Property to fall by 20% in 2013 - Fitch

books4sale

http://www.rte.ie/news/2013/0108/fitch-negative-on-irish-property-market-business.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9789129/Irish-house-prices-to-fall-another-20pc-warns-Fitch.html

Looks like more bad news for property in 2013.

Kind of expected really.

Anyone who thinks property has stabilised needs their head checked.

Cookie_Monster

books4sale wrote: »

Anyone who thinks property has stabilised needs their head checked.

but the newspapers said it would go up, why would they lie...

coolshannagh28

Introducing a property tax on the downslope of one of the worst property crashes in history seems to me a special kind of madness .
A 20 % fall would not be a surprise and would finish our already bust banks and I suppose at this stage its no more than this sort of decision deserves.

Cavehill Red

Cookie_Monster wrote: »

but the newspapers said it would go up, why would they lie...

They didn't lie. They reported what the 'experts' said. Now some of the 'experts' are saying prices will fall. And now the newspapers are reporting that. Don't shoot the messenger.

Farmer Pudsey

So Fitch is telling us that the fall in house prices is again going to accelerate after slowing during 2011.It is saying that house prices that are back to about 2000 levels are going to nose dive next year. This it seems to suggest will be due to repossions and insolvency.

It is saying that the average house in Cork will fall 40K in Dublin 50-70K. It is telling us that the average house in rural Ireland will drop back to about 80K. This seem to indicate a total market collapse as in that there will be no buyers available. It seems to suggest that as the market collapse that the banks will continue to reposses and sell houses in a failed market.

I hope they are right I have a bit of savings ( not a huge amount) and now that deposit intrest rates are falling a cheap house might be a good investment especially as I am not exposed to house investment at present.

There is an old saying ''it an ill wind that dose not blow some good''

thebman

No sh**, few want mortgages and half the ones that do, can't qualify.

If there is any uptake in Irish house purchasing, I would expect it to come from abroad from countries with healthy banking systems.

Cookie_Monster

Cavehill Red wrote: »

They didn't lie. They reported what the 'experts' said. Now some of the 'experts' are saying prices will fall. And now the newspapers are reporting that. Don't shoot the messenger.

I meant two weeks ago or so when it was reported prices had risen slightly and the papers were falling over themselves to say property was on the recovery etc etc etc
I was being facetious anyway, it's entirely in newpapers interests to talk up property as they make so much out of advertising it when it's on the up

AlekSmart

thebman wrote: »

No sh**, few want mortgages and half the ones that do, can't qualify.

If there is any uptake in Irish house purchasing, I would expect it to come from abroad from countries with healthy banking systems.

Strangely enough,I have had two seperate family groups of Indian businessfolk travel with me in the past week...."Just to look at properties for sale "

In both cases,the menfolk were quite happy to chat about their view that it was a good time to purchase houses to rent in Dublin.

Both groups were from the UK,Bradford and London,and were keen to learn as much as possible about the area's public transport links,schools,shops etc.

Our property market is going to change rapidly I feel,and in ways perhaps not forecast as yet

There is a market opening up,and the cash-in-handers will exploit it

hinault

Unless there is an expansion in credit for Irish domestic borrowers seeking to obtain mortgages, I can't see property prices increasing.

Does this mean that property prices will continue to decline? Perhaps.
But by 20%?

maninasia

There's not one property market. It seems pretty clear that Dublin prices will hold up fairly well and the rest of the country will continue deflating. It's all about employment and where people want/need to live and work.

gurramok

AlekSmart wrote: »

There is a market opening up,and the cash-in-handers will exploit it

Just under 50% of all house\apt purchases was via cash. There is only so much cash floating around to sustain this. http://www.independent.ie/national-news/cash-buyers-swooping-to-snap-up-property-bargains-3326621.html

maninasia wrote: »

There's not one property market. It seems pretty clear that Dublin prices will hold up fairly well and the rest of the country will continue deflating. It's all about employment and where people want/need to live and work.

So is that all of Dublin or just one specific suburb\postcode?

Chris_5339762

The good areas of Dublin will stabilise if not increase. With the upward (severe) pressure on rents, property for sale suddenly looks really cheap.

Chips Lovell

Cookie_Monster wrote: »

but the newspapers said it would go up, why would they lie...

When there are conflicting projections you would expect the media to report both of them. What do you want them to do, only report negative assessments?

gurramok

Chris_5339762 wrote: »

The good areas of Dublin will stabilise if not increase. With the upward (severe) pressure on rents, property for sale suddenly looks really cheap.

Thats if the demand is there to buy property. If the demand cannot afford property whether via cash or mortgage, prices will keep dropping even in the good areas.

power101

First quarter 2013 will tell a lot.

1) Mortgage interest relief has finished. Seemingly there were people willing to go to all sorts of lengths to get a property before that ended inlcuding paying much more than the value of the property compared to others in the area.

2) Lending hasn't improved materially for mortgages

3) Property taxes have come in. ( Although for some properties they will actually save money from the 100 they were paying)

4) Lots of mortgages and loan books have been sold off now so expect to see the new foreign investors playing less Mr nice guy with people and more Sell Sell Sell. AIB itself is in the process of clearing the decks and expects all deals to be done over the next year. This will also force lots of selling of Irish properties.

5) Lots of young people still leaving

Only good things that could pop up are if growth improves drastically and if we get a seriously good deal on our banking debt. Way more negatives than positives.

fliball123

power101 wrote: »

First quarter 2013 will tell a lot.

1) Mortgage interest relief has finished. Seemingly there were people willing to go to all sorts of lengths to get a property before that ended inlcuding paying much more than the value of the property compared to others in the area.

2) Lending hasn't improved materially for mortgages

3) Property taxes have come in. ( Although for some properties they will actually save money from the 100 they were paying)

4) Lots of mortgages and loan books have been sold off now so expect to see the new foreign investors playing less Mr nice guy with people and more Sell Sell Sell. AIB itself is in the process of clearing the decks and expects all deals to be done over the next year. This will also force lots of selling of Irish properties.

5) Lots of young people still leaving

Only good things that could pop up are if growth improves drastically and if we get a seriously good deal on our banking debt. Way more negatives than positives.

I dont know guys, this one is a bit of a mare to try and judge and for every one so called expert who says prices are going up there is one so called expert saying the contrary.

All people have to do is open their eyes and look at the factors. From what I can see the following factors will all feed into the property market both positive and negative.

Unemployment rate = stablising but still nearly 1/2 a million unemployed.
More cuts to come = Once again these are coming to an end we are near our target set by the troika
Emigration = this is shown to be about 30k (nett) a year
Baby boom over the last 2 decades. Ireland has been possible the most fertile country in the OCED
Property Prices thus far has dropped by nearly 50% since the peak. Following the trend it would suggest that property prices are leveling off and showing some increases (apparently 3 months in a row) of tiny increases in Dublin.
Rents continue to rise
Banks continue not to lend
Interest reliefs are now no longer available
New Law for bankruptcy
The continuation of the government to protect people from losing their home
All prices in most areas of society will go up.
Property Tax and water charges to be introduced.

In my opinion I think Dublin will not go down much further and by the end of 2014 the trend will start to go upwards, Surrounding areas and more advanced areas so the likes of (Wicklow, Kildare, Meath, Louth, Cork and Galway) will follow Dublin but possibly over a further 2 years.
The rest of the country god knows.

But its not fair for anyone on here to say it will go up and down with out putting factors in. People come onto boards for advise so please be careful with what you are saying. Anyone thinking of buying make sure you do your homework and I would take an approach of wait 6 months and see what has happened. But if you are paying more for rent than it would be for buying and you find the place you want go for it.

onedmc

Vladimir Kurtains wrote: »

When there are conflicting projections you would expect the media to report both of them. What do you want them to do, only report negative assessments?

We need to be careful that we may be misreading Fitch. The newspapers have a habit of producing generalizations from reports that they have only read the 'free' extract.

I wonder what exactly the Fitch report say specifically about Ireland as opposed to statement like 'there is a risk that property in the PIIGS may be 20% over priced'.

gurramok

fliball123 wrote: »

Baby boom over the last 2 decades. Ireland has been possible the most fertile country in the OCED

Whats this got to do with anything? The birth rate in 1993 was at a new low, it only started rising significantly in the last few years, toddlers don't buy houses!

fliball123 wrote: »

Unemployment rate = stablising but still nearly 1/2 a million unemployed.

Employment numbers have not risen to match any drop in unemployment. That is emigration and back to education soaking up any drop.

fliball123 wrote: »

Following the trend it would suggest that property prices are leveling off and showing some increases (apparently 3 months in a row) of tiny increases in Dublin

MIR gimmick was responsible. Wait for Q1\Q2 data onwards to see a trend.

onedmc

ok maybe I'm wrong, but still quite weak


Fitch expects the largest further house price declines for peripheral countries, particularly on the back of a bleak outlook for mortgage availability, unemployment, economic growth and consumer confidence. The agency expects house prices to decline by an additional 13% in Italy and Portugal, 15% in Spain and Greece, and 20% in Ireland. Different from Fitch house price forecasts for most countries, the house price assumption for Ireland is a conservative estimate reflecting various downside risks in the market. It is, however, also conceivable that Irish prices stabilise sooner and at a higher level than Fitch's base case assumption suggests.

Smaller further price corrections, unlikely to exceed 10%, are expected for the UK, Netherlands, France, and Belgium. In Fitch's view, Germany has the strongest house price fundamentals and is likely to see continued house price growth over the next few years. The outlook for Australian and US house prices is also relatively solid given the sound macroeconomic outlook for both countries.

The affordability outlook for new housing transactions and loan originations is generally positive given low interest rates and the material house price corrections that have occurred in many countries. Average new loan debt service capability has particularly improved in the US and Ireland, and is also slowly becoming a positive factor in other countries, e.g. Portugal and Spain.

ballyharpat

I'm looking at buying a house, in my opinion, 10% in a year will not make a whole lot of difference, if it is an investment, 10% is, or should be close to the rent for one year. If it's a private/residential purchase and the house is the right one for you, then the rent you are paying will take some money off the mortgage and you will not have to pay rent for that year. In my opinion, if someone is in a good financial position to buy, then now is probably as good a time as any.

I am not saying the drop is over, just that like the stock market, when it is close to the bottom, that's the time to purchase if you are tired of your cash sitting in an account making little to no money....it's very difficult, practically impossible to call the bottom on any market.

Mr. teddywinkles

ballyharpat wrote: »

I'm looking at buying a house, in my opinion, 10% in a year will not make a whole lot of difference, if it is an investment, 10% is, or should be close to the rent for one year. If it's a private/residential purchase and the house is the right one for you, then the rent you are paying will take some money off the mortgage and you will not have to pay rent for that year. In my opinion, if someone is in a good financial position to buy, then now is probably as good a time as any.

I am not saying the drop is over, just that like the stock market, when it is close to the bottom, that's the time to purchase if you are tired of your cash sitting in an account making little to no money....it's very difficult, practically impossible to call the bottom on any market.

Well if there is supposedly E200bn in private savings accounts in the country.
We could be in for a shock and it might go the other way too if the prices do drop much more and people do buy. And no Im not an auctioneer. Im just trying to read the market Id say whats turning people off now is this mysterious property tax, that and mortgage availability

fliball123

gurramok wrote: »

Whats this got to do with anything? The birth rate in 1993 was at a new low, it only started rising significantly in the last few years, toddlers don't buy houses!



Employment numbers have not risen to match any drop in unemployment. That is emigration and back to education soaking up any drop.



MIR gimmick was responsible. Wait for Q1\Q2 data onwards to see a trend.

Well your first point would you agree that buying a house couyld be viewed as a Long term investment and as long as the babies being born outnumber those that are dying and emigrating it means there are (or will be) more people looking for property, so simple economics at some stage the demand will go up

As for the unemployment I was just stating that currently there are nearly 1/2 a million people who are not working and would hardly be able to support a mortgage.

As for your last point where the numbers not done on actual sales. If this is the case it is not a gimmick.

I am not a pro or con property person, I think everyone will have different circumstances and opportunities. The things I outlined would have both negative and a positive affect on property prices.

gurramok

fliball123 wrote: »

Well your first point would you agree that buying a house couyld be viewed as a Long term investment and as long as the babies being born outnumber those that are dying and emigrating it means there are (or will be) more people looking for property, so simple economics at some stage the demand will go up

You need those babies to be at least 18 yrs of age and in full time employment with no debts. The early 90s crowd had the lowest birth rate in the history of the state for many years, that demand is subdued. You may have an argument in 2020 onwards where the present babies will be adults assuming they won't emigrate.

fliball123 wrote: »

As for your last point where the numbers not done on actual sales. If this is the case it is not a gimmick.

It was a gimmick, buyers fell for the suppose savings on monthly outgoings forgetting that bigger falls in the purchase price mattered more. Anyway there are no more incentives left(property tax waiver is miniscule) to lure buyers in.

antoobrien

gurramok wrote: »

It was a gimmick, buyers fell for the suppose savings on monthly outgoings forgetting that bigger falls in the purchase price mattered more.

While it's true that the end of the MIR scheme caused the an increase in sales (hence prices) that may not have otherwise happened, it's unfair to call it a gimmick, as MIR was in existence for years. If it was an item introduced for 2012 it would have been a gimmick, I'd describe it more of a mini-bubble.

It'll be interesting to see how many of the approx 16,000 mortgages that had been approved up to the end of November (average of about 175k) end up being drawn down for 2012.

OMD

Hard to see prices falling significantly from where we are now. Evidence points to stabilisation/possible rises in rents and slowing reduction/stabilisation in house prices.
What is going to change in economy that will cause a 20% drop? Note I said change before people start going on about unemoyment rates and property tax.

By the way Fitch previously said house prices would stabilise at 5.5 times average income which would put price at €200,000. Why have they changed their minds?

gurramok

antoobrien wrote: »

While it's true that the end of the MIR scheme caused the an increase in sales (hence prices) that may not have otherwise happened, it's unfair to call it a gimmick, as MIR was in existence for years. If it was an item introduced for 2012 it would have been a gimmick, I'd describe it more of a mini-bubble.

The ending of it resulted in a mini panic buying spree for a couple of months(see thread Buying a House 2012 in Accommodation forum), that is buyers who did not see the overall picture in their purchase decision who were lured in, thats a gimmick.

Idbatterim

agree with a lot of the above comments, prices may well fall back about now after the mini bubble the MIR ending created in the last few months of the year. As had been mentioned there are so many different markets, LOL at a thought of a 20% drop across the board. This is coming from someone who was shouting from the roof tops about the rip off prices on here a few years ago and Im not a home owner either...

Prices will not drop forever despite what some might believe. Also from what I have seen of the housing price register some people who have bought in my area i.e Dublin 14, Id say around mid - late 2011 - Summer 12, appear to have bagged themselves bargains, compared to what the similar houses are asking now, and before anyone says they are asking prices, YES they are, but the asking prices 9-24 months ago, seemed to be a lot lower also, for most property types.

4.legs.good

Cavehill Red wrote: »

They didn't lie. They reported what the 'experts' said. Now some of the 'experts' are saying prices will fall. And now the newspapers are reporting that. Don't shoot the messenger.

The messenger had (and still has) a big interest in "talking up" property and anything property related.

antoobrien

gurramok wrote: »

The ending of it resulted in a mini panic buying spree for a couple of months(see thread Buying a House 2012 in Accommodation forum), that is buyers who did not see the overall picture in their purchase decision who were lured in, thats a gimmick.

Gimmick: a gimmick is a special feature for the sake of having a special feature.

The ending of a scheme is not a special feature, regardless of the consequences of its ending.

Farmer Pudsey

As a matter of Intrest how much a year was the intrest relief that ended on December 31 worth /year

antoobrien

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

As a matter of Intrest how much a year was the intrest relief that ended on December 31 worth /year

It depended on status and timing. See http://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/housing/owning_a_home/buying_a_home/mortgage_interest_relief.html for information.

fliball123

gurramok wrote: »

You need those babies to be at least 18 yrs of age and in full time employment with no debts. The early 90s crowd had the lowest birth rate in the history of the state for many years, that demand is subdued. You may have an argument in 2020 onwards where the present babies will be adults assuming they won't emigrate.



It was a gimmick, buyers fell for the suppose savings on monthly outgoings forgetting that bigger falls in the purchase price mattered more. Anyway there are no more incentives left(property tax waiver is miniscule) to lure buyers in.

True you need babies to be 18 which is why I started the argument with the premise of do you take it that property can be seen as a long term investment. Most mortgages are done over 20/25 years..Also it has been proven in the past and is also coming to fruitition that during a recession the Irish go baby mad and this once again seems to be the case. I also said that once the babies being born outnumber those dying and nett emigration. Please read what I said. I have no agenda here, my points from my original post had both positives and negatives influences on the irish property market

As for the gimmick I guess you need to kind of suck it and see. the next 6 months will tell 3 months of small increases do not make a trend but if we see 9/12 months of stabilising or small increases then I for one think that in those areas seeing such a situation are at the bottom of the U.

daddymac90

Great news my 45k savings is looking bigger by the day

daddymac90

fliball123 wrote: »

True you need babies to be 18 which is why I started the argument with the premise of do you take it that property can be seen as a long term investment. Most mortgages are done over 20/25 years..Also it has been proven in the past and is also coming to fruitition that during a recession the Irish go baby mad and this once again seems to be the case. I also said that once the babies being born outnumber those dying and nett emigration. Please read what I said. I have no agenda here, my points from my original post had both positives and negatives influences on the irish property market

As for the gimmick I guess you need to kind of suck it and see. the next 6 months will tell 3 months of small increases do not make a trend but if we see 9/12 months of stabilising or small increases then I for one think that in those areas seeing such a situation are at the bottom of the U.

good point

Farmer Pudsey

antoobrien wrote: »

It depended on status and timing. See http://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/housing/owning_a_home/buying_a_home/mortgage_interest_relief.html for information.

Looking at the figures if you bought last year the tax relief is worth in the region of 13K over the next 5 years for a single person and about 20K for a couple. Allowin for value of money inflation etc in real terms it is about 10-17K depending on situtation. Will it stop completely in 2017. Would not expect that it would have influenced house prices due too excess capacity and and lack of buyers. Also bank lending was tight so I would have imagined that all the cards were with the buyers.

daddymac90

I can see alot of people just saving to buy a house with cash than get a mortgage..

gurramok

fliball123 wrote: »

True you need babies to be 18 which is why I started the argument with the premise of do you take it that property can be seen as a long term investment. Most mortgages are done over 20/25 years..Also it has been proven in the past and is also coming to fruitition that during a recession the Irish go baby mad and this once again seems to be the case. I also said that once the babies being born outnumber those dying and nett emigration. Please read what I said. I have no agenda here, my points from my original post had both positives and negatives influences on the irish property market

No need to bring up the present birth rate in your argument to support any direction in house prices, it has no bearing other than present day couples would find mortgage financing harder to come by when kids are factored in. Bring up the pre 1992 birth rate by all means to gauge the amount of possible adult buyers out there.

There are way more negatives than positives affecting the direction of prices in 2013. Will it change in 2014 onwards? We'll have a better idea this time next year.

daddymac90

easy fix for all your suggestions just save up and pay a decent deposit that will require you to take out a small enough mortgage...simple as that look after number one first then worry about birth rates,how fertile people are etc

A Primal Nut

Cookie_Monster wrote: »

I meant two weeks ago or so when it was reported prices had risen slightly and the papers were falling over themselves to say property was on the recovery etc etc etc
I was being facetious anyway, it's entirely in newpapers interests to talk up property as they make so much out of advertising it when it's on the up

And now they are falling over themselves to report that house prices will fall. It's almost as if there is no conspiracy.

AlekSmart

daddymac90 wrote: »

easy fix for all your suggestions just save up and pay a decent deposit that will require you to take out a small enough mortgage...simple as that look after number one first then worry about birth rates,how fertile people are etc

Gosh,that suggestion brings me back a bit.....:p

Once upon a time,this was the standard methodology attaching to buying a house of yer own....."Saving for a (substantial) Deposit".

It took time and application,even a bit of hard work,to amass enough to satisfy a Building Society enough to get your mortgage for the balance.

In short,property purchase was recognized and understood as not being for the faint-hearted or those "without-prospects".

Mind you,even such folks were not exactly abandoned to their fate,as the Local Authority system took up the slack there.....

Then....rather quickly it all changed,with the tiresome ould business of "saving for a deposit" was rapidly consigned to the dustbin of ancient Ireland....we haven't looked back since ?

senordingdong

TPTB still hope that by repeatedly stating that it has stabilised, will infact create stabilisation.
In much the same way that fitch or bond markets stating destabilisation, will infact cause said destabilisation.

Although 20% sounds excessive, probably the lowest possible point for some one bed house in the back arse of nowhere.

Good news for some I must say though.

OMD

gurramok wrote: »

No need to bring up the present birth rate in your argument to support any direction in house prices, it has no bearing other than present day couples would find mortgage financing harder to come by when kids are factored in. Bring up the pre 1992 birth rate by all means to gauge the amount of possible adult buyers out there.
.

I would suggest it has an effect on house prices. Parents with children, for the most part prefer to own a house rather than rent. That increases demand for property.

gurramok

OMD wrote: »

I would suggest it has an effect on house prices. Parents with children, for the most part prefer to own a house rather than rent. That increases demand for property.

Very well assuming they are not satisfied with their present accommodation, it still won't help with the financing side for a mortgage hence that demand is depressed.

rodento

Giving that the cost of living is soaring (fuel , water tax's property tax etc), and with wages and salaries due to go down for public sector

http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/public-sector-unions-tell-members-to-brace-for-hefty-payroll-cuts-219191.html

Property prices have to go down for people to be able to afford them

AlekSmart

rodento wrote: »

Giving that the cost of living is soaring (fuel , water tax's property tax etc), and with wages and salaries due to go down for public sector

http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/public-sector-unions-tell-members-to-brace-for-hefty-payroll-cuts-219191.html

Property prices have to go down for people to be able to afford them

Or perhaps for "People" to accept that not everybody will be able to,or required to,purchse their own homes going-forward.

Thos who choose to do so,may well have to embrace a far more frugal lifestyle in other areas in order to fund that Property-Ownership gig.

Bullseye1

So we can see the Property Tax going from 0.18% to 1.0% to make up the shortfall.

Farmer Pudsey

The only time people could buy house's with out savings was at the height of the boom. House purchasse was never ment to be easy. There is still a mentality out there by some buyers that you will not have to stretch youself to buy a house. This was never the reality. People always fiddled the figures if they were single.

I knew lads that borrowed part of the deposit off the credit union bought the house and had 1-3 tenents ( ever before rent a room) and managed away. there seems to be a theory by some would be buyers that you can buy a house and not be under somr financial strain this was never the way.

Buyers will again have to have a deposit, maybe they will have to paint the house again and do the lawn again themselves. But who wants to be on the OAP and living in rented accomdation.

AlekSmart

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

Buyers will again have to have a deposit, maybe they will have to paint the house again and do the lawn again themselves.

But who wants to be on the OAP and living in rented accomdation

This fear,appears on a recurring basis whenever the rent vs purchase comparisons are made.

The only caveat I have is the abysmal state of Irelands private rental accomodation market.

I'm still trying to figure out how billions of mainland Europeans were born,raised and died without ever owning their own homes.

How did these people ever manage to live,what we would term,meaningful lives...sure they must have all died young from the worry of it all ?

Is it about the definition of a Foreigner as opposed to an Irish Person....are we incapable of independent life without owning a house ?

Farmer Pudsey

AlekSmart wrote: »

This fear,appears on a recurring basis whenever the rent vs purchase comparisons are made.

The only caveat I have is the abysmal state of Irelands private rental accomodation market.

I'm still trying to figure out how billions of mainland Europeans were born,raised and died without ever owning their own homes.

How did these people ever manage to live,what we would term,meaningful lives...sure they must have all died young from the worry of it all ?

Is it about the definition of a Foreigner as opposed to an Irish Person....are we incapable of independent life without owning a house ?

We have never set up a proper rental market in Ireland. TBH I see huge social advantages in owning you own home it is one less bill you have to pay when you retire. The choice is do you pre pay for accomdation or pay as you go. I know that in the future people will work until later in life however the quality of renumeration for this work may not be as good as earlier stages in there life.

also when you factor in the rental as opposed to purchase cost in the longterm home ownership has it benifits.

AlekSmart

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

We have never set up a proper rental market in Ireland. TBH I see huge social advantages in owning you own home it is one less bill you have to pay when you retire. The choice is do you pre pay for accomdation or pay as you go. I know that in the future people will work until later in life however the quality of renumeration for this work may not be as good as earlier stages in there life.

also when you factor in the rental as opposed to purchase cost in the longterm home ownership has it benifits.

Yep your farmership,I understand all of this,all I am trying to understand is how have literally billions of Europeans managed to live their lives without all these "social advantages" ?

I'm baffled ?

murphaph

AlekSmart wrote: »

Strangely enough,I have had two seperate family groups of Indian businessfolk travel with me in the past week...."Just to look at properties for sale "

In both cases,the menfolk were quite happy to chat about their view that it was a good time to purchase houses to rent in Dublin.

Both groups were from the UK,Bradford and London,and were keen to learn as much as possible about the area's public transport links,schools,shops etc.

Our property market is going to change rapidly I feel,and in ways perhaps not forecast as yet

There is a market opening up,and the cash-in-handers will exploit it

Yep and they will be BTL landlords. Renting is not going to get any cheaper in Dublin over the coming years IMO as buying will simply not be an option (due to no lending) for the majority of those who would like to commit.