Match Thread: Exeter Chiefs vs Leinster Rugby, Saturday 19th Jan 6pm, Sky Sports 3

molloyjh

Down To The Wire

And so it comes down to this, the final round of pool games, to decide Leinsters fate in this years Heineken Cup. It's been a difficult couple of months for all concerned in Leinster; players, coaches and supporters. They could be only the second team in the history of the competition to go out in the pool stages as reigning champions. And even if they get the try bonus point win on Saturday this may not be enough to ensure they qualify for the knock-out stages. Leinster will be looking for other games in other pools to go their way also.

However for all of this it must be remembered that Leinster have suffered a fairly significant injury crisis this season which, combined with the player welfare programme, has disrupted their season massively and prevented the building of any real sort of momentum. Yet they are still in the hunt in both the league and the cup. Could Leinster fans really ask for much more given the context of the season?

So how do Leinster want this weekend to go? Because we need to look at the weekend as a whole rather than just the game in Sandy Park. Currently there are 4 pools capable of producing runner-ups on 20 points or more.

Pool 1:
Munster can get 20 by getting the TBP win over Racing in Thomond Park. You'd have to fancy that even considering Munsters current form as Racing are missing a number of their first string players, be it through injury, suspension or exclusion from the squad. Racing have nothing left to play for really and have said they will be using it to get their preparation right for the Top14 next week.

Pool 2:
Both Leicester and Toulouse could mathematically qualify as a runner-up on 20 points. For this to happen either Leicester must win with the TBP and Toulouse get both the LBP and the TBP or alternatively Leicester win without the TBP and Toulouse get the LBP and TBP. In the first instance Toulouse will be the runner-up and in the second Leicester would be.

Pool 5:
Leinster can reach 20 points with a TBP win over Exeter.

Pool 6:
Montpellier can reach up to 23 points with a TBP win over Toulon, but should Toulon win that game Montpellier could still make 20 points by getting the LBP and the TBP.

Leinster must get the TBP win in Exeter. There can be no doubt about that. To catch the like of Leicester, Toulouse and Montpellier on try count though they would need to score between 6 and 8 more tries than those sides score this weekend. That will mean a minimum of 10-12 tries. It's fair to say that this is too big an ask. So In Pools 2 and 6 Leinster only real hope is for a low (try) scoring Toulon win and a Toulouse victory. Leinster can catch Munster on tries scored by scoring 2 more than them. However this is a big enough ask in and of itself as it would realistically require Leinster to score at least 6 tries if not more against an Exeter side that don't often concede more than 2 or 3 tries at home.

Ideal results:

1. Montpellier to lose and only get a max of 1 point from the game
2. Leinster to get the TBP and 4 tries only :eek:
3. Munster to win with the TBP :eek:
4. Toulouse to beat Leicester

The Leinster and Munster results there may surprise some, but ideally we want to qualify and seed 8th. That would most likely see us away to Quins. Seed 7th and we would be away to Toulon based on the above results. If Toulon lose then Leinster will need to score as many tries as possible to stand any chance of qualifying.

So that's the scene set.....finally. Just the small matter of the game to deal with now! We all know that Exeter are no walk in the park. They are not going to lie down and let us march in for 15 tries. Getting 4 tries alone will be a tough enough objective. The one weakness they have shown has been in the final 20. With little depth and being relatively new to games at this level they struggle to last the full 80 against strong opposition. Looking at both of their games against Clermont it has been the second half where Clermont did most of the damage on the scoreboard. So if Leinster are only 1 or 2 tries to the good come 60 minutes I would still be hopeful of them finishing the job. Patience is required here. To that end I'm somewhat surprised that VDM hasn't started with Healy to come on at half time to run at a tiring Exeter defence. The return of both Strauss and McLaughlin are very welcome returns indeed and mean that we can bring Cronin and Jenno on in the second half to up the tempo along with Isaac Boos, whose form of late has been very good.

In fact for possibly the first time this season we can look at the Leinster bench and see the impact the players could have. Fergus McFadden is unlucky to drop to the bench but with Drico possibly not 100% and given McFaddens versatility it is the logical choice. Leinster will be looking for SOB to continue on the way he was playing against Edinburgh, which seemed to marry the carrying skills he posseses with the breakdown skills better than ever.

For all the tension and nervousness if anything this situation just proves how great a competition the HEC currently is. And as ak said previously:

.ak wrote: »

I think the odds are against us, and realistically we shouldn't get a bonus point win. However, we shouldn't have turned the stoop into a second Dublin. We shouldn't have routed a European dominant Munster in Croke park after losing our first choice fly half. We shouldnt have out muscled english powerhouse leicester in the final like that. We shouldn't have been able to fightght back from a 22–6 half-time deficit in Cardiff after qualifying from the pool of death and meeting leciester and toulouse along the way. We shouldn't have been able to go on from that undefeated through an entire season and claim a third title in four seasons after a semi final in Bordeaux which was won by inches.

We shouldn't qualify from the pool stages after a rake of injuries, inconsistent team sheets and two tight fought defeats to Clermont in the pool stages.

We shouldn't, but if any team can, it's this Leinster team.

It's Heinken cup weekend, and anything can happen.

I'm cautiously optimistic about our chances this weekend. Like ak I believe.

COME ON LEINSTER!

|

15: Rob Kearney|15: Luke Arscott
14: Isa Nacewa|14: Ian Whitten
13: Brian O'Driscoll|13: Sireli Naqelevuki
12: Gordon D'Arcy|12: Jason Shoemark
11: Luke Fitzgerald|11: Matt Jess
10: Jonathan Sexton|10: Gareth Steenson
9: Eoin Reddan|9: Kevin Barrett
1: Cian Healy|1: Ben Moon
2: Richardt Strauss|2: Neil Clark
3: Mike Ross|3: Hoani Tui
4: Leo Cullen CAPTAIN|4: Tom Hayes CAPTAIN
5: Devin Toner|5: Dean Mumm
6: Kevin McLaughlin|6: Tom Johnson
7: Sean O'Brien|7: James Scaysbrook
8: Jamie Heaslip|8: Richard Baxter
|
16: Sean Cronin|16: Jack Yeandle
17: Heinke van der Merwe|17: Carl Rimmer
18: Michael Bent|18: Craig Mitchell
19: Rhys Ruddock|19: James Hanks
20: Shane Jennings|20: Ben White
21: Isaac Boss|21: Will Chudley
22: Ian Madigan|22: Ignacio Mieres
23: Fergus McFadden|23: Nick Sestaret

irishbucsfan

Ha!

totallegend

Paddy Power have us as 1/5 favourties and as -9 on the handicap (10/11).

Still only at 5/4 to qualify for the quarterfinals though.

durkadurka

5/4 looking like good value now that Toulon have named a good team.

molloyjh

totallegend wrote: »

Paddy Power have us as 1/5 favourties and as -9 on the handicap (10/11).

Still only at 5/4 to qualify for the quarterfinals though.

We'll know more after the Toulon game. I don't see Pool 2 producing a runner-up on 20 and with Munster playing on Sunday they'll know exactly what they'll need to do. We probably won't get more than 4 (if we even get that!) and if Toulon win I reckon we're in trouble.

funtime93

molloyjh wrote: »

We'll know more after the Toulon game. I don't see Pool 2 producing a runner-up on 20 and with Munster playing on Sunday they'll know exactly what they'll need to do. We probably won't get more than 4 (if we even get that!) and if Toulon win I reckon we're in trouble.

Surely you mean Montpellier?

molloyjh

funtime93 wrote: »

Surely you mean Montpellier?

Sorry yes I mean Montpellier. I've been looking at this stuff for far too long.

Teferi

Nice re/preview.

Throw in ak's full quote. It's a good one!

justsomebloke

Truthfully the one thing I hope we bring this week that we didn't last week is a calm head. Desperation rugby especially away is never a good thing

SebBerkovich

It's nice that we've got a first choice team going. I'm thinkin' that could make all the difference. I remain perhaps undauntedly optimistic about it

.ak

Interesting pick of Reddan, obviously a sign of intent that we're going to put the tempo on them, but when his delivery is off it stifles the attack imo, and his delivery hasn't been as crisp as it was for the past couple of seasons. I'd have picked Boss. He's been very speedy around the fringes lately. However, should Reddan have a good game then I think we could put some serious hurt on Exeter.

barrabus

http://weather.yahoo.com/united-kingdom/england/exeter-19792/#toggle


Harsh conditions rarely lead to a try fest..

P_1

I like the gamechanging option of bringing Jennings/Boss on for McLaughlin/Reddan after about 60 mins.

Hopefully the gamechanging option we'll be needing after 60 is turning the screw and bringing our try count from 3/4 up to 6/8

SebBerkovich

.ak wrote: »

Interesting pick of Reddan, obviously a sign of intent that we're going to put the tempo on them, but when his delivery is off it stifles the attack imo, and his delivery hasn't been as crisp as it was for the past couple of seasons. I'd have picked Boss. He's been very speedy around the fringes lately. However, should Reddan have a good game then I think we could put some serious hurt on Exeter.

I like Reddan, he's a good player, but he can be very predictable. i would have thought the having boss on would give the team a few more options around the fringes, as well as a more solid defense.

molloyjh

justsomebloke wrote: »

Truthfully the one thing I hope we bring this week that we didn't last week is a calm head. Desperation rugby especially away is never a good thing

Exactly. As long as we're there or thereabouts with 20 to go we should have too much in the tank for them in the last quarter, especially with that bench. The lads out there need to remember that in the first 40 particularly.

monkeybutter

The Racing Team sheet aint good news for Leinster

molloyjh

monkeybutter wrote: »

The Racing Team sheet aint good news for Leinster

I don't think we could have depended on that game anyway. As soon as they lost to Sarries that pool became a slightly foregone conclusion. It's all about Toulon.

.ak

Great choice of pic for the write up - very apt considering Jamie's new role with Ireland.

totallegend

molloyjh wrote: »

I don't think we could have depended on that game anyway. As soon as they lost to Sarries that pool became a slightly foregone conclusion. It's all about Toulon.

In fairness, that Racing XV is actually good enough to put up something of a fight; whether they have any sort of motivation to do so is the real question.

So yeah, it's all down to Toulon (and Leinster, of course).

monkeybutter

molloyjh wrote: »

I don't think we could have depended on that game anyway. As soon as they lost to Sarries that pool became a slightly foregone conclusion. It's all about Toulon.

Yeah and if Montpelier win, it's a straight fight between munster and leinster for 8th spot.

No less important.

durkadurka

The Biarritz game tonight is of interest, hopefully no BP for them.
Ditto Northampton tomorrow Lunchtime.

That would open up the possibility of 19 points getting us in.

molloyjh

I'm going to go with my approach from last week. Look at the simplest thing first. Toulon winning. If that doesn't happen I'll figure the rest out on Saturday night. No point killing ourselves with permutations galore just yet.

durkadurka

molloyjh wrote: »

I'm going to go with my approach from last week. Look at the simplest thing first. Toulon winning. If that doesn't happen I'll figure the rest out on Saturday night. No point killing ourselves with permutations galore just yet.

Ah yeah, all I'm saying is they will remove themselves from the equation if they dont get BP wins.

molloyjh

durkadurka wrote: »

Ah yeah, all I'm saying is they will remove themselves from the equation if they dont get BP wins.

Yeah, would be great all right. But for feck sake I couldn't distinguish between Montpellier and Toulon earlier, I'd be in serious bother if I started doing all the possible outcomes. Part of me thinks I should avoid everything until Sunday night and then just look to see if we got through or not.

.ak

I wonder if many fans got over from their cancelled flights yesterday?

wicklowwonder

Can't wait for six. What's the weather/pitch like?

[Jackass]

We need 6+ tries.

Tox56

[Jackass] wrote: »

We need 6+ tries.

Hopefully they tell Sexton to hurry up with his conversions. Of course we need to win, but winning even with 4 or 5 tries probably won't be enough anyway

Superbus

How have permutations changed due to events in Montpellier?

wicklowwonder

Tox56 wrote: »

Hopefully they tell Sexton to hurry up with his conversions. Of course we need to win, but winning even with 4 or 5 tries probably won't be enough anyway

Drop kicks all round and turning down conversions....

We need a lot of tries its missin impossible, really needed a favour from Toulon.

techdiver

Leinster might as well through caution to the wind. They might as well loose if they don't get 5+ tries.

Fishooks13

If Leinster get the TBP I reckon some of the more passionate Leinster fans on the board would be willing to tog out for Racing tomorrow!

Fishooks13

techdiver wrote: »

Leinster might as well through caution to the wind. They might as well loose if they don't get 5+ tries.

No, they'll want to get into the Amlin

Tox56

Fishooks13 wrote: »

No, they'll want to get into the Amlin

I'm pretty sure we've already qualified for that?

Fishooks13

Tox56 wrote: »

I'm pretty sure we've already qualified for that?

I thought it was a win would guarantee qualification?

totallegend

It's gas how no-one has even considered the possibility of Edinburgh winning tomorrow.... They won't, but it's one more straw to clutch at.

errlloyd

Edinburgh winning is about as likely as leinster scoring 12

irishbucsfan

Fishooks13 wrote: »

I thought it was a win would guarantee qualification?

How many tries have Biarritz and Northampton scored?

totallegend

Fishooks13 wrote: »

I thought it was a win would guarantee qualification?

Either a losing bp OR scoring two tries regardless of result will see leinster into the Amlin

tolosenc

Fishooks13 wrote: »

I thought it was a win would guarantee qualification?

We need 1 point to be better than Biarritz.

7 tries should do us.

irishbucsfan

I wouldn't mind an Amlin QF against Wasps. I can get to that pretty easilly

tolosenc

irishbucsfan wrote: »

I wouldn't mind an Amlin QF against Wasps. I can get to that pretty easilly

You will have a Heineken QF in The Stoop, and you will like it.

techdiver

tolosenc wrote: »

We need 1 point to be better than Biarritz.

7 tries should do us.

We actually just need 2 tries to go ahead of Northampton. Even with a loss with no bonus point.

In short we should just go for it!

thomond2006

Pressure on now

Sandwlch

Fishooks13 wrote: »

No, they'll want to get into the Amlin

Oh the humiliation. I couldnt bear it. Just focus on the Pro 12 without Mickey Mouse distractions would be a better strategy.

thomond2006

Sandwlch wrote: »

Oh the humiliation. I couldnt bear it. Just focus on the Pro 12 without Mickey Mouse distractions would be a better strategy.

Connacht fans won't like that attitude!

The final is in Dublin, I'm sure Leinster will give 100% into the Amlin.

tribalwings

So without 7 tries we won't make the top 8?

Fishooks13

Sandwlch wrote: »

Oh the humiliation. I couldnt bear it. Just focus on the Pro 12 without Mickey Mouse distractions would be a better strategy.

terrible attitude

The Amlin is a very good competition. Far from a Mickey Mouse competition

totallegend

tribalwings wrote: »

So without 7 tries we won't make the top 8?

We have to score two more than Munster do tomorrow.

jamiedav2011

Just need to leave it all out there now.

Sandwlch

Fishooks13 wrote: »

terrible attitude

The Amlin is a very good competition. Far from a Mickey Mouse competition

For teams that didnt qualify for the HC. For teams that did, if you win the Amlin, it is like finishing 25th. Big Wow.