HEC: Munster vs Saracens, Thomond Park, Sat 8th November 18.00

Fireball07

V

Munster
15. Felix Jones, 14. Doug Howlett, 13. Keith Earls, 12. James Downey, 11. Simon Zebo, 10. Ronan O'Gara, 9. Conor Murray, 1. Dave Kilcoyne, 2. Mike Sherry, 3. BJ Botha, 4. Donncha O'Callaghan, 5. Donnacha Ryan, 6. Dave O'Callaghan, 7. Peter O'Mahony, 8. James Coughlan.

Replacements: 16. Damien Varley, 17. Wian du Preez, 18. Stephen Archer, 19. Billy Holland, 20. Paddy Butler, 21. Duncan Williams, 22. Ian Keatley, 23. Casey Laulala.

Saracens:
15. Alex Goode, 14. Chris Ashton, 13. Owen Farrell, 12. Brad Barritt, 11. Chris Wyles, 10. Charlie Hodgson, 9. Neil de Kock, 1. Rhys Gill, 2. Schalk Brits, 3. Matt Stevens, 4. Steve Borthwick, 5. Mouritz Botha, 6. Kelly Brown, 7. Will Fraser, 8. Ernst Joubert.

Replacements: 16. John Smit, 17. Mako Vunipola, 18. Petrus du Plessis, 19. George Kruis, 20. Andy Saull, 21. Richard Wigglesworth, 22. Joel Tomkins, 23. David Strettle.


Match Officials
Referee: Pascal Gauzere (France)
Assistant Referee: Christophe Berdos (France)
Assistant Referee: Cyril Lafon (France)
Fourth Official: Frank Butler (Ireland)
TMO: Jean-Pierre Pellaprat (France)
Citing Commissioner: Douglas Hunter (Scotland)


Introduction
The Heineken Cup is a wonderful competition, it truly is. Only approaching the halfway mark of the pool stages yet we are talking about season-defining games. A loss for Munster this weekend would almost certainly rule them out of contention for qualification for the quarter-finals. And against a strong Saracens side, going well in the Aviva Premiership, a loss is entirely possible, the English side will certainly fancy their chances of emulating Leicester and Ulster in beating Munster on Thomond Park soil. The home side are not the force they once were and are undergoing a transition period under the guidance of New Zealander, Rob Penney. Meanwhile, Saracens have a nice blend of youth and experience, in a team packed with internationals. It will certainly make for a fascinating clash.

Performance so Far
Munster suffered an early setback in the competition, losing to Racing Metro even after a late Simon Zebo try looked to have snatched them a victory. They did bounce back from their loss in Paris to defeat Edinburgh 33-0, acquiring a late bonus point in that game.

Saracens have won 2 from 2, hammering Edinburgh 45-0 away from home, and also beating Racing 30-13 at home. Collecting 9 points from their first 2 games, it puts them in pole position to qualify from the group and they will expect to win at least once against Munster over the next two weekends to all-but-guarantee their place in the knockout stages.

Stander Out, Other Selections

A big blow to Munster was the news that much-hyped new signing, CJ Stander, was ruled out with a broken bone in his hand. The 22-year-old South African had fueled the hype further by scoring 2 tries on his first start for the province, including a spectacular effort, running from his own 22 to touch down in the corner. His absence will be a big blow for Munster, as he promised to add much-needed physicality to Munster's back row. His injury is further accented by the fact that many of his replacements are also out injured. Tommy O'Donnell, who looked in fine form in the same game, picked up an injury while the other 7s on the books, Sean Dougall and Niall Ronan were both injured in clashes against Welsh sides, Cardiff and Llanelli respectively. It means that Dave O'Callaghan has stepped up to the first team and a big performance is needed from the young Corkman, who is yet to fully live up to his potential. One massive bonus for Munster is the return of the experienced James Coughlan, who came through the game against Glasgow without setback and will added much needed leadership to the Munster pack from no. 8.

Elsewhere, Paul O'Connell is still missing from the 2nd row but the in-form Donncha O'Callaghan and last season's standout player, Donnacha Ryan, still make a formidable partnership. David Kilcoyne continues at loosehead prop, James Downey and Keith Earls form Munster's centre partnership with Casey Laulala dropping to the bench, Felix Jones' good form since his return from injury has secured him a starting spot but one of the main talking points is the selection of Ronan O'Gara at out-half. It is not unexpected, but there are question marks over O'Gara's ability at this level currently. His kicking from the tee is still top class, and if you want to kick for territory, he is still one of the best around but Ian Keatley is probably more suited to the gameplan Rob Penney is trying to implement, and the 25-year-old's form this season has been good so it seems a bit harsh to drop him but Penney has made the call, and Munster fans have to assume he is making the right one.

Saracens have an experienced team and only make one change from the team that beat Racing in Round 2, with the experienced South African Ernst Joubert coming back in at no. 8. Charlie Hodgson has been in fine form this season and continues at fly-half with the younger Owen Farrell, recently shortlisted for IRB Player of the Year, still at outside centre despite playing at out-half in England's fine victory over New Zealand.

Key Players
If Munster want to win, they will need to have a strong set-piece and young Dave Kilcoyne will need to have a big performance against the 39-times capped Matt Stevens. BJ Botha, as ever, will be crucial to Munster's chances particularly with the lack of a real quality replacement in the ranks.

Saracens have won 100% of their lineouts in the competition to date, South African Schalk Brits is another experienced campaigner and an excellent hooker, while English duo Mouritz Botha and Steve Borthwick are always strong in the lineout. Munster have been up-and-down this season with their lineout, Mike Sherry needs to have one of his good days, because if he does, the likes of Ryan, O'Callaghan and O'Mahony should be able to secure their own ball at the very least.

But Saracens' backs do look very dangerous: the back 3 of Goode, Ashton and Wyles are all well able to score tries and if Hodgson can get the backline moving, they could be a real threat to Munster. Similarly, Munster have potential with the likes of Zebo, Earls and Howlett and there will be a big onus on Conor Murray to provide quick ball and also on O'Gara to get the ball to the outside backs. The inclusion of James Downey at 12 is probably to assist O'Gara and gives them the option of using him as a crashball option, and if they get the support running and offloading right, they could pose the Saracens defence problems. Either way, it will be an intriguing contest but Munster fans will be hoping they don't get to see any swan dives from Mr. Ashton (no, I couldn't resist, sue me )

Thomond Park Factor?
Will the home crowd at Thomond Park make a difference? All Munster fans will remember the famous victory against the same opposition back in 2000, with Ronan O'Gara's last-minute conversion sealing victory and helped them on their way to their first Heineken Cup final appearance. It was one of 2 1-point victories against Saracens in that season, and it would be impossible to say that the fans did not play a part in that. However, will it make a difference tomorrow? It is hard to see such an experienced side succumbing to the pressure of a hostile atmosphere, so while a rocking Thomond Park can't hurt Munster's chances, it's unlikely to make Saracens buckle as other sides may have in the past. Still, kick off at 6pm...a massive Heineken Cup match in Limerick on a Saturday evening... it would make anyone drool at the prospect of the upcoming game... and Hodgson has known to be flaky in the past... you never know what will happen!

Predictions
I have said I have a bad feeling about this game... on paper, it looks like Saracens might have the upper hand. But as we all know, games are not won on paper, and it's not like Munster have a bad team out. If everything clicks for Munster, they certainly can win. Their defence has, in general, been good this year... sometimes the attacking play has been a little lacking and they haven't performed for a full 80 minutes yet, and have actually lost against all the "big" teams they have played thus far (Leinster, Ulster, Ospreys, Racing). Saracens are 2nd in the Premiership, going well and will fancy their chances of victory. But in the name of optimism, ignoring my bad feeling, and going with what I so badly want to happen, I am going to give Munster the nod, in what will be a very close encounter.
So...Munster by less than 5



Disclaimer: Sorry for the delay, first preview write-up...big match nerves got to me And I don't claim or aspire to be better than thomond, who is undoubtedly the master of this area. Still...I did my best

tolosenc

Saracens

It'll be close, but Munster in Thomond is too much to ask of Sarries. Disappointed that Keatley isn't starting, but it is a very good looking back 3. Wouldn't mind seeing Laulala for Jones after 50 minutes, with Earls to 11 with Zebo to 15.

Archer on the bench is terrifying. An injury to Botha early on and Munster would be doing well to get into the Amlin.

jamiedav2011

Nice writeup.

Sarries to nick it for me, will be a huge test of their mettle though.

I think Munster will need the forward platform to win this, and Sarries may be able to match them.

Just look at the Sarries bench compared to Munster also.

16 John Smit
17 Mako Vunipola
18 Petrus du Plessis
19 George Kruis
20 Andy Saull
21 Richard Wigglesworth
22 Joel Tomkins
23 David Strettle*

versus

D Varley, W du Preez, S Archer, B Holland, P Butler, D Williams, I Keatley, C Laulala.

Would make Sarries favourite in at least 5 of those battles, and Kruis v. Holland, Keatley v. Tomkins and Laulala v. Strettle are close run things at best.

Very little to make a difference for Munster from the pine.

[Jackass]

Anton Pitout

Hodgson will be targetted no doubt. 10's tend to have a flakey time in Thomond Park which can often get them off the hook, but this should be a good match up.

From Saracens point of view, Kilcoyne will have to justify his two caps in the scrum. He has a strong unit behind him, but this will be a decent test of his ability.

Munster backline beyond half backs looks very nice. Probably the strongest and most balanced selection, so should see them do some damage there.

I don't rate sarries as a great side, but I do think they might sniff an upset here, it all depends on how the backrows compete, but I voted for Sarries just to play Devils advocate, but in reality, Munster will need to win this one well to be considered contenders, this sarries side isn't great.

ray jay

Anton Pitout

I'm worried Munster will ship the ball from side to side without much to show for it while the Sarries kick their points. Hopefully we'll see some of the great attacking play Munster displayed earlier in the season, but that was generally with Keatley at 10.

jamiedav2011

ray jay wrote: »

I'm worried Munster will ship the ball from side to side without much to show for it while the Sarries kick their points. Hopefully we'll see some of the great attacking play Munster displayed earlier in the season, but that was generally with Keatley at 10.

Yeah that's a good point. Downey over Laulala should see they get some go forward though.

Barritt against Downey will be huge tbh.

They're two very similar sides actually.

Good packs, grand backrows, two 10s with most of their rugby behind them and raging agains the light, two 12s who are basically bosh merchants but important ones, two 13s who harbour Lions ambitions and, to many are out of position and potent back threes with attacking flair over solidity in general.

Fireball07

Saracens

jamiedav2011 wrote: »

Yeah that's a good point. Downey over Laulala should see they get some go forward though.

Barritt against Downey will be huge tbh.

They're two very similar sides actually.

Good packs, grand backrows, two 10s with most of their rugby behind them and raging agains the light, two 12s who are basically bosh merchants but important ones, two 13s who harbour Lions ambitions and, to many are out of position and potent back threes with attacking flair over solidity in general.

Yeah, I noticed that when I was doing the write-up...there are a lot of similarities.

That said, in an attacking sense Hodgson has the advantage over ROG but I think Earls is a much more potent attacker than Farrell. I think they have a slight edge in the back row...but if Stander had been playing, I think we'd have had the advantage.

If Ryan, POM, Murray, Zebo, Earls have good games, we'll be in with a chance.

eyeball kid

Saracens

Nice write up Fireball, well done.

Very unsure about. this game and can't pick a winner (proudly sitting on the fence ) but really hope Munster can do it. Going to be tough though with Saracens playing well in the Premiership.

Not sure about the ROG selection though. I thought Keatley was playing well enough when the 1st round of matches was on to have retained his place. They need a big game from the scrum and lineout.

6 o'clock though on a Saturday evening should ensure a great atmosphere in Thomond and I think it just might swing it. Munster to do it but only by 3/4 points.

phog

Hard game to call, Munster coming into the game on a high after a good result against Glasgow but still with some silly errors/turnovers and we've lost TOD and Stander who were the stars of that game.

Delighted to see Coughlan back, hope he can stick the pace of the game but Butler will surely get some gametime anyway.

Saracens are 2nd in the premiership and while they have the lowest number of tries scored they also have conceded the least number of tries, lt seems they're winning their game from the boot, so discipline is important tomorrow.

This is a combined table of Premiership/League and H/Cup tables for both teams.

Team Pl W D L PF PA Diff TF TA TB LB Pts
Saracens 12 9 1 2 281 159 122 17 10 2 1 41
Munster 12 7 0 5 270 176 94 28 15 4 3 35


At the moment I don't know what my head says but my heart firmly says Munster

thomond2006

I'll only see the second half because of an exam. I'll be dreading walking into the pub and seeing an unfavourable scoreline!

CIARAN_BOYLE

Saracens

thomond2006 wrote: »

I'll only see the second half because of an exam. I'll be dreading walking into the pub and seeing an unfavourable scoreline!

On a saturday, poor you Thomond

Fireball07

Saracens

phog wrote: »

Hard game to call, Munster coming into the game on a high after a good result against Glasgow but still with some silly errors/turnovers and we've lost TOD and Stander who were the stars of that game.

Delighted to see Coughlan back, hope he can stick the pace of the game but Butler will surely get some gametime anyway.

Saracens are 2nd in the premiership and while they have the lowest number of tries scored they also have conceded the least number of tries, lt seems they're winning their game from the boot, so discipline is important tomorrow.

This is a combined table of Premiership/League and H/Cup tables for both teams.

Team Pl W D L PF PA Diff TF TA TB LB Pts
Saracens 12 9 1 2 281 159 122 17 10 2 1 41
Munster 12 7 0 5 270 176 94 28 15 4 3 35


At the moment I don't know what my head says but my heart firmly says Munster

In terms of points for and against, there's not much difference.

They average 23.4 for and 13.25 against.

We average 22.5 for and 14.67 against.

About 1 point in it either way, which in a single game is nothing. Obviously their win record is a lot more impressive and conceding 5 less tries is significant enough. But with that backline, you'd expect them to score more than they are doing.

Benny Cake

Saracens

Cold November evening: Check
Saturday 6pm Kick-off: Check
English Opposition: Check
Munsters backs to the wall: Check

Game on.....

DDC1990

Anton Pitout

In the last few years Munster have lost: Wallace, Quinny and Leamy.

They've also lost: Tommy O'Donnell, Stander, Ronan and Dougal this season through injury.

And still, they can put out a backrow of Dave O'Callaghan, POM and James Caughlan, with Paddy Butler on the bench.

The backrow talent in Munster is ridiculous!

phog

Just after winning two tickets to the game on Newstalk :-)

Very cold, calm dry day in Limerick, great day for rugby. Seems to be a decent crowd of Sarries supporters around the city last night and today.

Getting excited and nervous in equal measures.

phog

Heading out the door to Thomond Park, I hope the players aren't as nervous as I am.

C'mon Munster

Dubba

Is this on TV?

fguinan

Saracens

Dubba wrote: »

Is this on TV?

Sky sports 1

pappyodaniel

Saracens

phog wrote: »

Hard game to call, Munster coming into the game on a high after a good result against Glasgow but still with some silly errors/turnovers and we've lost TOD and Stander who were the stars of that game.

Delighted to see Coughlan back, hope he can stick the pace of the game but Butler will surely get some gametime anyway.

Saracens are 2nd in the premiership and while they have the lowest number of tries scored they also have conceded the least number of tries, lt seems they're winning their game from the boot, so discipline is important tomorrow.

This is a combined table of Premiership/League and H/Cup tables for both teams.

Team Pl W D L PF PA Diff TF TA TB LB Pts
Saracens 12 9 1 2 281 159 122 17 10 2 1 41
Munster 12 7 0 5 270 176 94 28 15 4 3 35


At the moment I don't know what my head says but my heart firmly says Munster

They don't score very many tries. We can beat this lot but our discipline will be key....I'm looking at you Peter!

GerM

Saracens certainly don't score many tries but that's partly out of choice. Other teams would go to the corner on occasion but Saracens are only interested in points on the board. They score a ridiculous number of three pointers. Their back line has plenty of line breakers in it though. Their three quarters are all players who have started test for England in the past 6 months. If Munster try to put width on the game, they'll need to do it with care because Strettle, Goode and Ashton only need one chance to punish any sloppy handling or passing.

Fireball07

Saracens

Nerves have kicked in big time. After a shocking performance from Sunderland, I'm relying on Munster to salvage my weekend...bad enough having exams without having a depressing sporting weekend. So:


COME ON MUNSTER!!!!!!!!

duckysauce

Saracens

this should be a cracker cmon Munster:D

budhabob

Saracens

Getting bloody nervous now. Perfect day for this match....also a great break in the study.

eyeball kid

Saracens

Come on Munster!

Anatidaephobia

Nervous now. Hopefully it'll be a good match.

Taco Corp

Munster win for me. albeit a small one.

Anatidaephobia

Sarries with a very poor start from the kickoff.

Fireball07

Saracens

Good start but poor pass from Murray

budhabob

Saracens

Nervous or poor from Murray there.

Fireball07

Saracens

We mess up our first lineout

Anatidaephobia

3-0 Munster.

Fireball07

Saracens

Good man ROG. 3-0

budhabob

Saracens

Great steal from DOC 2 there. He's started well. Good chase by earls.

Fireball07

Saracens

Superb turnover from DOC2. Clever from Murray

Fireball07

Saracens

Aw so close, the same move off the lineout. Murray should have held it, I think

Anatidaephobia

Munster looking lively so far. Almost!

Higher

Zebos fault or Murray's? I missed the replay

budhabob

Saracens

Big test for killer now.

davidpfitz

Nice attempted trip on Murray by the Saracens hooker (when murray made break through following lineout).

crisco10

hard to know. reckon Murray should have just held on...or put more legs on the pop to Zebo, it was a weak pop pass...

Fireball07

Saracens

Dangerous pass from Earls

Higher

Scrum not going well for Munster so far

Fireball07

Saracens

Penalty against Botha?

Fireball07

Saracens

Excellent stuff from DOC. Need a solid scrum now

Micky Dolenz

Box kicks should be banned.

crisco10

Decent run from Goode but the Munster chasing line was a bit disjointed for a first phase kick?

GerM

If that wasn't given for going off their feet it should have gone against POM for coming in completely at the side as blatantly as possible.

irishbucsfan

Just remembered I'd promised to go out tonight and I have to miss this. Ill have to do a lot of sketchy checking of this thread!

Fireball07

Saracens

Would want to be careful with the box kicks, if Goode is counter-attacking.


Farrell misses! Silly to concede 10 metres there though

duckysauce

Saracens

Murray getting stuck in tonite

Fireball07

Saracens

Another silly penalty