Petroceltic

Inevitable Pelican

Interesting article on the company and what to look forward to for 2013 http://tradingresearchpoint.co.uk/2013/01/09/petroceltic-pci-2013-exploration-is-the-key/

Grecco

Going to be an interesting year for PCI. Maybe we might get reward for our patience.

Cavanjack

Grecco wrote: »

Going to be an interesting year for PCI. Maybe we might get reward for our patience.

It would want to some reward for waiting since 2009 but whats another year.

neil.p.b

Joined you boys this morning. Should see at least 8.7 shortly

Comordha

Lads, I think there is a long thread already on PCI. Probably shouldn't start a new one. Anyway here's further recent info.

All saying 2013 could be a game-changer.

HSBC initiates with a target price of 12p and an overweight rating.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch start coverage on Petroceltic with strong buy and top pick for 2013 with price target of 15p.

Davy have a price target of 21p and Goodbody Strockbrokers have one of 13p.

Grecco

Comordha wrote: »

Lads, I think there is a long thread already on PCI. Probably shouldn't start a new one.er.

Maybe this great moderator we have might do something about it

delux

HSBC initiates with a target price of 12p and an overweight rating.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch start coverage on Petroceltic with strong buy and top pick for 2013 with price target of 15p.

Davy have a price target of 21p and Goodbody Strockbrokers have one of 13p

Sorry to be a bit negative here, but those brokers are the same ones who were tipping Irish bank shares a few years ago and putting price targets on them. You can't rely on their views. I'm not sure if you were investing back then but I certainly remember them.

Comordha

Everyone knows not to trust a broker fully but if you read their sum of the parts analysis you xcan see where the value lies in this stock.

Comordha

Bad news on the Horizon

From the LEX Column in the FT today

Algeria's oil and gas - hostile environment

"Things could be more tricky for Petroceltic, which only a few weeks ago got approval to develop the Ain Tsila gasfield, 140km west of In Amenas. With an estimated 2tn cubic feet of gas, Ain Tsila is the Dublin-based explorer's main asset, though it is at a much earlier stage of development than In Amenas, with the first gas not due until 2017. Petroceltic is looking to farm out an 18 per cent stake (it currently owns 57 per cent alongside Sonatrach and Italy's Enel). Security concerns may now loom larger in any deal."

power101

From Goodbody

Gearing up for sustained production

Combining the production of Melrose with Petroceltic's development and exploration assets would appear to address the pre-merger market concerns over the lack of liquidity in the former and the limited funding at the latter's disposal. With cashflow from the Melrose production base not only serving to fund the combined exploration programme, but also the development of Ain Tsila (Algeria), the logic for the merger becomes all the more apparent, in our view.

That said, guided gross capex to initial Q3'17 production in Algeria of $1.5bn ($0.85bn net to PCI based on interest of 56.6%) would point to forecast net debt of $1.0bn by 2017. While a new debt facility will help to bridge that funding 'gap', a further farm-down of an 18.375% stake is planned. Net Ain Tsila capex as a result would reduce to $0.37bn (includes $200m 'carry') and FY17 net debt to $0.6bn. With potential value, ahead of material capex spend in Algeria, to be extracted from exploration, notably in Kurdistan (16% equity, unrisked NAV of 7.5p per prospect drilled in 2013/14), catalysts for the share price are numerous.

Aligning our valuation with the risked NAV derived from the anticipated lower equity in Algeria (38.25%) establishes a post-merger price target of 12.5p. That compares to a current share price of 7.4p and the derived value for Algeria of 7.1p, suggesting a 'free option' on exploration and debt adjusted production. Ahead of defined catalysts, we maintain our Buy recommendation.

Grecco

Cavanjack wrote: »

It would want to some reward for waiting since 2009 but whats another year.

I`m not bothered by the wait as my average is 5.2p Its all good from here on
:D

Comordha

Nice averaging down, I couldn't risk putting anymore into this one.

Grecco

Comordha wrote: »

Nice averaging down, I couldn't risk putting anymore into this one.

Oh I wouldn't blame you, this share would test the patience of a saint!!

Inevitable Pelican

New article up Disappointment: A buying opportunity

http://tradingresearchpoint.co.uk/2013/02/06/petroceltic-exploration-pci-disappointment-a-buying-opportunity/

Comordha

Was always going to be a duster. The only thing that matters with this share right now is getting the gas out of Algeria and the Kurdistan play and hopefully reducing the number of shares in issue.

Inevitable Pelican

Wonder if they'll be included in this http://uk.advfn.com/newspaper/tom-winnifrith/16170/four-resource-stocks-with-99-downside-potential-you-must-sell-today-special-report-out-at-3-pm-today

Inevitable Pelican

Tullow Oil reviewed here http://tradingresearchpoint.co.uk/2013/02/13/tullow-oil-2012-results-analysis/

Grecco

This one is getting very interesting now. Were the talk of the stock exchange over the last day
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-2324434/MARKET-REPORT-BP-eyes-600m-Petroceltic-deal.html

Personally this would value PCI at 14p/share I`d like to see it closer to 20p but who knows whats on the table yet

christeb

Maybe we'll escape with our noses intact !

Comordha

When I heard BP I thought maybe but then I read somewhere that Providence Resources was named too and I thought no way. Like other poster I think 14p is low, especially when you look at many of the valuation estimates that are out there. Kurdistan drill is coming up soon so I would imagine any large buyer would wait until after that.

Lord TSC

I was reading over the stuff sent out to me by Petroceltic today and noticed that they plan on consolidating shares within the next few weeks.

As a stock noob, is this a good or bad thing?

Cute Hoor

Teamshadowclan wrote: »

I was reading over the stuff sent out to me by Petroceltic today and noticed that they plan on consolidating shares within the next few weeks.

As a stock noob, is this a good or bad thing?

In theory this should make no difference to you, for every 25 shares you have now you will get 1 new share, and the share price should also multiply by 25, so no difference.

What might make a change is the moving of the new entity, Petroceltic PLC, from the AIM to the Main Markets in London, this should potentially increase the exposure to a broader range of investors and funds, which may have a positive (initially at least) impact on the share price.

yobr

Cute Hoor wrote: »

What might make a change is the moving of the new entity, Petroceltic PLC, from the AIM to the Main Markets in London, this should potentially increase the exposure to a broader range of investors and funds, which may have a positive (initially at least) impact on the share price.

See today's RNS move to main listing delayed at requested of their new farm in partner, renewed speculation of a take over.

http://uk.advfn.com/news/UKREG/2013/article/57616458

hedgehog2

What are peoples opinions on post consolidation share price.
Many a company tend to head south after a consolidation but petroceltic seem to be in a decent place with upcoming drills and net cash reserve.
It could possibly bring back or reach a new high by year end I am hoping,fingers crossed the bod do not feck it up to line there own pockets and squeeze us ever more .
We need some positive movement on this one as others have highlighted it would seriously test your patience.

Comordha

Oil & Gas exploration stocks are very out of favour at present. The market is chasing guaranteed yield so we don't fit in right now. As we move a little further through the investment cycle we will become popular again. Regarding what is happening, I think the consolodation is necessary as there was several billion shares in issuance. If they time it right & we get some cash from 2nd farmout and some luck in Kurdistan the price will likely find a new range post consolidation.

Bluefox21

Hmmm I really don't know what to make of this share. Like many I bought in last year (ironically,after attending the investor meeting where I was really impressed with what board had to say).

Now many are slating the board and while it is tempting I can't actually say that they have failed to deliver on anything they said they would (since I became interested). In fact, projects such as Eygpt and Italy are doing slightly better than expected and Kurdistan which I am trying not to factor into any valuation still holds very real potential. They have also refinanced, farmed out Ain Tsila and proceeded with the main market ambitions.

So if everything I could have anticipated (within reason) has happened why isn't this above 12 like I predicted :mad:

Who knows is the honest answer! Plenty of activity, plenty of positive broker ratings, quite an attractive merger and alot of drilling going on which if anything will keep the news flowing!

Nothing has been said on Kamchia which is quite interesting. In my limited exploration experience if it is a duster they like to get it out of the way quite fast. Any time last week with takeover rumours would have been an ideal way to sweep it under the carpet. In the middle of exams so please ignore if I have missed something!

I'm not in as deep as many others and bought more at 6.35 last week (average 7.20 now) so probably not as frustrated as most. Bought this with a long term view so the Bluefox21 recommendation is Hold if you are in and tentative buy if you are not! Who knows maybe someday in our lifetime this will finally reach its potential!!!

Comordha

It's the sector, not the stock or the fundamentals. Look across the board (PTR. AEX. OVG. GKP. PVR. DES. RRL) and you will see almost all Oil, Gas & Precious Metals Expoloration stocks have taken a serious hammering over the past 1-2 years. The market is behaving on a very macro level right now, reacting to extreme interest rate policies by central banks & any type of logical valuation approach has gone right out the window. The market needs to be very bullish & rational for these type of shares to do well, example being most of 2009. You can see this by looking at the S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Index.

Petroceltic has good assets and is developing them - albeit slowly - patience should pay off with this one but you might have to wait 3-5 years. If you are looking for a quick buck this is not the right share for you unless there is a takeover approach which I can't see happening once the next farmout happens.

Comordha

http://www.stockhouse.com/opinion/ticker-trax/feb/8/capital-costs-killing-off-junior-exploration-stock

But there is hope -

“Right now valuations are back down to summer 2012 lows and those were some of the lowest valuations we had seen in junior exploration stocks in over two decades. Quite likely this signals that we are near a low again (when pessimism is running rampant).”

Bluefox21

Comordha wrote: »

http://www.stockhouse.com/opinion/ticker-trax/feb/8/capital-costs-killing-off-junior-exploration-stock

But there is hope -

“Right now valuations are back down to summer 2012 lows and those were some of the lowest valuations we had seen in junior exploration stocks in over two decades. Quite likely this signals that we are near a low again (when pessimism is running rampant).”

Normally tho you wouldn't see ppl leave the sector, youd see them move towards the stronger balance sheets, proven assets etc. Now more than ever people look for value. Of course macro conditions play a part but they cannot be used as the reason for the virtual stagnation. I do feel consolidation will help open opportunities for institutional investors. I also think we may see one or two acquisitions of our own as many exploration companies struggle with financing....

Comordha

Bank of America Merill Lynch have today identified this company as a "significantly undervalued {vs. NAV}" stock on their M&A watch list.

Dubh Geannain

Reverse split happening today. 1 for 25.


Edit: Has anyone elses shares disappeared from their trading accounts? I'm with TD by the way :rolleyes:

Grecco

Only days away from the Kurdistan spud. Anyone else still holding here? (If yes you’ve got the patience of a saint )
Anyway can`t believe its down at £1.36p so close to Kurdistan, I`m so tempted to topup again now.
Is this more madness or will I finally time this right???

Grecco

Bit the bullet and went in for another 10k.
Now let the drill commence...

gordongekko

Grecco wrote: »

Bit the bullet and went in for another 10k.
Now let the drill commence...

10k in shares or money?

Grecco

10k euro which bought me just a tad over 6200 shares with tax & commission paid, I now have 40k invested here

Grecco

Share price starting to move over the last day, up to £1.51 now. An Oil strike in Kurdistan or Romania will send this one to £10

gordongekko

Grecco wrote: »

Share price starting to move over the last day, up to £1.51 now. An Oil strike in Kurdistan or Romania will send this one to £10

what will a miss do to the price?

Grecco

gordongekko wrote: »

what will a miss do to the price?

Not a lot Gekko, there is little or no value for any of Petroceltics prospects priced into the share price.

Comordha

Goldman Sachs quite upbeat on Petroceltic but I doubt it will help our plight as the market is dead set on guaranteed yield and income right now with interest rates so low.

http://www.bpcplc.com/media/22382/goldman_sachs_june_2013.pdf

Comordha

Interview with Petroceltic CFO Tom Hickey but share price still in the doldrums

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/stocktube/2153/petroceltic-very-well-advanced-with-algerian-farm-out--2153.html

ranger4

Wouldnt touch pci with a barge pole, ATM for boc and board.

gordongekko

Bound to be a rumour and news driven stock so you will see little movement without either rumours or news

Grecco

http://www.investegate.co.uk/petroceltic-intnl--pci-/rns/kurdistan-and-romania-drilling-campaigns-commence/201309020700069133M/

threadleeroy

I'm just keeping an eye out for my early departure. I've a considerable amount invested here for the last four years. Deplorable performance.

gordongekko

threadleeroy wrote: »

I'm just keeping an eye out for my early departure. I've a considerable amount invested here for the last four years. Deplorable performance.

what's your average purchase price?

threadleeroy

gordongekko wrote: »

what's your average purchase price?

Pre Consolidation it was 9.19p.

hedgehog2

Many others into this,
I sunk too much into it a while back but it has almost remained flat-lined.
Whats your thoughts on Kurdistan,how much do you expect the sp to rise or fall depending on a positive or negative result?

Comordha

Another farm-out and very little movement in the price, they need to find the motherload in Kurdistan or else there's no hope left.

ranger4

Comordha wrote: »

Another farm-out and very little movement in the price, they need to find the motherload in Kurdistan or else there's no hope left.

flogging a dead horse with this one, just an atm for boc and board.

grange mac

May be another one for the back of the wardrobe..still pondering on it...:cool:

Comordha

Have a bad feeling about the upcoming results from Kurdistan, this company has so little look / skill when it comes to drilling, the big fear however is that this is the last thing that will move this share and I think it might be wipe-out for investors if it is a duster. Algerian gas site cost too much in the end to develop & board didn't realize worthwhile value. Prospective investors beware.