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King George

  • 09-12-2012 9:21pm
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,818 ✭✭✭


    I am hoping to place an ante post bet on this race before the end of next week with an aim to capturing some value. It should be an absolute cracker that's or sure.

    Horses I fancy to be in the mix at the end of it
    -cue card
    -long run
    -Kauto stone
    -sizing europe

    I have hopes for cue card that he could win this race, I think he has the speed and the track will suit. similar to alot of people's views on sizing Europe he will travel on this track over 3 but I hope of he wins the tizzards don't lose the run of themselves and send him to the GC unless he blows them out of the water. I can picture him as a Ryanair horse after this race.
    Kauto stone - after showing his ability at this distance in DRoyal I think this race could be the making of him. I can't understand why Ruby is choosing Alferof.
    LR - I can't see myself backing him unless his price goes out
    SE- I think he will just fall short of the trip and he should go for the Ryanair also

    I plan on going through all the past videos to narrow my choices down but at the moment I'd be happy to side with cue card and Kauto stone. It's a tough race to call but I'm interested to hear people's angles


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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,101 ✭✭✭klairondavis


    No offence, but it doesn't sound like you have a strong enough opinion on the race to justify having an antepost bet on it. I'd wait until the day or at least until they go NRNB. There'll still be plenty of value in the market at that stage if most of the horses stand their ground.

    I wonder will Gigginstown be tempted to send Sir Des Champs over after a satisfactory introduction today? I know he has won on heavy before but I think his action suggests that he is more suited to better ground - far more likely to get that at Kempton than at Leopardstown. Mullins rarely travels with them before Cheltenham but he did send Florida Pearl over for this race.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,016 ✭✭✭Hulk Hands


    Really like Sizing Europe in this and hope he goes for. 3 miles around here on a soundish surface would be fine for him imo. Cue Card is the one that interests me outside of him. Looks potentially a very good race


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,818 ✭✭✭ste2010


    No offence, but it doesn't sound like you have a strong enough opinion on the race to justify having an antepost bet on it. I'd wait until the day or at least until they go NRNB. There'll still be plenty of value in the market at that stage if most of the horses stand their ground.

    I wonder will Gigginstown be tempted to send Sir Des Champs over after a satisfactory introduction today? I know he has won on heavy before but I think his action suggests that he is more suited to better ground - far more likely to get that at Kempton than at Leopardstown. Mullins rarely travels with them before Cheltenham but he did send Florida Pearl over for this race.
    Thanks klarion. I wasn't planning on antepost until end of next week so have a little to look at until then but have narrowed it down. I can see prices shifting a fair bit after that and want to be sure to have a decent price..isn't SDC next step the Lexus?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,775 ✭✭✭✭Slattsy


    Torn between Sizing Europe (heart) and Cue Card (head).

    I do have stamina doubt about SE, especially on soft ground so i'd be inclined to wait until the day. But if he is ever going to win at 3m it will be at Kempton. I do love this horse.

    Really impressed with Cue Card on his first run this season. He has the best form in the book in my eyes (with Bobs Worth/Sprinter Sacre) and he'll definately stay. Travels well and Tinkler can run the race whatever way suits him.

    So Cue Card for me, with a saver on SE !!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,873 ✭✭✭RichieLawlor


    Slattsy wrote: »
    Torn between Sizing Europe (heart) and Cue Card (head).

    I do have stamina doubt about SE, especially on soft ground so i'd be inclined to wait until the day. But if he is ever going to win at 3m it will be at Kempton. I do love this horse.

    Really impressed with Cue Card on his first run this season. He has the best form in the book in my eyes (with Bobs Worth/Sprinter Sacre) and he'll definately stay. Travels well and Tinkler can run the race whatever way suits him.

    So Cue Card for me, with a saver on SE !!

    Tinkler? I'm sure you mean Tizzard.

    Muppet.

    Also if your relying on a cunning Joe Tizzard ride to give the horse a better chance then your dead in the water


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 244 ✭✭Jayo11780


    Riverside Theatre all day long for me...
    Stays the distance (2nd to LR in this 2 years ago).. Back to his best form, Probably Barry Geraghty on board, goes well fresh..
    8/1 looks very inviting to me - I'll wait until closer to the time to have a bet though!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,775 ✭✭✭✭Slattsy


    Tinkler? I'm sure you mean Tizzard.

    Muppet.

    Also if your relying on a cunning Joe Tizzard ride to give the horse a better chance then your dead in the water


    ^^^^ Improve your grammer ;) tut tut

    Re: Tizzard, not the best jockey in the World, but certainly far from the worst. Wouldnt stop me backing him in the slightest and he's not given CC a bad ride yet...... €€€
    lol dead in the water = :D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,706 ✭✭✭premierstone


    Slattsy wrote: »
    ^^^^ Improve your grammer ;) tut tut

    Re: Tizzard, not the best jockey in the World, but certainly far from the worst. Wouldnt stop me backing him in the slightest and he's not given CC a bad ride yet...... €€€
    lol dead in the water = :D

    If you are going to be a grammar nazi at least spell grammar correctly ;)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,775 ✭✭✭✭Slattsy



    If you are going to be a grammar nazi at least spell grammar correctly ;)

    God damn it lol
    Funniest thing I've laughed at in a quite some time :-)

    My grammar is great, but my spelling is cat.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 878 ✭✭✭Huntley


    I have never felt Sizing Europe was a 3 miler and still don't. People point to his 3 mile contests coming over testing conditions which I also have difficulty accepting. He has ran and won on difficult ground before and when he was beaten by that mule Quito last year he emptied like a horse who just didn't stay.

    Also, I don't quite understand those who advocate if he gets the trip it will be at Kempton. Haydock is a far tighter track and unless you think the long run in would be a factor than I certainly think that would suit him more. Still haven't figured out why he hasn't run in the Betfair considering they have been set on testing his stamina for 3 seasons.

    Kauto Stone is a nothing horse, don't waste your time thinking he is a contendor.

    I really like Cue Card and think he is a fantastic horse, but also have stamina reservations. He is bred to stay but the visual impression he left when beaten at Newbury last November wasn't good. He doesn't seem to have strengthened considerably and still looks a little light and airy to really grind out a tough 3 miles. His exuberance is detrimental in this regard but not one I would totally write off yet.

    Captain Chris could potentially be a player on this right handed track, his uninterrupted season is a benefit this time around but he just doesn't strike me as the winner.

    Long Run is a glorified plodder but that may be enough to win this contest.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,016 ✭✭✭Hulk Hands


    SE's first run over 3 miles at Down Royal, I thought he stayed out the trip well enough that day. He was just beaten by a better horse in Kauto Star, although not by much. I've never seen Kempton any worse than good to soft on stephens day, and it will certainly be much better than what he encountered either time in Down Royal. I'm confident enough he'll get the trip. Cue Card i'd be less sure off, but he's the one with the real speed to get on top here. At a potential 6/1 for each on the day, i'd be prepared to take them two against the field in the hope that one will love the race conditions. With so much talent in the race, i'd be disappointed if Long Run wins it by running anywhere close to his recent form


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,818 ✭✭✭ste2010


    Huntley wrote: »

    Kauto Stone is a nothing horse, don't waste your time thinking he is a contendor.
    .

    Do you not think the way he took care of first lieutenant in down royal FTO this season was impressive ?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 878 ✭✭✭Huntley


    ste2010 wrote: »
    Do you not think the way he took care of first lieutenant in down royal FTO this season was impressive ?

    Not really. Certainly not something I think was true Grade 1 standard. He just looks an average enough animal who probably doesn't have much improvement in him.

    I don't think he has a hope in the King George, he would do well to finish in the top 5.
    Slattsy wrote: »
    Tizzard, not the best jockey in the World, but certainly far from the worst. Wouldnt stop me backing him in the slightest and he's not given CC a bad ride yet

    That careless look around on Cue Card in Newbury last November was criminal. I like Cue Card but Tizzard is absolutely brutal, terribly unbalanced and a pretty poor judge of pace.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,818 ✭✭✭ste2010


    I just watched that race again in newbury against bobs worth...what a clown...he didn't just do it once he did it twice..I wouldn't mind bet its not like he swiveled his head he nearly turned his hole upper body around...eeejit. I'd say he learned a lesson that day


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,144 ✭✭✭BQQ


    ste2010 wrote: »
    Do you not think the way he took care of first lieutenant in down royal FTO this season was impressive ?


    I seem to recall his only win last year was first time out at Down Royal too.
    Went on to be beaten miles by Riverside Theatre and Finians Rainbow later in the season.

    I expect it will be the same story this year.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,818 ✭✭✭ste2010


    That was bang in the middle
    Of the problems in nicholls yard. So far we've seen a different Alferof, cristal bonus, zarkandar and possibly Kauto stone among the others that are flying for nicholls.
    Zarkandar a return was very impressive, I would have loved to see him race in the international or Christmas hurdle this year


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,205 ✭✭✭Gringo180


    If The Giant Bolster runs in this I fancy him to go very close.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35 baazzaa


    ste2010 wrote: »
    Do you not think the way he took care of first lieutenant in down royal FTO this season was impressive ?

    i thought it was a good performance myself, he traveled and jumped well,
    First Leutennat is a good animal, has solid form with Bobs Worth.
    This Horse cam from France with a Big Rep and is a solid jumper with a big engine, hes not a massive horse so
    a flatter track may well suit him also.

    He stays and was second in a tingle creek,when he was only five of level weights with sizing europe , thats solid form for a 5 yr old that proably wanted further,alot of nicholls 6yrd old have come on a right bit as they were not great last year.

    i think he could be underestimated, and if it came up soft you could be sure hes stay alot better than alot of these, 14/1 looks value,

    hes also a four yr old grade 1 winner in France, that make him a dual grade 1 winner, has a grade two and second in a tingle creek, I think he had a few issues last year also so id draw a line through his two end runs last season. He prob needs to be kept fresh,

    Jockey says he would improve for run and was very happy with him, hes not there to make up number and the way Nicholls horse are he could run a big race


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 208 ✭✭Sammo13


    No Al Ferof or Sizing Europe, First L going to Lexus... this race is cutting up, 3 henderson horses, Cue Card and Kauto Stone look to be the main contenders.. so hopefully Willie Mullins will send over SDC as he would have a serious chance, 3m around Kempton on good to soft ground would be fine. He should come on a bundle for the Durkan race and with Gigginstown having FL in the Lexus and the KG now cutting up, SDC may well be on his way, fingers crossed.. follow in the hoofs of the Pearl..


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,286 ✭✭✭✭mdwexford


    Always does cut up, think it would be an ideal race for SDC and I wouldnt be afraid of anyone currently near the head of the betting.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,547 ✭✭✭droidman123


    Sammo13 wrote: »
    No Al Ferof or Sizing Europe, First L going to Lexus... this race is cutting up, 3 henderson horses, Cue Card and Kauto Stone look to be the main contenders.. so hopefully Willie Mullins will send over SDC as he would have a serious chance, 3m around Kempton on good to soft ground would be fine. He should come on a bundle for the Durkan race and with Gigginstown having FL in the Lexus and the KG now cutting up, SDC may well be on his way, fingers crossed.. follow in the hoofs of the Pearl..
    Cue card was always my fancy for the king george,i,m just sorry i didnt back it before al ferof got injured...damn he was 7/1...wont get that now.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 16,096 ✭✭✭✭the groutch


    will be dutching Kauto Stone and Sir Des Champs, works out 9/2 for either to win


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,101 ✭✭✭klairondavis


    mdwexford wrote: »
    Always does cut up, think it would be an ideal race for SDC and I wouldnt be afraid of anyone currently near the head of the betting.

    I'd love to see him take his chance here. Gigginstown don't look to have many chances at Leopardstown or Limerick on Stephen's Day. They have nothing in the 3yo hurdle and I doubt Sword Of Destiny would handle Arvika Legionnaire or Oscars Well for speed over two miles. Dedigout will probably win the Greenmount at Limerick if he runs but Russell didn't go to ride Sir Des Champs in that last year.

    I think Kempton would suit him. Cue Card will take them along at a good clip and stamina and jumping will be at a premium. I could see him sitting fairly handily and outstaying them. It looks a really open year and as you say there's no one at the top of the market who you would fear:

    Long Run - indifferent jumper, looks like he has lost a gear, inept jockey.
    Cue Card - can run with the choke out and make the odd jumping error, not certain to stay.
    Riverside Theatre - lacks a prep run, doubtful stayer if it turns into a slog.
    Sizing Europe - unlikely to run.
    Grands Crus - doubtful runner, well below par on last two runs.
    Captain Chris - doubtful stayer, probably not good enough anyway.
    Kauto Stone - didn't progress last season, looks like he needs deep ground.
    Finians Rainbow - doubtful runner and doubtful stayer in any case.
    The Giant Bolster - not good enough.
    Hunt Ball - not good enough.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,873 ✭✭✭RichieLawlor



    Long Run - indifferent jumper, looks like he has lost a gear, inept jockey.
    Cue Card - can run with the choke out and make the odd jumping error, not certain to stay.
    Riverside Theatre - lacks a prep run, doubtful stayer if it turns into a slog. Best form fresh, prep run not necessary. Stayed 2m5f at the festival very well, no stamina doubts
    Sizing Europe - unlikely to run.
    Grands Crus - doubtful runner, well below par on last two runs.likely to run now
    Captain Chris - doubtful stayer, probably not good enough anyway. certainly good enough, better right handed, oozes class.
    Kauto Stone - didn't progress last season, looks like he needs deep ground.
    Finians Rainbow - doubtful runner and doubtful stayer in any case. confirmed runner
    The Giant Bolster - not good enough.
    Hunt Ball - not good enough.

    Added some stuff


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,184 ✭✭✭3ndahalfof6


    Added some stuff

    in red.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,775 ✭✭✭✭Slattsy


    in red.

    in red


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,818 ✭✭✭ste2010



    Added some stuff
    I seen this post and thought it was by 1 person first..the most bipolar person on the planet!!
    Did you really write captain Chris oozes class...c'mon Richie are you sure that wasn't for some other horse??

    Looking at the market I will take a chance on cue card..there are questions there to be answered but hopefully he can do it..
    Looking at prices I'd consider giving finians rainbow and ew or place bet..I think we can forgive him for his last run and last year Geraghty never stopped saying he needed further to show his true class...he is the same horse..he doesn't like ascot


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,873 ✭✭✭RichieLawlor


    ste2010 wrote: »
    I seen this post and thought it was by 1 person first..the most bipolar person on the planet!!
    Did you really write captain Chris oozes class...c'mon Richie are you sure that wasn't for some other horse??

    Looking at the market I will take a chance on cue card..there are questions there to be answered but hopefully he can do it..
    Looking at prices I'd consider giving finians rainbow and ew or place bet..I think we can forgive him for his last run and last year Geraghty never stopped saying he needed further to show his true class...he is the same horse..he doesn't like ascot

    Captain Chris, yes. He will win the KG


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,818 ✭✭✭ste2010



    Captain Chris, yes. He will win the KG
    This is your selection :D I thought you were joking...
    I fancied him to win at ascot last time as an unpopular selection but Its difficult for me to see him winning this..given his form last year you could probably draw right through I still can't see him strong enough unless some of the horses with distance question marks go unanswered and long run has a worse day at the office than he's had over the past season and a half..best of luck with it though I'm sure you'll get a decent price


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,101 ✭✭✭klairondavis


    Riverside Theatre - lacks a prep run, doubtful stayer if it turns into a slog. Best form fresh, prep run not necessary. Stayed 2m5f at the festival very well, no stamina doubts
    Captain Chris - doubtful stayer, probably not good enough anyway. certainly good enough, better right handed, oozes class.
    Finians Rainbow - doubtful runner and doubtful stayer in any case. confirmed runner

    I'd accept your argument about Riverside Theatre going well fresh. I can't agree that he's a guaranteed stayer though. Kempton is a quick track but 3 miles is 3 miles no matter where it is. The chase track there also suits horses that race handily so that puts a further premium on stamina. The horse does shape like three miles should not be a problem but all his best form is at two and a half thus far. He has tried three miles twice - beaten 12 lengths second in this race two years ago and pulled up at Aintree last back end.

    I like Captain Chris and he did me a few favours in the past, particularly when winning the Arkle. I'm not sure the best of his form (mid 160s) will be good enough here. He will probably have to put up a performance in the 170s to win this and I don't think he is likely to find that sort of improvement over this trip and on the likely tacky ground.

    Finians Rainbow might have been confirmed by Henderson but we've heard it all before from that yard. The drift over the past few days has to be a worry and he appears quite ground dependent - even more so than Captain Chris. The ground is likely to be at least on the soft side of yielding come tomorrow week with all the rain forecast. I could see him being withdrawn on the morning of the race.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 208 ✭✭Sammo13


    Capt Chris was beaten a mile last year, won last time getting 10 lbs from Finans rainbow... just can't see him winning, right handed will help but I think he is a 160/163 rated horse at best so will probably need to find 7 to 10 lbs to beat Long Run.

    If SDC does not go, I'll probably back Long Run, think he may go off 3/1 and most likely soft ground will help, repeat of last years run will probably do it.

    Grand Crus is last minute decision, so is SDC, Finans rainbow might'in run if it is very soft which it may well turn out to be as 40mm due to hit Ascot this w/e, so Kempton must be getting the same weather.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 327 ✭✭Arctic89


    Boylesports currently 8/1 about SDC and NRNB looks a pretty good proposition to me.

    His last run wasn't inspiring but he looked like he might need the run and for my money, he's got the most ability in the race. Will probably appreciate the better ground aswell.

    Slight worry is his jumping, he jumped left on his last race at Punchestown last year and his jumping never overly impressed me on that day or his reappearance this term. Kempton being both a right handed and a pretty fast track, I'd worry a mistake would put paid to his chances. Still though at 8/1 he's got to be overpriced and I'll prob take a bit of this later on.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35 baazzaa


    I'd love to see him take his chance here. Gigginstown don't look to have many chances at Leopardstown or Limerick on Stephen's Day. They have nothing in the 3yo hurdle and I doubt Sword Of Destiny would handle Arvika Legionnaire or Oscars Well for speed over two miles. Dedigout will probably win the Greenmount at Limerick if he runs but Russell didn't go to ride Sir Des Champs in that last year.

    I think Kempton would suit him. Cue Card will take them along at a good clip and stamina and jumping will be at a premium. I could see him sitting fairly handily and outstaying them. It looks a really open year and as you say there's no one at the top of the market who you would fear:

    Long Run - indifferent jumper, looks like he has lost a gear, inept jockey.
    Cue Card - can run with the choke out and make the odd jumping error, not certain to stay.
    Riverside Theatre - lacks a prep run, doubtful stayer if it turns into a slog.
    Sizing Europe - unlikely to run.
    Grands Crus - doubtful runner, well below par on last two runs.
    Captain Chris - doubtful stayer, probably not good enough anyway.
    Kauto Stone - didn't progress last season, looks like he needs deep ground.
    Finians Rainbow - doubtful runner and doubtful stayer in any case.
    The Giant Bolster - not good enough.
    Hunt Ball - not good enough.

    Kaut Stone was only 5 last year, so he has all the time in the world to progress


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    Arctic89 wrote: »
    Boylesports currently 8/1 about SDC and NRNB looks a pretty good proposition to me.
    [\Quote]
    They've cut it to 7/1

    Was gonna have some 8s WAR


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,873 ✭✭✭RichieLawlor


    Sammo13 wrote: »
    Capt Chris was beaten a mile last year

    When he was woefully out of form and still stayed on really well to finish third. Already proved his well being and apart from LR, is the best horse in the race on all known form


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 878 ✭✭✭Huntley


    I think Cue Card is the key to this race. If he puts a decent pace into the race then you would have to question how many will be able to grind it out, himself included. There is plenty of stamina in his breeding but I just think his exuberance will get the better of him and he will fall into a hole at some stage.

    In contrast to that a steady pace will bring half the field into play. I couldn't back Grands Crus after his last run but the Feltham form from last year is rock solid and if he can reproduce that he will be difficult to beat if it's a slowly run affair.

    Personally I think there is too much quality in the race for it not to be a truly run affair and would think Long Run is the one to beat. He is a one paced brute but he has never run a bad race at Kempton. Last year's effort was a cracking run, he absolutely motored up the straight and it was just unfortunate that he was trying to pass a superstar. Haydock is as sharp a track as you will get and I backed Silviniaco Conti to beat him in the Betfair, but I didn't like the proximity of The Giant Bolster. TGB ran a credible second in a brutal Gold Cup last year but he is just an average animal, it was only 12 months ago when he couldn't beat that boat Time For Rupert.

    At 3/1 I'd probably take a chance that Long Run's tenacity will see him home in this contest, plenty of quality animals from the second season chasers but plenty of question marks with many of the field.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,547 ✭✭✭droidman123


    Huntley wrote: »
    I think Cue Card is the key to this race. If he puts a decent pace into the race then you would have to question how many will be able to grind it out, himself included. There is plenty of stamina in his breeding but I just think his exuberance will get the better of him and he will fall into a hole at some stage.

    In contrast to that a steady pace will bring half the field into play. I couldn't back Grands Crus after his last run but the Feltham form from last year is rock solid and if he can reproduce that he will be difficult to beat if it's a slowly run affair.

    Personally I think there is too much quality in the race for it not to be a truly run affair and would think Long Run is the one to beat. He is a one paced brute but he has never run a bad race at Kempton. Last year's effort was a cracking run, he absolutely motored up the straight and it was just unfortunate that he was trying to pass a superstar. Haydock is as sharp a track as you will get and I backed Silviniaco Conti to beat him in the Betfair, but I didn't like the proximity of The Giant Bolster. TGB ran a credible second in a brutal Gold Cup last year but he is just an average animal, it was only 12 months ago when he couldn't beat that boat Time For Rupert.

    At 3/1 I'd probably take a chance that Long Run's tenacity will see him home in this contest, plenty of quality animals from the second season chasers but plenty of question marks with many of the field.
    The problem with long run is a lot of French horse,s tend to peak early in their career, not all French horse,s but a lot. They seem to over run them when trained in France. I,m not saying long run is finished by any stretch, but its just food for thought. And before people start quoting the likes of kauto star and quevega, I am just making a generalisation .


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,775 ✭✭✭✭Slattsy


    The problem with long run is a lot of French horse,s tend to peak early in their career, not all French horse,s but a lot. They seem to over run them when trained in France. I,m not saying long run is finished by any stretch, but its just food for thought. And before people start quoting the likes of kauto star and quevega, I am just making a generalisation .

    You're crazy. Ridiculous comment. Get the boat!
    What about the likes the Kauto Star and Quevega ??
    You're crazy, I like you, but you're crazy.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 327 ✭✭Arctic89


    Arctic89 wrote: »
    Boylesports currently 8/1 about SDC and NRNB looks a pretty good proposition to me.
    [\Quote]
    They've cut it to 7/1

    Was gonna have some 8s WAR

    Still think there's a bit of value at 7s. If he showed up on the day, I'd expect him to be 5 or 6/1, given that he was ahead of all of these in the Gold Cup betting only 2 weeks ago.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 338 ✭✭faoile@n


    Arctic89 wrote: »
    Still think there's a bit of value at 7s. If he showed up on the day, I'd expect him to be 5 or 6/1, given that he was ahead of all of these in the Gold Cup betting only 2 weeks ago.
    Him being ahead of them in the betting means nothing. The reason he's so short in the gold cup market is the hype of his Jewson win.

    While there is plenty of scope for improvement his best form is on good ground at Chelntenham.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 327 ✭✭Arctic89


    faoile@n wrote: »
    Him being ahead of them in the betting means nothing. The reason he's so short in the gold cup market is the hype of his Jewson win.

    I agree his Jewson win was over hyped and I've never thought he deserved his place at the head of the Gold Cup market. I'm just saying if he shows up, he won''t be as high as 7/1 as many people in the market would have him ahead of most of the other runners on ability. So 7/1 with NRNB is great value when he'll be shorter on the day.
    While there is plenty of scope for improvement his best form is on good ground at Chelntenham.

    I've already posted about my fears of the track not playing to his strengths
    but ground wise, I can't see him being hindered by anything other than heavy ground and I doubt we'll get that.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    Sir Des stays at home by the looks of things on Betfair


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,101 ✭✭✭klairondavis


    Sir Des stays at home by the looks of things on Betfair

    Looking that way. I thought at first it might be a reaction to him being left in the Lexus this afternoon but he cannot be given away now.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 208 ✭✭Sammo13


    Currently 15/1 on betfair, looks like he is going to run in the Lexas alright.. If this is the case, will side with Long Run if the ground is good to soft or worse, which it probably will be. Kauto Stone ew if very soft as I think Cue Card, Riverside, Capt C will struggle over 3m in soft going..


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,370 ✭✭✭rossom


    Arctic89 wrote: »
    Boylesports currently 8/1 about SDC and NRNB looks a pretty good proposition to me.

    The only bet I am willing to take for this at the moment (7/1 now). The Lexus already looks set to have the Gigginstown trio of First Lieutenant, War Amnesty and Quito De La Roque and Michael O'Leary has always made a conscious effort to keep his horses apart (prime example being First Lieutenant and Sir Des Champs at Cheltenham). Thus, I find it very hard to believe that he would run 4 in the same race. However, Willie Mullins is very reluctant to bring his Cheltenham hopefuls over to England prior to March and it certainly would be a rare occurrence if SDC did so.

    The Mullins team were quick to dispel rumours that Quevega would go for the World Hurdle this season and the fact that they have yet to definitively announce his next target leads me to feel they are definitely considering the King George for SDC. I think it looks an extremely winnable race (more so than the Lexus) and I think he'd take an awful lot of beating if turning up.

    Another way to look at it is you're getting 7/1 about a horse who will probably start half that price if turning up on the day and you'll get your money back if he doesn't.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,370 ✭✭✭rossom


    Sammo13 wrote: »
    Currently 15/1 on betfair, looks like he is going to run in the Lexas alright.. If this is the case, will side with Long Run if the ground is good to soft or worse, which it probably will be. Kauto Stone ew if very soft as I think Cue Card, Riverside, Capt C will struggle over 3m in soft going..

    Currently 9/2 for the Lexus market which is a little bigger than you'd expect as well. I think that its possible a final decision may not have been made


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,101 ✭✭✭klairondavis


    With the overnight rain Kempton is now soft and there is further rain forecast. Maybe Mullins/Gigginstown are thinking the ground might be no better there than it will be at Leopardstown?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,775 ✭✭✭✭Slattsy


    I read yesterday on the Twitter machine that the ground is softer there than any other time in the last decade.

    I suppose that's why SE isnt going.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 327 ✭✭Arctic89


    With the overnight rain Kempton is now soft and there is further rain forecast. Maybe Mullins/Gigginstown are thinking the ground might be no better there than it will be at Leopardstown?
    Slattsy wrote: »
    I read yesterday on the Twitter machine that the ground is softer there than any other time in the last decade.

    I suppose that's why SE isnt going.

    Read this in the RP this morning aswell, isn't it usually Good/Good to Soft over there for this meeting though. So Soft would be the worst they've had in years?

    Anything up to soft/heavy won't inconvenience SDC, he's won on it before but Klairon is right, it might not be worth the trip from Mullins point of view, if the same ground is available just up the road. Don't think he'll beat Flemenstar around Leapordstown for what it's worth.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,873 ✭✭✭RichieLawlor


    Arctic89 wrote: »
    Read this in the RP this morning aswell, isn't it usually Good/Good to Soft over there for this meeting though. So Soft would be the worst they've had in years?

    Anything up to soft/heavy won't inconvenience SDC, he's won on it before but Klairon is right, it might not be worth the trip from Mullins point of view, if the same ground is available just up the road. Don't think he'll beat Flemenstar around Leapordstown for what it's worth.

    Flemenstar won't get home over 3m on the forecast ground. I'd have more chance of staying the trip


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