Latest Red C Poll Results

Death and Taxes

FG 29(+1) , Labour 13(-1),FF 21(+1),SF 16(-1)
Huge support for legislating for the X-Case 64% want legislation to include either threat of suicide or abortion for any reason.
47% Disagree with Belfast City Councils decison on the Union Flag.

Those are the main points I will leave my own personal views to another post.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2013/0110/majority-support-x-case-legislation-poll.html

Death and Taxes

Happy to see the decline in the SF vote, I consider them to be a shower of economic illiterates and general populists.

The growing support for FF is worrying, could it be that centre right voters are trapped with no real alternative to FG/Lab?

The abortion results are surprising, particularly those who want to go well beyond the X-Case limitations.

Amirani

WileyCoyote wrote: »

The abortion results are surprising, particularly those who want to go well beyond the X-Case limitations.

Surely those numbers can't be ignored?

Death and Taxes

NiallSparky wrote: »

Surely those numbers can't be ignored?

One would hope not, but experience tells us different.

Chips Lovell

That RTE story is reporting different swing figures:

With the Dáil back next week the poll shows Fine Gael at 29%, up one point since last December, Labour down one point at 13%; Fianna Fail at 21%, up one point and Sinn Fein at 16%, down one point since last May.
Independents and others at 21% are unchanged.

Death and Taxes

Vladimir Kurtains wrote: »

That RTE story is reporting different swing figures:

Me Bad, figures I quoted initially are since last general election! Apologies. Correct figures now in place.

Manach

The threat to the life of the unborn/abortion issue is one garnering a lot of airtime. Any substantive changes be brought forward, leaving aside the current legisilative process for the X case, would entail a referendum. The numbers in favour of such would likely drop, if only due the Government's usual hamfistedness in such matters, as seen in the Children's referendum.

Chips Lovell

Ah, OK. Figures are surprising in that case. You would have thought Labour would have gotten a bit of a hammering after two years of austerity budgets (as junior partners are wont to get). Swing against SF is unexpected too.

Valetta

NiallSparky wrote: »

Surely those numbers can't be ignored?

I certainly don't think the government should be legislating on the basis of opinion polls.
Far too much possibility of manipulation by vested interests.

Scofflaw

Vladimir Kurtains wrote: »

Ah, OK. Figures are surprising in that case. You would have thought Labour would have gotten a bit of a hammering after two years of austerity budgets (as junior partners are wont to get). Swing against SF is unexpected too.

I wouldn't have said it was unexpected. I think a lot of Fianna Fáil voters expressed a preference for Sinn Fein in the aftermath of the disastrous 2008-2010 period, and I think that over time that support will trickle back as people find ways to allow themselves to forgive them.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Mr.Micro

WileyCoyote wrote: »

Happy to see the decline in the SF vote, I consider them to be a shower of economic illiterates and general populists.

The growing support for FF is worrying, could it be that centre right voters are trapped with no real alternative to FG/Lab?

Let FG/Lab sort out the mess of the economy and then let FF back in to destroy it all again. That is the alternative at the minute for the FF supporters. Self destructive or what? Come an election, I seriously think that those current FF supporters would think twice when it comes to placing an X for a FF candidate.

Chips Lovell

Scofflaw wrote: »

I wouldn't have said it was unexpected. I think a lot of Fianna Fáil voters expressed a preference for Sinn Fein in the aftermath of the disastrous 2008-2010 period, and I think that over time that support will trickle back as people find ways to allow themselves to forgive them.

cordially,
Scofflaw

I'd always assumed that SF would have been too out there for FF voters, even disenchanted ones and most of the FF votes went to FG in the last general election.

Nodin

NiallSparky wrote: »

Surely those numbers can't be ignored?

If they can ignore a Supreme court ruling for 20 years, they aren't going to be too worried about a poll.

Scofflaw

Vladimir Kurtains wrote: »

I'd always assumed that SF would have been too out there for FF voters, even disenchanted ones and most of the FF votes went to FG in the last general election.

Sadly, my experience is that, on the contrary, FF votes go to SF, at least on opinion polls, and it's FG that's too "out there" for FF voters. Sf have come a long way to respectability in the last few years, and many FF voters take "Fianna Fáil - the republican party" quite seriously.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Sierra Oscar

Scofflaw wrote: »

Sadly, my experience is that, on the contrary, FF votes go to SF, at least on opinion polls, and it's FG that's too "out there" for FF voters. Sf have come a long way to respectability in the last few years, and many FF voters take "Fianna Fáil - the republican party" quite seriously.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Very few of the FF votes seem to be going to SF by the looks of the opinion polling. Analyses of the last GE shows that the vast majority of FF's voters disproportionately went to FG and Labour. I guess then you have the case that dissasisfied Labour voters are splitting between FF & SF.

I think SF have peaked for the time being though. Their window of opportunity regarding the overtaking of FF has closed, and now I would imagine that they will start to focus upon targeting Labour voters rather than FF voters. I think we could be entering a period whereby there is very little movement in the vote for SF / FF regarding opinion polling.

Hopefully the results of the abortion poll will give the government the resolve necessary to legislate for the issue.

COYW

Surprised by these figures. Happy to see a further decline in the votes for SF but really surprised at the same time, as I expected them to get a nice lift from protest votes after the budget. Another slight increase in popularity for FF, which isn't too much of a surprise. I think they will get back up to the mid twenties by the end of the year.

Wider Road

Mr.Micro wrote: »

Let FG/Lab sort out the mess of the economy and then let FF back in to destroy it all again. That is the alternative at the minute for the FF supporters. Self destructive or what? Come an election, I seriously think that those current FF supporters would think twice when it comes to placing an X for a FF candidate.

Do you really think that FG/Labour are sorting out the economy with their own policies?

antoobrien

COYW wrote: »

Surprised by these figures. Happy to see a further decline in the votes for SF but really surprised at the same time, as I expected them to get a nice lift from protest votes after the budget. Another slight increase in popularity for FF, which isn't too much of a surprise. I think they will get back up to the mid twenties by the end of the year.

It think the swing to back FF can be put at least partially attributed to the government essentially continuing with the same set of financial policies that FF were since 2009 (the devil you know and all that).

SF will also not be helped by the fact that the French are proving that "tax the rich" is a mistake, as high earners are leaving the country (we already have a fair few tax exiles).

Amirani

Valetta wrote: »

I certainly don't think the government should be legislating on the basis of opinion polls.
Far too much possibility of manipulation by vested interests.

I wouldn't advocate legislating purely based on opinion polls. Some sort of action does need to be taken in lieu of that though.

rightwingdub

WileyCoyote wrote: »

Happy to see the decline in the SF vote, I consider them to be a shower of economic illiterates and general populists.

The growing support for FF is worrying, could it be that centre right voters are trapped with no real alternative to FG/Lab?

The abortion results are surprising, particularly those who want to go well beyond the X-Case limitations.

FF are not a centre right party, no self respecting person with centre right political views should touch FF with a bargepole.

Mr.Micro

Wider Road wrote: »

Do you really think that FG/Labour are sorting out the economy with their own policies?

Whatever they are doing it is at least going forward and back to being debt free. People must be feeling better to even consider voting for FF again so I am sure FF will be encouraging the FG/Labour coalition so as to try and reap the spoils in the next election and then ruin it all again if elected with a Dail full of auctioneers and property developers.

RDM_83 again

WileyCoyote wrote: »

FG 29(+1) , Labour 13(-1),FF 21(+1),SF 16(-1)
Huge support for legislating for the X-Case 64% want legislation to include either threat of suicide or abortion for any reason.
47% Disagree with Belfast City Councils decison on the Union Flag.

Those are the main points I will leave my own personal views to another post.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2013/0110/majority-support-x-case-legislation-poll.html

I don't think the results are particularly surprising in terms of the abortion debate, really especially as they use the X case in the example
e.g I personally probably would be in favour of legislation in terms of the X case.
Not trying to drag the thread of topic however just pointing out that this poll would probably place me on one side of a debate where where I am unsure I actually fit.

In terms of the rest of the changes its not really anything interesting, a 1% change in a 1000 people poll isn;t particularly significant.
I don't know this but has the first pay slips since the budget came out yet that may show an impact?

Wider Road

Mr.Micro wrote: »

Whatever they are doing it is at least going forward and back to being debt free. People must be feeling better to even consider voting for FF again so I am sure FF will be encouraging the FG/Labour coalition so as to try and reap the spoils in the next election and then ruin it all again if elected with a Dail full of auctioneers and property developers.

I'm not trying to be smart but is your reply a yes or a know to my question?

Dob74

WileyCoyote wrote: »

FG 29(+1) , Labour 13(-1),FF 21(+1),SF 16(-1)
Huge support for legislating for the X-Case 64% want legislation to include either threat of suicide or abortion for any reason.
47% Disagree with Belfast City Councils decison on the Union Flag.

Those are the main points I will leave my own personal views to another post.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2013/0110/majority-support-x-case-legislation-poll.html

It's clear what the people want. A ff/fg coalition,
Time for Labour to get out of government and build so they won't need fg or ff to form a government.
Taxes, abortion, welfare ff/fg mirror each other. While Labour have a completely opposite view.

Time for Gilmore to have some guts and pull the plug on this joke of a coalition.
If he doesn't hopefully others in the party will bring him down.

raymon

Dob74 wrote: »

It's clear what the people want. A ff/fg coalition,
.

How is it clear ? How do you come to this conclusion.

I think it is clear that 79% of "the people " you refer to would like to see FF not in government at all.

FF savagely bankrupted the country and should be volunteering for homeless charities to try to start to make amends for the hardship they caused.

antoobrien

raymon wrote: »

I think it is clear that 79% of "the people " you refer to would like to see FF not in government at all.

By the same (lack of) logic 71% of them don't want to see FG in government.

raymon

antoobrien wrote: »

By the same (lack of) logic 71% of them don't want to see FG in government.

Exactly , 71% would not give their first preference to FG according to this poll.

I don't see your point ?

antoobrien

raymon wrote: »

Exactly , 71% would not give their first preference to FG according to this poll.

I don't see your point ?

Not surprised in the least about that.

Somehow it's now unfair to say that the people don't want the two biggest parties (according to this poll) in coalition but they did want exactly just two years ago.

The conclusion is that the favoured government could be FG & FF is not without merit. That does not change the fact that from a practical & political pov it is not a unrealistic government, in the same way as they (according to this poll) see the willingly financially deluded SF as a better option than a labour party that were stupid enough to promise the financially impossible at the last election (no cuts to SW).

hallelujajordan

antoobrien wrote: »

Not surprised in the least about that.

Somehow it's now unfair to say that the people don't want the two biggest parties (according to this poll) in coalition but they did want exactly just two years ago.

The conclusion is that the favoured government could be FG & FF is not without merit. That does not change the fact that from a practical & political pov it is not a unrealistic government, in the same way as they (according to this poll) see the willingly financially deluded SF as a better option than a labour party that were stupid enough to promise the financially impossible at the last election (no cuts to SW).

Agree, and have been saying so for a while . . It really is time that we had an opportunity to select a government based on right / left policy positions and not on Civil War / republicanism / history.

Labour / FG will never maintain a stable coalition because politically they are so far apart .. the effect is obvious when you look at the Labour party numbers in the opinion polls and when this reaches a tipping point we will see a crash, either with a Labour party leadership heave or a government collapse (or both).

raymon

antoobrien wrote: »

.

The conclusion is that the favoured government could be FG & FF is not without merit. .

Where is the logic for this conclusion?

There is absolutely no basis that the electorate would favour a FG/FF coalition

antoobrien

raymon wrote: »

Where is the logic for this conclusion?

There is absolutely no basis that the electorate would favour a FG/FF coalition

The same logic that sees you seem to think that 79% have rejected FF for government. The total poll for FF & FG is 50%.

The total FG & lab is 42%.

So, by your earlier logic 58% of the public have rejected FG & Lab, where only 50% have rejected FG & FF.

raymon

antoobrien wrote: »

The same logic that sees you seem to think that 79% have rejected FF for government. The total poll for FF & FG is 50%.

The total FG & lab is 42%
So, by your earlier logic 58% of the public have rejected FG & Lab, where only 50% have rejected FG & FF.

Where are you getting these figures from ????

The poll was a simple poll for first preferences.

These other calculations you are dreaming up have no merit whatsoever

antoobrien

raymon wrote: »

The poll was a simple poll for first preferences.

These other calculations you are dreaming up have no merit whatsoever

If so then this statement is equally lacking in merit:

raymon wrote: »

I think it is clear that 79% of "the people " you refer to would like to see FF not in government at all.

raymon

antoobrien wrote: »

If so then this statement is equally lacking in merit:

I would consider it unlikely that transfers would go to the party that ruined our economy . Although technically possible

antoobrien

raymon wrote: »

I would consider it unlikely that transfers would go to the party that ruined our economy . Although technically possible

I suggest you go back to the election results and see how many FF TDs were elected on the first count. I think you'll find the number was low, so even at their lowest ebb they were still getting transfers.

hallelujajordan

raymon wrote: »

I would consider it unlikely that transfers would go to the party that ruined our economy . Although technically possible

It's not even about transfers. . the logic of your argument (twisted logic - but started by you) is that if someone pledges a first preference in the opinion polls then they want to see that party in government (and if they dont, then they dont want to see them in government. .

By that logic, anttoobrien points out that more people favour FG/FF than favour FG/LAB - a reasonable assertion in the context of what is twisted logic to begin with . .

I prefer the logic that a FF/FG coalition makes sense because they are the only two potential coalition parties who are not determined to drive the bus in opposite directions.

I'm personally more interested in just making an assessment of the results and what they tell us.. Numerous opinion polls have now established that FF are the second most popular party in the country and well ahead of Labour / Sinn Fein. This is huge progress compared to where we were at the last election and is testament to the solid work Martin is doing in rebuilding FF. It is also (thankfully) at odds with the many predictions on here (and elsewhere) that FF would be in single figures (or have disappeared) by now. More importantly, Fianna Fail will continue to grow as their recovery strategy takes hold and as the cracks in the FG/LAB coalition are further exposed.

Mr.Micro

hallelujajordan wrote: »

I


I prefer the logic that a FF/FG coalition makes sense because they are the only two potential coalition parties who are not determined to drive the bus in opposite directions.

FF equates to logic? Since when? Can you seriously believe that FF were/are logical, based on what, after the previous 11 years, culminating in ruin for the country. What makes Labour so bad compared to that? Would a logical person vote for a party with the same leadership that was part of that administration that ruined the economy, particularly the leader Martin who was a minister for all that period? I think not.

hallelujajordan

Mr.Micro wrote: »

FF equates to logic? Since when? Can you seriously believe that FF were/are logical, based on what, after the previous 11 years, culminating in ruin for the country. What makes Labour so bad compared to that? Would a logical person vote for a party with the same leadership that was part of that administration that ruined the economy, particularly the leader Martin who was a minister for all that period? I think not.

It seems that 21% of the Irish electorate are not logical on your analysis . .

I don't believe that Labour are either 'bad' or 'illogical', I just don't agree with their politics; I have a real issue with their links to the trade unions and I despise the way both they and the TU's seem to disproportionately represent those members who work in the public sector.

Moreover, I believe that the FF policy positions are more closely aligned to those of FG and that a FF/FG coalition would be more stable and more sensible.

raymon

hallelujajordan wrote: »

It seems that 21% of the Irish electorate are not logical on your analysis . .

I don't believe that Labour are either 'bad' or 'illogical', I just don't agree with their politics; I have a real issue with their links to the trade unions and I despise the way both they and the TU's seem to disproportionately represent those members who work in the public sector.

Moreover, I believe that the FF policy positions are more closely aligned to those of FG and that a FF/FG coalition would be more stable and more sensible.

FF and sensible in the same sentence, you are joking . You must be.

FF have ruined the economy completely.

Their leader was part of the cabinet that ruined the country .

Sierra Oscar

raymon wrote: »

I would consider it unlikely that transfers would go to the party that ruined our economy . Although technically possible

The Dublin West by-election quite clearly showed that the party was recovering when it came to receiving transfers, and that was held over a year ago. It should be interesting to analyse the transfer pattern in the Meath East by-election.

Transfers are crucial - the lack of transfers meant that FF lost out on a dozen or so marginal seats in GE11.

sure joe

NiallSparky wrote: »

Surely those numbers can't be ignored?

they can its an opinion poll which counts for nothing.

sure joe

Mr.Micro wrote: »

Let FG/Lab sort out the mess of the economy and then let FF back in to destroy it all again. That is the alternative at the minute for the FF supporters. Self destructive or what? Come an election, I seriously think that those current FF supporters would think twice when it comes to placing an X for a FF candidate.

you really believe fg/lab or sorting out the economy. the only policy they are actively following is emmigration. they make f.f look competent. if the opposition ask a question f.g's esteemed leader mentions jean mcconville or yous got us into this mess. i suppose when you have no idea what is happening. best to try and deflect attention, than discuss something you cant understand

Mr.Micro

sure joe wrote: »

you really believe fg/lab or sorting out the economy. the only policy they are actively following is emmigration. they make f.f look competent. if the opposition ask a question f.g's esteemed leader mentions jean mcconville or yous got us into this mess. i suppose when you have no idea what is happening. best to try and deflect attention, than discuss something you cant understand

What exactly is your proposal then to sort the economy? Also what exactly can/could FG/Lab do, other than the tight fiscal policy that they have to currently adapt. Emigration is as a result or legacy of the disaster that FF created, and where is the money supposed to come from, since FF spent it all and the billions that were borrowed.

Service exports send total 2012 exports 5% higher

http://m.rte.ie/news/touch//2013/0111/exporters-business.html

The current lot must be doing something right.

Silentcorner

Mr.Micro wrote: »

What exactly is your proposal then to sort the economy




http://m.rte.ie/news/touch//2013/0111/exporters-business.html

The current lot must be doing something right.

So it is the responsibility of each individual citizen of this state to draft their own economic policy?

Of course they would get something right...they aren't a complete shower of drunken illiterate's....

FF/Fg/Lab are cut from the same cloth, they are self serving, the fact that they poll so well just demonstrates the size of the task the rest of us have in front of us.

It seems are that the organisations lending us our money are not convinced our Fg/Lab government are performing well

The sad reality for me is, it the Troika ran candidates they'd get my vote


http://www.thejournal.ie/euroleaks-troika-legal-services-750176-Jan2013/

http://www.thejournal.ie/irish-banks-fragile-troika-750067-Jan2013/

http://www.thejournal.ie/euroleaks-troika-concerns-public-sector-job-cuts-749547-Jan2013/

http://www.thejournal.ie/troika-council-budgets-break-even-legal-749957-Jan2013/

http://businessetc.thejournal.ie/spending-limits-for-government-departments-euroleaks-749869-Jan2013/

http://www.thejournal.ie/euroleaks-troika-wants-public-pay-cut-749378-Jan2013/

http://www.thejournal.ie/troika-health-doctors-pay-euroleaks-749498-Jan2013/


I do have to question the timing of this leak...maybe because of the intense behind the scenes negotiations regarding our debt perhaps?

Sully

I think the figures show little or no change amongst the parties. Good news for the government parties, bad news for the opposition - in particular, Sinn Fein who are up against Fianna Fail. Sinn Fein should be running away with this and taking the governments tough budgets, austerity measures and the downfall of Fianna Fail.

I don't think the message about Sinn Fein implementing austerity, water and property taxes in the North is actually known by many in the South East, so I think its a massive failing on their part.

Mr.Micro

Silentcorner wrote: »

So it is the responsibility of each individual citizen of this state to draft their own economic policy?

Of course they would get something right...they aren't a complete shower of drunken illiterate's....

FF/Fg/Lab are cut from the same cloth, they are self serving, the fact that they poll so well just demonstrates the size of the task the rest of us have in front of us.

It seems are that the organisations lending us our money are not convinced our Fg/Lab government are performing well

The sad reality for me is, it the Troika ran candidates they'd get my vote


http://www.thejournal.ie/euroleaks-troika-legal-services-750176-Jan2013/

http://www.thejournal.ie/irish-banks-fragile-troika-750067-Jan2013/

http://www.thejournal.ie/euroleaks-troika-concerns-public-sector-job-cuts-749547-Jan2013/

http://www.thejournal.ie/troika-council-budgets-break-even-legal-749957-Jan2013/

http://businessetc.thejournal.ie/spending-limits-for-government-departments-euroleaks-749869-Jan2013/

http://www.thejournal.ie/euroleaks-troika-wants-public-pay-cut-749378-Jan2013/

http://www.thejournal.ie/troika-health-doctors-pay-euroleaks-749498-Jan2013/


I do have to question the timing of this leak...maybe because of the intense behind the scenes negotiations regarding our debt perhaps?

The point being that people complain but often there is no easy, one step simple solution and do not have any idea what should be done. It will take years to fix things, if ever, and the rot is still there in the banks, County councils and the greedy legal types, each one needs urgent reform that will take forever. It was/is a virtual impossible situation that the current Government inherited, never before seen in the history of the state so there is no manual to guide the Government but pure determination.

Silentcorner

Mr.Micro wrote: »

The point being that people complain but often there is no easy, one step simple solution and do not have any idea what should be done. It will take years to fix things, if ever, and the rot is still there in the banks, County councils and the greedy legal types, each one needs urgent reform that will take forever. It was/is a virtual impossible situation that the current Government inherited, never before seen in the history of the state so there is no manual to guide the Government but pure determination.

Well there is the advice of the Troika, there are plenty examples of prudent fiscal policy...Germany/Scandinavia/hell even Iceland (referring to their response to the financial crisis of course)...

The rot has been protected, it hasn't been touched....

"Greedy legal types"- you would imagine that seeing the state is the biggest purchaser of legal advice it this would be the area the government would look to reform first....what did we get....nothing...nada...

People have every right to complain, because despite the economic depression we still are producing multi millionaire politicians...

Recovery from the situation we find ourselves is complex, so begin at the very top...

You are right it will take years even decades...at this pace...

sure joe

Mr.Micro wrote: »

The point being that people complain but often there is no easy, one step simple solution and do not have any idea what should be done. It will take years to fix things, if ever, and the rot is still there in the banks, County councils and the greedy legal types, each one needs urgent reform that will take forever. It was/is a virtual impossible situation that the current Government inherited, never before seen in the history of the state so there is no manual to guide the Government but pure determination.

speaking of reforms in the election f.g promised plenty and so far have delivered none. instead they have continued with the f.f policies that they were so quick to deride when in opposition. every step they have taken so far is anti-business, anti-employment and is old and tired. the pure lack of any creativity, imagination or guts amazes and dissapoints me.

padd b1975

Nodin wrote: »

If they can ignore a Supreme court ruling for 20 years, they aren't going to be too worried about a poll.

How many of those 20 years were FG in power?

I think the present administration has moved as quickly as possible considering the car crash of a country they were handed.

sure joe

padd b1975 wrote: »

How many of those 20 years were FG in power?

I think the present administration has moved as quickly as possible considering the car crash of a country they were handed.

as quickly as possible with what exactly

Nodin

padd b1975 wrote: »

How many of those 20 years were FG in power?

I think the present administration has moved as quickly as possible considering the car crash of a country they were handed.

FG were in for three, Labour five if memory serves. My own feeling on the matter is that they'd act in similar "kick it into touch" fashion to FF were it not for recent well publicised events.