N.I catholics gains massively on the protestant population

sanbrafyffe

http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/1211/northern-ireland-census-catholic-protestant.html

just heard this on the news,,seems the catholics have risen quiet a porportion to the size of protestant polutation,,there is now just 3% compared to 9% last year,,,a gain of 6% is massive in one decade
looking like next decades census will show an overall majority for catholics and quiet a substancial majority

problem now for the main parties(dup and sinn fein) is that they need to find out who are these new northern irish identity

news stated that they are pointing out most of them being catholics,as the parties will need to know who's side they will be on should a referendum come about

everdead.ie

sanbrafyffe wrote: »

http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/1211/northern-ireland-census-catholic-protestant.html

just heard this on the news,,seems the catholics have risen quiet a porportion to the size of protestant polutation,,there is now just 3% compared to 9% last year,,,a gain of 6% is massive in one year
looking like next years census will show an overall majority for catholics

problem now for the main parties(dup and sinn fein) is that they need to find out who are these new northern irish identity

news stated that they are pointing out most of them being catholics,as the parties will need to know who's side they will be on should a referendum come about

Census is taken once every ten years.

With less discrimination and equal rights in Northern Ireland a lot more Catholics are happier with the status quo and are voting in ever larger numbers (still proportionally quite small) for unionist parties based on their conservative policies(Obviously some feel British and Some just see the benifits of staying in the Union) and the proportion of protestants voting Sinn Fein and SDLP has remained pretty stable for a good while now something like 2-3% again similar reasons liberal parties both Nationalist etc.

I'm not sure if there will ever be a United Ireland anymore given these more recent Demographic moves however Loyalists like those who spoke at the Flag rally at the weekend are doing their best to push Catholics away with their "Northern has a million British, Protestant Unionists" (Demographics show their are about 865K protestants in NI by the way)

sanbrafyffe

theres very little in it now,i believe this is due to the protestants being older and passing away and the catholic birth rate is much higher,,,,i think i seen somewhere that catholics have a majority from age 35 and under,,,something like 48% to 37%

pablomakaveli

This says a lot more for the possibility of a UI:

Of those questioned, 40% said they were British only, with the remaining 8% choosing British along with another one of the identities, such as British and Irish or British and Northern Irish.
A quarter of the population defined themselves as Irish only, while 21% said they were Northern Irish only.

I dont know why people obsess over the numbers of Catholic and Protestants as religious identity doesnt necessarily indicate political and national identity.

everdead.ie

The other thing to note is that of those of voting age the protestant population is probably still over 50%.

As it is the people of voting age that hold the real key to change by changing the party's they vote for.

I can't wait to see how FF do when they start contesting elections I think they could really take a lot of support from the SDLP.

Iwasfrozen

pablomakaveli wrote: »

This says a lot more for the possibility of a UI:



I dont know why people obsess over the numbers of Catholic and Protestants as religious identity doesnt necessarily indicate political and national identity.

Well it's a self fulfilling argument for nationalists to say that Catholic = Nationalist. But the truth is rather more pessimistic for them.

HellFireClub

sanbrafyffe wrote: »

http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/1211/northern-ireland-census-catholic-protestant.html

just heard this on the news,,seems the catholics have risen quiet a porportion to the size of protestant polutation,,there is now just 3% compared to 9% last year,,,a gain of 6% is massive in one decade
looking like next years census will show an overall majority for catholics

problem now for the main parties(dup and sinn fein) is that they need to find out who are these new northern irish identity

news stated that they are pointing out most of them being catholics,as the parties will need to know who's side they will be on should a referendum come about

There was a poll done recently that indicated that there is an increasing number of Catholics in the North who are looking at what we are doing to our own country down here and are making a decision on economic grounds that they'd be happier to keep their link with the union, as to pursue a reunification with this impoverished state would be a serious mistake for them.

sanbrafyffe

yes i agree,,,and could take some off sinn fein too,,but wasnt the sdlp largely involved in the last ff annual congress,,,thats because there is reports of the sdlp and ff unifying

everdead.ie wrote: »

The other thing to note is that of those of voting age the protestant population is probably still over 50%.

As it is the people of voting age that hold the real key to change by changing the party's they vote for.

I can't wait to see how FF do when they start contesting elections I think they could really take a lot of support from the SDLP.

gurramok

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Well it's a self fulfilling argument for nationalists to say that Catholic = Nationalist. But the truth is rather more pessimistic for them.

Same goes for Protestant=Unionist. What we do know is that due to increasing numbers of those from a Catholic background and decreasing numbers from a Protestant background that its likely that the Nationalist vote(aged 18+) would rise as the majority will vote Nationalist. And those 5.6% who have no religion, only local statisticians would likely know their political preference.

Interesting that those who refuse describe themselves as anything British related(46%) nearly correspond to those who are from a Catholic background.(45%). I'd say an error margin is here on both sides to account of the atheist contingent.

sanbrafyffe

yes i agree,,,lots of natioalists dont want anything to do with here yet due to the economic situation and i dont blame them,,do you,,,however should our finances turn and we show stable economic growth in many years to come,,,lots of them will tend to turn the way they did wen we had the boom...during the boom they did not have the population to do anything etc,,but they are in a much better position now

it will be years and years yet anyway

HellFireClub wrote: »

There was a poll done recently that indicated that there is an increasing number of Catholics in the North who are looking at what we are doing to our own country down here and are making a decision on economic grounds that they'd be happier to keep their link with the union, as to pursue a reunification with this impoverished state would be a serious mistake for them.

everdead.ie

sanbrafyffe wrote: »

yes i agree,,,and could take some off sinn fein too,,but wasnt the sdlp largely involved in the last ff annual congress,,,thats because there is reports of the sdlp and ff unifying

SDLP leadership has been pretty critical of FF policies and are denying any kind of tie up.

junder

I wonder how much of the increase is due to the large numbers of Eastern Europeans now living in NI

NinjaK

Good news, lets hope this trend continues.

sanbrafyffe

ya and 99% of them catholics,,,surely if they get a look at the souths social payouts,,it will be easy to know who they will vote:D

junder wrote: »

I wonder how much of the increase is due to the large numbers of Eastern Europeans now living in NI

gurramok

Looking at the figures on identity again, 47.74% opt for British something while 52% do not. 5% are neither British or Irish anything in their identity. http://www.ninis2.nisra.gov.uk/public/pivotgrid.aspx?dataSetVars=ds-2320-lh-37-yn-2011-sk-136-sn-Census%202011-yearfilter--
Those 5% are crucial for the number crunchers it seems.

BOHtox

I reckon a conservative nationalist party would take a good few votes from the more conservative unionist parties. I've always wondered why there isn't any right-wing nationalist parties in the north

sean200

sanbrafyffe wrote: »

yes i agree,,,lots of natioalists dont want anything to do with here yet due to the economic situation and i dont blame them,,do you,,,however should our finances turn and we show stable economic growth in many years to come,,,lots of them will tend to turn the way they did wen we had the boom...during the boom they did not have the population to do anything etc,,but they are in a much better position now

it will be years and years yet anyway

Will if you can even stop flying the union jack flag with out riots what the hell are those scumbags do if there was a vote in favour of a united ireland???

Fr Tod Umptious

gurramok wrote: »

Looking at the figures on identity again, 47.74% opt for British something while 52% do not. 5% are neither British or Irish anything in their identity. http://www.ninis2.nisra.gov.uk/public/pivotgrid.aspx?dataSetVars=ds-2320-lh-37-yn-2011-sk-136-sn-Census%202011-yearfilter--
Those 5% are crucial for the number crunchers it seems.

Only 26% odd see themselves as Irish only or Irish and Northern Irish only.

That is very low compared to the overall Catholic population.

Thus debunking the myth that Catholic = Irish

HellFireClub

If I was living in the north, as someone who was born a Catholic, I'd think long and hard about signing up to be governed by the government in this jurisdiction.

Fooker

This is much more important than the whole UI issue.

The vast majority of Catholics/Nationalists identify together. Those less passionate of their Irishness (33%) could be convinced easily enough. They do not generally see themselves as British. People in the north are more passive towards reunification and favour peace, this could change with time to heal and forget etc.

The biggest issue is that decisions such as those taken about the flag will now be more and more commonplace. The unionists only know how to work with a majority, how they will deal with being the minority will be interesting to say the least.

Equality and fairness for those of a nationalist background might finally be achieved.

gurramok

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Only 26% odd see themselves as Irish only or Irish and Northern Irish only.

That is very low compared to the overall Catholic population.

Thus debunking the myth that Catholic = Irish

Father Tod, re-read again. 21% said they were Northern Irish only, another 25% or so said they were Irish only, no British description in any of them, thats 46% in total. From looking at the LGD's, it seems alot of the Northern Irish tend to be in areas where they also describe themselves as having Catholic upbringing. Also those same LGD's return SF and SDLP voting patterns. The Unionist minorities in those districts tend to correspond to the numbers who declared themselves British in some way.(give or take a couple of %)

On the otherhand, the Northern Irish who tend to be in LGD's which also have large Protestant majorities tend to be most found in the most moderate council areas where Alliance tend to have a foothold.

ardmacha

Only 26% odd see themselves as Irish only or Irish and Northern Irish only.

That is very low compared to the overall Catholic population.

Thus debunking the myth that Catholic = Irish Thus debunking the myth that Catholic = Irish

It does nothing of the sort, West of Ireland people, North of Ireland people, even those in the Pale are all Irish.

[-0-]

46% Irish/Northern Ireland Irish vs 40% British. Sounds about right.

Death and Taxes

ardmacha wrote: »

It does nothing of the sort, West of Ireland people, North of Ireland people, even those in the Pale are all Irish.

the point is only 25% of those in Northern Ireland chose to describe themselves as Irish only, which does not auger well for those seeking a united Ireland.

Fr Tod Umptious

gurramok wrote: »

Father Tod, re-read again. 21% said they were Northern Irish only, another 25% or so said they were Irish only, no British description in any of them, thats 46% in total. From looking at the LGD's, it seems alot of the Northern Irish tend to be in areas where they also describe themselves as having Catholic upbringing. Also those same LGD's return SF and SDLP voting patterns. The Unionist minorities in those districts tend to correspond to the numbers who declared themselves British in some way.(give or take a couple of %)

On the otherhand, the Northern Irish who tend to be in LGD's which also have large Protestant majorities tend to be most found in the most moderate council areas where Alliance tend to have a foothold.

You can look at it that way certainly, but from a united Ireland point of view that 21% are not interested, they have no affinity to the rest of Ireland, just like they have no affinity to Britain.

The fact is that you have a Catholic population of 48% yet onlyhalf see themselves as having any affinity with the rest of the island

GSF

Since NI was always referred to by southern nationalists as a failed entity it's fair to say that those identifying themselves as Northern Irish are not natural bedfellows with those wanting a united Ireland. They would likely support the NI football team for example.

pablomakaveli

Seems like some people are trying to see the figures in a way that will back up their own preference for a UI. Just because 26 something percent say Northern Irish doesnt mean anything significant.

I know people from a Unionist background that would say they're Northern Irish. They still would be completely against a UI.

It'd probably be better for NI if everyone there identified themselves as Northern Irish instead of as Irish or British. It would hopefully lead to a less divided society.

woodoo

Fooker wrote: »

The biggest issue is that decisions such as those taken about the flag will now be more and more commonplace. The unionists only know how to work with a majority, how they will deal with being the minority will be interesting to say the least.

I would say there will be toys thrown out of the pram on a regular basis.

woodoo

WileyCoyote wrote: »

the point is only 25% of those in Northern Ireland chose to describe themselves as Irish only, which does not auger well for those seeking a united Ireland.

A united Ireland is a laughable proposition with Ireland in the state its in at the min. The Northern Irish identity is probably a good one because both communities can get behind it and live in peace. Maybe a UI will happen maybe it won't. There would be no point if it wouldn't be peaceful anyway.

I wish NI well if it stays as it is but would be happy for them to join us so long as discrimination and hatred were a thing of the past.

sanbrafyffe

exactly,,,looks like the majority of the new northern irish are catholics looking at the figures,,,they have no association with britian but neither want to associate with us due to economic reasons so are happy to go along with the everyday living in N.I as class themselves neutral for the time being
#
however in may years to come if it ever does come,these new northern irish will have to choose one side of the coin in a referendum ,unless they didnt want to vote

nowadays more catholics are voting as they have the same powers

i honestly think it would be easier to sway a northern irish catholic to vote on nationalist policies rather than a dup,uup british one

I wish NI well if it stays as it is but would be happy for them to join us so long as discrimination and hatred were a thing of the past.[/QUOTE]

nordydan

WileyCoyote wrote: »

the point is only 25% of those in Northern Ireland chose to describe themselves as Irish only, which does not auger well for those seeking a united Ireland.

I am from County Down and would have considered myself Irish only until I moved back to Dublin about 6 years ago (where I intend to stay and marry a freestater btw!). I now consider myself also Northern Irish (or northern) and would have done so in the census quoted today. The Republic of Ireland or its citizens have no monopoly on the Irish identity despite what they may think (and most do think in this way).

I still would like to see Ireland governed as one nation, so would be in favour of a United Ireland. I would not like to see a simple extension of the corrupt, stroke politics of the Dail into the North however. I do admire the parliamentary standards of the British House Of Commons. It is not perfect but it is leaps and bounds ahead of Leinster House - Willie O'Dea, Bertie, Mick Wallace, Lowry, the Healy Raes etc etc.

Regardless I do not believe that any of the parties in the Republic are interested in reunification. They are happy with their own circle of nepotism and corruption and would fear anything that rocks the boat.