Wales vs Ireland, Sat 2 Feb 1:30pm, match thread; RTÉ/BBC [MOD WARNING POST 1451]

thomond2006

VS

Ireland:
15 Rob Kearney, 14 Craig Gilroy, 13 Brian O'Driscoll, 12 Gordon D'Arcy, 11 Simon Zebo, 10 Jonathan Sexton, 9 Conor Murray,
8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 Peter O'Mahony, 6 Sean O'Brien, 5 Mike McCarthy, 4 Donnacha Ryan, 3 Mike Ross, 2 Rory Best, 1 Cian Healy.

Replacements: 16 Sean Cronin, 17 Dave Kilcoyne, 18 Declan Fitzpatrick, 19 Donncha O'Callaghan, 20 Chris Henry, 21 Eoin Reddan, 22 Ronan O'Gara, 23 Keith Earls.

Wales:
15 Leigh Halfpenny, 14 Alex Cuthbert, 13 Jonathan Davies, 12 Jamie Roberts, 11 George North, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Mike Phillips,
8 Toby Faletau, 7 Sam Warburton, 6 Aaron Shingler, 5 Ian Evans, 4 Andrew Coombs, 3 Adam Jones, 2 Matthew Rees, 1 Gethin Jenkins.

Replacements: 16 Ken Owens, 17 Paul James, 18 Craig Mitchell, 19 Olly Kohn, 20 Justin Tipuric, 21 Lloyd Williams, 22 James Hook, 23 Scott Williams.

Date: Saturday, 2 February
Venue: Millennium Stadium
Kick-off: 13:30 GMT
Referee: Romain Poite (France)
Assistant referees: Jaco Peyper (South Africa) and Pascal Gauzere (France)

Another year, another Six Nations begins! Defending champions Wales host Ireland in what is set to be the closest tie of the opening round. Both teams will have legitimate ambitions of winning this year's competition, albeit the bookmakers and majority of pundits would pour cold water on those aspirations. However a win here would be a massive step in the right direction.

It is somewhat difficult to view Wales as a 'champion' and therefore a favourite for this year's competition. They were the best side in last year's tournament and this reflected in their perfect record, but their fortunes since then have taken a significant nosedive. A series whitewash in Australia followed by a 0-4 record in the Autumn Internationals have seen the Welsh national side once again fall flat on its face from a high. However Wales were unlucky in many of those games, particularly against Australia who relied on last minute scores for many of their victories. The double jobbing of Warren Gatland and Rob Howley hardly helped matters during the November tests and the less said about the regions the better. The consistent failure at regional level, coupled with the inifighting between region and union and the departure of key players have left an unsavoury atmosphere in Welsh Rugby and hardly ideal surroundings for the national side. However Wales in recent years have largely triumphed despite that adversity and it wouldn't be a major surprise to see it happen again. Regional form has never provided a helping hand when it comes to international performance.

Similar to Wales, Ireland endured a poor summer but their autumn campaign ended on a positive note with Argentina dispatched in the final test of the year. It was an excellent performance, the first win over a decent international side for a while. The argument may be that Argentina were "jaded", but Ireland never allowed the visitors to get into the game when it was a contest. This is Declan Kidney's last months of his current contract, this Six Nations Championship will be his job interview for an extension or simply his last chance to improve his mixed legacy as Irish coach. The Grand Slam is now four years old and not even the journalists who engage in bizarre veneration can use the argument of "Ah shure isn't he grand, first Grand Slam in 61 years and all" with any legitimacy.

Selections:

The new generation: Simon Zebo and Craig Gilroy

Ireland: There are little surprises in the Irish lineup. Craig Gilroy retains his spot in the starting XV despite suggestions that Keith Earls would be moved there with Brian O'Driscoll back at outside centre. Chris Henry is the unluckiest of the players left out of the starting XV, with Sean O'Brien returning after missing the autumn internationals. Declan Fitzpatrick is the tighthead prop replacement despite a lack of gametime, ahead of Michael Bent.

Wales: Wales start Dan Biggar ahead of James Hook at flyhalf. The rumour that both Warburton and Tipuric would start didn't prove true, with Aaron Shingler starting at blindside. Despite a lack of gametime in France, Gethin Jenkins starts at prop. Adam Jones returns from injury at tighthead and is a very important player for Wales.

Key Battle: The Centres

Jamie Roberts and Jonathan Davies vs Gordon D'Arcy & Brian O'Driscoll

A key matchup will be in the midfield with four players who are all potential Lions tourists. Much of the attention from an Irish perspective will be the ability of D'Arcy and O'Driscoll to still be an attacking partnership. They have a big defensive challenge to hinder Roberts and Davies, who will utilise their strength to break the Irish defence. D'Arcy's form at international level has been under scrutiny for a few seasons, however his recent form for Leinster has been impressive.

Prediction:
In the autumn Wales looked low in confidence, if they can't bring it together here then Ireland have the ability to pounce. The lineout may be the area for Ireland to target, Wales will be missing Alun Wyn-Jones and Bradley Davies. The Welsh lineout has never been a strength even with first choice players. With Adam Jones back the Welsh scrum will be strong, Mike Ross needs to hold out for the majority of the game as Declan Fitzpatrick doesn't inspire confidence as an early substitute. Wales have an enormous backline and as mentioned before Ireland will have to contend with a big size disadvantage. The Jonny Sexton saga should be put to bed by Saturday and Jamie Heaslip will be out to prove why the captaincy change was a good move. Ireland to win by less than five points.

---

Team lineups, refs/dates from Planet Rugby. Player images from Planet Rugby/Sky Sports. RBS Six Nations logo from www.cmdsports.co.uk, Ireland/Wales logo from www.therugbyforum.com

Everything else is my own work.

Otacon

Too close to call

While I don't think Wales' recent form will have much impact this weekend, their long list of injuries might. I concur with your opinion.

BTW I think POM is playing at 6 and SOB at 7

19543261

Too close to call

WHOOO, MATCH DAY THREAD, TIME TO GET PSYCHED.

DDC1990

Too close to call

Not going to lie, very happy with that team, 1-23.

I know a lot of people would prefer to see Henry ahead of POM, Anyone ahead of ROG and McFadden/Luke Fitz ahead of Earls, but im delighted TBH.

Kilcoyne and Fitzpatrick on the bench is great as well.

awec

A truly splendid opening post. I doff my cap to you sir, in a manner befitting your greatness.

darragh_haven

Too close to call

Very happy with 22 of the 23, Rog should step aside. I am happy enough with POM ahead of Henry (other will disagree) but its a close call and I don't think anyone should get upset about it.
I'd have say good on ya Deccie, (in general)

SebBerkovich

Too close to call

I was getting a little stressed about this game yesterday.. little worried what a loss would mean for the rest of the tournament.

the friend i was with at the time looked me straight in the eye and PROMISED that Ireland would win.

i'm very confident about saturday now.

Thekidneybean

Too close to call

Great team i think, only change i'd make is McFadden on at bench instead of earls and as the 6nations goes on if Darcy doesnt improve his position should be considered hes just not a dangerous attacker as before but still great side should beat the Welsh

molloyjh

Thekidneybean wrote: »

Great team i think, only change i'd make is McFadden on at bench instead of earls and as the 6nations goes on if Darcy doesnt improve his position should be considered hes just not a dangerous attacker as before but still great side should beat the Welsh

You did see the Argentina game didn't you? He was excellent that day.

Fishooks13

Happy with the 23 bar ROG and Reddan who don't deserve to be there but they were always going to be in the 23

Our first 15 has a frightening amount of talent though and if Kidney gets his gameplan right, which he can do on occasion, we'll win I think.

thebaz

happy with the selection - bent not ther - big championship for kidney - ther is no reason why we shouldn't do a grand slam - lets start off by putting wales away with a good performance

shuffol

Happiest I've been with an Ireland XV in a long time, dissapointed not to see Henry in there, POM's quality but with Henry we'd have had the strongest back row at competing on the deck possible(and probably one of the strongest ever to line out for Ireland in that area).Not to mention the benefit of the obvious understanding that Best and Henry have round the tackle area for Ulster. Deprive Wales of quick ball and they'll look very one dimensional.

One more thing, blitz defense please.

irishbucsfan

I'm confident our defence will be much better this time out thanks to Axel's influence. Last time we had a confused coaching staff who weren't performing to the sum of their parts. In the AIs they seemed to have crossed that hurdle with 3 good game plans (my opinion). We have excellent specialists who are, I think, top class. We also have a midfield without McFadden, which is another bonus.

I'm looking forward to seeing if McQuilkin will do his preview this week.

enda1

Too close to call

Ireland by 8 - 10.

Comfortable win leading by 13-15 with 10 minutes to play, ROG comes on and we concede a try.

JRant

Can't see past a victory for Wales. If there was one team they would have picked to play first and build a bit of confidence for the remaining games it would be us.
Gatland and Co have won every tactical battle over the past few seasons and I see no difference here. No Henry is lunacy imo, sure POM is a fine player but he's not what's needed against the Welsh backrow.
If/when they get quick ball it's game over, our wings and centres are just to small to cope with them coming onto us at pace.

Wales by 7+

petebricquette

Too close to call

JRant wrote: »

Can't see past a victory for Wales. If there was one team they would have picked to play first and build a bit of confidence for the remaining games it would be us.

Not Scotland or Italy no? They've had a terrible streak of losses so they're going to be fairly nervous coming into this encounter IMO. I think we can do a number on them if we don't play directly into their hands like the WC.

awec

Losing to Wales would be a huge blow TBH, a real anti-climax. It'd be goodbye to the grand slam and rule out any triple crown, all in 1 week. I'd be fearful that we'd capitulate in the following games.

We have the fixture list in our favour this time with a real decent shot at it, be awful if we gave it all up in the first game IMO.

mystic86

Anyone know if RTE will be showing these in HD again (like last year)?

who_me

mystic86 wrote: »

Anyone know if RTE will be showing these in HD again (like last year)?

Yup, it'll be in HD on RTE (and likely BBC too).

Swiwi

I think Irish fans (and that includes myself ) should be pretty happy overall with the starting 15. Would have been intriguing to know the lineup if Bowe had been available.

I don't know any of the words to Amhrán na bhFiann, but like it or loathe it I will sing "Ireland's Call" at full gusto come Saturday.

Good luck to the men in green, and here's hoping Gilroy & Zebo make their opposites look like rank amateurs!

JRant

petebricquette wrote: »

Not Scotland or Italy no? They've had a terrible streak of losses so they're going to be fairly nervous coming into this encounter IMO. I think we can do a number on them if we don't play directly into their hands like the WC.

Of course those teams would, on paper, be easier games but there's more to it than just that.

From a motivational point of view they'll be well up to beat us again and tatically they've had the upper hand as of late. Add in home advantage and it's going to take a very good performance from us to get anything out of this game.

Tox56

Hope Sexton has a stormer to set him up for the Lions

trackguy

If we turn in another clueless, unambitious, predictable performance against Wales (see last 3 matches) it would be the death nail in the coffin of this management regime.

Selection possibly points to lessons having being learnt.

We need parity in the scrum and think we can be reasonably confident that we can achieve this. The line out could be profitable for Ireland. Our 2nd rows have been in the set up for a while, should be settled and Best is one of the best in the business. The backrow provides good options here too.

Assuming the pack can provide it, Murray must make the most of quick ball. Our outside backs are bang in form and we have a great mix of experience and youth in the back line.

I'd love to see attacking patterns making the most of Heaslip, Healy and SOB getting over the gainline, not the monotonous lining up in pods and smashing it up. Wales were all over this in the last few games.

I picked too close to call in the poll as I can't make up my mind on which way I think it will go!

thomond2006

Too close to call

Ronan O'Gara

- Comes on for 10 minutes
- Misses tackles
- Leaves

awec

thomond2006 wrote: »

Ronan O'Gara

- Come on for 10 minutes
- Miss tackles
- Leave

Or, with 2 minutes to go and Ireland a few points behind, Ronan O'Gara will have ball in hand and run straight into contact, utilising that strength that he is renowned for to move us forward 3 inches.

pickarooney

Ireland

Wales by about 12 I reckon. Home advantage, power across the 3/4 line and an early try to decide it.

CatFromHue

In many ways this is a must win game for Wales too. Their fixture list isn't kind at all!

Wales v Ireland
France v Wales
Italy v Wales
Scotland v Wales
Wales v England

If they lose the first game it's not unthinkable that they'd be going to Scotland with 0 wins!

Banbridgeman2

Ireland

Obviously I'd like Marshall (subbing) and Henry there but it's the happiest I've been with Ireland team in a long time

[Jackass]

Ireland

Can't really fathom the O'Gara selection still. Not sure what the point is, especially since Kidney has decided to use this season to try and save his job and to have Ireland to win, putting his pet projects on hold.

I think Ireland could very well win this, especially since Gatland won be in town who has Kidneys number.

Having said that, I think Wales' have Irelands number under Kidney....it's really too close to call. Very excited by the back three, will be interesting to see! Was a big call dropping Earls', but the form back 3 has been picked....Kidney really has decided to have a go at getting Ireland to win this season.

CatFromHue

In fairness Paddy Jackson didn't set the world alight on Friday night.

Tox56

CatFromHue wrote: »

In fairness Paddy Jackson didn't set the world alight on Friday night.

Which is why I wanted to see Madigan in an impact sub role that he could play for Ireland after 50-60 mins. Why even bother keeping PJ on for the full 80 when A) You don't intend to use him next week, and You have 3 10's in the squad

Should really have had a look at one of the sub 10's in the AI's rather than now.

trackguy

http://www.rte.ie/sport/rugby/six-nations/2013/0129/365172-kidney-believes-in-new-ireland-evolution/

It seems Kidney is not a creationist anyway.

Also, no wonder Sexton is fecking off to France. Everyone keeps calling him cranky! Ross was at it at the weekend too!

phog

thomond2006 wrote: »

Ronan O'Gara

- Comes on for 10 minutes
- Misses tackles
- Leaves

There are times when I think Boards should have a thumbs downs button similar to the thank you button, this is one if those times. Say what you like about ROG but no fan should wish/hope for such a scenario to happen on a player playing for his country.

Very happy with the squad, thought Earls would have got a spot on the wing but the bench was the correct call, Kilcoyne is there or there about but I thought Court would have got the bench ahead of him, he deserves the spot for being the scapegoat last year.

thomond2006

Too close to call

phog wrote: »

There are times when I think Boards should have a thumbs downs button similar to the thank you button, this is one if those times. Say what you like about ROG but no fan should wish/hope for such a scenario to happen on a player playing for his country.

It's only light-hearted...

Did I say I wanted that to happen? I hope he has a stormer if he comes on, that's goes without saying surely? Do I have to spell that out? Not every crack at a player is an attack you know.

I just don't think you get my sense of humour, you've replied to similar comments before (one at TOL IIRC). No problem if you don't find it funny, just don't accuse me of hatred when it's not. "Why so serious?"

CatFromHue

He's (Madigan) not doing that for Leinster so why would you expect him to do that for Ireland?

Madigan didn't come until the 71st min against Lanelli when we needed tries and the game had stagnated at around the 45/50 min mark. Against Exeter he only came on at the 71st min even then he only came on for BOD

I don't know what Kidney was thinking in A selection of all three outhalves but it does look like he favours Jackson ahead of Madigan and Keatley as Jackson also played against Fiji.

Edit: I've got my games mixed up. Madigan came on at the 78th min against Exeter for BOD and the 71st min against Lanelli.

durkadurka

All about the scrum methinks.
If we hold our own there we should be ok.

trackguy

phog wrote: »

no fan should wish/hope for such a scenario to happen on a player playing for his country.

It's not about wishing or hoping. The sad fact is it is likely to happen hence why he should not be there.

phog wrote: »

but I thought Court would have got the bench ahead of him, he deserves the spot for being the scapegoat last year.

That is not a reason to select him. It was a tight call between him and Kilcoyne.

Tox56

CatFromHue wrote: »

He's (Madigan) not doing that for Leinster so why would you expect him to do that for Ireland?

Madigan didn't come until the 78th min against Lanelli when we needed tries and the game had stagnated at around the 45/50 min mark, even then he only came on for BOD. Against Exeter he only came on at the 71st min.

I don't know what Kidney was thinking in A selection of all three outhalves but it does look like he favours Jackson ahead of Madigan and Keatley as Jackson also played against Fiji.

Keatley was also picked ahead of Madigan in the Wolfhounds game last year, I just don't think Kidney rates him.

And I know Schmidt doesn't do it, and I'm annoyed he isn't doing it, especially when we needed tries in those last two games. He got 9 minutes against Scarlets and still managed to bag a try

phog

CatFromHue wrote: »

He's (Madigan) not doing that for Leinster so why would you expect him to do that for Ireland?

Madigan didn't come until the 78th min against Lanelli when we needed tries and the game had stagnated at around the 45/50 min mark, even then he only came on for BOD. Against Exeter he only came on at the 71st min.

I don't know what Kidney was thinking in A selection of all three outhalves but it does look like he favours Jackson ahead of Madigan and Keatley as Jackson also played against Fiji.

Madigan came on in that game because the scrumhalf was in the bin, it looked like he wasn't game time until then.

Teferi

trackguy wrote: »

http://www.rte.ie/sport/rugby/six-nations/2013/0129/365172-kidney-believes-in-new-ireland-evolution/

It seems Kidney is not a creationist anyway.

Also, no wonder Sexton is fecking off to France. Everyone keeps calling him cranky! Ross was at it at the weekend too!

That stuff at the end from Heaslip - absolutely gas!

When asked if there was any tension between himself and Sexton, Heaslip replied: "No, not in the slightest.
"It (France) has always been there, it's not like it's a new ball park. I doubt Jonny's thinking about being a guinea pig for anyone else.
"There hasn't been much chat except a bit of banter and trying to speak French to him.
"Jonny had to weigh up the offers and chose the option he chose. As a club-mate at Leinster and friend it's disappointing to lose him. We're going to miss him.
"It will be an amazing adventure for him and I'm sure he's looking forward to it.
"He's the ultimate professional. He came in on Sunday night and was good to go.....as cranky as ever. The business is done and he's onto the next challenge."

Teferi

phog wrote: »

There are times when I think Boards should have a thumbs downs button similar to the thank you button, this is one if those times. Say what you like about ROG but no fan should wish/hope for such a scenario to happen on a player playing for his country.

I don't know if you've noticed chap but Thomond is a bit of a joker. Clear as day it was in jest.

thomond2006

Too close to call

•Ashley Beck (centre) - will miss first two Six Nations games
•Huw Bennett (hooker) - targeting return in February
•Luke Charteris (lock) - out for the season
•Bradley Davies (lock) - unlikely to feature in Six Nations
•Ian Evans (lock) - 50/50 to start Six Nations
•Aaron Jarvis (prop) - out for the season
•Alun Wyn Jones (lock) - will miss start of Six Nations
•Ryan Jones (lock/back-row) - 50/50 to start Six Nations
•Dan Lydiate (flanker) - set to return in February
•Rhys Priestland (fly-half) - out for the season
•Eli Walker - doubt for Ireland

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-union/21234818

Five locks (if you count Ryan Jones as one) potentially missing for Wales this weekend. Yikes.

Quint2010

thomond2006 wrote: »

•Ashley Beck (centre) - will miss first two Six Nations games
•Huw Bennett (hooker) - targeting return in February
•Luke Charteris (lock) - out for the season
•Bradley Davies (lock) - unlikely to feature in Six Nations
•Ian Evans (lock) - 50/50 to start Six Nations
•Aaron Jarvis (prop) - out for the season
•Alun Wyn Jones (lock) - will miss start of Six Nations
•Ryan Jones (lock/back-row) - 50/50 to start Six Nations
•Dan Lydiate (flanker) - set to return in February
•Rhys Priestland (fly-half) - out for the season
•Eli Walker - doubt for Ireland

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-union/21234818

Five locks (if you count Ryan Jones as one) potentially missing for Wales this weekend. Yikes.

Heard Jones and Evans both took full part in training yesterday so expect both to start.

rchendz92

Too close to call

thomond2006 wrote: »

•Ashley Beck (centre) - will miss first two Six Nations games
•Huw Bennett (hooker) - targeting return in February
•Luke Charteris (lock) - out for the season
•Bradley Davies (lock) - unlikely to feature in Six Nations
•Ian Evans (lock) - 50/50 to start Six Nations
•Aaron Jarvis (prop) - out for the season
•Alun Wyn Jones (lock) - will miss start of Six Nations
•Ryan Jones (lock/back-row) - 50/50 to start Six Nations
•Dan Lydiate (flanker) - set to return in February
•Rhys Priestland (fly-half) - out for the season
•Eli Walker - doubt for Ireland

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-union/21234818

Five locks (if you count Ryan Jones as one) potentially missing for Wales this weekend. Yikes.

First choice second row out, no Dan Lydiate (IMO there best player aside from 1/2p who I actually rate as better than Kearney :eek:), no Walker who would have been keen to impress no doubt and a lack of experience with no Priestland (who, in all honesty, is rubbish...so maybe not so big a loss) and R Jones. Helps the confidence!

ouncer

Ireland

madigan, please. i'd get tony ward/ollie campbell out of retirement first. madigan plays many positions fine but he is no replacement for sexton, o'gara, keatley. he is an ordinary replacement, nothing else. he is a poor kicker at goal and other than the odd kick for position he is damm poor at that also

awec

ouncer wrote: »

madigan, please. i'd get tony ward/ollie campbell out of retirement first. madigan plays many positions fine but he is no replacement for sexton, o'gara, keatley. he is an ordinary replacement, nothing else. he is a poor kicker at goal and other than the odd kick for position he is damm poor at that also

Madigan is a better option than O'Gara. O'Gara should be nowhere near the team, he's clearly not in there on the basis of his form anyway.

Profiler

Too close to call

As good a starting 15 as could be selected and bar one or two of the subs I'm happy with that match day squad as selected by Deccie.

Very important to start well and get a win against Wales. They were handed a win against us last season by a stupid decision by a ref who has far too many brain farts to be a test level Ref for my liking. .

If the pack can establish parity in the set pieces then I'd be very confident of a victory.

Really looking forward to this, glad to have ye back 6 nations old buddy!

awec

So, pub recommendations? :pac:

ouncer

Ireland

everyone to their own opinion on this. darned if i could remember a game that madigan played a game that plays him in front of o'gara. has always been the case that sexton has physical presence, good penalty kicker and decent positional play. o'gara has poor physical presence, good penalty kicker and really good positional kicker. madigan has????

Foxtrol

ouncer wrote: »

everyone to their own opinion on this. darned if i could remember a game that madigan played a game that plays him in front of o'gara. has always been the case that sexton has physical presence, good penalty kicker and decent positional play. o'gara has poor physical presence, good penalty kicker and really good positional kicker. madigan has????

Last season in Thomond. Madigan completely outshone him.

Fishooks13

ouncer wrote: »

everyone to their own opinion on this. darned if i could remember a game that madigan played a game that plays him in front of o'gara. has always been the case that sexton has physical presence, good penalty kicker and decent positional play. o'gara has poor physical presence, good penalty kicker and really good positional kicker. madigan has????

Very good defense

A top class passing game

The ability to break and a nose for the try line

He's a decent kicker too