcos

Overturn

SRFC wrote: »

I've been banging on about laying him and the extra hype from Hendersons will hopefully shorten him up so I can lay him for more,He has done nothing over fences to deserve his reputation the beating of Hinterland is worthless form who would be tailed off behind any average chaser he is an absolute hound that wont win another race unless its very poor,his win in ascot was another schooling session with only dangers falling ect,obviously Overturn hasnt been winning big field races or anything but his schooling sessions have been as impressive and he is the better hurdler of the 2 proven by his placing in a CH,


Good luck to to his backers backing this novice at short odds after two runs months earlier,they'll need it wouldnt surprise me if he didnt get around Cheltenham with the pace Overturn will be going at.

You can't really use Overturns Champion Hurdle placing as valid proof that he was a better hurdler than Simonsig. Simonsig did very little wrong over hurdles as a novice winning more than impressively at both Cheltenham and Aintree and would definitely be close to the head of this years CH market if they'd chosen that route. You're simply guessing if you're laying Simonsig on the basis that Overturn was a better hurdler. We don't know how good Simonsig could of been at CH standard.


I won't be backing Simonsig at his price but there's a huge difference between not backing him and laying him. You're a brave man but I'd rather just have a small bet on Overturn as I do agree with you that there's not much difference in what they've both achieved over fences so far. Simonsig has far more natural potential however and I'd far rather lay the likes of MTOR or HF in competitive races with more than one danger. Just my opinion.

Gautama

Fago

I'll add this: he's a very good horse and it will need tactics to beat him. A tactical jockey on a good horse will be required. I assume Ruby will be on board Arvika Ligeonniere?
Ruby, who better in jockey tactics? He's also been up close (and far away:D) from Simonsig in that last race.
And when AL won in Fairyhouse those were impressive tactics. Made all and well, well, clear... allowed the group to catch up... then pushed on. The horse responds well to instructions.

Slattsy

Overturn

I was reading some of the reviews that Geraghty has been at. He says Simonsig is faster than Sprinter Sacre.
SS is 1/4 for the CC. Simonsig is 8/11 for the Arkle.
You do that math.

Huntley

Slattsy wrote: »

I was reading some of the reviews that Geraghty has been at. He says Simonsig is faster than Sprinter Sacre.
SS is 1/4 for the CC. Simonsig is 8/11 for the Arkle.
You do that math.

Faster on the gallops. Different ball game when they are jumping obstacles at the same time.

Think Simonsig is nailed on myself.

Slattsy

Overturn

Huntley wrote: »

Faster on the gallops. Different ball game when they are jumping obstacles at the same time.

Think Simonsig is nailed on myself.

Well yeah

But still, its some statement to come out with given how 'fast' SS is !
And for a horse like Simonsig that has won a P2P to show that speed is just incredible.

I cant see Henderson keeping them both at 2 miles next year. I fully expect Simonsig to tackle longer distances. But thats a thread for 2014.

Colonel Sanders

The thing about the Arkle is there's a danger Overturn & Arvika cut each others throats

Even if the respective jockeys are sensible sitting off the fast gallop is surely ideal for Simonsig.

Strangely neither Overturn nor Simonsig have been really asked to race over fences yet. The only thing I can see in favour of those laying Simonsig is if his jumping at proper championship 2m speed catches him out.

dk6dk6

Overturn

Anyone laying Simonsig needs their head examined.

byronbay2

dk6dk6 wrote: »

Anyone laying Simonsig needs their head examined.

There were people saying exactly the same thing about Hurricane Fly for the Champion Hurdle last year. Every year horses are beaten that appear unbeatable beforehand - remember Master Minded among others. I am not planning to lay Simonsig at the moment but I would certainly not call it a crazy/stupid/mentally unbalanced thing to do!

longshotvalue

Arvika Legionniere

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

The thing about the Arkle is there's a danger Overturn & Arvika cut each others throats

Even if the respective jockeys are sensible sitting off the fast gallop is surely ideal for Simonsig.

Strangely neither Overturn nor Simonsig have been really asked to race over fences yet. The only thing I can see in favour of those laying Simonsig is if his jumping at proper championship 2m speed catches him out.

Possible but im not sure anyhting can cut Overturns throat Arvika looks a bit slow. This is the race of the festival for me..

SRFC

Arvika Legionniere

dk6dk6 wrote: »

Anyone laying Simonsig needs their head examined.

How much you having on this certainty so??



Ill be too happy to lay it and place lay it,has won 2 schooling races over fences beating tree's going in the opposite direction and its odds on,has great potential but im against it untill he proves it over fences and at probable odds of 4/7 ish on the day I wont be cleaned out or have egg on my face.

dk6dk6

Overturn

SRFC wrote: »

How much you having on this certainty so??



Ill be too happy to lay it and place lay it,has won 2 schooling races over fences beating tree's going in the opposite direction and its odds on,has great potential but im against it untill he proves it over fences and at probable odds of 4/7 ish on the day I wont be cleaned out or have egg on my face.

Simonsig was made for jumping and at the prices he's almost the value bet of the meeting. 4/6 on him jumping around, i'd take it all day long.And a little tip, don't listen to Donald McCains nonsense that Overturn is the better horse, this time lasy year he was telling us Peddlers Cross was a better animal than SS, then he switched races to avoid him.

SRFC

Arvika Legionniere

Im not backing overturn im just laying simonsig,Overturn has no put a foot wrong over fences so he cant be crabbed,I wouldnt take 8/11 on any novice chaser on his 3rd start to jump around cheltenham and win a grade 1 definitly not any value at 8/11 in my book.

Gringo180

SRFC wrote: »

Im not backing overturn im just laying simonsig,Overturn has no put a foot wrong over fences so he cant be crabbed,I wouldnt take 8/11 on any novice chaser on his 3rd start to jump around cheltenham and win a grade 1 definitly not any value at 8/11 in my book.

Totally agree with you 8/11 is very short but his performences since switched to fences have looked visually sensastional. Could be anything and thats why hes very tempting to be peoples banker at the festival.

Huntley

SRFC wrote: »

have egg on my face.

In fairness, and I like your bullishness, but you have made so many negative comments and statements about the horse that you will have plenty of egg on your face if he wins.

SRFC

Arvika Legionniere

Huntley wrote: »

In fairness, and I like your bullishness, but you have made so many negative comments and statements about the horse that you will have plenty of egg on your face if he wins.

I think you'll find laying a horse who has lost once I think and is hot odds on favourite is not like saying a 40/1 shot has no chance and it winning or saying this odds on fav is a certainty it cant lose and it gets beaten

Im taking on a probable 4/7 shot my account wont be cleaned out if he proves me wrong,but a question if im right does it mean everyone against my view on here will they ''have egg on their faces'' for fancying the jolly and it losing? or is it just us bullish people who aint sittin on the fence?

Hulk Hands

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

The thing about the Arkle is there's a danger Overturn & Arvika cut each others throats

Even if the respective jockeys are sensible sitting off the fast gallop is surely ideal for Simonsig.

Strangely neither Overturn nor Simonsig have been really asked to race over fences yet. The only thing I can see in favour of those laying Simonsig is if his jumping at proper championship 2m speed catches him out.

What would you think about backing him with fallers insurance? I'm on Overturn at fancy prices but will probably have a decent bet on that if 1/2 or bigger on the day. Had to see him beat if standing up. I've also heard that he worked with SS and worked better from a couple of places

Huntley

SRFC wrote: »

I think you'll find laying a horse who has lost once I think and is hot odds on favourite is not like saying a 40/1 shot has no chance and it winning or saying this odds on fav is a certainty it cant lose and it gets beaten

Im taking on a probable 4/7 shot my account wont be cleaned out if he proves me wrong,but a question if im right does it mean everyone against my view on here will they ''have egg on their faces'' for fancying the jolly and it losing? or is it just us bullish people who aint sittin on the fence?

There is a difference between fancying a horse and completely certifying/disregarding one. If people definitively stated that he was a certainty to win and he lost then yes they would have egg on their face.

You stated that Simonsig won't win.

dk6dk6

Overturn

Simonsig will win without any doubt. People are fabricating non existant reasons to why he'll get beat. As big a certainty as SS is imo.

SRFC

Arvika Legionniere

Huntley wrote: »

There is a difference between fancying a horse and completely certifying/disregarding one. If people definitively stated that he was a certainty to win and he lost then yes they would have egg on their face.

You stated that Simonsig won't win.

hes odds on to win thought im in the minority laying him laying him because i havent seen anyone else coming on saying they're laying the horse.

Hulk Hands

SRFC wrote: »

More like you cant argue the facts of his machine like form wouldnt win a champion hurdle if he started now and wont be winning an arkle either

SRFC wrote: »

How much you having on this certainty so??



Ill be too happy to lay it and place lay it,has won 2 schooling races over fences beating tree's going in the opposite direction and its odds on,has great potential but im against it untill he proves it over fences and at probable odds of 4/7 ish on the day I wont be cleaned out or have egg on my face.

He was 3/1 when you made the above comment along with countless others about him not winning the Arkle. You can't cop out now and maintain your only going against a 4/7 shot. He was 3's when you disregarded his chances. What price you actually lay at is irrelevant