Ante post Cheltenham

Ray Mond

Just did my 1st ante post bet. Darlan at 4/1 for champ hurdle, Jezki 5/1 supreme novice, dynaste in the rsa 5/2, Simonsig in the arkle1/1, sprintre sacre 1/2 and bobs worth 3/1 in the gold cup. Nice little pay out definitly worth €10 ... All horses very impressive LTO. And at the moment can't see anything that will touch them in each race

Can't see SS being any shorter than 1/2 tbh.

I don't really like ante post bets, took BB at 1/2 last year.

handsfree

At this moment in time I go for the following:

Supreme Novice: New Years Eve (2nd choice dodging bullets)
Neptune: Champagne fever
Arkle: Simonsig
Jewson: Captain Conan
RSA: Boston Bob

Champion Hurdle: Grandouet
World Hurdle: Monksland (though I hope Zarkander comes here)
QM Chase: SS
Ryanair: Cue Card
Gold Cup: SDC (2nd choice 1st lieutenant)

After backing Al Ferof for the KG ante post, its put me off ante post and I think I'll leave betting to the day!

Ray Mond

Yeah ante post is risky but wats a tenner or score:), I remember last year at Cheltenham some guy had €50 accum think he was a stable boy and took in a few hundred grand

premierstone

Ray Mond wrote: »

Just did my 1st ante post bet. Darlan at 4/1 for champ hurdle, Jezki 5/1 supreme novice, dynaste in the rsa 5/2, Simonsig in the arkle1/1, sprintre sacre 1/2 and bobs worth 3/1 in the gold cup. Nice little pay out definitly worth €10 ... All horses very impressive LTO. And at the moment can't see anything that will touch them in each race

None of those will be any shorther on the day imo and there is every possibility at least one will not make the festival, short priced antepost accums are a bookies wet dream

byronbay2

Ray Mond wrote: »

Just did my 1st ante post bet. Darlan at 4/1 for champ hurdle, Jezki 5/1 supreme novice, dynaste in the rsa 5/2, Simonsig in the arkle1/1, sprintre sacre 1/2 and bobs worth 3/1 in the gold cup. Nice little pay out definitly worth €10 ... All horses very impressive LTO. And at the moment can't see anything that will touch them in each race

Don't want to be nasty OP but that is an absolutely terrible bet - a 6-horse acca in December on short priced favs for all the championship races. As premierstone says, there is a strong chance of at least 1 N/R killing your bet before March. Also, come Cheltenham, there is cut-throat competition between the bookies (not to mention NRNB for the couple of weeks before) and some amazing specials are offered each day. I have no doubt that at least 1 of your fancies, should they run, will be available at a longer price on the day.
Antepost betting in general is a mugs game these days unless you have inside info about a longshot being aimed at a particular race. Backing SS @ 1/2 now is mental in the head!

Ray Mond

byronbay2 wrote: »

Don't want to be nasty OP but that is an absolutely terrible bet - a 6-horse acca in December on short priced favs for all the championship races. As premierstone says, there is a strong chance of at least 1 N/R killing your bet before March. Also, come Cheltenham, there is cut-throat competition between the bookies (not to mention NRNB for the couple of weeks before) and some amazing specials are offered each day. I have no doubt that at least 1 of your fancies, should they run, will be available at a longer price on the day.
Antepost betting in general is a mugs game these days unless you have inside info about a longshot being aimed at a particular race. Backing SS @ 1/2 now is mental in the head!

Listen it's a bit of ****ing excitement , a bit of frack thats all.!! did u not read above that I put a €10 on it I'm hardly gonna lose some sleep a few months down the line if one gets pulled out and it's void.

byronbay2

I take your point but none of your horses are going to contact much in price between now and mid-March - the only excitement is hoping (and praying) that they all make the starting tape! If you want some excitement for your tenner try a 6-horse accum tomorrow or New Year's Day. Saving that, I know a girl who will give you some excitement for a tenner!

jimjamcos

Have no intention of playing antepost until some firms go NRNB...got burnt badly on thinking Hurricane Fly, Sprinter, Big Bucks and Quevega all at lovely prices was the accumulator from Heaven last year only for The Fly to let me down, so treading carefully this year. Below are just my picks at present and thoughts until there's some NRNB or I grow a pair!! :P


Arkle Chase: Overturn ew @7/1 (Certain to go if fit and jumping, starting to doubt Arvikas pace, Barry Geraghty stated that he was impressed by Overturns Sandown performance when quizzed on Simonsigs current value). Simonsig obviously likely winner but evens is a lunatics price.

Supreme Novices Hurdle: Waaheb ew @14/1 (Not the worst run behind Jezki, Weld thinks he'll be better on good ground but so does Geraghty regarding the fav. Still looks the value though. I know plenty doubt Welds Cheltenham record but for a trainer of his ability I'd be of the opinion he'll break his hoodoo sooner or later. Hisaabaat ran ok in Triumph last year.

Champion Hurdle: Cinders and Ashes ew @ 20/1 McCain says he needs good ground, was a much shorter price two runs ago. Only ran on poor ground since and now 20/1, I'll have some of that considering Darlan who he beat in Supreme (running through hurdles) is now favourite after a fairly falsely run Christmas Hurdle...Raya Star coming 2nd proving this. The fact that McCain stated they skipped Aintree with Champion Hurdle in mind shows they think he's worthy of running a big race in it. Love Hurricane (My favourite horse) but simply can't stand to be let down by him for a 2nd year in a row and don't rate Peddlers so starting to doubt his win and whether he really suits Cheltenham as a Montjeu.

Queen Mother Champion Chase: Flemenstar ew @ 5/1 if he runs. Sprinter Scare will win no doubt.

Neptune Hurdle: Champagne Fever @ 11/1.

RSA Chase: Wouldn't be the most confident selection but couldn't be backing a horse like Dynaste who could turn up at numerous races come March. Looks like RSA will be the aim for Boston Bob @ 7/1 and while there's doubts about whether he handles really good ground and the fact that he got out-paced at crucial part of last years Albert Bartlett, Ruby and Willie always seem to go on about his engine so if pushed I'd plump for him. I'd choose Arvika Ligeonnaire over BB if he went for the race but I'd say he's Arkle bound.

Jewson Chase: Captain Conan 5/1 or Oscars Well 10/1. Doubt Henderson will waste running Captain Conan in Arkle if the likely looking beast Simonsig runs in it. He's a super jumper and strong traveller! Jessica Harrington saying Oscars Well will be upping trip, could suit.

Ryanair Chase: A NRNB on Sizing Europe @ 6/1 in this would be one of the bets of the Festival for me. Showed in Clonmel he stays 2 1/2 really well and has festival form in abundance! Cue Card is a horse I love (and will back if Sizing doesn't run) but Henry De Bromhead seems to think his horse now needs the extra distance and represents a safer bet than Cue Card in my eyes.

World Hurdle: Similar to Cinders hasn't had her ground once this year, Voler la Vedette @ 9/1 looks the bet to me after putting it up to Big Bucks last year. With doubts over 5 of the 6 ahead of him in the betting lining up, you'd have to think VLV will follow last years route as Quevega as ever looks unbeatable. VLV travelled ok last day in Leopardstown but found little on ground. Think Colm Murphy has said he'll put her away now till she hopefully gets better ground in March and I trust him to have her in better shape come March. Tidal Bay could run in this, and be a danger if Ruby gets his way, but you'd think the horses owners will want to take a once in a lifetime GC chance!

Gold Cup: Bobs Worth has done nothing but impress but @ 3/1 he's no way an antepost price for me! A horse I'll be looking at once I can get NRNB is Last Instalment. Unlikely to run given tendon injury but had First Lieutenant behind him in Fort Leney last year. Super Jumper and the most natural Gigginstown stayer in my opinion, he probably wont run but if he does will be a lot shorter than 25/1! There's an opinion that he needs soft in the going but who knows as it's all he's ran on (Plus Cheltenham could be soft this year anyway). If he doesn't run, I'll probably plump for First Lieutenant...simply because he's ran well against Bobs Worth this year already, shows marked improvement in Spring, his jumping looks to have improved and he's 7 points better in price! A cert to give you a run for your money at a price!

tonic wine

byronbay2 wrote: »

Antepost betting in general is a mugs game these days unless you have inside info about a longshot being aimed at a particular race.

I don't know about that. I'm very happy with 12's I got on jezki.
Vc have being doing a non runner promo for the last couple weeks.

dave3004

I'm sticking with Peddler Cross wherever he goes.

I like Captain Conan for the Jewson and am thinking of taking on SS in the QM........ You heard me. Just wondering if anyone ever gets him off the bridle how much he will find. He's been off it twice in his career and beaten both starts. 1/2 seems too skinny.

prettyboy81

I've done one small ante post bet & will not do anymore until bookies go NRNB. Quevega, Simonsig & Sprinter Sacre treble 4/1 with PaddyPower 20 on it from my Tidal Bay winnings.

Johner

dave3004 wrote: »

I'm sticking with Peddler Cross wherever he goes.

I like Captain Conan for the Jewson and am thinking of taking on SS in the QM........ You heard me. Just wondering if anyone ever gets him off the bridle how much he will find. He's been off it twice in his career and beaten both starts. 1/2 seems too skinny.

He was only a baby over hurdles. Look at the size and scope of him now. I wouldn't waste my time looking for something to get him bet because it won't happen. That's what people said last year, oh he won't come up the Cheltenham hill because he didn't get up it the year before, but he was a year younger in the supreme and he really filled out in a year.. Anything he did over hurdles was a bonus.

Moon Dice

My ante post bets last year were a disaster except for Big Bucks/ Quevega double. Gonna steer clear for a while. Especially on favourites as prices will change very little.

SRFC

Very annoying you cant have a bet on Mullins horse's ante-post as he wont give anything away what the targets are one Im lumping on is Pont Alexandre as soon as the races are nrnb friend was talking to willie he says it probably the best novice hurdler he's had since Mikael d'haguneot

MoscowFlyer

I am also awaiting news on Pont Alexandre before lumping on and I mean I might lump lump lump

Slattsy

Backed Jezki after he won the other day. Got 6/1 and happy with that.

JH has said he'll have one more run before Cheltenham. He'll be odds on for that and hopefully win again, then I can see his price drop again by 2 points.

He looks the real deal this year (i backed him in the bumper last season) and the better ground at Cheltenham will improve him further. And Geraghty and Power are making some sweet baby love making music about him.

Here's hoping.

Gringo180

Rock On Ruby 8/1 to retain The Champion Hurdle. Cracking price!

SRFC

Gringo180 wrote: »

Rock On Ruby 8/1 to retain The Champion Hurdle. Cracking price!

Fluke last year was put in his place at aintree and by Zarkandar this year

Gringo180

SRFC wrote: »

Fluke last year was put in his place at aintree and by Zarkandar this year

Different animal come March, history shows that festival winners dont run well at Aintree and I would excuse his last run against Zarkandar on bottomless ground and it was his first outing of the season.

Luca Brasi

byronbay2 wrote: »

I take your point but none of your horses are going to contact much in price between now and mid-March - the only excitement is hoping (and praying) that they all make the starting tape! If you want some excitement for your tenner try a 6-horse accum tomorrow or New Year's Day. Saving that, I know a girl who will give you some excitement for a tenner!

Is that above minimum wage rate?

Gringo180

Cant believe Darlan is so short. Only beat Raya Star by 4L off level weight whereas R.O.R gave the same horse 12lbs and a 10L beating.

SRFC

Gringo180 wrote: »

Different animal come March, history shows that festival winners dont run well at Aintree and I would excuse his last run against Zarkandar on bottomless ground and it was his first outing of the season.

Beg to differ im 100% sure he wont finish in front of hurricane fly at the festival cant have that champions form last year no way overturn improved that much to finish in front of the fly

premierstone

Agree with SRFC in fact if they were all to line up I will definitely be laying him for a place on the day.

tipster

have backed hurricane fly in the champion boston bob in the rsa captain conan in the jewson and sir des champs in the gold cup.ill also back champagne fever in the neptune as i believe thats the race he"ll run in and i believe ponte alexandre will go for the albert bartlett where i cant see him beaten.forgot too i have first lieutenant backed ew for the gold cup

SRFC

If the CH was nrnb id back the fly now because you wont get anything like his price on the day he will go off about 5/2 I think and there will be a serious avalanche of Irish money going onto him on course which will keep his price for getting bigger imo

tipster

id also fancy bog warrior if they go for the world hurdle very winnable race now

premierstone

tipster wrote: »

id also fancy bog warrior if they go for the world hurdle very winnable race now

If we get a soft ground festival perhaps but I mean he has never even ran on anything approaching good ground or crossed the Irish sea. He has only ever had 4 runs over hurdles one of which was a fall and the furthest he has won at is 2m 4f, plenty others appeal more to me tbh.

droidman123

Slattsy wrote: »

Backed Jezki after he won the other day. Got 6/1 and happy with that.

JH has said he'll have one more run before Cheltenham. He'll be odds on for that and hopefully win again, then I can see his price drop again by 2 points.

He looks the real deal this year (i backed him in the bumper last season) and the better ground at Cheltenham will improve him further. And Geraghty and Power are making some sweet baby love making music about him.

Here's hoping.

6/1 is a good price, i was mightly impressed with him at leopardstown. only thing is a horse needs so much luck in running in the supreme. i know you could say that about any race, but the supreme is always a nightmare with so many novices. having said that i,m going to back it myself.

Colonel Sanders

Someone punting Blood Cotil for the Triumph

Blue across Oddschecker and matched at a low of 11.5 on betfair.

Strange one, can't imagin it's a race tipsters would get involved with. Ruby Walsh (who rides Far West remember) said he was the best juvenile hurdler he'd sat on this year in The Examiner before Xmas. Not sure where the cash has come from today

3ndahalfof6

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Someone punting Blood Cotil for the Triumph

Blue across Oddschecker and matched at a low of 11.5 on betfair.

Strange one, can't imagin it's a race tipsters would get involved with. Ruby Walsh (who rides Far West remember) said he was the best juvenile hurdler he'd sat on this year in The Examiner before Xmas. Not sure where the cash has come from today

Must love any ground.

Colonel Sanders

3ndahalfof6 wrote: »

Must love any ground.

Same sire as Binocular so has to be a good chance he won't be inconvenienced by quicker

We'll find out more Hennessy Day when he may well take Our Conor on

Colonel Sanders

Money for Clondaw Court in the bumper too

Colonel Sanders

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Someone punting Blood Cotil for the Triumph

Blue across Oddschecker and matched at a low of 11.5 on betfair.

Strange one, can't imagin it's a race tipsters would get involved with. Ruby Walsh (who rides Far West remember) said he was the best juvenile hurdler he'd sat on this year in The Examiner before Xmas. Not sure where the cash has come from today

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Money for Clondaw Court in the bumper too

And Champagne Fever too

Same owner but Ricci doesn't strike me as the ante post trixie type

luketitz

Ray Mond wrote: »

Listen it's a bit of ****ing excitement , a bit of frack thats all.!! did u not read above that I put a €10 on it I'm hardly gonna lose some sleep a few months down the line if one gets pulled out and it's void.

Just clarifying, it wouldn't be void, it'd be a losing bet, under AP rules.

I always wait til the bookies go no runner no bet a couple of weeks beforehand to avoid this pitfall.

Also, I know the lad who writes for http://www.cheltenham.info/, always a great man for tips, worth an eye once Cheltenham comes 'round!

tipster

patrick mullins was on atr there tonight didnt mention blood cotil but really bigged up champagne fever and clondaw court

jimjamcos

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Money for Clondaw Court in the bumper too

Patrick Mullins was interviewed on ATR tonight and when quizzed on Cheltenham Bumper said Clondaw Court would be his pick of their horses for it...think he said that the horse's size and room for improvement swayed it over the others.

luketitz

tipster wrote: »

patrick mullins was on atr there tonight didnt mention blood cotil but really bigged up champagne fever and clondaw court

jimjamcos wrote: »

Patrick Mullins was interviewed on ATR tonight and when quizzed on Cheltenham Bumper said Clondaw Court would be his pick of their horses for it...think he said that the horse's size and room for improvement swayed it over the others.

Great minds..

3ndahalfof6

luketitz wrote: »

Great minds..

Never gambled.

jimjamcos

3ndahalfof6 wrote: »

Never gambled.

haha...where's the fun in that!

3ndahalfof6

jimjamcos wrote: »

haha...where's the fun in that!

This is also true.

Mick990

Right lads I took First Lieutenant at 24/1 on Betfair after the Lexus. I think he is a savage bet as he always seriously improves in the spring . Though I have been very impressed with Bobsworth this year the poor showing by RSA winners in the GC is kinda putting me off .

I've also had some money on Un Atout in the supreme at 25s

Mick990

Oh and I think Hurricane Fly is already starting to shrink he is currently 7\2. I think he is defo worth some now

SRFC

Diakali is the mullins triumph horse and the bumper horse they fancy to win it is faugheen.


Paul Nicholls run caid du burlais tomorrow who he's touted as his best truimph hurdle horse 9/4 to win in Chepstow.

ste2010

SRFC wrote: »

Diakali is the mullins triumph horse and the bumper horse they fancy to win it is faugheen.


Paul Nicholls run caid du burlais tomorrow who he's touted as his best truimph hurdle horse 9/4 to win in Chepstow.

Who is "they"? someone wrote earlier Pat Mullins said clondaw court is strongest for the bumper?

Nicholls also part owns Cad du Berlais so I'm sure he has been extra particular on his homework for this one (similar to pearl swan who I'd love to know what's going on with)
I actually backed Ruacana myself at 9/2 for this only because I have some form I can trust..minor bet

SRFC

ste2010 wrote: »

Who is "they"? someone wrote earlier Pat Mullins said clondaw court is strongest for the bumper?

Nicholls also part owns Cad du Berlais so I'm sure he has been extra particular on his homework for this one (similar to pearl swan who I'd love to know what's going on with)
I actually backed Ruacana myself at 9/2 for this only because I have some form I can trust..minor bet

Willie and harry kirk,Faugheen they think is the best bumper horse in the yard he won a schooling bumper in thurles by half the track a few weeks ago,


I've no real opinion on the race in chepstow but if they think he's a triumph horse and its not just the usual hype from the gallops then walsh's mount should win handy enough to be considered for cheltenham.

Colonel Sanders

Boston Bob is entered at Thurles next week over 2m 4

He's also firmed up on Betfair for the RSA chase. Think I heard a quite where Willie said Back In Focus wouldn't run there in any race on anything but soft ground

rossom

Only bet I've had so far was Kashmir Peak at 33/1 for the Triumph Hurdle after his debut win over hurdles. Has come out to win a Grade 2 at Doncaster afterwards and is now 16/1 best priced. Isn't a flashy horse that will win by big margins but I think he is a serious, serious horse and John Quinn looks to have a great chance to win the Triumph for the 2nd year running.

ste2010

Just did my first antepost today :-)
A double
Diakali in the triumph and sizing Europe in the Ryanair
10 euro Returns over 2 k if they both win.

Triumph looks wide open and alot fit the bill of a winner at the moment
Kashmir peak
Calculated risk
Blood cotil
Our Conor
Far west

I'm hoping the comments on this forum re diakali materialise so I have taken a punt..It's about time an Irish based Irish trainer won this and if diakali wins this weekend well 20-1 won be available anymore!

My reasoning for backing sizing Europe in the Ryanair are simple. Unless in the next 8 weeks we lose the machine, logically sizing Europe will be running in the Ryanair

droidman123

Gonna back raya star e-w in the morning for the champion hurdle.hope he is still 20-1.

ste2010

droidman123 wrote: »

Gonna back raya star e-w in the morning for the champion hurdle.hope he is still 20-1.

You mentioned earlier in the week you didn't think he would win but would place. Why don't you wait until the place market or w/o is available so you can make the most of your bet. If im honest I can't see his price reducing that much an I think Grumeti is Alan kings primary hope for the champion