Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie
Hi there,
There is an issue with role permissions that is being worked on at the moment.
If you are having trouble with access or permissions on regional forums please post here to get access: https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058365403/you-do-not-have-permission-for-that#latest

Saturday 12th Jan (Megatron Day)

  • 11-01-2013 7:42pm
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭


    This is something I wrote earlier. Price on Starluck is now 10/1

    Starluck 3.50 Kempton 16/1

    Think this a massive price for this 8 year old who seems to be around for a long time. He was originally trained by Kevin Prendergast in Ireland on the flat and has some smart form in that sphere, landing a Dundalk maiden first time out in in 2008 when owned by Lady O'Reilly, before twice going down by a small margin in second off handicaps off marks of 88 and 90. Had a couple of more starts on the flat before moving to Alan Fleming's yard before the end of that year, winning at Huntingdon first time out over hurdles before winning his next three starts (2 miles, good ground). Was fancied for that year's Triumph, finishing 4th at 5/1 behind Zaynar, before disappointing in the 2 mile Grade 1 Novice at Aintree. Has had some very strong hurdling form since then, returning in October 2009 to land a Listed hurdle on firm ground at Cheltenham, before being beaten next time out at Haydock on heavy ground, which I don't think he particularly likes. However, he showed his best run to date on his next start over this course and distance in the 2009 Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle, going down by just a short head to Go Native on good to soft going which he'll get tomorrow.

    It's hard to believe that run is over three years ago, and he never quite reached the promise that he showed that day and in a couple of subsequent starts, looking just below Grade 1 level, but he did go on to run a good fifth though in the 2010 Champion Hurdle behind Binocular, though he has always struck me as a horse who never truly gets up the hill despite an earlier win at Cheltenham, though that was a weaker race and firm ground. He went on to run a good second behind Peddlers Cross on his seasonal comeback at the end of 2010 in the Grade 1 Fighting Fifth, before a respectable third in the 2010 Christmas Hurdle, again at Kempton (rescheduled for early 2011).

    His form has levelled off subsequently, however, and was sent novice chasing in early 2011. Despite winning a Huntingdon novice first time out, he did prove to be disappointing in his chasing career, being beaten at long odds on next time at Sandown before being well beaten at Aintree upped in Grade behind Finian's Rainbow. He was off for nearly a year before returning to hurdles at Wincanton early last year, finishing a modest third in the Kingwell hurdle, proving no much for a different class Binocular that day.

    Went handicapping after that, with his first run being a respectable 12th in the County Hurdle at the Festival, beaten about a dozen lengths by Alderwood off a mark of 150, again not looking like he's best suited to Cheltenham. Had three poor runs on the flat after that before going back hurdling in November, running a poor race when well beaten by Raya Star in a Listed Handicap Hurdle at Ascot off a mark of 149. That said, he did hint at a return to form next time out, again at Ascot on soft ground, beaten around 8 lengths by Petit Robin, who went on to win next time out in a race that Starluck ran in (was a much stronger race), but he did disappoint yet again, a well beaten seventh off a mark of 143.

    That said, he has dropped to a very attractive mark of 140 (not including Tom Cannon's three pound claim), and the return to this sharper track where he has run very well in the past, on better ground, could see him run a big race at a very good each way price.


    One other at Kempton at a big price that could go well is

    Oscar Prairie 2.40 Kempton 16/1

    As usual the Lanzarote handicap looks wide open but does at least mean we can find a bit of value in the race. Oscar Prairie is a relatively unexposed 8 year old son of Oscar who already has a course and distance victory to his name. Originally trained in Ireland, he was bought out of Phyllis O'Rourke's yard for 14,000 pounds after a good third in a Killarney bumper. Ran a good race first time out for it's new yard December 09, finishing twelve lengths behind Wishful Thinking over two and a half miles, and ran to a similar level next time out at Leicester, again finishing forth, beaten ten lengths by a subsequent winner. Entered handicaps off a mark of 110, finishing third first time out over an extended three miles at Warwick (looked like a non stayer), and did nothing to deter that impression next time out in a better handicap at Cheltenham, finishing nearer last than first that day. Returned to novice company next time out, comfortably landing an extended 2 mile Folkestone novice hurdle (well backed), before returning to handicap company next time out at Lingfield, disappointing when beaten at 4/9 on.

    Tried his luck at fences after this, running poorly as the 11/4 favourite at Warwick, before falling in a 3 mile Exeter novice. Did get back to winning ways next time out over fences at Chepstow on good to soft ground, proving he could handle three miles off a mark of 110, and absolutely bolted up next time out at Hereford in a handicap hurdle off the same mark, winning by 28 lengths.

    Disappointed next starts in handicap chases over three miles, pulling up both starts, but got back to winning ways in a jumpers' bumper at Kempton last February, before running one of his best races of last season, winning over this course and distance a shade cosily off a mark of 125 in a race that has some good form in behind,before running a big race,again off this course and distance, next time out off his revised mark of 133, finishing a five length third. He hasn't been as good since, pulling up both subsequent starts, including over three miles in a strong Aintree handicap hurdle, then at Uttoxeter over fences on his seasonal return.

    Looked like he was a horse on the decline when pulling up at Wetherby next start in a handicap hurdle over two and three quarter miles off a mark of 130 (had ran poorly in a Wolverhampton all weather maiden in between). However, did return to form last time out following a near three month break, running a big race at 66/1 last weekend at Wincanton, beaten seven lengths by a most impressive winner whose original handicap mark of 125 was proven to be at least 20 lbs wrong (winner is 3/3 over hurdles and a half brother to Grands Crus). Oscar Prairie goes unpenalised for that run and could run well at a price tomorrow, with Thomas Garner taking off a valuable seven pounds. Has shown his liking for this course and hopefully a big run can be on the cards.


«1

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,184 ✭✭✭3ndahalfof6


    1/1 Rossom out reason's you, great write up sir.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,886 ✭✭✭MoscowFlyer


    I was going to be on Major Malarkey in the Welsh Grand National last week but he didn't make the final cut so I'll be on him tomorrow in the Betfred Classic at Warwick.

    On @ 12s.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    Highland Lodge v Rocky Creek looks well worth watching tomorrow


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,625 ✭✭✭✭Johner


    Highland Lodge v Rocky Creek looks well worth watching tomorrow

    Both 6/4. I fancy Highland Lodge after his last run.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,370 ✭✭✭rossom


    I certainly think you'll get a run for your money with Oscar Prairie Urban and I can see him running well. No bet race for me as its an absolute minefield


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,200 ✭✭✭superfurry1


    Really liking the chances of Benheir in the Betfred classic at 16-1 with patrick corbett taking 7 off he should be thereabouts.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,404 ✭✭✭mr.jingle


    Just looking at the cards tonight for tomorrow's racing and on this day last year i'd 4 up an e/w Lucky 31 and the last was leading coming to the last and ended up 3rd but still got a nice pay day. Hopefully the same outcome this year but I'll probably be just sticking with the McCain/Maguire combo tomorrow 4 horses tomorrow and hopefully 4 winners might even throw in Kie for the Lucky 31 :D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,173 ✭✭✭hucklebuck


    Here are my excel files for tomorrows racing in England:

    http://rapidshare.com/files/2742306742/Saturday.rar

    I am going to kick off my trial log for taking on favourites I think that can be beaten tomorrow.

    Chat in the morning.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,370 ✭✭✭rossom


    12.40 Warwick

    Thunder Sheik 10/1


    Going against Stick here but I'm siding with the top weight in the shape of Fergal O'Brien's 5 year old Thunder Sheik who has a first time tongue tie and cheekpieces applied and who I certainly think is better than his current mark of 110. Thunder Sheik made his debut in a Grade 2 Triumph Hurdle Trial at Cheltenham in November 2011 where I thought he shaped very well for a long way behind some top class rivals before a combination of being outclassed and probably a little tired to finish a well beaten 8th of 9 but it certainly was a very encouraging effort in such a hot event on his racecourse debut. Trawling back through O'Brien's blog, he stated prior to his debut that "we think an awful lot of him" which is hardly surprising given the level he was pitched in at and it was a very nice introduction over hurdles. Thunder Sheik made his 2nd start start in a Juvenile Hurdle at Newbury over an extended 2m a month later and although he finished a well beaten 5th he again showed up well for a long way before blowing up after 3 out. That race was a pretty good event with the front two Ardlui and Tango Du Juilley both pretty talented animals. Thunder Sheik took a 3 month break before his 3 start when he certainly fulfilled a bit of the promise shown in his first two starts when finishing a staying on 5L beaten 4th in a 2m Juvenile Hurdle. After sitting prominent under Sam Twiston-Davies, Thunder Sheik was outpaced after 3 out before staying on very nicely where he was never closer than at the finish and it was a big step in the right direction with regards to him looking more like a finished article. That Juvenile hurdle does not look too bad a race with the 3 in front of him now rated 117, 119 and 133 (was a hurdling debutant) and it certainly was a step in the right direction. A few weeks later Thunder Sheik made his handicap debut off a mark of 112 in a Class 2 handicap where he never really went a yard so I'm putting a line through that effort.

    After his handicap debut, Thunder Sheik took a 7 month break to presumably allow him to develop both physically and mentally and he shaped extremely nicely on his seasonal reappearance at Towcester in November over 2m5f off his current mark of 110. Held up in the rear of the field under Paddy Brennan, Thunder Sheik just about hit the front turning into the home straight still on the bridle but he didn't find much off the bridle as he plugged on at the one pace to finish a 9L beaten 5th. I don't know if it was he didn't stay the trip, got tired on his first start of the season or perhaps even had a bit of a wind issue but he certainly travelled like the best handicapped horse in the race and I think he'll come on an awful lot for that race. That race has worked out pretty solidly with most of the horses in front of him performing very admirably off the same or higher marks and it was another big step in the right direction. Tomorrow Thunder Sheik is stepped back to the minimum trip for his 3rd start in a handicap and he will get first time cheekpieces and a tongue tie applied. I think the tonque tie could significantly improve him as he has shaped on a couple of occasions that he may have a win issue whilst I feel the cheekpieces will help him focus which I also think is an underlying issue. Fergal O'Brien has said he has been disappointing to date and I think he is one of those horses that has needed quite a bit of time to fully grow physically and mentally and he certainly shaped the last day like he had developed in both departments. In his latest blog, his trainer has stated "Thunder Sheik thinks he is jack the lad and has a lot more ability than he has been showing" which certainly suggests that connections feel he is quite a bit better than his current mark if putting everything together, which I agree with. Fergal O'Brien's landlord Timmy Murphy takes the ride and Thunder Sheik seems exactly the sort of horse he will excel with by giving him a patient ride. Although the step back to 2m may be a little on the sharp side, this 17 runner race should be run at good pace which should be fine for him. I am a slight bit concerned about the soft ground but I'm hoping that he will be fine on it. If the implementation of first time headgear and a tongue tie work the oracle, I'm confident of a big run from Fergal O'Brien's unexposed 5 year old which will hopefully allow him to land what essentially is a pretty poor but competitive contest.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,370 ✭✭✭rossom


    3.15 Kempton

    Kingsmere 9/1


    Henry Daly's 8 year old could easily have won his first 5 starts over fences barring two late tumbles and a shuddering mistake and after finding the Paddy Power Chase at Cheltenham back in November in bottomless ground too tough off his current mark of 137 I'm confident that he's on a good mark and in a much easier contest on better ground I'm quietly confident that he could prove very difficult to beat. A decent enough hurdler, this son of King's Theatre seems to be quite a bit better over fences and I think he would have made a winning debut over fences barring a final flight fall at Stratford back in April. Over just shy of 3m, Kingsmere was in a slight lead after jumping well before being steadied going into the last by Andrew Tinkler before he met it all wrong and blundered to the ground. At the very least, he would have finished a very narrowly beaten 3rd against a pair of rivals who had already had 4 starts each over fences in a race that looks like very strong form with the winner Mr Mole (carrying a 7lb penalty) now rated 132 over fences and the narrowly beaten 2nd Emmaslegend bolting in by 19L in a Listed Handicap off a mark of 132 subsequently.

    A month later he was dropped back to 2m4f for his 2nd start over fences and barring two shuddering mistakes I am sure he would have scored in very impressive fashion but he had to settle for a 1L defeat in the 6 runner Novice Contest. Under Richard Johnson, Kingsmere was tracking the leaders but he was travelling and jumping so well that after the 9th flight he had jumped to the lead before making an awful error at the next flight as he ploughed himself into the 10th flight which saw him immediately drop back to 3rd and it most definitely would have knocked the wind out of his sails. With Johnson being the experienced and excellent pilot that he is, Kingsmere was given time to recover from his mistake and in the long run in between the final two flights Johnson made up more than 5L on his mount and he was about 1L up going over the last which, once again, was a terrible blunder and he could not recover in time as he went down fighting by a length in second. The form of that race looks very solid with the winner Domtaline, who was conceding 7lb to Kingsmere, franking the form very strongly subsequently which I will go into more details later.

    A couple of weeks later at the start of May 2012 Kingsmere landed his first chase on his 3rd start over the larger obstacles when scoring very comfortably in a really poor Beginners Chase but he made it successive victories under a penalty for tomorrow's jockey Jake Greenhall in extremely impressive style as he conceded all the finishers 7lb over 2m7f at Stratford last July. Kingsmere tracked the leaders until the 5th flight before opening up a clear advantage on the field and he never saw another rival as he came home a heavily eased 11L winner but in truth that could have been 50L if he was fully extended. He beat a good yardstick in Thelobstercatcher into 3rd that day who was narrowly beaten in a handicap off a mark of 119 in his previous start and given that Kingsmere gave him 7lb and trounced him it was a rather impressive effort. That was his final start for 108 days as he took the rest of the summer off before he reappeared towards the end of October in a hot Novice Chase under a double penalty at Cheltenham over 2m4f where I think he would have, at the very least, gone extremely close to winning before falling two out. Again under Jake Greenhall and under joint top weight, Kingsmere's jumping throughout the contest was generally very good and he was still travelling very well as he took a shuddering fall at the 2nd last flight and I'm pretty confident that Kingsmere would have won if he had jumped the final two flights well. That was a bit of a cat and mouse contest that turned into a little bit of a sprint which probably tainted the form a little bit but Domtaline, who was 7lb worse off with Kingsmere from his earlier victory over Henry Daly's charge, has run two really good races subsequently when narrowly beaten by Kumbeshwar off level weights before going down narrowly to the talented Williams Wishes in a handicap off a mark of 139 after going down by a short head in that Cheltenham contest.

    Kingsmere's final start came 6 weeks ago in the grueling Paddy Power Chase at Cheltenham in torrid conditions on his handicap debut off his current mark of 137 in a race where only 1/3rd of the field finished and despite being pulled up I thought Kingsmere ran a pretty promising race. Under Sam Twiston-Davies, Kingsmere travelled well throughout the contest and was still travelling well in the leading group at about 4 out but he seemed a very tired animal after that as he couldn't pick up in the testing conditions and his young jockey did the sensible thing like so many others by pulling up his mount before the 2nd last. It takes a very good horse to land the Paddy Power Chase which is evident given that Long Run could only finish 3rd in the race the season he won the Gold Cup so being outclassed off a mark of 137 isn't much of a concern for me. Tomorrow Kingsmere should find things an awful lot easier in this Class 2 contest over 3m as he is the 2nd highest rated horse in the field and based on his chasing exploits to date I certainly think he has more than enough ability to win off his current mark if eradicating the costly mistakes prevalent throughout his brief chasing career to date. Jake Greenhall, who seems to get on very well with this 8 year old, takes the ride again and he takes off a very handy 3lb off to alleviate some of the big weight under his back. Although if the rain does change the going to soft which he is unproven on, I won't be gravely concerned but will certainly be hoping that the going doesn't get too testing. With Henry Daly in good form, I'm confident of a really big showing from his 8 year old Kingsmere and if he can jump around and avoid making mistakes then I think he'll take an awful lot of beating off a mark of 137.


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,370 ✭✭✭rossom


    2.25 Warwick

    De La Bech 6/1


    This looks a fascinating contest with some pretty decent chasers returning to hurdles off better marks with bigger targets later in the season with current favourite The Package perhaps the most intriguing but I couldn't be backing him with stolen money and think he is a crazy price being as short 3/1. Fair enough, he races off a 13lb lower mark then when seen running a very good 4th in the Hennessey but this is clearly an afterthought as opposed to a planned season target and given that this will be his first start over the smaller obstacles since May 2009 I will be very, very surprised if he wins and think he has a better chance of being pulled up. Is it impossible that he cant win? Of course not but I will personally be very surprised if he can and I'll probably be place laying him in the morning. Now to the horse I like which is Philip Hobbs's unexposed 6 year old De La Bech who has flourished now switched to front running tactics by landing his last 2 starts, the latest on handicap debut off a 7lb lower mark at Ascot last month by a little over a length from the reopposing Okafranca (2lb worse off) who was in excellent form in landing his last two starts prior to finishing runner up to Hobbs's charge. The form of that race is untested but given Okafranca's prior form I'd be very surprised if it didn't work out pretty well and I think De La Bech was value for more than his 1.25L winning margin suggests. Although this race is significantly tougher than his latest assignment, De La Bech is open to considerable improvement with only 4 starts over hurdles and 5 starts under Rules to his name and I'd be very, very surprised if his current mark of 125 proves beyond him. Moreover, he really seemed to relish his first try over 3m under Rules (Point winner over the distance) and on just his 2nd handicap start he could easily be quite a bit ahead of the handicapper. In addition, De La Bech's current rating of 125 definitely won't get him into the Pertemps Final at the Cheltenham Festival and he will need to increase his handicap rating quite close to a stone before March and there is no doubt in my mind that connections see tomorrow as the perfect opportunity to at least accomplish some of that task. Tom O'Brien, who was on board for his impressive Novice Hurdle success two starts back, takes over in the saddle again as I presume Richard Johnson is suspended and with conditions posing no issue and his trainer in good form I'm very confident of a massive showing from this 6 year old and I think he'll take an awful lot of stopping in his hat trick bid.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,774 ✭✭✭Big Daddy Cool


    Just 2 bets for me today.

    2.40 Kempton. Oscara Dara
    2.25 Warwick. The Package


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,173 ✭✭✭hucklebuck


    My dad got a tip for Holywell 7/1 in the 2:35 in Warwick from a relative of Maurice Lenihan.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,775 ✭✭✭✭Slattsy


    Howay the lads :)

    2 for me today.

    1.15 Warwick - Rody 5/1

    Won well last time out, quite handily in my eyes and although he's gone up 10lb and has top weight here, he should give a good account. Finished 2nd to the decent yardstick Drumshambo on his first start this year, and even though he improved from that, i actually think that form would have been good enough to win this race, where a lot of them can be ruled out.

    2.20 Kempton - Oscara Dara (6/1)

    There's been a lot of chat about value around here lately.... and with that in mind im putting this fella up. I priced him up at around 3/1. I think he has the best form in the race. His first run this season was over fences and he reverts back to hurdles here.
    He finished 2nd on Cantlow over fences that day (won the other day). On his final race last year over hurdles he beat Malt Master (won yesterday) at the Punchestown festival and before that finished 4th in an Aintree Grade 2 event beaten 15 lenghts by Darlan (CH fav now) and had Captain Conan (Arkle 3rd fav) and the good Prospect Wells ahead of him.

    Step up in trip will suit here and no ground issues. Im expecting a good show.
    Good luck if you follow.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,547 ✭✭✭droidman123


    Did diakali and sergeant guibs in a double. Sergeant buibs a surprising 7/4!! And I agree with slatts about oscara Dara,but I only got 5,s : (


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,547 ✭✭✭droidman123


    hucklebuck wrote: »
    My dad got a tip for Holywell 7/1 in the 2:35 in Warwick from a relative of Maurice Lenihan.
    Unfortunalty I have lost patience with that horse after I backed it on its last to 2nds : ( went for a modest e/w on okafranca in it.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 878 ✭✭✭sonnky


    3.00 at Warwick I fancy Hold Court e/w! Only 3/4l behind Coneygree in a good bumper last year(albeit in 9th) that was a good run and he has scope to improve. Available at 12's with Betvictor.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 878 ✭✭✭sonnky


    Also if King Vuvezela reproducs some of his best form he can win he 12.35 at Punchestown. Nice 20/1 with Paddypower.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,173 ✭✭✭hucklebuck




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,370 ✭✭✭rossom


    Thunder Sheik ran a cracker and I think was a little unfortunate not to win that. Hopefully hitting the bar is not a sign of things to come today.


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,886 ✭✭✭MoscowFlyer


    My one big bet today is on Temple Road (1.25 Lingfield). Think it still has plenty in hand and even though it's 7/4 Im piling on!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,775 ✭✭✭✭Slattsy


    Slattsy wrote: »
    Howay the lads :)

    2 for me today.

    1.15 Warwick - Rody 5/1

    Won well last time out, quite handily in my eyes and although he's gone up 10lb and has top weight here, he should give a good account. Finished 2nd to the decent yardstick Drumshambo on his first start this year, and even though he improved from that, i actually think that form would have been good enough to win this race, where a lot of them can be ruled out.

    Wins well :)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,838 ✭✭✭Nulty


    Well done Slattsy Rody wins @ 11/2


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,886 ✭✭✭MoscowFlyer


    Ugh, Temple Road hit the go button and had nothing after about 2 seconds :(


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,775 ✭✭✭✭Slattsy


    I like Highland Lodge in the next at Warwick.
    I think/hope he has too much class for Rocky Creek.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,144 ✭✭✭BQQ


    Slattsy wrote: »
    1.15 Warwick - Rody 5/1

    Won well last time out, quite handily in my eyes and although he's gone up 10lb and has top weight here, he should give a good account. Finished 2nd to the decent yardstick Drumshambo on his first start this year, and even though he improved from that, i actually think that form would have been good enough to win this race, where a lot of them can be ruled out.

    Wins well :)

    nice pick.

    With the Drumshambo form getting a boost there, Lease lend looks a decent bet in the 14:15

    I also like Triangular in the 14:05 at Kempton.
    Was 2nd in the same race last year under Geraghty. Stable are flying.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,775 ✭✭✭✭Slattsy


    Slattsy wrote: »
    I like Highland Lodge in the next at Warwick.
    I think/hope he has too much class for Rocky Creek.

    I was way off with that. Not even close.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 82 ✭✭Graupel


    Bollox had Highland love in my lucky 15 at 25/1, 7 lengths clear coming to the last and blunders it and finishes second :(


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,144 ✭✭✭BQQ


    100/1 winner at Wetherby :eek::eek:


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,370 ✭✭✭rossom


    Have done a pretty sizable place lay on The Package at 1.6 in the 2.25 Warwick. He's having his first start for hurdles in nearly 4 years and this is clearly an afterthought by the Pipe team. I'm pretty confident he won't get close to making the frame.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,173 ✭✭✭hucklebuck


    Triangular in the 2.05


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 82 ✭✭Graupel


    Cruchain unlucky there just getting going twice and hit a fence both times, Knocked the stuffing out of him.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,173 ✭✭✭hucklebuck


    He never went a yard and never met one right. Thought the previous form in the race, the yard form and the jockey booking were decent pointers.

    Looks like the horses attitude is gone, refused to race last time too.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,886 ✭✭✭MoscowFlyer


    rossom wrote: »
    2.25 Warwick

    De La Bech 6/1


    This looks a fascinating contest with some pretty decent chasers returning to hurdles off better marks with bigger targets later in the season with current favourite The Package perhaps the most intriguing but I couldn't be backing him with stolen money and think he is a crazy price being as short 3/1. Fair enough, he races off a 13lb lower mark then when seen running a very good 4th in the Hennessey but this is clearly an afterthought as opposed to a planned season target and given that this will be his first start over the smaller obstacles since May 2009 I will be very, very surprised if he wins and think he has a better chance of being pulled up. Is it impossible that he cant win? Of course not but I will personally be very surprised if he can and I'll probably be place laying him in the morning. Now to the horse I like which is Philip Hobbs's unexposed 6 year old De La Bech who has flourished now switched to front running tactics by landing his last 2 starts, the latest on handicap debut off a 7lb lower mark at Ascot last month by a little over a length from the reopposing Okafranca (2lb worse off) who was in excellent form in landing his last two starts prior to finishing runner up to Hobbs's charge. The form of that race is untested but given Okafranca's prior form I'd be very surprised if it didn't work out pretty well and I think De La Bech was value for more than his 1.25L winning margin suggests. Although this race is significantly tougher than his latest assignment, De La Bech is open to considerable improvement with only 4 starts over hurdles and 5 starts under Rules to his name and I'd be very, very surprised if his current mark of 125 proves beyond him. Moreover, he really seemed to relish his first try over 3m under Rules (Point winner over the distance) and on just his 2nd handicap start he could easily be quite a bit ahead of the handicapper. In addition, De La Bech's current rating of 125 definitely won't get him into the Pertemps Final at the Cheltenham Festival and he will need to increase his handicap rating quite close to a stone before March and there is no doubt in my mind that connections see tomorrow as the perfect opportunity to at least accomplish some of that task. Tom O'Brien, who was on board for his impressive Novice Hurdle success two starts back, takes over in the saddle again as I presume Richard Johnson is suspended and with conditions posing no issue and his trainer in good form I'm very confident of a massive showing from this 6 year old and I think he'll take an awful lot of stopping in his hat trick bid.

    Good luck with this. Had him penciled down myself, has a cracking chance IMO. On @ 7s.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 395 ✭✭handsfree


    BQQ wrote: »
    100/1 winner at Wetherby :eek::eek:

    Where were you for that one Rossom!! ;)

    In the next Tanya Stephenson tipped up De La Bech. Not a good omen!!


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,547 ✭✭✭droidman123


    Slattsy wrote: »
    Slattsy wrote: »
    Howay the lads :)

    2 for me today.

    1.15 Warwick - Rody 5/1

    Won well last time out, quite handily in my eyes and although he's gone up 10lb and has top weight here, he should give a good account. Finished 2nd to the decent yardstick Drumshambo on his first start this year, and even though he improved from that, i actually think that form would have been good enough to win this race, where a lot of them can be ruled out.

    [COLOR="Red"]Wins well[/COLOR] :)
    Nice one!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,547 ✭✭✭droidman123


    Okafranca e-w : )


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,173 ✭✭✭hucklebuck


    hucklebuck wrote: »
    My dad got a tip for Holywell 7/1 in the 2:35 in Warwick from a relative of Maurice Lenihan.

    **** it anyway, 2nd. The winner had the inside all the way around and snagged the rail for the run it. Thought Linehan should have eyeballed the winner for company as he always seemed to pick up when he was in company.

    He was under pressure a long way out and may have won had he not booted the 2nd last out of the ground.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,961 ✭✭✭✭Mimikyu


    This post has been deleted.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,173 ✭✭✭hucklebuck


    rossom wrote: »
    Have done a pretty sizable place lay on The Package at 1.6 in the 2.25 Warwick. He's having his first start for hurdles in nearly 4 years and this is clearly an afterthought by the Pipe team. I'm pretty confident he won't get close to making the frame.

    Well done Rossom, great shout


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,115 ✭✭✭Backstreet Moyes


    hucklebuck wrote: »
    **** it anyway, 2nd. The winner had the inside all the way around and snagged the rail for the run it. Thought Linehan should have eyeballed the winner for company as he always seemed to pick up when he was in company.

    He was under pressure a long way out and may have won had he not booted the 2nd last out of the ground.

    That rail always seems to be worth a length or two on the run in. I thought hollywell was gone in front near the line but it was probably the camera angle. Three bets and three seconds frustrating day so far.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,547 ✭✭✭droidman123


    That was sweet!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,173 ✭✭✭hucklebuck


    Geraghty is my favourite jockey and he has taken two brilliant sits today and goes on to win, granted decent horses but he nearly came out the side twice.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,547 ✭✭✭droidman123


    That was sweet!
    I meant about oscara dara above.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,775 ✭✭✭✭Slattsy


    Slattsy wrote: »
    Howay the lads :)

    2 for me today.

    1.15 Warwick - Rody 5/1

    Won well last time out, quite handily in my eyes and although he's gone up 10lb and has top weight here, he should give a good account. Finished 2nd to the decent yardstick Drumshambo on his first start this year, and even though he improved from that, i actually think that form would have been good enough to win this race, where a lot of them can be ruled out.

    2.20 Kempton - Oscara Dara (6/1)

    There's been a lot of chat about value around here lately.... and with that in mind im putting this fella up. I priced him up at around 3/1. I think he has the best form in the race. His first run this season was over fences and he reverts back to hurdles here.
    He finished 2nd on Cantlow over fences that day (won the other day). On his final race last year over hurdles he beat Malt Master (won yesterday) at the Punchestown festival and before that finished 4th in an Aintree Grade 2 event beaten 15 lenghts by Darlan (CH fav now) and had Captain Conan (Arkle 3rd fav) and the good Prospect Wells ahead of him.

    Step up in trip will suit here and no ground issues. Im expecting a good show.
    Good luck if you follow.

    Giggidy :D

    9 times out 10 i'd have stuck a few quid on the double too, but hey i cant complain.
    Hope some of ye were on.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 82 ✭✭Graupel


    PP down, Typical


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    Graupel wrote: »
    PP down, Typical
    Not for me


    Oscar Prairie ran like a pig


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 878 ✭✭✭sonnky


    Ive had a few quid on The New One by upto and including 6 lengths at 9/4!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,451 ✭✭✭Overthelast


    Slattsy wrote: »

    Giggidy :D

    9 times out 10 i'd have stuck a few quid on the double too, but hey i cant complain.
    Hope some of ye were on.
    I wish I had backed them, let alone the double! Well done Slattsy


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 82 ✭✭Graupel


    The new one looks a serious prospect


  • Advertisement
Advertisement