January 2013 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

The Jan 2013 contest is in this post, after a rather long bit about the rules. If you don't care about the rules or feel that you already know them only too well, scroll down and then down again to the contest questions. It should be noted that there are new late penalties in force this year, as well as a new way to enter your forecasts (by a form to be supplied by Sponge Bob but please note your entries the old way are also valid, we will enter them in the form on your behalf).

First, a brief discussion of the scoring rules for 2013, same as 2011-12 basically.

The IMT is worth 25 points each month, one deduction per 0.1 error.

The max and min temps are worth 20 each, same deductions.

The precip, given as percentage of normal, is worth 15 points, and errors are assessed per 3% increments (for example, if you're 15% out, you'll get 10 pts).

The sunshine, also given as a percentage of normal, is worth 10 points, and errors are assessed in 5% increments.

The bonus questions are worth 10 points and are scored by rank order every time. As we've been attracting 40-50 entrants in recent years, I have taken to giving the top four the max of 10 points and scoring down from there in groups of four, leaving some number out in the cold. If we get larger fields of entrants, this may expand, I will keep it roughly the same proportions.

Now, a final point on scoring, two years ago I introduced the wildly popular "minimum scoring progression rule" which nobody but me understands, but benefits from in any case, sort of like Germany's (2013 edit Canada's) finance ministry. Or perhaps the opposite of that, I don't claim to understand economics, after all, I'm paying you for weather forecasts.

How does the rule work? When reality raises its ugly head and looks much different from most of our forecasts, then the scores must be at least the values of the minimum progressions. Some can be higher if people guess very well, but in rank order, none can be lower than this:

(for 25 pt IMT) ... 23, 20, 18, 16, 14, 12, 11, 10 etc to 1.

(for 20 pt temps) ... 18, 16, 14, 13, 12, 11, 10 etc to 1.

(for 15 pt precip) ... 14, 13, 12, 11, 10 etc to 4, 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1.

(for 10 pt sunshine) ... 10, 9, 8, 7, 7, 6, 6, 5, 5, 4, 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1.

You may notice that I sweetened the pot for the lower scores in the last two groups, that's to balance out how many people score anything in these situations. On an estimate, I would say we apply the rule which is more commonly known as the "mercy rule" about once every second month to one category or another, and sometimes in those cases, just to some but not all of the scoring entries. It tends to equalize the monthly scores and thus makes it less relevant which months you might happen to miss.

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As in 2011-12, the 2013 contest will have two basic awards:

The Boards.ie Prize is awarded to the winner based on best 10 scores, so while not necessary to enter every month, if you do, your lowest two scores are dropped -- if you enter eleven times, one lowest score is dropped.

The M.T. Cranium Award which you need not fear to be a literal thing, is given to he or she who scores the highest total for 12 months. To prevent potential embarrassment, you have to enter all 12 to qualify.

These two awards are still based on the calendar year 2013.

A third and new "Four Seasons" Award will be based on four already announced seasonal contests in which you score points for top-ten finishes and these accumulate so that we can declare four seasonal winners and at the end of that, a grand "Four Seasons" winner based on total points in the four seasons. The details of the seasonal scoring were in the December thread.

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January 2013 contest

1. Predict the IMT, an average of five selected stations, which has averaged 5.2 C for the 30-yr period 1981-2010.

2. Predict the highest daily maximum at any reporting (met.ie) station.

3. Predict the lowest daily minimum at any reporting (met.ie) station.

4. Predict the monthly precip as a percentage of normal (for 11 reporting stations in met.ie Monthly Summary)

5. Predict the monthly sunshine as a percentage of normal (for 6 reporting stations in met.ie Monthly Summary)

6. Bonus -- Predict the daily maximum temp at Cork on Saturday 5 Jan. This is one of our rare model-friendly bonus questions and the new late penalties will more than handle any advantages to be gained from a late entry but we will stipulate that the max points before penalty will also drop by one per day starting on the 2nd.

To enter, look for a form in a later post supplied by Sponge Bob or possibly myself, or if you still prefer, enter by template:

TEMPLATE

IMT ..... MAX ..... MIN .... PRC ..... SUN ..... Cork 5th

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Late forecast penalty structure has changed from previous years. Please take careful notice ... it is basically 5 pts per half day late starting 0300h 2nd. This converts to (for example) 20 pts penalty on entries 1501 3rd to 0300 4th. In this system there is no ultimate cutoff for entries, this allows anyone who is seriously late to avoid disqualification for any awards although with that score of zero, makes you wonder if anyone would ever really make that choice. Since this has been widely publicized and in view of our already lenient free entry on first policy, starting this month there will not be further extensions of penalty-free time even for New Years or badly timed bank holidays etc, those problems can always be solved by early entry. Please note that no score will be negative after penalties including any bonus subjected to late penalty.

Sponge Bob

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/viewform?formkey=dElyZTJQeUJzVjdnQ1JBcThYdHpCSEE6MQ#gid=1

Entry form in that link. Please post Done or Done again in this thread so we know its you and remember you can enter from any smartphone.

pauldry

done and done again

Bsal

Done.

Sponge Bob

Best of luck to everyone from Sponge Bob HQ. First month in yonks that I won't be punting in a forecasting myself.

John mac

done and done again .

(you could go in under another name .. Squarepants perhaps )

H2UMrsRobinson

Done

NIALL D

done

Rocky Bay

Completed...

kindredspirit

The technologically challenged KS managed to complete the form.

Easy peasy really. Less typing. Thanks, Sponge Bob Square Balls.

Hammer Archer

Done.

Joe Public

Done - well

Harps

Done

M.T. Cranium

Done, like dinner.

Later entrants, if you don't want to read the summary of rules in post #1, but you need to know the bonus (Cork max 5th) -- all the other questions remain the same as usual -- and you can enter either by the form (in post #2) post done on thread or your entry still valid the old way (directly onto the thread) ... we'll put it in the form 4U.

Happy new warm sector, cold front and next warm sector etc

delw

Done

omicron

Done.

BEASTERLY

Done!

dacogawa

Done! And Happy New Year to you all

jd

Done!

rameire

Done.
Cheers Sponge Rob and Empty Cranium for your hard work.
and Happy New Year to all.

mickger844posts

done

dasa29

Done.

okla

Done.
Happy new year to all.
May it bring thundersnow, Spanish plumes and maybe even the Greenland express again :-)

Rikand

the form makes it harder to see what everyone else has put down so I can copy them

which means "done"

lostinashford

Done

nilhg

Done

waterways

Done.

SSW or not and where, who knows ...

Sponge Bob has left us after 23.930 contributions or so.
Thanks for the entry form.

Will we have an entry form next month?

cherryghost

Done

Strasser

Done

jambofc

done

Danno

IMT 5.9c..... MAX 14.2c..... MIN -5.7c.... PRC 80%..... SUN 110%..... Cork 5th 10.3c...

Tae laidir

Done

talkabout

done

Speak Now

6.0 ..... 13.9 ..... -6.0 .... 85 ..... 110 ..... 10.8

M.T. Cranium

If I thank a post, it means I have also entered it into the form.

Could recent entrant "I love it when a plan comes together" please confirm actual username?

My two guesses are Mindgame and WolfeIRE

DOCARCH

Done

traecy1

Done

SeaFields

7.0 ..... 15.0 .....-3.5 .... 140 ..... 100 ..... 12.8

homolumo

done

M.T. Cranium

First time penalty phase (5 pts) to 1500h today.

Jpmarn

Done

MiNdGaM3

Done

Deep Easterly

It is finished.

M.T. Cranium

Thanks, will have a table made up on 3rd, have my hands full with scoring December and annual today.

Can I ask again who posted as "I love it when a plan comes together" don't imagine that's a valid username?

Maybe it is, seems rather long. Is there an index of usernames on boards, I don't see one.

omicron

There is here, that username doesn't exist though.

Rebelbrowser

Done

M.T. Cranium

January 2013 forecast contest -- entries

Forecaster ..................... IMT ... MAX ... MIN ... PRC ... SUN ... Cork-5th
_________________________________________________________________

lostinashford .................... 7.2 .... 14.5 .... -2.3 .... 079 .... 107 ..... 7.6
Sea Fields ....................... 7.0 .... 15.0 .... -3.5 .... 140 .... 100 .... 12.8
mickger844posts .............. 6.8 .... 13.9 .... -3.9 .... 084 .... 124 .... 12.4
nilhg .............................. 6.8 .... 14.2 .... -3.1 .... 060 .... 090 .... 10.2
H2UMrsRobinson ............... 6.5 .... 14.9 .... -4.6 .... 085 .... 095 .... 12.2
Pauldry ........................... 6.4 .... 14.1 .... -4.0 .... 109 .... 099 .... 11.3
howlinwolf ....................... 6.4 .... 14.1 .... -4.9 .... 101 .... 050 ..... 9.8
okla ............................... 6.3 .... 12.6 .... -8.7 .... 120 .... 090 .... 10.9
M.T. Cranium ................... 6.2 .... 14.7 .... -3.3 .... 080 .... 145 .... 12.3
jpmarn* .......................... 6.2 .... 14.5 .... -3.3 .... 081 .... 115 .... 12.2
Hammer Archer ................ 6.1 .... 13.2 .... -5.2 .... 112 .... 088 ..... 9.8
dacogawa ....................... 6.1 .... 15.2 .... -6.8 .... 092 .... 111 .... 13.2
Bsal ............................... 6.0 .... 12.1 .... -5.8 .... 095 .... 098 .... 10.4
"plan comes together" ....... 6.0 .... 15.0 .... -6.0 .... 085 .... 105 .... 13.5
Jerry Seinfeld ................... 6.0 .... 13.9 .... -6.0 .... 085 .... 110 .... 10.8
John mac ........................ 5.9 .... 12.4 .... -5.2 .... 098 .... 082 ..... 9.3
Danno ............................ 5.9 .... 14.2 .... -5.7 .... 080 .... 110 .... 10.3
jambofc .......................... 5.7 .... 14.2 .... -4.8 .... 115 .... 110 .... 11.2
Strasser ......................... 5.6 .... 14.1 .... -4.0 .... 110 .... 095 .... 11.5
rameire ........................... 5.5 .... 14.4 .... -4.2 .... 089 .... 094 .... 11.4
Harps ............................. 5.4 .... 12.4 .... -6.9 .... 120 .... 090 .... 11.2

Con Sensus ...................... 5.4 .... 13.9 .... -5.5 .... 098 .... 099 .... 11.3

cherryghost ..................... 5.4 .... 12.5 .... -6.5 .... 110 .... 090 .... 11.5
Deep Easterly** ............... 5.4 .... 13.7 .... -6.7 .... 127 .... 100 ..... 9.8
Traecy1 .......................... 5.3 .... 13.8 .... -6.2 .... 080 .... 090 .... 11.2
homolumo ........................ 5.3 .... 14.3 .... -5.1 .... 098 .... 101 .... 11.9
omicron ........................... 5.2 .... 12.0 .... -4.0 .... 100 .... 100 .... 11.0
Rocky Bay ....................... 5.1 ...... 7.1 .... -2.1 .... 131 .... 067 ...... 2.1
Tae laidir ......................... 5.1 .... 13.0 .... -5.5 .... 109 .... 086 .... 10.6
kindred spirit .................... 5.0 .... 13.8 .... -5.5 .... 090 .... 110 .... 10.0
Rickylovesuall ................... 5.0 .... 12.5 .... -4.5 .... 090 .... 120 .... 10.0
jd ................................... 5.0 .... 13.1 .... -9.8 .... 092 .... 091 .... 12.2
talkabout ......................... 5.0 .... 13.2 .... -4.6 .... 090 .... 090 .... 12.5
200motels ........................ 4.9 .... 14.8 .... -7.8 .... 081 .... 099 .... 10.2
waterways ....................... 4.8 .... 12.7 .... -7.3 .... 100 .... 100 .... 11.5
rebelbrowser** ................. 4.8 .... 14.2 .... -7.9 .... 107 .... 088 .... 13.6
delw ............................... 4.6 .... 12.3 .... -4.7 .... 105 .... 092 .... 12.0
DOCARCH ......................... 4.4 .... 14.6 .... -9.7 .... 092 .... 098 .... 13.6
NIALL_D .......................... 4.1 .... 11.2 .... -7.6 .... 111 .... 111 ..... 5.4
dasa29 ............................ 4.0 .... 12.0 ... -10.0 .... 105 .... 095 .... 10.0
MiNdGaM3*....................... 4.0 .... 15.2 .... -9.6 .... 098 .... 114 .... 12.0
BEASTERLY ...................... 3.2 .... 13.4 .... -7.1 .... 065 .... 130 .... 12.1
Joe Public ........................ 2.9 .... 14.5 ... -12.9 .... 089 .... 109 .... 14.2
_________________________________________________

Whoever entered "I love it when a plan comes together" needs to contact me because you need a boards username to enter.

* 5 pt penalty
** 10 pt penalty

M.T. Cranium

The max temp at Cork on the 5th was 10.8 and here's a shocker, Jerry Seinfeld had that very prediction ... okla was very close at 10.9. Tae laidir and omicron are in on the full ten points as well.

The warmest I've seen in this mild spell is 12.9 C but if you know of anything higher, post it.

Speak Now

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The max temp at Cork on the 5th was 10.8 and here's a shocker, Jerry Seinfeld had that very prediction ... okla was very close at 10.9. Tae laidir and omicron are in on the full ten points as well.

The warmest I've seen in this mild spell is 12.9 C but if you know of anything higher, post it.

Havent checked again but i think Shannon hit 13.1, possibly on Thursday.

M.T. Cranium

IMT was at or above 8.5 C through first eight days, but will probably be closer to 5 by Sunday. Rainfall so far looks to be not far from normal with wide variations and sunshine probably reached normal after running behind until yesterday. I will try to track down some more definitive values for the mid-month report.

M.T. Cranium

-3.4 C was the coldest I could find so far ... anyone see a colder reading?