February 2013 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

February 2013 contest

1. Predict the IMT, an average of five selected stations, which has averaged 5.3 C for the 30-yr period 1981-2010.

2. Predict the highest daily maximum at any reporting (met.ie) station.

3. Predict the lowest daily minimum at any reporting (met.ie) station.

4. Predict the monthly precip as a percentage of normal (for 11 reporting stations in met.ie Monthly Summary)

5. Predict the monthly sunshine as a percentage of normal (for 6 reporting stations in met.ie Monthly Summary)

6. Bonus -- Predict the maximum number of hours of sunshine at any station in Ireland on Valentine's Day (14th Feb). Make your forecast to nearest tenths of an hour and note the max value of 10.0.

To enter, look for the updated form in a later post (should have this available before weekend is over, don't enter in the January form) or if you still prefer, enter by template:

TEMPLATE

IMT ..... MAX ..... MIN .... PRC ..... SUN ..... Sun-14th

---

Deadline for entries 0300h Saturday 2nd Feb so you have all day on Friday and most of the Friday night to work this out.

Late forecast penalty structure has changed from previous years. Please take careful notice ... it is basically 5 pts per half day late starting 0300h on the 2nd. This converts to (for example) 20 pts penalty on entries 1501 3rd to 0300 4th.

M.T. Cranium

This link should allow you to post your February forecast in the form.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/viewform?formkey=dElyZTJQeUJzVjdnQ1JBcThYdHpCSEE6MQ

Ignore any forecast over there from "testboy" that's just me testing the form.

cherryghost

Done.

H2UMrsRobinson

Done

Nabber

Done

pauldry

done

Bsal

Done.

Hammer Archer

Done.

Strasser

Done

talkabout

Done

omicron

Done.

Harps

Done

M.T. Cranium

One day left for penalty-free entry, use form in post 2

Bejubby

Done

Rikand

done

Joe Public

Done

Tae laidir

Done

dasa29

Done.

Jpmarn

Done, the form makes it easier to enter, thank you.

homolumo

done

mickger844posts

Done

SeaFields

Done

Speak Now

5.0 ..... 15.0 ..... -6.0 .... 100% ..... 100% ..... 6 hours

snowstreams

Done.

dexter647

Done

jd

Done

waterways

Done.

DOCARCH

Done

rameire

Done

traecy1

Done

dacogawa

Done!

delw

Done

nilhg

Done

jambofc

done

lostinashford

Done but late I think

kindredspirit

Ooops! Who's been a bold boy then and entered late?:eek:

(It just went out of my mind.):(

Anyway, form done.:)

okla

Done

MiNdGaM3

Done.

mayfly757

Light dusting here in Long Island NY

John mac

extreamly late on this one ,, done anyway ..

M.T. Cranium

People are still welcome to enter the old-fashined way by posting in this thread, in case you don't want to use the table.

I will start a policy of ignoring posts made by non-registered-on-Boards pseudonyms, including not mentioning them here. If I don't recognize a name and there is no post on the thread, and if I can't PM the person by the name they provide in the table, then the forecast does not exist in the contest.

Hope the person(s) spamming the contest will get that message but if they don't, knock yourselves out.

Rebelbrowser

Done finally

M.T. Cranium

Table of entries -- February contest

Please note that it is a requirement for entry to use a valid Boards.ie username. Other entries are not accepted.


Forecaster (penalty) ..... IMT ... MAX ... MIN ... PRC ... SUN ... Sun-14th
_______________________________________________________________


lostinashford (-5) .......... 6.7 .... 13.0 .... -4.8 .... 088 .... 104 .... 6.0
dexter647 .................... 6.3 .... 15.2 .... -4.3 .... 077 .... 073 .... 6.3
kindredspirit (-5) .......... 6.2 .... 15.5 .... -4.0 .... 070 .... 120 .... 4.0
SeaFields ..................... 6.1 .... 16.5 .... -7.0 .... 125 .... 050 .... 3.0
MiNdGaM3 (-10) ........... 6.1 .... 14.9 .... -4.9 .... 110 .... 095 .... 1.2
Strasser ...................... 6.0 .... 12.2 .... -4.5 .... 095 .... 090 .... 4.4
rameire ....................... 6.0 .... 15.3 .... -3.4 .... 080 .... 080 .... 3.5
Hammer Archer ............ 5.7 .... 14.1 .... -6.1 .... 087 .... 110 .... 4.2
nilhg ........................... 5.7 .... 13.9 .... -5.9 .... 105 .... 090 .... 3.5
Bsal ............................ 5.6 .... 14.2 .... -3.0 .... 107 .... 090 .... 3.2
rickylovesuall ............... 5.5 .... 14.5 .... -4.5 .... 100 .... 115 .... 8.0
traecy.1 ...................... 5.5 .... 15.1 .... -5.5 .... 100 .... 090 .... 4.0
omicron ...................... 5.3 .... 14.5 .... -6.0 .... 100 .... 100 .... 3.0
Pauldry ....................... 5.2 .... 13.9 .... -6.0 .... 108 .... 109 .... 5.2
200motels ................... 5.2 .... 15.8 .... -7.6 .... 088 .... 122 .... 6.2
talkabout ..................... 5.2 .... 14.7 .... -6.7 .... 090 .... 100 .... 3.0
john mac (-15) ............. 5.2 .... 14.6 .... -5.4 .... 110 .... 094 .... 2.4
E. Fudd ........................ 5.2 .... 10.7 .... -6.6 .... 056 .... 043 .... 6.0
waterways ................... 5.0 .... 14.0 .... -7.3 .... 100 .... 110 .... 4.3
Jerry Seinfeld ............... 5.0 .... 15.0 .... -6.0 .... 100 .... 100 .... 6.0
harps .......................... 4.9 .... 14.4 .... -7.4 .... 090 .... 090 .... 3.1

Con Sensus ................. 4.9 .... 14.1 .... -6.5 .... 090 .... 099 .... 4.2

homolumo ................... 4.9 .... 12.9 .... -7.3 .... 091 .... 099 .... 2.0
jambofc ...................... 4.9 .... 11.8 .... -4.8 .... 090 .... 115 .... 5.5
DOCARCH ................... 4.8 .... 15.8 .... -6.3 .... 110 .... 095 .... 4.2
Tae laidir ..................... 4.8 .... 12.9 .... -7.0 .... 108 .... 096 .... 1.9
cherryghost ................. 4.6 .... 15.5 .... -6.2 .... 090 .... 120 .... 4.0
jd ............................... 4.6 .... 13.7 .... -8.1 .... 095 .... 097 .... 4.8
dasa29 ........................ 4.5 .... 13.0 .... -7.0 .... 110 .... 100 .... 5.0
delw ........................... 4.3 .... 10.3 .... -7.2 .... 090 .... 093 .... 3.5
Deank ......................... 4.2 .... 13.4 .. -14.6 .... 059 .... 028 .... 3.6
Jpmarn ........................ 4.2 .... 10.8 .... -4.5 .... 078 .... 130 .... 5.2
nabber ........................ 4.1 .... 13.2 .... -9.5 .... 079 .... 108 .... 7.8
mickger844posts .......... 4.1 .... 13.6 .... -5.8 .... 079 .... 110 .... 4.0
okla (-5) ...................... 4.1 .... 15.2 .... -6.9 .... 105 .... 095 .... 2.6
snowstreams ................ 3.8 .... 14.3 .... -8.7 .... 087 .... 110 .... 6.0
baraca ......................... 3.7 .... 16.4 .... -8.5 .... 082 .... 123 .... 8.7
dacogawa .................... 3.7 .... 13.8 .... -8.2 .... 089 .... 125 .... 2.1
H2U.MrsRobinson ......... 3.3 .... 11.4 .... -4.9 .... 089 .... 092 .... 6.4
Bejubby ...................... 3.0 .... 13.6 .... -6.0 .... 110 .... 075 .... 6.0
Joe Public .................... 2.9 .... 13.9 .... -7.9 .... 079 .... 129 .... 4.9
Rebelbrowser (-20) ....... 2.9 .... 12.0 .... -9.7 .... 077 .... 088 .... 4.3
M.T. Cranium ............... 2.7 .... 12.0 .... -8.9 .... 080 .... 115 .... 3.5
________________________________________

Penalty points are with name of forecaster, entries are still accepted until penalty reaches 100. As of now it stands at 20, will be 25 after 0300h and 30 after 1500h Monday, etc ...

Consensus of 40 forecasts is for a slightly colder than average month with near normal precip and sunshine. There is about a 50-50 split evident about the possibility of a later warm spell, judging by the max forecasts. Most foresee a partly cloudy day on the 14th, almost nobody went very low -- confirmed with Mindgame that his entry means 1.2 hours.

Speak Now

Did you miss my entry M.T??

M.T. Cranium

Sorry there JS, I had a quick look through the thread and forgot there was one entry the old way. Fixed now.

Speak Now

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

5.0 ..... 15.0 ..... -6.0 .... 100% ..... 100% ..... 6 hours

Here!

M.T. Cranium

The IMT is on 5.1 C after eight days and probably 5.2 now (it was 5.14 so not hard to nudge upward). While this may not mean a lot, the two-week output from the GFS appears to average closer to 3.5 or 4, so we could be at a peak unless the end of the month is very mild.

The rainfall (precip) had been running a bit below pace but hardly worth giving a percentage with two rather wet days ahead. Somewhere around 70% right now.

Sunshine has started out a bit above normal like in January (and we all know how that turned out).

I saw a minimum of -3.6 C at Casement early on, and have not spotted anything too likely to be a monthly max although you never know, there are very few obvious days where 11+ will be recorded after today on model runs.

pauldry

think it was 12.3c in oak park on 13 feb

Rikand

What a gorgeous day today it is! Gonna be maximum sunshine hours from somewhere surely!

pauldry

Id say there was around 7 hours of sun somewhere. Who knows. There was mainly fair weather everywhere but us in Sligo of course got the most cloud as always. Around 2 to 3 hours sun here today and major windchill

M.T. Cranium

Shannon so far the highest at 7.8 hours, and this means that scoring is already "a done deal" even if some other station comes in higher, only two guesses (at a quick glance) were higher than 7.8 (baraca, rickylovesuall), and one more from "nabber" right on the money, no scores closer to 7.8 than the two higher ones, so scores will be in groups of four in the same order as the predictions, even if we get a higher value.

(later data ... no station beat that 7.8 hours, two others had 7.0)