Turning progressively colder from Wednesday

Oarrack Bama

Hi all,



From Wednesday of this week the mild weather will be over and we will see a return of night time frost and ice on wet roads. Whilst not exceptionally cold the difference will be felt by everyone. Daytime temperatures will start to tumble back to normal for the time of year and by Friday should be below average.

Typical temperatures on Wednesday look like ranging 5 or 6c in the north to a balmy 8c in the south of the country.But it is at night time the difference will really take hold. Wednesday night will see the return of frost and ice to the country with temperatures hovering around freezing or a little above. By Thursday night they will be below freezing for most - maybe staying above freezing in western areas. Gentle south or southeast breezes.

Friday and the weekend look damp and cold especially further east and temperatures by day are going to struggle to 3 or 4c above freezing. Under cloud temperatures at night will hold up but only just. The east of the country should see below 0 temperatures.

Sunday looks like being very cold with temperatures maxing maybe 4 or 5c if lucky. Otherwise they could struggle above freezing. It should be generally dry but rain, sleet and snow is a probability in places under cloudy skies as a frontal system straggles the country under increasing pressure from a developing (and increasingly cold) easterly wind.

And this is where it gets tricky. No doubt it will get even colder but it's a question of how much colder? Currently favoured is an easterly wind to develop as a trough sinks south spurred on by an increasingly southern tracking jet stream (note this is getting that bit stronger with each model run). This brings the prospect of wintry showers, perhaps even snow, to the east in particular. But it's not the only outcome. Whatever happens from Wednesday the weather changes to colder more seasonal conditions and the probability is it gets gradually colder from then on with an increasing risk of sleet or snow from the east.

Take care.

Note: Forecast is blend of 00z GFS ensemble mean, 00z UKMO, 12z ECMWF, 00z GEM

Speak Now

We haven't had one of these in a while :P

Oarrack Bama

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

We haven't had one of these in a while :P

You are right. We have not had an easterly in quite a while.:cool:

Met Éireann copied my forecast this moning. Copied I tells yeh!

Larbre34

Threads already covering Forecast, short term outlook, medium term outlook, FI and making personal and community preparations for wintry outbreaks. Is this one necessary?

pistolpetes11

Larbre34 wrote: »

Threads already covering Forecast, short term outlook, medium term outlook, FI and making personal and community preparations for wintry outbreaks. Is this one necessary?

There is always an actual event thread , if this does happen then all the IMBY stuff ends up here and keeps the other threads kinda free from the chit chat ,

Rebelbrowser

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

There is always an actual event thread , if this does happen then all the IMBY stuff ends up here and keeps the other threads kinda free from the chit chat ,

On that topic, will it snow in Douglas in Cork between 1 and 1.15pm on Sunday?

Nabber

Morning frost.... This is what we have been reduced to? Damn you Atlantic.

Oarrack Bama, are you the new/old DarkMan :pac:

pistolpetes11

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

On that topic, will it snow in Douglas in Cork between 1 and 1.15pm on Sunday?

For Cork
I will default to the blanket NO response

gbee

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

On that topic, will it snow in Douglas in Cork between 1 and 1.15pm on Sunday?

I'll tell you right now it won't.

Redsunset

Cork snow shields don't stand a chance. Biscay low interacting with frigid easterlies. BOOM!:D

Larbre34

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

There is always an actual event thread , if this does happen then all the IMBY stuff ends up here and keeps the other threads kinda free from the chit chat ,

Accepted and fair enough and I enjoy them greatly, but those threads usually have an actual event to hang on at say +48 hrs, but this weekend could still easily end up at 7C with passing light showers in a SSW breeze (not Sudden Strat Warming!)

Iancar29

:rolleyes:





If im honest though i still think we'd only get a flurry here and there on higher ground unless we get those broad -8's in and a strong breeze to get some convection going!

leahyl

:D - (not getting excited.......yet....it's tough though!)

gbee

leahyl wrote: »

:D - (not getting excited.......yet....it's tough though!)

I've the snow chains, the snow grips and 2KG of salt in the jeep, plus a tow rope, I've opted not to get the snow shovel on medical grounds.

Oh I forgot candles ... there's always something.

SEPT 23 1989

leahyl

gbee wrote: »

I've the snow chains, the snow grips and 2KG of salt in the jeep, plus a tow rope, I've opted not to get the snow shovel on medical grounds.

Oh I forgot candles ... there's always something.

Good God :eek: I really hope, for your sake (not just mine!), that we do get snow!

liammur

I don't think it's going to get really cold at all, maybe a few degrees below where we are at present, but overall Bord Gais etc won't be cleaning up

gbee

Picking up East European traffic on FM. Which means we have a massive ground wave.

maquiladora

Simple version : It's going to get colder this week. Everything else including how cold, for how long, snow etc. is impossible to predict at this stage.

Entering into a period of high potential. That doesn't mean we will get anything significant. But if we do, it could be the jackpot.

midlands paranormal researcher

so ur telling us its going to snow....woohoo i hope

Larbre34

maquiladora wrote: »

Simple version : It's going to get colder this week. Everything else including how cold, for how long, snow etc. is impossible to predict at this stage.

Entering into a period of high potential. That doesn't mean we will get anything significant. But if we do, it could be the jackpot.

That's an interesting point. After we were spoiled in the 09/10 10/11, what do people now consider the jackpot? Between 87 and 09 it would have consisted of a 2 or 3 days spell of shallow lying snow with no daytime thaw. Now do we need 3 or 4 weeks of penetrating temperatures and lingering snow and ice to satisfy people? I know the snow lovers on the west coast would be happy with the former!

Me, I'd rather a 3/4 day deluge of unprecented snow over the whole country which then kindly f3cks off before the gradual thaw creates the hazards.

howlinwolf

its weird, before the big chills of 09 and 10 i was hangin onto every word when it looked like we were headin into a serious cold spell,but now i dont mind so much its like my inner child is content:) but i still cant help gettin a little excited about the next few weeks with all the ssw and easterlys being banded about. if this happened a couple of years ago i would be a jittering mess:D

one good thing is that when we hit the downward slopes on the rollercoaster(and we prob will over the next few days) i dont lose my mind like i used too:rolleyes:

maquiladora

Larbre34 wrote: »

That's an interesting point. After we were spoiled in the 09/10 10/11, what do people now consider the jackpot? Between 87 and 09 it would have consisted of a 2 or 3 days spell of shallow lying snow with no daytime thaw. Now do we need 3 or 4 weeks of penetrating temperatures and lingering snow and ice to satisfy people? I know the snow lovers on the west coast would be happy with the former!

Me, I'd rather a 3/4 day deluge of unprecented snow over the whole country which then kindly f3cks off before the gradual thaw creates the hazards.

Something like this would be my version of the jackpot.



According to Met Eireann, it was the most severe snowfall for the past two centuries. Doesn't look that impressive on that chart, the Atlantic pushing what would normally be rain into Ireland. But conditions were just the right side of marginal, and instead of rain it was a massive dumping of snow. 25 inches of snow on the level in Carrick on Suir. Imagine the height of the drifts.

Joe Public

gbee wrote: »

I've the snow chains, the snow grips and 2KG of salt in the jeep, plus a tow rope, I've opted not to get the snow shovel on medical grounds.

Oh I forgot candles ... there's always something.

What about a camera if you travel up the country to see the snow

Oarrack Bama

00z's still well on track though it's more likely to be frost rather than snow at least till the beginning of next week. Possibilities for deeper cold thereafter but a big change compared to the mild weather recently. Wednesday onward temperatures start falling away.

Larbre34

Oarrack Bama wrote: »

00z's still well on track though it's more likely to be frost rather than snow at least till the beginning of next week. Possibilities for deeper cold thereafter but a big change compared to the mild weather recently. Wednesday onward temperatures start falling away.

From Monday we'll be right back at square one, mild and moist all the way. Atlantic to prevail once again, for now anyway

kenmc

gbee

Joe Public wrote: »

What about a camera if you travel up the country to see the snow

PentaxW30 underwater weather resistant. two batteries fully charged.
Panasonic SD9 two batteries fully charged 32GB card.
Canon 5D MKII 3 batteries, in car charging capability
New this year: testing GoPro with underwater weatherproof housing, no spare batteries no charging capabilities.
@'

pistolpetes11

Larbre34 wrote: »

From Monday we'll be right back at square one, mild and moist all the way. Atlantic to prevail once again, for now anyway

We will be far from Square one , a mild interlude for a few days more , this all sounds very familiar

Rew

gbee wrote: »

New this year: testing GoPro with underwater weatherproof housing, no spare batteries no charging capabilities.
@'

I bought spurious batteries for GoPro Hero2 and 3 off ebay. The the for hero3 I got 3 batteries and an external charger (mains and car) for 30 quid. The other thing I got was the battery bacpac. With the non waterproof case you can hook it up to power and run the camera indefinitely. I got a 5000mah USB battery pack for remote charging, very handy.

Other handy tip is Rain-X on the lens of the gopro to stop beads from forming.

Rocky Bay

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

On that topic, will it snow in Douglas in Cork between 1 and 1.15pm on Sunday?

Yes it will, but only on Inchvale Close in Shamrock Lawn.

Rebelbrowser

Rocky Bay wrote: »

Yes it will, but only on Inchvale Close in Shamrock Lawn.

Actually looking at the 12z GFS this might happen! Looks like a short term upgrade to me. To my untrained eye there's a decent chance of snow to the East of a from Louth to Cork according to GFS from Sat evening through to Sunday afternoon. As this is only 102 hrs away its a possibility now on this forecast.

leahyl

All aboooooard!!!

power101

Decent upgarde on latest GFS run anyway. Easterley coming in around the 288 mark. Could be a bit of snow around the 120 hour mark aswell with the latest upgrade but will be very close unless the cold shifts further west. All in all if you want cold you'll like today's charts!

Oarrack Bama

On track folks, snow risk increasing over the weekend, back later.:cool:

heard we are heading for a big Freeze in a couple of weeks from a friend, similar to the Freeze of Christmas 2010.

Anyone else think this could be true?

pistolpetes11

Deleted User wrote: »

heard we are heading for a big Freeze in a couple of weeks from a friend, similar to the Freeze of Christmas 2010.

Anyone else think this could be true?

At the moment looking colder over the weekend , too soon to call it a big freeze

Oarrack Bama

Almost safe to say snow could well fall on east and south east coasts as early as Sunday. Not quite certain but we are nearly there. Just give it a couple of more model runs to firm up the details.

The OP is reasonable guidance given the charts.

Snowaddict

Current Operational (Deterministic) multi-model guidance points towards a very strong cold signal for NW Europe in the near term.

As of 20.30 tonight, this is the strongest cross model agreement that we have seen for a deep cold signal since the November/December 2010 episode which affected Ireland so significantly.

From a professional forecasting perspective, the outlook is exceptionally tedious, as should the ECMWF 12Z Det Guidance (tonight) verify, then Met Eireann's 18.50 is certainly erroneous - even to T+120 (Day 5) - disregarding any potential developments beyond this.

The two hurdles that we face are at both T+96 and T+144, in terms of establishing a sustained cold pattern.

However, we are still not at acceptable levels of certainty regarding such a potential cold outbreak. IF the majority of NWP Guidance shows a similar trend +24 from now, then certainty will become very high.

Further fluctuations in the NWP guidance remain highly likely!

Above all else - here's hoping that every frame of the 12Z ECMWF verifies, if not - we have seen some truly wonderful virtual winter synoptics!

SA

Villain

Welcome back SA, good post

ninebeanrows

Only seeing the ECM OP now/

But WOW

Oarrack Bama

Weathercheck wrote: »

Only seeing the ECM OP now/

But WOW

Where have you been!?:pac:

pistolpetes11

Out to 90 on the 18Z and still looking good

eskimocat

96 and 102 look good too!

solas111

I know that many serious weather watchers had a poor opinion of Positive Weather Solutions but I personally found it a useful site for long range forecasts. I accept that there is a fair bit of guesswork involved and that such forecasts could turn out to be completely wrong but it was still good fun and they did get it right quite a few times.

Is there another site out there similar to PWS?

derekon

solas111 wrote: »

I know that many serious weather watchers had a poor opinion of Positive Weather Solutions but I personally found it a useful site for long range forecasts. I accept that there is a fair bit of guesswork involved and that such forecasts could turn out to be completely wrong but it was still good fun and they did get it right quite a few times.

Is there another site out there similar to PWS?

Yeah try Mark Vogan - www.markvoganweather.com

D

Red Pepper

Bloody cold in Galway now. Car says 3 degrees C but there is frost on the cars already.

Speak Now

Red Pepper wrote: »

Bloody cold in Galway now. Car says 3 degrees C but there is frost on the cars already.

That would be about right id say.

solas111

derekon wrote: »

Yeah try Mark Vogan - www.markvoganweather.com

D

Thanks. That looks interesting.

maquiladora

Met Eireann Outlook, updated, based on the 12Z ECM, so if that downgrades then this will downgrade too, please remember that!

The weekend looks like it will be chilly, the lowest values, probably in the low single figures, will in the East with Easterly or Northeasterly breezes. There will be a good deal of dry weather with some wintry sunshine but some showers also, these turning increasingly to sleet and snow especially on Sunday. Nights will be frosty with fog and ice.

At the moment Sunday night and the early days of next week brings the threat of more significant snow to places and it will feel very cold with the winds strengthening.

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

Pangea

maquiladora wrote: »

Met Eireann Outlook, updated, based on the 12Z ECM, so if that downgrades then this will downgrade too, please remember that!

Wow nice forecast