Supreme Novices

ste2010

My head is wrecked analyzing this so I am dying to hear people's angles on the race. Ive pretty much analysed this race to death!!! Of all of them I fancy puffin billy but he's going to head to the Neptune based on the sounds we are hearing. Here is my short list, given there maybe some surprises over the next few weeks I'm not stupid either and will revise accordingly.

Puffin Billy -
could be Neptune bound. Serious stand out form based on all his races. His breeding is savage on both his sires and dams side. just have a look at his sister :-) he could could lack the big field experience but really and truly looks to be a machine.
Dodging bullets -
hardy type, experience in big fields and better company than he'll meet in march, Cheltenham form including a very impressive triumph last year. This time ruby will be aboard his price is standout at the moment at 14's Can't see him out of the frame though we may well have seen the same dodging bullets that we will see in march..maybe no further scope for improvement
River Maigue -
his form alone is standing out..1st time over hurdles getting that close to dodging bullets, its enough for me given you'd expect he'll come on a whole load for that run..he showed this in his win against NYE.
Jezki - I don't need to write much here OR DO I..Geraghty has rode RM, PB and jezki..we've heard enough on his thoughts on Jezki..I have no doubt he'd be on him ahead of the other 2 given his comments on the horse. You look at his form and he looks rock solid..BUT he has improved for every race he ran so far this year is there any more room for improvement??? He is already shy a few lbs of an average supreme winner..you'd expect he'd need to improve to actually win the supreme..his leoparstown run was incredible..he took of like a Bugatti Veron and left nothing but tumbleweed blowing in his trail..
Jessie H says he'll be better on good BUT isnt this just like she said steps to freedom was a banker for the supreme and will be better horse on G last year..I don't believe it.
Another negative I won't be disregarding that alot of people will. His form at Cheltenham...he was certainly there abouts on the turn in but just faded towards the end. his form on GS and G which includes his bumper run in Cheltenham doesn't scream good ground horse at you..
Don't get me wrong all his races he looks like the selection but at his price..there is a smell of Dunguib, cousin Vinny, binocular and paddy power offers to me
To keep some forum posters satisfied on here I will leave a reserve on Un Atout..he has looked extremely impressive in his runs over hurdles this year but I want to see him again before I make any further judgement on him. My initial thoughts are his experience is minimal..he's ran in small enough fields or when he ran in considerable field with little competition. No good ground form however being a RDC horse I don't see it being a problem.

Anyway interested on hearing others angles..at the moment PB and RM appeal as a winner to me the most but DB will for price reasons be in my each way accumulator.

Hulk Hands

I don't think Un Atout should be mentioned as an afterthought. Given the trainer, connections, performances on track and just general hype, he deserves to be second favourite after Jezki. I'd rather take the chance on Un Atout being a superstar than chance Dodging Bullets modest form being good enough.

Dodging Bullets is a nice horse, but although he was inexperienced in last years triumph, he could only manage 4th (should have been 5th) in what looks like the weakest Triumph in years. He got the job done but wasn't spectacular at Cheltenham earlier this year. While I think he might place, I think something very classy will come from the race this year.

I fancy New Years Eve to turn around the form with River Maigue once he gets decent ground.

Jezki looks brilliant. Only slight worry is his run in the Champion Bumper. Still, he looks to have got much stronger as the year has gone on, even since he was all out to beat Ally Cascade in a maiden hurdle. Clearly very good and a very worthy favourite

the groutch

one add to the mix imo is Pique Sous
3rd in the Champion Bumper last year, had a couple of runs over hurdles (winning comfortably at the 2nd time of asking), was put away for the winter because he needs good ground and might even go to Cheltenham without a prep, at 25/1 is an e/w punt.

superfurry1

I'm gonna stick my neck out and go for waaheb, Not too far behind jezki last time out and was travelling very strongly for a long way. Not sure about the ground but if taking to good will be a great price at 16-1. Just looking at Mytentoryours Who McCoy will most likely be riding the form looks rock solid at 8-1 would have to change my mind and go for this instead. Maybe a forecast ha

RichieLawlor

Geraghty won't be riding Jeski, he will be on River Maigue if it turns up

ste2010

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Geraghty won't be riding Jeski, he will be on River Maigue if it turns up

Yep that's right..I was saying essentially he has rode 3 of them and before sheikh McManus bought him that that's who he was probably going to ride!
I note alot of people suggesting mcoy will be on MTOY..any idea why?? Surely he'll be on the fav

RichieLawlor

ste2010 wrote: »

Yep that's right..I was saying essentially he has rode 3 of them and before sheikh McManus bought him that that's who he was probably going to ride!
I note alot of people suggesting mcoy will be on MTOY..any idea why?? Surely he'll be on the fav

You missed my point. Even if JP had not bought him Geraghty wouldn't be riding. Perhaps if Henderson had no runner he might have let Barry off but when he has the 2nd fav then 0% chance Barry would be riding Jeski no matter who owned him

kiers47

1 thing is for sure about the supreme.. McCoy will Definitely ride Jezki!!

Slattsy

Jezki for me too.
Could be banker material.

Panrich

RichieLawlor wrote: »

You missed my point. Even if JP had not bought him Geraghty wouldn't be riding. Perhaps if Henderson had no runner he might have let Barry off but when he has the 2nd fav then 0% chance Barry would be riding Jeski no matter who owned him

You're both saying essentially the same thing. The horse he will ride is not necessarily the one he thinks has the best chance.

Johner

Slattsy wrote: »

Jezki for me too.
Could be banker material.

There is always a banker in the supreme. And it never wins. :pac:

I have Puffin Billy backed at big prices but with him more than likely going for the Neptune I'll have to have a look again.

Slattsy

Johner wrote: »

There is always a banker in the supreme. And it never wins. :pac:

I have Puffin Billy backed at big prices but with him more than likely going for the Neptune I'll have to have a look again.

True. He's not as short a price as a lot of the other beaten favs over the years He's still widely available at 7/2. Could easily be 4/1 on the day. Depends if JP steams in though.
Jezki seems to have all the Irish horses covered. And to date, there's been no English trained runner that stands out.

I've it at 6/1 (x2) so im quite content with that. I can relax.

the groutch

Slattsy wrote: »

Jezki for me too.
Could be banker material.

wouldnt call any supreme novice favorite a banker considering the last fav to win it was Brave Inca

UrbanSea

I usually find the SN makes little betting appeal, Jezki clearly has the best form but going from small field races in Ireland to this race is a big jump. Will probably just watch again this year

Slattsy

the groutch wrote: »

wouldnt call any supreme novice favorite a banker considering the last fav to win it was Brave Inca

And i backed him too :pac:

premierstone

RichieLawlessness wrote: »

I usually find the SN makes little betting appeal, Jezki clearly has the best form but going from small field races in Ireland to this race is a big jump. Will probably just watch again this year

Ah here how can you not have a bet in the Supreme, you dissapoint me Urban, or whatever your name is, the roar when the tape goes up and the hairs stand on the back of your neck for the Supreme is the highlight of the year, don't think it would quite be the same if I wasn't throwing a docket in the bin ten minutes later - Montelado (first horse I ever backed), Like a Butterfly and Brave Inca aside.

ste2010

RichieLawlessness wrote: »

I usually find the SN makes little betting appeal, Jezki clearly has the best form but going from small field races in Ireland to this race is a big jump. Will probably just watch again this year

Come on Urban it's the biggest challenge nearly of all the races picking the winner!!! You have to love that!

ste2010

the groutch wrote: »

one add to the mix imo is Pique Sous
3rd in the Champion Bumper last year, had a couple of runs over hurdles (winning comfortably at the 2nd time of asking), was put away for the winter because he needs good ground and might even go to Cheltenham without a prep, at 25/1 is an e/w punt.

I thought of pique sous and there's no doubting he put up a great performance in the bumper last year (which looks full of form). I'd need to see him run again before I commit. His overall form isn't great outside of that race but in comparison to his price he's certainly looks like value

klairondavis

Has there been any quotes from Weld/Berry regarding Waaheb?

I really like the horse and think he will give Jezki a much closer race at Cheltenham but he has been weak on Betfair recently.

tipster

un atout for me if he runs to beat jezki and river maigue

faoile@n

klairondavis wrote: »

Has there been any quotes from Weld/Berry regarding Waaheb?

I really like the horse and think he will give Jezki a much closer race at Cheltenham but he has been weak on Betfair recently.

Reportedly going up in trip.

McManus already has Jezki & My Tent or yours in the Supreme so might make sense to send him to the Neptune if he stays.

The Deloitte over 2m2f would seem like the obvious target.

klairondavis

faoile@n wrote: »

Reportedly going up in trip.

McManus already has Jezki & My Tent or yours in the Supreme so might make sense to send him to the Neptune if he stays.

The Deloitte over 2m2f would seem like the obvious target.

I'm biased because I have an antepost investment but I think that would be a crazy decision by connections. He has never looked like he needs further and his breeding hardly screams stamina - Elusive Quality out of a Lahib mare. I think My Tent Or Yours might end up in the County Hurdle.

faoile@n

klairondavis wrote: »

I'm biased because I have an antepost investment but I think that would be a crazy decision by connections. He has never looked like he needs further and his breeding hardly screams stamina - Elusive Quality out of a Lahib mare. I think My Tent Or Yours might end up in the County Hurdle.

Only my opinion but to me My Tent Or Yours is definitely bound for the Supreme and I reckon McCoy will ride him over Jezki. If he wins the betfair hurdle (same route as Darlan) he'll have no choice but to go to the Supreme.

I looked at Waahebs pedigree and while it doesn't scream stamina any horse who wins 3 bumpers on sofy/heavy Irish ground and only narrowly losing to Lovethehigherlaw in the punchestown champion bumper would normally have to stay well enough.

As I said the Deliotte over 2m2f is the next logical target and could dictate where they send him.

How about Waahed for the County?

Hoofer

premierstone wrote: »

Ah here how can you not have a bet in the Supreme, you dissapoint me Urban, or whatever your name is, the roar when the tape goes up and the hairs stand on the back of your neck for the Supreme is the highlight of the year, don't think it would quite be the same if I wasn't throwing a docket in the bin ten minutes later - Montelado (first horse I ever backed), Like a Butterfly and Brave Inca aside.

i totally agree premier stone.....one of my favourite races of the whole nh racing calendar not alone chelters..traditionally it was always the irish banker kind of race to get us off to a flyer but usually another irish horse would win..i think we all remember when its" back in front for Irrrrrrrrrrrrreland" was swinging off the home turn pulling double and went up the hill to beat kicking king by 10 lengths..brilliant....it has a great tradition and many good horses have won it in the past..there is nothing better than seeing an irish horse pulling double coming down the hill and then kick on especially in the supreme novices and especially when your on it:)...rooster booster showed the boys how to do it when he won the champion hudle..that was unreal...this race actually always makes me very nervous just before the off and my hairs stand up on more places than my neck and hopefully this year will too, hence i always get in a few brandys just before the roar:D

superfurry1

Was really taken with MTOY's last run absolutely sluiced in with Mcoy looking like he was planning what he was not having for dinner.:D

Pinesky

I'm interested in Melodic Rendezvous recent winner of the Tolworth . Of Past winners of the Tolworth 6 of the last 16 have gone on to win at the Festival 2 each in the Supreme & Neptune , this makes the Tolworth second only to the Deloitte as a Festival pointer. Melodic holds an entry for the Deloitte. His 2nd to Champagne Fever at Punchestown on atrocious ground puts him well up in the rankings of last year's bumper horses . He's by Where or When out of an Old Vic mare presumably better ground should be a plus. From a Small stable with a lower profile jockey he would surely be lower than 14/1 if from more well know connections .

Hulk Hands

My tent or yours is a bridle mongrel. He was badly exposed in the race he got beaten in a few weeks back. He's very underpriced at 10's. I hope McCoy does indeed ride him so that he starts 5's and becomes a terrific lay

rossom

Un Atout has to be the most ridiculously underpriced horse in this race at as short to 6/1. Fair enough he has been imperious in both his hurdles wins to date but the opposition was next to nothing and wouldn't be anywhere near good enough to compete at any race in the Festival, let alone win one. The second favourite for the Supreme has yet to compete in a Graded race. Madness

That is not to say I don't think he can or won't win and did in fact back him at 20/1 before his last race knowing that, given he looks Gigginstown's only representative, he would shorten drastically and he was the perfect back to lay horse. But I think people need their heads examined if they want to back him at his current price.

Overthelast

The only thing putting me off jeski is your relying on the trainers skill getting him to peak for the middle of March. He seemed quite forward the other day at Leopardstown. Comparisions to Steps to Freedom last year have been made - put away after Nov & prep'd for the festival - its a valid concern - while his form is undoubtably better so far, I just don't know. They'll have to let him down now for a few weeks & then ramp up his training again for Cheltenham - will he come back as sharp as he looked at Leopardstown and peak mid March? I'd be a little concerned. If he does, hats off to the trainer & the horse - it would be some feat.

The best horses are usually primed to peak at the Festival. For the above reason, I'll take on the favourite. JP just purchased jeski so I've put a line through Waheeb. Don't have a strong view on the others yet but I'm going to have a closer look at Puffin Billy.

Slattsy

Overthelast wrote: »

The only thing putting me off jeski is your relying on the trainers skill getting him to peak for the middle of March. He seemed quite forward the other day at Leopardstown. Comparisions to Steps to Freedom last year have been made - put away after Nov & prep'd for the festival - its a valid concern - while his form is undoubtably better so far, I just don't know. They'll have to let him down now for a few weeks & then ramp up his training again for Cheltenham - will he come back as sharp as he looked at Leopardstown and peak mid March? I'd be a little concerned. If he does, hats off to the trainer & the horse - it would be some feat.

The best horses are usually primed to peak at the Festival. For the above reason, I'll take on the favourite. JP just purchased jeski so I've put a line through Waheeb. Don't have a strong view on the others yet but I'm going to have a closer look at Puffin Billy.

Its almost a certainty he'll go for the longer race.

Overthelast

Slattsy wrote: »

Its almost a certainty he'll go for the longer race.

Rp site reports Sherwood leaning towards supreme for Puffin Billy. Watched his races. He has looked mighty impressive so far and I'd be siding with him at this early stage. I suppose a few more will come into the reckoning within the next 3 weeks or so.

Slattsy

Overthelast wrote: »

Rp site reports Sherwood leaning towards supreme for Puffin Billy. Watched his races. He has looked mighty impressive so far and I'd be siding with him at this early stage. I suppose a few more will come into the reckoning within the next 3 weeks or so.

Yeah seen that this morning. Sherwood certainly was leaning that way lately. If its soft he'll go for the Supreme. I wouldnt have it for the Supreme myself.

ste2010

Slattsy wrote: »

Yeah seen that this morning. Sherwood certainly was leaning that way lately. If its soft he'll go for the Supreme. I wouldnt have it for the Supreme myself.

That's because you've backed jezki.. :-)
If I was sure puffin billy was going for the supreme I would be all over it..I've already expressed my jezki doubts :-)

Slattsy

ste2010 wrote: »

That's because you've backed jezki.. :-)
If I was sure puffin billy was going for the supreme I would be all over it..I've already expressed my jezki doubts :-)

I can still look at it objectively
I do like the horse, and he was on my mind as a bet in the Neptune.
Taking a chance backing him though, hard to gauge his form.

ste2010

Slattsy wrote: »

I can still look at it objectively
I do like the horse, and he was on my mind as a bet in the Neptune.
Taking a chance backing him though, hard to gauge his form.

Up to something is the marker for me. He hasn't even been flinched from the bridle yet . The fact they expect him to get the longer distance for me is another reason they should head for the supreme. The supreme goes off at a pace only described as lunacy!!

Slattsy

ste2010 wrote: »

Up to something is the marker for me. He hasn't even been flinched from the bridle yet . The fact they expect him to get the longer distance for me is another reason they should head for the supreme. The supreme goes off at a pace only described as lunacy!!

Same could be said about Simonsig last year, but he went for the longer one.

He's won his races really well, i just have no idea how to rate the form.

rossom

It looks as if Pont Alexandre has scared off Puffin Billy running in the Neptune, and it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if others followed suit as PA looks potentially quite special. I think Henry De Bromhead sums it up quite well

"Delighted with Sizing Gold there today. He's improving all the time and was just unlucky to bump into what looks an outstanding novice.

He'll more than likely have entries in both staying novice races at Cheltenham and we might go for whichever one today's winner doesn't!!"

Overthelast

Puffin Billy stuffed today. Looking back, he probably lacked a real turn of foot to win a supreme so I have to scratch him from my list.

shy-tall-knight

Mullins seems to be leaning towards the Supreme with Champagne Fever. Think he has a great chance and I'd be pretty confident he can turn around the form with Jezki. Super price at the moment.

ste2010

yeh I thought the same myself regarding champagne fever. he would be a nice front runner for the supreme and will have no problem getting upo the hill. Id say hed want good to soft to be in with a chance.

Puffin Billy finished the race lame..if he finshed the race lame could you rule that as a good performance or not?

Overthelast

ste2010 wrote: »

Puffin Billy finished the race lame..if he finshed the race lame could you rule that as a good performance or not?

If he was lame then that would perhaps excuse the run. But then if he's lame 1 month before the festival, do you want to be backing him on the Tuesday? Bit of a risk but there's plenty time left for him to recover. I'm trying to focus on something with a good kick of speed/turn of foot (outside the top two in the market, who obviously have displayed that trait). I thought Puffin Billy was going to carry a few schillings for me in the first race but I'm kind of wary of him after that race.

eljoker

I still fancy jezki and Ap has picked the wrong one in this race before(2008 Captain cee bee/binocluar). Jezki looks rock solid and the form is solid too.

El Ninotorres

Was very keen on Un Atout before the weekend. Now I think I'm back to square one. Melodic Rendezvous looks decent and hard to know where Champagne Fever is really at. Couldn't see myself backing My Tent @ 2/1 though.

Slattsy

Im not worried about My Tent or Yours.
He won a handicap well, but what did he beat really?

Jezki has Grade 1 form in the book, and its been franked.

If McCoy ride MTOY i wonder who'll get the Jezki ride, will Mark Walsh come over or will Harrington insist on Power.

El Ninotorres

Slattsy wrote: »

Im not worried about My Tent or Yours.
He won a handicap well, but what did he beat really?

Jezki has Grade 1 form in the book, and its been franked.

If McCoy ride MTOY i wonder who'll get the Jezki ride, will Mark Walsh come over or will Harrington insist on Power.

Does anyone give rule the world a chance at all?

Arctic89

Slattsy wrote: »

Im not worried about My Tent or Yours.
He won a handicap well, but what did he beat really?

Jezki has Grade 1 form in the book, and its been franked.

If McCoy ride MTOY i wonder who'll get the Jezki ride, will Mark Walsh come over or will Harrington insist on Power.

Completely agree on this, really don't think MTOY will be this year's winner. He was impressive Saturday but didn't have to come off the bridle. I'd be shocked if any horse can win a supreme on the bridle.

Jezki on the other hand has shown a very impressive turn of foot when let off the bridle and has comfortably beaten everything put in front of him. As you've said above, the form has also been franked.

Add to this MTOY's inconsistency and the likelihood that the public will wade in on the opening race of the festival and I think Jezki is becoming seriously appealing. Not going to get involved until the morning of the race either way but I'm getting excited about the prices that might be available , especially with the English bookies.

Also think Robbie Power will get the ride unless something happens River Maigue, then Geraghty will get it.

droidman123

shy-tall-knight wrote: »

Mullins seems to be leaning towards the Supreme with Champagne Fever. Think he has a great chance and I'd be pretty confident he can turn around the form with Jezki. Super price at the moment.

Be careful with your bets if you are doing antepost on c.f. mullins said he hasnt decided if cf is going in the supreme,he said cf stays well so there are options of other races over further at the festival for him.

UrbanSea

Arctic89 wrote: »

Completely agree on this, really don't think MTOY will be this year's winner. He was impressive Saturday but didn't have to come off the bridle. I'd be shocked if any horse can win a supreme on the bridle.

Jezki on the other hand has shown a very impressive turn of foot when let off the bridle and has comfortably beaten everything put in front of him. As you've said above, the form has also been franked.

Add to this MTOY's inconsistency and the likelihood that the public will wade in on the opening race of the festival and I think Jezki is becoming seriously appealing. Not going to get involved until the morning of the race either way but I'm getting excited about the prices that might be available , especially with the English bookies.

Also think Robbie Power will get the ride unless something happens River Maigue, then Geraghty will get it.

Not quite sure how you could call a horse ''inconsistent'' who is yet to finish out of the first two.


Just realised I've been calling that horse River Maguire all this time. Lol

eljoker

It's turning into HOT race and thats how you should start cheltenham. I don't know about anyone else but i know i've been googling my ante post horses for cheltenham as the nerves are kicking in. Sprint sacre at 11/10 sir des champ 6/1 and dawn approach unchanged at 7/2. Roll on the supreme in what has to be the best days racing of the week

SRFC

MTOY's did not just win any handicap,he won a betfair of 149 on the bridle



His rating for that will be 160 I think,he's going into the supreme with the highest rating ever and a higher rating than horses get for winning the supreme,the thing is an absolute aeroplane and will only get better with a bit better ground and a strong pace to say your not worried about it is crazy how anyone couldnt be impressed with that run I dunno.

UrbanSea

Wouldn't be surprised to see more than an 11 pound rise SRFC for the way he did that, but even at that it's a crazily high mark for a novice.


Can anyone tell me what the highest rating a novice has achieved is