Champion Hurdle 2013

Slattsy

I thought i'd get the ball rolling and remove the chat out of some of the other threads and centre it here from now until the big race itself, hopefully.

Current market with Bet365:
Darlan 3/1
Hurricane Fly 7/2
Grandouet 7/1
Zarkandar 7/1
Rock on Ruby 9/1
Oscar Whiskey 12/1
Cinders and Ashes 16/1
Countrywide Flame 16/1
20/1 bar

A lot of talk is about HF underperforming last year, and if he's back to his best all he has to do is turn up to beat this lot. Personally, I think he's beatable and im of the opinion he needs soft ground to be at his best. Also, being flat bred its rare for these horses to keep their form year in year out as well as the NH horses do, so at 9 yrs young there's enough question marks (for me) to look elsewhere. Mullins sais he wasnt right last year and he seems back to his best. He probably is the horse to beat.

Darlan is the new favourite after bolting up on his seasonal bow at Kempton in the Christmas Hurdle. Connections felt he wouldnt handle the heavy ground and he may need to the race, so to win so easily was commendable. But is beating Raya Star CH form ? Both Countrywide Flame and Cinders & Ashes went into that race with better expected and it looks like neither ran to form. He'll definately be better on better ground too, as he was mighty impressive at Aintree last season. Is he the reason Simonsig was sent over fences this year Short enough at 3/1, but certainly has the potential to be a superstar.

Grandouet is next, and although i like the horse, he doesnt stay a yard over 2 miles so could be found out if the race turns into a slog, as we've already seen with Zarkandar outstaying him 3 times, there'll not be much between them this year. I'd be concerned that the likes of HF and Darlan will power up the hill better than him so he is vulnerable. If he's to win, Geraghty will need to be brave and hold onto him and produce him as late as possible. I think he'll love a bit of good ground too. Sure to place.

Zarkandar is a tough and admirable horse, loves a battle and seems to have improved from last year. If he's on the premises 2 out, he could be a danger to all as he'll stay and has plenty guts to keep going until the end. I'd never rule out a horse like this.

Rock on Ruby is a bit of a forgotten horse, even though he won it last year. He's only had the one run this year, behind Zarkandar and Grandouet, and although at the time it looked like a poor enough run, new trainer Harry Fry has stated he was delighted with it as ROR was nowhere near fit and he'll only be 100% on the day. People are making excuses for last years CH win, apparently EVERY single horse underperformed or had some sort of excuse... but to me i'll look at the race as i seen it, he won fair and square. I will concede that Overturn leading the way set it up for him, a guaranteed stayer, but that pace should have suited a lot of others in the race too ie HF who has won over further. I would however like to see ROR get another run into him before Cheltenham though.

Oscar Whiskey is next, but is unlikely to run unless the ground is very soft, with the World Hurdle a target, and also the chance he'l wait for the Aintree Hurdle that he's won previously. If both Henderson and Barry Geraghty share the opinion that OW doesnt have the speed for 2 miles on decent ground then why think otherwise. If you fancy him wait until closer the race as he'll no doubt be left in both.

I'd be very surprised if the winner came from outside those above. But stranger things have happened.

Chat away lads, chat away.

RichieLawlor

Cinders and Ashes

Darlan won a 5 furlong sprint at Christmas. Visually impressive but the form isn't worth a thing.

Huge overreaction, he's too short

premierstone

Grandouet

Slattsy wrote: »

Grandouet is next, and although i like the horse, he doesnt stay a yard over 2miles so could be found out if the race turns into a slog, as we've already seen with Zarkandar outstaying him 3 times

People are making excuses for last years CH win, apparently EVERY single horse underperformed or had some sort of excuse... but to me i'll look at the race as i seen it, he won fair and square. I will concede that Overturn leading the way set it up for him, a guaranteed stayer, but that pace should have suited a lot of others in the race too ie HF who has won over further.

Agree with alot of what you say Slattsy and a good write up, just a few little things I don't agree with though, Zarkandar has only outstayed Grandouet twice and the second time neither horse was race fit. He does however seem a bit of a Harchibald type.

Most of the excuses are valid for last year though and although not he's fault and did very well to take advantage of it, its very hard to imagine how it could ever fall into place so perfect for ROR again and actually if the race was run like that I think Zarkandar would be more likely. And with a better ride The Fly would also finish ahead of him.

With relation to this years winner otherwise known as The Fly the race was not run to suit last year as he's biggest attribute apart for he's majestic hurdling action is he's finishing kick and that was nullified last year. Good to Soft ground or even Soft as many predict at a reasonable championship pace and Darlan is the only one I see finishing within 6l of The Fly

Hulk Hands

Grandouet

I have Grandoeut down as 'sure to place' with his tendency to smack a hurdle. Also we can't talk about Darlan as a 3/1 shot when he's 4's nearly everywhere else.

Hurricane Fly is still the one for me. There are question marks as plenty have pointed out about whether he can be back to his best at age 9. You have to take that on faith, but i'd be more than happy to take 3/1 about that chance on the day. If he's at his best I really doubt there's one good enough to beat him

Hulk Hands

Zarkandar

Hulk Hands wrote: »

I have Grandoeut down as 'sure to place' with his tendency to smack a hurdle. Also we can't talk about Darlan as a 3/1 shot when he's 4's nearly everywhere else.

Hurricane Fly is still the one for me. There are question marks as plenty have pointed out about whether he can be back to his best at age 9. You have to take that on faith, but i'd be more than happy to take 3/1 about that chance on the day. If he's at his best I really doubt there's one good enough to beat him

The counter-argument:

• won a CH 2 years ago as a 7 year old
• wasn't good enough to win last year as an 8 year old (nobody was telling us before the race he wasn't himself, he went off an odds-on fav)
• in between times he's been doing what he always has done - beating small fields of not much over here.

If I was having a bet (I'm not) it would be Zarkandar for me.

Hulk Hands

Grandouet

Deleted User wrote: »

The counter-argument:

• won a CH 2 years ago as a 7 year old
• wasn't good enough to win last year as an 8 year old (nobody was telling us before the race he wasn't himself, he went off an odds-on fav)
• in between times he's been doing what he always has done - beating small fields of not much over here.

My point is that at 3/1 it is worth risking that he is back to his form from 2 years ago, which would be good enough to win imo. I also think he'd have been closer last year under a different ride. Your third point is moot, what would you rather him do?

Hulk Hands

Zarkandar

Hulk Hands wrote: »

My point is that at 3/1 it is worth risking that he is back to his form from 2 years ago, which would be good enough to win imo. I also think he'd have been closer last year under a different ride. Your third point is moot, what would you rather him do?

I have no issue with how he's campaigned - I'm just reading the form.

I do have an issue with anyone here taking anything Willie Mullins says too seriously. Trust me, I backed him last year as did half the country and nobody was talking about him not being himself beforehand.

BTW there's nothing in the form this year that wasn't there last. Yes he had a lay off but returned to beat Oscars Well, Unaccompanied etc handily enough. I'm sure if I went digging i could find a few 'back to his best' quotes from this time last year!

Zarkandar

Mullins after the Irish Champion Hurdle 2012: "He completely surprised me. It must be as good a performance as he's ever produced."

But now he was never right last year. OK....

prettyboy81

Grandouet

I'll be having my big get in this race on Hurricane Fly once he makes it there & small few quid on Countrywide Flame to place currently 5.5 on Betfair.

Hulk Hands

Grandouet

Deleted User wrote: »

BTW there's nothing in the form this year that wasn't there last. Yes he had a lay off but returned to beat Oscars Well, Unaccompanied etc handily enough. I'm sure if I went digging i could find a few 'back to his best' quotes from this time last year!

Okay, so we have to take on 2 things on trust. 1) That he was off form last year. 2) That he has come back to his form from 2 years ago. I still think a potential 5/2-3/1 on the day is more than big enough to chance both those cases being correct. That's my point. This isn't an odds on shot you're talking about here so your fingers will be badly burnt if you are wrong

Hulk Hands

Zarkandar

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Okay, so we have to take on 2 things on trust. 1) That he was off form last year. 2) That he has come back to his form from 2 years ago. I still think a potential 5/2-3/1 on the day is more than big enough to chance both those cases being correct. That's my point. This isn't an odds on shot you're talking about here so your fingers will be badly burnt if you are wrong

We're taking more than that on trust.

He's got to be back on the form he was in 2 years ago (we don't really have anything to suggest he is), and that form has to be good enough to beat Darlan, Zarkandar, Grandouet, ROR etc.

I'm not saying 'can't win' here, I just don't see the value in his price.

For the record I would love it if he did win.

Gringo180

Binocular

Rock On Ruby all day long for me, with Zarkandar being the big danger.

How come Nicholls is no longer training ROR?

jimjamcos

Binocular

Gringo180 wrote: »

Rock On Ruby all day long for me, with Zarkandar being the big danger.

How come Nicholls is no longer training ROR?

Because he never was! Harry Fry was training him in satellite yard last year. Nicholls just turned up on the day to shamelessly take the credit!

RichieLawlor

Cinders and Ashes

Just thinking, Ruby definitely rides Hurricane Fly doesn't he? What chance he jumps to Zarkandar, id say never. I think he would rather upset Nicholls than Willie

jimjamcos

Binocular

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Just thinking, Ruby definitely rides Hurricane Fly doesn't he? What chance he jumps to Zarkandar, id say never. I think he would rather upset Nicholls than Willie

Ruby will never jump of Hurricane Fly as long as he's winning coming up to Festival. Openly admits he's the best hurdler he's ridden ridden along with Big Bucks.

Kinda like the way Ruby always chose Kauto over Denman in those Gold Cups, you kinda feel he's got an attachment with The Fly that he'll never have with Zarkander!

ft9

Zarkandar

Would I be the only one who would rather see Townend on Hurricane Fly?

RichieLawlor

Cinders and Ashes

RichieLawless wrote: »

Would I be the only one who would rather see Townend on Hurricane Fly?

Yes

ft9

Zarkandar

You're opinions today don't appeal to me much.

Hulk Hands

Grandouet

RichieLawless wrote: »

Would I be the only one who would rather see Townend on Hurricane Fly?

I'd imagine so. Townend is talented but has doesn't have a whole pile of experience at the festival

RichieLawlor

Cinders and Ashes

RichieLawless wrote: »

You're opinions today don't appeal to me much.

Whether you like Ruby or not, an by many reports he's a right p****, i dont think there is much doubt that he is the best big race pilot in the business, possibly ever.

Not having him on your horse, however slightly, will weaken its chances

ft9

Zarkandar

He certainly didn't do HF any favours last year, I suppose he won't make the same mistake twice. But yeah I get what you're saying.

I don't want HF to win anyway.

RichieLawlor

Cinders and Ashes

RichieLawless wrote: »

He certainly didn't do HF any favours last year, I suppose he won't make the same mistake twice. But yeah I get what you're saying.

I don't want HF to win anyway.

Well then you want Ruby on Zarkandar

premierstone

Grandouet

RichieLawless wrote: »

Would I be the only one who would rather see Townend on Hurricane Fly?

No your not the only one, I'm sure Paul and mammy Townend share your view's.

RichieLawless wrote: »

He certainly didn't do HF any favours last year, I suppose he won't make the same mistake twice. But yeah I get what you're saying.

I don't want HF to win anyway.

The fact he gave it a poor ride last year is one of the reasons I as a backer am delighted to have him on board again, great Jockey's don't make the same mistake twice.

mountai

Townend on HF every time for me. Never did a thing wrong on him and I believe he gets more out of him than RW.

UnitedIrishman

The more I try to decipher this race, the more it says to me to stay away.

Have backed Darlan, Zarkandar and HF on different occasions the last couple of years and Grandouet this year. Can't make my mind up on what one to go with and after getting stung last year almost going all in with Hurricane Fly, going to be cautious enough this time around.

If I was to back now, I'd have a small bet on Darlan but that's about it. Will look to other races for value.

mdwexford

Champion Hurdle is always one of the hardest races of the festival to predict (at least for me anyway)

More I look at it the more I think Zarkandar could actually win.

mdwexford

Zarkandar

mdwexford wrote: »

Champion Hurdle is always one of the hardest races of the festival to predict (at least for me anyway)

More I look at it the more I think Zarkandar could actually win.

For all the talk about him wanting further, he's unbeaten over 2m other than in last years CH which you could make various excuses for.

He's unfashionable because he's a bit of a grinder. So much the better as far as I am concerned.

redzerdrog

Grandouet

hurricane fly let me down for all sorts of bets last year the only saving grace was i recouped the majority of the stakes by backing Rock on ruby as a saver and although i will prob wait untill the day this year, I have a feeling 'the fly' will be carrying my money again this year

Backstreet Moyes

mountai wrote: »

Townend on HF every time for me. Never did a thing wrong on him and I believe he gets more out of him than RW.

Ruby is the best in the business and what has Townend done rode him where he was out for a schooling session in Ireland. Ruby is the best in the business and anybody who would rather Townend on board are mad.

klairondavis

Grandouet

Nuts102 wrote: »

Ruby is the best in the business and what has Townend done rode him where he was out for a schooling session in Ireland. Ruby is the best in the business and anybody who would rather Townend on board are mad.

Agreed. Walsh is the winning-most jockey in Cheltenham history. Townend has won one race at the festival on board Arthur Moore's mare in the Fred Winter. It's a no brainer for connections.

mountai

Nuts102 wrote: »

Ruby is the best in the business and what has Townend done rode him where he was out for a schooling session in Ireland. Ruby is the best in the business and anybody who would rather Townend on board are mad.

Well if yesterdays racing showed Ruby at his Best !!! Townend was magic onQDLR.

Backstreet Moyes

mountai wrote: »

Well if yesterdays racing showed Ruby at his Best !!! Townend was magic onQDLR.

Ye that's solid reasoning for wanting to kick off the best jockey around for a jockey who has won one race in Cheltenham.

Morgans

Deleted User wrote: »

Mullins after the Irish Champion Hurdle 2012: "He completely surprised me. It must be as good a performance as he's ever produced."

But now he was never right last year. OK....

Even using that evidence on what Willie said, Hurricane Fly surprised him last year. What actually happened was that he looked impressive in an awful race in the Irish Champion. Form of Unaccompanied unfortunately meant nothing. People, including Willie seemingly were fooled by the performance into thinking he was back at his best, hence the surprise.

He has been quoted in interviews this year commenting on how things are far more straightforward this year. For those who support him, its the only chance they have.

mountai

Nuts102 wrote: »

Ye that's solid reasoning for wanting to kick off the best jockey around for a jockey who has won one race in Cheltenham.

Listen , I never said "Kick him off" , its a matter of opinion as to who is the is a best jockey. RW has the pick of the best horses in UK and here. Its easy to be a top jock with the horses he has to ride. IMHO Townend is more talented and I used yesterday to illustrate , RW on Odds on shots didnt produce , PT on an unfancied mount was BRILLIANT. Its only MY opinion.

kiers47

Zarkandar

mountai wrote: »

Listen , I never said "Kick him off" , its a matter of opinion as to who is the is a best jockey. RW has the pick of the best horses in UK and here. Its easy to be a top jock with the horses he has to ride. IMHO Townend is more talented and I used yesterday to illustrate , RW on Odds on shots didnt produce , PT on an unfancied mount was BRILLIANT. Its only MY opinion.

He has the pick of the horses for a reason. Do you honestly think the likes of Willie Mullins and Paul Nichols have the arrangement they do with him just for the craic. Dont get me wrong Paul Townend is a highly talented jockey. And your example is a bit flawed. QDLR was a classy horse and just lost his way a small bit. A year ago he would have been odds on to beat that lot yesterday.

But facts are facts and Ruby is a big race jockey and his record speaks for itself.

Also a fairly interesting piece they had on betfair a few weeks ago
here

mountai

Back off lads. I NEVER said RW is a BAD jock. For me , Townend has more talent and his time will come to prove it . I know that if I had a choice between both, I would choose PT for my horses.I think I"m entitled to air this view without being attacked.

Backstreet Moyes

mountai wrote: »

Listen , I never said "Kick him off" , its a matter of opinion as to who is the is a best jockey. RW has the pick of the best horses in UK and here. Its easy to be a top jock with the horses he has to ride. IMHO Townend is more talented and I used yesterday to illustrate , RW on Odds on shots didnt produce , PT on an unfancied mount was BRILLIANT. Its only MY opinion.

Cast your mind back to Ruby a few weeks ago on Back in Focus and Tidal Bay they were masterful rides seems your going to pick out yesterday to back up your point. Their is also a reason Ruby has the pick of the best because he is the best. I have great time for Townend and he will go onto be a great jockey but he has a long way to go.

It's a big difference between winning on an outsider where their is no pressure and being on the big horses where every mistake you made is criticised. Townend has potential but is nowhere near Ruby's class yet he may get their. Ruby is the man you want on the big horses the man for the big occasion their is nobody close to him imo for big horses.

Also what exactly was so majestic about Townend's ride yesterday. Roi Du Mee was being pushed along a long way out. Day's hotel was stalking in 3rd and only for he nearly went at the third last i think he would have won. 5 out it was basically a 3 horse race where him and Roi Du mee were pushing and the big danger nearly fell. If you want to see majestic think back to Tidal Bay and Back in Focus.

kiers47

Zarkandar

mountai wrote: »

Back off lads. I NEVER said RW is a BAD jock. For me , Townend has more talent and his time will come to prove it . I know that if I had a choice between both, I would choose PT for my horses.I think I"m entitled to air this view without being attacked.

Nobody is attacking you all i said was that the facts speak for themselves. You said it is easy to be a Top Jock when you have the pick of all the horses and i stated in more words than this but that might be the case but he is where he is for a reason and the top trainers obviously think highly of him.

ste2010

Zarkandar

Morgans wrote: »

He has been quoted in interviews this year commenting on how things are far more straightforward this year. For those who support him, its the only chance they have.

What do you mean by this? That its Mullins only chance in the CH or something else?

mdwexford

mountai wrote: »

Listen , I never said "Kick him off" , its a matter of opinion as to who is the is a best jockey. RW has the pick of the best horses in UK and here. Its easy to be a top jock with the horses he has to ride. IMHO Townend is more talented and I used yesterday to illustrate , RW on Odds on shots didnt produce , PT on an unfancied mount was BRILLIANT. Its only MY opinion.

Your opinion is wrong.

SRFC

Grandouet

Paul Townend is the best of his generation and will be the top dog for many years when ruby has gone,but his record at Cheltenham is one winner I think be a brave man to put him up over Ruby if it was your horse,


If Rock on Ruby wins back to back champion hurdles ill give up backing horses for good cant see it happening admirable horse that he is just wont be winning,Darlan I think suprised his connections at Kempton and dont think he'd be better than Binocular who mccoy I think will ride,Zarkandar dont fancy him was fairly beaten last year dont buy into the staying on arguement so HF it is :cool:

premierstone

Grandouet

SRFC wrote: »

Paul Townend is the best of his generation and will be the top dog for many years when ruby has gone,but his record at Cheltenham is one winner I think be a brave man to put him up over Ruby if it was your horse,


If Rock on Ruby wins back to back champion hurdles ill give up backing horses for good cant see it happening admirable horse that he is just wont be winning,Darlan I think suprised his connections at Kempton and dont think he'd be better than Binocular who mccoy I think will ride,Zarkandar dont fancy him was fairly beaten last year dont buy into the staying on arguement so HF it is :cool:

So is that 11 or 12 winners Mullins is going to have on Day 1, I've lost count

Morgans

ste2010 wrote: »

What do you mean by this? That its Mullins only chance in the CH or something else?

I mean that if Hurricane Fly is in the same form at Cheltenham as last year he wont be good enough to win this years Champion hurdle. I certainly dont buy the "bad ride" explanation. Horse wasnt good enough last year. If it a declining ability, he is an awful price. If he wasn't right last year (there were persistent rumours all year about his well-being) he has some chance of winning.

ste2010

Zarkandar

Morgans wrote: »

I mean that if Hurricane Fly is in the same form at Cheltenham as last year he wont be good enough to win this years Champion hurdle. I certainly dont buy the "bad ride" explanation. Horse wasnt good enough last year. If it a declining ability, he is an awful price. If he wasn't right last year (there were persistent rumours all year about his well-being) he has some chance of winning.

Yeh I agree with this. I was watching the CH 2012 last night again forenscally examining
The one thing I noticed was Zarkandar just couldn't hack the pace...I know he was off but I have my reservations about him in this regard this year after watching it again and again..the speed should kill his chances if GS comes up but he could stay for a place
I have come to my own conclusion last night that there must have been something amiss with HF at some level anyway..
My reasoning is this..
Is it possible oscar wells, overturn and binocular, rock on ruby all ran out of there absolute skin or tht hurricane fly regressed to a level all these are accustomed too..I can make a case for ROR but for binocular, overturn and OW I can't really ..He couldn't pick up past Oscars well when asked again an again..this is my main marker...watch the race again..it looked at one stage he never going to pass him..
we have seen time and time and time again him pulling clear easily from this horse but on that day you would question whether it was ever going to happen..he did get past him in the end but was laboursome.... ..his run in march wasnt his true showing...his race against go native this year suggest he has regressed a little but the big question is by how much and does it keep him out of the frame in march
The most annoying thing for me trying to study this race is the ground in which all the promoted novices/juveniles have run on so far meaning ts very difficult to get a true sign of their ability on G'S or even S or that matter...
I'd like to see grandouet run again and CWF, grumeti, darlan all on good to soft or soft ground before march the question marks for trying to select this years winner are endless..

UrbanSea

Cinders and Ashes

Ste I think you're being very dismissive to binocular there. People forget how good he looked at Wincanton the run before Cheltenham (first race after a wind op) and if I remember correctly had a rating of 170 after that, only 3 lbs off HF going into the race

handsfree

Rock on Ruby

ste2010 wrote: »

Yeh I agree with this. I was watching the CH 2012 last night again forenscally examining
The one thing I noticed was Zarkandar just couldn't hack the pace...I know he was off but I have my reservations about him in this regard this year after watching it again and again..the speed should kill his chances if GS comes up but he could stay for a place
I have come to my own conclusion last night that there must have been something amiss with HF at some level anyway..
My reasoning is this..
Is it possible oscar wells, overturn and binocular, rock on ruby all ran out of there absolute skin or tht hurricane fly regressed to a level all these are accustomed too..I can make a case for ROR but for binocular, overturn and OW I can't really ..He couldn't pick up past Oscars well when asked again an again..this is my main marker...watch the race again..it looked at one stage he never going to pass him..
we have seen time and time and time again him pulling clear easily from this horse but on that day you would question whether it was ever going to happen..he did get past him in the end but was laboursome.... ..his run in march wasnt his true showing...his race against go native this year suggest he has regressed a little but the big question is by how much and does it keep him out of the frame in march
The most annoying thing for me trying to study this race is the ground in which all the promoted novices/juveniles have run on so far meaning ts very difficult to get a true sign of their ability on G'S or even S or that matter...
I'd like to see grandouet run again and CWF, grumeti, darlan all on good to soft or soft ground before march the question marks for trying to select this years winner are endless..

I'd agree with most of this but I do think that Zarkander will have improved from last year and will be closer. He stayed on well and almost pipped binocular.

In my opinion, last years race was run at fierce gallop. Without Overturn setting the pace this year, tactical pace will be the order of the day. This will suit Grandouet and HF. Grandouet for me with Zarkander to outstay HF up the hill.

ste2010

Zarkandar

RichieLawlessness wrote: »

Ste I think you're being very dismissive to binocular there. People forget how good he looked at Wincanton the run before Cheltenham (first race after a wind op) and if I remember correctly had a rating of 170 after that, only 3 lbs off HF going into the race

I purposely dismissed him as I think he was always overrated.
His race at wincanton was Against horses of yesteryear who were both handicapping at the time..celestial halo and starluck...Where they even in the champion hurdle last year?
The truth about binocular is when he is thrown in with the big boys he has only come out on top once..

UrbanSea

Cinders and Ashes

ste2010 wrote: »

I purposely dismissed him as I think he was always overrated.
His race at wincanton was Against horses of yesteryear who were both handicapping at the time..celestial halo and starluck...Where they even in the champion hurdle last year?
The truth about binocular is when he is thrown in with the big boys he has only come out on top once..

It's not the fact he beat them, it's the manner in which he did.

I must be imagining that he beat Rock On Ruby(who you can make a case for beating HF) in the Christmas Hurdle

ste2010

Zarkandar

RichieLawlessness wrote: »

It's not the fact he beat them, it's the manner in which he did.

I must be imagining that he beat Rock On Ruby(who you can make a case for beating HF) in the Christmas Hurdle

I wouldn't get carried away with the wincanton..didn't grandouet do the same to celestial halo FTO last year?

He did beat ROR in the christmas hurdle which was certainly a stronger race with overturn behind also..if ROR didn't clip the second last the result might have been different. If we are assuming though that 1st and 2nd was a fluke last year then it's difficult to rate that race..but it was certainly stronger than thrashing his old foe celestial halo

droidman123

Rock on Ruby

ste2010 wrote: »

I wouldn't get carried away with the wincanton..didn't grandouet do the same to celestial halo FTO last year?

He did beat ROR in the christmas hurdle which was certainly a stronger race with overturn behind also..if ROR didn't clip the second last the result might have been different. If we are assuming though that 1st and 2nd was a fluke last year then it's difficult to rate that race..but it was certainly stronger than thrashing his old foe celestial halo

Unfair to call it a fluke last year.its not like some of the fancied horses fell or got boxed in or whatever.ror won it on merit,no question.

Gringo180

Binocular

ste2010 wrote: »

Yeh I agree with this. I was watching the CH 2012 last night again forenscally examining
The one thing I noticed was Zarkandar just couldn't hack the pace...I know he was off but I have my reservations about him in this regard this year after watching it again and again..the speed should kill his chances if GS comes up but he could stay for a place
I have come to my own conclusion last night that there must have been something amiss with HF at some level anyway..
My reasoning is this..
Is it possible oscar wells, overturn and binocular, rock on ruby all ran out of there absolute skin or tht hurricane fly regressed to a level all these are accustomed too..I can make a case for ROR but for binocular, overturn and OW I can't really ..He couldn't pick up past Oscars well when asked again an again..this is my main marker...watch the race again..it looked at one stage he never going to pass him..
we have seen time and time and time again him pulling clear easily from this horse but on that day you would question whether it was ever going to happen..he did get past him in the end but was laboursome.... ..his run in march wasnt his true showing...his race against go native this year suggest he has regressed a little but the big question is by how much and does it keep him out of the frame in march
The most annoying thing for me trying to study this race is the ground in which all the promoted novices/juveniles have run on so far meaning ts very difficult to get a true sign of their ability on G'S or even S or that matter...
I'd like to see grandouet run again and CWF, grumeti, darlan all on good to soft or soft ground before march the question marks for trying to select this years winner are endless..

Regarding HF not picking off Oscar Wells as easy as he did when racing him in Ireland you have to look at the pace of the races, they go a good gallop in the champion hurdle and that might have took the sting out of HF turn of foot but when ye look at anytime hes raced in Ireland they are going very pedestrian like and then it turns into a sprint about 4 out which would suit HF down to the ground in my opinion.