2015

delaval

I would be very interested to hear any plans for milk production post quotas.Our own lpans are to increase cow numbers by 25% in year one and by a further 40% in year 3 (2017)

6480

delaval wrote: »

I would be very interested to hear any plans for milk production post quotas.Our own lpans are to increase cow numbers by 25% in year one and by a further 40% in year 3 (2017)

i am a bit fed up of all this expansion talk post 2015 . what will the milk price be with all this extra milk i would stand back and and see how u managed this year on grass supply , forage savaed ,fertilty and profit for this year and maybe think of 26 other EU countries that also can expand in 2015 and maybe some of the less developed EU countries might get grants to develope dairy farms .

delaval

I did not make any decision based on this year or in deed any one year in particular. I know what i am capable of getting from my business based on very thorough analysis.I have no idea what milk price will be nor does anyone else but the trend is that the highs are getting higher and the lows are getting higher.Dairy farming in europe will take flight from the south where its not well developed already

whelan1

i have land capable for 300 cows, will never go to that, will stick to what i am comfortable at ..no use putting unnessesary(sp) pressure on yourself or your kids

freedominacup

There was a farm walk held in Kilmac in Waterford in the back-end. Father and son had bought quota in '08 and '09 at reasonable value and had moved from 80/90 cows to 140 which wasjust about within their labour and buildings capacity. The next plan was to go to around 200 cows and hire in a fulltime labour unit as the father was at retirement age. The upshot of the costings was that the extra 60 cows wouldn't quite pay for a decent holiday for the son and his family when all costs labour and buildings had been met for at least 10 years if ever. We all need to be very careful about expansion plans esp those which involve a lot of extra labour and building. I think I will go for higher yields with a reasonable increase in cow numbers. Higher yields can be pitched back if the conc price/milk price ratio becomes unfavourable. 60 extra cubilcles and the ancillaries will always have to be paid for.

mf240

I think I will go for higher yields with a reasonable increase in cow numbers. Higher yields can be pitched back if the conc price/milk price ratio becomes unfavourable. 60 extra cubilcles and the ancillaries will always have to be paid for.[/Quote]

I'll prob do the same but because I am stocked at 3/ha on grazing block so no room for more cows unless I import even more fOrage from out farm. Hope to increase yields as much as Possible by breeding up also feeding more when milk price is good.

An interesting sum for ya

work out how much extra milk you would get by increasing cow numbers by 20%

THen work out how much extra milk if you could get if you could increase milk yield of existing numbers by 20%

mf240

whelan1 wrote: »

i have land capable for 300 cows,

I can safely say That is the single most exciting sentence I have ever heard uttered by a lady !!

Timmaay

I can comfortably go from the current 80 to 100, with the only investment being a new parlour (which has to be done anyways!), and abit more slurry storage. Neither of which will I'm planning on letting break the bank. Always some dairy bull calves and beef calves are always reared up here at the minute, alongside fatting cull cows. That whole 1/2 arsed beef enterprise will be the 1st to go come 2015! Pushing beyond the 100 depends firstly on getting land around me rented on longterm lease, and then ability to expand naturally, I'd certainly try to avoid getting myself horribly in debt, for as freedom said might work out just the price of an extra holiday at the end of it all!

The aim also is to keep up the milk yield in the herds EBI (By sticking with a decent bit of Holstein, plenty of bulls out there now with very high fertility and good on milk also!), which leaves the door open to ramping up yields when the prices are good. It will be interesting to see what the processors reaction to the likes of this is though, if the whole country tries it will they be able to process the milk??

The other thing I'll probably do medium term is stick out the wintermilk (but the bare minimum), how much of a barrier the June 16% limit will be is unknown, but considering I'm wintermilk now I might as well keep the opinions open.

Timmaay

mf240 wrote: »

I can safely say That is the single most exciting sentence I have ever heard uttered by a lady !!

Its all about the road frontage!!

delaval

Compact Feb calving should keep 16% out of the equation
I am a little confused re.milking more when price is good(more feed?)
Our policy has always been low cost even at good price I would much prefer to hold the margin

Timmaay

Yep more feed! Keep the low cost/high margin setup at the centre of the business for definite, but when milk price is very good feed more, so with the same cow numbers, same setup etc, you get more out. Margin isn't everything when it costs you nothing (in terms of capital or effort) to produce the extra milk.

Juniorhurler

Us suckler men don't understand all this talk of margins and feeding rates. Speak English please.

freedominacup

Juniorhurler wrote: »

Us suckler men don't understand all this talk of margins and feeding rates. Speak English please.

How's juniorcamogie?

Timmaay

Get yourself into one of them beef discussion groups, I'm sure they'll be talking about margins and feed rates as they all effect how much profit ya make!!

delaval

They only ever talk about gross margin with sucklers!!!!!!!!

delaval

The only worry I would have is energy inflation feed price seems bent on going one way, therefore not sure if I would write it into any business plan I had but I take your point

bob charles

delaval wrote: »

The only worry I would have is energy inflation feed price seems bent on going one way, therefore not sure if I would write it into any business plan I had but I take your point

good idea, dont include feed and energy cost into your business plans

Juniorhurler

Gross margin and sfp. Juniorcamogie is not too bad thanks fic. Just waiting on results back now. All seems o.k though.

delaval

bob charles wrote: »

good idea, dont include feed and energy cost into your business plans

Back to budgeting on margin only way to do it......Who said maggin wasn't important?

freedominacup

Juniorhurler wrote: »

Juniorcamogie is not too bad thanks fic. Just waiting on results back now. All seems o.k though.

Good. Home for Christmas I hope. This time 3 years ago we were starting to panic Mrs FIC was 9and a half months pregnant and no stir. He turned up on the 23rd and home on the 24th, great fun altogether.

just do it

freedominacup wrote: »

Good. Home for Christmas I hope. This time 3 years ago we were starting to panic Mrs FIC was 9and a half months pregnant and no stir. He turned up on the 23rd and home on the 24th, great fun altogether.

Time to be thinking about another bun in the oven

Juniorhurler

freedominacup wrote: »

Good. Home for Christmas I hope. This time 3 years ago we were starting to panic Mrs FIC was 9and a half months pregnant and no stir. He turned up on the 23rd and home on the 24th, great fun altogether.

ya, home for santy. She wouldn't be away from the2kids at this time of year for love nor money.

freedominacup

just do it wrote: »

Time to be thinking about another bun in the oven

Nope he was fourth and final.

whelan1

Timmaay wrote: »

Its all about the road frontage!!

couple of miles of that in a residentially zoned area:D

Timmaay

Whelan you must have been the centre of attention at the Macra nights out :P

freedominacup

Timmaay wrote: »

Whelan you must have been the centre of attention at the Macra nights out :P

If she had any sense she steered well clear:eek: and considering Mr Whelan has never milked a cow she probably did.

countygorey

whelan1 wrote: »

i have land capable for 300 cows, will never go to that, will stick to what i am comfortable at ..no use putting unnessesary(sp) pressure on yourself or your kids

You are a wise woman

mahoney_j

Plan on milking 80 to 90 holstein cows(65 at the moment) on my 75 acre milking block producing around 145 k gallons and 550 kg milk solids on about 1.2 tonne of meal in a spring based syetem unless arrabawn bring in a seasonality scheme.New parlour in last winter and have to convert one slatted shed to cubicles which will cost small money.Have my father to help out at the moment with relief milking and calf rearing so ok for labour.There is a 60 acre block right nxt to the milking block that may come up but will put me under serious pressure if i did take it on,Id have to build more cubicles pay for rent,Reseed and fertlise it all(hasnt seen any fertliser in about 5 years) as well as fence it and put in some roadways.Comfortable with what i have and will be with what im proposing above but if i took rhat land on id be fairly pinned to the wall financially.Would be a shame to let it go though but if i aint going to make any or very littl out of it why bother???.And no i wont put in a stand off pad or go the jersey route before anyone suggests it

bogman_bass

whelan1 wrote: »

couple of miles of that in a residentially zoned area:D

be still my beating heart!

delaval

Is the 60 acres to lease or to buy?

mahoney_j

Dont know de laval if and thats a big if id say it will be to rent,Really irkes me looking at it as potentially its an excellent dry bit of land but as it is it is covered in docks and ragworth and has about 30 or 40 cattle roaming around it for 12 months of the year.Inquired about renting some of it about 3 years ago in a nice way and the impression i got from the owner was how dare you even ask or do u not think im able to farm it myselk so i didnt pursue it too much after that as the guy is a neighbour and didnt want to fall out with him,He did say if he ever decided to do anything with it hed let me know

delaval

We are leasing about 60% of what we are farming. First encounter can be very ackward but its amazing how you probably have sown the seed. I approached a family some years ago felt just like you thought I had done harm, however 2 years later they came back and we have just finished our first 10 year term and agreed terms for another7, so you never know

freedominacup

It just struck me again this morning reading the calf prices 2013 thread why is it 2015? One of the lads on the other thread was giving his opinion that 2013 was the start of the 2015 expansion and that we;d all be moving bull calves off to make room for more heifers. Why do we have to put up with the superlevy for the next 2 years when there is little we can do to increase production over this period beyond whatever yield potential we have in our herds? Sure you can buy cows but then they won't be available for me to milk and vice versa the national picture isn't going to be affected much. Many of us used all B&W/dairy bulls this year (2012) but most of those calves aren't even born yet and those that aren't born aren't going to make any difference at all to the quota situation over the next 27 months. The least the IFA should be arguing for is a reduction in the superlevy to under 15 cent/litre.

maxxuumman

freedominacup wrote: »

It just struck me again this morning reading the calf prices 2013 thread why is it 2015? One of the lads on the other thread was giving his opinion that 2013 was the start of the 2015 expansion and that we;d all be moving bull calves off to make room for more heifers. Why do we have to put up with the superlevy for the next 2 years when there is little we can do to increase production over this period beyond whatever yield potential we have in our herds? Sure you can buy cows but then they won't be available for me to milk and vice versa the national picture isn't going to be affected much. Many of us used all B&W/dairy bulls this year (2012) but most of those calves aren't even born yet and those that aren't born aren't going to make any difference at all to the quota situation over the next 27 months. The least the IFA should be arguing for is a reduction in the superlevy to under 15 cent/litre.

I agree totally. I have been argueing this for a while. But the 2012 quota review have met in Brussels and have decided that the Soft landing is working well, with only 4 countries under quota pressure. I don't think there are any more reviews now until D-day.
To take the foot off the break now, would IMO have been the correct thing to do. At this stage cows can't be magicked out of thin air. It would have been a smoother transitition than what's going to happen in 2015.

mf240

Dont have to have all the cows lined up and ready to go day one. But if you really wanted to.

You could leave back surplus heifers to calve at 3 years olds in 2015 along with full crop of 2 year olds.

Would be better off concentrating on resseeding any big blocks that need doing next year before you increase the stocking rate as it is very hard to take ground out for resseeding (other than a paddock or two) when very heavily stocked.

20silkcut

Where are the extra people going to come out of to drink this extra milk??

Is there a raft of new milk based products ready to come on stream in 2015?

Are the Chinese going to buy it in massive quantities.

For me this harks back to the days of 2006/07 and Bertie ahern proclaiming that we need 20,000 new houses a year.
It's hard to see the evidence of a great milk demand on the home market at this point in time. But maybe I'm wrong.

I certainly hope there is a great expansion as I am surrounded by dairy farmers and already have had enquiries about contract rearing heifers and getting a cut out of the milk cheque every month. So there is opportunities for us non dairy men as well in all of this.

Timmaay

To be honest the market swings are so big now that we really don't know what will happen! All we know is that the days of a steady guaranteed milk price are well gone and we are fully exposed to whatever the world market offers! Some years, like last year the price will be excellent, other years we might yet see worst than 2009 and 2012! The signs would suggest that there will be an oversupply come 2015 if the few European countries who have scope to do expand as quickly as they hope to, with a reduction in the milk price as there wont be the demand for it. However no one has a crystal ball, god knows what sort of droughts/flooding there will be in milk producing countries around the world which all could have a much bigger effect than the quota floodgates opening in Europe.

New markets such as Africa etc are however being currently explored also, nothing will happen overnight though but moving forward, what most dairyfarmers in Ireland should be trying to do is use our advantage of the low cost grass system to keep our costs as tight as possible, which allow us to ride out the bad times.

In terms of expansion to supply the home market, its not even part of the equation to be honest, all the extra milk is for export, and thank god for that, looking at the mess over in the UK with the supermarkets totally putting the squeeze on liquid milk producers there.

And finally, I think a bigger problem for you non dairy men, or specifically the suckler men will be sexed semen in future! What this will mean is the dairy farmer only will need to rare 1/2 his current replacement numbers (heifers only), allowing him to produce more beef calves, and therefore pulling the arse out of the market of the suckler cows! I know full well that sexed semen was a failure before, but all the signs are that they have got it much more successful now. I know for one that I would happily pay extra to have a much better chance of getting my high EBI cows in calf back to a heifer!

Min

20silkcut wrote: »

Where are the extra people going to come out of to drink this extra milk??

Is there a raft of new milk based products ready to come on stream in 2015?

Are the Chinese going to buy it in massive quantities.

For me this harks back to the days of 2006/07 and Bertie ahern proclaiming that we need 20,000 new houses a year.
It's hard to see the evidence of a great milk demand on the home market at this point in time. But maybe I'm wrong.

I certainly hope there is a great expansion as I am surrounded by dairy farmers and already have had enquiries about contract rearing heifers and getting a cut out of the milk cheque every month. So there is opportunities for us non dairy men as well in all of this.

World population is growing at about 200,000 per day. Rising prosperity as more people become middle class where more eat a western style diet.
Food is a great area to be in.

freedominacup

Min wrote: »

World population is growing at about 200,000 per day. Rising prosperity as more people become middle class where more eat a western style diet.
Food is a great area to be in.

That's the upshot of it. We are heading into a period where despite the swings and roundabouts the general trend on the price graph will be up for a change. The trick will be to ensure we stop the costs graph following the price one too closely.

farmerjack

freedominacup wrote: »

That's the upshot of it. We are heading into a period where despite the swings and roundabouts the general trend on the price graph will be up for a change. The trick will be to ensure we stop the costs graph following the price one too closely.[/Quot


Bang on fic, Im only starting to milk cows this spring as a new entrant and if I had a euro for every time I was asked where all this extra milk is gonna go and what I was going to do when the inevitable price crash comes id have the milking parlour built. I have given up trying to explain my reasons for entering milk production. Regards the point on sexed semen I couldn't agree more this has the potential to significantly lift output on dairy farms if the technology advances as expected

TEAT SQUEEZER

Timmaay wrote: »

To be honest the market swings are so big now that we really don't know what will happen! All we know is that the days of a steady guaranteed milk price are well gone and we are fully exposed to whatever the world market offers! Some years, like last year the price will be excellent, other years we might yet see worst than 2009 and 2012! The signs would suggest that there will be an oversupply come 2015 if the few European countries who have scope to do expand as quickly as they hope to, with a reduction in the milk price as there wont be the demand for it. However no one has a crystal ball, god knows what sort of droughts/flooding there will be in milk producing countries around the world which all could have a much bigger effect than the quota floodgates opening in Europe.

New markets such as Africa etc are however being currently explored also, nothing will happen overnight though but moving forward, what most dairyfarmers in Ireland should be trying to do is use our advantage of the low cost grass system to keep our costs as tight as possible, which allow us to ride out the bad times.

In terms of expansion to supply the home market, its not even part of the equation to be honest, all the extra milk is for export, and thank god for that, looking at the mess over in the UK with the supermarkets totally putting the squeeze on liquid milk producers there.

And finally, I think a bigger problem for you non dairy men, or specifically the suckler men will be sexed semen in future! What this will mean is the dairy farmer only will need to rare 1/2 his current replacement numbers (heifers only), allowing him to produce more beef calves, and therefore pulling the arse out of the market of the suckler cows! I know full well that sexed semen was a failure before, but all the signs are that they have got it much more successful now. I know for one that I would happily pay extra to have a much better chance of getting my high EBI cows in calf back to a heifer!

i dont think it will be a problem but an oppertunity for the beef lads esp the full timers. its many a beef mans shed was full of fr bull calves fado fado (pre quota)... it was the dairy man with surplus land keeping his bull calves(and the premia helped this also) that really set off the rise in sucklers...

i can imagine it would suit many to get half reared hardy blacks or whiteheads on apr 1st and finish milk feeding outside .. weaning a consistant bunch on grass would give a lad a few options come autumn cos they would fit into any beef system 20-30 mths sure beat a spread out bunch of sucklers expected to pay for themselves and their mammy

rancher

TEAT SQUEEZER wrote: »

[/B]


i dont think it will be a problem but an oppertunity for the beef lads esp the full timers. its many a beef mans shed was full of fr bull calves fado fado (pre quota)... it was the dairy man with surplus land keeping his bull calves(and the premia helped this also) that really set off the rise in sucklers...

Different times now, in the eighties, friesians were mainly br friesians and you could load them with hormones to make them something resembling beef and in the nineties they were loaded with premiums, but they have nothing going for them now and a lot of farmers have found out that this year

bob charles

Timmaay wrote: »

New markets such as Africa etc are however being currently explored also, nothing will happen overnight though but moving forward, what most dairyfarmers in Ireland should be trying to do is use our advantage of the low cost grass system to keep our costs as tight as possible, which allow us to ride out the bad times.

In terms of expansion to supply the home market, its not even part of the equation to be honest, all the extra milk is for export, and thank god for that, looking at the mess over in the UK with the supermarkets totally putting the squeeze on liquid milk producers there.

And finally, I think a bigger problem for you non dairy men, or specifically the suckler men will be sexed semen in future! What this will mean is the dairy farmer only will need to rare 1/2 his current replacement numbers (heifers only), allowing him to produce more beef calves, and therefore pulling the arse out of the market of the suckler cows! I know full well that sexed semen was a failure before, but all the signs are that they have got it much more successful now. I know for one that I would happily pay extra to have a much better chance of getting my high EBI cows in calf back to a heifer!

Min wrote: »

World population is growing at about 200,000 per day. Rising prosperity as more people become middle class where more eat a western style diet.
Food is a great area to be in.

lads I think your views are very simplistic, but sure hey the sun shone here for the last two days so anything is possible. Also our low cost grass system...hmmm

rancher wrote: »

Different times now, in the eighties, friesians were mainly br friesians and you could load them with hormones to make them something resembling beef and in the nineties they were loaded with premiums, but they have nothing going for them now and a lot of farmers have found out that this year

There is another topic I meant to start a thread about over the last few days.

freedominacup

rancher wrote: »

Different times now, in the eighties, friesians were mainly br friesians and you could load them with hormones to make them something resembling beef and in the nineties they were loaded with premiums, but they have nothing going for them now and a lot of farmers have found out that this year

So therefore the demise of the B&W bull calf due to the use of sexed semen would be a bad thing how?

just do it

20silkcut wrote: »

Where are the extra people going to come out of to drink this extra milk??

Is there a raft of new milk based products ready to come on stream in 2015?

Are the Chinese going to buy it in massive quantities.

For me this harks back to the days of 2006/07 and Bertie ahern proclaiming that we need 20,000 new houses a year.
It's hard to see the evidence of a great milk demand on the home market at this point in time. But maybe I'm wrong.

I certainly hope there is a great expansion as I am surrounded by dairy farmers and already have had enquiries about contract rearing heifers and getting a cut out of the milk cheque every month. So there is opportunities for us non dairy men as well in all of this.

A lot of valid points there. I especially take note of your last one. There may well be opportunities to take advantage of lads expanding. Good quality winter forage off reseeded land is another potential one where a diary lad wants to increase his grazing block.

If nothing else, how 2015 works out will be interesting (as an observer!) I hope it's for the good particularly for those lads that have borrowed heavy to expand.

rancher

freedominacup wrote: »

So therefore the demise of the B&W bull calf due to the use of sexed semen would be a bad thing how?

I'm all for their demise, terrible looking animals...don't think I said anything different in my post

TEAT SQUEEZER

rancher wrote: »

Different times now, in the eighties, friesians were mainly br friesians and you could load them with hormones to make them something resembling beef and in the nineties they were loaded with premiums, but they have nothing going for them now and a lot of farmers have found out that this year

you missed my point ......... the fr bull calf numbers are minimal using sexed semen........ a 6 or 7 week ai season with aa or he bulls introduced to dairyherds will mean those "native" beef bred calves coming on stream in april with options there for outdoor rearing etc.........

anyway happy christmas all.......

Min

bob charles wrote: »

lads I think your views are very simplistic, but sure hey the sun shone here for the last two days so anything is possible. Also our low cost grass system...hmmm



There is another topic I meant to start a thread about over the last few days.

http://www.fao.org/docrep/015/an450e/an450e00.pdf

A long read but the medium term outlook for milk from the UN's FAO.

frazzledhome

Quotas going, will it be noticed?

stanflt

frazzledhome wrote: »

Quotas going, will it be noticed?

were only a drop in the ocean

darragh_haven

stanflt wrote: »

were only a drop in the ocean

But our drop will have to be processed and markets found and maintained